Ping Pong Luck: If not the Celtics...

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
3,086
That 3 way Memphis tiebreaker worked out perfectly for the Celtics.

If Memphis won the coin flips, they have Zion diminishing the value of the future pick.
If Memphis lost the coin flips, the Celtics would've gotten the 10th pick this year.
Splitting the difference ended up being the best case for Boston.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
31,190
Haiku
Why does everyone think New Orleans is a bad landing spot for Zion?

He had no chance to land in LA, and only the slimmest chance to end up in NY. Dallas would have been the best situation among the non-longshots, but New Orleans doesn’t strike me as markedly worse than the others, and it’s probably the second-best city in the mix, after Chicago.

I mean, he could have wound up in Cleveland or Memphis.
I agree with P'tuck and you: New Orleans is the perfect spot for Zion. He'll be in the western conference; he won't improve the trading positions of New York, Los Angeles or numerous others in the AD Sweepstakes; and he will be great for basketball in New Orleans, which is a great city in need of a break.
 

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
3,760
That 3 way Memphis tiebreaker worked out perfectly for the Celtics.

If Memphis won the coin flips, they have Zion diminishing the value of the future pick.
If Memphis lost the coin flips, the Celtics would've gotten the 10th pick this year.
Splitting the difference ended up being the best case for Boston.
Red did say Danny was the luckiest guy he knew.
 

Scoops Bolling

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 19, 2007
3,782
I agree with P'tuck and you: New Orleans is the perfect spot for Zion. He'll be in the western conference; he won't improve the trading positions of New York, Los Angeles or numerous others in the AD Sweepstakes; and he will be great for basketball in New Orleans, which is a great city in need of a break.
What the Pelicans need is for Benson to sell (although they'd need another local owner to keep the team there), or to stop trying these damn "LeBron in Cleveland, the 1st time" strategies. Trade AD for young pieces, maybe try the same with Jrue if anyone will take that contract, and build organically.
 

maufman

Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Gold Supporter
They gotta go Morant with Conley aging.
The Grizzlies suck. Taking the BAP is a no-brainer.

I think that’s Morant, but I’m not even sure that’s the majority view, let alone the consensus.

Edit: Actually, the first four mocks I turned up on a Google search all had Morant going #2. That’s a shift from a couple months ago.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
34,777
You guys seem surprisingly confident that NO will still trade AD. That seems odd. If anything this greatly enhances the possibility that he stays there.
What interest does AD have in playing with a 19 year old when he’s trying to win a title somewhere?
 

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,146
What interest does AD have in playing with a 19 year old when he’s trying to win a title somewhere?
I'm not saying that it's the most likely scenario, but at least Griffin has a future he can sell AD on now. Pelicans have the financial advantage and the allure of a young star to pair him with. At the very least I think they'll wait rather than deal him July 1.
 

vicirus

lurker
Jul 17, 2005
50
If Kyrie leaves, what would it take to convince Memphis to trade us the #2 pick? Obviously they’d want the rights to their pick back, but would that along with #14, #20, #22 and a sign and traded Rozier be anywhere close? If they aren’t sold on Ja, maybe they’d think about it? They’d then get out of purgatory and be able to go full rebuild.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
34,777
If Kyrie leaves, what would it take to convince Memphis to trade us the #2 pick? Obviously they’d want the rights to their pick back, but would that along with #14, #20, #22 and a sign and traded Rozier be anywhere close? If they aren’t sold on Ja, maybe they’d think about it? They’d then get out of purgatory and be able to go full rebuild.
In theory that’s an interesting question. One of the picks sent to Minnesota in the KG trade was a return of their own future pick, which they were then able to use on Steph Curry.

Just kidding they passed and took Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio instead.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
3,086
If Kyrie leaves, what would it take to convince Memphis to trade us the #2 pick? Obviously they’d want the rights to their pick back, but would that along with #14, #20, #22 and a sign and traded Rozier be anywhere close? If they aren’t sold on Ja, maybe they’d think about it? They’d then get out of purgatory and be able to go full rebuild.
No.

You can't trade a prime asset like the #2 pick in the draft for a bulk package of much lesser assets.

They have to hunt for a star at #2.
 

maufman

Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Gold Supporter
If Kyrie leaves, what would it take to convince Memphis to trade us the #2 pick? Obviously they’d want the rights to their pick back, but would that along with #14, #20, #22 and a sign and traded Rozier be anywhere close? If they aren’t sold on Ja, maybe they’d think about it? They’d then get out of purgatory and be able to go full rebuild.
No. If the Grizzlies want to trade that puck, they’ll have much better offers than this.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,130
Probably not, they have not really been competitive with him and a rookie isn’t changing that this year.
They did win a playoff series last year, in the West.

I’m not saying they would win the NBA title next year, but that’s probably not happening for him anywhere next year. 2 or 3 years down the road, NO with Davis/Jrue/Zion and cap space...you could do a lot worse.
 

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
3,760
Sidenote, but Dallas winding up at #10 closes the book on the Doncic/Young trade. I think Dallas would rather have rolled it over and hoped to convey a lower pick next year, but on the other hand, if you asked Cuban if the #10 was worth the price to grab Luka, he probably says yes. Likewise, I bet Atlanta is annoyed at not getting a pick a few spots closer to #5, but they’re probably happy with that trade today, too.

Also, with LAL, Memphis and NO all jumping, that pushed a few teams (Cleveland, Pheonix, Chicago, Atlanta, Washington) down three spots from their lottery position. That’s a pretty raw deal, but that’s the new lottery system for ya.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
You guys seem surprisingly confident that NO will still trade AD. That seems odd. If anything this greatly enhances the possibility that he stays there.
Davis has demanded a trade. Drafting a teenager #1 isn’t going to change that. The Pelicans are rebuilding and he’s essentially an expiring contract for their team building purposes.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,056
Sidenote, but Dallas winding up at #10 closes the book on the Doncic/Young trade. I think Dallas would rather have rolled it over and hoped to convey a lower pick next year, but on the other hand, if you asked Cuban if the #10 was worth the price to grab Luka, he probably says yes. Likewise, I bet Atlanta is annoyed at not getting a pick a few spots closer to #5, but they’re probably happy with that trade today, too.

Also, with LAL, Memphis and NO all jumping, that pushed a few teams (Cleveland, Pheonix, Chicago, Atlanta, Washington) down three spots from their lottery position. That’s a pretty raw deal, but that’s the new lottery system for ya.
Love the new flat odds. Go ahead and tank, teams. Won’t guarantee you squat.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
2,171
Well the new lottery definitely worked from a “Fuck the Tankers” perspective. Cleveland doesn’t deserve another #1, New York sucktitude doesn’t get completely rewarded, Phoenix - fuck you.

Kind of funny that a MEM team that tried like hell to win at the end of the year for the pick to convey gets rewarded with #2.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
4,746
Same thing he was always going to do. Go to LA next summer.
Are they going to punt on another season with Lebron? If they don't trade for him now it's going to be very hard for them to compete this year and still have the max cap space for him in summer 2020.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,513
Are they going to punt on another season with Lebron? If they don't trade for him now it's going to be very hard for them to compete this year and still have the max cap space for him in summer 2020.
They’ll try to trade for him, try to sign another max free agent. If neither approach works they’ll try and cash in on someone like Beal and preserve cap space for Davis next summer.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
4,746
They’ll try to trade for him, try to sign another max free agent. If neither approach works they’ll try and cash in on someone like Beal and preserve cap space for Davis next summer.
if they trade for Beal or sign a comparable max guy in free agency (harris, butler, kemba) and then fill out the roster with 1 year contracts they're not going anywhere in the west next year, then it's hoping that in 2 years Lebron is still Lebron, that's a big gamble to take if they have the chance instead to add 2 max guys this summer
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
4,746
If Donovan Mitchell can lead the Jazz to the playoffs, then I think that James and Beal can manage the trick in LA.
Make the playoffs sure, they also lost in the first round in 5 games, not sure that's the goal the lakers were hoping for when they signed Lebron
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,513
In the new west the Rockets are vulnerable, and if rumors are to be believed, and Durant is forming Superfriends Part Deux with Kyrie, so’s Golden State. The west is going to be a lot more open, and James and Beal would be a really nice starting point.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
17,611
In the new west the Rockets are vulnerable, and if rumors are to be believed, and Durant is forming Superfriends Part Deux with Kyrie, so’s Golden State. The west is going to be a lot more open, and James and Beal would be a really nice starting point.
I think Beal is also very underrated on this board. The fact that he’s mentioned with Kemba and Tobias Harris as comparables is where I’m going with this. He’s a legit 5-tool stud in this league.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,130
Tatum might be better than any one of Knox, Smith, or Barrett. But all three? With Mitch Robinson and draft picks to toss in if they need further sweeteners? New York’s godfather offer is going to be tough to beat.
The Celtics can add to their offer too. The only realistic scenario I see of someone trumping them is if Philly offers Simmons.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
9,556
Somewhere
The Celtics can add to their offer too. The only realistic scenario I see of someone trumping them is if Philly offers Simmons.
I think that's what people are missing -- I've been banging this drum for a while -- but it's usually not wise to bet against the field. Philly and Toronto are two teams that have the juice to make a move and might do so. I don't have the imagination to come up with others, but I'm sure there are.
 

Soxfan in Fla

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2001
7,029
I think that's what people are missing -- I've been banging this drum for a while -- but it's usually not wise to bet against the field. Philly and Toronto are two teams that have the juice to make a move and might do so. I don't have the imagination to come up with others, but I'm sure there are.
Serious question. What do either of those teams have? NO is going to want two young assets. The Philly and Toronto picks are useless to NO. Neither possess other teams picks that may draft high to my knowledge. They have Simmons and Siakam respectively but what other young players do with realistically have? Most bad teams like the Suns aren’t going to throw assets because AD wouldn’t resign there. Most good teams don’t have the assets. The Knicks have some young assets that are enticing. The Celts have Tatum and the Grizz pick and could add if needed. The Lakers don’t really have enticing assets as they all have issues.

To me it is Boston and the Knicks.
 

Big John

lurker
Dec 9, 2016
1,524
I wouldn't sleep on the Clips. They have lots of young talent and maybe AD wouldn't mind playing with Kawhi Leonard. They also happen to play in AD's preferred city.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
5,225
Let's hypothetically say that Kyrie's return stunted the growth of Brown and Tatum. There seems to be enough NBA commentators that believe that, that there may be truth in it. Let's suppose that it is. Let's further suppose that Kyrie is gone and and AD deal doesn't happen with Boston. And let's also say that Rozier and Morris leave. So that leaves the Celtics with:

G - Wanamaker, Smart, Brown
F - Tatum, Hayward, Ojeleye, Williams, Yabu
C - Horford, Theis, Baynes

Plus three first round picks in this upcoming draft. You'd have to say they need to acquire a veteran point guard. But the real question I want to ask is: if Kyrie stunted Tatum and Brown's growth, without him, and with the two of them probably in line to be the leading scorers on the team, how much development might we see from them in 2019-20 if Kyrie isn't on the team? Enough to make them two all-star type players (even if they don't make the actual all-star roster)? Might this team, if they get to that level, be good enough to cause some havoc in the Eastern Conference playoffs?
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,130
The #3 or #4 pick has real value that I think we're understating here.


I know that sitting here in May, people are calling this a 2 man draft, but remember - that is never actually the case. You would have to go back at least a decade to find a draft where no Jayson Tatum caliber player is available after #3 - frankly, I can't find a single draft like that, and I stopped looking at 2009.
Sure, of the 58 players picked after #2, there will usually be another Jayson Tatum. The problem is that you don't always get him, even when you pick first among that group. My guess is Jayson Tatum two years into his rookie deal trumps the complete rookie deal for someone who has a 50% (or whatever) chance of being Jayson Tatum.

EDIT: Or, what WBCD said.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
3,878
Lisbon, PT
Sure, of the 58 players picked after #2, there will usually be another Jayson Tatum. The problem is that you don't always get him, even when you pick first among that group. My guess is Jayson Tatum two years into his rookie deal trumps the complete rookie deal for someone who has a 50% (or whatever) chance of being Jayson Tatum.

EDIT: Or, what WBCD said.
Yeah, Tatum is weird to price just because guys at his age, with his track record, simply don’t hit the market—their original teams hang on to them for dear life. It’s true even for someone one tier lower, like Jaylen Brown: the Celtics just couldn’t bring themselves to trade a good track record 21 year old, even for Kawhi (admittedly there were extenuating factors).

Ben Simmons was untradeable for AD from Philly’s perspective. He only has one year of his rookie deal left, and is obviously not nearly the player AD is.

Young age + proven ability to compete in the NBA is gold in terms of value to NBA GMs.
 

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
3,760
We should have known NO would get #1. David Griffin now has 4 #1s in his career. That's got to be a record.
Zach Lowe’s recap pieces on the actually ping pong ball drawing is always a fun read for stuff like this:
Gentry wore a black tie with silver-gray striping. It was his good-luck charm. David Griffin, New Orleans' new executive vice president of basketball operations, gave it to Gentry. Griffin was a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers' front office during a stretch in which the Cavs won three lotteries in four years, from 2011 to 2014. Each time, a man named Jeff Cohen -- a former vice chair for the Cavs and confidant of owner Dan Gilbert -- represented the team in the drawing room.

I began referring to Cohen as a warlock. Gilbert and Cohen had some sort of falling out, and the Cavs have not had him in the room in either of the past two lotteries. (Cleveland owned Brooklyn's pick a year ago.) I half-jokingly said the Cavs had cursed themselves.

And then Gentry revealed the ultimate plot twist: The tie Gentry wore Tuesday was the same one Cohen wore in each of those three lottery wins. Griffin had phoned Cohen and asked for a good-luck charm in the lead-up to the lottery, he told ESPN.com in the aftermath Tuesday. Cohen scoffed at the idea that any trinket could win the favor of the lottery gods. Griffin asked if he might please send the tie. Cohen did. Griffin passed it on to Gentry.

Put Jeff Cohen and his damned tie in the Hall of Fame. Gentry said he is going to frame the tie and the lottery balls, and hang it in the Pelicans' practice facility.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26743404/what-happened-wildest-nba-lottery-ever-seen
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
2,701
around the way
His oRTG (accounting for shooting efficiency, turnovers, offensive rebounding) was 105 against a league average of 110. It should be noted that Tatum was 107 last season (he was at 111 last year).

Both of those pass the eye test to me. The big difference is that anyone holding Tatum would/should expect more improvement given the ~3 year age difference.
And Tatum like covers guys.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,130
Ben Simmons was untradeable for AD from Philly’s perspective. He only has one year of his rookie deal left, and is obviously not nearly the player AD.
Do you mean Philly wouldn’t make the deal or New Orleans wouldn’t? I think it makes sense for both teams, and Simmons might be the best singular piece that NO could get (though I’m not sure Philly can trump Boston’s overall package).
 

Marbleheader

Dope
Dope
Sep 27, 2004
10,225
I think many of you will be surprised at the return for Davis, it's not going to be as much as some people are speculating.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
3,878
Lisbon, PT
Do you mean Philly wouldn’t make the deal or New Orleans wouldn’t? I think it makes sense for both teams, and Simmons might be the best singular piece that NO could get (though I’m not sure Philly can trump Boston’s overall package).
Philly wouldn’t. If they had offered Simmons at the deadline, the deal would have gotten done. Maybe this year’s playoff disappointment makes them go all in though.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,155
Santa Monica
Let's hypothetically say that Kyrie's return stunted the growth of Brown and Tatum. There seems to be enough NBA commentators that believe that, that there may be truth in it. Let's suppose that it is. Let's further suppose that Kyrie is gone and and AD deal doesn't happen with Boston. And let's also say that Rozier and Morris leave. So that leaves the Celtics with:

G - Wanamaker, Smart, Brown
F - Tatum, Hayward, Ojeleye, Williams, Yabu
C - Horford, Theis, Baynes

Plus three first round picks in this upcoming draft. You'd have to say they need to acquire a veteran point guard. But the real question I want to ask is: if Kyrie stunted Tatum and Brown's growth, without him, and with the two of them probably in line to be the leading scorers on the team, how much development might we see from them in 2019-20 if Kyrie isn't on the team? Enough to make them two all-star type players (even if they don't make the actual all-star roster)? Might this team, if they get to that level, be good enough to cause some havoc in the Eastern Conference playoffs?
It will suck if Kyrie walks and there is no KI/AD led team, BUT your scenario is not a bad Plan B. IF Tatum/Brown become those players, I trust Danny & Co to make that Memphis pick into something that makes the Celtics championship caliber in 2021. Draft PJ Washington, Goga, Thybulle, Konate. Sign Beverly & Dedmon. Let Brad take back this team and I think they cause havoc next season.