Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office

[tims4wins]

Fangraphs is useful here.

And what it suggests is that without Mayer, Boston would slide down to the middle of the pack, into the 13-19 tier of teams with basically comparable systems.

This is not a one-man farm system. We have four top-100 guys!

If it was evenly distributed every team would have 3. So yay?

The problem isn't the major league team in isolation. The problem isn't the minor league system in isolation. The problem is that the major league team isn't good enough right now, and the minor league system is young, not ready to contribute, and a questionable level of star power. Hence, it looks like they are several years away from competing. Several years would put us like 7 or 8 years past 2018. Hell, it would put us like 5 years past 2021. That's a long time.

 

[8slim]

I think they are trying to be a playoff team. Didn't Sam Kennedy say at one point that the team was built to make the playoffs?

I don't think they are seriously trying to win a championship and I don't think they are seriously trying to tank either, which is why I think Chaim will be on the very hot seat if the Sox come in last place this year, which is in the realistic realm of possibilities at this point.

Regarding the bolded, I'm sure he said that. And I've read what Bloom has said as well. Obviously there's pretty big delta between talking, and executing the moves necessary to actually accomplish it. I imagine most franchises say their trying to be a playoff team in 2023. And I imagine most GMs squint and see how that can be done, if everything goes according to plan, and they get a fair amount of breaks and good fortune.

And obviously, it's 12/14/22. So I'm not dismissing their sincerity yet. I just don't see it thus far.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Boston has a solid system. Top third. Unfortunately, #1 and #2 overall are in the same division. Cleveland is #3. And there are teams like the Mets and Dodgers who are right there with Boston in farm development but who also seem willing to spend more to fill gaps. The Yankees also seem willing to spend more, and while their system is further behind Boston's, they have roughly a similar amount of top end talent in it.

Will Bloom improve the system enough to be able to compete with the Tampa/Cleveland model? Are they going to compete with the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees model?

It seems like they might be somewhere in between right now, but I think they'll either extend him now or resign Devers after next season and be more squarely in the Dodgers/Mets/Yankees bucket. Replicating what Tampa and Cleveland do is a great goal, but is pretty damn difficult with a more demanding fan base.

 

[Fishercat]

How many of those top 100 guys are Bloom’s? Mayer? And I guess we can give him credit for a clear tank season. But where is the evidence that Bloom’s guys are driving this resurgence? I’d say it’s too early to draw either a positive or negative inference at this point.

Yorke and Mayer I believe. Bello and Casas are the other two who were I believe both Dombrowski FO adds (IFA and draft respectively). With that said, I think Bleis and Raffaela (another 1-1 split) are both lurking as well longer term.

With that said, I agree it's too early to draw a definitive inference - spitballing I think only about 1/4 of Fangraphs Top 100 prospects were acquried between 2020-2022 - it's a longer term game.

 

[8slim]

Perhaps a dumb question, but is there a correlation between minor league system rank, and subsequent major league success? Say, 3-4 years post minor league rank? I'm wondering who was ranked in the top 5 in 2016/17, and how did they do in 2021/22? And of course, can one attribute the major league club success to the strong minor league system -- either in terms of players brought up, or players traded for MLB talent?

I'm sure this has all been analyzed exhaustively, but I'll cop to not following the minor league process much at all.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

MLB.com’s top systems before the ‘18, with each teams top prospects

1. SD- Tatis, Gore
2. ATL- Acuna, Wright
3. CWS- Jimenez, Kopech
4. TB- Honeywell, Adames
5. PHI- Sanchez, Kingery
6. NYY- Torres, Florial
7. OAK- Puk, Luzardo
8. CIN- Senzel, Greene
9. TOR- Vlad, Bichette
10. LAD- Buehler, Verdugo

 

[nvalvo]

How many of those top 100 guys are Bloom’s? Mayer? And I guess we can give him credit for a clear tank season. But where is the evidence that Bloom’s guys are driving this resurgence? I’d say it’s too early to draw either a positive or negative inference at this point.

Yorke and Mayer I believe. Bello and Casas are the other two who were I believe both Dombrowski FO adds (draft and IFA respectively)

With that said, I agree it's too early to draw a definitive inference - spitballing I think only about 1/4 of Fangraphs Top 100 prospects were acquried between 2020-2022 - it's a longer term game.

Piggybacking on Fishercat, a ton of the upper-to-mid-system depth is Bloom's. Miguel Bleis could easily be a top-100 guy by the end of this season, but Bloom also added a bunch of guys like Romero and Jordan and Binelas and Anthony and Valdez who fill out the 5-20 range of our system.

I also think it's worth noting that Bloom's most impactful moves in terms of rebuilding the talent in the organization — adding Pivetta/Seabold for half seasons of two fungible relievers and claiming/extending Garrett Whitlock — don't get factored into these discussions, but should.

Perhaps a dumb question, but is there a correlation between minor league system rank, and subsequent major league success? Say, 3-4 years post minor league rank? I'm wondering who was ranked in the top 5 in 2016/17, and how did they do in 2021/22? And of course, can one attribute the major league club success to the strong minor league system -- either in terms of players brought up, or players traded for MLB talent?

I'm sure this has all been analyzed exhaustively, but I'll cop to not following the minor league process much at all.

The SoxProspects rankings history page is a fascinating read for this kind of thing.

There are always some high-ceiling guys with question marks who are ranked highly but don't pan out (Henry Owens, Garin Cecchini...) and other guys who are betrayed by health, but when you have a top-20 prospects list that includes Bogaerts, Bradley, Betts, Vazquez, Devers, Barnes, Workman, and Margot — eight players who have had meaningful MLB careers, including several stars — as we did in 2014, that probably bodes well for your next few seasons.

In contrast, some of our more recent lists are less promising: Casas, Chavis, Houck, Mata, Beeks... you get down to positionless sluggers with strikeout problems and probable relief pitchers pretty quickly.

But these more recent lists don't quite look like 2014, but things are moving in that direction.

 

[BringBackMo]

No of course they could/would have someone in place of Mayer. That's not my point. My point is it feels like the system is currently Mayer plus a bunch of meh. Replace Mayer with another stud prospect and it's the same. Maybe my characterization of the rest of the system is off.

I don't care about both winning and having a top 3 system right now. If I thought they had a top 3 system, I'd be ok with where the major league team is right now. But it feels more like they have both a mediocre major league team, and a mediocre system. It's hard to see a path to contention in the next couple years.

Just to restate: It is definitely note a mediocre system. It's a good system, with the potential to be excellent.

Your broader point is fair. I tried to address it in my original post. I'm open to the idea that the Sox should stop trying to compete while rebuilding. Trying to do both MAY be undermining the effectiveness of each. If they decided to go full rebuild and trade Devers and Story, I could see the merits. And I'd guess that, in a vacuum, Bloom would endorse this approach. But going all the way back to Theo, Red Sox GMs have been unable to get ownership/the fan base to accept stepping back for two years in order to compete for eight (or whatever that formula would work out to today). I do think not trading JD last season in an attempt to secure the final playoff spot was a mistake because we didn't get under the luxury threshold, which lessens what we get for losing X...which comes at the expense of the rebuild.

I'm not sure exactly where I come down right now on the straight rebuild versus the hybrid approach. For sure, though, the hybrid is creating a dissonance that is pissing a lot of the fans off.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

If the poll were still open today, I'd change my vote to 0%; not because I think there was no plan, but because I think the plan is not working and my faith in Bloom turning it around is now closer to 0% than it is to 20%.

I'm agreeing with a lot of what you're saying @tims4wins, and I don't want to quote everything, but I think we're on a lot of the same page.

Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say). This no longer includes Casas or Bello, both of whom were here before Bloom, but also doesn't include someone like Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for. (Quick mention that there is a guy we all know out in Pittsburgh that has been on the job the same amount of time and has a top 4 system per Fangraphs and a top 7 per MLB; vs 9th and 11th, respectively).

While I believe he was hired to turn around the farm system and pretty much to negotiate the Mookie Deal (ie get under the before the 2020 season), I also seriously doubt that FSG expected that to come with flushing $415m down the toilet in 2022 and 2023 (number comes from the 2022 Luxury Tax payroll and the 2023 Luxury Tax payroll, minus $50m for Sale as that is not Bloom's fault. I'm also assuming we'll spend a combined $30m or so on "meh" players like Segura at 2b, Wacha and Syndergaard for the rotation - and that a team with that roster is going to suck - maybe they'll surprise like they did in 2021 but with the current roster and what's left on the FA market, I'm betting on the 67% outcome like 2020 and 2022 and not the 33% outcome of 2021).

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I kind of believe FSG's philosophy (and it's been a good one) is to give their Front Office around $225m to use each year (or whatever the Luxury Tax number is) and then to let them spend it. In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.

Thus far for next season (using projected arb totals from MLBTR) Bloom has spent approximately $58m combined on Hernandez, Matt Barnes, Chris Martin, Bradley Jr (buyout), Hosmer, James Paxton, Brasier, Arroyo, JRodriguez, T Pham (buyout), Refsnyder, Arroyo and JTaylor. I'm not feeling great about that ~$60m and it's ability to achieve much of consequence.

Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that. However I think the standings in 2020 (yes, 60 games) and 2022 are a lot more like what 2023 and probably 2024 are going to look like, especially losing two of our three best players from those teams.

Maybe Bloom swings some amazing trades like posters on here have suggested, it's possible. But based on what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade), and whatever he gave up to take on $5.7m of Eric Hosmer and $1.5m of Tommy Pham for some reason I can't ascertain AND the guys he has elected NOT to trade in wasted seasons (Eovaldi, Martinez, Hill and Wacha) I have very little confidence in this transpiring.

As mentioned, I isolate the two. I have between 0-5% confidence in Bloom turning this around. I have 100% confidence that if 2023 turns out like 2020 and 2022 FSG will hire someone else and hope for better.

 

[tims4wins]

If the poll were still open today, I'd change my vote to 0%; not because I think there was no plan, but because I think the plan is not working and my faith in Bloom turning it around is now closer to 0% than it is to 20%.

I'm agreeing with a lot of what you're saying @tims4wins, and I don't want to quote everything, but I think we're on a lot of the same page.

Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say). This no longer includes Casas or Bello, both of whom were here before Bloom, but also doesn't include someone like Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for. (Quick mention that there is a guy we all know out in Pittsburgh that has been on the job the same amount of time and has a top 4 system per Fangraphs and a top 7 per MLB; vs 9th and 11th, respectively).

While I believe he was hired to turn around the farm system and pretty much to negotiate the Mookie Deal (ie get under the before the 2020 season), I also seriously doubt that FSG expected that to come with flushing $415m down the toilet in 2022 and 2023 (number comes from the 2022 Luxury Tax payroll and the 2023 Luxury Tax payroll, minus $50m for Sale as that is not Bloom's fault. I'm also assuming we'll spend a combined $30m or so on "meh" players like Segura at 2b, Wacha and Syndergaard for the rotation - and that a team with that roster is going to suck - maybe they'll surprise like they did in 2021 but with the current roster and what's left on the FA market, I'm betting on the 67% outcome like 2020 and 2022 and not the 33% outcome of 2021).

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I kind of believe FSG's philosophy (and it's been a good one) is to give their Front Office around $225m to use each year (or whatever the Luxury Tax number is) and then to let them spend it. In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.

Thus far for next season (using projected arb totals from MLBTR) Bloom has spent approximately $58m combined on Hernandez, Matt Barnes, Chris Martin, Bradley Jr (buyout), Hosmer, James Paxton, Brasier, Arroyo, JRodriguez, T Pham (buyout), Refsnyder, Arroyo and JTaylor. I'm not feeling great about that ~$60m and it's ability to achieve much of consequence.

Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that. However I think the standings in 2020 (yes, 60 games) and 2022 are a lot more like what 2023 and probably 2024 are going to look like, especially losing two of our three best players from those teams.

Maybe Bloom swings some amazing trades like posters on here have suggested, it's possible. But based on what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade), and whatever he gave up to take on $5.7m of Eric Hosmer and $1.5m of Tommy Pham for some reason I can't ascertain AND the guys he has elected NOT to trade in wasted seasons (Eovaldi, Martinez, Hill and Wacha) I have very little confidence in this transpiring.

As mentioned, I isolate the two. I have between 0-5% confidence in Bloom turning this around. I have 100% confidence that if 2023 turns out like 2020 and 2022 FSG will hire someone else and hope for better.

Very well stated. In complete agreement.

 

[Fishercat]

(Quick mention that there is a guy we all know out in Pittsburgh that has been on the job the same amount of time and has a top 4 system per Fangraphs and a top 7 per MLB; vs 9th and 11th, respectively).

I think this is actually a good point just to highlight the longer term aspects of prospect building and, honestly, how many factors outside of GM/Ops Manager quality may come into it. Pirates Top 10 from MLB.com

1. Henry Davis - first overall pick in the 2021 draft
2. Termarr Johnson - fourth overall pick in 2022 draft
3. Quinn Priester - 18th overall pick in the 2019 draft (pre-BC)
4. Liover Peguero - Acquired via trade for Starling Marte (he has been a 2-3 WAR player the last three years)
5. Nick Gonzales - seventh overall pick in 2020 draft
6. Endy Rodriguez - Acquired in trade for Joe Musgrove (who has 7 WAR in the last two years)
7. Bubba Chandler - third round pick in 2021 draft
8. Mike Burrows - 11th round pick in the 2018 draft (pre-BC)
9. Anthony Solometo - 2nd round pick in the 2021 draft
10. Thomas Harrington - 36th overall pick in 2022 draft

So a lot of BC picks which is good, but the Top 5 are four Top 18 picks (three of those Top 10) and a trade for a fairly valuable outfielder (like I think we'd love a Peguero prospect back for Renfroe for instance so it's not shade but there is a price there and he is certainly not any kind of certainty right now as a prospect overall). The bottom are all reasonably high draft picks as well from the very top of those rounds and one cost a rather valuable pitcher. Obviously, time will shift a ton of this but I think it highlights a bit of the upside of BC's farm has is because, well, they had a lot of high draft picks and no real external competing pressure that allows them to trade a guy like Joe Musgrove. If the Sox traded Joe Musgrove away after 2020 we'd still be talking about that.

 

[BringBackMo]

If the poll were still open today, I'd change my vote to 0%; not because I think there was no plan, but because I think the plan is not working and my faith in Bloom turning it around is now closer to 0% than it is to 20%.

I'm agreeing with a lot of what you're saying @tims4wins, and I don't want to quote everything, but I think we're on a lot of the same page.

Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say). This no longer includes Casas or Bello, both of whom were here before Bloom, but also doesn't include someone like Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for. (Quick mention that there is a guy we all know out in Pittsburgh that has been on the job the same amount of time and has a top 4 system per Fangraphs and a top 7 per MLB; vs 9th and 11th, respectively).

While I believe he was hired to turn around the farm system and pretty much to negotiate the Mookie Deal (ie get under the before the 2020 season), I also seriously doubt that FSG expected that to come with flushing $415m down the toilet in 2022 and 2023 (number comes from the 2022 Luxury Tax payroll and the 2023 Luxury Tax payroll, minus $50m for Sale as that is not Bloom's fault. I'm also assuming we'll spend a combined $30m or so on "meh" players like Segura at 2b, Wacha and Syndergaard for the rotation - and that a team with that roster is going to suck - maybe they'll surprise like they did in 2021 but with the current roster and what's left on the FA market, I'm betting on the 67% outcome like 2020 and 2022 and not the 33% outcome of 2021).

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I kind of believe FSG's philosophy (and it's been a good one) is to give their Front Office around $225m to use each year (or whatever the Luxury Tax number is) and then to let them spend it. In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.

Thus far for next season (using projected arb totals from MLBTR) Bloom has spent approximately $58m combined on Hernandez, Matt Barnes, Chris Martin, Bradley Jr (buyout), Hosmer, James Paxton, Brasier, Arroyo, JRodriguez, T Pham (buyout), Refsnyder, Arroyo and JTaylor. I'm not feeling great about that ~$60m and it's ability to achieve much of consequence.

Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that. However I think the standings in 2020 (yes, 60 games) and 2022 are a lot more like what 2023 and probably 2024 are going to look like, especially losing two of our three best players from those teams.

Maybe Bloom swings some amazing trades like posters on here have suggested, it's possible. But based on what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade), and whatever he gave up to take on $5.7m of Eric Hosmer and $1.5m of Tommy Pham for some reason I can't ascertain AND the guys he has elected NOT to trade in wasted seasons (Eovaldi, Martinez, Hill and Wacha) I have very little confidence in this transpiring.

As mentioned, I isolate the two. I have between 0-5% confidence in Bloom turning this around. I have 100% confidence that if 2023 turns out like 2020 and 2022 FSG will hire someone else and hope for better.

Pretty wild to read everything you give Bloom credit for in your post and then to reconcile that with saying you have zero to five percent faith in him.

• Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say).
• Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for.
• In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.
• Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that.
• what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade)

I really do wonder sometimes about what we as fans have become.

 

[tims4wins]

Pretty wild to read everything you give Bloom credit for in your post and then to reconcile that with saying you have zero to five percent faith in him.

• Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say).
• Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for.
• In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.
• Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that.
• what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade)

I really do wonder sometimes about what we as fans have become.

I think it’s pretty simple. The Sox are a mediocre team with a maybe slightly above average system, and just let two home grown stars walk when they are a financial power in MLB, with imminent threat of a third star walking soon. We don’t want or expect titles every other year. We want a competitive team that is interesting to follow. The Sox are neither of those things right now so we are questioning the plan and whether Chaim is the right person for the job.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Pretty wild to read everything you give Bloom credit for in your post and then to reconcile that with saying you have zero to five percent faith in him.

• Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say).
• Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for.
• In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.
• Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that.
• what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade)

I really do wonder sometimes about what we as fans have become.

I'm trying to be fair. All of his moves haven't sucked. Some have been very good. I think more of his moves have been bad than good, especially in regards to the major league roster. I also think he has done a terrible job assessing when his team is "out of it" and maximizing assets that won't be returning (last year), a horrendous job in reading the market and he's put together pitching staffs that have flat out sucked in 2 of 3 seasons - and I think it's trending that way this year too.

I don't think rebuilding and trying to get to the Atlanta / Houston model is a bad plan. It's a good plan. It's probably the "right" plan. I just don't think we have the right person in place to execute that plan. Yes, he has singed / drafted some good to excellent prospects, he also got nothing back that appears any good in prospects for Betts, Benintendi, Renfroe nor anything at all for Eovaldi, Martinez, Hill and Wacha. If he had, I'd think differently.

 

[BringBackMo]

I think it’s pretty simple. The Sox are a mediocre team with a maybe slightly above average system, and just let two home grown stars walk when they are a financial power in MLB, with imminent threat of a third star walking soon. We don’t want or expect titles every other year. We want a competitive team that is interesting to follow. The Sox are neither of those things right now so we are questioning the plan and whether Chaim is the right person for the job.

I've said this multiple times: It is certainly fair to ask that question. It's fair to ask whether someone else could do the job better. I just don't see how it's reasonable for anyone to say that they have zero percent faith in Bloom.

 

[tims4wins]

I've said this multiple times: It is certainly fair to ask that question. It's fair to ask whether someone else could do the job better. I just don't see how it's reasonable for anyone to say that they have zero percent faith in Bloom.

That is fair. I voted 20%. It would be closer to 5-10% today. But not 0%.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'm open to the idea that the Sox should stop trying to compete while rebuilding. Trying to do both MAY be undermining the effectiveness of each. If they decided to go full rebuild and trade Devers and Story, I could see the merits. And I'd guess that, in a vacuum, Bloom would endorse this approach. But going all the way back to Theo, Red Sox GMs have been unable to get ownership/the fan base to accept stepping back for two years in order to compete for eight (or whatever that formula would work out to today). I do think not trading JD last season in an attempt to secure the final playoff spot was a mistake because we didn't get under the luxury threshold, which lessens what we get for losing X...which comes at the expense of the rebuild.

I think this is where I am at, with the caveat that they should stop telling everyone that they aren't rebuilding when in fact they are. This is why people are going insane and saying they have no plan. They have one, but you can't recognize it because they keep talking about winning now, which is just this wishful overlay on top of the actual plan and probably isn't happening anyway.

 

[Fishercat]

I guess one other factor to throw in here is that... the AL East was freaking brutal last year. The Red Sox weren't just the best "last place" team... they were the best by ten games. They would have also been the best fourth place finisher in any division last year by at least four games and that's without them spending a ton of time playing the AL East. The Sox were 26-50 versus the East, 18-15 vs. the Central, 25-8 vs. the West, and 9-11 in interleague. This obviously only does so much when the same teams will be there next year, but the 2023 schedule also is a more balanced affair and that may also help offset a little of this. Little comfort but I think it's fair to also posit that the 2022 Red Sox - with the amount of resources hurt/sunk and the division they were in, were uniquely disadvantaged in a way the FO couldn't control.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I guess one other factor to throw in here is that... the AL East was freaking brutal last year. The Red Sox weren't just the best "last place" team... they were the best by ten games. They would have also been the best fourth place finisher in any division last year by at least four games and that's without them spending a ton of time playing the AL East. The Sox were 26-50 versus the East, 18-15 vs. the Central, 25-8 vs. the West, and 9-11 in interleague. This obviously only does so much when the same teams will be there next year, but the 2023 schedule also is a more balanced affair and that may also help offset a little of this. Little comfort but I think it's fair to also posit that the 2022 Red Sox - with the amount of resources hurt/sunk and the division they were in, were uniquely disadvantaged in a way the FO couldn't control.

If only there were a mechanism to have dealt players they wouldn't be retaining for tax relief and more lottery tickets to add to the farm system you're ostensibly trying to build. Isn't that what a good front office would have done? Maybe tried to add to the core by moving up in the draft and getting a player like Benintendi, a piece you could deal in the future (Cespedes), and someone whom would become a very valuable pitcher (Rodriguez). Sure, they got plenty of nothing in 2014 too (Kelly Johnson, Allen Craig). Wasn't there a team once that did something like that just after a truly surprising excellent season?

At a certain level, I do hope Bloom and the FO is just pandering to the fan base with their "October baseball" talk (because of how much Theo was criticized for actually thinking people were smart enough to handle the truth in his infamous Bridge Year comments). That would be much better than them actually believing that a line up of McGuire, Casas, Story, lame duck Devers, Segura, Yoshida, Hernandez, Verdugo and a rotation of Whitlock, Bello, Houck, "Wacha" and "Syndergaard" with whatever you get from Sale and Paxton is actually a good baseball team.

 

[LostinNJ]

There's too much we don't know if we want to assess Bloom's job performance. I strongly suspect that people above him in the organizational hierarchy have taken a stand against huge, multi-year contracts. We can debate whether that's a smart stance or not, but if it is what they've decided, Bloom can't be held responsible. He's trying to operate within the constraints he's been given. But admittedly, this is a guess.

It seems clear what the utlimate goal is: they want to emulate the Braves and Astros, teams that can eschew the albatross contracts because they have a constant flow of top talent coming up through the system. For that reason, I'd be astonished if we see Bloom trade anyone from the top ten in the near future. We can expect them to try to lock up young superstars for several years before they reach thair arb years. And we may have to get used to the idea that they will let great players leave as free agents (like Springer, Correa, and Freeman) instead of paying tons of money for their declining years. Financial flexibility will be an important strategy.

For now, they seem to be in the strategic middle as they continue to reset: trying to compete without sabotaging the long-range plan. From a fan's perspective, that's a very frustrating place to be.

 

[Auger34]

Not adding a ton to the thread but I am legitimately curious how anyone could vote anything lower than 20 or higher than 60.
I mean this could be the most incompetent organization ever and there would still be a set out plan (it’s just a matter of if it would work)….then the people who voted 70 or above, wow I wish I had your sense of undying optimism.

 

[Auger34]

Pretty wild to read everything you give Bloom credit for in your post and then to reconcile that with saying you have zero to five percent faith in him.

• Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say).
• Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for.
• In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.
• Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that.
• what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade)

I really do wonder sometimes about what we as fans have become.

In regards to the top Bullet point, does Chaim really get a lot of credit for that? I mean, everyone has argued that when Bloom came in the farm system was bereft of talent and depth. Wouldn’t any high draft pick in a recent draft come in and be ranked highly?

 

[tims4wins]

For now, they seem to be in the strategic middle as they continue to reset: trying to compete without sabotaging the long-range plan. From a fan's perspective, that's a very frustrating place to be.

Feels kind of similar to where the Pats are, too. Not good enough to compete right now, but won't tank. Vastly different sports in so many ways, but it's frustrating.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

There's too much we don't know if we want to assess Bloom's job performance. I strongly suspect that people above him in the organizational hierarchy have taken a stand against huge, multi-year contracts. We can debate whether that's a smart stance or not, but if it is what they've decided, Bloom can't be held responsible. He's trying to operate within the constraints he's been given. But admittedly, this is a guess.

It seems clear what the utlimate goal is: they want to emulate the Braves and Astros, teams that can eschew the albatross contracts because they have a constant flow of top talent coming up through the system. For that reason, I'd be astonished if we see Bloom trade anyone from the top ten in the near future. We can expect them to try to lock up young superstars for several years before they reach thair arb years. And we may have to get used to the idea that they will let great players leave as free agents (like Springer, Correa, and Freeman) instead of paying tons of money for their declining years. Financial flexibility will be an important strategy.

For now, they seem to be in the strategic middle as they continue to reset: trying to compete without sabotaging the long-range plan. From a fan's perspective, that's a very frustrating place to be.

Totally fair. Why does that mean they can't extend themselves to sign players like Stroman, Tallion, Bassitt, Senga, Abreu as opposed to banking on bargain basement deals. Maybe I'm the only one whom would rather have spent $55m this year on Senga (call it $16.5m), Bassitt (call it $22m) and Abreu ($20m) as opposed to similar for Barnes, Martin, Bradley Jr, Hosmer, Paxton, JRodriguez, Refsnyder, Pivetta, Brasier, Arroyo and Taylor.

I'd look at McGuire, Casas, Story, lame duck Devers, Valdez, Yoshida, Hernandez, Verdugo and Abreu with Bassitt, Tallion, Whitlock, Bello, Houck then Jansen and a bunch of MLB minimum young players in the 'pen a heck of a lot more favorably than what we have now and what it seems likely as additions. Not to mention whatever we'd get in dealing pieces like Pivetta - probably at least a prospect we'd slot somewhere in the 15 range.

 

[snowmanny]

I really do wonder sometimes about what we as fans have become.

I think we’ve come to expect what the Red Sox told us to expect over the years. A team that gets a ton of revenue from the fans and will spend it on the team. A team that will have a successful minor league pipeline. A team that will be competitive every year. A team that respects the legacy of the franchise and the history of the franchise and recognizes the value of great players being connected to the franchise even after their playing days are over. A franchise that will improve the fam experience at Fenway.

For the most part the ownership has delivered on those promises. And I generally have faith in the ownership.

And while I am not criticizing you if you are saying those types of expectations reek of entitlement, but if the ownership sees things differently now then they should let us know. They’ve told us to expect a contender in 2023, which honestly surprised me and is more than I expect for this year. And I’m not particularly upset over anything that has happened thus far. But I get why a lot of people on this board are not only pretty skeptical, but a little pissed.

 

[chrisfont9]

Not adding a ton to the thread but I am legitimately curious how anyone could vote anything lower than 20 or higher than 60.
I mean this could be the most incompetent organization ever and there would still be a set out plan (it’s just a matter of if it would work)….then the people who voted 70 or above, wow I wish I had your sense of undying optimism.

I voted higher but maybe would drop it to 60. My guess is Chaim wants to rebuild and is exactly the guy you want doing that, but ownership doesn't like being bashed for the Mookie disaster so they overcompensated with Xander, a very good player but if you're rebuilding and you have a Boras client on an expiring contract, you deal him unless he's a future cornerstone like Devers (who maybe you should also deal?). So we have this mixed messaging and it's basically ownership getting in Chaim's way.

 

[BringBackMo]

I think we’ve come to expect what the Red Sox told us to expect over the years. A team that gets a ton of revenue from the fans and will spend it on the team. A team that will have a successful minor league pipeline. A team that will be competitive every year. A team that respects the legacy of the franchise and the history of the franchise and recognizes the value of great players being connected to the franchise even after their playing days are over. A franchise that will improve the fam experience at Fenway.

For the most part the ownership has delivered on those promises. And I generally have faith in the ownership.

And while I am not criticizing you if you are saying those types of expectations reek of entitlement, but if the ownership sees things differently now then they should let us know. They’ve told us to expect a contender in 2023, which honestly surprised me and is more than I expect for this year. And I’m not particularly upset over anything that has happened thus far. But I get why a lot of people on this board are not only pretty skeptical, but a little pissed.

I have said a couple of times today that I can see why the Sox might choose to pivot away from a hybrid contend/rebuild approach and just go full rebuild. I added that I'm not sure I necessarily favor that approach but am open to it, but that, either way, the hybrid approach is creating a dissonance that I think is pissing fans off. So I very much understand what you're saying, and to some degree agree with it.

In any case, I think the jury is still out on whether the hybrid approach is a mistake. I'm sort of starting to lean against it BUT the Sox' system has undeniably improved greatly under Bloom, and the team did make the ALCS in 2021 and, with absolutely shit injury luck last season, was in contention for a playoff spot for a while before cratering and finishing in last place, with a 500-ish record, in the toughest division in baseball. So maybe there is a case to be made for this hybrid approach. As I mentioned, I'm starting to come around to the idea of a straight rebuild now that we've lost X. In addition to that being an emotional gut punch, it opens still another area of the team that will require improvement if the Sox plan on contending for the playoffs in 2023. Perhaps it's better to trade Devers and Story for prospects now and go full rebuild for two years, especially since, as I indicated earlier, Bloom recently predicted that the 2023 AL East will be the toughest division in baseball history.

 

[ehaz]

Pretty wild to read everything you give Bloom credit for in your post and then to reconcile that with saying you have zero to five percent faith in him.

• Yes, Bloom has come in and done a good to very good job rebuilding the farm system to somewhere in the top 10 in the game (seems to be a pretty fair consensus average). Looking at SoxProspects.com, he "gets credit" for 5 of the top 10 with Mayer, Bleis, Yorke, Romero and Anthony - and 10 of the top 20 going further down the list (so about half the farm I think is fair to say).
• Whitlock whom Bloom gets a ton of credit for.
• In years where it looks promising, they seem to have no problem going over the tax - and I don't blame them for either of these mindsets. It's worked REALLY FREAKING WELL for the past 20 years.
• Yes, Bloom had an excellent 2021. Everything he did seemingly went right - most notably acquiring Pivetta and Whitlock and I credit him for that.
• what he's gotten back in aggregate for dealing Betts, Benintendi, Workman (great trade), Renfroe, Vazquez (good trade)

I really do wonder sometimes about what we as fans have become.

I can't see how we can give Bloom so much credit for rebuilding the farm system yet. It's just way too early.

Romero and Anthony were literally just drafted. They've each played fewer than 20 games. The fact that they're top 10 in the Soxprospects rankings has as much to do with the state of the farm before Bloom took over and the guys who have graduated from prospect status as it has to do with these being good or bad draft picks. Replace them with other high-ceiling HS bats that went in the first two rounds and they'd just be replaced in the top 10 by them.

I give a ton of credit to Bloom for Whitlock and Bleis. Signing 16 year olds is tough and most flame out extremely quickly. That looks like a win right now. I'll give him credit for Yorke too. Mayer was just luck.

Then you have the trades.
- Positives: Workman
- Potential/trending positive: Vazquez
- Potential/trending negative: Renfroe
- Negatives: Benintendi, Betts

So the two deadline deals look pretty good so far. The three larger deals during the offseason don't look great. Benintendi was a sell-low, so I'm more willing to say you win some you lose some there. Renfroe puzzled me then and puzzles me now. The return seemed light considering you had to take on JBJ's money and it looks even worse now. You can't even find Binelas and Hamilton in the top 30 of the Soxprospects list.

Forget about relitigating the decision to trade Betts. The return sucked. If Verdugo bounces back to his 2020 levels it looks better, but Wong and Downs weren't just throw-ins. Downs was a top 100-ish prospect that in retrospect, Bloom whiffed on. There was the weird decision with Graterol, who in the deal at first, but Downs was also surrounded in the Dodgers system with other guys who have since panned out or at least look like better prospects. I'll assume that Lux and May were never on the table. That's fine. But I think it's safe to assume that LA was not going to nix the deal because you wanted Tony Gonsolin, Josiah Gray, Diego Cartaya, Keibert Ruiz or Miguel Vargas instead of Downs.

And then you have the deals Bloom didn't make--like not trading JD or Eovaldi to get under the tax at the deadline/at least not let them walk for nothing.

 

[Fishercat]

If only there were a mechanism to have dealt players they wouldn't be retaining for tax relief and more lottery tickets to add to the farm system you're ostensibly trying to build. Isn't that what a good front office would have done? Maybe tried to add to the core by moving up in the draft and getting a player like Benintendi, a piece you could deal in the future (Cespedes), and someone whom would become a very valuable pitcher (Rodriguez). Sure, they got plenty of nothing in 2014 too (Kelly Johnson, Allen Craig). Wasn't there a team once that did something like that just after a truly surprising excellent season?

At a certain level, I do hope Bloom and the FO is just pandering to the fan base with their "October baseball" talk (because of how much Theo was criticized for actually thinking people were smart enough to handle the truth in his infamous Bridge Year comments). That would be much better than them actually believing that a line up of McGuire, Casas, Story, lame duck Devers, Segura, Yoshida, Hernandez, Verdugo and a rotation of Whitlock, Bello, Houck, "Wacha" and "Syndergaard" with whatever you get from Sale and Paxton is actually a good baseball team.

Totally fair. Why does that mean they can't extend themselves to sign players like Stroman, Tallion, Bassitt, Senga, Abreu as opposed to banking on bargain basement deals. Maybe I'm the only one whom would rather have spent $55m this year on Senga (call it $16.5m), Bassitt (call it $22m) and Abreu ($20m) as opposed to similar for Barnes, Martin, Bradley Jr, Hosmer, Paxton, JRodriguez, Refsnyder, Pivetta, Brasier, Arroyo and Taylor.

I'd look at McGuire, Casas, Story, lame duck Devers, Valdez, Yoshida, Hernandez, Verdugo and Abreu with Bassitt, Tallion, Whitlock, Bello, Houck then Jansen and a bunch of MLB minimum young players in the 'pen a heck of a lot more favorably than what we have now and what it seems likely as additions. Not to mention whatever we'd get in dealing pieces like Pivetta - probably at least a prospect we'd slot somewhere in the 15 range.

If you want to make the argument they should have traded more assets at the '22 trade deadline, I'm not gonna disagree. I'm don't know the full 2022 context - if there was an actual market for the talent and if there were reasons a trade didn't materialize. I also think that 2014 Lester, Lackey, and Miller were probably more valuable as trade chips than anything the 2022 Red Sox were in the market to trade unless you want them to pull the trigger on X (and if he'd let them which seems very unlikely) - maybe Wacha? Maybe Eo? It's a bit of a tougher spot. I agree I was personally a bit disappointed they didn't find a place to be a bit more aggressive in moving on from 2022 but consider that relatively small given we don't know what the Sox draft pick will bring or how much lower trading Wacha and Eo would bring them (maybe below that Cubs/Angels group?) - especially for a draft that hasn't happened yet. Like, I'm not going to say it's all sunshine and rainbows and can respect a desire to commit to one way and then go, but sometimes things just don't work out fully and I think the 2014 Red Sox were pretty clearly worse of a team than the 2022 Sox at least at the deadline portion.

For the second quote, I don't think that's operating in a reality that exists. A big reason the Sox were as disappointing as they were last year is because they were relying heavily on MLB minimum players in roles who didn't deliver - they had eight players with negative WAR who played in over 50 games. They also can't un-spend money - the majority of those players are from contracts prior to this FA period. I bet Chaim would love to un-do the JBJ trade, or Barnes extension (eh, maybe with how RP contracts have been...), and SD would definitely love to not sign and pay Hosmer, but that's just not where it stands. And you still need people to play those roles. Let's say they did that AND could somehow undo all of those deals (SD is paying Hosmer), is that even a win? Chris Bassitt isn't a huge upgrade on Pivetta, Senga is a major unknown, Abreu is a definite upgrade at least for now, but you still need people to pitch relief, play the outfield, play utility roles, etc. I think in the Sox ideal world JBJ doesn't happen, the Barnes extension didn't exist, and they can take that money and put it towards one of those guys you listed while keeping Pivetta, Refsnyder, Arroyo, and the cheaper bullpen arms. But that's kind of cherrypicking the past here. We also know they were at least in on Abreu and Senga, they just got beat. We can be mad on that of course or if you think that's an indictment on the FO I'm okay with that too, but it doesn't seem for lack of effort or willingness to try and get that tier of FA.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I guess one other factor to throw in here is that... the AL East was freaking brutal last year. The Red Sox weren't just the best "last place" team... they were the best by ten games. They would have also been the best fourth place finisher in any division last year by at least four games and that's without them spending a ton of time playing the AL East. The Sox were 26-50 versus the East, 18-15 vs. the Central, 25-8 vs. the West, and 9-11 in interleague. This obviously only does so much when the same teams will be there next year, but the 2023 schedule also is a more balanced affair and that may also help offset a little of this. Little comfort but I think it's fair to also posit that the 2022 Red Sox - with the amount of resources hurt/sunk and the division they were in, were uniquely disadvantaged in a way the FO couldn't control.

AL East will be just as brutal this year and for several years to come. That's one of the reasons I am wondering out loud how hot Chaim's seat is/will be.

 

[astrozombie]

If it was evenly distributed every team would have 3. So yay?

The problem isn't the major league team in isolation. The problem isn't the minor league system in isolation. The problem is that the major league team isn't good enough right now, and the minor league system is young, not ready to contribute, and a questionable level of star power. Hence, it looks like they are several years away from competing. Several years would put us like 7 or 8 years past 2018. Hell, it would put us like 5 years past 2021. That's a long time.

This is a big part of my problem with the team and why this offseason continues to be an exercise in frustration. The farm is full with mediocre talent (as in not awful, but not elite) and the major team is more or less spare parts and Devers. If they wanted to build the farm they would have traded X, JDM, Eo, etc. at the deadline. They didn't. If they wanted to sign FAs to build the team from scratch (a bad strategy, but a strategy nonetheless) they would have done something more substantial than claim they were talking to everyone. They didn't. They wanted to offload Betts so they could keep future homegrown talent like X and Devers (Devers is good as gone at this point). They didn't. But they did sign Jansen and Yoshida which... I have no idea why. Jansen is a pick-up for a team who wants to win now and Yoshida is a lotto ticket mystery man (I hope he pans out, but who knows) who the Sox might have overpaid for. I would be fine with all of this if it looked like the farm was close to producing at least a few guys who could contribute in the coming years and/or be the next core. It does not look that way to me at this point.

 

[pedro1999mvp]

This is a big part of my problem with the team and why this offseason continues to be an exercise in frustration. The farm is full with mediocre talent (as in not awful, but not elite) and the major team is more or less spare parts and Devers. If they wanted to build the farm they would have traded X, JDM, Eo, etc. at the deadline. They didn't. If they wanted to sign FAs to build the team from scratch (a bad strategy, but a strategy nonetheless) they would have done something more substantial than claim they were talking to everyone. They didn't. They wanted to offload Betts so they could keep future homegrown talent like X and Devers (Devers is good as gone at this point). They didn't. But they did sign Jansen and Yoshida which... I have no idea why. Jansen is a pick-up for a team who wants to win now and Yoshida is a lotto ticket mystery man (I hope he pans out, but who knows) who the Sox might have overpaid for. I would be fine with all of this if it looked like the farm was close to producing at least a few guys who could contribute in the coming years and/or be the next core. It does not look that way to me at this point.

SOSH needs a like button. This is spot on, in my opinion. If they have a plan, it seems to be a little bit all over the place. Sort of building up the farm, but not trading key guys at the deadline to get prospects back and get under the tax. Trading Betts so you have the money to resign Bogey and Devers, but then not signing Bogey and probably not Devers.

 

[8slim]

I think it’s pretty simple. The Sox are a mediocre team with a maybe slightly above average system, and just let two home grown stars walk when they are a financial power in MLB, with imminent threat of a third star walking soon. We don’t want or expect titles every other year. We want a competitive team that is interesting to follow. The Sox are neither of those things right now so we are questioning the plan and whether Chaim is the right person for the job.

This is very well said. I really bristle when people here attack others fandom, and throw around words like "entitled". Obviously there's always going to be a subset of the fanbase that has unreasonable expectations, or an axe to grind for whatever reason. But I think that let's the FO off too easy.

I've been thinking back to the offseason of 2013 a lot. I don't need to recap that in detail for people here, but I do recall personally being underwhelmed by the acquisitions heading into that year. At the same time, it was easier to buy into the "bridge year" concept then because (a) we had a lot of young talent right on the precipice of breaking through to the big club, and (b) we had a lot of productive and interesting players still on the major league roster to follow (Papi, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester).

I just continue to struggle to place where we are on that continuum right now. Is the improved farm system going to start meaningfully funnelling guys to the majors? Are we bridging to '24? '25? And what's the foundation we're building upon? Devers? Story?

Hence why I have low faith in the plan. Anyone can *say* they have a plan, but it's just not terribly tangible in terms of outcome for me yet.

 

[tims4wins]

This is very well said. I really bristle when people here attack others fandom, and throw around words like "entitled". Obviously there's always going to be a subset of the fanbase that has unreasonable expectations, or an axe to grind for whatever reason. But I think that let's the FO off too easy.

I've been thinking back to the offseason of 2013 a lot. I don't need to recap that in detail for people here, but I do recall personally being underwhelmed by the acquisitions heading into that year. At the same time, it was easier to buy into the "bridge year" concept then because (a) we had a lot of young talent right on the precipice of breaking through to the big club, and (b) we had a lot of productive and interesting players still on the major league roster to follow (Papi, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester).

I just continue to struggle to place where we are on that continuum right now. Is the improved farm system going to start meaningfully funnelling guys to the majors? Are we bridging to '24? '25? And what's the foundation we're building upon? Devers? Story?

Hence why I have low faith in the plan. Anyone can *say* they have a plan, but it's just not terribly tangible in terms of outcome for me yet.

Exactly. Who are the stars of the Next Great Red Sox Team? I honestly have zero idea. If the answer to this question is Mayer, then it's a failure of a plan.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I think it’s pretty simple. The Sox are a mediocre team with a maybe slightly above average system, and just let two home grown stars walk when they are a financial power in MLB, with imminent threat of a third star walking soon. We don’t want or expect titles every other year. We want a competitive team that is interesting to follow. The Sox are neither of those things right now so we are questioning the plan and whether Chaim is the right person for the job.

This is exactly where I am, with the added factor that when they let Mookie go we were told that they needed to avoid paying him so they could re-up X and Devers. And now they've let X walk and apparently weren't remotely in the ballpark for keeping him, and will likely let Devers walk as well. These were the three players we thought they would build around, and instead they've been removed.

So when we're told one thing and then repeatedly see others, it's hard to have a lot of faith in the FO and ownership that they have some sort of solid plan for putting forth a competitive product.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I think it’s pretty simple. The Sox are a mediocre team with a maybe slightly above average system, and just let two home grown stars walk when they are a financial power in MLB, with imminent threat of a third star walking soon. We don’t want or expect titles every other year. We want a competitive team that is interesting to follow. The Sox are neither of those things right now so we are questioning the plan and whether Chaim is the right person for the job.

I agree, and I’ll go a step further by saying that, for me at least, it isn’t about the departure of any one player specifically whether that player is Xander or Mookie or Marwin Gonzalez. Players have departed many times during my fandom, and I’ve generally been ok with it. It’s that I don’t think there is a plan to satisfactorily replace that player beyond “get some good ‘value’ plays and hope that things break your way” or maybe - maybe! - “see if something falls into your lap after the music stops” (like it did with Story last year). Like, I see all this discussion about, for instance, Correa and I just think “why bother even talking about it?” Or people concocting these elaborate trade scenarios - I don’t think any of it is going to happen. Even if they decide to hit reset and trade Devers, I’d expect return to be more like the Beni trade’s than what fans might hope for. They’ll make moves, don’t get me wrong, and they might even work out. But it isn’t something I would bet a ton of money on.

I also want to acknowledge that I understand that a lot of people find this discussion tiresome. I agree!

 

[DiamondLou]

Exactly. Who are the stars of the Next Great Red Sox Team? I honestly have zero idea. If the answer to this question is Mayer, then it's a failure of a plan.

Decided to look at the 2004 World Series roster, can't identify one blue chip prospect on that squad.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Exactly. Who are the stars of the Next Great Red Sox Team? I honestly have zero idea. If the answer to this question is Mayer, then it's a failure of a plan.

They need high end talent and frankly like you I don't see it. They have "solid" talent. But no stars. Is the plan to build with solid talent? If so I fear that is going to be an exercise in futility.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Exactly. Who are the stars of the Next Great Red Sox Team? I honestly have zero idea. If the answer to this question is Mayer, then it's a failure of a plan.

And what happens if Mayer sucks, has his development stall, or gets injured? Having Devers around gives you at least something to build off of. If you lose him, what the hell do you have here? Story? Yoshida (maybe)? Casas (maybe)? We haven’t had this kind of star uncertainty in quite a while.

Devers is key for me. Keep him and I can see the plan and dream. Lose him and I think you’ve unnecessarily introduced a ton of volatility to a franchise that, quite frankly, shouldn’t have this much.

 

[tims4wins]

And what happens if Mayer sucks, has his development stall, or gets injured? Having Devers around gives you at least something to build off of. If you lose him, what the hell do you have here? Story? Yoshida (maybe)? Casas (maybe)? We haven’t had this kind of star uncertainty in quite a while.

Devers is key for me. Keep him and I can see the plan and dream. Lose him and I think you’ve unnecessarily introduced a ton of volatility to a franchise that, quite frankly, shouldn’t have this much.

If Devers leaves, how far to we have to go back to see a Red Sox team without a true star? Maybe early 90s, but they still had Clemens.

 

[Arroyoyo]

I voted for “The plan isn’t working” because when you’re this far into the off-season and your second biggest signing is Mass Mutual, the plan isn’t working.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

And what happens if Mayer sucks, has his development stall, or gets injured? Having Devers around gives you at least something to build off of. If you lose him, what the hell do you have here? Story? Yoshida (maybe)? Casas (maybe)? We haven’t had this kind of star uncertainty in quite a while.

Devers is key for me. Keep him and I can see the plan and dream. Lose him and I think you’ve unnecessarily introduced a ton of volatility to a franchise that, quite frankly, shouldn’t have this much.

I see no future where they keep Devers. He's going to command more than X because he's younger and better. He might get $400 million on the open market. Does anyone really think the Sox will make him a contract offer at that level? The club has shown an extreme aversion to such deals.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Devers is not in Boston for 2024. Signing him would be a stark change from everything they've done since hiring Bloom.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

If Devers leaves, how far to we have to go back to see a Red Sox team without a true star? Maybe early 90s, but they still had Clemens.

1997 would be closest, but even then they had Nomar, Mo, and Valentin.

 

[A Bad Man]

The Betts trade was a stroke of genius.

We traded one year of Mookie (27m) for half of David Price's remaining contract (3/96m total, or 3/48m), Verdugo, Downs, and Wong. 2020 contracts paid out at 37%; Betts earned 9.99m and was worth 2.8 fWAR. Price did not pitch in 2020; in '21 and '22 combined, Price was worth 0.8 fWAR total. The Sox went from paying 75.84m for 0.8 fWAR to 37.92m for 0.8 fWAR. Verdugo has earned 4.42m from '20 to '22; he has produced 6.1fWAR.

The Sox went from paying 85.83m for 3.6 fWAR (from '20-'22) to paying 42.35m for 6.9 fWAR, while also adding Downs and Wong.

 

[tims4wins]

1997 would be closest, but even then they had Nomar, Mo, and Valentin.

Mo won an MVP. He was a star. And Nomar was a very very very hyped prospect who would win ROY. I guess that could be Mayer in 2024. But if Devers is gone, there's no Mo to Mayer's Nomar.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I see no future where they keep Devers. He's going to command more than X because he's younger and better. He might get $400 million on the open market. Does anyone really think the Sox will make him a contract offer at that level? The club has shown an extreme aversion to such deals.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Devers is not in Boston for 2024. Signing him would be a stark change from everything they've done since hiring Bloom.

Agree that odds of him remaining beyond this year are remote so that only makes the angst go up even more. How are you replacing that when you won’t go market rate for other elite FAs? There is so little clarity here. One thing is for sure - this is a big year on the farm for Chaim. He can’t have more Jeter Downs situations with top guys.

 

[BringBackMo]

This thread has officially gone off the rails. Perhaps it started that way.

 

[Ale Xander]

This thread has officially gone off the rails. Perhaps it started that way.

BringBackRaffy

 

[Fishercat]

This may be a different topic but the more I see comments from folks, the more I wonder what the pathway would be that would garner "faith" that isn't spending 300 million dollars to buy your way out of the situation. This is not meant in anyway to be a "YOU DO IT BETTER" thing but I am struggling to find a good plan to rectify the situation.

You inherit the Red Sox after the 2019 season. You have an 84-78 team that probably got a bit unlucky Pyth Wise but maybe a bit lucky in it being the last year before a lot of wheels fall off. There is a promising and very strong offensive core in X, Devers, JDM, and Mookie with some potentially interesting secondary pieces for different reasons and some decent journeyman types but no real bench depth. The rotation on the other hand is pretty iffy - Sale and Price are beginning to show issues following their extensions/contracts, Porcello bottomed out, E-Rod is alright, Eovaldi didn't do anything in 2019 but obviously has stuff. Workman is your relief ace and everything behind him is not great. Your farm is pretty barren. The top prospect is Casas and he will still be a prospect three years from now. Your second prospect won't be 40 man worthy three years from now. Of the Top 10 the only one you will get any value out of in the next three years is Tanner Houck at the rate of about 60 innings a year. So you're taking an 84 win team with a ton of cash tied up in pitchers who won't pitch and a farm system whose top talent will bring you nothing and an offense with no depth beyond the current starting nine. What is the plan within what we assume are the restrictions of this ownership group - namely they will exceed the tax for reason but they're not gonna spend like the Mets.

This is a really, really tough puzzle to solve without blowing it up, spending a ton of extra cash, and/or a lot of patience and frankly none of those three things seem to be present in Boston. Would Betts even take 12/360 if Boston offered it pre-pandemic? Should Boston be engaging Devers in extension negotiations earlier before a down season as a cost controlled asset? What if they chose to work with Benny instead? Someone proposed not spending money on a ton of flotsam and jetsam and instead trying for three mid level FAs and a bunch of minor leaguers, which is one approach, but it's really not that easy to come up with.

Edit: Someone else mentioned it but the 2019 Sox, to me, felt a lot like the end of the Brady / beginning of Mac era Patriots we're seeing now. They expended a lot of resoruces to get those end of the era teams as good as they could get them and combined on whiffing on some drafts and signings to where a lot of the core couldn't hold up any more. They're suffering similar growing pains.

 

[scottyno]

No of course they could/would have someone in place of Mayer. That's not my point. My point is it feels like the system is currently Mayer plus a bunch of meh. Replace Mayer with another stud prospect and it's the same. Maybe my characterization of the rest of the system is off.

I don't care about both winning and having a top 3 system right now. If I thought they had a top 3 system, I'd be ok with where the major league team is right now. But it feels more like they have both a mediocre major league team, and a mediocre system. It's hard to see a path to contention in the next couple years.

That ranking doesn't include Bello because he threw 57 innings last year instead of 50 so he "graduated", that gives them 3 of the top 40 or so prospects in baseball, it isn't just one guy.