Post Season Poll

Will the Sox make the post-season?

  • Yes

    Votes: 160 58.2%
  • No

    Votes: 115 41.8%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    275

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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In the "Will the real Red Sox please stand up" thread, we've discussed over and under achievement, baseline play, and kicked about the "worth" of the team.

As of today, there are 21 games remaining over 26 days.

The Sox occupy the second WC position for the AL, but there is no chance they will win the division (now 10 games behind TB.) The Yanks are .5 games up on the Sox in the first slot. Toronto is 2 behind, Seattle 3, Oakland 3.5.

These are the remaining series:
TB - 1​
CHW - 3​
SEA - 3​
BAL - 3​
NYM - 2​
NYY - 3​
BAL - 3​
WSN - 3​

Nine games against sub .500 teams in BAL and WSN. Eleven against + .500 teams. Six against potential WC rivals.

Covid impact began Aug 27th, with E.Hernandez and Arroyo put on the 10 day. It is ongoing, but their record on the 27th forward is: 6-6. It's entirely possible the Sox would be able to have all their Covid + players back by mid-September. Unfortunately, they must play 7 games against good opponents before a 3 game stretch in Baltimore.


So.

Do the Sox make the Post-Season this year?
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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May 19, 2010
1,123
I will be optimistic and vote yes but the result of today's game will probably have a large impact on how I feel going forward. Getting swept heading out on this critical road trip would likely cause me to switch my vote.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
3,409
I said yes… 2nd WC spot. I think Toronto continues their hot streak and bulldozes their way to the WC 1 spot
 

LogansDad

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Nov 15, 2006
19,962
Alamogordo
I said no. The teams around them (aside from the Yankees, currently) are playing too well heading into the stretch, and seem to be playing with a lot more energy. I think it's going to be Seattle and Toronto for the two Wild Card spots.

There's a lot of encouraging signs for this team going forward, and I honestly don't think missing the playoffs makes this year a lost season or anything, but Chaim has a lot of work to do to turn this team back into a "dynasty".
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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Mar 14, 2006
6,448
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I voted no. If you'd asked me a week ago my answer would have been a resounding yes. Just a sloppy team playing uninspired baseball and that's not a winning recipe in September.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Jul 15, 2005
9,187
Gallows Hill
I voted yes but only because NY and Seattle are playing poorly as well. Had Seattle hung on to win last night, I would have voted no.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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I think there's a degree of uncertainty here - I could see the team getting in, I could see them falling short.

BS Envelope speculaton:

TB - 0-1
Eovaldi loss​
Day off
CHW - 3 1-2
Houck: loss​
Pivetta-sub: loss​
Sale: win​
SEA - 3 2-1
Erod: win​
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: loss​
Day off
BAL - 3 2-1
Pivetta-sub: loss​
Sale: win​
Erod: win​
Day off
NYM - 2 1-1
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: loss​
Day off
NYY - 3 1-2
Pivetta (back): win​
Sale: loss​
Erod: loss​
Day off
BAL - 3 3-0
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: win​
Pivetta: win​
WSN - 3 3-0
Sale: win​
Erod: win​
Eovaldi: win​
Sale: 4-1, Erod 3-1, Eovaldi 4-1, Houck 1-3, Piv-and-sub: 2-2.​
Total: 13-8​
Final record: 92-70​
BUT replace the Erod and Eovaldi starts v. Seattle with losses, and it's 90-72.​
If anyone wants to copy and refine, please do.​
 

nattysez

Member
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Sep 30, 2010
5,648
The Sox needed to go 5-4 over the 9 game crucible of 3 v. TB, 3@SEA, 3@CWS. They are currently 0-2. If they hit 5-4 or even 4-5, I think they'll sneak their way in. If not, I think they're done.

Some additional thoughts:
(1) if the A's roll over for the Mariners (the teams play 7 more games), then the Mariners have a very easy schedule the rest of the way (D'Backs, Royals and Angels) aside from their series with the Sox. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the A's will play the Mariners tough, which is going to make things hard for the M's.
(2) the MFY play bad teams for a couple of weeks starting on Friday, but then finish with 3 each against the Sox, Jays and Rays. If the MFY beat up the bad teams, they can build a lead after this Jays series and hang on dear life for those last 9 games.
(3) the Jays have 6 left with the Rays and 5 with the MFY. Worse, by my count, they have 25 games left over 26 days to wrap up the year. It's hard to believe their relief pitching is going to hold up over that kind of run. But they are playing well and may be able to afford a couple of losses where they let their best relievers rest.
(4) the A's are done -- they have 7 left with the Mariners and 6 left with Houston.

My bet is that the Jays and MFY wind up #1 and #2 in the WC.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think they will, but these series against the Mariners and White Sox will clarify the picture quite a bit.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
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Miami (oh, Miami!)
The Sox needed to go 5-4 over the 9 game crucible of 3 v. TB, 3@SEA, 3@CWS. They are currently 0-2. If they hit 5-4 or even 4-5, I think they'll sneak their way in. If not, I think they're done.

Some additional thoughts:
(1) if the A's roll over for the Mariners (the teams play 7 more games), then the Mariners have a very easy schedule the rest of the way (D'Backs, Royals and Angels) aside from their series with the Sox. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the A's will play the Mariners tough, which is going to make things hard for the M's.
(2) the MFY play bad teams for a couple of weeks starting on Friday, but then finish with 3 each against the Sox, Jays and Rays. If the MFY beat up the bad teams, they can build a lead after this Jays series and hang on dear life for those last 9 games.
(3) the Jays have 6 left with the Rays and 5 with the MFY. Worse, by my count, they have 25 games left over 26 days to wrap up the year. It's hard to believe their relief pitching is going to hold up over that kind of run. But they are playing well and may be able to afford a couple of losses where they let their best relievers rest.
(4) the A's are done -- they have 7 left with the Mariners and 6 left with Houston.

My bet is that the Jays and MFY wind up #1 and #2 in the WC.
When forecasting, we should remember the final-week resting and tuneup that clinched teams sometimes do.

Houston finishes with a lot of OAK games. I'm not sure they bring their A-squad to each one. Ultimately, it's still a tough row for the A's to hoe.
The CWS don't play anyone in the hunt during their final games.
The Rays have that final 3 game series agains the Yanks. I don't see them burning their best arms.

Overall, I'd agree with you. The Jays and Mariners have a good chance to play themselves into contention.
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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Aug 18, 2010
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Connecticut
I voted no. The Red Sox are not playing like a very good baseball team right now. Granted I only watch the Red Sox games, so the only thing I know about the yankees, A's , Mariners and Blue Jays is their last scores. For all I know they may all be worse than the Sox, but my instinct is that it will be a Red Soxless October.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
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When forecasting, we should remember the final-week resting and tuneup that clinched teams sometimes do.

Houston finishes with a lot of OAK games. I'm not sure they bring their A-squad to each one. Ultimately, it's still a tough row for the A's to hoe.
The CWS don't play anyone in the hunt during their final games.
The Rays have that final 3 game series agains the Yanks. I don't see them burning their best arms.

Overall, I'd agree with you. The Jays and Mariners have a good chance to play themselves into contention.
I wonder how much the resting/tune-up stuff will be affected by the smaller rosters. In the past, clinched teams had up to 40 players to use so they could run a lineup of mostly scrubs or use 5-6 pitchers that weren't going to be on the post-season roster. That's less the case now. Add in the three off-days between the last game of the season and the ALDS and I can see the division winning teams treating the last weekend a bit more business as usual than in the past. Still might not lead to them going all out to try to win those games, but they'll probably be more competitive than teams in a similar position a decade ago.

Or maybe I'm just trying to find some silver linings, especially for that Rays-Yanks series.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
5,648
When forecasting, we should remember the final-week resting and tuneup that clinched teams sometimes do.

Houston finishes with a lot of OAK games. I'm not sure they bring their A-squad to each one. Ultimately, it's still a tough row for the A's to hoe.
The CWS don't play anyone in the hunt during their final games.
The Rays have that final 3 game series agains the Yanks. I don't see them burning their best arms.

Overall, I'd agree with you. The Jays and Mariners have a good chance to play themselves into contention.
This is a fair point. The Rays have all but clinched the best record in the AL, so they can afford to rest some guys. Am I right that the better record between the CWS and Houston gets home field for their series? If so, those two teams are close in the standings, so Houston may not want to take its foot off the pedal.
 

Manramsclan

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Jul 14, 2005
2,897
I voted No.

The lack of reliable bullpen anything besides Whitlock and poor defense is the dagger here.
 

Sin Duda

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Jul 16, 2005
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(B)Austin Texas
Can anyone tell me what's going on with the Yankees? In August, it looked like they'd never lose again, but now a treading water Red Sox team is gaining on them. What is their likelihood of retaining a WC spot? Wassup?
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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I wonder how much the resting/tune-up stuff will be affected by the smaller rosters. In the past, clinched teams had up to 40 players to use so they could run a lineup of mostly scrubs or use 5-6 pitchers that weren't going to be on the post-season roster. That's less the case now. Add in the three off-days between the last game of the season and the ALDS and I can see the division winning teams treating the last weekend a bit more business as usual than in the past. Still might not lead to them going all out to try to win those games, but they'll probably be more competitive than teams in a similar position a decade ago.

Or maybe I'm just trying to find some silver linings, especially for that Rays-Yanks series.
Very true. I think there are two main (and perhaps opposed) strategies re: players looking at 3 days off. 1) you want to give them rest. 2) you want to keep them in their regular habits.

So, during a clinching week, I'd expect rest for regular field players who weren't chasing numbers.

Maybe you have your best starter throw their last game 5 days before the ALDS, so they're in their regular mode/habits, or 6 to get them an extra day's rest if they respond to that. Maybe they're capped at 75 pitches or something, but in any event, maybe you see a team's 1/2 (and 3rd?) starters in the last 3 games of the season. Likewise, a team might want to rotate their entire bullpen through some of the final games, but more to keep the regular arm usage up, as opposed to asking guys for extra outs and the like. I'd expect anything funky, like a rain delay, to be approached hyper-conservatively.

So there still might be good players on the field, but they might not being aggressively managed to coax an extra win. (Unless it's potentially their twentieth win or something.)
 

donutogre

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Jul 20, 2005
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Philadelphia
I voted yes, even though I've been very pessimistic about the team for the last two months. The atrocious defense and super-shaky pitching has taken any sense of momentum away from this team, and I don't see a great answer to those issues. I think their first half was hot enough that they'll sneak in, but I would be shocked if they got past the play-in game. If they did, I could see a 2005 or 2009-style sweep happening.
 

E5 Yaz

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Games remaining

Yankees 24
Red Sox 21
Blue Jays 25
Mariners 23
A's 24
 

GlucoDoc

lurker
Dec 19, 2005
40
I voted no because I think there is too much downward momentum, particularly against the good teams (a couple of wins last week in Tampa not withstanding) for them not to sink further. But as has been said by a few others, this was not a lost year. It was (the first half, primarily) very entertaining, and I think Chaim did a good job building for the future. I don't think him selling off the farm would have changed much (COVID issues now) and we have a good foundation of players new this year to build upon for next year.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
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Mar 11, 2007
3,409
I think there's a degree of uncertainty here - I could see the team getting in, I could see them falling short.

BS Envelope speculaton:

TB - 0-1
Eovaldi loss​
Day off
CHW - 3 1-2
Houck: loss​
Pivetta-sub: loss​
Sale: win​
SEA - 3 2-1
Erod: win​
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: loss​
Day off
BAL - 3 2-1
Pivetta-sub: loss​
Sale: win​
Erod: win​
Day off
NYM - 2 1-1
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: loss​
Day off
NYY - 3 1-2
Pivetta (back): win​
Sale: loss​
Erod: loss​
Day off
BAL - 3 3-0
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: win​
Pivetta: win​
WSN - 3 3-0
Sale: win​
Erod: win​
Eovaldi: win​
Sale: 4-1, Erod 3-1, Eovaldi 4-1, Houck 1-3, Piv-and-sub: 2-2.​
Total: 13-8​
Final record: 92-70​
BUT replace the Erod and Eovaldi starts v. Seattle with losses, and it's 90-72.​
If anyone wants to copy and refine, please do.​
I'm betting that they split the upcoming road series but win tonight's Eovaldi game vs Tampa.
No ... they don't
Yes, you are correct!!!
 

grimshaw

Member
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May 16, 2007
3,708
Portland
I think they do. I've been going with 92 wins being enough for a while now, and I think that's about where they'll end up.

They are playing the White Sox at the right time, and I'm not sure the Mariners can hang with the big boys. Hopefully they are at full strength in a week.
 

Max Power

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Jul 20, 2005
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I voted yes, even though I've been very pessimistic about the team for the last two months. The atrocious defense and super-shaky pitching has taken any sense of momentum away from this team, and I don't see a great answer to those issues. I think their first half was hot enough that they'll sneak in, but I would be shocked if they got past the play-in game. If they did, I could see a 2005 or 2009-style sweep happening.
Getting Kike back in center, Xander at short, and Arroyo at second should improve the defense from atrocious to merely bad.

I still think they make the playoffs. Seattle and Oakland aren't going to be able to keep pace, so they just need to finish in front of the Yankees or Blue Jays. Being 2 games up on Toronto makes it a little better than a coin flip.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
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Apr 23, 2010
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I'm optimistically going with yes. They're likely going to exceed my mid 80's prediction for wins before the season. I think they'll be more like 88-90, which should sneak them in. Can even see them winning the WC game, if pitching lines up for Sale or Evo. But it ends there.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
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Mar 11, 2007
3,409
I'm optimistically going with yes. They're likely going to exceed my mid 80's prediction for wins before the season. I think they'll be more like 88-90, which should sneak them in. Can even see them winning the WC game, if pitching lines up for Sale or Evo. But it ends there.
Yeah... Sale in a one game playoff even pitching in a hostile environment will give me a pretty good feeling for a victory. Five game series I think they can hang with anyone.
In a 7 game series, I don't see the Sox able to hang with the Blue Jays or the Astros. Even though the Rays will likely have home field, they still feel like a team built for the marathon but not the sprint of the playoffs so they don't scare me as much in a 7 game. Yankees, White Sox, A's and Mariners I think the Sox would be able to handle.
Obviously any of these are pending which Sox team shows up.... the one that seemed focused and able to scratch out a victory or the one that seems to drop a turd and mistake it for a HR
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
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I'm optimistically going with yes. They're likely going to exceed my mid 80's prediction for wins before the season. I think they'll be more like 88-90, which should sneak them in. Can even see them winning the WC game, if pitching lines up for Sale or Evo. But it ends there.
How do we know we won't have used those guys in games 161 and 162 to simply qualify for the play-in?
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Sox are 10-8 since getting swept in the Bronx a few weeks ago. They have 21 games left; 11-10 is probably good enough to secure a berth. It’s far from a sure thing, but I think they get it done.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
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The Jays have 3-4 extra games to play relative to everyone else. I’m aware they have a doubleheader this weekend in Baltimore; are any other make-ups scheduled?
 

YTF

Member
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When forecasting, we should remember the final-week resting and tuneup that clinched teams sometimes do.

Houston finishes with a lot of OAK games. I'm not sure they bring their A-squad to each one. Ultimately, it's still a tough row for the A's to hoe.
The CWS don't play anyone in the hunt during their final games.
The Rays have that final 3 game series agains the Yanks. I don't see them burning their best arms.

Overall, I'd agree with you. The Jays and Mariners have a good chance to play themselves into contention.
One thing to keep in mind about teams resting players heading into playoffs is that the 28 man rosters will somewhat lessen that ability.
 

cantor44

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Dec 23, 2020
698
Chicago, IL
Copy and refine with more BS envelope speculation:

TB - 1-0
Eovaldi win

Day off
CHW - 3 1-2
Houck: loss
Pivetta-sub: loss
Sale: win
SEA - 3 1-2
Erod: loss
Eovaldi: win
Houck: loss
Day off
BAL - 3 2-1
Pivetta-sub: loss
Sale: win
Erod: win
Day off
NYM - 2 2-0
Eovaldi: win
Houck: win
Day off
NYY - 3 2-1
Pivetta (back): loss
Sale: win
Erod: win
Day off
BAL - 3 3-0
Eovaldi: win
Houck: win
Pivetta: win
WSN - 3 2-1
Sale: win
Erod: win
TBD: lose

If Red Sox a game ahead of Tor or NY going into last day, they are guaranteed first wild card spot vs either according to tie breaking rules, so they could sit Eovaldi and save him for WC game, as it becomes a meaningless game for them ...

Sale: 4-0, Erod 3-1, Eovaldi 4-0, Houck 2-2, Piv-and-sub:1-3, starter TBD 0-1
Total: 14-7
Final record: 93-69, which gets them in.

Other envelope speculation:
NYY: 92-70, TOR: 93-69, SEA: 90-72, OAK: 89-73.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
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Mar 11, 2007
3,409
Copy and refine with more BS envelope speculation:

TB - 1-0
Eovaldi win

Day off
CHW - 3 1-2
Houck: loss
Pivetta-sub: loss
Sale: win
SEA - 3 1-2
Erod: loss
Eovaldi: win
Houck: loss

Day off
BAL - 3 2-1
Pivetta-sub: loss
Sale: win
Erod: win
Day off
NYM - 2 2-0
Eovaldi: win
Houck: win
Day off
NYY - 3 2-1
Pivetta (back): loss
Sale: win
Erod: win
Day off
BAL - 3 3-0
Eovaldi: win
Houck: win
Pivetta: win
WSN - 3 2-1
Sale: win
Erod: win
TBD: lose

If Red Sox a game ahead of Tor or NY going into last day, they are guaranteed first wild card spot vs either according to tie breaking rules, so they could sit Eovaldi and save him for WC game, as it becomes a meaningless game for them ...

Sale: 4-0, Erod 3-1, Eovaldi 4-0, Houck 2-2, Piv-and-sub:1-3, starter TBD 0-1
Total: 14-7
Final record: 93-69, which gets them in.

Other envelope speculation:
NYY: 92-70, TOR: 93-69, SEA: 90-72, OAK: 89-73.
I'm expecting a .500 road record during this time. It's only a difference of one game but at this point it could be the difference between a WC spot/home field and not. I think/hoping after that energizing victory last night that they can hold that and use it to stay focused on the road.

Other highlighted point in your post has Sox tied with Jays. Who would get the home field in this situation? Looking at that tie makes me really hope for a .500 road trip
 

BroodsSexton

Member
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Feb 4, 2006
10,255
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I think there's a degree of uncertainty here - I could see the team getting in, I could see them falling short.

BS Envelope speculaton:

TB - 0-1
Eovaldi loss​
Day off
CHW - 3 1-2
Houck: loss​
Pivetta-sub: loss​
Sale: win​
SEA - 3 2-1
Erod: win​
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: loss​
Day off
BAL - 3 2-1
Pivetta-sub: loss​
Sale: win​
Erod: win​
Day off
NYM - 2 1-1
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: loss​
Day off
NYY - 3 1-2
Pivetta (back): win​
Sale: loss​
Erod: loss​
Day off
BAL - 3 3-0
Eovaldi: win​
Houck: win​
Pivetta: win​
WSN - 3 3-0
Sale: win​
Erod: win​
Eovaldi: win​
Sale: 4-1, Erod 3-1, Eovaldi 4-1, Houck 1-3, Piv-and-sub: 2-2.​
Total: 13-8​
Final record: 92-70​
BUT replace the Erod and Eovaldi starts v. Seattle with losses, and it's 90-72.​
If anyone wants to copy and refine, please do.​
This looks an awful lot like a Manila Metric analysis. RIP.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
3,409
Just saw that Yankees and Jays finish the season in a 2 game matchup. It’d be fantastic fate for them to have them tied heading into that series tied and be the determining games to clinch the final WC spot… splitting the 2 games and have to play a Play-in game. That would be played in a “neutral park”, yes?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
14,906
Maine
Just saw that Yankees and Jays finish the season in a 2 game matchup. It’d be fantastic fate for them to have them tied heading into that series tied and be the determining games to clinch the final WC spot… splitting the 2 games and have to play a Play-in game. That would be played in a “neutral park”, yes?
??

The Yankees finish the season with three in the Bronx against Tampa while the Jays are at home against the Orioles. If somehow they end the season tied for the second wildcard, their play in game would be in Toronto or the Bronx depending on the head-to-head record. Currently the Jays are up 9-6 for the season with four games left to play. One win for them would lock in hosting duties in that scenario.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
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Oct 31, 2013
40,790
I'm not as optimistic as I should be re: the Nats and Mets games.

I am more optimistic than I should be v. MFY, CHW and SEA games
 

pokey_reese

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
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Jun 25, 2008
15,054
Eugene, OR
20 games remaining for the Sox. There are really just five teams in the running for two wild card spots (BOS, NYY, TOR, OAK, SEA), with none of them likely to take over their respective divisions. Sox have a half-game lead going into this final stretch, and are playing three of the other four teams in the running, so their fate is definitely in their own hands. They also have six of those remaining games against the Os, and even .500 ball gets them to 90 wins, which could potentially be enough. Plus, the Covid crew is hopefully returning soon, and Eovaldi is pitching like he wants to drag the whole team into the post-season by himself. I've had my doubts over the last two months, but I think they get there.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
8,251
Yankees are playing worse this stretch than the Sox ever did in August. Good thing they made all those trades to energize their team for a postseason run
 

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
262
Yankees are playing worse this stretch than the Sox ever did in August. Good thing they made all those trades to energize their team for a postseason run
Truth. Gallo is batting .134 over his 37 games with NY with an OPS of .627. Rizzo has put up ok numbers (.265 AVG, .793 OPS). Heaney has an ERA over 7 (not counting the 2 runs he gave up tonight).

EDIT: I should have added that it looks like Clay Holmes has pitched well since coming to the NYY at the deadline.
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
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Sep 14, 2002
5,972
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
Voted Yes .. with caution. The MFY are terrible right now (watching them lose again to Toronto) and I don’t see them turning it around.

So, It’s Boston and Toronto … both teams have flaws , Toronto has a worse schedule , The Red Sox are getting healthy.
 

Max Power

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Jul 20, 2005
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The Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox are all tied with 62 losses. The next three weeks could be nuts. But I'd prefer if the Yankees simply lost every game from here on out and made it much less stressful.
 

E5 Yaz

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Red Sox 80-62
Yankees 78-62
Blue Jays 77-62
Mariners 76-64
A's 76-64

Weekend series
Red Sox at White Sox
Yankees at Mets
Blue Jays at Orioles
D'backs at Mariners
Rangers at A's