Poll Thread: Who wins?
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Celtics in 7. They will play their best defense of the season and tire out Bron. Home team wins every game.
Needing a perfect game against the Cavs is one thing. Needing to play a near-perfect series with our current roster is a Herculean task. At best this is Leonidas's valiant last stand at Thermopylae. King James and his co-workers are too good, too much and justifiably favored. Cavs in 5.
If Brad and Co. can find a way to re-write history, it would be an incredible accomplishment.
If Brad and Co. can find a way to re-write history, it would be an incredible accomplishment.
Celtics in five.
LeBron is my GOAT and, offensively, may be more lethal than ever. But his team is terribly flawed defensively and the right scheme and personnel can exploit them.
The Cs, even sans Kyrie, have depth/tools, a great defense,a multitude of ways to score (nobody can really take away their number one scorer because...well, there isn't one) and the coaching to give Cleveland a really difficult time.
I think Boston gets to the finals. I have zero expectations beyond that.
LeBron is my GOAT and, offensively, may be more lethal than ever. But his team is terribly flawed defensively and the right scheme and personnel can exploit them.
The Cs, even sans Kyrie, have depth/tools, a great defense,a multitude of ways to score (nobody can really take away their number one scorer because...well, there isn't one) and the coaching to give Cleveland a really difficult time.
I think Boston gets to the finals. I have zero expectations beyond that.
I'm going to say Celtics in 6. We win the first two, lose the first two in CLE, win game 5 at home and 6 at CLE in a shocker.
I think at full strength this Celtics team would annihilate Cleveland.
I have Cavs in six; but could easily see the Celtics winning this series; first few games will tell us a lot.
I don't think the Celtics need to play perfect to beat this Cavs team. They almost lost to the Pacers. His co-workers aren't that good.
I want to say Cavs in 5 or 6 bc Lebron is Lebron & Lebron is the best. But my stupid heart says the C's might actually be able to pull this out in either 5 or 7 (I wouldn't feel good about game 6 in Loan Shark Arena either way)
I don't know y'all.
I don't know y'all.
I'll guess Celtics in 7.
I think the Cavs need to build some sizable leads in most if not all of their wins -- not impossible, but do they defend well enough? -- because in any close games, despite what LBJ is capable of, I think the Celtics have the edge: an entire closing lineup of guys with a knack for making winning plays, and a superior coach.
I think the Cavs need to build some sizable leads in most if not all of their wins -- not impossible, but do they defend well enough? -- because in any close games, despite what LBJ is capable of, I think the Celtics have the edge: an entire closing lineup of guys with a knack for making winning plays, and a superior coach.
Because of how badly Toronto shit their pants, people seem to be forgetting how bad Cleveland's defense is. Celts will win this in 7, or maybe 6, depending on the fouls.
This is a fair point. I've made the case elsewhere over the course of half a dozen posts or so how effective Cleveland's offense is now that Hill is at full strength and the Cavs have added additional sets and actions to what they had done previously (they clearly hold back in the regular season, btw). Korver with Love screening for one another plus Hill PnRs are a nightmare for the Celtics - Rozier is godawful defending these.
That said, Cleveland should struggle mightily on the defensive end. Casey was an idiot coach in the last round who never played the (advanced) percentages and Brad will not be so dumb.
Even so, I claimed Cavs in six because the Celtics, themselves, are not a great offensive team and at times (sometimes, for long stretches) get stagnant and over rely on dribble drives with no perimeter movement. Brad, himself, has alluded to this in several interviews throughout the postseason.
Finally, I'm more skeptical than most that LeBron wears down or at least enough for that to be the difference in the series.
Here's hoping I'm wrong!
FAKE edit: One great benefit as many astute Cavs' observers have pointed out today, you never know how Brad will defend a team until you see it. This, alone, could lead to a game one victory.
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I hope you are right. I want you to be right.
One stat I noticed about Game 7 of the Cavs/Pacers series: The Cavs went to the line 40 times. (They won the game by 4, iirc.)
I got the same head/heart issue that seems to be contagious around here.
Although I can rationalize away a lot of the head issues with a few "ifs"
The thing is they're not totally crazy.
If the Celts continue to play great D
if the Celts can deal with LBJ one on one, and contain the other guys
if the Celts young 'uns continue to play big...
The one that seems hardest to get around is the Celtics current depth/short-bench and going with 7-8 guys
The good thing is a lot of those guys are young, because they're gonna be really tired
,
I'm going with the heart-Celts in 7
Although I can rationalize away a lot of the head issues with a few "ifs"
The thing is they're not totally crazy.
If the Celts continue to play great D
if the Celts can deal with LBJ one on one, and contain the other guys
if the Celts young 'uns continue to play big...
The one that seems hardest to get around is the Celtics current depth/short-bench and going with 7-8 guys
The good thing is a lot of those guys are young, because they're gonna be really tired
,
I'm going with the heart-Celts in 7
I do think this is a good point. Toronto just pulled off one of the worst pants-shitting performances in NBA playoff history. So it may be clouding our judgement a little. LeBron played crazy good, but he did in the Pacers series too and they were lucky to escape that series.
Toronto was literally clueless out there. The defense was shitastic in leaving guys like Korver and JR Smith wide open and they completely nutted up on offense.
That said, I'm taking Cavs in 6. If Kyrie were healthy, I honestly think the C's would stomp these guys. I still have concerns about the road Celtics. It wouldn't shock me though if the C's won in 7. They have a shot.
Cavs in 6. I could see a split in the first two games, then Cleveland wins both in CLE. C's win game 5, then Cleveland finishes on their home floor.
There's no way the league wants Boston in the finals. Full healthy? Sure. But a CLE vs GS finals is what they want. And a chance for LeBron to basically win a title on his own against all odds.
There's no way the league wants Boston in the finals. Full healthy? Sure. But a CLE vs GS finals is what they want. And a chance for LeBron to basically win a title on his own against all odds.
I wonder if people (including the pundits) would have a different prediction if the TOR and IND series were flipped.
The Cs way more closely resemble IND than TOR.
I've been wavering for the last couple of days on this series. My head says that LeBron is playing at such a high level right now that he can't be beaten. I also think that the supporting cast started to play well vs. Toronto and will carry their hot shooting over to this series.
However, my heart keeps saying that the Celtics have enough options to at least slow LBJ down, that Korver/Smith/Love won't get going enough, and that on offense they can take advantage of the Cavs' poor defense.
I'm going with my heart. Celtics in 7.
However, my heart keeps saying that the Celtics have enough options to at least slow LBJ down, that Korver/Smith/Love won't get going enough, and that on offense they can take advantage of the Cavs' poor defense.
I'm going with my heart. Celtics in 7.
In case people missed it, in the Brad Stevens thread, TSC posted a great article about the Cs from Lowe; I thought I'd cross post it here.
True. But Hill has a back injury and he's going to be chasing players around screens all night.
This is where I am. If the Celtics win Games 1 and 2 I think they will win the series in 5 or 7, but I suspect the Celtics will drop one at home and, given their road struggles this postseason, won't be able to make that game up. (That's also the reason I think the least likely outcome is Celtics in 6 because I can't see this Celtics team winning a clinching game on the road against LeBron.)
Conventional wisdom for NBA playoffs, says to always favor the team with the best player, right? So this year: CW 0, Celtics 2. Let’s see if we can screw CW for a third time.
I think people aren't giving themselves enough credit here. It's not really a head vs. heart thing. It's easy to look at the Cavs and point to their known quantity: Lebron James. He's going to be incredible and he's going to carry the team. He's not going to all of a sudden suck. That's "head". Basically, the player as a known asset.
For the Celtics, it's a matter of pointing at a whole bunch of players, skill sets, matchups and moments, and trying to figure out if you can come out victorious on the other side of a best-of-seven series based on that. Look at the Zach Lowe article and the clips in it. How do you add all that up? It's impossible to weigh all of that against a known quantity like Lebron. So we call that "heart". It's an assemblage of plans and actions, rather than just player A or player B.
For the Celtics, it's a matter of pointing at a whole bunch of players, skill sets, matchups and moments, and trying to figure out if you can come out victorious on the other side of a best-of-seven series based on that. Look at the Zach Lowe article and the clips in it. How do you add all that up? It's impossible to weigh all of that against a known quantity like Lebron. So we call that "heart". It's an assemblage of plans and actions, rather than just player A or player B.
Cavs in 7.
This ends with a gut wrenching loss at home. There will probably some shit-bag foul call that goes LeBron's way that will resound in MB's PC for years.
However, the rest of the NBA gets put on notice that the Celtics will be razing their basketball operations for the next decade.
This ends with a gut wrenching loss at home. There will probably some shit-bag foul call that goes LeBron's way that will resound in MB's PC for years.
However, the rest of the NBA gets put on notice that the Celtics will be razing their basketball operations for the next decade.
Cavs in 6. I might have felt otherwise if I hadn't been watching the game last Sunday against TOR. With three seconds on the clock and the game on the line, LeBron took the ball inbounds and even though there was so little time left, and everyone knew he was taking that shot, he was still unstoppable. My buddy made 2 bets right before the final play that the Cavs would win in regulation, and found two suckers who didn't think so. There was never a question in my mind that LeBron was gonna hit it as he dribbled up the court. He's on fire right now, and will not be denied.
I had the exact same feeling watching that. But as a metaphysical counter to that: anyone who spent the last few years taking bets against the inevitable is rich by now. Cubs won a World Series. The 73-win Warriors fell. Brady won and lost Super Bowls in unthinkable fashion. Trump. These are weird times.
It was an amazing shot for sure that immediately goes into the LeBron career highlights, but it shouldn't go unnoted that the Raptors totally botched that sequence. Casey apparently wanted his players to try to trap LeBron, but they somehow didn't get the message and everyone just kind of ran away immediately when LeBron got the ball, allowing him to build up a huge head of steam. Then, when LeBron got close to the basket, Lowry inexplicably stayed in the paint instead of at least trying to affect the shot in some way. I have a lot more trust in Brad and the Celtics players that they would have defended LeBron considerably better in that stretch.
None of that is to say the Celtics will necessarily beat the Cavs this series, of course, but they can at least make LeBron and the Cavs work for it.
I haven't seen this as much here as I've seen this elsewhere but there is obviously a lot of chatter about who on the Celtics guards whom on the Cavs, especially who takes Lebron?
The problem the Celtics face and have faced versus Cleveland over the past few years is that A. the Celtics LOVE to switch and B. the Cavs LOVE to screen in order to draw the match ups they want (and excel at this).
It'll be interesting to see if the Celtics continue this trend (which is very much a staple of how they play defense) or if they "adjust." Does Brad think with perhaps Morris, Brown, and Tatum (two of which they didn't have last year) on the floor at the same time they are better able to switch everything and there's no need to modify the way they play the Cavs?
The problem the Celtics face and have faced versus Cleveland over the past few years is that A. the Celtics LOVE to switch and B. the Cavs LOVE to screen in order to draw the match ups they want (and excel at this).
It'll be interesting to see if the Celtics continue this trend (which is very much a staple of how they play defense) or if they "adjust." Does Brad think with perhaps Morris, Brown, and Tatum (two of which they didn't have last year) on the floor at the same time they are better able to switch everything and there's no need to modify the way they play the Cavs?
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Absolutely correct. I'm not going to deny that there is a little emotional hedging/jinx attempting going into my voting process, in fact, I'll cop to it. But on a visceral level, LeBron in these playoff games scares me as much as anyone since Jordan back in the day. He can just turn it on and dominate games at any time, seemingly. In Brad we trust, for sure, but he is going to have his hands full containing that one-man wrecking crew.