Pick one, closer or RH slugger

Bread of Yaz

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and a lot of pretty good options too. Scott, Hoffman (may want to start) Yates, Estevez, Robertson, Minter, Finnegan, etc… I think they’ll still add, and waiting for prices or years to come down is not a bad thing at all, as bullpen arms are traditionally volatile from year to year. They obviously aren’t the only team playing the long game here. With Hendricks, Slaten, Chapman, Whitlock, Wink, Guerrero, Wesseirt, Wilson, Bernardino, Kelly, and maybe Crawford or Criswell, they look to have decent depth going into ST. 1 more good arm never hurts. And I probably missed a guy or two in both my lists….
A report this afternoon on Rotoworld that he's seeking/expecting $20M a year
He is. As is Martin.
Just signed with TX
 

TheDogMan

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I advocate for Santander, only costs money and the Sox are far from the tax threshold. Make him DH for 4 years or so then transition Devers there long term. Jettison Yoshida. Of course as I previously stated I think the shutdown closer is the most important addition. He also can give Tristan a blow every couple of weeks and be the 5th outfielder.
 

Devizier

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In the abstract, the slugger, every day and all day. But the Sox’ needs and the market dictate closet right now. I don’t think they’ll get a lot of “total” value from a signing but the value of a marginal win could be huge when the playoffs are considered.
 

joe dokes

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Any takeaways there?
Big picture (no matter the type of contact)....RHH pulling in Fenway had the highest numbers of RHHs pulling anywhere, but the Sox lagged in RHH appearances at Fenway.
Seems to push back against the idea that it's "guys who can't hit lefties," but it's at least as much as "just plain old RHH pull-hitters).
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Big picture (no matter the type of contact)....RHH pulling in Fenway had the highest numbers of RHHs pulling anywhere, but the Sox lagged in RHH appearances at Fenway.
Seems to push back against the idea that it's "guys who can't hit lefties," but it's at least as much as "just plain old RHH pull-hitters).
Depending on how strictly pull is defined, I'd imagine pull lefties do very well at Fenway also, as do opposite-field lefties.
 

The Gray Eagle

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That article has some interesting info.

Hitting at Fenway is a huge opportunity for RH hitters, the best in baseball.
The most reliable way to generate offense is to have a righthanded hitter pull a fly ball at Fenway. Last year, doing so produced a mind-blowing .643 batting average and 2.147 slugging mark.
In 2024, there were 131 pulled fly balls by righties at Fenway. Those resulted in 57 homers and 23 doubles (along with three singles) — meaning an incredible 61 percent of pulled fly balls by righties at Fenway resulted in extra-base hits, and 44 percent cleared the Monster.
The Red Sox didn't take advantage of it.
And yet the Red Sox were strikingly ill-equipped to take advantage of their own park in 2024. The Sox had just 59 pulled fly balls from righthanded hitters at Fenway last year, fourth fewest in the big leagues — far from a shock, given that righties accounted for just 42 percent of their home plate appearances.
Among the 30 big league teams, the Sox had the third-lowest percentage of home plate appearances go to righthanded hitters last year. The 42 percent mark represented the second-lowest allotment to righthanded hitters at Fenway Park in team history, trailing only the 2011 team’s 40 percent.
That definitely contributed to the horrible home record, which basically ruined the season.

The Sox were 43-38 on the road, but just 38-43 at home — tied for the third worst home record in the American League. Offense clearly played a significant role, as the Sox scored 4.52 runs per game at home, compared with 4.75 on the road.
Obviously, the absence of Trevor Story played a meaningful role. Still, the Sox had only three righthanded hitters — Tyler O’Neill (16), Ceddanne Rafaela (14), and Connor Wong (14) — who hit at least five fly balls to left in Fenway Park.
It's quite the contrast with the Astros, who have a ballpark that also helps RH batters:
It’s worth noting the contrast between the Red Sox’ distribution of at-bats and that of the Astros, the team that plays in the home that comes closest to Fenway in terms of amplifying the production of righties thanks to their Crawford Boxes in left field at Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid Park).
Righties hit .568 and slugged 1.955 on pulled fly balls in Houston last year. The Astros (who went 46-35 at home, the third-best home record in the AL) took advantage of that by entrusting 66 percent of their home plate appearances to righties. This offseason, when facing the prospect of losing Alex Bregman to free agency, the Astros traded for Isaac Paredes — who ranked second among righthanded hitters with 69 pulled fly balls last year, underscoring the way they build their lineup for their ballpark.
The Red Sox know this, and it's part of why they are interested in Arenado and Bregman:
The two most prominent righthanded hitters on the market are Bregman and Nolan Arenado, whom the Cardinals are open to dealing with three years and $74 million left on his contract. Arenado’s 45 pulled fly balls ranked 10th among righthanded hitters, and his rate of pulling fly balls in 7.1 percent of his plate appearances was in the 85th percentile for righthanded hitters. Bregman’s 40 pulled fly balls were tied for 14th, while his 6.3 percent pulled fly ball rate ranked in the 77th percentile. Both have a track record that suggests an ability to thrive in a park that rewards that approach.
Switch-hitter Anthony Santander would benefit from Fenway as a righthanded hitter, but since the majority of his at-bats are as a lefty, Fenway’s impact on his offense likely would be negative. Jurickson Profar is likewise a switch-hitter, but given that he’s an all-fields hitter from both sides, he’d likely realize some marginal benefit from playing in Fenway.
Other less-prominent free agents include old friend Adam Duvall (96th percentile among righties in rate of pulled fly balls per plate appearance), as well as Randal Grichuk and Ha-Seong Kim, both of whom pull fly balls at roughly the same rate as Bregman.
I hope they are at least considering Kim, but the obvious issue with him is his injury, which will cost him a couple months of the season at least. But with his defense, speed, and versatility, he could really help after he gets healthy. I'd much rather add him than take on the years and salaries of Bregman and Arenado, even though both have more power.

They were willing to sign Sandoval, who will also miss a lot of this season, so I am hoping they are considering a similar offer to Kim. He'd surely prefer a guaranteed starting job somewhere, but I don't see how he could get that, since he will be missing the first couple months of the season.
 

Fishy1

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They're adding at least three right-handed hitters to the lineup next year between Story, Grissom, and Campbell.

If their evaluation is that those players are going to be healthy and effective, than that more than addresses the RH hitting problem.

If the Sox don't think they will, they'll need to go shopping. It's about as simple as that.
 

BaseballJones

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The Sox had a perfectly cromulent RH power bat that they simply let walk. Now they’re trying to get another guy basically just like him.
 

jon abbey

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The Sox had a perfectly cromulent RH power bat that they simply let walk. Now they’re trying to get another guy basically just like him.
The fan base is anyway, not so sure about the actual front office.
 

Cassvt2023

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I'm talking myself into Profar if they can get him on a 2/yr 26m deal with a mutual option based on incentives hit. He is a switch hitter, which is nice to have, with pretty equal career splits. He could be insurance to get DH at bats early if Yoshida isn't quite ready. He could play some LF, sliding Duran over to CF on some days against a tough SP to keep Rafaela as a late inning defensive replacement. And he is supposedly a great clubhouse guy, who'd be a nice influence on younger guys, especially felloow countryman CR. He'd be there so if one or both of Campbell and Anthony start in AAA.
 

Fishy1

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The fan base is anyway, not so sure about the actual front office.
Yeah, O'Neill was fun. But he only played 113 games, the second most of his career, and the highest number he'd played in three years. I don't want him heading into his 30s.

The likeliest thing now is they acquire a reliever and roll with everything else they've got, unless a really favorable deal emerges to acquire a catcher. Yoshida has little to no trade value post-labrum surgery, so he's not going anywhere, and they've got two really good prospects ready to compete for second base (and David Hamilton), and Ceddanne ready in case Story or Anthony falter, and prospects in The Password and Mayer who will be hitting AAA soon.

This teams bullpen was awful last year. Shore that up with an elite reliever and you have a team that should win 85-90 games, IMO.
 

Cassvt2023

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Yeah, O'Neill was fun. But he only played 113 games, the second most of his career, and the highest number he'd played in three years. I don't want him heading into his 30s.

The likeliest thing now is they acquire a reliever and roll with everything else they've got, unless a really favorable deal emerges to acquire a catcher. Yoshida has little to no trade value post-labrum surgery, so he's not going anywhere, and they've got two really good prospects ready to compete for second base (and David Hamilton), and Ceddanne ready in case Story or Anthony falter, and prospects in The Password and Mayer who will be hitting AAA soon.

This teams bullpen was awful last year. Shore that up with an elite reliever and you have a team that should win 85-90 games, IMO.
Yes O'Neil was fun, but those 31 HR ring sort of hollow, as so many of them were 440 foot solo shots, which don't necessarily help you win games. The good news on the reliever front is there are still several good options out there. It seems like many teams, not jut the Sox are waiting until the years and/or dollars come down. I trust Breslow to have a good handle on relief pitching.
 

jon abbey

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Yes O'Neil was fun, but those 31 HR ring sort of hollow, as so many of them were 440 foot solo shots, which don't necessarily help you win games.
He had a 1.281 OPS in 'late and close' situations (71 PAs) and an .866 OPS with RISP (107 PAs).
 

Fishy1

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Yes O'Neil was fun, but those 31 HR ring sort of hollow, as so many of them were 440 foot solo shots, which don't necessarily help you win games. The good news on the reliever front is there are still several good options out there. It seems like many teams, not jut the Sox are waiting until the years and/or dollars come down. I trust Breslow to have a good handle on relief pitching.
That's mostly a luck thing, I think. He can't control whether the guys in front of him got on base.
 

Cassvt2023

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He had a 1.281 OPS in 'late and close' situations (71 PAs) and an .866 OPS with RISP (107 PAs).
Fair enough, I know you always do your research thoroughly. But only 18 2B in that park with 61 RBI from 31 HR ain't a lot. And I watched almost every game and i think i remember almost all of those 159 K's which this team should be trying to reduce. I know #'s are what they are, but they don't always tell the whole story.

edit: It's a bit telling, and maybe a mistake in hindsight that they didn't QO him.
 

joe dokes

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That's mostly a luck thing, I think. He can't control whether the guys in front of him got on base.
I come not to denigrate O'Neil c.2024, despite the slipping defense and nagging injury absences. He was a force.
But I do think it's reasonable to question whether he'll do it again. I don't think it's likely.
 

LogansDad

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The Sox had a perfectly cromulent RH power bat that they simply let walk. Now they’re trying to get another guy basically just like him.
Assuming you mean Bregman or Arenado, they aren't really that much like him.

94497

94498

Not that I am advocating for long term deals for either of them, but they are far superior hitters to O'Neill, IMHO.
 

Fishy1

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Fair enough, I know you always do your research thoroughly. But only 18 2B in that park with 61 RBI from 31 HR ain't a lot. And I watched almost every game and i think i remember almost all of those 159 K's which this team should be trying to reduce. I know #'s are what they are, but they don't always tell the whole story.

edit: It's a bit telling, and maybe a mistake in hindsight that they didn't QO him.
I think they didn't feel comfortable QO'ing both of them because if both had accepted it would have constricted their budget considerably. Just a guess.
 

Cassvt2023

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I think they didn't feel comfortable QO'ing both of them because if both had accepted it would have constricted their budget considerably. Just a guess.
I get this, but with all the information they have at their disposal, they should be able to make a very, very educated guess it what those 2 guys market would be. Especially Boras repping TO, i don't think he was going to settle for a 1 yr deal. And with Pivetta, look how valuable a league average, durable, SP with his stuff is. Buehler basically got Pivetta's $$.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Breslow says specifically mentioned the ballpark factor when talking about adding a right handed bat.

The only problem with Arenado though is that, while it might make him a better hitter, this is so much wood to chop on his quality of contact in just can’t envision him being a middle of the order bat at this stage of his career.
 

TapeAndPosts

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Man, all I know is, 2024 Tyler O'Neill was my son's favorite Red Sox player, and now for like the fourth season in a row, he's going to have to find a new favorite Red Sox player.
 

kazuneko

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Assuming you mean Bregman or Arenado, they aren't really that much like him.

View attachment 94497

View attachment 94498

Not that I am advocating for long term deals for either of them, but they are far superior hitters to O'Neill, IMHO.
What this overlooks is that while two of these hitters are clearly in decline, one is both significantly younger and coming off one of his best seasons. It’s not what they’ve done in the last three years but what they’ll produce in the next three.
Obviously injuries are a big concern for O’Neil, but if he stays healthy he’s an easy bet to outhit Arenado and probably even Bregman.
 

LogansDad

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What this overlooks is that while two of these hitters are clearly in decline, one is both significantly younger and coming off one of his best seasons. It’s not what they’ve done in the last three years but what they’ll produce in the next three.
Obviously injuries are a big concern for O’Neil, but if he stays healthy he’s an easy bet to outhit Arenado and probably even Bregman.
I guess. I like O'Neill, but a 33% strikeout rate is really, really bad, and strikeouts were probably the biggest issue with the Red Sox offense in 2024. It doesn't surprise me that they would target players who strikeout less than half the amount that TON does.

Again, I do not endorse trading for Arenado, nor signing Bregman to a 5 year deal, but this team absolutely has to cut down on the strikeouts this year.
 

kazuneko

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I guess. I like O'Neill, but a 33% strikeout rate is really, really bad, and strikeouts were probably the biggest issue with the Red Sox offense in 2024. It doesn't surprise me that they would target players who strikeout less than half the amount that TON does.

Again, I do not endorse trading for Arenado, nor signing Bregman to a 5 year deal, but this team absolutely has to cut down on the strikeouts this year.
But there are also serious concerns with both Bregman and Arenado’s hitting that suggest age related decline. I don’t see either of them being great hitters going forward and I’d be concerned that Arenado could be subpar as soon as next year.
 

joe dokes

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But there are also serious concerns with both Bregman and Arenado’s hitting that suggest age related decline. I don’t see either of them being great hitters going forward and I’d be concerned that Arenado could be subpar as soon as next year.
I agree, which is why i'll be ok if none of the three are with the sox in 25. And i'll hope for the best if they are.
 

TheDogMan

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I come not to denigrate O'Neil c.2024, despite the slipping defense and nagging injury absences. He was a force.
But I do think it's reasonable to question whether he'll do it again. I don't think it's likely.
In Baltimore he will play 81 games in a very unfriendly hitters pRk for rh pull hitters.
 

simplicio

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The assumption that TO gets anything like his current deal through a qualifying offer is a stretch IMO. He's a great guy to have come up to the plate against 1/4 of the pitching in the league, and everything he does outside of that is negative value. He's repeatedly demonstrated that he likely won't even be available to face that full quarter. If he still had a strong defensive floor that would be another matter but his fielding (and running) fell off.
In Baltimore he will play 81 games in a very unfriendly hitters pRk for rh pull hitters.
They're moving the LF wall back in this winter, splitting the difference between the old and new depths.