Pitching Depth
- Thread starter grimshaw
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Hitters swing paths now seem able to launch low sinkers at a more optimum angle more often than high fast balls. In the latter case the uppercut swing results in FB with too high an angle to get distance or just a whiffWith the launch angle "revolution" swing.... one would think that a heavy sinker would be something most pitchers would be jumping on and pitching coaches would really emphasize and look to develop.
Also.... shit... if Rick can look like his 2016 version of Rick... we get a fully healthy vintage Price and something even close to last years versions of Sale and Pomeranz and it won't matter who the hell is in the 5 slot!
.... I still think EdRo will turn into maybe not quite an ace, but a guy who would be a "no. 2" on most other clubs. We've seen what he can do when he's healthy and... not tipping pitches.
Of course if you become too predictable with the high fastball hitters can adjust their swing. We saw that last year with Judge. Pitchers discovered somewhat belatedly they could get him out with the high fastball after the ASB (his shoulder contributed to that). But they got too predictable and he flattened his swing and started to punish the high FB by September
Its a game of constant adjustments for both pitcher and hitter
If you were intending to be humorous, you succeeded. I literally laughed out loud when I read this. I thank you for that.
If you were being completely serious, in the hypothetical event that their rates were to drop to this level, there would be many other teams vying for their services.
Not completely serious but In this market I wouldnt be surprised one of these guys Price might drop and with some creative structuring might get low enough to jump on. Fenways HR suppression and a top defensive OF might not be an unattractive option
It was actually a tricep tightness and had adverse effects on his performance for the first 2 months (first 8 starts less than 5 IP per start and 4.97 ERA because it impacted his pitch selection) .
Price also had forearm tightness which he said was an annual thing and missed over 2 months.
Just have to wait and see.
Not completely serious but In this market I wouldn't be surprised one of these guys Price might drop and with some creative structuring might get the AAV low enough to jump on. Fenways HR suppression ability and a top defensive OF might not be an unattractive option for them. Next year might be a better year for a SPer to test the market so a deal with ouptout after 1 year might do the trick.
Some further info from the link below:
Two years ago, Pomeranz pitched through a left forearm injury and wound up having a stem cell injection during the offseason.
How did Friday's discomfort compare to 2016?
"Nothing like I had before. That's why I'm not too worried about it," Pomeranz said. "Pretty sure this is probably nothing. We've been taking it pretty slow, anyways, so I don't want to push anything. Give myself enough time to be ready for the season."
https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-drew-pomeranz-exits-with-injury/c-267681798
Sounds like a big relief for him and the team. Here’s hoping it really is nothing.
Still, back to the topic of this thread, today made me realize that between ERod, Johnson, Wright, and Velasquez they’ve actually got decent starting depth.
Still, back to the topic of this thread, today made me realize that between ERod, Johnson, Wright, and Velasquez they’ve actually got decent starting depth.
They do and don’t. ERod is not back yet and coming off surgery. Wright is not back yet and coming off serious surgery. Those two can’t be counted on until they get completely through rehab and are simply pitching again and not rehabbing. Johnson was both very good and very bad in his limited time up last year. Velasquez showed some great and some not so great in a very limited role as a spot starter.
So 2 heathy guys of those 4, and they are the two biggest question marks with no lengthy proven track record.
If you count all 4 of them as depth, then we have just 4 starters in MLB: Sale, Price, Pom and Porcello. Obviously the “if everything goes right” situation with these 3 is almost limitless. IF Sale is a Sale, Price stays healthy and is Price from the last month/playoffs, Pom’s arm is ok and he can repeat his 2017, and Porcello is Cy Young and not what we saw in ‘15 and ‘17, then sure we have depth. But on this list, Sale is the ONLY one I feel comfortable counting on. There seems just as good a chance to me that Price has arm issues again, Pom’s arm issues are something as opposed to nothing, and Porcello is meh again. That leaves good Sale, meh Porcello, Johnson, Rodriguez and x pitcher unless and until ERod and/or Wright come back and come back effectively. There are too many ifs
(compound ifs at that) in this group of pitchers for me to feel comfortable with this depth. I think we need another starter. It may come later if all the ifs don’t work out after giving it a try, and it would be in the form of a Doug Fister type again. But it sure would be nice if there was a guy we could grab now who gives us one more decent arm. I don’t trust Elias or Beeks yet to be that one more decent arm.
We might be able to frontload a one year Arrieta deal with opt outs after each start.
There is such potential in this concept for a film or short story lampooning present day baseball. Imagine the Red Sox sign someone to a contract like this. That players puts out a CYA caliber season, leading the team to a division title and heading into the postseason as slight favorites to win it all. Then the pitcher opts out after his last start, suddenly holding the team's playoff ambitions hostage. The media reaction alone might be worth the agony.
While opt outs generally benefit the team (as has been well documented on this board), the bolded is a clear exception to the general rule.
Lackey had a strong second half of the season last year, if we are the only ones offering him a spot, would he still refuse to play here?
Perhaps if the chicken and beer perks were to his liking, he could be cajoled.
If John Lackey comes back here, I will eat my hat. Imagine the boos he’d endure upon having a stinker game. No way.
If he came begging for a spot, would DD offer him a contract? I highly doubt the Sox want any part of him.
I'd like to know where and when this was established. I thought it had been unequivocally established that opt outs were ALWAYS bad for the team and that exceptions were impossible...While opt outs generally benefit the team (as has been well documented on this board), the bolded is a clear exception to the general rule.
Why? DD wasn't here when Lackey was. There'd be no reason for acrimony between them. The only knock against Lackey is that he allegedly was grousing about having to play out that team option here. His teammates liked him well enough (the few that remain probably wouldn't raise a stink).
If Lackey wanted to come back on an affordable offer (league minimum?
) and DD thought he could be productive, there's no way they wouldn't do it.
Therein lies the true beauty of SoSH, as this was also unequivocally established.
Some updates on fringe guys. I'm just looking at the small sample sizes since most relievers will only be around 10 innings total by the end of the spring.
Shepherd got rocked today (4 ER in .1)
Robbie Scott has given up 3 runs in 3 innings
Poyner gave up his first hit and run today in his 4th appearance
Barnes, Walden, Johnson, Workman and Elias all haven't allowed an earned run. Walden is a long shot but was a swing man in AAA last year and pitched pretty well. Austin Maddox hasn't appeared yet because of a slight injury.
Thornburg still hasn't pitched. I don't know how many innings he needs but would assume at least 5. Even if he gets in a game in the next week or so - which is doubtful, I'm not sure he'll be on the roster to start the season since he'll probably need a few days off in between appearances. They really don't need to rush him since the depth is pretty good.
Right now I think it's Smith, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, Barnes, Kimbrel and one of Maddox or Johnson with Velazquez starting.
I would have said Poyner but he needs to be added to the 40 man first.
Shepherd got rocked today (4 ER in .1)
Robbie Scott has given up 3 runs in 3 innings
Poyner gave up his first hit and run today in his 4th appearance
Barnes, Walden, Johnson, Workman and Elias all haven't allowed an earned run. Walden is a long shot but was a swing man in AAA last year and pitched pretty well. Austin Maddox hasn't appeared yet because of a slight injury.
Thornburg still hasn't pitched. I don't know how many innings he needs but would assume at least 5. Even if he gets in a game in the next week or so - which is doubtful, I'm not sure he'll be on the roster to start the season since he'll probably need a few days off in between appearances. They really don't need to rush him since the depth is pretty good.
Right now I think it's Smith, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, Barnes, Kimbrel and one of Maddox or Johnson with Velazquez starting.
I would have said Poyner but he needs to be added to the 40 man first.
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well by default I think it would be Johnson. I can't imagine you go with all righties, even if you care about handedness less than before. (Beeks?)
If you are cojoling someone, using Coq aux vin and a nice chablis.
(Cultural misappropriation all my own)
I am not 100% certain, but I believe O'B and Lyons yesterday mentioned how good Thornburg looked on the mound. He may have pitched in a minor league game in the last couple of days.
They probably meant doing a bullpen session.
From this article - http://www.telegram.com/news/20180305/red-sox-boston-reliever-tyler-thornburg-not-concerned-about-bullpen-role
“I don’t think anybody really knows that exact point I’m going to be back,” he said. “If I come back a couple of weeks into the season, or whatever it may be, honestly I don’t think there’s really any telling, ‘hey, you’re going to be throwing the eighth inning,’ or ‘hey you’re going to be in this role at first.’
Per Pete Abe - Cora noted that they didn't necessarily need a lefty in the pen if righties could get the job done. Seems like that gives Poyner a shot if Johnson slides into the 5th starter slot.
He also noted that he wouldn't have an issue bringing Kimbrel in to pitch the 8th instead of the 9th if needed. We'll see how that goes . . .
He also noted that he wouldn't have an issue bringing Kimbrel in to pitch the 8th instead of the 9th if needed. We'll see how that goes . . .
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If Moustakos is getting 1 year $6.5 million then there is value to be had this offseason.
Our starting pitching depth is weak and if our window is really shrinking then offer Lackey a guaranteed role and salary. I think a one year $4 million salary would work for both parties with incentives to raise it to $6 million. That is a steal over what Dickey ($8 million) and Colon ($12 million) signed for last year.
Lackey pitched well the second half of last season and is a reliable innings eater at the end of the rotation for a team that has World Series aspirations.
Our starting pitching depth is weak and if our window is really shrinking then offer Lackey a guaranteed role and salary. I think a one year $4 million salary would work for both parties with incentives to raise it to $6 million. That is a steal over what Dickey ($8 million) and Colon ($12 million) signed for last year.
Lackey pitched well the second half of last season and is a reliable innings eater at the end of the rotation for a team that has World Series aspirations.
Am I the only one with the feeling that statistics won't matter here? Lackey ain't coming back, and it doesn't have a lot to do with what good he could do on the mound, and all to do with what bad he could do off it.
I'd like to sign another starter to put Pomeranz in the pen and perhaps reduce the wear and tear on his elbow. Rotation is way too left handed in a division dominated by RH sluggers
Its really going to depend on how much the price drops on Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta. At some price you just have to go for it. Too many guys in that rotation with red flags and I am not as impressed with the depth as some are
Its really going to depend on how much the price drops on Lynn, Cobb or Arrieta. At some price you just have to go for it. Too many guys in that rotation with red flags and I am not as impressed with the depth as some are
I cant even imagine how hard for me it would be with Price and Lackey on the same team. My 2 least favorite players ever.
That said, how much bad off the mound could he do? Didn't hurt us in 2013
Pomeranz would likely (and rightly so) demand a trade if they demoted him to the pen the year before he hits free agency for nothing to do with performance issues.
He had a 3.70 ERA against the east last year too. The Rays gave him the most trouble and their lineup is going to be terrible.
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You want to take a guy who made 30+ starts (for the second straight season), went 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA and a 9+ K/9, and put him in the pen? He’s been worth 4 bWAR two years in a row now. That seems crazy to me. Especially when some those RH sluggers do worse against LHP in their career (ie. Judge, Sanchez, Jones) or have negligible platoon splits (ie Machado, Morales). Pomeranz has the potential to be battling Price for the #2 slot all season, and absolutely deserves a shot to do so.
I disagree with putting Pom in the bullpen but I agree the depth isn’t as good as I’d like. If anything, I’d like to see the Sox acquire a swingman that could spot start and provide multiple innings out of the bullpen.
But Price and Lackey make it tough for him and we shouldn't push our luck giving Pomeranz another chance to be a 4-win pitcher.
Brandon McCarthy still seems like the ideal guy for this. The Braves have no use for him and he’s hard to count on for a full season, but he can start and posts elite numbers first time through the order.
Don’t think the Braves want our offal (Holt, maybe?) but if they’d cover half his contract, he’d help, especially since Thornburg hasn’t thrown a pitch.
Internally, Elias could play more of a role this year. He’s converted to a “sidearm-style” (per ESPN’s Scott Lauber) and is more of a LOOGY-type now than a starter/swingman, but he’s not looking bad this spring (7 IP, 1 H, 4 BB, 6 K).
Unless there's a big injury in the next week or two, the Red Sox aren't going to sign anyone who requires us to give up our second round draft pick and international pool money.
"A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick."
Not worth giving up the pick and pool money and also going right next to or over the next luxury tax line for one year of the qualifying offer guys who are out there.
Big Lack wouldn't cost picks or pool money, but he would probably prefer to sign somewhere he would have more chance of getting starts all year long. He might not have much choice, but the Red Sox don't seem to be interested in adding any more payroll at this point for a guy who might not have a rotation spot a month into the season. If it starts looking like Eduardo and/or Wright could be out longer than anticipated, that could change but right now the team seems fine with what they have.
"A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft, as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick."
Not worth giving up the pick and pool money and also going right next to or over the next luxury tax line for one year of the qualifying offer guys who are out there.
Big Lack wouldn't cost picks or pool money, but he would probably prefer to sign somewhere he would have more chance of getting starts all year long. He might not have much choice, but the Red Sox don't seem to be interested in adding any more payroll at this point for a guy who might not have a rotation spot a month into the season. If it starts looking like Eduardo and/or Wright could be out longer than anticipated, that could change but right now the team seems fine with what they have.
Is our depth actually that bad? I see Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Velazquez, Johnson, Beeks — 9 deep in pitchers I wouldn't mind seeing on the mound. Then there's a whole group of interesting pitchers in AA like Shawaryn, Raudes, and Jimenez, any of whom could take a step forward and augment the back of the depth picture by mid-season.
One way to evaluate this question is to think about which teams have *better* rotation depth than we do. Just eyeballing the contenders: LAD doesn't. The Cubs don't. I don't think Houston does. The Yankees and the Tribe probably do, and the Nationals almost certainly do. So unscientifically, I would judge that we're in the middle of the pack for rotation depth among teams with credible WS aspirations. A lot of these teams get to a Beeks-type unproven pitcher before the 9th spot on their depth chart.
Now Rodriguez and Wright aren't quite back yet, and Price and Pomeranz have elbow concerns of varying severity. So there's a real possibility that multiple simultaneous injuries could have us leaning harder on guys like Velazquez or Johnson than we want to. But Sale and Porcello are both good bets to throw a lot of innings, as good bets as starting pitchers ever are. If anything we need another starter in AAA to fortify the 6-8 spots on that depth chart, not FA types. I don't anticipate Lackey taking a minor league deal, so if trading Swihart could get me an okay MLB-ready starter with 2-3 options left — Manaea is probably a reach, but someone like that — I do that deal.
One way to evaluate this question is to think about which teams have *better* rotation depth than we do. Just eyeballing the contenders: LAD doesn't. The Cubs don't. I don't think Houston does. The Yankees and the Tribe probably do, and the Nationals almost certainly do. So unscientifically, I would judge that we're in the middle of the pack for rotation depth among teams with credible WS aspirations. A lot of these teams get to a Beeks-type unproven pitcher before the 9th spot on their depth chart.
Now Rodriguez and Wright aren't quite back yet, and Price and Pomeranz have elbow concerns of varying severity. So there's a real possibility that multiple simultaneous injuries could have us leaning harder on guys like Velazquez or Johnson than we want to. But Sale and Porcello are both good bets to throw a lot of innings, as good bets as starting pitchers ever are. If anything we need another starter in AAA to fortify the 6-8 spots on that depth chart, not FA types. I don't anticipate Lackey taking a minor league deal, so if trading Swihart could get me an okay MLB-ready starter with 2-3 options left — Manaea is probably a reach, but someone like that — I do that deal.
It may be? I don't want to be pessimistic or chicken littlish, but Price, Pom and Rodriguez aren't out of the woods. Velazquez doesn't really have strikeout stuff, Wright may be the most volatile starter in baseball and still hasn't thrown a pitch, and Beeks gave up six runs to the Twins this afternoon without recording an out. A worst-case scenario rotation of Sale/Porcello/Velazquez/Johnson/Haley would be extremely bad.
I think LAD's as good as ours but at least as precarious. The Cubs have less injury risk 1-5 and a terrific #6 in Mike Montgomery, and the Astros' depth is unbelievable.
The A's did a good job rebuilding/-hyping Sonny Gray into trade bait, and I expect they'll do that with Manaea after his down year and wait. But there aren't a ton of these guys, and their trade value is hard to gauge. I think Swihart wouldn't net Manaea, but Odorizzi, who has the same number of years of team control, fetched next to nothing.
If he's healthy this spring, Steven Matz seems like the mound analog of Swihart, a once-touted prospect who lost a couple years to injury. I don't do that deal unless his velocity is back, but then the Mets probably don't either.
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Yes, our starting depth is that bad.
3 out of our possible top 6 starters could start the year on the DL. 2 out of our top 4 starters have elbow issues.
Sure if everyone is 100% we do have near the top of the league in starting pitching depth. But at this point I’d rather address it with $ than with prospects and money at the deadline. This team has a chance at a championship let’s not blow it over $6 million.
Okay, so your choices are a) to sign someone to a mL deal, b) lose Wright to waivers, or c) option Rodriguez.
There aren't actually a ton of moves we could make with $6m that actually improve our depth picture, given those constraints. That's why I was discussing a trade for an optionable starter better than Velazquez or Beeks to stash in AAA.
I'm not confident, for example, that replacing Wright with a 39 year old Lackey who pitched pretty badly in the NL Central is a great move, and I'm pretty pessimistic about Wright. I also don't imagine Lackey is signing a mL deal. If you can get Arrieta for that $6m, great. This year, who can say what's possible? But otherwise, I'm not seeing a move that actually improves our pitching situation.
Lackey in the second half of last season (14 games, 13 starts) was 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.208 WHIP. Definitely not pitching badly and good stats as a 5th starter, his first half wasn’t good but he finished strong.
FWIW, Lance Lynn just signed a 1-year deal with the Twins for $12M (link below).
https://www.mlb.com/news/lance-lynn-twins-agree-to-one-year-deal/c-268389780
I wouldn’t be excited about it, but I could see Anibal Sanchez brought in on a mL deal to see if Leon and LeVangie could tweak him.
He looks mostly done, but his K/BB is still solid (3.59:1 — between Darvish and Cole) and he might benefit from a pitch mix overhaul.
He looks mostly done, but his K/BB is still solid (3.59:1 — between Darvish and Cole) and he might benefit from a pitch mix overhaul.
I think the only way they add payroll is to add a true difference maker. They have $7 million to play with according to the projected CBT payroll on Cots' Tax Tracker. If a player like a Jake Arrieta is willing to take a short-term deal it's a win-win situation. The player gets to get back on the market soon and the team gets a stud pitcher to add to a Sale-Price led rotation. If they've spent what they've spent, why hold back now? This is a chance to take advantage of the market and put themselves closer to matching the strength of Houston's rotation and also adding another quality RHP to go against the RHH power of the Yankees.
This being where the rotation ends up would require a level of bad injury luck that would sink every rotation in the majors. If this is how we are defining depth then we have reduced the term to the point where it has no functional meaning anymore.
I think DDski is done for the spring, unless Sanchez becomes available on a MiLB deal or DFA.
And that’s okay. Sale-Price-Porcello-can hang with anyone’s top three.
It’s surprising that Arrieta is available now, but it’s not worth the long-term penalties to sign him.
Quick question, if he's on an mL deal, how do LeVangie and Leon(?) "tweak" him? The team has already made its first wave of cuts to the roster, sending guys to the minor league camp. At this point, I would think the major league coaches (and catchers) are focusing on the major league players and the minor league coaches are focusing on the minor league players.
If Sanchez will sign a mL deal and toil for Pawtucket for a month or two as more veteran injury insurance than guys like Beeks and Velezquez provide, bring him on. But I very much doubt they'd sign him because they think they can magically fix him in that time.
Maybe Bannister, I should have said. They seemed to be up to the task with Fister midseason last year.