If you didn’t know who it was that sounds like Draymond coming out of Michigan St.So after all the moves, the Celtics end up with Jordan Walsh.
19 years old
6'6" tall
7'2" wingspan
8'11" standing reach
Played 1 year at Arkansas after being a McDonald's All American and consensus 5 star recruit.
Here is the Ringer writeup:
View attachment 66360
This doesn't read like a writeup of a guy who's eight picks deep in the second round. Feels like quite a Danny pick in terms of highly touted recruit with meh production.So after all the moves, the Celtics end up with Jordan Walsh.
19 years old
6'6" tall
7'2" wingspan
8'11" standing reach
Played 1 year at Arkansas after being a McDonald's All American and consensus 5 star recruit.
Here is the Ringer writeup:
View attachment 66360
It's pick 38, and some reports say he is an NBA caliber defender already. If he had an offnesive game he'd have been a mid first rounder."Major project on the offensive end" are the words that keep sticking in my mind. It's a little discouraging to see opponents leave him wide open because they have absolutely no respect for his three-point shot. But he's only 19 (and turns 20 in March), so we'll see how much shooting is an acquired skill.
Semi also shot like 40 pct from 3 in college on volume.It's pick 38, and some reports say he is an NBA caliber defender already. If he had an offnesive game he'd have been a mid first rounder.
This is just what you get in round 2.
We have gotten some useful NBA service out of a no-offense second round pick (Semi Ojeleye) in the recent past, and this guy seems like a much higher upside version of a defense first guy.
Semi went #37 in 2017 and, while out of the league now, is currently 26th in minutes played among players drafted in that class. He was also a 4 year college player so more of a finished project when the Celtics got him.
I think Jordan Walsh is the kind of player you want at #38, even though, like most second round picks, he probably won't amount to much.
According to this article - https://the-cauldron.com/the-2nd-round-and-misuse-of-probability-402639df1038 - which looked at 10 drafts from 2003-2013, approximately 74% of 2nd round picks make it to the NBA but only about 26% make it over 3 years.I think Jordan Walsh is the kind of player you want at #38, even though, like most second round picks, he probably won't amount to much.
2-way contracts and a currently full roster make this type of pick a lot more doable.Developing the shot is a big "if" but it's worth the risk and his age is an advantage over some other defense-first guys like Thybulle who was 22 on draft night. While that does mean coming in more physically ready, it's significantly less time to develop the areas that could take a player like that to another level. Three extra years of NBA coaching/workouts/etc. Maybe that means a little more time looking like a deer lost in the woods but it presents a path, basically the same one Avery Bradley—another big-time high school recruit—took.
These numbers have skyrocketed since 2013 with expanded rosters. The majority of those drafted in the top half of he second round usually get the same amount of rope that first-rounders used to receive.According to this article - https://the-cauldron.com/the-2nd-round-and-misuse-of-probability-402639df1038 - which looked at 10 drafts from 2003-2013, approximately 74% of 2nd round picks make it to the NBA but only about 26% make it over 3 years.
View attachment 66365
If you didn’t know who it was that sounds like Draymond coming out of Michigan St.
He admires his shot too much. Either follow it or get back on D, but don't stand there with your hand in the air like you're Steph Curry. Nitpick. I'm sure he'll learn.
Other than that, he plays a little wild. Looks like someone who can come in like a ball of energy, like a longer Grant, but needs to get it under control a little.
He's an elite athlete in a way Semi never was, he's 19 and was a McDonald's All American. His ceiling is very high, it's just unlikely he develops in all the ways he could offensively (which might make him... Mikal Bridges maybe?) but his reasonable ceiling is he develops his 3pt shot, the defense translates, he's a slimmer more athletic Grant who can run the break, maybe you get Desmond Bane type performance.Isn’t he more of a medium floor/low ceiling guy? Doesn’t seem like that much of a lottery ticket. He can play defense, and with some work on his shooting can be Semi. That’s what you hope for around 38.
That’s an interesting debate.This is why I wanted to go with Andre Jackson - who the Celtics obviously could have had. Elite athlete, great defender at multiple positions, really good ball handler and runner of an offense, incredible work ethic and character. The only thing missing is a shot, which may never come, but IF it got there, he has the ceiling of an all-star player. At minimum, he could right now provide defense and ball handling.
Absolutely. Brad had him in twice.Walsh isn't some flier he was a top prospect and elite athlete coming out of HS. He's going to have a chance to win some minutes as a rookie or 2nd year guy once we need to shed some bench salary.
Semi Ojeleye was Parade Magazine’s National Player of the Year in high school and tested freakishly at the combine.He's an elite athlete in a way Semi never was, he's 19 and was a McDonald's All American. His ceiling is very high, it's just unlikely he develops in all the ways he could offensively (which might make him... Mikal Bridges maybe?) but his reasonable ceiling is he develops his 3pt shot, the defense translates, he's a slimmer more athletic Grant who can run the break, maybe you get Desmond Bane type performance.
He has a much wider range of outcomes than guys like Semi who are older, less athletic and don't have the pedigree.
For combine, Walsh had significant edges in reach and wingspan, Jackson had a good edge in max vert, but Walsh had a clear edge in standing vert.That’s an interesting debate.
Jackson is two years older than Walsh and didn’t markedly improve from his sophomore to junior year. Jackson’s chances of developing a good-enough shot for an NBA wing are worse than Walsh’s. But Jackson clearly has the athleticism. I’m not so sure about Walsh — hopefully @absintheofmalaise is right about all those fouls being a product of inexperience, and not a sign that he’s going to be hopelessly overmatched against NBA talent.
If I were deciding between the two, I’d probably look at combine numbers. If Walsh had a 40-inch vertical, I’d bet on him figuring out how to defend over Jackson figuring out how to shoot. If Walsh’s measurables weren’t impressive, however, then yeah, I’d rather have Jackson.
Yeah, Semi's problem was never physical/athletic...it was on the skills side. He couldn't turn those things into (say) blocked shots/deflections or turn the size/speed into offensive moves.Semi Ojeleye was Parade Magazine’s National Player of the Year in high school and tested freakishly at the combine.
https://parade.com/15098/brianmclaughlin/semi-ojeleye-is-parades-2012-13-boys-basketball-player-of-the-year/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Semi-Ojeleye-7164/
You wrote that "about 26% make it over 3 years." But I could only find 19.1% based on the pie chart provided.According to this article - https://the-cauldron.com/the-2nd-round-and-misuse-of-probability-402639df1038 - which looked at 10 drafts from 2003-2013, approximately 74% of 2nd round picks make it to the NBA but only about 26% make it over 3 years.
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The guys who played 1 or 2 years. "Over three years" is not the same as "at least 3 years."You wrote that "about 26% make it over 3 years." But I could only find 19.1% based on the pie chart provided.
Played at least 3 year = 16.7%
All star/all NBA = 2.4%
Total = 19.1%
What did I miss?
I was thinking Dennis RodmanIf you didn’t know who it was that sounds like Draymond coming out of Michigan St.
Yep much less heralded like Rodman.I was thinking Dennis Rodman
If you count 2-way contracts as being in the NBA I'm right with you.These numbers have skyrocketed since 2013 with expanded rosters. The majority of those drafted in the top half of he second round usually get the same amount of rope that first-rounders used to receive.
Walsh isn't some flier he was a top prospect and elite athlete coming out of HS. He's going to have a chance to win some minutes as a rookie or 2nd year guy once we need to shed some bench salary.
It's not clear but I think author intended to add "One Season over .130 WS" to the players who made it over 3 years. If you read the article, the author says:You wrote that "about 26% make it over 3 years." But I could only find 19.1% based on the pie chart provided.
Played at least 3 year = 16.7%
All star/all NBA = 2.4%
Total = 19.1%
What did I miss?
I'm on a plane w spotty WiFI. BB-Ref should have something.If you count 2-way contracts as being in the NBA I'm right with you.
If you are saying that more second round picks are on NBA rosters for more than three years, you're probably correct given the expanded rosters but I'd be interested in seeing whether the increase is significant. I've not been able to find anything more recent than the one article I posted.
Rodman averaged 25 and 15 over three years in college (granted at a small school). Reading more of the reports, I do wonder why this guy didn't stay in school for another year to work on his offensive game and declare in a weak draft.Yep much less heralded like Rodman.
Yeah, I read he had a good combine. So he had good pedigree coming out of high school, was initially expected to go first round, then slipped after an unimpressive freshman season. Which could have been due to age or maybe he was playing in the wrong system for his skillset? I think there's a lot to like here -- with the understanding that we're a long way from him being a contributor. Plus, he's a young 19. Looking forward to Summer League!Speaking of combine, NBA.com picked him as one of seven standouts.
Entering the 2024 NBA Draft, Walsh’s nearly 7’2’’ wingspan is the second longest small forward prospect by a quarter inch and longer than a slew of post players. Despite measuring less than inch taller than Ricky Council IV, his wingspan is nearly 5 inches more. He also shot the ball better in the two shooting drills at the NBA Combine. His shot also passes the ey*e test.
Walsh tied with 6 other players for 5th place in the college corner three point shooting drill by hitting 68 percent of his shots. Council IV came in at 48 percent.
Interesting video but looks like he only goes right.
Rodman was famously unknown, not an athletic standout and literally homeless for a time until he grew 8 inches or whatever at age 19. Then he basically dominated in (a tiny) college. If he had his growth spurt earlier and had been recruited by big schools he probably would have been a top ten pick (if he didn't flunk out). I'm not sure I see the comparison.Yep much less heralded like Rodman.
I have no real clue what the backup guard plan is...So Brad Stevens has a type. No first rounders allowed. He likes high ceiling, very young former high school studs who for whatever reason didn’t show out in their one and done college apprenticeship. I like the JDD pick last season, and I like this pick. Do this six consecutive summers in a row, and at least one of them will make the rotation some day.
I might be delusional. but I think JJD is in their plans for back of the rotation minutes this season. Having a few disruptive players like JJD and Walsh running around for a few minutes a game in the regular season would be fun.
This is the correct take.Walsh's in-game athleticism doesn't really stand out, particularly in relation to NBA players. You just don't see the explosiveness that the top tier NBA athletes possess. He's also a terrible shooter, and was a terrible shooter in high school. He's certainly young enough to improve, but since the shot isn't broken or anything, it's hard to tell what will transform him into a good shooter.
I'd say his path to being an NBA player is the PJ Tucker/Grant Williams mold. High motor, pain in the ass to play against, physical, and switchable defensively. But right now he's a ways off from being able to shoot well enough to be playable. If the shot ever comes around, that's a great value pick. If it doesn't, he can go be Juhann Begarin 2.0 in Europe.
Danny had the same type (we've talked about this before).So Brad Stevens has a type. No first rounders allowed. He likes high ceiling, very young former high school studs who for whatever reason didn’t show out in their one and done college apprenticeship. I like the JDD pick last season, and I like this pick. Do this six consecutive summers in a row, and at least one of them will make the rotation some day.
I might be delusional. but I think JJD is in their plans for back of the rotation minutes this season. Having a few disruptive players like JJD and Walsh running around for a few minutes a game in the regular season would be fun.
I think Walsh's athleticism is more than explosiveness. On defense, his feet move really well and it looks like he has super quick hands. That combined with his wingspan and his motor should make him into a great defender (if he ever sees the floor).Walsh's in-game athleticism doesn't really stand out, particularly in relation to NBA players. You just don't see the explosiveness that the top tier NBA athletes possess.