Payton Pritchard drafted #26 overall

slamminsammya

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I think theres some survivorship bias in this young guys usually get better take because the ones who get to play are precisely the ones who improve. But obviously young guys tend to get better. Now can we move past it?
 

TripleOT

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The scouts interviewed by Keith Smith seem to be higher on PP than many on this board. I’m not going to rehash my opinion of Pritchard (think shaking green pom poms while channeling Tommy Heinsohn), but am looking forward to revisiting this after thirty or so games.
 

Imbricus

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The scouts interviewed by Keith Smith seem to be higher on PP than many on this board.
Yeah, I noticed that too. Pritch is one of those players where scouts/sportswriters seem to be higher on his ability than this board, which is sort of unusual. Reverse homerism? :) Anyway, he'll be a good one to revisit in a few years. I thought his summer league play was interesting, in that it almost seemed like someone told him beforehand, "Show us you can be a point guard/distributor," and he averaged 8 and a half assists per game.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, I noticed that too. Pritch is one of those players where scouts/sportswriters seem to be higher on his ability than this board, which is sort of unusual. Reverse homerism? :) Anyway, he'll be a good one to revisit in a few years. I thought his summer league play was interesting, in that it almost seemed like someone told him beforehand, "Show us you can be a point guard/distributor," and he averaged 8 and a half assists per game.
I read the reports and think they are in line with the board. He can shoot, needs to defend more and pass better. They have him as a 20 minute player. Everyone on the board pretty much has him pegged for the same role.


If you read the reports as glowing, it's probably because you are high on PP. I don't know how anyone can read those scouting reports and think they are higher than the board.
 

Devizier

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If you read the reports as glowing, it's probably because you are high on PP. I don't know how anyone can read those scouting reports and think they are higher than the board.
A number of folks on the board think he won’t get a second contract with the Celtics (but with someone else?). That would imply a replacement level NBA player which honestly is not consistent with 20MPG on a playoff contender.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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A number of folks on the board think he won’t get a second contract with the Celtics (but with someone else?). That would imply a replacement level NBA player which honestly is not consistent with 20MPG on a playoff contender.
I was one of those who mentioned that (IIRC, one of the scouts mentioned that) but I said that not because the Cs wouldn't want him back but because PP would price him out of the Cs budget. Of course that depends on two things: (i) whether PP goes to RFA or whether he'll take some financial guarantee before that and (ii) how much the Cs want to go into the luxury tax.

IMO, this is entirely consistent with a 20 mpg playoff contributor who comes off the bench for the Cs but one or another team wants to try at starting PG in a couple of years.
 

Devizier

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Generally speaking, contenders don’t get “priced out”. Once they’ve assembled their core it is almost preferably to keep high dollar contracts around at the very least for trade matching purposes. Of course there are tax constraints but the ceiling is high for a legit title contender.
 

ManicCompression

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Generally speaking, contenders don’t get “priced out”. Once they’ve assembled their core it is almost preferably to keep high dollar contracts around at the very least for trade matching purposes. Of course there are tax constraints but the ceiling is high for a legit title contender.
This isn't necessarily a general truth for players of Payton's level. Look at Alex Caruso. The Bulls paid him a mid-level deal, and the Lakers said go ahead, have fun. Bucks did the same with PJ Tucker. Phoenix let Torrey Craig go, etc. If a team is in the tax and they can somewhat replicate an expensive, one-dimensional player with a minimum contract, they typically do it. If Payton grows into a more robust PG, then he's an actual asset you could use or trade.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Generally speaking, contenders don’t get “priced out”. Once they’ve assembled their core it is almost preferably to keep high dollar contracts around at the very least for trade matching purposes. Of course there are tax constraints but the ceiling is high for a legit title contender.
There are financial limitations and tax consequences for second unit guys once they “build their market.” It isn’t uncommon for others to see the shiny bright object and overpay while his role with us can be filled with a cheaper and shorter term contract. Wyc, along with other owners/GM’s, have a history of allowing similar type guys to get paid elsewhere on long-term deals……Posey, Olynyk, Big Baby the obvious ones that quickly come to mind but many times these players are traded before they hit the market as we had no interest in signing them to long-term deals like a Perkins. Even minuscule pay increases are sometimes frowned upon as they would require a longer term deal…..guys like Tony Allen, Steimsma, etc.
 
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Devizier

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This isn't necessarily a general truth for players of Payton's level. Look at Alex Caruso. The Bulls paid him a mid-level deal, and the Lakers said go ahead, have fun.
I can't speak to the others, but Caruso's contract was in excess of what the Lakers could match as an RFA.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Let's put this another way. If both AN and RL prove themselves to be rotational players over the next year or two, the Cs aren't going to be able to afford to keep all of AN, RL, and PP.

PHO has somewhat of the same problem with Cam Johnson. When it comes time for his extension, they will have Booker on a max; Ayton is overwhelmingly likely to get a 25% max contract; and they also have to pay Bridges. That's not even counting Paul (who has a $15.8M guarantee for 2023-24). So according to this article, given that PHO will likely be deep into the luxury tax in 2022-23, the question is whether they pay Johnson market rate to keep the the team together in 2023-24 and most likely subject themselves to repeater tax?
 

lexrageorge

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There are 2 competing interpretations to the conclusion that that Pritchard will not receive a 2nd contract offer from the Celtics.

One is that he becomes too expensive for the Celtics given the role he plays on the team. If he develops into a solid bench rotation player that meshes well with the rest of the roster, we would all be thrilled with that outcome given the dearth of useful players typically available at pick #26. However, the team may decide to invest elsewhere and let Pritchard walk and replace his production in other ways, which may not be all that hard if the team is a true title contender at that time. Or he could be a trade chip as part of a bigger deal. This outcome does not make the pick a bust by any means; it's just a realistic possibility given the situation.

The other interpretation is that he goes the way of RJ Hunter and James Young and Ante Zizic and is either scraping for a min contract with another team or out of the league altogether. I think this projection would be quite pessimistic given what we saw last season. But it's not out of the question either; I personally don't think it's likely, but clearly some posters disagree.
 

JM3

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I can't speak to the others, but Caruso's contract was in excess of what the Lakers could match as an RFA.
That's what I thought as well, but apparently it's not the case.

Caruso took the Bulls offer to the Lakers & they declined to match/counter (Amick).

Paying Caruso $7.5m would have cost the Lakers $30m+ in luxury tax, meaning that he would have cost the Lakers $38m this year.

Celtics could easily end up in a similar situation with Pritchard.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There are 2 competing interpretations to the conclusion that that Pritchard will not receive a 2nd contract offer from the Celtics.

One is that he becomes too expensive for the Celtics given the role he plays on the team. If he develops into a solid bench rotation player that meshes well with the rest of the roster, we would all be thrilled with that outcome given the dearth of useful players typically available at pick #26. However, the team may decide to invest elsewhere and let Pritchard walk and replace his production in other ways, which may not be all that hard if the team is a true title contender at that time. Or he could be a trade chip as part of a bigger deal. This outcome does not make the pick a bust by any means; it's just a realistic possibility given the situation.

The other interpretation is that he goes the way of RJ Hunter and James Young and Ante Zizic and is either scraping for a min contract with another team or out of the league altogether. I think this projection would be quite pessimistic given what we saw last season. But it's not out of the question either; I personally don't think it's likely, but clearly some posters disagree.
Barring injury I do think that last paragraph is all but out of the question since PP has already proven that he can be a productive player in this league which those listed cannot. When you draft a low upside player who is ready to contribute quickly you are doing so to buy those cheap years which is the opposite of a pick like say Bagarin…….so I agree with you stating it is unlikely I just think it is even more unlikely than that. :)

These are different philosophies that can (and should) be used together based on a teams needs and whether they are competing or rebuilding. The latter was my MAJOR issue with Ainge selecting Olynyk rather than taking higher upside players with the two mid-round picks we had. I still have dreams of Gobert in green.
 

JM3

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Random stuff from the 2013 draft:

The player with the most career win shares of any top 9 pick that year is...KCP.

The leaders:

#27 74.9
#15 74.6
#12 49.1
#22 39.5
#10 36.7
#13 33.6

Gobert, Giannis, SAdams, Mason Plumlee (lol WS, although he's also 4th in VORP), McCollum, KO

The Wolves traded #9 to the Jazz for #14 & #21. #21 was the best player of the 3 drafted.

Burke, BazzMo, Dieng

The Celtics traded up from 16 to 13 with the Mavs, giving up 2 '14 2nd rounders. These turned out to be the 34th & 47th picks - Cleanthony Early & Russ Smith. There were some decent players in that 2nd round though, including #38 Dinwiddie, #39 Jerami Grant & #41 Jokic (more on him later).

The Celtics were not exactly swinging for the fences when they drafted Olynyk, who was 22. On the bright side they didn't draft BAZZ. Bazz should have been a good player except the whole being disastrously bad at defense, injury prone & inconsistent shooting thing. He is apparently thriving in China, though.

On the downside of course, Giannis went 15th.

The Denver Nuggets owned the 27th pick & drafted a guy Celtics Blog believed was too thin to be a center &, despite lack of range beyond 8 feet & 9'7 standing reach, believed would someday best be used as a stretch 4. SB Nation listed his ceiling as Shawn Bradley & floor as Alexis Ajinca.

Anyway, they traded this French mystery-man, coming off an 8/5 season in France, for the 46th pick & cash. They drafted Erick Green with the 46th pick. Green went on to score 159 NBA points & is now playing in Turkey.

The Nuggets spent the cash on a nice brunch (I assume), & Rudy Gobert has worked out pretty pretty well for the Jazz.

One wonders if the Nuggets had drafted Gobert, do they also take Jokic the next year? & if so, how would that look now?
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is actually a great injury for a shooter. The face mask creates tunnel vision and you’ll see guys go off when they first put the mask on. I first learned this when Joe Hassett broke his nose at Providence in the 70’s and dropped 30 his next game while crediting the mask for creating tunnel vision.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is actually a great injury for a shooter. The face mask creates tunnel vision and you’ll see guys go off when they first put the mask on. I first learned this when Joe Hassett broke his nose at Providence in the 70’s and dropped 30 his next game while crediting the mask for creating tunnel vision.
Quick, somebody punch Marcus Smart and Romeo Langford in the face
 

BigSoxFan

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I was still grieving the Patriots loss. I was not in my best frame of mind.
All good. In fairness, it was a lazy extension of my original joke. I, too, am not in the best frame of mind after that L.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Check 4 posts above. I started the joke, chief. Poor execution of a Big Ben but it’s training camp so I’ll forgive you.
Probably should have suspended him for the game. Guy is still getting his legs under him. The real shit begins next week!