Post Season Poll

Will the Sox make the post-season?

  • Yes

    Votes: 239 63.7%
  • No

    Votes: 134 35.7%
  • Other

    Votes: 2 0.5%

  • Total voters
    375

E5 Yaz

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I wonder if it is a competitive advantage in NY for the the Sox to come out in what amounts to a disguise as the Belize City Bananas. OK, so they still have "Boston" on the front of the shirt, but if you're a Yankee fan that color is depriving you of your hatred of the sight of the "Red Sox" in your park..... so do you boo as loud? Do you laugh instead?
Do you mean in a possible WC game?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I wonder if it is a competitive advantage in NY for the the Sox to come out in what amounts to a disguise as the Belize City Bananas. OK, so they still have "Boston" on the front of the shirt, but if you're a Yankee fan that color is depriving you of your hatred of the sight of the "Red Sox" in your park..... so do you boo as loud? Do you laugh instead?

I'm trying to imagine something like fuchsia colored Yankees uniforms at Fenway Park - confusion is going to precede hatred with that, even with "New York" in bold on the uniform's front in whatever other colored lettering. It might be a good idea for this reason alone.
How often do the Red Sox wear shirts at Yankee stadium that say "Red Sox" on them? Or are you referring to the actual Socks, and I have idea what color socks they were with these ugly things
 

Rovin Romine

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Awesome to have a couple "relatively" low-stress wins against the Mets.

This weekend should feel like a playoff series against the Yankees. And with both teams having a day off before and after - expecting 4 hour+ games. Silver lining is that even with an epic gut punch and Yankee sweep - Red Sox can control their playoff ticket by sweeping the O's and Nats next week. With the M's and A's playing 4 more times and Yanks-Jays 3 times - there are some guaranteed losses for those teams.
Nice work with the table.

I think you're correct. The Yankee series is the key here. 2 out of 3 or a sweep will really cement their chances

If I had to pick a second team now it would be Toronto. The yanks have a tough row to hoe. And at this point, it's unlikely 2 of the 3 teams ahead of Seattle and the As will collapse while one of them streaks into a WC berth.

Here's an interesting thought. People have talked of the tiebreaker mostly in terms of a Sox detriment. But it could be a huge advantage. Every relevant club's last season game is on Oct. 3. Tiebreaker games (regular season) would be October 4th, with the ALWC game on October 5th. Tiebreaker rules: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules

So if the Sox get the first WC spot, and the Yanks and Jays tie, they'd play a single elimination game on the 4th, then the Sox on the 5th. As the Jays are currently 10-6 against the Yanks, that would happen in Toronto. Then the winning team would fly to Boston.

Low probability, but something to root for.
 

tims4wins

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Awesome to have a couple "relatively" low-stress wins against the Mets.

This weekend should feel like a playoff series against the Yankees. And with both teams having a day off before and after - expecting 4 hour+ games. Silver lining is that even with an epic gut punch and Yankee sweep - Red Sox can control their playoff ticket by sweeping the O's and Nats next week. With the M's and A's playing 4 more times and Yanks-Jays 3 times - there are some guaranteed losses for those teams.

Remaining Schedules
RED SOX MAGIC #'s:
7
7
5
4
23-Sep OFF OFF at Twins at Oakland Seattle
24-Sep Yankees at Boston at Twins at LA Angels Houston
25-Sep Yankees at Boston at Twins at LA Angels Houston
26-Sep Yankees at Boston at Twins at LA Angels Houston
27-Sep OFF OFF Off Oakland at Seattle
28-Sep at Orioles at Toronto Yankees Oakland at Seattle
29-Sep
at Orioles
at Toronto Yankees Oakland at Seattle
30-Sep at Orioles at Toronto Yankees Off Off
1-Oct at Nationals Rays Orioles LA Angels at Houston
2-Oct at Nationals Rays Orioles LA Angels at Houston
3-Oct at Nationals Rays Orioles LA Angels at Houston
Wait a minute, isn't the Sox magic number actually 8 for the MFY and Jays? 7 would mean a tie, which might mean a WC spot, but might also mean a 3 way tie.

Edit: also (assuming the magic number is 8), is it really accurate to say that the magic number is 8 given that the MFY and Jays have to play each other 3 more times? Forget Seattle and Oakland for a second. One of the Jays or MFY is guaranteed at least 2 more losses this year. So would it be accurate to say that the Sox magic number is 6, in that if the Sox win 6 more games, they are guaranteed a WC spot?
 

bob burda

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How often do the Red Sox wear shirts at Yankee stadium that say "Red Sox" on them? Or are you referring to the actual Socks, and I have idea what color socks they were with these ugly things
No - the idea is that the road Red Sox and MFY unis have a traditional appearance, the Red Sox recent blue tops uni notwithstanding, and a banana canary/yellow uni is defamiliarizing enough to reduce the hatred a fan would usually feel just at the sight of that opponent. In the same vein I will wager Patriot haters will hate more on a Pats team wearing Flying Elvis unis than when they wear Pat Patriot ones…at least for a while. With the yellow uni, it also helps that it looks ridiculous/ugly.
 

Red Sox Physicist

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Wait a minute, isn't the Sox magic number actually 8 for the MFY and Jays? 7 would mean a tie, which might mean a WC spot, but might also mean a 3 way tie.

Edit: also (assuming the magic number is 8), is it really accurate to say that the magic number is 8 given that the MFY and Jays have to play each other 3 more times? Forget Seattle and Oakland for a second. One of the Jays or MFY is guaranteed at least 2 more losses this year. So would it be accurate to say that the Sox magic number is 6, in that if the Sox win 6 more games, they are guaranteed a WC spot?
Yes, due to schedule, the magic number is 6 to clinch a WC spot. The RIOT project at SMU calculates the schedule adjusted numbers to clinch and avoid elimination.
 

Yo La Tengo

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So the Sox would really benefit from winning at least one game against NYY this weekend. With just one win, they'd qualify for a WC spot by going .500 against Baltimore and Washington.
 
If we're talking Magical Christmas Land scenarios, a three or four way tie for the second WC spot with teams needing to play multiple games and flying back and forth from the West Coast over a two day span would set the Sox up nicely.

EDIT: I've been thinking about preferred opponent. Seattle would be ideal, but I think that's very unlikely. Between Toronto and NY I'm torn but lean NY. Toronto is a much better team, and I am lucky enough to not carry the trauma that some of you do about single game Yankee eliminations. Losing to the Yankees would be awful, but eliminating the Yankees would be sweet.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But if the Sox play Toronto, the Yankees have already been eliminated.

Toronto is probably the better team, but I like the Sox chances against Robbie Ray better than I do against Gerrit Cole.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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But if the Sox play Toronto, the Yankees have already been eliminated.

Toronto is probably the better team, but I like the Sox chances against Robbie Ray better than I do against Gerrit Cole.
Robbie Ray vs Nate Eovaldi in the wild card game would be a grunt-a-thon that would make tennis players blush.
 
But if the Sox play Toronto, the Yankees have already been eliminated.

Toronto is probably the better team, but I like the Sox chances against Robbie Ray better than I do against Gerrit Cole.
Yes, and glorious YED will be a cause for joy whether it comes at the Red Sox hands or not. Still sweeter when the Sox drive in the last nail.

As to Ray vs Cole, I'm way less certain about it.

Ray: 5.75 IP/GS, 3.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.57 K/9 vs. Sox this year
Cole: 5.33 IP/GS, 5.06 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 14.06 K/9 vs. Sox this year

The Sox have seen Ray one more time, and for sure Cole is a scarier pitcher in a vacuum but the Sox have handled Cole much better so far this year aside from the K/9. The Sox generally have performed better against righties than lefties.

Toronto's lineup has 21 points of wOBA and .858 runs per game over the Yankees. Are the Yankees with Cole starting .858 runs better than Toronto with Ray starting? I'm not so sure.
 

wilked

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Despite the sweep, things are still quite favorable for the Sox. Various calculators have them 75-80% to make the postseason, with the Jays on the outside looking in. This is helped by the Jays/Yankees starting a 3 game series…someone has to lose at least 2 of those games.

6 games to go. 4-2 gets them to 92 wins which has been my mental “clinch” number. 3-3 or worse and you start getting down to tie breakers / etc. Last place Orioles up first, Tues-Thurs. 2/3 is mandatory, sweep ideal. Then last-place Nationals, win the first two and hopefully the last game is meaningless.
 

Rovin Romine

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Despite the sweep, things are still quite favorable for the Sox. Various calculators have them 75-80% to make the postseason, with the Jays on the outside looking in. This is helped by the Jays/Yankees starting a 3 game series…someone has to lose at least 2 of those games.

6 games to go. 4-2 gets them to 92 wins which has been my mental “clinch” number. 3-3 or worse and you start getting down to tie breakers / etc. Last place Orioles up first, Tues-Thurs. 2/3 is mandatory, sweep ideal. Then last-place Nationals, win the first two and hopefully the last game is meaningless.
Do they?

NY (89-67): 3 at TOR, 3 with TBR.​
BOS (88-68): 3 at BAL, 3 at WSN.​
TOR (87, 69): 3 with NYY, 3 at BAL.​

If you balance their records, in a sort of Worst-Sox scenario, NY and TOR could end up with 93 and 92 victories. That means the Sox would have to win 4 of the last 6 to tie someone with 92 wins, and win 4 of their last 5 to have a WC spot all to their own. How do NY and TOR do that Worst-Sox scenario?

92 wins for TOR means 5 wins in 6 games - e.g. at least 2 in NYY and all 3 TBR games, or a NY sweep and 2 of 3 against the Rays.​
92 wins for NY means 3 wins in 6 games - they can drop all 3 with TOR and win 3 in Baltimore. Obviously NY can win one of the TOR games to go up to 93, any more wins would be at the cost of pushing the TOR win total down below 92, which is good for the Sox.​
Both teams cannot win 93 games.​

92 wins for BOS means 4 wins in 6 games. (However, a 92 win tie for WC2 berth would be sort of disastrous.) If BOS wins 5 or more, it does not matter what Toronto or the Yanks do, since one of those teams would be at 92 wins or below. (Also the best SEA can do is 92 games - see below.)

TOR remains the low probability team to make the post-season out of the three current WC teams.

In lower probability outcomes. Seattle and Oakland are 2 and 3 games behind the Sox.
SEA has 3 home games v. OAK and 3 home games against LAA.​
OAK has 3 at SEA, and 3 at HOU.​
If SEA (86-70) closes with 6 wins, they end at 92-70.​
If OAK (85-71) closes with 6 wins, they end at 91-71.​

Again, BOS has to win 4 of their last 6 to tie this best-case SEA scenario, or 5-6 to nullify it. (Obviously, that changes day to day with any SEA losses.)


To look at it another way:

BOS, 6 for 6: 94-68 - in​
BOS, 5 for 6: 93-69 - in​
BOS, 4 for 6: 92-70 - worst case tie for WC2 with one game elimination game.​
BOS, 3 for 6: 91-71 - maybe out​
BOS, 2 for 6: 90-72 - maybe out​
BOS, 1 for 6: 89-73 - maybe out​
BOS, 0 for 6: 88-72 - maybe out. TOR could also go 0-6, while SEA could win 1 and OAK 2, then lose all their games, all three teams finishing at 87 wins. But BOS is likely out in this scenario, and the 1 and 2 for 6.​
 
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BaseballJones

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I'll just say this. After this weekend (always, really, but after this weekend especially), it would be SO sweet if the Sox somehow got in and beat Cole and the Yanks in the WC game. That would make this season all worth it.
 

wilked

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This is why I put clinch in quotes. If they go 4-2 (92 wins) they are super likely to clinch, ie 85+%. Your analysis is great though- very nice! 5-1 is ideal, but 4-2 should do just fine
 

Rovin Romine

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I'll just say this. After this weekend (always, really, but after this weekend especially), it would be SO sweet if the Sox somehow got in and beat Cole and the Yanks in the WC game. That would make this season all worth it.
I'd find it sweeter still if the Yanks went 0-6 and TOR and BOS blew by them. YMMV on that.
 

LynnRice75

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I am not sure if the day off today helps calm my nerves or makes things worse because I have too much time to run "what if" scenarios.
(What if we win this many, would I rather face the Yanks or the Jays or even the Mariners, what if Cora would have argued the dropped strike...)
I wonder how the day off affects the Sox players and coaches. Are they stressed? Confident? A bit too lackadaisical? Having chicken and beer?
Gonna be a crazy week.
 

dynomite

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I am not sure if the day off today helps calm my nerves or makes things worse because I have too much time to run "what if" scenarios.
(What if we win this many, would I rather face the Yanks or the Jays or even the Mariners, what if Cora would have argued the dropped strike...)
I wonder how the day off affects the Sox players and coaches. Are they stressed? Confident? A bit too lackadaisical? Having chicken and beer?
Gonna be a crazy week.
I think getting away from Fenway and anxious crowds, having a day off to clear their heads, and most of all seeing this putrid Orioles team lining up across the diamond tomorrow is a best case scenario. In terms of actual team stuff, Xander might have needed a day off after that foul ball yesterday anyway, and Richards, Brasier, and Ottavino can use a day off as well.

I know looking on the bright side is difficult to do after a sweep by the Yankees, but all this "deserve to be in the playoffs" stuff doesn't matter much to me. Let's win at least 1 more game than everyone else over these final 6 games and go from there.

And it does matter to me that if you'd told me in March that the Sox would go into the final week of the season in the 2nd Wild Card spot with a realistic chance to finish with the 1st Wild Card, I would have been thrilled.
 

OurF'ingCity

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And it does matter to me that if you'd told me in March that the Sox would go into the final week of the season in the 2nd Wild Card spot with a realistic chance to finish with the 1st Wild Card, I would have been thrilled.
Don't even have to go back to March, most people on this board were saying that like a month ago.
 

barclay

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Did not see the below posted anywhere (Mods feel free to omit or move if appropriate). I was curious and assumed others might be as well. All I can say about it is Good God Almighty, what a mess (from MLB.com)

Scenario: Two teams tie for the second Wild Card spot
If, for example, the Red Sox and Blue Jays tied for the second AL Wild Card spot, they’d have to play each other Monday, Oct. 4, for the right to advance to the AL Wild Card Game on Tuesday, Oct. 5. Home-field advantage would go to the team with the better head-to-head record (Red Sox, 10-9).

Scenario: Three-team tie for two Wild Card spots
If the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox were all tied, with no other non-division winners in the AL ahead of them, the three teams would choose/receive A, B and C designations. Club A would host Club B. The winner of that game would be one Wild Card club, while the loser would then play Club C on the road to determine the other. The winners of the two games would face each other in the Wild Card Game.
The three designations are decided by head-to-head records. The Red Sox went 10-9 in each of their season series against the Blue Jays and Yankees, so they would have the first pick of designation. The Blue Jays are also 10-6 against the Yanks, as of this writing, so they would pick second. The Yankees would get whichever designation is left over. The first selection comes down to a choice of playing up to two games (Club A) or taking your chances as the home team in a single elimination game (Club C).

Scenario: Three-team tie for one Wild Card spot
If, for example, the Yankees were in the top Wild Card spot and the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mariners were all tied for the second spot, the three tied teams would choose/receive A, B and C designations. Club A would host Club B on Monday, Oct. 4. The winner of that game would then host Club C on Tuesday to determine the second Wild Card spot. The AL Wild Card Game would be pushed back from Tuesday in this scenario.

Scenario: Three or four teams tie for one Wild Card spot
Now we’re talking. And as of this writing, this is still a possibility in the AL.
In the three-team tie, we’d have to have the three teams choose/receive their A, B and C designations, with Club C traveling to face the winner of the game between Clubs A and B to determine who advances to the Wild Card Game.
In a four-team tie, we’d have to add a D designation to the mix. Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D, and the winners of each of those games would then face each other in the home park of the winner of the game between Club A and Club B to determine who goes to the Wild Card Game.
Scenario: Four teams tie for two Wild Card spots
Oh baby. As of this writing, this is still mathematically feasible in the AL. If the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Mariners were to all wind up tied for those two spots, we’d have a mini-tournament on our hands. The clubs would choose/receive their A, B, C and D designations. On Monday, Oct. 4, Club A would host Club B and Club C would host Club D. The winners of those two games would be the Wild Card teams and would face each other in the ballpark of whoever had the superior head-to-head record.
 

AB in DC

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Amazingly, despite all the gnashing of teeth regarding the Sox being unable to beat good teams, the Sox would have their first pick of designations against all of these teams (head-to-head 10-9 v MFY, 10-9 v TOR, 4-3 v SEA).
 

BroodsSexton

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Club A, no? Obvious choice in a three way tie? Two shots to stay alive? Or do you just want to roll the dice with the loser, and take an extra day off to be rested?
 

wilked

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Club A, no? Obvious choice in a three way tie? Two shots to stay alive? Or do you just want to roll the dice with the loser, and take an extra day off to be rested?
Club A means you’re up 3–2 in the series, two chances to close it out

Club C means you’re coming back home for a decisive Game 7 and the other team has momentum

easy choice for me
 

VORP Speed

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Club A, no? Obvious choice in a three way tie? Two shots to stay alive? Or do you just want to roll the dice with the loser, and take an extra day off to be rested?
Depends whether it’s a 3 way tie for one spot or for 2 spots. If it’s for one spot, you take C, if it’s for 2 spots you take A.
 

YTF

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So the Sox would really benefit from winning at least one game against NYY this weekend. With just one win, they'd qualify for a WC spot by going .500 against Baltimore and Washington.
A little late to the game here, but this was how I felt heading into the series. Two out of three would have been great, but one win in that series makes it a one game gain for the MFY rather than three. Baltimore and Washington have the worst and sixth worst records in the league and it seems as though the final week couldn't have been set up any better. That said we now have to have to hope that the Birds and Nats don't play as though these final games against Boston are their World Series while looking for help from the outside and hoping to grab a spot while avoiding a playoff. There's a lot of shit in play here that might have been made easier by just one victory vs New York.
 

FFCI

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6 Days Left:
MAGIC #
7
5
4
2
28-Sep Orioles At Tor Yankees Oakland at Seattle
29-Sep Orioles At Tor Yankees Oakland at Seattle
30-Sep Orioles At Tor Yankees
1-Oct Nationals Rays Orioles LA Angels at Houston
2-Oct Nationals Rays Orioles LA Angels at Houston
3-Oct Nationals Rays Orioles LA Angels at Houston
Current: 88-68 89-67 87-69 87-70 85-72
Max Wins 94 95 93 92 90


Good News: Sox still control their playoff destiny and don't need outside help. 93 Wins is a guaranteed playoff spot (5-1); 92 is guaranteed playoff or play-in game(s) (4-2) and tonight 2 of 4 teams competing with Red Sox for a WC will lose.
 

Rovin Romine

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Club A, no? Obvious choice in a three way tie? Two shots to stay alive? Or do you just want to roll the dice with the loser, and take an extra day off to be rested?
Depends on how close the games are in time and your own pitching depth. There are two three-way tie scenarios.

For the 3 way tie for 2 spots scenario:
A - home game v. B, in or road game (with second string pitchers) v. C.
B - road game v. A, in or road game (with second string pitchers) v. C.
C - one day's rest, then home game v. A/B (with second string pitchers.)
Then the two winners play each other for the WC spot.

I think you have to go with C.

For a 3 way tie for 1 spot:
A - home game v. B, out - or home game (with second string pitchers) v. C.
B - road game v. A, in or home game (with second string pitchers) v. C.
C - one day's rest, then road game v. A/B (with second string pitchers.)
Then the WC game v. club D.

Again, I think you go with C.
 

Rovin Romine

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WED Sept 29 = 5 games to go.

Well, not the worst possible outcome, but not good.

1) Sox lost. They can still lose their way into a tie, or out of the post season all together. If they win 5 of 5 they still control their destiny. Best possible record is now 93 wins.

2) NYY won/TOR lost. This was the optimal outcome. TOR best possible record, (going 5 and 0 here on out) is 92 wins. Any more NYY victories in their remaining two games will depress that total. (Every TOR loss is another game the Sox can squander.)

3) SEA won. Seattle's best possible record (going 5 and 0 here on out) is also 92 wins. They're a weaker team than TOR, but they have an easier schedule. Both SEA and TOR play at home. Call it a push.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Posted in the game thread... but the discussion about the season being a "disappointment" a few weeks ago crept back into my mind last night. I know that the team has a better looking future than it did a year ago, but that's on the general organization, not this team. This group of guys that plays at the ML level right now.
If the Sox back into a WC game- which is what they are definitely doing- and then get unceremoniously dumped at the Toilet... it'll be a major disappointment. I don't know any other way someone could see that result. If they were fighting and scraping their way into a WC spot (like Seattle) and got beat in that one WC game, I would have been bummed out but at least proud that they were showing some resilience and urgency.
If the Sox back into a WC game but somehow find some magic and can beat the MFY (because, really... the WC will be at The Toilet. Those guys won HF advantage yesterday) then I'll feel much better about the team even if they go on to lose the next round- because honestly... they're just not good enough to go any deeper than that.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Can we define "back into a WC game" please? Because my understanding of backing in is losing more than they win down the stretch, but other teams losing more and giving them the spot. So backing in to a spot at this point means that the Jays and M's lose the same number of games as the Red Sox through Sunday. That seems unlikely. If the Sox don't win 3 or 4 out of the next five, they're probably not getting in at all. And if they do win those games and beat out the Jays and M's, they didn't back into anything.

Missing out on the wildcard at this stage, and certainly losing to the Yankees in the wildcard game will be disappointing. Still don't think it means the season overall was a disappointment considering nearly everyone's expectations back in March.
 

Rovin Romine

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the discussion about the season being a "disappointment" a few weeks ago
Still don't think it means the season overall was a disappointment considering nearly everyone's expectations back in March.
I don't mean to discount what either of you are saying, but there's already a thread for this. Why not continue the discussion of personal takes on disappointments/worth there?
 

BaseballJones

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WED Sept 29 = 5 games to go.

Well, not the worst possible outcome, but not good.

1) Sox lost. They can still lose their way into a tie, or out of the post season all together. If they win 5 of 5 they still control their destiny. Best possible record is now 93 wins.

2) NYY won/TOR lost. This was the optimal outcome. TOR best possible record, (going 5 and 0 here on out) is 92 wins. Any more NYY victories in their remaining two games will depress that total. (Every TOR loss is another game the Sox can squander.)

3) SEA won. Seattle's best possible record (going 5 and 0 here on out) is also 92 wins. They're a weaker team than TOR, but they have an easier schedule. Both SEA and TOR play at home. Call it a push.
It's actually bothersome that Seattle is back in the picture. Toronto should split the last two with NY and then sweep the Orioles, so they should finish with 91 wins.

Seattle only has four games left and let's assume they go 3-1 (though they're 9-1 in their last 10 so a sweep is possible). That would put them at 91 wins as well.

So Boston, currently at 88 wins, needs to get to 92, for all intents and purposes. That means 4-1 over the last five. Not easy, even though they're playing crappy teams. Because...baseball.

Eovaldi has to deliver tonight. Period, end of sentence. He has to. And the team needs to get its collective head out of its rear end and start playing good baseball. It might be very hard to do, but we've seen them flip the switch this year several times. Must begin tonight.

The rotation is set up at least so that Sale would pitch the last game of the season in Washington. And that would leave Eovaldi starting the WC game....if they can somehow (at this point) manage to get there.

Last night's loss was a killer. So was Sunday night against the Yankees, actually.
 

Rovin Romine

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It's actually bothersome that Seattle is back in the picture. Toronto should split the last two with NY and then sweep the Orioles, so they should finish with 91 wins.

Seattle only has four games left and let's assume they go 3-1 (though they're 9-1 in their last 10 so a sweep is possible). That would put them at 91 wins as well.

So Boston, currently at 88 wins, needs to get to 92, for all intents and purposes. That means 4-1 over the last five. Not easy, even though they're playing crappy teams. Because...baseball.

Eovaldi has to deliver tonight. Period, end of sentence. He has to. And the team needs to get its collective head out of its rear end and start playing good baseball. It might be very hard to do, but we've seen them flip the switch this year several times. Must begin tonight.

The rotation is set up at least so that Sale would pitch the last game of the season in Washington. And that would leave Eovaldi starting the WC game....if they can somehow (at this point) manage to get there.

Last night's loss was a killer. So was Sunday night against the Yankees, actually.
I'd agree that Seattle is a more than a dark horse at this point. (4 straight losses will do that.) Still have a ways to go, but the swinginess of short series puts a lot of uncertainty into the dynamic.

In retrospect, one of the most important series was the recent road sweep in SEA.

For a team like this one, on the cusp, every game matters - and has mattered all throughout the season. (Including the ones that were punted on travel days.) They may be set up to have their best foot forward against Washington, but IF the season goes down to the last few games, we might see Cora go to the bullpen more frequently and/or take an all-hands-on-deck approach. IF there's a tie and the team must weather two elimination games (tie, then WC) to go forward, their pitching is going to take a beating, and their post-season effectiveness might accordingly suffer.

One can say it's do or die with Eovaldi tonight. . .although TOR and SEA could also lose. And then we're a day closer. . .but with a greater propensity for handicapping ourselves in any post-season play.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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THURS Sept 30 = 4 games to go. Big Weekend coming up.

Well, we won last night, which is good and necessary. However, everyone else's outcomes preserved the possible set of playoff outcomes without change.

1) Sox won. They can still lose their way into a tie, or out of the post season all together. Best possible record is now 93 wins.
If they win 4 of 4 they still control their destiny.​
3 of 4 means 92 wins, putting them in a potential tie breaker with NYY/SEA/TOR. But it is possible other teams will lose, leaving the 92 wins as a non-tied WC slot.​

Upcoming games are @BAL (Pivetta), @WSN (E-Rod), @WSN, @WSN.


2) TOR won/ NYY lost. This was not the optimal outcome - TOR losing would have dripped their max win total to 91, as it is, it still stands at 92.
4 of 4 puts them in that potential tie breaker with NYY/SEA/BOS.​

Upcoming games are: NYY, BAL, BAL, BAL.


3) NYY lost/ TOR won. Again, this is not the optimal outcome for the Sox. NYY's best possible record stands at 94 wins.
4 of 4 controls their destiny.​
3 of 4 means they may face a tie for a spot - but if so, it would only be for the top spot with Boston.​
2 of 4 means they're (at worst) one behind Boston either alone or tied with one of the 92 possible win teams (TOR and SEA).​

Upcoming games are: @TOR, TBR, TBR, TBR. This is the hardest schedule by far.


3) SEA won. Seattle's best possible record (going 3 and 0 here on out) is 92 wins.
3 of 3 puts them in that potential tie breaker with NYY/TOR/BOS.​

Upcoming games are: Off tonight, LAA, LAA, LAA.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Boston has one thing going for them: H2H against Sea, NY, and Tor.

Bos is 10-9 against Tor.
Bos is 10-9 against NY.
Bos is 4-3 against Sea.

So no matter the H2H matchup, or even in group ties, the Sox have the tiebreaker advantage. Which might come into play.
 

staz

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The cradle of the game.
There will be exactly 14 more regular season games featuring at least one of: BOS, NYY, TOR, SEA. Given this, there are exactly 16,384 possible combinations of results.

After tonight, there will be 12 more such games and 4,096 possible combinations of results, and after Friday night, there will be 8 such remaining games and still 256 possible combinations of results.

So, a lot can happen. :)
 

bosockboy

Member
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Jul 15, 2005
19,863
St. Louis, MO
Boston has one thing going for them: H2H against Sea, NY, and Tor.

Bos is 10-9 against Tor.
Bos is 10-9 against NY.
Bos is 4-3 against Sea.

So no matter the H2H matchup, or even in group ties, the Sox have the tiebreaker advantage. Which might come into play.
That only comes into play for home field advantage yes? That doesn’t decide actual berths in case of ties.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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There will be exactly 14 more regular season games featuring at least one of: BOS, NYY, TOR, SEA. Given this, there are exactly 16,384 possible combinations of results.

After tonight, there will be 12 more such games and 4,096 possible combinations of results, and after Friday night, there will be 8 such remaining games and still 256 possible combinations of results.

So, a lot can happen. :)
New math is not your friend, my friend.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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That only comes into play for home field advantage yes? That doesn’t decide actual berths in case of ties.
Head to head determines home field advantage in a two-team tiebreaker.

In a three-team tiebreaker, overall winning percentage determines which team picks their A/B/C berths first. The particular berths do or don't have home field advantage.

From: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules

If one game is needed to break a tie for a playoff berth between two teams, it will be played on the Monday after the scheduled end to the regular season, hosted by the team that won the season series against the other. That applies to determining a division championship whether or not the losing team would still qualify as a Wild Card.

Home-field advantage is determined first by head-to-head records, then by the higher winning percentage in intradivision games. If a further tiebreaker is needed, it's the best winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games.

Determining Home-Field Advantage in Two-Team Tiebreakers
1. Head-to-head winning percentage during the regular season.​
2. Higher winning percentage in intradivision games.​
3. Higher winning percentage in intraleague games.​
4. Higher winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games.​
5. Higher winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game, provided that such additional game was not between the two tied clubs. Continue to go back one intraleague game at a time until the tie has been broken.​
Determining A, B, C Designations in Three-Team Tiebreakers
1. All Three Clubs Have Identical Records Against One Another
  • Club with highest winning percentage among three tied clubs in intradivision games chooses its designation, followed by the team with the next highest winning percentage in intradivision games. If any two of the clubs have identical winning percentages, then then the two-Club tiebreak rules will break that tie. If all three Clubs have identical winning percentages, then;
  • Club with the highest winning percentage in the last half of intraleague games chooses its designation, followed by the team with the next highest winning percentage in intraleague games. If any two of the clubs have identical winning percentages, then then the two-Club tiebreak rules will break that tie. If all three Clubs have identical winning percentages, then;
  • Club with the highest winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game, provided that such additional game was not between any of the tied Clubs, chooses its designation, followed by the team with the next highest winning percentage in the last half plus one intraleague game. Continue to go back one intraleague game at a time until the tie has been broken.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
If Oakland sweeps Houston, there’s a chance for a five-way tie.

EDIT: Forgot they play today. If Houston goes 0-4 from here, 5-way tie is possible.