Peavy Trade Rumors

[jimbobim]

Cardinals looking for offense not Peavy, at this time. That's not a match when team sees Joe Kelly about to return to rotation. #stlcards

 
https://twitter.com/dgoold
 
Cardinals beat guy just said offense is the issue not pitching. We shall see.
 
Hard to believe with one guy just being lost for the year. 
 
I wonder what the price of baseball poker shall be. 

 

[the1andonly3003]

 
The Peavy stuff was so this morning

If Sox are taking future money on Craig's contract, why would Sox agree to eat Peavy money? It should even out.

 

[benhogan]

His AAV for this contract is 6.2 million, I would hardly call that an albatross.

Craig is guaranteed 26.5MM for the next 3 seasons or 38.5MM for the next 4 seasons, thats all thats important to this discussion not the AAV of his contract.

 

[alwyn96]

Craig is guaranteed 26.5MM for the next 3 seasons or 38.5MM for the next 4 seasons, thats all thats important to this discussion not the AAV of his contract.

 
The AAV of his contract is what counts towards the luxury tax, no? It seems like that's all that would be important to the Red Sox. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Cardinals looking for offense not Peavy, at this time. That's not a match when team sees Joe Kelly about to return to rotation. #stlcards​

 
https://twitter.com/dgoold
 
Cardinals beat guy just said offense is the issue not pitching. We shall see.
 
Hard to believe with one guy just being lost for the year. 
 
I wonder what the price of baseball poker shall be. 

This makes sense. Put this rumor to rest for now I think. The Cardinals have good young pitching in the minors and Carlos Martinez. Why do they need Peavy? Just doesn't make sense. I wouldn't mind seeing what the price for Heyward is though. If there was ever a change of scenary candidate it's him.

 

[soxhop411]

This makes sense. Put this rumor to rest for now I think. The Cardinals have good young pitching in the minors and Carlos Martinez. Why do they need Peavy? Just doesn't make sense. I wouldn't mind seeing what the price for Heyward is though. If there was ever a change of scenary candidate it's him.

he is the only one who says they are not going after Peavy... Every other reporter (both BOS and national) has said that STL is going after him...

 

[alwyn96]

This makes sense. Put this rumor to rest for now I think. The Cardinals have good young pitching in the minors and Carlos Martinez. Why do they need Peavy? Just doesn't make sense. I wouldn't mind seeing what the price for Heyward is though. If there was ever a change of scenary candidate it's him.

Well, Wacha, Garcia, and Kelly are on the DL (although Kelly's back soon), and Miller looks lost. They could certainly use another starter if they want to make a push for the playoffs this year. There isn't much in the minors anymore. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

he is the only one who says they are not going after Peavy... Every other reporter (both BOS and national) has said that STL is going after him...

He is the Cards beat writer. There is probably some truth in what he is saying. They have been having offensive problems for a little while.

 

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/dgoold/status/486653665441107968
 
It explains why they're interested in Peavy, at least.

 

[EvilEmpire]

That tweet makes it sound like they were talking about Lester instead of Peavy.

Edit: Or, they are going after Peavy because he isn't a top starter and costs less. Seems like an odd thing to say in the middle of a deal for Peavy though.

 

[MakMan44]

That tweet makes it sound like they were talking about Lester instead of Peavy.

I was thinking Price, actually. 

 

[mt8thsw9th]

 
he's never made an error in the outfield. 

 
You keep saying this, but he's also a statue in the field, so he doesn't have the requisite range to get to balls that he could make an error on. He's got an interesting offensive upside, but if his drop-off isn't a mirage, he's like a LHH, rich-man's Jonny Gomes. who wouldn't be an upgrade at 1B or DH.
 
He could be an upgrade this season, but it really comes down to who is more important long-term, him or a good prospect. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

I was thinking Price, actually.

Yeah, Price or Shark (before the trade) would have fit. That conversation may have been a little while ago.

 

[soxhop411]

Now that I think about it, those tweets from the STL reporter seem 100% like posturing to me.... Why let these rumors spread for almost the whole day, and only NOW say something? And how do we explain the STL scout(s) at his last start? If STL is really looking for "offense" they are scouting the wrong team

 

[Hoplite]

Now that I think about it, those tweets from the STL reporter seem 100% like posturing to me.... Why let these rumors spread for almost the whole day, and only NOW say something? And how do we explain the STL scout(s) at his last start? If STL is really looking for "offense" they are scouting the wrong team

 
Agreed, the talking to the Sox about offense and the Sox talking to the Braves could both be posturing.

 

[Bigpupp]

I mean, the Cards didn't send scouts to watch the Sox earlier this week because of all the offense they would be able to trade for. Seems as though both sides are trying to get the upper hand.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Since when do we give weight to, um, anything a beat writer says?

 

[Byrdbrain]

I don't completely disagree with the last few posts but Gould is highly respected and in the last tweet he makes it clear this info is coming from the Cards GM.
It's certainly not uncommon to use a beat guy to spread misinformation but usually it is from an un-named source not direct from the GM.

 

[Plympton91]

The idea that Koji shouldn't be traded makes no sense. He's 39, a free agent to be, and has no chance of being offered a QO.

Going back to Baltimore makes so much sense.

Who closes in 2015? Or are they punting 2 seasons?

 

[rymflaherty]

ESPN thought enough of the rumor to have it on their bottom line (about an hour or so ago, not sure if it's still up)
I believe it was Stark that had his name attached, and it was making reference to the fact that the deal could occur at any moment.

 

[BosRedSox5]

ESPN thought enough of the rumor to have it on their bottom line (about an hour or so ago, not sure if it's still up)
I believe it was Stark that had his name attached, and it was making reference to the fact that the deal could occur at any moment.

 
Is it possible that the two teams have a deal but they and MLB are sitting on it until after the game or until tomorrow AM?

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I think Jake Peavy has to cost us more than Craig Allen. 
 
I mean, we are essentially talking about .5 years of Age-33 Jake Peavy at $16m AAV in return for 3.5 years of Age 29-32 Allen Craig at $8.33 AAV.
 
Not that the projections are sacrosanct, but they are illustrative. Jake Peavy is projected for .9 wins between now and the end of the year. Allen Craig is projected at .8 wins. Then Craig is projected for 1.9 wins in 2015, 1.7 wins in 2016, and 1.5 wins in 2017. That's 0.9 wins at ~$8.9m/win of Peavy value against 5.1 wins at $5m/win for Craig. Highway robbery. 
 
I get that the deal makes some amount of sense for the Cardinals given that Craig is somewhat in the way of other talent, but still it's too objectively unbalanced. I think we'll have to give up more than Peavy for Craig. 

 

[Darnell's Son]

I think Jake Peavy has to cost us more than Craig Allen. 
 
I mean, we are essentially talking about .5 years of Age-33 Jake Peavy at $16m AAV in return for 3.5 years of Age 29-32 Allen Craig at $8.33 AAV.
 
Not that the projections are sacrosanct, but they are illustrative. Jake Peavy is projected for .9 wins between now and the end of the year. Allen Craig is projected at .8 wins. Then Craig is projected for 1.9 wins in 2015, 1.7 wins in 2016, and 1.5 wins in 2017. That's 0.9 wins at ~$8.9m/win of Peavy value against 5.1 wins at $5m/win for Craig. Highway robbery. 
 
I get that the deal makes some amount of sense for the Cardinals given that Craig is somewhat in the way of other talent, but still it's too objectively unbalanced. I think we'll have to give up more than Peavy for Craig. 

I would imagine we would be paying freight and/or throwing in a lottery prospect.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

He's a RHH.

 
You're a RHH.
 
Pwned.
 
On both sides.

 

[soxhop411]

Mike Petraglia ‏@Trags  44s
Jake Peavy telling reporters that he's spoken to #RedSox GM Ben Cherington and will likely be traded. #Braves is one possible landing spot.
 
 
https://twitter.com/Trags/status/486708193754882048

 

[bosockboy]

What kind of prospects can we buy by taking back Uggla?

 

[Darnell's Son]

I would rather have Peavy than Uggla.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I would rather have Peavy than Uggla.

Well yeah, that's why he was asking what prospect(s) we could get ATL to give up by taking Uggla off their hands.

 

[bosockboy]

Braves don't have one OF prospect in their top ten.

 

[DJnVa]

Who closes in 2015? Or are they punting 2 seasons?

That's funny, because Koji closed us all the way to a title last year but wasn't the closer to start the season.

No closer in July 2014 means punting 2015?

 

[Darnell's Son]

Not sure I understand. They could bring him back for 2015 even if they trade him.

Otherwise, yeah, there's a pretty good reality that the 2015 team will not need a high priced closer, as well.

 
 

That's funny, because Koji closed us all the way to a title last year but wasn't the closer to start the season.

No closer in July 2014 means punting 2015?

This is the Peavy thread.
 
THIS is the Koji thread.

 

[E5 Yaz]

That's funny, because Koji closed us all the way to a title last year but wasn't the closer to start the season.

No closer in July 2014 means punting 2015?

 
Careful. You're starting to understand him

 

[soxhop411]

JP quotes
 
Ryan Hannable ‏@RyanHannable  5m
JP: "I will tell you this, my love for the Red Sox will be unbreakable. … As a player what we did last year is all I ever dreamed of doing"
 
 
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes  9m
Peavy: Anything I say and do I want people to know that I love it here. I can't imagine having to say goodbye....
 
Ryan Hannable ‏@RyanHannable  2m
JP: I hope all y'all arent around to see me cry like a baby because if that day does come it's coming to be tough for me to look some (cont)
 
Ryan Hannable ‏@RyanHannable  1m
JP (cont): guys in the eye and not know that I’m going to be on their team.”

 

[garlan5]

If Peavy is indeed dealt then I give the guy props.  He loved it here and made it known. He helped us win a championship.  I really liked his effort even if it didn't pan out this year.  I hope he nets us something decent in return.  I'd rather deal Douby, Breslow, and A.J for a bag of beans.  

 

[Sprowl]

The Koji trade debate has been moved.
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/84386-koji-to-or-not-koji-to-that-is-the-question/

 

[Brianish]

JP quotes
 
Ryan Hannable ‏@RyanHannable  5m
JP: "I will tell you this, my love for the Red Sox will be unbreakable. … As a player what we did last year is all I ever dreamed of doing"
 
 
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes  9m
Peavy: Anything I say and do I want people to know that I love it here. I can't imagine having to say goodbye....
 
Ryan Hannable ‏@RyanHannable  2m
JP: I hope all y'all arent around to see me cry like a baby because if that day does come it's coming to be tough for me to look some (cont)
 
Ryan Hannable ‏@RyanHannable  1m
JP (cont): guys in the eye and not know that I’m going to be on their team.”

 
Man, now I kinda wanna keep him.

 

[Darnell's Son]

 
Man, now I kinda wanna keep him.

Embrace Rubby, and his awesomeness.

 

[jimbobim]

Good luck to Peavy. The NL is the perfect place for him. Always hung in there even if his stuff is fading.
 
Loved last year the stories of him and the little good luck statue and the duck boat purchase.   

 

[LeoCarrillo]

 
Man, now I kinda wanna keep him.

 
Those quotes certainly hammer home exactly what a good fit he was with the 2013 team. There were other pitchers out there. The FO made the right call with this guy. He fit in. Got the cigar-store Indian. Gave us a playoff win. Put Doubie and Workman in the pen. Settled some nerves.
 
Point to the numbers, fine. Maybe they win without him anyway, maybe not. Know what. At a minimum, he was Ringo. He didn't screw it up. And he did a bit more than that.
 
Adios, Duckboat Jake. 

 

[Manramsclan]

 
 
Adios, Duckboat Jake. 

 
 

Good luck to Peavy. The NL is the perfect place for him. Always hung in there even if his stuff is fading.

 
Do you guys know something we don't?

 

[mauf]

I think Jake Peavy has to cost us more than Craig Allen. 
 
I mean, we are essentially talking about .5 years of Age-33 Jake Peavy at $16m AAV in return for 3.5 years of Age 29-32 Allen Craig at $8.33 AAV.
 
Not that the projections are sacrosanct, but they are illustrative. Jake Peavy is projected for .9 wins between now and the end of the year. Allen Craig is projected at .8 wins. Then Craig is projected for 1.9 wins in 2015, 1.7 wins in 2016, and 1.5 wins in 2017. That's 0.9 wins at ~$8.9m/win of Peavy value against 5.1 wins at $5m/win for Craig. Highway robbery. 
 
I get that the deal makes some amount of sense for the Cardinals given that Craig is somewhat in the way of other talent, but still it's too objectively unbalanced. I think we'll have to give up more than Peavy for Craig. 

Good analysis, but you're forgetting two factors:

-- The Sox presumably would absorb the difference in 2014 salaries.

-- Craig's rights for 2015-17 have value only to the extent he projects to produce more than a free agent with his salary would be expected to produce.

Accepting your projections and assuming a going rate of $7mm/WAR on this winter's market (and ignoring inflation in 2016-17), the Sox would be picking up something like a win and a half over the next three seasons over what the dollars committed to Craig would be expected to acquire in free agency. That seems like a price that a contender like the Cards would gladly pay to fill a hole on this year's team.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 
Put Doubie and Workman in the pen.

 
Why put Workman in the pen?  The guy just threw 7 innings of 3-run ball.  He's pitched well.  Sprowl seems to think he'll wind up in relief but let's give him the rest of the season to prove himself.  I think he projects to be a 200IP workhorse at the back of the rotation which is incredibly valuable and something Doubront can't seem to accomplish.  
 
Peavy brought emotion and with those types of comments, if I was on the team, he would make ME feel like I fit in more and was a part of the unit and hopefully that kind of support takes off some of the pressure from the young guys.  Maybe that kind of support here would have kept Eric Van from signing with SoxProspects.  
 
EDIT: Oh, I get it, you're talking about how it allowed us to put Workman & Doubie in the pen last year for the stretch and playoffs.  Got it.  NM then.  

 

[Bone Chips]

Those quotes certainly hammer home exactly what a good fit he was with the 2013 team. There were other pitchers out there. The FO made the right call with this guy. He fit in. Got the cigar-store Indian. Gave us a playoff win. Put Doubie and Workman in the pen. Settled some nerves.
 
Point to the numbers, fine. Maybe they win without him anyway, maybe not. Know what. At a minimum, he was Ringo. He didn't screw it up. And he did a bit more than that.
 
Adios, Duckboat Jake.

That is one awesome post. Well done.

 

[Darnell's Son]

 
Why put Workman in the pen?  The guy just threw 7 innings of 3-run ball.  He's pitched well.  Sprowl seems to think he'll wind up in relief but let's give him the rest of the season to prove himself.  I think he projects to be a 200IP workhorse at the back of the rotation which is incredibly valuable and something Doubront can't seem to accomplish.  
 
Peavy brought emotion and with those types of comments, if I was on the team, he would make ME feel like I fit in more and was a part of the unit and hopefully that kind of support takes off some of the pressure from the young guys.  Maybe that kind of support here would have kept Eric Van from signing with SoxProspects.  
 
EDIT: Oh, I get it, you're talking about how it allowed us to put Workman & Doubie in the pen last year for the stretch and playoffs.  Got it.  NM then.  

Past tense.

 

[MakMan44]

Past tense.

I enjoy the part where he edited that in, but you decided to respond anyway. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

"We share a brotherhood. We would have shared that brotherhood regardless of the way last season played out, but when it played out the way it did, it became a forever thing."

 
http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/11193691/jake-peavy-expects-traded-boston-red-sox

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

"We share a brotherhood. We would have shared that brotherhood regardless of the way last season played out, but when it played out the way it did, it became a forever thing."

 
Is that Darnell's Son talking about SOSH?

 

[garlan5]

last year was such a special season.  i honestly didn't think we would win it all because of how surreal it seemed to me as the year played out game in and game out.  each win seemed so wild and unbelievable. we just seemed to have such a rabbit up our asses.  not taking away what we did but i didnt think it would hold up through the playoffs.  But it did. and Peavy helped maintain that edge. I dont care what the numbers say.  He eased the mindset of the pitching rotation. Last year was an everlasting baseball orgasam that i couldnt believe kept happening.  Honestly the loss of Vic this year and god help us, Salty, may have been what did us in this year.  Ellsbury wasn't the reason 2014 sucked donkey ball. Maybe just maybe Salty's permfresh hair for A.J's girlyman blond highlights is what did us in this year.  Sorry to rant and hijack the Peavy thread.  too many beers tonight.  Tonight the season seems stamped DONE.  

 

[SydneySox]

Uh. Don't know how to follow that.
 
But it's worth noting he's still on the team at the moment.

 

[garlan5]

Uh. Don't know how to follow that.
 
But it's worth noting he's still on the team at the moment.

sorry- drinking way more than normal. prob best to disregard