Petey chasing a mirage?

Aug 11, 2019
387
Lemme guess, you’re someone who plays a lot of fantasy baseball, right?
Never.

Just pointed out that he has missed a number of games during his career, so perhaps his value wasn't quite what some people think it was. Sure, he had an OPS+ of 106 in his last six seasons but also only played in 51% of the Red Sox games during that period and a few of them weren't starts. So that essentially leaves three choices: the substitutes played worse than he did, which means his missing half the games hurt the team; they played equal to his performance, which means that it doesn't make much difference except possibly salary; or they played better than he did. Take your pick.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Never.

Just pointed out that he has missed a number of games during his career, so perhaps his value wasn't quite what some people think it was. Sure, he had an OPS+ of 106 in his last six seasons but also only played in 51% of the Red Sox games during that period and a few of them weren't starts. So that essentially leaves three choices: the substitutes played worse than he did, which means his missing half the games hurt the team; they played equal to his performance, which means that it doesn't make much difference except possibly salary; or they played better than he did. Take your pick.
Those aren't really choices to "pick" from. He had a horrible injury that cost him nearly 100% of games the past two years. The prior 4 years have nearly nothing to do with that.
 
Aug 11, 2019
387
Those aren't really choices to "pick" from. He had a horrible injury that cost him nearly 100% of games the past two years. The prior 4 years have nearly nothing to do with that.
In 2014 he missed 27 games (which included the final 18 games of the regular season--fortunately the club did not go into post-season)
In 2015 he missed 69 games
In 2016 he missed 10 games (basically normal for today)
In 2017 he missed 57 games
 

absintheofmalaise

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In 2014 he missed 27 games (which included the final 18 games of the regular season--fortunately the club did not go into post-season)
In 2015 he missed 69 games
In 2016 he missed 10 games (basically normal for today)
In 2017 he missed 57 games
Since you're the one who brought this subject up in this thread, and to save everyone else from having to do the work, could you refresh our memories about the circumstances about why he missed more than the normal amount of games in those seasons? No reason to include 2016.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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In 2014 he missed 27 games (which included the final 18 games of the regular season--fortunately the club did not go into post-season)
In 2015 he missed 69 games
In 2016 he missed 10 games (basically normal for today)
In 2017 he missed 57 games
2014: thumb surgery in September, scheduled in part because the team was out of it
2015: hamstring injury (2 seperate DL trips)
2016: no injuries, had knee surgery in the off season
2017: sprained left wrist, knee inflammation (3 separate DL trips, two for the knee)

Edit: sorry abs, was looking this up while you posted.
 

chrisfont9

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In his 14-year career, he has only played in 150+ games five times. Overall, he has averaged playing in two-thirds of the games. Even if one omits his last two seasons, he has only averaged playing in 77.3% of the games. Back when they extended his contract, I felt he was the type of player whose performance would drop suddenly as he aged and that a trade would have been a better move.
Is making 77% of your starts a bad number? Also, you seem to be arguing that he hasn't aged well. He has had one very specific incident which has undermined what was otherwise a career going strong into his 30s. If he fixes that one specific problem, it's probably more reasonable to assume that he'll perform close to his old self than not. People often like to talk about athletes who "get injured a lot" when often times it's really only true that he "got injured," which has zero predictive value about whether he will get injured again. Sure, everyone picks up a few knocks here and there, but I think we have to wait on his knee and see what happens.
 

joe dokes

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Is making 77% of your starts a bad number? Also, you seem to be arguing that he hasn't aged well. He has had one very specific incident which has undermined what was otherwise a career going strong into his 30s. If he fixes that one specific problem, it's probably more reasonable to assume that he'll perform close to his old self than not. People often like to talk about athletes who "get injured a lot" when often times it's really only true that he "got injured," which has zero predictive value about whether he will get injured again. Sure, everyone picks up a few knocks here and there, but I think we have to wait on his knee and see what happens.
For some context, 77% is 125 games. That would have been 7th most among MLB 2Bmen in 2019.
 
Aug 11, 2019
387
Is making 77% of your starts a bad number? Also, you seem to be arguing that he hasn't aged well. He has had one very specific incident which has undermined what was otherwise a career going strong into his 30s
Ted Williams only appeared in 76.5% of Red Sox games after he returned from the Korean War but he managed OPS+ of 201, 209, 172, 233, 179, 114, 190.

The hell with it; love Pedroia.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Ted Williams only appeared in 76.5% of Red Sox games after he returned from the Korean War but he managed OPS+ of 201, 209, 172, 233, 179, 114, 190.
Wait, so you're saying Ted Williams was a better player than Dustin Pedroia?

Seriously, though, I do see two caveats to chrisfont9's point that "it's probably more reasonable to assume that he'll perform close to his old self than not" if he can manage this improbable comeback.

One is that it's inherently overoptimistic to expect a 36-year-old to match his performance level from several years before. This is true even when said 36-year-old is not coming off a two-year layoff due to a serious injury.

The other is that when we talk about "his old self" we may be talking about two different people. One is peak Pedroia, ages 24-27, who put up a 122 OPS+ while averaging 20 steals a year at an 80%+ success rate. He was a legitimately outstanding offensive player. The other is post-peak Pedroia, ages 28-33, with a 110 OPS+ and half the steals at a lower success rate. Still a clearly above-average hitter, but with much less power and slightly less eye-popping discipline/contact skills.

What I think would be a realistic expectation (if anything regarding a Pedroia comeback can be called realistic) for his bat would be a considerably lesser version of that post-peak guy, reflecting his age and two years off. We can also expect his defense to be diminished. He'll never not be a skilled second baseman, but we have to assume his mobility will be sharply curtailed. Likewise on the basepaths.

So basically I think we're talking about a guy with something like a .280/.340/.380 slash line, station-to-station baserunning, and defense that's competent but limited in range. And I think that's the upside.
 
Aug 11, 2019
387
So basically I think we're talking about a guy with something like a .280/.340/.380 slash line, station-to-station baserunning, and defense that's competent but limited in range. And I think that's the upside.
In 2019, MLB second basemen had a slash line of .256/.320/.417 according to bb-ref's splits; Red Sox 2B's had a .249/.303/.358 slash line in 2019 and .252/.308/.350 in 2018. so your predicted-Pedroia would be an improvement. The question is, how much can he come back? Do they keep Brock Holt as insurance or do they gamble that they will get a lot of playing time from Pedroia?

Wait, so you're saying Ted Williams was a better player than Dustin Pedroia?
We all know the answer to that. The thing is that Williams had injuries during the latter part of his career that prevented him from playing more than about 3/4-ths of the time, yet he still put up some heavy numbers. In 1950, he had 25 HR and 83 RBI after 70 games, then broke his elbow making a catch in the All-Star Game. He came back in September but didn't do all that well and it still bothered him the next season. Then he missed almost the entire 1952 and 1953 seasons to the Korean War. but came back in 1954 at age 35 to put up a 201 OPS+, playing in a bit over 75% of the games. Pedroia has got a bit to do to equal that relative to his own career,
 

shaggydog2000

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I think we're making a pretty big deal out of a tossed off line that somebody said just because Ol' Dusty Two-sacks contract requires him to at least pretend to try to come back, and the Sox have to pretend that they want him to try. It ain't happening. And he's not retiring, for money reasons (as he shouldn't and as we've discussed before).
 

Van Everyman

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For those reasons I wonder if there comes a point when they do a 100% buyout to let the guy move on with his life and stop with the charade of trying to get him healthy.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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For those reasons I wonder if there comes a point when they do a 100% buyout to let the guy move on with his life and stop with the charade of trying to get him healthy.
I'm willing to bet they'd be amenable to that as soon as Pedroia expresses an interest in doing so.

I think it's disingenuous to portray Pedroia's coming back as out of contractual obligation rather than a genuine desire on his part to continue to play professional baseball. We have zero reason to believe the Red Sox are pressuring him to come back or demanding that he come back against his will or better judgement.
 

chrisfont9

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Wait, so you're saying Ted Williams was a better player than Dustin Pedroia?

Seriously, though, I do see two caveats to chrisfont9's point that "it's probably more reasonable to assume that he'll perform close to his old self than not" if he can manage this improbable comeback.

One is that it's inherently overoptimistic to expect a 36-year-old to match his performance level from several years before. This is true even when said 36-year-old is not coming off a two-year layoff due to a serious injury.

The other is that when we talk about "his old self" we may be talking about two different people. One is peak Pedroia, ages 24-27, who put up a 122 OPS+ while averaging 20 steals a year at an 80%+ success rate. He was a legitimately outstanding offensive player. The other is post-peak Pedroia, ages 28-33, with a 110 OPS+ and half the steals at a lower success rate. Still a clearly above-average hitter, but with much less power and slightly less eye-popping discipline/contact skills.

What I think would be a realistic expectation (if anything regarding a Pedroia comeback can be called realistic) for his bat would be a considerably lesser version of that post-peak guy, reflecting his age and two years off. We can also expect his defense to be diminished. He'll never not be a skilled second baseman, but we have to assume his mobility will be sharply curtailed. Likewise on the basepaths.

So basically I think we're talking about a guy with something like a .280/.340/.380 slash line, station-to-station baserunning, and defense that's competent but limited in range. And I think that's the upside.
Sounds good. I definitely didn't mean peak early Pedroia, more like the guy he was when last healthy. If the injury is completely resolved, why wouldn't he pick up where he left off? Some rust, of course, but 36 isn't much different from 33, and everyone is completely different, so who knows? If anything, he won't have aged like most players over those years because he's spent two seasons not throwing his body around.

But, that's all assuming his knee starts working well again. I'm definitely NOT assuming that. He may feel reluctant to go all out, or he may say "it's fine" but it's not quite the same. And there are far more scenarios where the knee is never fixed.

So I guess I meant to say that his ceiling is his age 33 season-type production, and we shouldn't just assume he can't meet that, based on what we know, simply because of his recent injury history. If the knee is fine, I wouldn't assume other injuries happen or that his skills have decayed -- based on what we know. But his floor is low and the chances of him coming back at full strength are, oh, dubious? Maybe but not something I'd bet on?
 

chrisfont9

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For those reasons I wonder if there comes a point when they do a 100% buyout to let the guy move on with his life and stop with the charade of trying to get him healthy.
What does that look like? Usually deferring payouts is valuable (time-value of money etc etc), and the amount counting toward the LT can't be changed (barring a trade that 100% isn't happening). Do teams offer like 85 cents on the dollar to pay off up front? Also are these contracts insured? Do they cash in on the policy and then pay out a guy?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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What does that look like? Usually deferring payouts is valuable (time-value of money etc etc), and the amount counting toward the LT can't be changed (barring a trade that 100% isn't happening). Do teams offer like 85 cents on the dollar to pay off up front? Also are these contracts insured? Do they cash in on the policy and then pay out a guy?
David Wright's buyout is a reasonable example of what it could look like. With two years left on his contract, he negotiated deferments of a portion of his 2019 salary ($6M) to be paid out, with interest, in 2021, 2022, and 2023. He was owed a total of $27M (real dollars, not AAV) and, based on previous years, it's assumed that insurance would cover 75% of it. Coincidentally or not, the 25% not covered comes out too...$6.75M.

I seem to recall something about Henry being reticent to do contract insurance, but that might have been regarding specific players. But because of that, I suspect there's no insurance for Pedroia's deal. So I suspect if they deferred money, it would be for a bigger chunk of his remaining salary than 25%. Maybe more along the lines of the Bonilla deal...deferred payments spread out over a longer period of time.

I can't see any reason Pedroia would do an upfront buyout at a discount. He has every right to collect every penny owed to him, even if he's sitting on the IL while doing it.
 

lexrageorge

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For those reasons I wonder if there comes a point when they do a 100% buyout to let the guy move on with his life and stop with the charade of trying to get him healthy.
I don't think anyone considers the current situation a burden on Pedroia. Until that changes, nothing will change on this front.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I think Pedey will continue to try to come back until his body tells him its impossible, or his doctor tells him that he's putting his future mobility at serious risk by continuing to try. And it doesn't seem like his doctor has told him that. From what I understand of the interview, he basically said his doctor was surprised at how well his recovery is going. And Pedey also says that he knows that he will need a knee replacement at some point, so maybe the doctor has told him that whatever happens now, in terms of additional damage, will be addressed whenever he gets that knee replacement. I'm not a doctor, so just speculating here. But it sure doesn't sound like Pedey has been told by his doctor that he shouldn't do this.

It seems like a long shot, but frankly none of us are in a position to judge whether this is possible, or what the chances are. But I'm sure the red Sox have seem the medicals, and can make a more informed judgment. I seriously doubt they're counting on him to start 140 games, but they could be at least hoping that he'll be able to make some meaningful contribution next year.
 

SeanBerry

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I think Pedey will continue to try to come back until his body tells him its impossible, or his doctor tells him that he's putting his future mobility at serious risk by continuing to try.
I think he'll keep trying to come back until the contract runs out and he is no longer getting paid to try to come back.

That sounds like a slam on Pedoria or I'm painting him with a greedy brush but I'm really not. He'll fulfill his obligation of trying to play baseball again until he's no longer getting paid to do so.
 

SeanBerry

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One more quick note:

It seems like some people here really bought into the whole idolatry of Dustin Pedroia when he was still a great player.

"He lives near the ballpark! He loves the game! He plays cribbage!"

But what sportswriters and propaganda machine NESN leave out is:

"He fucks his wife! He has other hobbies! He takes dumps!"

In other words, he's a human being.

I know that sports (especially baseball) lends itself to worshipping these players but as adults, we really should do a better job of looking at these guys with a more mature lense. Why are you asking them to do things you wouldn't? And spare me on the whole "I'd play second base for the Red Sox for free! Hell, I'd pay them!" garbage because you wouldn't. You'd want to get paid money to do a job. And you'd do the job the best you could. Probably like the one you have now.

These are men doing a job. Stop asking them to take less money. Stop thinking of them as heroes and start looking at them as union guys. Because that's what they are.
 

mauidano

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Pretty simple really; he is under contract to the Red Sox. He will do everything he possibly can to fulfill that contract. He is most definitely entitled to do so. He will not leave money on the table and walk away from it all.

I wish him nothing but the best and don't underestimate him.
 

Plympton91

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I keep thinking back to the great Grady Sizemore experiment. That is likely how this goes. Even if Pedroia manages to get into playing shape for next March, he’ll be a shell of himself even at age 33, and he will either need lots of days off or break down regularly.

as much as I hate to say it, they should just release him, let him collect his money, and move on with the 40-man roster spot and a real plan for 2nd base next season.
 

Coachster

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What are the comps for someone of his age (36) coming back from knee surgery and (essentially) two missed years?
I keep thinking back to the great Grady Sizemore experiment.
I was thinking Sizemore is the perfect comp. He was 31, and hadn’t played for 3 years when the Sox signed him. He was awful for us, slightly better for Philly, and actually had half of a league average season for the Rays in 2015. (Which I have absolutely no memory of. )
 

lexrageorge

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I keep thinking back to the great Grady Sizemore experiment. That is likely how this goes. Even if Pedroia manages to get into playing shape for next March, he’ll be a shell of himself even at age 33, and he will either need lots of days off or break down regularly.

as much as I hate to say it, they should just release him, let him collect his money, and move on with the 40-man roster spot and a real plan for 2nd base next season.
I believe they have 36 players on the 40-man, so his occupancy on the roster isn't causing them any problems.

The right thing for them to do is to assume he will not be back in 2020; if a full time 2B drops from the sky and lands in Fort Myers, even better. Meanwhile, they can let him rehab under the watch of the team's medical and training staff. In the unlikely event he gets to the point he is able to see the field in 2020, they can figure out what to do at that time.

There is a time to DFA him. However, doing it while he's making an earnest attempt at a comeback when the roster spot is open anyways is not the time.
 

DBHenders

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Jun 10, 2019
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This is unfortunately another of those dark sides of baseball reality. I think we pretty much all respect Petey for the grit and determination he brought to the games. He is a Red Sox icon... But his make-up is to never say quit - which is noble in some sense... But the business side of the reality is why would he retire and leave that chunk of guaranteed money on the table? He is owed $25 million in base pay the next two years - and as much as he loves the game I suspect he has $25 million reasons to want to be seen as trying to honor his contract. Altruism - taking one for the team - whatever you want to call it has something on the other side of the balancing scale. This isn't like the aged veteran trying to earn a contract for one more grasp at the brass ring... Which is the sad part of this... Pedroia is in many ways in a no win situation... If he stays, IMO, he ends up damaging the team he loves and has given his all for... If he calls it a career, he forfeits a good chunk of money any one of us on SOSH would pretty much crawl through razor sharp almost molten spikes to try and grab... Truly between Scylla and Charybdis I am afraid...
 

NomarsFool

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No offense to him, but I really doubt it's a difficult decision for him at all. These guys sign contracts to play. If they overperform their contracts, the team gets that benefit If they underperform their contracts, the players get that benefit. I obviously don't know him at all, but these guys have it drilled into them that they deserve every penny of their contracts, no matter what their performance is. I really don't think he'd even consider giving up that money "for the team" - which really isn't true at all, in the end. It's John Henry and his partners' money. If he gave every cent of it back, there's no guarantee it would help the team one iota.
 
Aug 11, 2019
387
If you face reality, he's going to collect the remainder of his salary but they can put him on the 60-day injured list, which means he won't count as part of their active roster or their 40-man roster. They can't put him on the 60-day list until the team's 40-man roster is full, though (that is, unless I've missed a rules change).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If you face reality, he's going to collect the remainder of his salary but they can put him on the 60-day injured list, which means he won't count as part of their active roster or their 40-man roster. They can't put him on the 60-day list until the team's 40-man roster is full, though (that is, unless I've missed a rules change).
That is true. The only time his presence is an issue in terms of roster construction is during the off-season when the 60-day IL doesn't exist. They have to carry him on the 40-man through the winter. Given the flotsam on the roster presently, I don't think Pedroia is going to be the barrier to protecting a particular player from the Rule 5 draft or signing an important free agent. And if he is, and they're convinced he can't play, there's nothing stopping them from releasing him. His contract is a sunk cost regardless. He doesn't need to be on the roster at all for him to get every dime of his salary.
 

InstaFace

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Lemme guess, you’re someone who plays a lot of fantasy baseball, right?
what point are you trying to make with this post?

stepson, unless I'm confusing him with someone, has talked about attending baseball games in the 1950s. Dude can enjoy baseball however he likes. And while you're free to disagree with it (and I do), he makes a cogent point about reasonable forecasts for Pedroia's contract.
 

NomarsFool

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Did anyone see that the Yankees are floating the idea of trying to not pay Jacoby Ellsbury his full salary (Gosh, had no idea he was owed $26 million) next season?

I think it is just a trial balloon, but the idea was that because he sought medical treatment/rehab from outside the Yankees organization they could try and withhold some of his salary.

I'd like to say that if they do that, no free agents would sign with the Yankees anymore. But, I actually don't think that's true.
 
Aug 11, 2019
387
According to MLB Trade Rumors the Yankees are planning not to cut any checks for Ellsbury in 2020 ("the team believes that Ellsbury acted inappropriately for multiple years."), leaving it up to Boras to pursue a grievance action. "No doubt the league, union, and Yankees’ insurer will have major roles to play in this as well."
 

lexrageorge

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My guess is that Ellsbury's actions were fairly egregious if they are threatening to withhold payment. Relevant to this thread, Pedroia was well liked and respected by both teammates and opponents. I'm not sure Ellsbury has the same level of goodwill banked in reserve, so future free agents probably don't care. Also, NY can get away with more than the Marlins.
 

Patek's 3 Dingers

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What does Ellsbury's situation have to do with Pedroia, though? Is there any reason to think Pedroia has acted in a way that would leave him open to a similar gambit, or that the Sox would pursue it if he had?
In regard to your second question - absolutely not. I have no doubt that Pedroia has done everything he possibly can to ret
What does Ellsbury's situation have to do with Pedroia, though? Is there any reason to think Pedroia has acted in a way that would leave him open to a similar gambit, or that the Sox would pursue it if he had?
No. Pedroia is a class individual and the RS are a class organization.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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According to MLB Trade Rumors the Yankees are planning not to cut any checks for Ellsbury in 2020 ("the team believes that Ellsbury acted inappropriately for multiple years."), leaving it up to Boras to pursue a grievance action. "No doubt the league, union, and Yankees’ insurer will have major roles to play in this as well."
Posted already right above your post
What does Ellsbury's situation have to do with Pedroia, though? Is there any reason to think Pedroia has acted in a way that would leave him open to a similar gambit, or that the Sox would pursue it if he had?
not a thing.
 

NomarsFool

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It's interesting as it's the first time I remember hearing about a team trying to not pay someone because they can't play due to injury. Maybe it's happened before. As more and more of these truly mega contracts show up in baseball, maybe it's something teams will try. Seems like a real moonshot, though. Would be quite an ugly look for a team.
 

lexrageorge

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It's interesting as it's the first time I remember hearing about a team trying to not pay someone because they can't play due to injury. Maybe it's happened before. As more and more of these truly mega contracts show up in baseball, maybe it's something teams will try. Seems like a real moonshot, though. Would be quite an ugly look for a team.
There is the thread on the Yankees forum discussing the Ellsbury situation, which is very different than what you're saying above.
 
Aug 11, 2019
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There is a great Ellsbury thread on the Yankee board, I think that part of the discussion might fit better there
There is the thread on the Yankees forum discussing the Ellsbury situation, which is very different than what you're saying above.
I don't read the Yankees forum so I was not aware of that but according to Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, the Yankees won't be paying the full amount left ($26+ million) on Ellsbury's contract and they are considering trying to get back what they paid him since 2017 because he was receiving "unauthorized and undisclosed medical treatment from an Atlanta clinic" (Progressive Medical Center).
 

Green Monster

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Pedroia seems to be hinting at something. Possibly the subject was broached when Bloom visited with him during the GM meetings.

roster-building … I’ve never had any say in any of that. Obviously, that’s their job. Right now my job is to try and get healthy and try and help us. Obviously, if I’m 100 percent and I can play baseball, I’ll be alright. But if it’s like last year and I’m trying to go out there with bones sticking out of the side of my knee and all that, yeah we should probably make an adjustment."