Potential 1st Round Foes: Bucks, Heat, Wizards

[Marbleheader]

There are 3 teams jumbled in the 6,7,8 seeds in the East. Washington has been on a little slide, Bucks and Heat are both 6-4 in their last 10.

The Celtics play the Bucks on Tuesday which will be a pretty good barometer.

Most recently, the Kyrie-less Celtics lost in OT against the Bullets. They were also without Jaylen that game but Morris put up 31.

Celtics haven't played the Heat since a 1 pt home loss just before Christmas.

The Heat have it pretty easy the rest of the way, including the Nets, Atlanta twice, Thunder, Knicks and last game against Toronto who will likely be resting.

The Bucks have Boston, Denver, Magic, Sixers, Nets and Knicks.

Washington has the toughest schedule, Rockets, Cavs, Celtics, Magic, Hawks, Bulls, Hornets.

Ideally, I'd like to see Miami and have Cleveland and Toronto square up against the other two.

However, with the way the schedule looks, I'm guessing Toronto gets Washington, Celtics get the Bucks and The Cavs get Miami.

 

[BillMuellerFanClub]

If I had a choice, I think I'd rather take my chances with getting the Bucks in round 1. While Giannis has put up pretty stellar stats against the Celtics, collectively they feel more or less one-dimensional. It also helps that, of all the injuries the Cs have suffered from, their front court is essentially in-tact. It might be another story if Monroe was first on the depth chart at the 5 and the odds of Antetokounmpo dropping a hundred points per contest were really solid.

My next pick would be the Wiz. Beal is a monster, but Wall seems to wilt against constant pressure. I like Larkin getting increased minutes and sticking to him in full-court press to wear him down.

The team I want to face the least is the Heat. That first-round matchup gives me night sweats.

 

[JCizzle]

I'm the opposite to Bill pretty much. The heat are who they are, but the wizards getting back Wall soon have a chance to improve dramatically. Giannis is the best player on any of the four teams (Cs, Wiz, Heat, Bucks), so I want no part of him either - even though you do make a compelling case for facing the Bucks.

My preference is Heat, Bucks then Wizards with the latter two being a tossup. I see the series going seven no matter who we face because of these injuries.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I'm the opposite to Bill pretty much. The heat are who they are, but the wizards getting back Wall soon have a chance to improve dramatically. Giannis is the best player between on any of the four teams (Cs, Wiz, Heat, Bucks), so I want no part of him either - even though you do make a compelling case for facing the Bucks.

My preference is Heat, Bucks then Wizards with the latter two being a tossup. I see the series going seven no matter who we face because of these injuries.

Yeah, I'd definitely prefer Miami. Best to face a no-superstar team, especially with the injuries. I want no part of Washington without Smart's defense on either Beal or Wall and Giannis is capable of taking over a series.

 

[Marbleheader]

Washington beat Charlotte today, Wall went 15/3/14 and Porter was 26/11/2.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Washington beat Charlotte today, Wall went 15/3/14 and Porter was 26/11/2.

Such a different team with Wall healthy and distributing. 5-9 over their last 14 while struggling with shot creation and a half court open look a rarity. Today, Wall returns to create tons of open catch and shoot 3's for Beal and Porter who combined to knock down 12 of 18 from behind the arc.

 

[Marbleheader]

Nets beat Miami in OT

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I don't think the C's will dispatch any of these three teams easily. However, I think we are looking at this wrong. I think neither the Giannis-led Bucks or the Wall-led Wizards are going to be happy facing Boston.

Beyond Antetokounmpo, the Bucks don't have a great number two player. Middleton as regressed from deep, Parker is still working himself back and Bledsoe (who had a monster game last night) is all over the map. The C's are deeper and better coached. And if Irving makes it back for the first round, the Bucks will have to play perfectly to beat Boston with home court.

Regarding the Wizards, they seem to be a tougher match-up for the C's this year but I would like to see how they do against the evolved/matured Celtics and Stevens 2-3 zone. My money is on Boston.

If this team makes it out of the first round with Kyrie back and gets Smart...plus...to return, watch out.

 

[TripleOT]

Miami is my preferred opponent, followed by the Bucks and Wiz.

Cavs a half game away from falling to 4th, with six games to go. Home games with Mavs, Raps, Wiz, at Philly, then away and home with the lowly Knicks. Philly s on a nine game win streak, and has seven left, at Hornets, BK, at Detroit, home with Cavs and Mavs, at ATl, and home with the Bucks.

 

[Kliq]

Miami all the way. They are by far the best coached unit; but feel like a collection of good role players that lack a star. They win enough games against teams during the regular season thanks to their discipline and depth; but a team with a bunch of solid pros does not win playoff series. Unless Dragic gets really hot they feel like a team that is going to struggle to put up points in the playoffs. They play slow and they are not a great offensive team; they remind me a bit of a knock-off version of the grit-and-grind Grizzlies; with better depth but no one near the caliber of Marc Gasol.

Milwaukee will have the best player in the series and I like their supporting cast more than others; their coaching situation is bad but a reality exists where Giannis just cleans us out and Bledsoe/Middleton/Parker can string together enough support.

Washington might be the best overall team out of three, but the Celtics matchup better against them than most teams. If Smart is healthy; he might be the best guy in the league when it comes to defending Wall. His strength and refusal to be screened really bothered him; I thought one of the reasons that series went seven was because Brad stuck Bradley on Wall for too long when Smart was the better option.

 

[Red Averages]

Seems like the ideal situation would be Tor, Bos, Phi, Cle, Ind, Mil, Mia, Was. With Bos beating Mia, to play Phi/Mil in round 2. Let Tor/Cle/Was/Ind battle it out for a few rounds.

 

[Marbleheader]

Washington resting Wall on the b2b losing to the Bulls at the half. Fully expect the tanking Bulls to lose though.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Washington resting Wall on the b2b losing to the Bulls at the half. Fully expect the tanking Bulls to lose though.

The Bulls are starting Markkanen and Lopez so they aren't really tanking. They waxed the Wall-less Bullets by 20.

 

[Marbleheader]

It's interesting, they drop from a 5.8% chance of a top 3 to 3.9% with the win. Jumps to 8.1% if they finished behind Sacramento. They must not feel like that was going to happen.

 

[Marbleheader]

Still Celtics-Bucks with about 6 games left.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Odds...

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

MIL gave TOR fits last season so would prefer they face TOR. I think I would prefer MIA over WAS as if we get WAS they are going to super-motivated from last season's loss.

 

[BigSoxFan]

MIL gave TOR fits last season so would prefer they face TOR. I think I would prefer MIA over WAS as if we get WAS they are going to super-motivated from last season's loss.

Washington is just better. Missed Wall for half the season and still have better record. I know Miami has given us trouble this year but I want them over Was/Mil by a good margin.

 

[Marbleheader]

Updated:


Pretty much even odds for the 7 spot

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I don't think the C's will dispatch any of these three teams easily. However, I think we are looking at this wrong. I think neither the Giannis-led Bucks or the Wall-led Wizards are going to be happy facing Boston.

Beyond Antetokounmpo, the Bucks don't have a great number two player. Middleton as regressed from deep, Parker is still working himself back and Bledsoe (who had a monster game last night) is all over the map. The C's are deeper and better coached. And if Irving makes it back for the first round, the Bucks will have to play perfectly to beat Boston with home court.

Regarding the Wizards, they seem to be a tougher match-up for the C's this year but I would like to see how they do against the evolved/matured Celtics and Stevens 2-3 zone. My money is on Boston.

If this team makes it out of the first round with Kyrie back and gets Smart...plus...to return, watch out.

Middleton may have regressed from deep, or it was just variance. Since the ASB, he's at a .406 clip. He's also a better overall player than he was a year ago. He gets miscast as a 3 and D player. Milwaukee, as a whole though, doesn't have many outside threats. They also seem to always under perform given the talent they have, but some of that is due to them always being injured. Middleton and Parker haven't been on the court together very often. With all that said, I'd still rather play the Heat or the Wizard than the Bucks. They have a superstar player capable of going off and beating a team by himself with a good supporting cast of players around him. Of course that also describes the Celtics.

I'd much prefer the Heat than any other team but I think the Celtics win any match up if they are fully healthy (minus Hayward, obviously).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Middleton may have regressed from deep, or it was just variance. Since the ASB, he's at a .406 clip. He's also a better overall player than he was a year ago. He gets miscast as a 3 and D player. Milwaukee, as a whole though, doesn't have many outside threats. They also seem to always under perform given the talent they have, but some of that is due to them always being injured. Middleton and Parker haven't been on the court together very often. With all that said, I'd still rather play the Heat or the Wizard than the Bucks. They have a superstar player capable of going off and beating a team by himself with a good supporting cast of players around him. Of course that also describes the Celtics.

I'd much prefer the Heat than any other team but I think the Celtics win any match up if they are fully healthy (minus Hayward, obviously).

Middleton was my 2nd round binky out of that draft as he was beating everyone off the dribble at the combine and in workouts......if he could only develop a 3-point shot after hitting 26% his final year at A&M. The miscast is due to his role in the Bucks offense along with his focus of becoming a good spotup shooter. All the work Middleton put in shooting made him forget what got him to the league in the first place. He's really putting it all together this season and having a great bounce back year after his dropoff last season.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Middleton was my 2nd round binky out of that draft as he was beating everyone off the dribble at the combine and in workouts......if he could only develop a 3-point shot after hitting 26% his final year at A&M. The miscast is due to his role in the Bucks offense along with his focus of becoming a good spotup shooter. All the work Middleton put in shooting made him forget what got him to the league in the first place. He's really putting it all together this season and having a great bounce back year after his dropoff last season.

He played 26 games last year after returning from an injury. Not sure it was so much a drop off as rust and recovery. He has definitely improved this year tho. He's pretty much improved every year, minus last season. He's one of my favorite non Celtics. There were so many good 2nd round picks that year. Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Jae Crowder, Kyle O'Quinn, Darius Miller. Some of those names are obviously not like the others but that's some tremendous value in the 2nd round.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The NBA could solve this whole jockeying for postseason opponent business very simply. Let the #1 seed choose its playoff opponent from any of the top 8. Then the #2 seed chooses from any of the remaining 5 teams, etc.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The NBA could solve this whole jockeying for postseason opponent business very simply. Let the #1 seed choose its playoff opponent from any of the top 8. Then the #2 seed chooses from any of the remaining 5 teams, etc.

I am restraining from going on a massive rant about the idea that teams are "tanking" or "jockeying"'by throwing games. It's getting out of control with it permeating down to the very casual fan insinuating that these games are fixed.

If teams were tanking, the Bulls wouldn't be playing Markkanen and winning 3 straight. The Magic just won back-to-back games this week. The Hawks came within a buzzer beater of winning back-to-backs. The Nets won in Milwaukee last night. I don't even know how teams could jockey for position two weeks from the playoffs when they don't even yet know whether they should win or lose.

This talk among hardcore fans has to stop as the negativity is seaping down to the casuals and they are spreading false rumors about the integrity of our beloved game.

Have a great day!!

 

[JakeRae]

The NBA could solve this whole jockeying for postseason opponent business very simply. Let the #1 seed choose its playoff opponent from any of the top 8. Then the #2 seed chooses from any of the remaining 5 teams, etc.

What are you talking about? I can't think of a single playoff team whose seed is still in doubt that has done anything other than just win games to the best of their ability (this is limited to this season, I'm positive someone can cite examples of a team in the NBA, at some point in the past, throwing their last game or two at least partially because of matchup considerations).

Independently, that fans of playoff teams become interested in the outcomes of games other playoff teams are playing in as the season winds down is a feature, not a problem.

 

[lovegtm]

What are you talking about? I can't think of a single playoff team whose seed is still in doubt that has done anything other than just win games to the best of their ability (this is limited to this season, I'm positive someone can cite examples of a team in the NBA, at some point in the past, throwing their last game or two at least partially because of matchup considerations).

Independently, that fans of playoff teams become interested in the outcomes of games other playoff teams are playing in as the season winds down is a feature, not a problem.

Your second point is correct, and a nice unintended consequence of the current system. I definitely watch Sixers games with more interest now, given the seeding implications.

For your first point, I don't think it's that people think teams are throwing games, it's more that fans feel a little gross rooting for their team to lose in order to get a better matchup. Allowing teams to choose their seedings wouldn't change how teams play or rest players(much), but it would make it easier for fans to root for the "right" thing, which probably has some value.

 

[JakeRae]

Your second point is correct, and a nice unintended consequence of the current system. I definitely watch Sixers games with more interest now, given the seeding implications.

For your first point, I don't think it's that people think teams are throwing games, it's more that fans feel a little gross rooting for their team to lose in order to get a better matchup. Allowing teams to choose their seedings wouldn't change how teams play or rest players(much), but it would make it easier for fans to root for the "right" thing, which probably has some value.

Again, I would challenge you to provide examples. What playoff team (even if just the fans) is actually interested in losing right now? Maybe Toronto was in that one game against Cleveland, but that's just about the only example I can think of.

Also, there are a ton of unintended consequences to allowing matchup choices that need to be considered. As a non-exhaustive list of things that I can think of without considering this for very long: First, it disincents low seeds from trying at the end of the season since there is no seeding to compete for. Second, it incents coasting from a team like Cleveland since there is no longer a risk of a brutal first round matchup. Third, it potentially punishes teams that suffer late season injuries. For example, say Boston hadn't been able to adjust to losing Kyrie and Smart. Toronto could very well decide to select Boston as their first round opponent because of the injuries to guys who were due back by the second round. Fourth, what do you do after the first round? Do you keep letting the highest seed pick their opponent? Do you fix the 1-4 bracket like it is now? That cycles back to the above points regarding injuries or it still leaves teams jockeying at the top. Reselecting each round would also give a huge advantage to the top seed, and the NBA really doesn't need to make it easier for top seeds to win. This isn't MLB, where playoff outcomes are like rolling dice.

In sum, not only is there not a problem with the durrent system, but the proposed solution would create lots of problems on its own.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I did not know that 2-way G Leaguers are not eligible for the playoffs. https://www.celticsblog.com/2018/4/5/17204502/clearing-up-the-boston-celtics-playoff-roster-options-kyrie-irving.

Because of that, the Cs are going into the first round with only Rozier and Larkin as their PGs unless they decide to cut someone and add Allen or Bird. Nader is obviously a candidate to be cut but I think the Cs will try to get through the first round without touching their roster.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

The NBA could solve this whole jockeying for postseason opponent business very simply. Let the #1 seed choose its playoff opponent from any of the top 8. Then the #2 seed chooses from any of the remaining 5 teams, etc.

And what if the 1 seed picks the 2 seed? So much for playing the regular season for home court advantage.

 

[joe dokes]

Front offices may tank, but players dont.

 

[Marbleheader]

Miami is the 6 seed with 2 to play - OKC and TOR

WAS is 7th with BOS and ORL left

MIL has 3 left : NYK, ORL, PHI

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Your second point is correct, and a nice unintended consequence of the current system. I definitely watch Sixers games with more interest now, given the seeding implications.

For your first point, I don't think it's that people think teams are throwing games, it's more that fans feel a little gross rooting for their team to lose in order to get a better matchup. Allowing teams to choose their seedings wouldn't change how teams play or rest players(much), but it would make it easier for fans to root for the "right" thing, which probably has some value.

This is a better point than the one I made.

And what if the 1 seed picks the 2 seed? So much for playing the regular season for home court advantage.

You are right about home court. To avoid that problem, team #1 would choose their preferred matchup between teams #5 to #8, team #2 would choose between the 3 remaining teams, and so on.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

WAS is 7th with BOS and ORL left

MIL has 3 left : NYK, ORL, PHI

MIL is 7th, 'Zards are 8th.

Our opponent is likely MIL, as WAS is in a free fall (lost 4 in a row). MIA has tiebreaker over MIL.

If all 3 teams tie, MIA would be 6, followed by Wiz, and then Buckos.

 

[benhogan]

Give me the Zards. Beat them with half our rotation on the IR, then watch that team implode this off-season.

In all seriousness, I want to see a healthy Rozier. He looks way off, not nearly as quick/active. Same with Larkin after his bout with the flu. Also give Morris a few games off, he needs to get his head screwed on right and stop this silly bickering.

Those three need to be playing like they were a few weeks ago for us to make a run.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Miami is the 6 seed with 2 to play - OKC and TOR

WAS is 7th with BOS and ORL left

MIL has 3 left : NYK, ORL, PHI

MIL beat NYK even resting Giannis so currently, it's MIA / MIL / WAS.

If MIA loses to OKC, they should end up as 7th seed but who knows what players will be resting in those season-final games . My guess is that maybe only 'Zards play full contingent and that's only because they need to get into some rhythm with Wall.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Miami with 2 to play - OKC and TOR

WAS with BOS and ORL left

MIL has : NYK, ORL, PHI

MIA loses to OKC. Heat are currently in 7th place. If all 3 teams tie, MIA will be 6, WAS 7, and MIL 8.

Heat are 2-12 over their last 14 road games. I'm rooting for MIA to be 7th.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Looks like Game 1 will be on Sunday per Keith Smith. The first time slot for Saturday is 3:30 and the Bruins play at 8:00.

 

[Red Averages]

Bucks it is. Winner would play Philly-Miami

 

[Gash Prex]

Why did the NBA alert say we are playing the heat?

 

[Big John]

It's Miami. The game 82s worked out well for the Celtics, with both Orlando and Miami winning.
https://stats.nba.com/playoffpicture/

 

[jmm57]

I saw that earlier, it still has Miami/Washington/Toronto at 81 games. I hope it's Miami somehow, but it looks like MIL.

 

[Big John]

Miami beat Toronto tonight and will finish with 44 wins. The Wizards lost to Orlando tonight and will finish 43-39. Am I missing something? Ah... Milwaukee (also 44 wins) must own the tiebreaker over Miami?

 

[jmm57]

Miami swept Mil I believe, so Miami is the 6 and gets Philly.

 

[Big John]

Miami swept Mil I believe, so Miami is the 6 and gets Philly.

Yes, just saw that.

 

[DJnVa]

EDIT: Nevermind