POLL: What do with the Celtics' Cap-Space?

[Jimbodandy]

Is there any reason to think “mileage” has any negative effect independent of age? Particularly for guys still in their 20s, I would tend to believe that the wear and tear of an extra 30 hours or so of playing NBA basketball over the course of a career would be offset by the experience in game reps. Seems like it would be a fairly easy thing to study, if someone hasn’t already done so.

This is a fascinating question. Plenty of data exists on pitchers, for example. It would be great to see if something exists for basketball players.

I tend to think that there isn't the same level of correlation. Basketball injuries in general tend to be traumatic, relative to the repetitive motion injuries more common to baseball. Both types clearly exist in both sports.

 

[Captaincoop]

I see both sides of this.

On one hand, Kemba’s career minutes are basically the same as AD’s and Kyrie’s, and no one’s worried about those guys’ mileage (though Kyrie is younger, and AD’s game figures to age well). Also, Kemba’s mileage is partly a function of his good health, which of course is partly luck, but obviously makes him project better than a similar player with fewer career minutes and more injuries.

On the other, Kemba was 3rd in the league in minutes played this season and has been in the top 15 each of the past 4 seasons, and only one player his age or younger (Lillard) has more career minutes played. And like most smaller players, Kemba is dependent on his speed, which tends to decline sooner than other attributes).

Is anyone concerned about Lillard? This just feels like a very minor concern right now, about an awesome addition to the C's.

 

[mauf]

Is anyone concerned about Lillard? This just feels like a very minor concern right now, about an awesome addition to the C's.

Perhaps they should be. The Blazers have ridden Lillard hard.

But I agree with your point — mileage is a minor concern for both players, at least for the next 2-3 years.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

He’s played 11 postseason games in his entire career. He’s 2 years older than Kyrie and has only played like 36 more games.

Yes. Was just going to say, if we're looking at workload there's a need to factor in his light postseason history.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Perhaps they should be. The Blazers have ridden Lillard hard.

But I agree with your point — mileage is a minor concern for both players, at least for the next 2-3 years.

My guess would be that Kemba's decline would look similar to Horford's and KG's during their Celtics tenure with the last year beginning to show the signs that you don't want any part of that next deal (although maybe less so with Horford). That's like many contracts stars sign where a team views that final year also including the value of being an expiring contract. While I expect Kemba's raw numbers to drop he should still be an effective starter, like you say, for at least the next 2-3 years.