Post Season Poll

Will the Sox make the post-season?

  • Yes

    Votes: 160 58.2%
  • No

    Votes: 115 41.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    275

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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The Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox are all tied with 62 losses. The next three weeks could be nuts. But I'd prefer if the Yankees simply lost every game from here on out and made it much less stressful.
Assuming full health and each team able to pick their preferred starter…. Which team would you rather face in a WC? I’d go with MFY’s. But…. If Sox are to lose… I’d prefer to lose to Toronto.
 

cantor44

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I'm expecting a .500 road record during this time. It's only a difference of one game but at this point it could be the difference between a WC spot/home field and not. I think/hoping after that energizing victory last night that they can hold that and use it to stay focused on the road.

Other highlighted point in your post has Sox tied with Jays. Who would get the home field in this situation? Looking at that tie makes me really hope for a .500 road trip
Sox won season series, so get home field if tied for first spot. (13)
 

E5 Yaz

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Red Sox 80-63 ... 1 game ahead of Yankees

Yankees 78-63

Blue Jays 77-63 ... .5 games back
Mariners 77-64 ... 1 game back
Athletics 77-64 ... 1 game back
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Red Sox 80-63 ... 1 game ahead of Yankees

Yankees 78-63

Blue Jays 77-63 ... .5 games back
Mariners 77-64 ... 1 game back
Athletics 77-64 ... 1 game back
I'd prefer it if the Sox were just running way ahead of this all for the no. 1 WC spot and the other 4 teams were in this competition for the no. 2 WC spot. But it's always a lot of fun when every game in September matters. Jays losing to the O's last night was shocking. A chance to jump the Yankees and into the no. 2 spot and they lose that momentum after sweeping the MFY's on the road. Mariners and A's both win. Crazy.
 

ookami7m

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The fact that the Sox have played 2 more games than the MFY/Mariners/A's and 3 more than the Blue Jays has to be in our favor a little bit right? We've got more off days down the stretch to hopefully manage the stress (barring any more of the team taking trips to the Covid IL)
 

scottyno

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The Sox have the 3rd easiest schedule in baseball the rest of the way, none of the other 4 teams they're fighting with have particularly easy schedules, and Oakland has one of the hardest.

We're going to be doing a lot of cheering for Houston and Tampa the rest of the way.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They could have won or lost all three of those games, but they lost two….and winning one of three is no way to remain in a pennant race. Now they have to go out west, and it seems likely that their top reliever is unavailable for a few days. Meanwhile, the Yankees get the Twins who haven’t beat them in decades; and the A’s get the Royals. Jays are hopefully slowed down by the Rays. Sox need a vintage E-Rod start tomorrow night and to win at least 2 in this series. Then sweep the O’s after that.
 

Harry Hooper

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This might be a different kind of stretch run for most MLB teams this year as they are back to playing something close to 162 games (unlike in 2020), and they don't have the huge September rosters of the past. Maybe averaging 1.5 wins out of every 3 games will be enough?
 

NYCSox

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Most of the postive post-season predictions would seem to hinge on this.

If we get the punching up Os, we're pretty much toast.
They'll miss Means but will get Akin who is pitching well.

I'm not ready to presume a series win let along a sweep over anyone at this point.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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10 seems like the target # wins to feel pretty good about the teams chances. Sox schedule is tougher than the Yankees until the two teams meet each other; while the Jays have to contend with a bunch of Rays games.

Yankees and Jays each have three with each other. Jays have six with the Rays, Yankees have three. But Sox really need to win the next few series before they face the Yankees.

After tonight, the Yankees next 10 are against the Twins (1), Orioles (3), Indians (3), and Rangers (3); while the Sox have Mariners (3), Orioles (3), and Mets (2) before the Yankees series.The Jays have the Rays (3), Twins (3), Rays (3), and Twins (4), and then the Yankees (3).

Sox need to win the next few series vs the M’s and O’s and at least split with the Mets. Assume the Yankees beat up on their opponents and hope the Rays, who really have the 1 seed all but locked up, beat up on the Jays so they don’t have to play them later.

This could be a pretty wild few weeks. A series loss vs the Mariners needs to be avoided…
 

cantor44

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I actually found some promise in these last three games against a strong White Sox team. I know we're well past tea leave reading time, BUT - the bullpen pitched well, and Pivetta looked good. The Sox offense was never at full strength, the roster still COVID depleted, and yet they were only outscored in the series by a single run ....

As players come back (with no more spread, let's hope), if Cora is willing to lean on his best guys instead of rotating in starts for the bench, I think they could well win 11-12 of their remaining games, which should get them in ....Lotta ifs ...
 

nattysez

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10 seems like the target # wins to feel pretty good about the teams chances. Sox schedule is tougher than the Yankees until the two teams meet each other; while the Jays have to contend with a bunch of Rays games.

Yankees and Jays each have three with each other. Jays have six with the Rays, Yankees have three. But Sox really need to win the next few series before they face the Yankees.

After tonight, the Yankees next 10 are against the Twins (1), Orioles (3), Indians (3), and Rangers (3); while the Sox have Mariners (3), Orioles (3), and Mets (2) before the Yankees series.The Jays have the Rays (3), Twins (3), Rays (3), and Twins (4), and then the Yankees (3).

Sox need to win the next few series vs the M’s and O’s and at least split with the Mets. Assume the Yankees beat up on their opponents and hope the Rays, who really have the 1 seed all but locked up, beat up on the Jays so they don’t have to play them later.

This could be a pretty wild few weeks. A series loss vs the Mariners needs to be avoided…
Worth mentioning that the Yankees are now halfway through a 20-games-in-a-row run. So while they are playing garbage teams, their bullpen is already shredded and is unlikely to get much of a break in the near term. As Lindsey Adler tweeted tonight:

View: https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1437242718816776203
 

grimshaw

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So the Yankees are 2-13 in their last 15 games.
The Sox at their worst had a 4-12 run.
The Rays have had a 5 and a 7 game losing streak, as well as 3-8 and 3-7 runs
The Jays have had a 6 game losing streak and a 4-10 run.

Proof positive that playoff worthy teams have stretches where they look awful and dead.
 
Last edited:

Humphrey

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'twould be quite helpful if the Rays don't go into another dip (which would be attributable to them having locked things up). 6 with the Jays, 3 with the Yanks. I'd much prefer that all 3 teams chasing them were more like 4 or 5 out instead of 9.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The Jays seem scarier than the Yankees and Sox….I think it would be in the Rays best interests to make sure they don’t make the playoffs. Given that the rosters are much smaller than in years past, I can’t imagine TB steps off the gas too much. It’s not as if they’re a team where the starters go 7 anyways.
 

dynomite

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What happens in a hypothetical 3 way tie for a 2nd WC? Or even a 4 way?
I just spent some time looking this up. I couldn't find specific rules from MLB about the 2021 season, because the 2020 "season" had all these funky COVID rules.

But here's what CBS says: two teams would play a one game playoff, and the winner would then host the 3rd team in another one game playoff.

Long story short, a three-team tie would force a mini-tournament to decide the second wild card spot. The three teams would be designated Club A, Club B, and Club C using a long cookbook formula (based on head-to-head records, etc.), then this happens:
  • Game 1: Club B at Club A (loser goes home)
  • Game 2: Club C at Game 1 winner (winner gets wild card spot, loser goes home)
You want to be Club C in that scenario so you only have to win one game to advance rather than two, though you do have to play on the road. Clubs A and B have to win two tiebreaker games just to make the Wild Card Game. MLB released the postseason schedule a few weeks ago and presumably tiebreaker Game 1 would be played Mon., Oct 4 with Game 2 on Tues., Oct. 5.

As for the bold prediction, let's say the Cardinals, Padres, and Reds will finish with identical 87-75 records, forcing the three-team tiebreaker. What happens after that is anyone's guess, though we'd get that little two-game mini-tournament to determine the second wild card spot. The winner would then have to play the second place team in the NL West in the Wild Card Game.
Link

Here are the (exhaustive) MLB Tiebreaker Rules from 2014.

Then there's what happened in 2018:

The 2018 National League Central tie-breaker game was a one-game extension to Major League Baseball's (MLB) 2018 regular season, played between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs to determine the champion of the National League's (NL) Central Division. It was played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois on October 1, 2018.

The Brewers won, 3–1, and became the top seed in the NL playoffs. The Cubs hosted the NL West runner-up Colorado Rockies in the NL Wild Card Game on October 2, with the Rockies winning 1–0 in 13 innings to advance to face the Brewers in the National League Division Series.[1][2]

The Cubs and Brewers ended the 2018 season tied for the division lead and the NL's best win-loss record at 95–67 (.586), thereby guaranteeing that whoever came in second would host the Wild Card Game two days later.[3] The tie-breaker was counted as a regular season game for both teams, with all events in the game added to regular season statistics.[4][5] October 1 also marked the first time two division tie-breakers had been played in a single season.[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_National_League_Central_tie-breaker_game#cite_note-6

Edit:

All this is to say, we could get the dreaded Sox/Yankees one-game playoff even if the Blue Jays run away with the 1st Wild Card. If the Sox and Yankees end up tied for the 2nd Wild Card, I believe we would play a one-game playoff at Fenway (because the Sox already won the season series) on Monday 10/4 on ESPN, followed by the winner playing in the AL Wild Card game in Toronto the next day. https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule
 
Last edited:

lexrageorge

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And, in a 4-way tie, there are 2 playoff games to determine the wild card team. The tie-breaker formulas do get complicated, but there is always a playoff to differentiate between division winners and wild-card teams, and there is always a playoff to determine wild cards vs. non-qualifiers, IIRC.

Also, in the event that the 2 wild card teams have the same record, the tie-breaker formula is used to determine the home team.
 

dynomite

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And, in a 4-way tie, there are 2 playoff games to determine the wild card team. The tie-breaker formulas do get complicated, but there is always a playoff to differentiate between division winners and wild-card teams, and there is always a playoff to determine wild cards vs. non-qualifiers, IIRC.

Also, in the event that the 2 wild card teams have the same record, the tie-breaker formula is used to determine the home team.
Could be a fascinating set of decisions if the Sox are a game ahead of the Yankees (or anyone) for the 2nd Wild Card on the final day of the season (Sunday 10/3). Do you go all out to beat the lowly Nats and avoid two consecutive one-game playoffs, or do you hold your starter/high leverage bullpen guys back, hope to win with your lower leverage folks and/or hope the Yankees lose?

Obviously we'll cross that bridge when we get there, and in the meantime let's just run away with the 1st Wild Card ourselves, yeah?
 

santadevil

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Could be a fascinating set of decisions if the Sox are a game ahead of the Yankees (or anyone) for the 2nd Wild Card on the final day of the season (Sunday 10/3). Do you go all out to beat the lowly Nats and avoid two consecutive one-game playoffs, or do you hold your starter/high leverage bullpen guys back, hope to win with your lower leverage folks and/or hope the Yankees lose?

Obviously we'll cross that bridge when we get there, and in the meantime let's just run away with the 1st Wild Card ourselves, yeah?
Emphatic yes. Terrible managing if they don't
 

cantor44

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I just spent some time looking this up. I couldn't find specific rules from MLB about the 2021 season, because the 2020 "season" had all these funky COVID rules.

But here's what CBS says: two teams would play a one game playoff, and the winner would then host the 3rd team in another one game playoff.

Link

Here are the (exhaustive) MLB Tiebreaker Rules from 2014.

Then there's what happened in 2018:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_National_League_Central_tie-breaker_game#cite_note-6

Edit:

All this is to say, we could get the dreaded Sox/Yankees one-game playoff even if the Blue Jays run away with the 1st Wild Card. If the Sox and Yankees end up tied for the 2nd Wild Card, I believe we would play a one-game playoff at Fenway (because the Sox already won the season series) on Monday 10/4 on ESPN, followed by the winner playing in the AL Wild Card game in Toronto the next day. https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule
Keep in mind that if there is a tie for the top WC spot, no extra is played, both teams make it and home field determined by the tie-breaker rules.
 

santadevil

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Cora will get shredded no matter what he does if this happens and they lose the WC game though
Ya, but you don't pull back hoping to keep guys fresh for one game, in order to play two.
Play hard for the better standing and only play the one

You can't win if you don't get there and you put yourself in a lot worse spot to get there if you need to play two win at all cost games

But we're still three weeks out, so I'm not going to worry about this until the final week
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Ya, but you don't pull back hoping to keep guys fresh for one game, in order to play two.
Play hard for the better standing and only play the one

You can't win if you don't get there and you put yourself in a lot worse spot to get there if you need to play two win at all cost games

But we're still three weeks out, so I'm not going to worry about this until the final week
I absolutely agree. The best scenario if this actually have to happen is that the offense destroys the nationals in the early innings so that sale can sit quickly
 

Rovin Romine

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Cora will get shredded no matter what he does if this happens and they lose the WC game though
If it's in your power to land a one game elimination slot, instead of a two slot, you have to do it. If you have to use your best pitchers in a tight game, so be it.

The borderline case is lifting your starter early with a lead, just so you can use your best bullpen arms in a row. Say it's Erod and he's cruising, up 6 in the 5th. At that point, there's no need to burn Whitlock for the 6th and the best of the rest 7, 8 and 9.
 

Al Zarilla

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The Jays seem scarier than the Yankees and Sox….I think it would be in the Rays best interests to make sure they don’t make the playoffs. Given that the rosters are much smaller than in years past, I can’t imagine TB steps off the gas too much. It’s not as if they’re a team where the starters go 7 anyways.
So the Rays may "try harder" against the Jays? I don't know.

Leave it to the two "_ay" teams to have near identical uniforms on tonight in Toronto. If you're casually watching, you can easily lose track of which team is which.
 

cantor44

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I've been remaining optimistic, holding on to hope with every fiber ... but ... I think .... in the end ... the defense is too terrible. Just too fatally terrible. It will sink them in the end.

For this pollyanna, Schwarber's booted ball tonight broke my naive resolve.

I voted no.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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They’re still in it but man it’s just slipping away here. Not optimistic.
It’s obviously not over mathematically until it’s over mathematically…. But losing one of the next two in Seattle will look pretty bleak.
That said, Seattle has a tough schedule ahead. Jays seem to be running towards the finish line.
I suspect whoever wins the WC2 will fall in backwards and be easily disposed of.
 

BaseballJones

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The Blue Jays are indeed red hot. 15-2 in their last 17. And they've manhandled some stiff competition as well.

3-0 vs Oak
4-0 vs NYY
1-0 vs TB

But I don't know that they'll keep THIS up. 18 games left for them. I can see them winning 12, but probably not continuing this current pace. It's just too much no matter how good a baseball team you are.

Nonetheless, they should be the WC1 when all is said and done.

That leaves Bos, NYY, Sea, and Oak scrambling for that WC2 spot.

I fear NY is about to heat up. They've been up and down all year. They went through a crazy hot stretch, and now are in a crazy cold stretch, but they play some weak opposition the next week and a half: 3 at Bal, 3 vs Cle, 3 vs Tex. I could see them going 7-2 over this stretch. They finish with 3 at Bos, 3 at Tor, and 3 vs TB, who won't be playing for anything but who won't just give up either. Everyone they throw out there is a quality player, it seems.

Oakland hasn't been playing well and they have a tough road ahead. 3 at KC, 3 at LA, 4 vs Sea, 3 vs Hou, 3 at Sea, and 3 at Hou. Houston might be in Tampa's situation, but again, they're not just going to roll over and play dead.

Seattle is 8-4 in their last 12 so they're playing well. 2 vs Bos, 3 at KC, 4 at Oak, 3 at LA, 3 vs Oak, 3 vs LA. Not easy.

As for the Sox...2-6 in their last 8, with a bunch of close losses (4 one-run losses). 2 at Sea, 3 vs Bal, 2 vs NYM, 3 vs NYY, 3 at Bal, 3 at Was.

So that's 9 games versus terrible teams (Bal, Bal, Was). I think they need to split the 4 games vs Sea/NYM, and at worst go 1-2 vs NYY. Then they need to go like 7-2 or 8-1 against those crap teams to be in position for the WC2 spot. That would get them to like 91 or 92 wins, which will be close.

It's going to be a pretty wild last few weeks, and tons of scoreboard watching I think. I predict the Red Sox fall just short, like a game or two out, but having a chance going into the last series.
 

JimD

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I have no idea what to expect. I'll always root for the Sox to win and go as far as possible and enjoy the fun moments along the way, but I just can't get that worked up if this year's team falls short. Just too many flaws - they probably wouldn't make it past the Jays in the WC game, and if they did win that one they'd get rolled by the Rays or Astros.
 

BaseballJones

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The thing about baseball is.... you never know. If they get in, crazier things have happened, and baseball just isn't the kind of sport where the favorites always win. Eovaldi and Sale pitch like they're capable of, and they can be in any series.

Just get there. Of course...right now, that's the issue.
 

bosockboy

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The thing about baseball is.... you never know. If they get in, crazier things have happened, and baseball just isn't the kind of sport where the favorites always win. Eovaldi and Sale pitch like they're capable of, and they can be in any series.

Just get there. Of course...right now, that's the issue.
Think 2006 Cardinals. It happens.
 

E5 Yaz

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Toronto has one WC locked up and I don’t see the Red Sox beating out both MFY and Seattle for the other spot.
The Jays have a one-game lead in the WC spot and eight games left against the Rays and the Yankees. They have nothing "locked up"
 

BaseballJones

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The Jays have a one-game lead in the WC spot and eight games left against the Rays and the Yankees. They have nothing "locked up"
Exactly. And they've gotten this one-game lead by going 15-2 in their last 17. Even if they play well they won't play THIS well. So they're due to slip a little.

I still think they're going to be in the WC, but by no means is this a lock.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Exactly. And they've gotten this one-game lead by going 15-2 in their last 17. Even if they play well they won't play THIS well. So they're due to slip a little.

I still think they're going to be in the WC, but by no means is this a lock.
I think Jays and Sox will wind up the two WC teams.

Sox have had some really bad beats lately though it seems - error allows Haniger to get up, and of course he hits a 3 run bomb
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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3 way tie for #1 WC. Pretty exciting to have this type of a race this late in the season, with Seattle and Oakland sitting just barely outside. I don't feel confident in making any picks but the Jays, despite the loss last night, still look to be the scariest of ALL the AL teams right now. Their poor first half performance can really be explained away partly by their lack of a consistent ballpark.
 

tims4wins

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Sox get an off day before each of the next 4 series. The only series they don’t get an off day before is the last series vs. Washington. It may not end up helping, but it sure as hell can’t hurt in terms of lining up both the rotation and the bullpen.

14 to go. I think they need to win 9 to make it.
 

bosockboy

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They have 6 guaranteed losses between NYY and Toronto by virtue of them playing 6 head to head. With that, our favorable schedule and the off days it’ll be hard not to get a spot.
 

tims4wins

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They have 6 guaranteed losses between NYY and Toronto by virtue of them playing 6 head to head. With that, our favorable schedule and the off days it’ll be hard not to get a spot.
Eh. They both have 16 games left. Say they split 3-3. That puts both at 85-67 with 10 other games. 6-4 gets them both to 91-71, 7-3 gets them both to 92-70. The Sox are at 83-65 with 14 to play. 8-6 gets them to the 91-71 mark, 9-5 gets them to the 92-70 mark.

I think 91-71 will potentially result in a tie for the 2nd WC slot. I think 92 wins gets them into the one game playoff.

Anything can of course happen.

Edit the best outcome for the Sox is one of Toronto or the MFY taking 4+ games out of the 6. A split would be bad.