Paul George to OKC

the moops

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Butler may have had a better year, but George is the better player. It is probably cancelled out with Butler's better contract though.

If George is signing an extension I would give up the equivalent of what I would give up for Butler.
 

smastroyin

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George was the better player before his knee injury, for sure. I think Butler is probably better right now (meaning the last 2 years at least, though he has his own knee concerns). The question is whether George regains more of his pre-knee injury form more the further he gets from the injury, if you know what I mean. I also think he might work better with Hayward than Butler does if you are going for an "either I get both or I do nothing" scenario.
 

jmm57

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Wasnt it a really bad broken(shattered?) leg, rather than an actual knee?
 

smastroyin

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sorry yes leg. I had knee on my mind for the Butler caveat.
 

Big John

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Suppose the Celtics land Griffin instead of Hayward. What about Millsap? Does that make it more or less likely that PG13 will agree to an extension? Personally I think the hypothetical 3-year extension is pie in the sky no matter which free agent the Celtics lure to Boston.
 

the moops

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Well the three year extension gets him to his 10th year so he can then sign his mega deal. Even if he gets dealt elsewhere he will likely only sign a 2 year deal at the end of next year.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Kaufman responded to a follow up question on twitter, for what it's worth:

Question:
George loves LA. Why go to their historic rival and sign long term? I mean, I'd love it if he signed, but... what happened?
Kaufman:
Easier path to a title in a passionate basketball market
 

ehaz

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Look at what Butler went for. Butler is a better player (according to the advanced stats if not reputation) on a better contract. The price for PG should be less. Levine (young 19 ppg but question marks coming off ACL maybe = Avery Bradley), Dunn (lotto pick last year, incomplete grade = Jaylen Brown), and move-up from 16 to 9 (maybe the equivalent of about #12, so say another asset like Jae, Rozier, or Smart). Now, subtract one of those, say Bradley + Brown. I doubt they trade Tatum straight-up for PG. He was #1 overall on their board so they've gotta be pretty confident Tatum turns into an all star caliber player but cost-controlled for yearrrzzz. Ainge probably values Tatum > George to be honest.
I've always thought more highly of George, but I'm not as well versed in advanced basketball stats as I am in other sports. What's the basic analytical argument for Butler > George translated in English?
 

The Social Chair

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Getting way too far ahead of myself but does IT fit with a hypothetical starting 5 that includes George and Hayward?

Horford/PG/Hayward has the potential of a great defensive line up and IT would negate that. He's also a ball stopper.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Getting way too far ahead of myself but does IT fit with a hypothetical starting 5 that includes George and Hayward?

Horford/PG/Hayward has the potential of a great defensive line up and IT would negate that. He's also a ball stopper.
Probably fine for this year but pretty much rules out a max contract (thankfully). If Smart could get to like 35% behind the arc he would be an amazing point guard for that lineup. Or when he's not creating for others just stick him in the corner where he's actually really good.
 

MillarTime

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Sign me up. I am thinking Crowder, one of Tatum/Brown, and the LAL/SAC pick? Too much?
 

#classicsquander

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I've always thought more highly of George, but I'm not as well versed in advanced basketball stats as I am in other sports. What's the basic analytical argument for Butler > George translated in English?
Something like RPM and other advanced metrics (http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM) would suggest, and I think scouts tend to agree, that Butler is a much better defensive player than George. Basically, that Butler is one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and that George (especially after the injury) is more limited defensively.

That said, I prefer George. I think he's a much more dynamic scorer and he's younger.
 

RedOctober3829

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Something like RPM and other advanced metrics (http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM) would suggest, and I think scouts tend to agree, that Butler is a much better defensive player than George. Basically, that Butler is one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and that George (especially after the injury) is more limited defensively.

That said, I prefer George. I think he's a much more dynamic scorer and he's younger.
I thought George was returning to his old self as the season went on this year. He was amazing in the playoffs against LeBron.
 

smastroyin

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I've always thought more highly of George, but I'm not as well versed in advanced basketball stats as I am in other sports. What's the basic analytical argument for Butler > George translated in English?
Just to make the point again, George has been a different player since the leg injury. Pre leg injury he was on a path to top ten NBA player. Now he's a level just below All-NBA. Still great, still worth a max, but not in the elite of the NBA.

Anyway, to answer the question, Butler does a couple of things better than George. These mostly come down to the fact that he plays better near the rim. His offensive rebounding is better, and he draws far more FTs, whereas George relies a little more on hitting jumpers. Butler also has been better at assisting his teammates, and commits less turnovers.

People constantly talk about Butler not being a good enough shooter, and while George is a better shooter for sure (and you can argue then a better fit for the Celtics if you like) and he takes and makes a lot of 3's, Butler's ability to draw fouls actually gets him to the same TS% as George.

Now, again, you can argue that for the Celtics specifically, they already have their attack out of a 1 on 1 or the PnR in Thomas, and having another lessens the value of both players. I'm not sure, though I think Stevens could figure it out. But I get that it is easier to envision the Celtics system making George look as good as it does Crowder, with George having a better baseline of skills to start from (and a bit more defensive versatility).
 

Sam Ray Not

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Not a huge difference between them in terms of stats (traditional or advanced) but George is significantly bigger and longer — legit 6'-9" with a 7-foot wingspan, where Butler is more like 6'-6", 6'-7" with a shortish wingspan. That's basically the difference between being able to slide over to the 4 and hang physically with the LeBrons, Durants, and Giannises of the world and being a bit too small to do so consistently.

Throw in the fact that George is a significantly better three-point shooter and I think you have a qualitatively better asset in terms of ease of roster construction.

Hayward + George ... just, wow. Make it happen, Danny.
 

#classicsquander

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I thought George was returning to his old self as the season went on this year. He was amazing in the playoffs against LeBron.
I agree, I don't usually care about intangibles, but George plays his ass off in the playoffs. He almost won a game in that series by himself, it would be exciting to see what he could do with good players around him. If George would agree to an extension, he's worth cashing in some of these assets for (not the 2018 Brooklyn pick, but pretty much any other pick), especially if you get Hayward as well. He just turned 27, he's going to be an excellent player in the league for five or six more seasons. I certainly tend to be more of a "build for the future" fan, but if you can get George and Hayward in the same off season, you have to pull the trigger on that.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The cap guys on CelticsNuts pretty much shot this down as not making much sens
Sign me up. I am thinking Crowder, one of Tatum/Brown, and the LAL/SAC pick? Too much?
This sounds about right to me. Jaylen is blocked and is valuable to the Pacers in a rebuild so I'd imagine he has to be included. Crowder would then be back in his ideal role on the 2nd unit backing up the 3 and playing the 4 in a smallball lineup. The pick could either be Tatum or the one acquired from moving down from 1 (the LAL/SAC pick).....I'd prefer to keep the pick and move Tatum as it has home run potential but I wouldn't let that kill this deal.
 

finnVT

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Sorry, posted this in the other thread (hard to keep them all straight), but more relevant here:

By my count, renouncing Zeller, Olynyk, and Young right now would put the C's at 25.5m cap space (based on the 99m cap number). That includes Zizic, Yabu, and Tatum's cap holds. That leaves them 4.2m short of a max offer. Assuming the tweet above is the plan, they'd need to first free up that space, then have a salary matching trade for George. You probably need to save AB+Crowder for the trade part so that salaries can match, so how do you free up 4.2m without moving either of them? Dumping Mickey, DJackson, and stashing Yabu gets you to 28.1, which is still 1.8m short. I don't see an easy path to freeing up the salary space for a max offer, that still leaves tradeable salaries to get PG, unless one of Smart/Brown/Tatum is getting moved.

What this tells me is that Brown or Tatum almost certainly would have to be one of the pieces going to IND, just to make the salaries work. That way, you could move Crowder now for a future pick, have the space to sign Hayward, then have a deal based around AB+Brown+(say, Mickey, for salary matching). That would put you just over cap, ~101m, with a 10-man roster of:

Smart/DJackson
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Tatum
George/Yabu
Horford/Zizic

That's a WAY shorter bench than they've seemed to preferred, and they'd be over cap, making it very hard to add any other meaningful pieces. But it is a nice starting 5.
 

the moops

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The cap guys on CelticsNuts pretty much shot this down as not making much sens

This sounds about right to me. Jaylen is blocked and is valuable to the Pacers in a rebuild so I'd imagine he has to be included. Crowder would then be back in his ideal role on the 2nd unit backing up the 3 and playing the 4 in a smallball lineup. The pick could either be Tatum or the one acquired from moving down from 1 (the LAL/SAC pick).....I'd prefer to keep the pick and move Tatum as it has home run potential but I wouldn't let that kill this deal.
This seems like a huge huge huge overpay for a team in IND that has little leverage. That deal is a much better deal than CHI just got for Butler.
 

RedOctober3829

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Sorry, posted this in the other thread (hard to keep them all straight), but more relevant here:

By my count, renouncing Zeller, Olynyk, and Young right now would put the C's at 25.5m cap space (based on the 99m cap number). That includes Zizic, Yabu, and Tatum's cap holds. That leaves them 4.2m short of a max offer. Assuming the tweet above is the plan, they'd need to first free up that space, then have a salary matching trade for George. You probably need to save AB+Crowder for the trade part so that salaries can match, so how do you free up 4.2m without moving either of them? Dumping Mickey, DJackson, and stashing Yabu gets you to 28.1, which is still 1.8m short. I don't see an easy path to freeing up the salary space for a max offer, that still leaves tradeable salaries to get PG, unless one of Smart/Brown/Tatum is getting moved.

What this tells me is that Brown or Tatum almost certainly would have to be one of the pieces going to IND, just to make the salaries work. That way, you could move Crowder now for a future pick, have the space to sign Hayward, then have a deal based around AB+Brown+(say, Mickey, for salary matching). That would put you just over cap, ~101m, with a 10-man roster of:

Smart/DJackson
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Tatum
George/Yabu
Horford/Zizic

That's a WAY shorter bench than they've seemed to preferred, and they'd be over cap, making it very hard to add any other meaningful pieces. But it is a nice starting 5.
Why didn't you include Amir Johnson's cap hold? It's $15.6 million. If you renounce him, Zeller, and Olynyk that's $33.1 million right there.
 

finnVT

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Why didn't you include Amir Johnson's cap hold? It's $15.6 million. If you renounce him, Zeller, and Olynyk that's $33.1 million right there.
Sorry, I had already removed him, so his salary being gone is already factored in.
 

Rustjive

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The cap guys on CelticsNuts pretty much shot this down as not making much sens
His article on it is out: http://www.celticshub.com/2017/06/23/paul-george-gordon-hayward-next-steps/

Essentially, the dream for Hayward + PG is dead, especially with the extension because the tax implications are enormous. PG is a viable alternative to if the Celtics miss out on Hayward, and maybe the Celtics even prefer it. These are two players that are pretty similar on the face, same age, similar height, different games but pros and cons either way, and actually looking for similarly structured compensation. The price post Jimmy Butler trade should be really low and the Celtics have cap space to make the trade happen without sending out major pieces.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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His article on it is out: http://www.celticshub.com/2017/06/23/paul-george-gordon-hayward-next-steps/

Essentially, the dream for Hayward + PG is dead, especially with the extension because the tax implications are enormous. PG is a viable alternative to if the Celtics miss out on Hayward, and maybe the Celtics even prefer it. These are two players that are pretty similar on the face, same age, similar height, different games but pros and cons either way, and actually looking for similarly structured compensation. The price post Jimmy Butler trade should be really low and the Celtics have cap space to make the trade happen without sending out major pieces.
The blanket assumption that IT will be extended in this scenario is laughable.
 

smastroyin

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Do they have info we don't about Danny's intentions with Thomas?

I'm more and more thinking that we just saw the best Thomas has to offer. And it was great and fun and I'll watch it happily for another year. But it's not enough, and it requires high usage. Therefore, if you are bringing in other high skill guys, not only do you not need Thomas as much as you do right now, you probably won't miss him as much as you think. This was always going to be the problem with Thomas, no matter what other players were in play. If you sign Thomas to a max, the team we just saw lose is basically your team until you're paying him $30 million to be Eddie House. I understand that others may project IT out more favorably.

I guess what I'm saying is that I don't see him as a max player, and it unfortunately just comes down to his size.
 

DJnVa

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The blanket assumption that IT will be extended in this scenario is laughable.
Yeah, this is the part I'm not getting. Did all that change with trading Fultz?

IT is super important now because there's not much scoring outside of him. If Hayward and PG are here that isn't a problem.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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So do you wait for July to see if Hayward signs and hope no one sneaks in to grab PG before that or do you pull the trigger on PG if he agrees to an extesnsion? If I had a reasonable deal on the table for PG and he was in agreement to an extension I'd probably pull the trigger. I absolutely love his game with this group and I like his length and defense more than Hayward
 

TheoShmeo

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So do you wait for July to see if Hayward signs and hope no one sneaks in to grab PG before that or do you pull the trigger on PG if he agrees to an extesnsion? If I had a reasonable deal on the table for PG and he was in agreement to an extension I'd probably pull the trigger. I absolutely love his game with this group and I like his length and defense more than Hayward
To me, the answer is an easy yes. I want George, assuming an extension is part of it, with or without Hayward.

Why not?
 

Light-Tower-Power

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To me, the answer is an easy yes. I want George, assuming an extension is part of it, with or without Hayward.

Why not?
I guess the argument is that you could potentially get a similar player in Hayward if he signs, but of course there is no guarantee that happens.

I also wonder if the FO knows exactly where they stand with FAs before July 1. I don't know how believable it is that they'd have no clue until after midnight on July 1.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It's a little laughable, but Ainge did signal pretty strongly with the Philly trade, no?
Not really, the league is overflowing with point guards and if you have two shot-creating wings + Horford you really just need someone who can credibly pass the ball, defend well, and hit some open shots. If Smart can stretch his free throw acumen out to the 3pt line he's pretty much the ideal candidate. If not, veteran MLE-types who can are available all the time.

edit: And if you take Ainge at his word, he simply rated Tatum higher.
 

JCizzle

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Getting way too far ahead of myself but does IT fit with a hypothetical starting 5 that includes George and Hayward?

Horford/PG/Hayward has the potential of a great defensive line up and IT would negate that. He's also a ball stopper.
Not sure I agree with the blanket statement that he's a ball stopper. He was the only creator they had last year, but his kick out passes showed advanced vision in my opinion. It just doesn't make a ton of sense to hit an open Marcus Smart when the coaching staff probably preferred a contested shot from IT.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Both George and Hayward are excellent playmakers. Horford too. If I have them in place, I'd ultimately bid adieu to IT (much as I like him) and replace him with a less ball dominant PG or combo guard who can hit threes and defend a little (basically, a cheap version of Patty Mills, Avery Bradley, Pat Beverley, George Hill, e.g.)
 

finnVT

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The more I think about it, the less appealing the idea of George+Hayward is. I mean, I'd love watching them play together, but I think it means a very short, inexperienced bench, and really restricts what they can do over the next few years (if they re-sign George). I think instead I'd still go after Hayward, and look at moving AB+Crowder, and then targeting Jamychal Green from Memphis for $10-12m. He's an RFA, but Memphis is in some cap trouble with Conley, Parsons and Gasol all signed to big, multi-year deals-- they've already got 93m committed (not including Green), and might want to re-sign Zach Randolph. They also just traded up to draft Ivan Rabb, who they might hope gives them PF depth and could take some of Green's minutes.

You could sign Hayward to max and Green ~12m, move AB and Crowder and be right at the cap with a lineup of:

Smart/DJackson
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
Green/Tatum
Horford/Zizic

And still have room to bring Yabu over, with Semi as the 12th guy.
 

soxfan121

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The more I think about it, the less appealing the idea of George+Hayward is. I mean, I'd love watching them play together, but I think it means a very short, inexperienced bench, and really restricts what they can do over the next few years (if they re-sign George). I think instead I'd still go after Hayward, and look at moving AB+Crowder, and then targeting Jamychal Green from Memphis for $10-12m. He's an RFA, but Memphis is in some cap trouble with Conley, Parsons and Gasol all signed to big, multi-year deals-- they've already got 93m committed (not including Green), and might want to re-sign Zach Randolph. They also just traded up to draft Ivan Rabb, who they might hope gives them PF depth and could take some of Green's minutes.

You could sign Hayward to max and Green ~12m, move AB and Crowder and be right at the cap with a lineup of:

Smart/DJackson
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
Green/Tatum
Horford/Zizic

And still have room to bring Yabu over, with Semi as the 12th guy.
Is there some non-Memphis (or LAC, or LAL, or SAC, or BRK) player you could target instead? Let the holders of future draft picks lie. Memphis being in cap trouble now might bode well for us later. Not to mention giving them assets which they might use to improve. Let it be.
 

boca

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Would Griffin be a better fit than Haywhatever if they get George?
 

ehaz

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Even if Danny acquired George and Hayward, couldn't he still make a play for a player like AD if he were to become available in the future? Say George signs an extension. IT leaves, you probably still have both the Nets pick and the LAL/SAC pick and can match salary with Al Horford. I don't think adding both necessarily restricts what they can do over the next few years.