You realize that a sports franchise and the stock market are two wildly different things, right?
Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office
- Thread starter Pozo the Clown
- Start date
I was watching a YouTube video about the 1969 Montreal Expos the other day. They had one really good player in Rusty Staub, a couple of kind of good players in Bob Bailey and Mack Jones, and then a bunch of castoffs, has beens or unproven youngsters. I have a sinking feeling that the 2023 Red Sox will have more in common with the "69 Expos than any playoff that can be named.
Yes. But long game usually beats short game. TORTOISE beats Hare. Example if someone bought a ETF years back they be sitting pretty. My correlation is people who are Red Sox fans want it in 2023, but most likely 2024 and up. All these Yankees, Mets,Padres and Phillies fans beating thier chest on how much money they spent won't be doing it in 2024 because they can't, but Bloom could. That Xander contract will cost the Padres Machado and Soto.
10th out of 12 in runs; 12th out of 12 in pitching. You have a valid argument for an equivalent offense, but there are much worse pitching staffs than the projected one for the 2023 Red Sox.
I don't know if this has made the rounds, but if the Red Sox re-signed their players to current deals:
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/what-if-the-red-sox-kept-their-2018-team-together/
2023 Projected Lineup
The final total payroll cost of this entire roster comes to about $270 million, but with the recent news of $50 million of Chris Sale’s contract being deferred to 2035-2039, I am going to knock off $10 million from the final number to bring the total luxury tax payroll to $260 million. To field one of the best teams in baseball and keep all of their stars, the Red Sox would still be spending less than the New York Yankees.
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/what-if-the-red-sox-kept-their-2018-team-together/
2023 Projected Lineup
- Mookie Betts – RF – 5.9 WAR
- Rafael Devers – 3B – 4.8 WAR
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – 4.5 WAR
- JD Martinez – DH – 0.8 WAR
- Triston Casas – 1B – 1.9 WAR
- Trevor Story – 2B – 2.9 WAR
- Andrew Benintendi – LF – 2.3 WAR
- Christian Vazquez – C – 1.8 WAR
- Kiké Hernandez – CF – 1.8 WAR
The final total payroll cost of this entire roster comes to about $270 million, but with the recent news of $50 million of Chris Sale’s contract being deferred to 2035-2039, I am going to knock off $10 million from the final number to bring the total luxury tax payroll to $260 million. To field one of the best teams in baseball and keep all of their stars, the Red Sox would still be spending less than the New York Yankees.
So in this goofy fantasy land, the Sox only re-signed the "good" members of the '18 squad (so no JBJ) while filling open slots with their free agent and draft "wins"? That's convenient.
Better than in the goofy real world where they paid JBJ $18M last year to put up -0.4 bWAR. You could replace Kike with JBJ though; and it would lower the payroll since nobody has signed Jackie yet.
The "bad" member you reference was the only one this FO went out of their way to bring back onto the team!
It did net us the Brewers 16th and 17th best prospects, who are now our 31st and 36th best prospects according to Sox Prospects. Not great.
Last edited:
Okay. But guess what, while the Sox stock is “rising” (and there’s no guarantee of that, at all— the prospect industrial complex isn’t an exact science at all) what are customers supposed to do? We’re paying the highest prices in MLB for tickets and concessions, not to mention NESN. And what are we getting for these “rebuilding years”?
A promise that they might be better in 2025? 26? What are we getting for our investment? Because if I put money in the stock market, and I do well, I (as in ME ) am going to make money.
What do I get if John Henry gets to save money on payroll for a few years? The promise of a good team? What’s the difference to me, if Henry spends $600M now or saves cash for a promise to be better later? The difference is that I don’t have to watch a shit team for two seasons (if I’m lucky).
And I’m a die hard Red Sox fan, what about the ones who aren’t invested? How much money are the Sox going to lose?
Again, this is an entertainment business, this isn’t a 401k. If you view it as such, you’re making a huge mistake.
Looks potent for 2023.
I'm less sanguine about 2033 though. . .which is the problem that sort of article completely ignores, even though it posits signing Betts, Devers and Xander to 10 year or greater contracts.
Or to frame it another way, What if the el-cheapo-Sox had just kept their 2013 team together?
You know, locking in their three biggest under-30 performers from the champion 2013 team through the 2023 season. . .for the upcoming year we'd have second base taken care of by Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury penciled in at center, and Saltalamacchia as our starring catcher. I'm not sure about Napoli (31) and Nava though (30) - maybe only a 8 year contracts?
(Speaking of which, that takes me back. Who was that dude who belly-ached over the cheapness of the front office and unremittingly shit-posted for years -literally years- that we'd never ever win again without our star center-fielder?)
Last edited:
It’s things like this that make me have so little faith in Bloom being the guy to oversee this long term plan of building from the farm, a la Atlanta or Houston.
The JBJ trade wasn’t an isolated event.
Taking Yorke in 2020 was widely seen as a massive reach. Like the entire organization he had an awesome 2021 and a terrible 2022. But, Bloom took him over Pete Crow Armstrong, Jordan Walker, Cade Cavalli, Bobby Miller and Jordan Westburg (just to name guys taken in the 10 or so picks immediately after Yorke).
He also took Jud Fabian (and didn’t sign him) in the 2nd round in 2021 while leaving Andrew Abbott, Zack Gelof, James Wood, Kyle Manzardo and Robert Gasser (all from later in the 2nd or early in the 3rd).
Neither of these were exactly every team passing on Mike Piazza 61 times, these were guys close to the players we picked.
Add these with taking on all that Bradley money to “buy” Hamilton and Binelas, the misevaluation of Downs, saying “no thanks” to a bullpen piece that has accumulated more fWAR the past three years than the bullpen piece you gave $9.5m per year too (Graterol has had a 1.5 fWAR the last 3 vs 1.3 fWAR for Barnes), selling Benintendi at the nadir of his value based on a bad two weeks in a pandemic and doing so for nothing of value, and it gets very worriesome.
Especially for someone on whom the entire confidence rests on “building a player development machine”, and you see a consistent pattern of misses. The plan might be “sound”, but it’d be nice to see more wins from the guy responsible for executing the plan to truly have confidence in it.
To be honest, I don't see Chaim lasting much longer. I was ecstatic at first when he joined the front office, but he has been a pretty big disappointment.
What makes you think Yorke is a clear miss? The narrative after his first year was extremely positive. There was an injury in the second year. What makes you confident the guys you cherry picked after Yorke are not going to have steps back?
Development isn’t alway a straight line up. The MLB draft is a crapshoot after the first 10 picks. Judging Bloom quickly on the draft the last few years (including Covid) seems a little jumpy to me. The farm had a top 10 ranking at midseason. It became much better in spite of Bloom? Some things take time.
The Yorke pick wasn't only about Yorke. It was also about having no second round pick that year, and about saving money in the first round so they could get Blaze Jordan in the third round. In evaluating that draft, we have to look at Yorke and Jordan as a package, and it's way too early to decide the strategy was a bust.
I‘m not saying Yorke is a “clear miss”, but he looks a lot more like a miss than players taken right around him.
Though the larger point being I think the perception of Bloom’s ability to contend for titles via rebuilding a player development machine would look a lot different (and I think most of us would say “better) if even half of the “misses” (I think we’d agree on Downs, Hamilton, Cordero, Winckowski and failure to sign Fabian being misses) or replacing Yorke with players taken just after him that are less variable.
We can only make judgements with the data we have now, right? Or just not discuss the Red Sox for three years while we see what the farm looks like heading into the 2026 season. I think discussing it now is a more fun choice, and if we’re going to “credit” Bloom with Mayer and Bleis (since they look like hits right now and I DO credit him for these), it’s only consistent and fair to talk about those whom are (or look like misses right now, as well).
Like most teams, all GMs will “win 50 and lose 50”, we‘ll see how Bloom does with the “other 62”, I suppose.
Last edited:
It's even sillier when you look at the bullpen. It's all the guys from this year and not Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.
I have a hard time taking the work of someone who arbitrarily decides to deduct $10m from the tax bill for deferred salary rather than...using AAV.
Maybe I'll double check it later, but I did a similar analysis the other day that showed a ton of $ being tied up on not nearly enough WAR in order to maintain the core.
They would also be on 3x+ repeater tax levels & still not have won anything last year.
Yorke is quite far from being a miss. He just put up a .950 OPS in the Arizona Fall League. He needs a healthy year.
Of the other players you listed, I’d say only Downs is a clear miss. Cordero showed some flashes — and he put up a 122 wRC+ as our first baseman last year — but the swing-and-miss factor roared back and proved too much. The Sox brass love exit velocity, per Speier on the Keith Law podcast, so it made sense to take a flyer, but without any options left it was time to abandon the Cordero project.
But Hamilton and Winckowski are still worthwhile projects. Hamilton is lightning fast and hit .353/.453/.546 in his last 131 PAs last year. Winckowski was pressed into major-league duty early due to necessity and probably needs another pitch to make it as a starter, but making the leap last year was a big step and he could still be a useful guy.
The Red Sox’ lack of a second-round pick may have inhibited drafting a few of those players, particularly PCA, Garrett Mitchell, and Tyler Soderstrom. However, none of the others— including Cade Cavalli and Jordan Walker— signed for significantly more than Yorke. Bobby Miller signed for a half-million dollars less than Nick Yorke.
Considering just first-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-round picks, the Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, and Dodgers drafted below but better than the Red Sox. The Yankees, with only three picks and drafting lower than all but the Dodgers, chose Austin Wells and key components of both the Benintendi and Gallo deals. The Giants and Phillies, both drafting in the mid-teens with the Red Sox, picked players mentioned on this very board as centerpieces for a Rafael Devers deal. Nick Yorke might be the centerpiece for Christmas dinner at Bo' Ling Chop Suey Palace.
With just two minor-league seasons having elapsed, it remains too soon to close the book on the 2020 draft. But the no-longer-that-early returns have been underwhelming, even after five weeks in the happiest hitting environment this side of the moon.
FSG are the initials for "Fenway Sports Group", which is a holding company LLC which owns and operates a number of professional sports teams including the Boston Red Sox. As owners, the direction of the team, including hiring of management is at their discretion. As a legal entity rather an individual person, there is no "he".
As for the intimate thoughts of the leadership of that group, I am relying on some reasoning based on the things I am seeing to formulate an opinion.
You don't say? I was rather hoping someone was whispering something insightful into your ear. (But I suppose a crowd so whispering would be confusing.)
But no matter. These "things you are seeing" - are they corporate memos that say: "In the years we won, we prioritized winning, but now our objective has changed?" And for that matter, what have the intimate thoughts of the leadership group changed to?
It’s crazy to stamp outcomes on guys drafted since 2020. I’m not making excuses for Bloom. How many GMs are drafting high school players that make AA or higher within two years? The MLB draft is crazy hard.
View: https://twitter.com/iancundall/status/1607887568758083584?s=46&t=XaESy3hFG-rP4n1zKJpKUw
This is where I feel the front office doesn’t seem to have a plan or the foresight to execute their plan efficiently. I guess you could say they most likely assumed they weren’t losing Xander. But they made no real “known” attempts at Eovaldi. If you knew you had two potential draft picks coming your way and weren’t going to make any moves to improve the team at the deadline in season, why not at least move JDM (and other moves) and get under the threshold?
This is where I feel the front office doesn’t seem to have a plan or the foresight to execute their plan efficiently. I guess you could say they most likely assumed they weren’t losing Xander. But they made no real “known” attempts at Eovaldi. If you knew you had two potential draft picks coming your way and weren’t going to make any moves to improve the team at the deadline in season, why not at least move JDM (and other moves) and get under the threshold?
Moving JDM and others at the deadline requires two parties to get it done. If there were no takers for him/them, or the only takers wanted the Sox to cover some/all of his remaining salary, how does Bloom get under the CBT threshold?
And the Sox absolutely made one known attempt/offer to Eovaldi: the qualifying offer.
There were reports of teams interested in JDM but Bloom’s ask was too high. And no I don’t want him to give a player away but if you can get something in return and get under the threshold to set up the offseason better, then yes. Also, everyone knew Eovaldi was turning down the QO, which is why you should have improved your draft spot at the deadline.
And adding McGuire, Pham, and Hosmer was improving the team? I want Bloom to succeed. I like Yoshida, I’m all about the kids and prospects, I spend most of my time here in the minor league forum, but if that’s the plan then go for it.
And adding McGuire, Pham, and Hosmer was improving the team? I want Bloom to succeed. I like Yoshida, I’m all about the kids and prospects, I spend most of my time here in the minor league forum, but if that’s the plan then go for it.
Our 2022 postseason odds were 1 in 3 and Bloom decided to go for it. I admire that, and I don’t think it’s evidence of incompetence. It’s a tough decision to be in, but I’d prefer an exec that wants to go for it. It’s the outcome that people should find unsatisfactory. Every scenario he could have chosen would have led to outraged second guessing.
*The Vázquez trade doesn’t disprove this, because acquiring McGuire represents an upgrade.
*The Vázquez trade doesn’t disprove this, because acquiring McGuire represents an upgrade.
Bloom didn’t decide to go for it, he just didn’t really do anything. I guess choosing not to decide is still making a choice, or something. It’s kind of what he’s doing this off-season.
For a reminder of what happened:
https://www.mlb.com/news/evaluating-red-sox-after-the-trade-deadline
-Vazquez
+ Prospects that didn't play in 2022.
-Diekman
+McGuire
+Pham
+Hosmer
The latter two only being "big" additions because the FO neglected the OF and 1B until August. Overall it was ok, kinda, I guess, but it certainly did a lot of straddling without picking a side.
Sure, yes. I mean going for it within reason, not mortgaging the future, etc etc. Not selling.
There’s literally outrage no matter what option he chooses. There would have been a ton of “Bloom quit on the team” headlines had he sold traded JDM and Eovaldi, especially after the team had just climbed back pretty well the year before to make it to the ALCS.
Just look how much damage-control bullshit he had to deal with when he cut our .217-hitting catcher — the easiest catcher to run on in baseball — to give more playing time to catchers of the future. I think he made a sensible choice and it didn’t work out, end of story.
This is every fan base now, every fan is a terrible amateur GM who is super quick to mock the people making real decisions. I fully get being frustrated with Bloom/Henry right now, but NY won 99 games, won the division, made the ALCS, re-signed Rizzo and Judge, added Rodon and Kahnle, and still Yankee fans are saying they didn't improve the offense that was swept by HOU (not really true either) so what's the point? Honestly it makes following sports a little bit worse.
It was every fan base back in the day also.
So -and I'm going out on a limb here- perhaps we can do something different than the mouthbreathing WEEI crowd.
Perhaps a standard could be something like, "Don't Suck."
Radical I know,. . .but it just might work.
I agree that the team has done a little too much straddling between trying to contend and playing the kids. It seems like Pham was window dressing for contention, and Hosmer more or less fell into our laps when we had the defensive adventure twins manning first. I think the larger narrative is about the kids. With two starters signing elsewhere and no word on Wacha, there are plenty of spots for the kid pitchers, and enough talent around them to avoid a sub 75 win season. Perhaps they will even surprise. By the time the kids bloom (assuming they do) we can add some bigger names and perhaps sustain excellence.
I would have been happy had he GONE for it, one way or the other. Same at the deadline in 2021. Same in the off seasons of 2021 and 2022. Jeesh, he is an equivocator and a hedger. Eventually, the proof is gonna be in the pudding, yes?
I'm sure there were teams interested on taking a chance, but if the interest from the teams was "we'll give you a lotto ticket prospect and you have to pick up some or most of his salary" then that doesn't really help the Sox. We have no idea what his ask was or what teams offered.
It did seem at the time from reports that Bloom overplayed his hand here. The Red Sox front office may not leak much but the Mets front office seems to leak everything:
https://bosoxinjection.com/2022/08/01/red-sox-rumors-price-jd-martinez-might-scare-mets-mark-vientos/
Kind of hard to get a better pick for Xander going to SD when you've already traded him away at the deadline to get under the tax.
It's going to be interesting in five years to see the material difference of having picks 133 and 134 instead of 70 and 71. Surely there'll be a good major leaguer or two in that 60-pick window, but the odds that we'd be the ones to have lucked into him seem quite small.
Maybe we can look at the Vazquez return (Valdez and Abreu) as a tradeoff there. Those prospects (currently the 17th and 26th in our system) are currently more valuable than the typical #70 and #71 draft picks.
Maybe we can look at the Vazquez return (Valdez and Abreu) as a tradeoff there. Those prospects (currently the 17th and 26th in our system) are currently more valuable than the typical #70 and #71 draft picks.
I have a hard time setting high expectations for the Red Sox this upcoming season. Anything can happen, but I feel like to get a playoff spot they need a lot of breaks. They need some of their holes in the lineup to really figure things out (Story stays healthy and makes more contact, Kike is closer to 2021 Kike and not Kike 2022, Verdugo is more consistent, Dalbec/Franchy provides more value at 1B, Reese hits, Yoshida is great) and they need a number of their young pitchers to really step up and find their stride and remain healthy. The bullpen feels like the only thing that was decisively improved from last year's last-place finish.
Baltimore could very well regress and keep Boston out of the basement, but what worries me is not only to the Red Sox have probably the second weakest roster in their division, but also the least amount of young talent that you can expect to make leaps. Baltimore has a lot of guys like that because they've been stockpiling young players for years, Tampa and the Yankees all have strong young major league talent as well as interesting prospects on the come-up. The Blue Jays have a weaker farm system but far more young players that have shined at the major league level and could conceivably level up. The Red Sox, even with guys like Mayer and Yorke and Bello are still behind.
If this team finishes last, or second to last in the division and misses the playoffs, I wonder if that changes the perception from some people who are high on Bloom, or if this is all part of the grander process of achieving greater franchise sustainability and finishing in the basement for a few years is tolerable.
Baltimore could very well regress and keep Boston out of the basement, but what worries me is not only to the Red Sox have probably the second weakest roster in their division, but also the least amount of young talent that you can expect to make leaps. Baltimore has a lot of guys like that because they've been stockpiling young players for years, Tampa and the Yankees all have strong young major league talent as well as interesting prospects on the come-up. The Blue Jays have a weaker farm system but far more young players that have shined at the major league level and could conceivably level up. The Red Sox, even with guys like Mayer and Yorke and Bello are still behind.
If this team finishes last, or second to last in the division and misses the playoffs, I wonder if that changes the perception from some people who are high on Bloom, or if this is all part of the grander process of achieving greater franchise sustainability and finishing in the basement for a few years is tolerable.
I agree.
But (I posted this in another thread, but it appears applicable to this discussion too), there is about a 51% chance that a 2nd round pick makes the majors as opposed to around 35% from the 4th round (assuming Baseball America to be a credible source). I think that percentage is significant enough when talking about two picks in round 2 vs two in round 4 AND the $1m allocation and a 67% chance of missing the playoffs SHOULD have outweighed not having those for a 33% chance at making them.
Especially if you could have gotten literally anything for Martinez, Hill, Wacha and even Strahm at the deadline. I don't know if they could have, but Speier at least seemed to think so.
Again, there were justifiable reasons for choosing the path Bloom did. There were also justifiable reasons to have said "we really should have sold more."
Speier https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/07/29/sports/last-days-jd-martinez-with-red-sox/
BBA Study https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/
One of the most reasonable and accurate posts I’ve seen in this thread. Entirely possible the Sox make the playoffs but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Going forward, as of now, they have the least amount of young talent in the division and it’s fair to wonder if their best player will be leaving (either in FA or trade). Smart money is that they finish last in the division.
Then again, anything could happen and there are a ton of variables throughout a season. Who knows?
I don't know about tolerable, but a couple years "in the basement" is certainly survivable if the young players/prospects they do have show progress. The reason the Sox are lighter on young talent than their division rivals is part of the price they paid for 2018. That's not meant as a dig at Dombrowski's drafting or player development ability (we've all beaten that to death) so much as stating that finishing in first place three straight years and spending as much as they did put them in a tougher position to draft/acquire quality young talent no matter who's at the helm.
The Orioles tanked hard to get their surplus of prospects. Toronto went through a fallow period to collect their young core. Tampa is constantly turning over their roster to keep the pipeline flowing, but even they bottomed out for a stretch (4th/4th/5th/3rd 2014-2017). The Yankees have even taken a turn barely contending for a few years to focus on building up their system. It's just the Sox turn to be on the cusp rather than a clear favorite in the division. I can live with that for now, provided there are good signs to come.
I'll eat my hat if those two second round picks they missed increase any team's chances of making the playoffs by 33%. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, especially when those two have a less than 50% chance of even making the majors.