It was a comment on the board's recent hot-take posting, generally, not your specific emotional state.
There's never any harm in looking at the actual numbers to see what's there.
Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office
- Thread starter Pozo the Clown
- Start date
There's never any harm in looking at the actual numbers to see what's there.
I mean I trust ya in terms of your own viewpoint - it's certainly not impossible to predict - but it also feels a bit enblematic of Sox fans reactions on the whole to pretty much anything right now to RR's point. Like, the Matt Barnes extension is pretty much exactly what most disgruntled Sox fans are begging the FO to do with the other talent on the team - extend high performing homegrown talent with club flexibility before they reach free agency at a discount even if there are legitimate concerns on the player related to the contract. I can believe you had doubts but the majority of Sox fans in these threads were really happy about that deal then and the main question was "why did he agree to so little", so to go back now like a lot of us knew this was coming feels off to me.Well there were like a couple dozen people who commented and 3-4 had some reservations. I wasn't spending much time on the main board then, but I didn't love the deal. You'll just have to trust me.
Granted the FO can't even sign a guy with a solid track record in a position of need to a minor league deal without fans crapping on them now so...*shrugs*
Totally fair. It's also why I'm saying so fervently right now that I dislike the idea of paying ANY of:
Martin, JRodriguez, Brasier or Taylor any money at all. One will probably be good. One will probably suck. One will probably be just above or just below "whatever" and one wildcard. I just think with where I believe we are right now, giving money to guys whom aren't expected to close is a poor allocation of funds.
It's also why, though I'm spending a ton of time criticizing Bloom and his general approach, I actually really like the Jansen deal and the Yoshida deal. Truth be told, I don't think we're going to be good enough for Jansen being good or bad to matter (short of moving him at the deadline, hopefully for something really good), but I'm trying to look at deals as they happen. I feel most general managers fall under the old "everyone's going to win 50 and lose 50 - its what you do in the other 62 that matters" adage. Bloom is going to have some wins (ie Pivetta, Renfroe part 1, Whitlock, etc) and he's going to have some losses (betting on Barnes, Renfroe part 2, Paxton) - just like any GM. I'm not optimistic for his "other 62" at all.
As an example, I actually REALLY LIKE the Goodrum acquisition. I think it's a good bet to use minor league deals whenever you can and MLB minimum type players for your bench roles and the bulk of your bullpen. Give me as many of these guys as you can for the bench and in Worcester and forget paying money to guys like Arroyo ($2.2m), Refsnyder ($1.2m) and whatever other bench pieces we have at present.
FWIW, when we signed Jansen, I honest to God thought we'd do something like re-sign Bogaerts, extend Devers, sign Chris Bassitt, sign Jameson Tallion and have (what I think) would be a pretty darn good team with a nice core for the next 3 to 4 years, and thus you'd want a good closer.
Of course, we've elected to do none of those things nor anything similar and I think the most likely scenario is another 78-84 type of team that is last place in the division, and what good does $16m on a closer do you, but I'm trying to be consistent and fair, so if I like a deal, I'm going to credit Bloom for something that I like.
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I can understand the point you are making. The problem is someone needs to fill the 2023 roster. Who fills the spots if we don’t pay these guys? The Sox are building out the system but most of the potential is below AA. The guys you mentioned are complementary players that aren’t making much and on short term contracts.
The Sox are never going to initiate a complete tank job. 2020 was an acceptable tank and paid off handsomely with Mayer. But 2021 did happen because a ton of things went right.
The team is going to struggle to win 80 games but if the injury bug doesn’t hit the SP staff the bolstered bullpen will keep the Sox competitive.
With expectations lowered, this is a team that has some new faces worth watching (Casas, Bello, Yoshida, Turner), a solid mix of guys that should have major chips on their shoulders (Sale, Story, Paxton) and bounce back/major career opportunity regulars (Kike, Arroyo, McGuire). Finding a way to sign Devers to a decent contracts only help the on-field product.
It is the team I’m stuck with and I don’t think it’s the end of the world.
We did a pretty good job of it in 2012 too (granted, that was in August) and 2014 (again, August). Too bad we didn't do it last year. Unfortunately in the first we took Trey Ball (but man did that class suck, and hey, we got the guy taken 14th in R McGuire), in the second we got Benintendi (coulda been Buehler I supposed, but really can't complain about landing Beni there).
FWIW, I'd go "non-tender roulette" there with guys whom are at least young and MIGHT have some upside but the more important thing is, they'd cost nothing.
Bull pen - (choose any number whom will take minor league / minimum deals of) Touki Toussaint, Josh James, Jared Koenig, Reyes Moronta, Drew Strotman, Nick Neidert, Alex Reyes.
Bench - (choose any number of...) Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, Rafael Ortega, Colton Welker, Dom Smith, Garrett Hampson, Jeimer Candelario, Adam Engel or any other "Nico Goodrum" type I'm not thinking of.
To be clear, I have no idea if any of these guys have signed elsewhere nor whom will or will not take minor league deals or even guaranteed MLB minimum. I just read the non-tender list, chose guys I've heard of before and omitted names that will / have certainly gotten more than minor league deals (ie Luke Voit). Also, the reason I say to do this is to go sing Devers to whatever he wants AND stay below the minimum this year.
As mentioned, I actually think:
Yoshida, Story, (extended) Devers, Turner, Casas, Segura, Verdugo, McGuire, Hernandez (regulars). Ortega, Welker, Goodrum, Wong, Dalbec (bench). Wacha, Bello, Pivetta, Houck/Whitlock, Mata (rotation). Jansen, Whitlock/Houck, Schrieber, Toussaint, Strotman, Barnes (we're stuck with him) would be a pretty interesting team. I also think it'd be just as likely to be good as what we have now; are likely to end up with.
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I did not have Segura on my radar a few weeks ago. He’s a signing that has on field upside depending on health. Better than average fielder, some RH pop and can steal a base. Not sure how much of an upgrade over Arroyo and might not be worth the investment. But an interesting player with real, top line success in his past.
I think the August part is key. Chaim Bloom didn't have the luxury of an August waiver trade period like Ben Cherington did in 2012 when he pulled off the Punto trade. In fact, the 2012 season might be a fair comparison to 2022. In 2012, they were 2 games out of the wildcard at the non-waiver trade deadline (sound familiar?). They made a couple moves (Lars Anderson for Steven Wright, Podsednik & Albers for Craig Breslow) at the deadline, neither buying big or selling big (sound familiar?). It wasn't until near the end of August that they made the Punto trade, at which point they were 8.5 back in the wildcard and clearly fading.
The GM can only deal with the information he has at the time.
FWIW, Segura (and Wacha) come waaaaaaay below 1) re-signing Bogaerts, 2) signing Swanson, 3) signing Correa and 1) Verlander, 2) Bassitt, 3) Tallion and 4) Senga for me. But I’m trying to make the best of what we’re left with. @chawson has brought up trading for Adames before, and I am totally on board with that, but again, I’m just trying to use free agents because I KNOW those guys are available, I don’t imagine Adames is.
I hate the idea of any of Segura, Andrus or Arroyo starting for the Boston Red Sox, but here we are.
Dan Roche, noted doe-eyed Sox superfan, co-hosted on Toucher & Rich yesterday and I thought he made a good point. Basically, he implored the Sox front office to not be afraid of transparently talking about their plan. He thinks if they speak more directly about waiting on the prospects to mature, bridging with vets, etc. that people will, if not accept it, at least understand it, and the temperature may go down.
Mostly it was just jarring to hear a guy who is as big a Sox apologist as exists saying pointedly negative things about the club. I mean when you lose Dan Roche you've really lost the fanbase.
Mostly it was just jarring to hear a guy who is as big a Sox apologist as exists saying pointedly negative things about the club. I mean when you lose Dan Roche you've really lost the fanbase.
For someone like me whose interest has waned, I am fully behind this. Telling the fanbase they are trying to compete and then having the offseason they are having simply doesn't add up. That is the most frustrating part of all of this. Their words don't match their actions, and so it seems like they aren't telling the truth.
Add in Chaim's reaction to X, and the SS situation in general, and you have a real mess.
I could see a scenario where Chaim gets fired partway through the 2023 season if the Sox get off to a rough start again. If they're somewhere around 20-30 on Memorial Day, I wonder if he survives.
I agree with this. Not everyone will accept it, but the people who will hate it the most are the people who already hate what they're doing.
Roche compared the FO to Danny Ainge, who showed up every week on T&R and very clearly explained what the Cs were doing. Agree or disagree, everyone knew what the plan was and how Danny was going about executing it. He never gave away state secrets or anything, but it was remarkably candid.
Does Dan remember the shit show that was the “bridge year” comments From 2010?
shitshow= medias reaction to it
So.. yah. I think there is a good reason they are not saying that publicly again
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So, guy in media says team should speak to the media more?
I'm more interested in the substance, and why they think a system with 1 better than solid prospect (Mayer) in High A, one cusp solid producer (Casas), one potentially solid starter (Bello) and a couple of interesting kids (Rafaella/York) are worth planning around?
I'm more interested in the substance, and why they think a system with 1 better than solid prospect (Mayer) in High A, one cusp solid producer (Casas), one potentially solid starter (Bello) and a couple of interesting kids (Rafaella/York) are worth planning around?
Duquette was a terrible messenger.
What was the reaction in town when Ainge made the same type of comments post-big three leaving?
Are you familiar with Roche? He's not exactly Tony Mazz and Felger. And his point was to explain things to the fans.
Duquette?
2010 was Theo. Theo who had two rings on his resume and still got shit on mercilessly for hinting that there might be a season where they're not necessarily going to be championship caliber.
Oh man, that was a terrible mistake by me. No clue what I was thinking. Somehow I read that as 2001!
I'll do 2 laps as punishment.
Agree as well. It would also enable the Dan Roches of the world, that unconditionally adore the team, to have something to get behind. He’s clearly saying he doesn’t see a plan either.
For me, I see a general direction: hold onto young cheap good prospects until they get to market. If there’s a plan, it looks more like a strategy: make positive value moves and limit risk. I’m not sure if there’s actually a plan that connects the two things in a structured way to winning.
They’re like the Red Sox underpants gnomes
1) collect prospects
2) ???
3) profit
Edit: hopefully ?? = trades…
Hypothetical where a choice between two bad things must be made. What does this group do? Chaim will go to committee and someone will (correctly) shoot down both and they choose neither…without a decent third choice.
They clearly don't believe in long, expensive contracts. There's no way the current ownership group would have approved siging Manny Ramirez for 8/160. To my mind, that's a problem for the Red Sox. We all can see the models: Atlanta, Houston, the Dodgers. But those teams got to where they are now by pathways the Red Sox do not want to tread -- hitting rock bottom for a few years, or spending wildly for a time to get established at the top. Those teams have also shown a penchant for bringing top talent into their systems in a way the Ted Sox haven't, with the exception of the 2011 draft.
I know the team has won four titles in less than twenty years, but the rules of the game seem to be changing rapidly, and this organization is falling behind. I;d just as soon see them punt this year and next and spend their time and money trying to hoard youg talent for a big push starting in 2025.
I know the team has won four titles in less than twenty years, but the rules of the game seem to be changing rapidly, and this organization is falling behind. I;d just as soon see them punt this year and next and spend their time and money trying to hoard youg talent for a big push starting in 2025.
The Manny contract ended up working out well but let’s not forget that BOS put him on waivers 3 years into that deal and anyone who claimed him and the remainder of his contract would have gotten him, but no other team took him so he stayed in BOS and won a couple of rings.
Which ownership was it that signed David Price for $57 million more and one fewer year?
Wait, I presume you’re talking about the Dodgers, but how does “spending wildly for a time to get established at the top” work in terms of setting up a sustainable pathway?
I think the Red Sox will be much better next season than people think. I am going to bet $100 on them winning east, going to World Series, and winning World Series. So $300 total DraftKings. I did this in 2021 and cleaned up. I think Bloom knows what he is doing. All these teams like Padres,Phillies and Mets will look good this year, but let's see how they look in 2024 and 2025. Bloom is playing long game. That's how you win in the stock market long game. People forget Bloom wrote the Ray's book on how to win. At this time next year people will think different about Bloom. I believe in him.
How? They didn't do any of those three things in 2021, they were a wild card team who lost in the ALCS.
That was the best Red Sox contract ever. MANNY delivered. Thank you Dan Duquette.
Andrew Friedman wrote that book and, not for nothing, that Rays winning book has exactly zero banners in it.
I don't think any team wants these kinds of deals, but they do exist. Typically, they work if you are trying to put an already good team over the top, or a team so bereft of talent you have to overpay to get a star to show up (these seem increasingly rare in mlb). FSG is not good enough to be one big signing away and they don't think they are bad enough to bottom out (whether they should is another question). The Padres want to win the WS now, the Sox aren't built that way, it makes plenty of sense for SD to pay for Xs good years right now. Moreover, I truly believe FSGs priorities are elsewhere now, so the objective is "save money". A few years ago when they had DD, the objective was clearly spend whatever was needed to get a WS. That is also why I take issue with all the "FSG has won 4 times in the last 20 years, they know what they are doing." I don't doubt that... but the years they won, they prioritized winning. Now the objective has changed.
The value of money has not remained constant over time. $160 million, agreed to in 2000, is worth $276 million today (according to something called the CPI Inflation Calculator). The current front office just lost Xander for essentially the same amount of money (actually less than Ramirez on an AAV basis).
Thier odds were so crazy after being bad in 2020 DraftKings let you cash out at a good price. My $300 was worth over $5000 in the summer of 2021. Draft Kings lets you cash out early for a good sum because if the Red Sox won it all in 2021 it would have been more than 5k. Right now Red Sox odds bad, but I expect they will make the playoffs. So I will cover the bets. $300 for a chance at $5k in August. I take it. I think Mets,Padres,Phillies and Yankees will be the biggest busts of 2023. Red Sox fans will enjoy it.lol
It was Neander(hope I spelled it right) and Bloom to my relocation. Bloom is smart he plays long game.
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I think you mean Neander and either way you’re 100% wrong. Friedman wrote that book. Others contributed to varying degrees (James Click, Neander, Bloom, Matt Silverman).
I don’t think there’s a single other person in the world that would give Bloom that much credit for the Rays and that includes members of the Bloom family
Great. Now do David Price in December 2015, which is the point I made.
I'll save you the trouble. 160 million in December 2000 works out to -- amazingly -- 217 million in 2015, which is the exact amount they paid for Price (for one fewer year).
That's actually a good question. At the time I assumed that the contract was just too much and Manny was considered to be too much of a headcase/malcontent. If he was only one of those things (an expensive model citizen or a cheap headcase) it would have been a different story.
I been studying Bloom and think Devers will not be resigned, unless ownership steps in. If you read Bloom on that baseball prospectus website before he joined the rays we find he thinks a player like Devers had his best years, and now a decline, so Devers will have a big year and depending on the situation he is traded at All-Star break or heads to another team as free agent. Only the owners can step up and keep Devers here.
And he was bad defensively, but I honestly don’t remember the specifics of how that all went down. I always kind of expected Manny would be a Yankee (pre Red Sox), since he grew up in the Bronx very close to Yankee Stadium, but clearly it never happened.
Manny got 2 rings. Proved the Yankees wrong. Was a Yankees killer. Would love a Manny on the Red Sox today. I trade Devers for Manny in a heart beat. That's the difference. Big Papi and Manny. Yankees feared them. They didn't fear Xander and Mookie.
FWIW, Manny and Ortiz 1-1 in career postseason series against NY, Mookie 1-0, Xander 2-0.
Anyway, let's try to do a better job staying on topic in these threads as @DennyDoyle'sBoil suggested earlier. Thanks.
T
The Yankees signed Mussina that off-season. Manny was very much the consolation prize for Duquette and the Sox, and they overpaid to secure him. In some ways, it was comparable to the Pads and Bogaerts. Desperate for a title and having just been jilted by their first choices, they threw crazy money at the next best option on the board. Worked out for the Sox, remains to be seen for the Pads.
Bumped into an old guy in Delray shopping for gifts who said he goes to the same club as one of the owners. Very nice guy and I didn’t push further on who. He said that Lebron owns 10% now. It’s not really that high is it?
Edit: sorry didn’t see your post JA. Apologies
Edit: sorry didn’t see your post JA. Apologies
The point is that there's no reason to think that the current front office is interested in making those kinds of deals (and certainly not anything like the Ramirez deal, which sparked this conversation). I don't even know why that's controversial. Contract terms from 2015 don't have much bearing on whether we should be confident about the current front office.
The fact that current front office apparently has no interest in paying *market rate* for premium players is why I've no confidence in them. At times, this ownership group has demonstrated such interest; the current front office, however, has not.
Manny was elite and 27 when he was signed by Boston. I love Xander but he’s not Manny. Not close.
Devers is not Manny either but probably closer. That contract to day would be closer to getting Soto for 8 years at $35m which I don’t doubt in the slightest that Bloom would trample Henry running to sign that contract
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Isnt this just proving the point? Theyve made one long term star commitment in 20 years that exceeded the biggest contract the team had signed when they bought the team. This is all with the market for player salaries (the more relevant metric) effectively doubling in the time period. I doubt there's another large market team that is operating in a similar manner - they are consistently breaking their own record. For somewhat comparable teams:
- the largest deal the yankees had handed out at the time was Jeters' 10/190 (much higher benchmark). That is now 4th on the list (Judge, Arod, Cole). There are a number more deals that exceed the Manny benchmark.
- The Dodgers largest deal at that time was Kevin Brown's 7/105. That is now the 6th largest (Kershaw, Kemp, Grienke, Freeman, Betts); not including taking on the Gonzalez and Crawford money and all of Betts, Kershaw, and Freeman got more than Manny's deal we're benchmarking.
- Basically all of the Cubs contracts are larger than what they had in 2002 and both Heyward and Swanson is larger than the Manny deal.
- I dont think we need to detail the Mets, Rangers, or Braves but they all have many larger deals in the past decade.
Who is this "FSG" you keep mentioning? And when did he share such intimate thoughts with you?
Manny had just come off his age 28 season with Cleveland, hitting 38 homers and slashing .351/.457/.697/1.154, 186 ops+.
From 1998-2003 he had bWAR numbers ranging from 4.8 to 7.3. His worst ops over that stretch was .976, a year in which he hit 45 homers and drove in 145 runs.
Xander's had two seasons in his career with a bWAR of 5 or better. He's had an ops over .890 just once in his career.
I agree - he's not in the same universe as Manny.