Poll: Who Will Play the Most Games at Shortstop for the '23 Red Sox?

Who Will Play the Most Games at Short for the '23 Red Sox?


  • Total voters
    321

Hendu Candu

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 6, 2003
462
Upstate NY
People wanting Jose Iglesias -- you guys do know that he put up an 85 wRC+ last year, right? His D is nowhere near where it used to be. 3.6% walk rate. He's fine as a back-up but no way he should be starting for the Red Sox.
Thank you. Iglesias is fun to watch in the field, but I am consistently amazed by the love he continues to get from Sox fans based on what -- a month-long hot streak in 2021?

Hoping irrationally that a few months of rest will get Story's arm out of the bottom 8 percent range ...
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,282
There's like 0 chance Enmy can play SS...

But if Story is up for SS that would be fun.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,948
I mentioned Amed Rosario in another thread. He's 27, has one more year of arbitration, is getting expensive for Cleveland, and they have a number of middle infielders who are waiting in the wings.

Does anyone think Ceddanne Raphael could make the jump this year? I didn't realize he was already 22 years old. Reports are that he is ready now to play defense at shortstop or centerfield but what needs to improve his plate discipline. That is a skill that probably can't be developed as a young player at the pro level, and throwing him in to the fire might hamper his development.

I don't think it is going to happen to start the season, but, looking at Mookie's trajectory through the minors, and debuting with the Sox at age 22, makes me wonder how aggressively the front office might move Ceddanne. Playing centerfield in 2024 is probably the most realistic timeline.

Side note: Ceddanne grew up in Curacoa, which is just 70 miles east of Aruba, where Xander grew up.
I like Amed Rosario. There's probably a deal there that makes sense for both sides, you wouldn't have to give up too much. Rosario can hit a bit better than FA options like Elvis Andrus and Iglesias + as you said, only 27 so while he likely is what he is, there's room for more. I actually think all three are very similar in many respects. They can hit for average, not much pop, no walks, but they don't strikeout that much either. The advanced defensive metrics are all over the place on Rosario and even Iglesias last few years but both are still upgrades over X.

I don't think Rafaela makes the jump this year. I can see where you're coming from because, like Mookie, he's an elite defensive prospect and his breakout, bat speed, etc sort of remind you of him, but Mookie's plate approach was legendary. Mookie walked more than he struck out at every level of minor league baseball except for his brief ~45 games in AAA (30Ks/25BBs).

I don't think Rafaela will ever have a big walk rate or anything, but he will need to show he can recognize and stop chasing breaking pitches outside the zone, etc. To be fair, he actually cut his K rate significantly after being promoted to AA so that's a good start.
 
Aug 31, 2006
133
South Acton, Mass.
I was thinking about Baez, who following his Mets stint was my secret SS crush (who I hoped no one would sign and we’d get in a “Story scenario”), but the plate discipline he showed with the Mets evaporated and I’m not sure the Sox as presently constituted are a good bet to get him to bring it back…

You could probably get the Tigers to eat a lot of the deal, but he might not even be worth that payroll hit.
Given the current free agent prices, I don't think Baez's contract looks that bad, to be honest. I believe AAV is recalculated following a trade, so the total hit would be 5 years/$120 million ($24 million AAV), unless he has a career year and opts out after 2023.

He was terrible last year, but he was better in the second half; maybe he was hurt, or suffered from some big contract pressure? In any event, he has wicked power from the right side and has always played excellent defense at 2B, 3B, and SS with a good arm.

If the Tigers would eat some money or add in someone like Gregory Soto or some prospects, I would take a good hard look.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,479
Rogers Park
There's like 0 chance Enmy can play SS...

But if Story is up for SS that would be fun.
It wouldn't be my first choice, but a plan where we respond to San Diego inking Bogaerts by spending on the appealing options that are still out there and filling in around those with what's in house isn't the worst.

For example:
  • sign Senga *and* Rodon for 5/$100m and 7/$160m respectively (well, maybe the market has moved past that, I'm not really sure);
  • deal Houck, Pivetta and Edinson Paulino to Arizona for Jake McCarthy;
  • flip Verdugo for Rhys Hoskins.
  • play Story at SS.
  • platoon Arroyo and Valdez at 2B.
This gives you the following roster, and keeps you a bit under the first CBT cap:

An extremely deep rotation of Rodon, Senga, Sale, Whitlock, Bello — with Paxton starting on the IL and Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold and Murphy in AAA.
A bullpen of Jansen, Martin, Barnes, Schreiber, Joely, Mata, Brasier, and Ort (or something like that)
And a lineup of e.g.:

vs. RHP:

LF Yoshida L
DH Hoskins R
3B Devers L
SS Story R
1B Casas L
2B Valdez L
RF McCarthy L
C McGuire L
CF Hernández R

vs. LHP:

DH Yoshida L
1B Hoskins R
3B Devers L
SS Story R
LF Refsnyder R
RF McCarthy L
CF Hernéndez R
2B Arroyo R
C Wong R

I don't know if that's a great roster, but I like it for a wildcard spot with all the pitching.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,713
Wow, is Jake McCarthy really that valuable? NY has been rumored to be trying to trade for him but that is a more valuable package than I expected.
 

Sad Sam Jones

Member
SoSH Member
May 5, 2017
2,494
Chris Antonneti has denied it, but everyone knows Amed Rosario is on the trading block.

He's in his last year of team control and his replacement, whether it be Gabriel Arias or Tyler Freeman (or Andres Gimenez with one of the other two playing 2B) is already in Cleveland. They may also have Brayan Rocchio up before the end of 2023.

I wasn't a fan when Rosario was acquired, but he won me over. You can't help but root for a guy who gets probably 3 singles a month just from infielders getting lackadaisical and failing to realize how quickly he busts down the line. He's not an especially good shortstop, but he can play there everyday and really improved into a solid fielder last year. I feel like we've reached a tipping point where a guy who rarely walks but consistently bats .280 is kind of underrated. He'll also surprise you from time with his power.

Cleveland won't just give him away, but it may not require a return of immediate impact, since it wouldn't really create a hole. It's also hard to see where the two teams would match up on a major league return since they have similar needs (starting catcher or another outfield bat).
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
I wouldn't be shocked to see no one too interested in Swanson and Chaim think he's getting a "deal" by giving him something like 5/120 late in the offseason.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,479
Rogers Park
Wow, is Jake McCarthy really that valuable? NY has been rumored to be trying to trade for him but that is a more valuable package than I expected.
I'd assume so. He's 25, with not quite a year of service time, and he has a 114 OPS+, a good K rate and decent BB rate, and has been worth 2.8 WAR in ~400 PA. He can play all around the outfield. His contact quality isn't especially good, but if you think he could add more than his present moderate power as he ages into his prime, he looks like a well-rounded, hit-over-power outfielder, and he has 6 years of control remaining.
 

beautokyo

New Member
Jun 5, 2008
267
Tokyo, Japan
I think it's Arroyo's job to lose in all honesty. Could even put Bobby there if need be. MM's what....2 years away? I can't see Story there unless his arm is back to 100%. If that's the case then there's no real discussion.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,144
I think it's Arroyo's job to lose in all honesty. Could even put Bobby there if need be. MM's what....2 years away? I can't see Story there unless his arm is back to 100%. If that's the case then there's no real discussion.
Arroyo is great but entirely incapable of staying on the field. Lowrie 2.0
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,368
I'll third the Dalbec answer. If the question were most starts at SS, I might go with someone else.
 

kazuneko

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,816
Honolulu HI
Iglesias is defensively sound and offensively acceptable. He also won’t be expensive at all. Seems like the best of the options available..
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
912
One name that I have not heard much about is Jorge Mateo. Rosenthal wrote about him today:


"Mateo, entering his age 28 season, might be an affordable and potentially attractive fit for interested clubs, a player whose value as an athletic defender and stolen-base threat should only increase as the league introduces shift restrictions, larger bases and pickoff rules in 2023.

The Orioles like the idea of pairing their right-handed hitting infielders, Mateo and Ramón Urías, with their left-handed hitting options, Gunnar Henderson and Adam Frazier. The additional depth at second, short and third will enable them not only to mix and match, but also to get each player sufficient rest. Then again, the O’s also will have three middle-infield prospects at Triple A, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby. The team is bound to move some of its infielders eventually.

Mateo, then, would appear expendable in the right deal. He ranked among the top five defenders at short last season in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, and is projected to earn a relatively paltry $1.8 million in the first of his three years of arbitration. The downside: His adjusted OPS last season was 19 percent below league average, though he did lead the American League with 35 stolen bases (in 44 attempts) and pop 13 home runs."

While the Orioles will likely not want to trade him within the division, he is another option on the market which may help the Sox fill that position. I'm still wanting to see a trade for Amed Rosario and maybe Mateo's availability makes other trades slightly more affordable.
 

pk1627

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 24, 2003
2,514
Boston
I bought into the “Trevor Story arm issues keep him at second” narrative and realize it’s a bunch of nonsense. Story will play short
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
912
I bought into the “Trevor Story arm issues keep him at second” narrative and realize it’s a bunch of nonsense. Story will play short
I think it will come down to comparing the value of options available via free agency/trade at shortstop vs. the same at second base (with some decrease in value due to the uncertainty of moving Story to SS).
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
One name that I have not heard much about is Jorge Mateo. Rosenthal wrote about him today:


"Mateo, entering his age 28 season, might be an affordable and potentially attractive fit for interested clubs, a player whose value as an athletic defender and stolen-base threat should only increase as the league introduces shift restrictions, larger bases and pickoff rules in 2023.

The Orioles like the idea of pairing their right-handed hitting infielders, Mateo and Ramón Urías, with their left-handed hitting options, Gunnar Henderson and Adam Frazier. The additional depth at second, short and third will enable them not only to mix and match, but also to get each player sufficient rest. Then again, the O’s also will have three middle-infield prospects at Triple A, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby. The team is bound to move some of its infielders eventually.

Mateo, then, would appear expendable in the right deal. He ranked among the top five defenders at short last season in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, and is projected to earn a relatively paltry $1.8 million in the first of his three years of arbitration. The downside: His adjusted OPS last season was 19 percent below league average, though he did lead the American League with 35 stolen bases (in 44 attempts) and pop 13 home runs."

While the Orioles will likely not want to trade him within the division, he is another option on the market which may help the Sox fill that position. I'm still wanting to see a trade for Amed Rosario and maybe Mateo's availability makes other trades slightly more affordable.
Mateo is interesting, actually.

One big factor is that he played half his games in Baltimore, which for RHBs was suddenly a pitchers' park last year. Mateo hit .195/.229/.321 at home (53 wRC+) vs. a much more respectable .246/.304/.435 on the road (109 wRC+).

The defense is plus-plus, and the bat may have come around a bit once he got regular playing time. After July 10, he hit .251/.289/.444 in 254 PAs, good for a 105 wRC+. Neutralize the park stuff, and maybe he's a roughly similar player to Ha-seong Kim.
 

Whoop-La White

used to be zougwa
SoSH Member
Iglesias is defensively sound and offensively acceptable. He also won’t be expensive at all. Seems like the best of the options available..
Also a career .322 hitter at Fenway (.798 OPS) in 252 PAs. His career numbers are flat so I'd expect some evening out, but he's somehow played inspired ball in both of his stints here and always seemed to play with a chip on his shoulder against Boston. If you squint I can see them making it work with Iglesias.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,719
The defense is plus-plus, and the bat may have come around a bit once he got regular playing time. After July 10, he hit .251/.289/.444 in 254 PAs, good for a 105 wRC+. Neutralize the park stuff, and maybe he's a roughly similar player to Ha-seong Kim.
Statcast has Camden as a 99 park factor for RHB this year, 16th/30 parks, while Petco was an 89, good for dead last (good luck Xander!).
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,878
Boston, MA
Statcast has Camden as a 99 park factor for RHB this year, 16th/30 parks, while Petco was an 89, good for dead last (good luck Xander!).
Xander's hits seem to be either 150-foot dinks over the infielders or 450-foot moonshots. Maybe he'll be okay.
 

johnlos

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2014
248
2/$17 not bad at all. Wonder if we can sign Andrus to something like that instead of starting with an Arroyo/Valdez platoon at 2b and Story at SS
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
2/$17 not bad at all. Wonder if we can sign Andrus to something like that instead of starting with an Arroyo/Valdez platoon at 2b and Story at SS
I like Andrus okay as a veteran stopgap but he’s a 34-year-old Boras client coming off a 3 bWAR season who before this year hadn’t put up an OPS+ above 78 since 2017 and is about average defensively it seems.

They aren’t bad comps — Segura put up 1.8 bWAR in 2/3 of the games, 100 to Andrus’s 150 — but SS is a more premium position.

Ultimately for a team that seems unwilling — at least to this point — to spend up to or over the CBT threshold this season like the 2023 Red Sox I would be surprised if they go for Andrus.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Andrus is a name but I’m not convinced he has the chops to play short anymore. He’s at -14 defensive runs saved over the last two years (2,466 innings). Iglesias is -26 DRS in 1,968 innings.

My guess is that the Sox FO values 2B/3B/SS defense very highly. Especially with a rather thin pitching staff, defensive miscues can prolong innings and add pitch counts and relief appearances more than what the valuation systems can properly assess.

I think we’ll swing a trade for one of the B-tier of shortstops: Adames (who is pushing A-tier), Kim, or Mateo (who may knocking on the B-tier door); or run with Story/Arroyo while trading next to nothing for an elite defensive fallback: DeJong, Fletcher, Ahmed, Rojas or Wendle.

If good defense is a must and Story/Arroyo/Valdez/Goodrum is your floor, there’s only so many guys you can acquire who’d be assuredly better than Arroyo (a good defensive 2B with a much improved bat) and worth the opportunity cost of displacing Valdez.

The wild card is Mondesi. He’s a former elite prospect who lost his job in KC. We may be able to trade for him and throw him into the mix, perhaps convincing him to play a little OF, in hopes that consistent rest and the shift ban can help harness his massive potential for a year. If he’s healthy and better than Arroyo, that could be interesting. If not, just put him on the 60-day IL again at no real harm to the roster.
 
Last edited:

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,678
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I wouldn't mind seeing Iglesias back in a SS/2B role.

Somewhat small sample size of 236 career at bats, but he's always hit well in Fenway. Let him pepper the wall for a year.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=site|BOS07|iglesjo01|bat|AB|
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
I like Andrus okay as a veteran stopgap but he’s a 34-year-old Boras client coming off a 3 bWAR season who before this year hadn’t put up an OPS+ above 78 since 2017 and is about average defensively it seems.

They aren’t bad comps — Segura put up 1.8 bWAR in 2/3 of the games, 100 to Andrus’s 150 — but SS is a more premium position.

Ultimately for a team that seems unwilling — at least to this point — to spend up to or over the CBT threshold this season like the 2023 Red Sox I would be surprised if they go for Andrus.
With their current signings (including the not yet official Turner and Kluber), assuming most arb estimates are close, they're about $18M short of the CBT threshold. I don't see why they wouldn't spend another $10M (?) or so for someone like Andrus. If they don't, I suspect it's more because they prefer the Story/Arroyo combo than because they're unwilling to spend.
 

Martin and Woods

New Member
Dec 8, 2017
81
If they're not confident about Story at SS, then Kim for Houck and Dalbec, or Rojas for Duran and Dalbec (although the trade simulator [I know] says Dalbec is not needed for either trade to balance). I'd prefer the latter as I like Houck, but Dalbec could be part of a cheap 1B platoon for either team with Hosmer as the other half (cheap for SD in the sense that they're already paying him), and it would open up a 40-man spot.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,719
With their current signings (including the not yet official Turner and Kluber), assuming most arb estimates are close, they're about $18M short of the CBT threshold. I don't see why they wouldn't spend another $10M (?) or so for someone like Andrus. If they don't, I suspect it's more because they prefer the Story/Arroyo combo than because they're unwilling to spend.
If he does end up being only 10m, I think Andrus is the best option, but I'm skeptical that he won't get more after a really good year.

And he also leaves the question of what we're doing about the 40 man crunch, and from that perspective a trade makes more sense, if we can find a partner.
 

johnlos

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2014
248
Andrus is a name but I’m not convinced he has the chops to play short anymore. He’s at -14 defensive runs saved over the last two years (2,466 innings). Iglesias is -26 DRS in 1,968 innings.

My guess is that the Sox FO values 2B/3B/SS defense very highly. Especially with a rather thin pitching staff, defensive miscues can prolong innings and add pitch counts and relief appearances more than what the valuation systems can properly assess.

I think we’ll swing a trade for one of the B-tier of shortstops: Adames (who is pushing A-tier), Kim, or Mateo (who may knocking on the B-tier door); or run with Story/Arroyo while trading next to nothing for an elite defensive fallback: DeJong, Fletcher, Ahmed, Rojas or Wendle.

If good defense is a must and Story/Arroyo/Valdez/Goodrum is your floor, there’s only so many guys you can acquire who’d be assuredly better than Arroyo (a good defensive 2B with a much improved bat) and worth the opportunity cost of displacing Valdez.

The wild card is Mondesi. He’s a former elite prospect who lost his job in KC. We may be able to trade for him and throw him into the mix, perhaps convincing him to play a little OF, in hopes that consistent rest and the shift ban can help harness his massive potential for a year. If he’s healthy and better than Arroyo, that could be interesting. If not, just put him on the 60-day IL again at no real harm to the roster.
Would be happy to eat my words later but I doubt we'll pony up what it takes to acquire Adames. Unclear if Kim is available since they can platoon him with Cronenworth at 2b but he put up a heck of a season in a terrible hitting park so won't come cheap with his 3/$21 remaining. I also doubt Mateo is available looking at the BAL depth chart and inter-division trades are uncommon.

I don't mind buying low on Mondesi and taking a shot throwing him in the mix. Seems unlikely to help much though since he's effectively put up 1 year (~700 PAs) of good WAR in his career with long bouts of injuries or ineffectiveness surrounding it. Also maybe I'm quibbling about superlatives but he peaked at 38th in the top-100 prospects so I don't think he was ever elite (like say JP Crawford and Addison Russell who both peaked at #5, lol).

The question is if we don't swing a trade for one of these guys do we even want a defensive fallback with Arroyo around? I guess so if we think Story's arm is too risky to trust?
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,016
Oregon
I think we have to set aside any notion that we can add a SS that also will improve the offense (especially as a RHH). The only thing to look for is if they can land a SS good enough to keep Story at 2B; anything else is gravy.
This is where I am at this point, particularly since 2B-SS-CF defense is a team priority.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,921
I think we have to set aside any notion that we can add a SS that also will improve the offense (especially as a RHH). The only thing to look for is if they can land a SS good enough to keep Story at 2B; anything else is gravy.
They could play Kike at SS, Verdugo in CF, and look for offense at RF. Pollock? DuVall? Kepler?

None of these are good options. Offense really seems a bad or two short.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,493
Scituate, MA
I didn't realize that Andrus was a 3+ WAR player last year. I know a large chunk of that is in his defense, but I always thought of him as a bigger name than actual talent.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
They could play Kike at SS, Verdugo in CF, and look for offense at RF. Pollock? DuVall? Kepler?

None of these are good options. Offense really seems a bad or two short.
Pollock lost the ability to hit fastballs last year and doesn’t offer much on defense nowadays. Duvall is a decent fit as a Renfroe type, a guy with excellent defensive metrics despite not looking the part, but may be redundant with Refsnyder on the team. Both are fourth outfielder types, while Kepler is very much a starter and seems to have several suitors, and therefore costs a lot.

I’d be shocked if Kiké played short over Story, though it’s a nonzero possibility. But all that does is shift a need from shortstop to center field, where it’s even more urgent. I don’t think Verdugo can handle right, let alone center.

I think we’re underselling the idea that adding Kluber frees up a starter, likely Pivetta or Houck, for a trade to fill one of these positions.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,921
I just hate the idea of dealing Houck, a young effective pitcher who can relieve or start and is under control for years. Seems like the kind of guy that they will regret moving. But of course he’s the most valuable trade chip among players at least theoretically available.

Wonder if there’s any market for Paxton. He’s the guy I would look to move.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
I think we’re underselling the idea that adding Kluber frees up a starter, likely Pivetta or Houck, for a trade to fill one of these positions.
If you’re not going to pay market rate for above-average starting pitching (and there’s a good argument that you shouldn’t), then you pretty much can’t trade away guys like Houck who have the potential to become that sort of pitcher, even if Houck’s odds of achieving that upside are well under 50/50 (which is true for most young pitchers with upside).

I don’t think there are similar categorical objections to trading Pivetta, who is average at best without much upside. Unfortunately, he’s the only player on the roster whom I’d bet even money on pitching 150 innings in 2023. Of course I’d trade him in a heartbeat if he’s part of a package for a star player, but I don’t think you move him in a small deal to fill a roster hole, because you’re likely just exchanging one hole for another.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
11,921
He exercised a player option, right?

It’s possible his agent badly misread the market, but it seems likely that Paxton has no trade market whatsoever until he’s able to take the mound and prove he’s healthy.
I think that’s probably right. Yet, it seems risky for the Sox to trade Houck or Pivetta until they know Paxton is healthy too, or else they suddenly may need what they just traded.

At this point, they may be best suited to going with what they have - meaning Duran and Dalbec on the roster, Verdugo in RF, Arroyo / Story covering SS and 2B with Hernandez backing them up to start.

Probably not ideal; and maybe they add Andrus or Iglesias which bumps Duran off the roster, but the FA market has dried up and any significant trade is going to open up a new hole on an already thin roster.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
If you’re not going to pay market rate for above-average starting pitching (and there’s a good argument that you shouldn’t), then you pretty much can’t trade away guys like Houck who have the potential to become that sort of pitcher, even if Houck’s odds of achieving that upside are well under 50/50 (which is true for most young pitchers with upside).

I don’t think there are similar categorical objections to trading Pivetta, who is average at best without much upside. Unfortunately, he’s the only player on the roster whom I’d bet even money on pitching 150 innings in 2023. Of course I’d trade him in a heartbeat if he’s part of a package for a star player, but I don’t think you move him in a small deal to fill a roster hole, because you’re likely just exchanging one hole for another.
I think the only way they'll look to trade Houck is if the Sox ultimately see him as a reliever, but can trade him to someone who will value him as a starter. If you can get excess value that way, then you at least see what he'll bring back.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
I think the only way they'll look to trade Houck is if the Sox ultimately see him as a reliever, but can trade him to someone who will value him as a starter. If you can get excess value that way, then you at least see what he'll bring back.
Yes, I think that is the case for trading him exactly. I think they now see him as a reliever, evidenced by the extreme care they took with protecting him from the third trip from the order and his early bounce into the bullpen last year.

(I think it’s likelier they trade Pivetta, because with everyone else around it’s much more valuable to use his innings to see that they’ve got in Crawford, Seabold, Winckowski, Mata, Murphy and Walter before the 2025 team’s window opens.)

If you’re not going to pay market rate for above-average starting pitching (and there’s a good argument that you shouldn’t), then you pretty much can’t trade away guys like Houck who have the potential to become that sort of pitcher, even if Houck’s odds of achieving that upside are well under 50/50 (which is true for most young pitchers with upside).

I don’t think there are similar categorical objections to trading Pivetta, who is average at best without much upside. Unfortunately, he’s the only player on the roster whom I’d bet even money on pitching 150 innings in 2023. Of course I’d trade him in a heartbeat if he’s part of a package for a star player, but I don’t think you move him in a small deal to fill a roster hole, because you’re likely just exchanging one hole for another.
Agree in principle, I just really don’t think they see Houck this way. They pulled him from the rotation in early May last year and he didn’t return there, even though the team rushed Winckowski’s development to start games later that month. Now, they’ve signaled he’s coming to spring training as a pitcher. But he’s buried behind six others who have guaranteed spots, if healthy. I suppose they could try handcuffing Houck to Paxton like they did with him and Hill last April, but Paxton’s going to want to eventually be treated like a healthy starter if he can handle it, because he’s pitching for another contract. Otherwise, if everyone’s healthy, Houck starts the season as a reliever, and it’s very difficult-to-impossible to stretch him back out as a starter midsession.

The pitcher you describe is basically Whitlock (as a starter), who I agree you can’t trade away. The hope with Houck is that he learns another pitch and becomes a Tyler Glasnow or Freddy Peralta. But it’s fairly likely he’s another Adbert Alzolay or Tylor Megill, useful multi-inning relievers who dominate right-handed batters and get exposed by lefties.

I’m not certain which one Houck is, but I’m not seeing the Sox super eager to find out. If they think Houck is the latter and another team values him as the former, then it could be better to trade him to fill another of the team’s needs.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,282
Houck walked an aberrational # of lefties last year which I think led to a lot of his problems.

I do like the idea of him as a long reliever for either Sale or Paxton every time through the rotation, with maybe throwing a couple innings here & there in other games, too. That's a fun way to balance it.

Or 2 innings on Sale days & 2 innings on Paxton days.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Maybe we can repurpose this as the oh shit Story replacement options thread.

The full slate of plausible shortstop options as I see it:

Internal 2B/SS
Goodrum, Arroyo, Kiké, Valdez, Hamilton

Free Agency
Andrus, Iglesias, Chang, Villar

Trade
Adames, Baez, Kim, Mateo, Hoerner, M. Rojas, Wendle, Mondesi, A. Rosario, Fletcher, Rengifo, A. Velazquez, Ahmed, Perdomo, DeJong, Farmer, E. Sosa, Dylan Moore

Here's that group in order of defensive runs saved from 2021-22:

Rojas +20 (2186 innings)
Kim +19 (1352)
Mateo +13 (1377)
Sosa +13 (800)
Wendle +12 (432)
DeJong +11 (1410)
Velazquez +11 (1086)
Hoerner +10 (1215)
Adames +10 (2349)
Fletcher +5 (352)
E. Hernandez +4 (81)
Villar +2 (216)
Ahmed +1 (1162)
Arroyo +1 (78)
Mondesi 0 (213)
Baez -1 (1957)
Rengifo -1 (326)
Perdomo -2 (1241)
Chang -2 (154)
Rosario -3 (2260)
Goodrum -6 (534)
Moore -6 (192)
Andrus -14 (2466)
Iglesias -26 (1968)

Now here's that group by expected wOBA ('21-22)

K. Hernandez .326
Adames .324
Arroyo .319
Sosa .311
Hoerner .306
Rosario .305
Baez .304
Moore .302
Andrus .300
DeJong .295
Rengifo .295
Kim .294
Goodrum .292
Rojas .292
Iglesias .289
Villar .289
Mondesi .287
Chang .285
Fletcher .284
Wendle .282
Mateo .276
Perdomo .270
Velazquez .248
Ahmed .247

Maybe an Andrus stopgap is easier at this point, but I think what I’d do is grab a few guys whose roles aren’t mutually exclusive. Trade for Mondesi, who gives you the clearest upside if he’s healthy but won’t clog a roster spot if not. Sign Yu Chang or Villar to a minor league deal ASAP. Then trade for the cheapest of Kim, Rojas, Sosa, Mateo, Wendle or Fletcher, a guy who can play second base if necessary.

You need a plus defensive shortstop most importantly, and I don't think Andrus or Iglesias are that anymore.
 
Last edited: