I'm just glad I got in on the plus side of things. That $4 is going to make for an amazing Christmas next year,
Payton Pritchard says PRabbit, PRabbit on the First of Every Month
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For some context, that’s far better than Jokic’s odds at MVP (-115), McCain’s odds at ROY (-145), or Wemby’s odds at DPOY (-190). It’s his to lose, no one is taking it from him at this rate.
There's ideally a cool/attitude factor to 6MOY, and PP has that in spades.
The voters will give it to a Brogdon type if they have to, but they'd rather not.
Here's a question for everyone: There was a time on this forum when, if you suggested that Pritchard's ceiling was starting on a sub .500 team, that would have earned you snickers and derision. Now he's in the process of blowing through that ceiling.
So where would he go in a redraft? The 2020 class wasn't great. Ant would still go #1, LaMelo in the top 3, and Maxey now maybe top three as well? But then it kind of thins out after that. Would Pritchard crack the top ten? Could he go as high as 8? Or 7 or 6?
So where would he go in a redraft? The 2020 class wasn't great. Ant would still go #1, LaMelo in the top 3, and Maxey now maybe top three as well? But then it kind of thins out after that. Would Pritchard crack the top ten? Could he go as high as 8? Or 7 or 6?
Ant #1, top 5 consisting of Maxey, LaMelo, Haliburton and Bane. #s 6-11 probably include Obi Toppin, Quickley, Okongwu, Avdija and Vassell, and Pritchard, in some order. I'm OK asserting he'd go ahead of the rest. I probably take him above Quickley in that group, but the rest would depend on my team's need, if I'm strong at wing, etc.
Figure this is as good a time as any to post the Dean on Draft analysis of the PP draft pick.
View: https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1329268358831874049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1329268358831874049%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
View: https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1329268358831874049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1329268358831874049%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
What ever happened to ol' Dean?
Gotta admit I kinda thought the same about the pick. PP's development this year is biggest improvement over last year, easily. And they'll need to be better to repeat.
Called Jaylen the worst contract in the league last year, seems to have quit posting on Twitter, has a few posts on substance, and hasn't posted there since January, and isn't on bluesky. I'm actually curious now if he got heckled to heck by Celtics fans since January.
Pritchard became just the 5th player this season with at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in a game off the bench. The others: 6'9" John Collins, 6'7" Amen Thompson, 6'11" Jonas Valanciunas and 7'1" Derrick Lively II.
View: https://twitter.com/DickLipe/status/1868473907780698375
View: https://twitter.com/DickLipe/status/1868473907780698375
I have to post the quote.
PINA
Right now, Pritchard is the most prolific and dangerous bench option in the NBA. If the season ended today, Sixth Man of the Year would be his. Easily. He’s a catapult that packs only fireballs. He is drilling the third-most 3s in the entire league at the time of this writing, with the second-highest true shooting percentage among all guards who’ve logged at least 500 minutes.
Pritchard’s per-100-possession stats are roughly the same as McCollum’s, but there’s no comparison when you stack their efficiency side by side. One guy’s shot chart is flashing neon green everywhere on the court, while the other’s is a splatter of ketchup and mustard. Pritchard is indispensable on a team that’s the consensus favorite to win it all. At his position, he’s a plus defender and rebounder who never strays outside his lane. That awareness is generally hard to find; on a bona fide championship contender, it’s priceless.
Truth be told I thought Sam Hauser would eventually catapult himself ahead of PP. BUT Pritchard's ball-handling, ability to put defenders on his hip, & attack the rim is a level above Sam offensively.
His combination of ball handling and shooting ability make him such a weapon. He is consistently probing and attacking defenders.
This feels like one of those rare ascendant seasons, or at least it has been thus far.
This feels like one of those rare ascendant seasons, or at least it has been thus far.
I thought so, too.
The (growing) gap between him and Hauser is rooted more in mindset than skill set. You have to have sociopathic levels of confidence to succeed the way Pritchard is succeeding at the moment— launching logo threes, taking bigger guys to the cup, etc— especially when you don't have major pedigree as a college star or high school prospect.
Edit: also, the consensus that PP's plus defender for his position (as stated in the Ringer profile above) is something I didn't think I'd see.
PP is great and certainly he tries as hard as any guard his size in the league but I have to quibble with Pina's use of "plus" here.
Not a knock against PP since he does what he can and it doesn't diminish his value but I think Pina's getting a little caught up in himself here.
Thats fair.
I'm a fan of his 3/4 court on-ball pressure. PP does try to make it difficult for the opposing team to get into their offense. I'd label PP more of a plus regular-season defender due to his effort/annoyance level. His size makes him very huntable, especially relative to his teammates (who range from good to All-defense players) in the PLAYOFFs, which is the real measurement. Also, CJM does a good job not putting PP into bad defensive match-ups.
I think Bane is clearly in that top 5 and can't imagine anyone taking any of the PP, Deni, Toppin, Vassell, etc tier ahead of him.
Dunn at #100 with arguably the best contract in the league, again. Every time he is a FA I'm more and more blown away that he is signing these deals. Why is this version of Curry still at #6?
Yeah, I'd take Bane over all those guys. He's imperfect, but a really good player. I like Toppin and PP but neither is a starter on a good team, imo (and I love PP's development and how he fits in the role he's in). It's not clear Vassell is one, though maybe? Bane already is a starter on a good team. Deni may be, but a bit early to say he's in Bane's class.
I'd take them as Bane; PP; Vassel; Avdija; Obi personally. And Vassel has some upside that PP doesn't because of size.
Yeah, I get that Bane is having a down year....but he was REALLY good prior to that, and I thought that was consensus? Seeing him mentioned with PP and Toppin seems a bit extreme.
The Olympics, plus the Warrior’s fast start, plus he still looks like an all-star with some occasional huge bursts. Perception is really slow to change when the numbers still look ok.
*edit - it doesn’t explain at all why he’s still at number 6 now, but as time goes on the 2022 title looks better and better for his legacy. Durant has had no team success since leaving GS (that gets louder every year), the Celtics proved they weren’t just a talented team on a hot streak and have turned into the best team in the league, and some of the key players from that title (Poole, Wiggins) have really seen their careers take a bad turn. All this makes Curry’s efforts in that finals look even greater, which pumps up his rep now.
I think I switch Vassel with PP but agreed otherwise. IMO, I think Toppin might even be a tier below the other 4
PP was a college star. As a senior he was Pac 12 player of the year, averaged, 21, 6 and 4 on 42% from 3.
People obviously doubted he could do the same thing in the NBA, but the guy was really great at Oregon.
Especially his last season when he basically turned into Steve Nash at Santa Clara (against better competition).
I know he's your guy but this is the first time Dunn has ever seen the light of a TOP100 day. He finally figured a few things out over the last 2 seasons.
I love Dunn's contract (and was begging Brad to keep him 3yrs seasons ago during the TT trade) but I'd still take PP over him
Pritchard is playing really great. I said to myself, "He looks like Isaiah Thomas (IT4) out there. I plugged that into DARKO and he's not even as good as Thomas was with us, he really was a superstar for a couple years. Then, I compared Avery Bradley to those two and Pritchard aligns with him; still not bad for a 6th 7th guy off the bench.
Poor Thomas dropped off the cliff.
Poor Thomas dropped off the cliff.
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IT finished 5th in MVP voting. He never busted through 2? The voters really don't give a damn about defense
I don't know how PP shoots more efficiently than he has this season (.672 TS%) other than reducing his buzzer heaves
IT in 2016-17 had one of the biggest offense/defense impact gaps you'll ever see.IT finished 5th in MVP voting. He never busted through 2? The voters really don't give a damn about defense
I don't know how PP shoots more efficiently than he has this season (.672 TS%) other than reducing his buzzer heaves
He was an MVP on offense, and he turned whomever he was guarding into an MVP on the other end.
Indeed...JJ was a criminally underrated NBA playerWatch that again only this time imagine JJ is talking about himself.
He has a tremendous understanding of analytics. He just has to look back at his On-Off +/- over his career.
Probably wants to smack the next guy who says he was a terrible defender
Would you say Hauser's game replicates JJ's approach more than PP?Watch that again only this time imagine JJ is talking about himself.
I don't remember JJ being an on-ball/dribble-drive threat like PP, much more of a C&S wizard.
Yeah, JJ was very much Short Hauser, right down to how both of them like to pump from 3 to move in for a high % middie.
JJ/Korver were spreading floors & bending defenses before that was even a thing.
yep his D-DPM is Luka bad from prior seasons, but JJs offense far outweighed his "horrific D"
Looks like it did for a couple seasons, but his DPM is below water for most of his career
Probably somewhere in between but more toward Pritchard. As Redick matured and the game slowed down for him he became pretty good at gaining angles with his dribble into the lane but like Pritchard he was opportunistic in this regard and understood his matchup very well. He wasn’t “only” a 3-point shooter who never got to the line like Hauser but was excellent curling off screens to catch and shoot too. Redick actually had a much higher 2-Pt shot attempt ratio than Pritchard.
Did Bowiac leave the Cellar? He would be the person to ask about DARKO
In NBA analytics, "Daily Plus-Minus" (often referred to as "DPM" or "DARKO") is a more advanced metric that calculates a player's impact on the game by considering not just their basic plus-minus, but also factors like recent performance, opponent quality, and situational context, using complex statistical models like "Kalman filters" to weight recent data more heavily and provide a more predictive measure of a player's daily impact on the game
DARKO, aka Daily Plus-Minus or DPM, is created by Kostya Medvedovsky. DARKO (stands for “Daily Adjusted and Regressed Kalman Optimized“) is a composite predictive metric that uses box score and plus-minus stats. By blending these components in proportion to the number of total possessions of a player, recent performance is weighted more heavily to better predict future game outcomes.
(On-Court & On-Off) make up +/- per 100.
1. Your teammates will affect your On-Court number
2. How well you play relative to your teammates will be reflected by On-Off
Over time they will start telling you how well the team fares on Defense, on Offense, & Overall when a player is playing or not playing.
It's been my contention for a while that Brad was chasing Derrick White & not Dejounte Murray (even though DM was much more decorated). White's On-Court & On-Off dwarfed Dejounte when they played for the Spurs.
It’s funny, at the time of the White trade, absolutely no one would’ve said White was better than Murray. Last year when White started making his leap, it was only a few Boston fans that suggested (largely tongue in cheek) White was better. Now, it’s basically a given. Since Murray’s return from injury (11 games) he‘s filled up a box score as well as he ever has (16/6/7 and 2 steals), but his shooting (which was never great to begin with) is in the toilet, he’s got a .469 TS this year.
Not that he was the centerpiece of the deal, but Brad including Romeo Langford in the White trade is just the icing on the cake of the Sixers giving the Celtics their championship core.
Pritchard (& his contract) is untradeable from a Celtic's perspective. Hauser is pretty much untradeable also. We desperately need their cheap deals to keep the JAYs & White
I remember a bunch of us pining for Dejounte Murray before the deadline (but thought it would take Brown to attain)
On the day of the trade I was kind of shocked to see how good White's +/- per 100 & advanced metrics were.
Your timeline checks out.
Then by the next season was fully on board with White > Murray
Yeah I don’t even know why talking about trading PP is a thing. He may be one of the most untradeable guys in the league for a multitude of reasons. Locked up contract, fan and teammate favorite, nobody is giving up a package for a 6-foot guard who is barely passable against starting guards, etc.
On a lighter note, Jaylen threw up “a Pritchard” from halfcourt just before the buzzer. It was an airball. He laughed as he walked off the court. Expect him to throw up “The Ricky Davis” a full second after the buzzer next time.