Elvis??? Really??? With Elvis playing SS I'm sure Accidents Will HappenI'd watch every single game Elvis Costello started.
Elvis??? Really??? With Elvis playing SS I'm sure Accidents Will HappenI'd watch every single game Elvis Costello started.
Thank you. Iglesias is fun to watch in the field, but I am consistently amazed by the love he continues to get from Sox fans based on what -- a month-long hot streak in 2021?People wanting Jose Iglesias -- you guys do know that he put up an 85 wRC+ last year, right? His D is nowhere near where it used to be. 3.6% walk rate. He's fine as a back-up but no way he should be starting for the Red Sox.
Believe it when i see it.
I like Amed Rosario. There's probably a deal there that makes sense for both sides, you wouldn't have to give up too much. Rosario can hit a bit better than FA options like Elvis Andrus and Iglesias + as you said, only 27 so while he likely is what he is, there's room for more. I actually think all three are very similar in many respects. They can hit for average, not much pop, no walks, but they don't strikeout that much either. The advanced defensive metrics are all over the place on Rosario and even Iglesias last few years but both are still upgrades over X.I mentioned Amed Rosario in another thread. He's 27, has one more year of arbitration, is getting expensive for Cleveland, and they have a number of middle infielders who are waiting in the wings.
Does anyone think Ceddanne Raphael could make the jump this year? I didn't realize he was already 22 years old. Reports are that he is ready now to play defense at shortstop or centerfield but what needs to improve his plate discipline. That is a skill that probably can't be developed as a young player at the pro level, and throwing him in to the fire might hamper his development.
I don't think it is going to happen to start the season, but, looking at Mookie's trajectory through the minors, and debuting with the Sox at age 22, makes me wonder how aggressively the front office might move Ceddanne. Playing centerfield in 2024 is probably the most realistic timeline.
Side note: Ceddanne grew up in Curacoa, which is just 70 miles east of Aruba, where Xander grew up.
Given the current free agent prices, I don't think Baez's contract looks that bad, to be honest. I believe AAV is recalculated following a trade, so the total hit would be 5 years/$120 million ($24 million AAV), unless he has a career year and opts out after 2023.I was thinking about Baez, who following his Mets stint was my secret SS crush (who I hoped no one would sign and we’d get in a “Story scenario”), but the plate discipline he showed with the Mets evaporated and I’m not sure the Sox as presently constituted are a good bet to get him to bring it back…
You could probably get the Tigers to eat a lot of the deal, but he might not even be worth that payroll hit.
It wouldn't be my first choice, but a plan where we respond to San Diego inking Bogaerts by spending on the appealing options that are still out there and filling in around those with what's in house isn't the worst.There's like 0 chance Enmy can play SS...
But if Story is up for SS that would be fun.
I'd assume so. He's 25, with not quite a year of service time, and he has a 114 OPS+, a good K rate and decent BB rate, and has been worth 2.8 WAR in ~400 PA. He can play all around the outfield. His contact quality isn't especially good, but if you think he could add more than his present moderate power as he ages into his prime, he looks like a well-rounded, hit-over-power outfielder, and he has 6 years of control remaining.Wow, is Jake McCarthy really that valuable? NY has been rumored to be trying to trade for him but that is a more valuable package than I expected.
Bobby Dalbec, SS. This is the correct answer.This question is better posed in late February when we see if they have Dalbec fielding grounders at SS
Arroyo is great but entirely incapable of staying on the field. Lowrie 2.0I think it's Arroyo's job to lose in all honesty. Could even put Bobby there if need be. MM's what....2 years away? I can't see Story there unless his arm is back to 100%. If that's the case then there's no real discussion.
I think it will come down to comparing the value of options available via free agency/trade at shortstop vs. the same at second base (with some decrease in value due to the uncertainty of moving Story to SS).I bought into the “Trevor Story arm issues keep him at second” narrative and realize it’s a bunch of nonsense. Story will play short
Mateo is interesting, actually.One name that I have not heard much about is Jorge Mateo. Rosenthal wrote about him today:
"Mateo, entering his age 28 season, might be an affordable and potentially attractive fit for interested clubs, a player whose value as an athletic defender and stolen-base threat should only increase as the league introduces shift restrictions, larger bases and pickoff rules in 2023.
The Orioles like the idea of pairing their right-handed hitting infielders, Mateo and Ramón Urías, with their left-handed hitting options, Gunnar Henderson and Adam Frazier. The additional depth at second, short and third will enable them not only to mix and match, but also to get each player sufficient rest. Then again, the O’s also will have three middle-infield prospects at Triple A, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby. The team is bound to move some of its infielders eventually.
Mateo, then, would appear expendable in the right deal. He ranked among the top five defenders at short last season in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, and is projected to earn a relatively paltry $1.8 million in the first of his three years of arbitration. The downside: His adjusted OPS last season was 19 percent below league average, though he did lead the American League with 35 stolen bases (in 44 attempts) and pop 13 home runs."
While the Orioles will likely not want to trade him within the division, he is another option on the market which may help the Sox fill that position. I'm still wanting to see a trade for Amed Rosario and maybe Mateo's availability makes other trades slightly more affordable.
Also a career .322 hitter at Fenway (.798 OPS) in 252 PAs. His career numbers are flat so I'd expect some evening out, but he's somehow played inspired ball in both of his stints here and always seemed to play with a chip on his shoulder against Boston. If you squint I can see them making it work with Iglesias.Iglesias is defensively sound and offensively acceptable. He also won’t be expensive at all. Seems like the best of the options available..
Statcast has Camden as a 99 park factor for RHB this year, 16th/30 parks, while Petco was an 89, good for dead last (good luck Xander!).The defense is plus-plus, and the bat may have come around a bit once he got regular playing time. After July 10, he hit .251/.289/.444 in 254 PAs, good for a 105 wRC+. Neutralize the park stuff, and maybe he's a roughly similar player to Ha-seong Kim.
Xander's hits seem to be either 150-foot dinks over the infielders or 450-foot moonshots. Maybe he'll be okay.Statcast has Camden as a 99 park factor for RHB this year, 16th/30 parks, while Petco was an 89, good for dead last (good luck Xander!).
I like Andrus okay as a veteran stopgap but he’s a 34-year-old Boras client coming off a 3 bWAR season who before this year hadn’t put up an OPS+ above 78 since 2017 and is about average defensively it seems.2/$17 not bad at all. Wonder if we can sign Andrus to something like that instead of starting with an Arroyo/Valdez platoon at 2b and Story at SS
I wouldn't mind seeing Iglesias back in a SS/2B role.So Segura is off the market..
That leaves Andres and Iglesias in the free agent market.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-marlins-sign-jean-segura-to-two-year-17-million-deal-per-report/amp/
With their current signings (including the not yet official Turner and Kluber), assuming most arb estimates are close, they're about $18M short of the CBT threshold. I don't see why they wouldn't spend another $10M (?) or so for someone like Andrus. If they don't, I suspect it's more because they prefer the Story/Arroyo combo than because they're unwilling to spend.I like Andrus okay as a veteran stopgap but he’s a 34-year-old Boras client coming off a 3 bWAR season who before this year hadn’t put up an OPS+ above 78 since 2017 and is about average defensively it seems.
They aren’t bad comps — Segura put up 1.8 bWAR in 2/3 of the games, 100 to Andrus’s 150 — but SS is a more premium position.
Ultimately for a team that seems unwilling — at least to this point — to spend up to or over the CBT threshold this season like the 2023 Red Sox I would be surprised if they go for Andrus.
If he does end up being only 10m, I think Andrus is the best option, but I'm skeptical that he won't get more after a really good year.With their current signings (including the not yet official Turner and Kluber), assuming most arb estimates are close, they're about $18M short of the CBT threshold. I don't see why they wouldn't spend another $10M (?) or so for someone like Andrus. If they don't, I suspect it's more because they prefer the Story/Arroyo combo than because they're unwilling to spend.
Would be happy to eat my words later but I doubt we'll pony up what it takes to acquire Adames. Unclear if Kim is available since they can platoon him with Cronenworth at 2b but he put up a heck of a season in a terrible hitting park so won't come cheap with his 3/$21 remaining. I also doubt Mateo is available looking at the BAL depth chart and inter-division trades are uncommon.Andrus is a name but I’m not convinced he has the chops to play short anymore. He’s at -14 defensive runs saved over the last two years (2,466 innings). Iglesias is -26 DRS in 1,968 innings.
My guess is that the Sox FO values 2B/3B/SS defense very highly. Especially with a rather thin pitching staff, defensive miscues can prolong innings and add pitch counts and relief appearances more than what the valuation systems can properly assess.
I think we’ll swing a trade for one of the B-tier of shortstops: Adames (who is pushing A-tier), Kim, or Mateo (who may knocking on the B-tier door); or run with Story/Arroyo while trading next to nothing for an elite defensive fallback: DeJong, Fletcher, Ahmed, Rojas or Wendle.
If good defense is a must and Story/Arroyo/Valdez/Goodrum is your floor, there’s only so many guys you can acquire who’d be assuredly better than Arroyo (a good defensive 2B with a much improved bat) and worth the opportunity cost of displacing Valdez.
The wild card is Mondesi. He’s a former elite prospect who lost his job in KC. We may be able to trade for him and throw him into the mix, perhaps convincing him to play a little OF, in hopes that consistent rest and the shift ban can help harness his massive potential for a year. If he’s healthy and better than Arroyo, that could be interesting. If not, just put him on the 60-day IL again at no real harm to the roster.
This is where I am at this point, particularly since 2B-SS-CF defense is a team priority.I think we have to set aside any notion that we can add a SS that also will improve the offense (especially as a RHH). The only thing to look for is if they can land a SS good enough to keep Story at 2B; anything else is gravy.
They could play Kike at SS, Verdugo in CF, and look for offense at RF. Pollock? DuVall? Kepler?I think we have to set aside any notion that we can add a SS that also will improve the offense (especially as a RHH). The only thing to look for is if they can land a SS good enough to keep Story at 2B; anything else is gravy.
Pollock lost the ability to hit fastballs last year and doesn’t offer much on defense nowadays. Duvall is a decent fit as a Renfroe type, a guy with excellent defensive metrics despite not looking the part, but may be redundant with Refsnyder on the team. Both are fourth outfielder types, while Kepler is very much a starter and seems to have several suitors, and therefore costs a lot.They could play Kike at SS, Verdugo in CF, and look for offense at RF. Pollock? DuVall? Kepler?
None of these are good options. Offense really seems a bad or two short.
If you’re not going to pay market rate for above-average starting pitching (and there’s a good argument that you shouldn’t), then you pretty much can’t trade away guys like Houck who have the potential to become that sort of pitcher, even if Houck’s odds of achieving that upside are well under 50/50 (which is true for most young pitchers with upside).I think we’re underselling the idea that adding Kluber frees up a starter, likely Pivetta or Houck, for a trade to fill one of these positions.
He exercised a player option, right?Wonder if there’s any market for Paxton. He’s the guy I would look to move.
I think that’s probably right. Yet, it seems risky for the Sox to trade Houck or Pivetta until they know Paxton is healthy too, or else they suddenly may need what they just traded.He exercised a player option, right?
It’s possible his agent badly misread the market, but it seems likely that Paxton has no trade market whatsoever until he’s able to take the mound and prove he’s healthy.
But Andrus is not a plus defensive shortstop, according to the Fielding Bible/DRS.I didn't realize that Andrus was a 3+ WAR player last year. I know a large chunk of that is in his defense, but I always thought of him as a bigger name than actual talent.
I think the only way they'll look to trade Houck is if the Sox ultimately see him as a reliever, but can trade him to someone who will value him as a starter. If you can get excess value that way, then you at least see what he'll bring back.If you’re not going to pay market rate for above-average starting pitching (and there’s a good argument that you shouldn’t), then you pretty much can’t trade away guys like Houck who have the potential to become that sort of pitcher, even if Houck’s odds of achieving that upside are well under 50/50 (which is true for most young pitchers with upside).
I don’t think there are similar categorical objections to trading Pivetta, who is average at best without much upside. Unfortunately, he’s the only player on the roster whom I’d bet even money on pitching 150 innings in 2023. Of course I’d trade him in a heartbeat if he’s part of a package for a star player, but I don’t think you move him in a small deal to fill a roster hole, because you’re likely just exchanging one hole for another.
Yes, I think that is the case for trading him exactly. I think they now see him as a reliever, evidenced by the extreme care they took with protecting him from the third trip from the order and his early bounce into the bullpen last year.I think the only way they'll look to trade Houck is if the Sox ultimately see him as a reliever, but can trade him to someone who will value him as a starter. If you can get excess value that way, then you at least see what he'll bring back.
Agree in principle, I just really don’t think they see Houck this way. They pulled him from the rotation in early May last year and he didn’t return there, even though the team rushed Winckowski’s development to start games later that month. Now, they’ve signaled he’s coming to spring training as a pitcher. But he’s buried behind six others who have guaranteed spots, if healthy. I suppose they could try handcuffing Houck to Paxton like they did with him and Hill last April, but Paxton’s going to want to eventually be treated like a healthy starter if he can handle it, because he’s pitching for another contract. Otherwise, if everyone’s healthy, Houck starts the season as a reliever, and it’s very difficult-to-impossible to stretch him back out as a starter midsession.If you’re not going to pay market rate for above-average starting pitching (and there’s a good argument that you shouldn’t), then you pretty much can’t trade away guys like Houck who have the potential to become that sort of pitcher, even if Houck’s odds of achieving that upside are well under 50/50 (which is true for most young pitchers with upside).
I don’t think there are similar categorical objections to trading Pivetta, who is average at best without much upside. Unfortunately, he’s the only player on the roster whom I’d bet even money on pitching 150 innings in 2023. Of course I’d trade him in a heartbeat if he’s part of a package for a star player, but I don’t think you move him in a small deal to fill a roster hole, because you’re likely just exchanging one hole for another.