- Dec 14, 2019
The picks are sandwich picks, though, so makes sense to average over the range. The 2nd round comp pick would be an average of the 51% for 2nd round & 39% for 3rd round, & the 4th round comp pick would be the average of the 35% for the 4th round & 30% for the 5th round (guessing at those #s based on the bar graph), so we're really closer to 45% to 32.5% (12.5% difference) rather than 51% to 35% (16% difference).I agree.
But (I posted this in another thread, but it appears applicable to this discussion too), there is about a 51% chance that a 2nd round pick makes the majors as opposed to around 35% from the 4th round (assuming Baseball America to be a credible source). I think that percentage is significant enough when talking about two picks in round 2 vs two in round 4 AND the $1m allocation and a 67% chance of missing the playoffs SHOULD have outweighed not having those for a 33% chance at making them.
Especially if you could have gotten literally anything for Martinez, Hill, Wacha and even Strahm at the deadline. I don't know if they could have, but Speier at least seemed to think so.
Again, there were justifiable reasons for choosing the path Bloom did. There were also justifiable reasons to have said "we really should have sold more."
BBA Study https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/