Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

The question of whether they could have given JD away for free is basically the most central to the whole buy/sell/hybrid debate.

It's 100% fine to say they should have sold, as long as one has realistic expectations of what that would look like in terms of return.

Yep - and I would have made him the entire lynchpin of how to determine the best way to sell. The reason I say "lynchpin" is MAYBE we could have gotten a couple of actual interesting prospects if we'd paid his whole salary, and if that was the case, I'd have advocated that. But obviously nobody knows this for sure.

I assume someone would have taken a shot on him for a bag of baseballs to take on his salary, which I think would have been worth it because I think you'd have gotten the same deal (at worst) for guys like Wacha, Hill and Strahm, injures or not.

Most realistically, I think we could have gotten something approaching "Clayton Beeter" in value for JD Martinez (that's what the Dodgers gave up for Gallo). Something along the lines of Mickey Moniak for Wacha (the Phillies gave up he and Jadiel Sahchez), and maybe something like Sawyer Gipson-Long for Strahm (what Detroit got for Fulmer), but more importantly we would get another $800k in draft slot money and two slightly better shots at decent players from the comp picks for Eovaldi and Bogaerts.

 

[chrisfont9]

Not resigning Xander for $280m is an A. Not an F.

It was a complex and evolving matter (remember a year ago when his defensive metrics were bad enough that the talk was mostly about moving off SS?), so yeah, for this piece to give out a grade based on nothing more than did they or did they not re-sign him... I mean, thanks for the help there Chad. I'd say most sportswriters and even the vast majority of posters here understand rule #1: don't bother writing up something people already know.

 

[JM3]

Yep - and I would have made him the entire lynchpin of how to determine the best way to sell. The reason I say "lynchpin" is MAYBE we could have gotten a couple of actual interesting prospects if we'd paid his whole salary, and if that was the case, I'd have advocated that. But obviously nobody knows this for sure.

I assume someone would have taken a shot on him for a bag of baseballs to take on his salary, which I think would have been worth it because I think you'd have gotten the same deal (at worst) for guys like Wacha, Hill and Strahm, injures or not.

Most realistically, I think we could have gotten something approaching "Clayton Beeter" in value for JD Martinez (that's what the Dodgers gave up for Gallo). Something along the lines of Mickey Moniak for Wacha (the Phillies gave up he and Jadiel Sahchez), and maybe something like Sawyer Gipson-Long for Strahm (what Detroit got for Fulmer), but more importantly we would get another $800k in draft slot money and two slightly better shots at decent players from the comp picks for Eovaldi and Bogaerts.

Gallo may suck a lot, but he's an above average defensive outfielder who was coming off a 100 wRC+ July (after sucking azz before then), & made less than half as much as JD last year ($3.6m to $8.1m for acquiring team). JD cannot play defense & was coming off a 62 wRC+ July.

Wacha didn't pitch between 6/28 & 8/14. Which would significantly limit any trade recovery. Strahm didn't pitch from 7/12 to 8/19 (& hadn't had as good of a season as Fullmer).

I think the Red Sox would have had to give up an asset to move JD's whole contract & without moving that whole contract they couldn't really get under, but who knows?

 

[jbupstate]

I am so over the 2022 trade deadline. They thought they had a path (via health) to a potential playoff spot. But they also wanted Xander to stay and emptying the team could have impacted their negotiations. As it happens, the Whale’s Vagina offer a better team outlook, tremendous weather and an additional $80m.

And efff FSG for asking Bloom to reign in salaries and take the the middle-term* option of trying to compete while letting dead money fall off, build the farm and keep the funky fanbase satisfied.

short-term = spend, spend, mortgage future, spend

long-term = sell, acquire, develop

middle-term = clear salary, incremental wins, take on risk, develop

 

[tims4wins]

Not going to lie, the Story development on top of him missing 70 games last year pushes this back down a notch for me.

 

[streeter88]

Not going to lie, the Story development on top of him missing 70 games last year pushes this back down a notch for me.

Agreed. Does the Red Sox medical staff report to the CBO? If so, at what point does a player's longevity / health come under the responsibility of a CBO? If that CBO trades for a player, reasonable assumption. But what if the player was in the organisation before the CBO - does the medical staff's performance (i.e., ability to help that player return to health in order to contribute meaningfully in a reasonable period of time) reflect at all on the CBO? And given the small sample size is it even possible to judge? I don't know and honestly trying to pose the question without judgment. Flipping the question on its head, are some teams better at keeping players healthy than others - and if so, why, and is it something that can be imitated?

 

[JM3]

Agreed. Does the Red Sox medical staff report to the CBO? If so, at what point does a player's longevity / health come under the responsibility of a CBO? If that CBO trades for a player, reasonable assumption. But what if the player was in the organisation before the CBO - does the medical staff's performance (i.e., ability to help that player return to health in order to contribute meaningfully in a reasonable period of time) reflect at all on the CBO? And given the small sample size is it even possible to judge? I don't know and honestly trying to pose the question without judgment. Flipping the question on its head, are some teams better at keeping players healthy than others - and if so, why, and is it something that can be imitated?

The Red Sox didn't seem to have an outlier amount of injuries last year. According to this article from September the Sox were t9 in players injured & t7 in games missed.

https://nesn.com/2022/09/data-shows-red-sox-have-been-most-impacted-by-injuries-in-mlb/

But where they "excel" is how f expensive their injured players were (at that point they led the league with $60m in salary missed for injury - $12m more than the next team).

I don't think there's much that can be done medically about the wrong players getting injured.

 

[jbupstate]

The Red Sox didn't seem to have an outlier amount of injuries last year. According to this article from September the Sox were t9 in players injured & t7 in games missed.

https://nesn.com/2022/09/data-shows-red-sox-have-been-most-impacted-by-injuries-in-mlb/

But where they "excel" is how f expensive their injured players were (at that point they led the league with $60m in salary missed for injury - $12m more than the next team).

I don't think there's much that can be done medically about the wrong players getting injured.

And how all the pitching injuries were clustered.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Following are some quotes from Chaim as laid out in Steve Buckley's piece in The Athletic (link below):

“Really, to our fans, loving your favorite team, it’s great moments (but) it’s not always easy,” he said. “And I know we’ve had some ups and downs certainly in the last few years, and I know you’re all smart and knew there would be some ups and downs from where we stood with some of the things we were going to have to go through.

“You’ve been with us the whole way,” he said. “When we’ve celebrated, you’ve celebrated with us. When we’ve hurt, you’ve hurt. And we know that, and we feel it. So I’m hoping today, when you think about what we always talked about and where we’re going and this vision of a Red Sox organization that every year is consistently contending for championships, I’m hoping that vision’s a little clearer for you today, knowing that (Devers) is going to be right in the middle of it.”

“You know, it’s not always linear,” Bloom said. “It’s not always easy. We’ve taken a couple of haymakers. You know what? We’re probably gonna take a couple more. This is baseball. It’s not supposed to be easy. But I want to be clear. We’re going to do this. It’s going to be awesome. We are going to get there, and I just wanted to thank all of you for your support and hope it’s a little clearer today.”

In response to the bolded, Buckley writes: "Well, it’s absolutely not a little clearer today. With Story out of commission, the Red Sox do not have a shortstop — unless they want to use Kiké Hernández, who has limited experience at the position. And if they move Hernandez out of center field, who’d replace him? Surely the Sox wouldn’t rely on Jarren Duran, who in every possible way last season made clear that nothing should be handed to him when spring training starts next month. And let’s be brutally honest: In any discussion about rehabbing lefty Chris Sale, nothing, nothing, is a little clearer today.

https://theathletic.com/4082716/2023/01/11/boston-red-sox-chaim-bloom-column-buckley/

 

[chrisfont9]

Following are some quotes from Chaim as laid out in Steve Buckley's piece in The Athletic (link below):

“Really, to our fans, loving your favorite team, it’s great moments (but) it’s not always easy,” he said. “And I know we’ve had some ups and downs certainly in the last few years, and I know you’re all smart and knew there would be some ups and downs from where we stood with some of the things we were going to have to go through.

“You’ve been with us the whole way,” he said. “When we’ve celebrated, you’ve celebrated with us. When we’ve hurt, you’ve hurt. And we know that, and we feel it. So I’m hoping today, when you think about what we always talked about and where we’re going and this vision of a Red Sox organization that every year is consistently contending for championships, I’m hoping that vision’s a little clearer for you today, knowing that (Devers) is going to be right in the middle of it.”

“You know, it’s not always linear,” Bloom said. “It’s not always easy. We’ve taken a couple of haymakers. You know what? We’re probably gonna take a couple more. This is baseball. It’s not supposed to be easy. But I want to be clear. We’re going to do this. It’s going to be awesome. We are going to get there, and I just wanted to thank all of you for your support and hope it’s a little clearer today.”

In response to the bolded, Buckley writes: "Well, it’s absolutely not a little clearer today. With Story out of commission, the Red Sox do not have a shortstop — unless they want to use Kiké Hernández, who has limited experience at the position. And if they move Hernandez out of center field, who’d replace him? Surely the Sox wouldn’t rely on Jarren Duran, who in every possible way last season made clear that nothing should be handed to him when spring training starts next month. And let’s be brutally honest: In any discussion about rehabbing lefty Chris Sale, nothing, nothing, is a little clearer today.

https://theathletic.com/4082716/2023/01/11/boston-red-sox-chaim-bloom-column-buckley/

Awesome. Bloom stops just short of saying that they are deploying a long term plan, and Buckley's response is to grouse about how they aren't going to win the World Series this year. The main reason Bloom doesn't announce their plans is obvious, but I'm sure a part of him is also thinking, why even bother?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Just saying you have a plan isn’t always enough to convince everyone, though. Some people are looking for evidence. Wondering what the team is going to do at SS seems like a fair question, especially since the answers given so far by management have kind of been all over the place. It’s good to be flexible and discuss all kinds of options but eventually you do have to make decisions or you end up with JBJ playing everyday in RF despite everyone’s claims that it would never happen.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

To be fair, the vision was always clear, the difference is that now there is actual evidence to believe in Bloom as the guy running the plan. Doesn't mean he's always going to get it right (and where I admit I get frustrated is when people refuse to admit any shortcomings of Bloom), and I for one don't expect him to. I've never seen an executive as good as Epstein, and HE got a heck of a lot of stuff wrong too, Bloom isn't above reproach. But extending Devers was a HUGE move in the direction of giving a longer leash.

To me that was literally the entire lynchpin of what Bloom is apparently trying to do. It's become clear that baseball ops has decided the window for serious commitment to contention opens in 2025 (I'm not saying "compete", I'm saying "contend" and there is a difference). Singing Devers gives validity to that - as in they locked in a guy for his prime years during the lets call it 2025-2030 window, which is when this wave of prospects should be coming up and relatively inexpensive (hopefully with some Astros and Braves style extensions in there). Those will be his age 28-32 seasons, or the prime for a typical player.

In my mind there was always a question of if Bloom would commit that high of a percentage of his budget to elite talent (Story came at a discount, we had to pay to get Devers) and at a certain level. I think that was a VERY fair question to ask. Now that's been answered that he will do it. Not that he's going to do that for every free agent, but its also at least proof that he won't NOT do it, so to speak (I believe the number works out to Devers being around 12.5% of the budget based on AAV and $luxury tax threshold). Up until he signed the extension, I firmly believed that Bloom wouldn't commit that high of a percentage to one player and he at least showed he would.

Now, Devers in and of himself isn't enough to contend, obviously (Mike Trout and Shoehi Ohtani aren't enough either), but you can at least look at that and say it's reasonable to assume if the ages work out, we'd pay a significant portion of the budget to elite talent, even at market rates, because that is just what we did. It was also fair to question if Bloom would do it (because he hadn't).

To be fair though, I really don't think the Red Sox do themselves any favors with their "deep into October" quotes or talking about using free agency to build a team to play "deep into October", or calling Bogaerts their "top priority" and missing the market not in terms of what San Diego offered, but being significantly behind other teams as well. I understand the "pandering" aspect, but for people whom follow the game closely (I assume all of SoSH) I think it's fair to look at what we did this off-season BEFORE Devers and say "you think THESE guys get you deep into October?" "You think THIS is the market for top FA talent?" Are you really this delusional?

They'd have been better served to have literally said nothing. The Red Sox are going to get crushed by the media here anyway. Again, Shank goes on and on about how winning the 2004 title "ruined" the Red Sox, which is just mind numbingly stupid, but it just illustrates the point of they're going to get crushed no matter what. If he said "nice things" the narrative would be "well John Henry owns the Globe, so he has to say those." Negativity generates clicks, and journalism is a business, they're always going to find an angle to be negative. Doesn't mean you have to make it easy.

Now, if Bloom goes out and starts dealing all kinds of assets for guys whom are here for one year or two years, or players in the minors don't show improvement, we can go back to having a serious discussion about if he's the right guy to execute the plan. If the middle of July rolls around, we're in last place in the division and out of the playoff bracket and we DON'T do everything in our power to jettison players whom aren't part of the 2025 plus window, I'll absolutely question that again.

But as it stands today while the plan is the same, and is as clear as it was, the difference is the Devers extension shows a commitment to actually paying for the players whom are really good (probably one or two of the prospects will be). They should have just said nothing at all (and if not that, by being more transparent about where the organization was).



*Oh, and just to go on the record of something, I'd bet on this deal for Devers MUCH more than Mookie. If given the choice of one massive contract, I'm glad it was Devers over Betts. I'm really happy with paying Devers an AAV of $29m the next 11 years. If given the opportunity to take on Mookie right now at a 10yr / $25m AAV hit, which I believe goes through his age 39 season, I wouldn't want to do it.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

It's become clear that baseball ops has decided the window for serious commitment to contention opens in 2025

Interesting that this date seems to keep moving further and further into the future...

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Interesting that this date seems to keep moving further and further into the future...

Well, to be fair I'm not someone whom has liked the bulk of the moves Bloom has made (or, I guess a better way to say it is that I think different choices would have yielded better results) starting with the beginning of the 2021-22 off-season. I'm sure there are plenty of really smart people on here whom think that the 2023 team (and 2024) are going to be pretty good. I don't particularly think that, though.

But, with the Devers extension I now at least believe there is a path to a window of contention with Bloom in charge - I didn't believe that before. But it's why I say 2025. I think there is a MUCH higher degree of likelihood of the farm churning out talent than I do that all the "error bar" choices we've made for 2023 and 2024 pan out.

 

[soxhop411]

fans at the winter weekend have heavily booed Bloom and henry so far....
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1616586972381777920

A very restless crowd won't let Chaim Bloom finish a sentence. Boos, "Fake Dombrowski," and "XANDER BOGAERTS" yells have rung out.

 

[simplicio]

Stay classy, Boston.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Stay classy, Boston.

Sounds like a good chunk of this board

 

[BigSoxFan]

fans at the winter weekend have heavily booed Bloom and henry so far....
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1616586972381777920

“Fake Dombrowski” doesn’t even make sense.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Stay classy, Boston.

Isn’t it in Springfield?

 

[simplicio]

“Fake Dombrowski” doesn’t even make sense.

Idiots gonna idiot.

 

[jon abbey]

“Fake Dombrowski” doesn’t even make sense.

"Fake Friedman" would have been hysterical, though, missed chance.

 

[simplicio]

Isn’t it in Springfield?

Checks out.

 

[VORP Speed]

"Fake Friedman" would have been hysterical, though, missed chance.

“Fredo” is the play

 

[Jim Ed Rice in HOF]

Isn’t it in Springfield?

Boston, Berkshires. Whatever.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

What's Henry doing there? Can only be bad things... but I guess he was required to show or some such?

Could break this out into a "Winter Weekend Wreck" thread or some such.

View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1616593444411146241

 

[soxhop411]

John Henry is forced by boos to pause in his answer about Red Sox ticket prices. They say high ticket prices are necessary to carry high payrolls.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1616593032157057024


the fans or "fans" have literally booed every FO person that has gone on stage

View: https://twitter.com/Kupsey17/status/1616591200374640640

Chaim Bloom booed loudly when introduced at Winter Weekend. It went downhill from there.

 

[JCizzle]

Chaim better really hope the team gets more than 84 wins this year starting his opener like that…

 

[BornToRun]

People are stupid. Xander isn’t going to be worth what he’s getting paid and we have Mayer in the pipeline with Raffy locked up for the next decade. Hell, we just played in the ALCS in 2021.

Edit: just watched the Bloom segment and it didn’t seem as bad as the tweets implied. I got the impression that it was more a few loud idiots than a complete showing. I actually found what he had to say to be quite interesting.

 

[JCizzle]

People are stupid. Xander isn’t going to be worth what he’s getting paid and we have Mayer in the pipeline with Raffy locked up for the next decade. Hell, we just played in the ALCS in 2021.

Nobody (save Padres fans?) is saying Xander is worth his current contract. People are saying he’s worth the money that the organization allegedly didn’t offer last year in the ~Story range.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Boston, Berkshires. Whatever.

As a western mass native, I’m just saying…I don’t think Springfield has ever been classy.

 

[mikeford]

What's Henry doing there? Can only be bad things... but I guess he was required to show or some such?

Could break this out into a "Winter Weekend Wreck" thread or some such.

View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1616593444411146241

View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1616592812065148931


This deserves to be booed. Sorry if people don't like it!

 

[JCizzle]

View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1616592812065148931


This deserves to be booed. Sorry if people don't like it!

You must have missed the Yankees trading their generational talent this offseason to save money. Or the Dodgers taking ours because they could afford him. The optics of saying something like that after the last couple of years is not great.

 

[snowmanny]

I don’t really get this. I’ve moved from 40% to maybe 55% on the “do they have a plan” question. I think ultimately the off-season has gone more or less as expected. And they are still spending money.

I wonder how much of this is still about Betts.

edit - as JCizzle says, I think a lot of it is still about Betts.

 

[bosox1534]

Honestly embarrassing to see this behavior as a fan myself. This organization has given us so much enjoyment over the years and given us 4 championships in 20 years and this is how they react because of one rough offseason. Fickle.

 

[BornToRun]

What Henry said was stupid and he should’ve kept that to himself but this organization clearly isn’t cheap. They’ve thrown money around since taking over and some of it has worked out while some of it hasn‘t. The fact of the matter is the track record since this group took over speaks for itself.

 

[JCizzle]

I don’t really get this. I’ve moved from 40% to maybe 55% on the “do they have a plan” question. I think ultimately the off-season has gone more or less as expected. And they are still spending money.

I wonder how much of this is still about Betts.

edit - as JCizzle says, I think a lot of it is still about Betts.

From a dumb fan perspective, I think it's easier to point to - hey, we resigned these 3-4 guys that everyone here in the audience has known for years for a ton of money and need high ticket prices vs. signing one of them and an unknown player in Yoshida plus a bunch of old guys on short term deals and hey we still need that money from you. Both approaches are valid, but you better hope the latter works out and the kids graduate quickly if you have the highest priced experience in the league.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

He could have just said “we thank you for your unwavering support which is essential as we invest in our team”. The only reason to ever mention ticket prices is if you are lowering them.

 

[soxhop411]

He could have just said “we thank you for your unwavering support which is essential as we invest in our team”. The only reason to ever mention ticket prices is if you are lowering them.

He was asked about the ticket prices

 

[Blizzard of 1978]

People are stupid. Xander isn’t going to be worth what he’s getting paid and we have Mayer in the pipeline with Raffy locked up for the next decade. Hell, we just played in the ALCS in 2021.

Edit: just watched the Bloom segment and it didn’t seem as bad as the tweets implied. I got the impression that it was more a few loud idiots than a complete showing. I actually found what he had to say to be quite interesting.

Agreed. I have new respect for Bloom after this. Xanders Bogaerts contract is a terrible God Father contract and the Padres will regret it if Machado or Soto leave. Looking at the Red Sox in 2023 I am much more optimistic than 2022. Definitely, 2024 and 2025 they will be very competitive. What's the old saying? Sometimes it's better to take 1 step back to move 2 steps forward.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

He was asked about the ticket prices

I can't think of anything that would have been a non-objectionable answer.

 

[RG33]

Chaim landed the plane farily nicely at the end of his soliliquy there. He went through the eye of the storm, had a ton of turbulence, and spilt a lot of drinks beforehand, but he landed it well.

 

[BornToRun]

Agreed. I have new respect for Bloom after this. Xanders Bogaerts contract is a terrible God Father contract and the Padres will regret it if Machado or Soto leave. Looking at the Red Sox in 2023 I am much more optimistic than 2022. Definitely, 2024 and 2025 they will be very competitive. What's the old saying? Sometimes it's better to take 1 step back to move 2 steps forward.

Yep. Actually put the Mookie situation in a new light for me. It’s incredibly silly, but I really do hope he knows that not everyone in the fanbase is a stupid asshole like the ones in that crowd.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

He was asked about the ticket prices

Ok, then you talk about how many affordable tickets there are, how many tickets they donate, how a family can afford a game, comparisons to other entertainment options, etc.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Again, I don't think any reasonable fan is upset at not getting X for 11/280. We're wondering why they didn't offer 6/140, 6/170 until it was too late.

I think the dirty secret is they don't think he will be even worth 25M AAV very soon, and they can't say that, and that's fine, but it certainly makes PR difficult.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I can't think of anything that would have been a non-objectionable answer.

Ok, then you talk about how many affordable tickets there are, how many tickets they donate, how a family can afford a game, comparisons to other entertainment options, etc.

Maybe he could note that there are teams in the largest markets that charge much higher prices for their most expensive seats, and also teams that play in significantly larger ballparks. So they have to balance things. They DO try to offer affordable options and games, but they’re also trying to compete at the highest level, with a high payroll, in one of the most beloved but smallest parks…. Etc.

 

[soxhop411]

Ok, then you talk about how many affordable tickets there are, how many tickets they donate, how a family can afford a game, comparisons to other entertainment options, etc.

You think fans would find that answer acceptable?
They (those in attendance)would not have found any answer “acceptable” in my opinion. Its a question with no good answer.

Ticket prices have gone up in every sport in the US.

 

[JCizzle]

You think fans would find that answer acceptable?
They (those in attendance)would not have found any answer “acceptable” in my opinion. Its a question with no good answer.

Ticket prices have gone up in every sport in the US.

They're asking why the Red Sox still have the highest. Prices can still be high without being the highest.

 

[YTF]

Sounds like a good chunk of this board

It has been a bit slow here today.

 

[scottyno]

They're asking why the Red Sox still have the highest. Prices can still be high without being the highest.

Probably because Fenway holds something like 2/3rds of what Yankee or Dodger Stadiums hold. He should have said they could spend hundreds of millions or more on a newer larger ballpark to eventually bring prices down, I'm sure that would have gone over well.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Again, I don't think any reasonable fan is upset at not getting X for 11/280. We're wondering why they didn't offer 6/140, 6/170 until it was too late.

I think the dirty secret is they don't think he will be even worth 25M AAV very soon, and they can't say that, and that's fine, but it certainly makes PR difficult.

Yeah. Did they ever get to even $170m? Their mistake, if they really wanted to keep him, was not going long on years and low on AAV, after signing Story and before he got to FA. 7/$170 or 8/$180, Red Sox for life type of deal. Heck, 9/$200 if they had had a better sense of where this off-season was heading. He still might not have taken it, but it gives him something to consider at least. And if those offers leak, more fans would have felt differently/better about it. The offer of tacking on one extra year for $30M struck everyone as weak. And dumb, if they really wanted to keep him.

But the way this all played out, I have my doubts about whether they really wanted to keep him at even 80% of fair market value. And if that was the case, then their public messaging was... crappy.