Pats' WR corps

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I'd like a dedicated thread devoted to talking about the Pats' WR corps. If this should be merged with another thread, mods feel free, but I'm told that new threads are good. I think this position deserves its own discussion.

Current roster:
- Julian Edelman
- Mohamed Sanu
- N'Keal Harry
- Damiere Byrd
- Gunner Olszewski
- Quincy Adeboyejo
- Jakobi Meyers

Ok so on the surface this isn't a very imposing group at all, obviously. Here's my take on each one at the moment:

- Edelman: Still very very good. Will be interesting to see how he performs apart from Brady, but he's still quick and reliable and tough as nails. Probably doesn't have many years left and honestly, if I'm BB, I consider trading him, but if he's here, he should be good.

- Sanu: I know I'm higher on him than most here. He's always been a solid pro. And he's done well in two other systems with two other QBs (Cincy with Dalton and Atlanta with Ryan). No reason to think that, other than injury (which he had last year), he shouldn't be good. He's a solid receiver.

- Harry: Much, much potential. Good athlete, strong, good runner with the ball, good hands, can high-point balls and fight for them well. But Brady didn't trust him and we didn't see a lot out of him. I think that he could be a breakout star this year.

- Byrd: Pretty decent slot guy. 70% catch rate last year with 11.5 yards per catch. For comparison, Edelman had a 65% catch rate and averaged 11.2 yards per catch. Byrd isn't spectacular, but he is pretty solid.

- Meyers: Flashed a few moments, and his best connection was with Stidham in the preseason. Brady didn't utilize him much, but his numbers were fine. 63% catch rate isn't great but 13.5 yards per reception.

- Gunner: Another Edelman-type maybe? Shifty, quick, not blazing speed, seems tough. Yes, small white guy comparison warning, but he seems to have some of the same tools.

- Adeboyejo: Nothing to report from his pro career. Here's a link to his college scouting report: http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/quincy-adeboyejo?id=2557843 There's enough there to be intrigued by, but also not a lot to go on.

I have no reason to think the Pats won't try to add players at this position. But if they're healthy (a big IF), Edelman, San, Harry, Meyers, and Byrd probably are a decent WR corps. They lack a dynamic player though, which could be a problem. Harry *might* be able to be that, but has a lot of improvement to make. I'll be interested to see how Meyers develops with Stidham, given their chemistry during last year's preseason. I think Edelman has another good year in him. They add a really good WR in the draft (there are lots to be had) and this position could be greatly improved. Stidham will need all the weapons he can get. Would be great if Gunner could develop into the next great Pats' slot receiver - not optimistic about that, but man that would be nice, because Edelman probably doesn't have many more years left. Would be great to get a lot younger at that position, and to have the next Brown/Welker/Edelman.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think our WR corps will be fine.

Edelman is a low-end #1, Sanu is a good 3rd WR. The question is at 2. Harry is supposed to be the answer there (while eventually taking over from Edelman as the #1) last year was rough because there was a lot of turnover, and Brady is notorious for not throwing to guys he doesn;t trust yet.

Also helpful is that this draft class of WRs is amazing. I'd expect at least 1 or 2 additions and a lot of competition for the 5-6 slots.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Percy Harvin trying to make a comeback to the NFL...he was linked to BB for years, before he flamed out with his myriad of issues.
 

Super Nomario

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- Harry: Much, much potential. Good athlete, strong, good runner with the ball, good hands, can high-point balls and fight for them well. But Brady didn't trust him and we didn't see a lot out of him. I think that he could be a breakout star this year.
- Meyers: Flashed a few moments, and his best connection was with Stidham in the preseason. Brady didn't utilize him much, but his numbers were fine. 63% catch rate isn't great but 13.5 yards per reception.
I think it's unreasonable to single out Brady for these guys being underutilized. He threw to them when they were on the field. Brady didn't hurt Harry's ankle or decide to IR him. Brady didn't trade for Sanu and bench Meyers down the stretch. This looks like way more of a Belichick thing (he frequently limits rookie playing time at all positions) than a Brady thing to me.

There are two more issues you didn't really get into. Edelman is old and injury-prone. Sanu is old, and spent a decent amount of last year dinged up. Even if they're an acceptable top two (debatable), it's unclear how many games of 100% health you get out of them.

The second issue is that this is a poorly-assembled group. Arguably every receiver on the roster is better in the slot. Edelman is a slot, Sanu is a slot, Meyers is a slot. Harry was terrible against press in college and didn't look any better as rookie; much of his college production was in the slot. Byrd actually played mostly outside but he's a lot smaller than you typically see there. One of their problems last year was that they had an all-slot-WR receiving group once they waived Gordon, and that forced them to play guys like Dorsett and Harry outside a lot. They haven't fixed that problem at all. Even if you think Harry will improve outside, there's zero depth behind him.
 

BaseballJones

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Brady went on the Howard Stern show and talked openly about not trusting in, or throwing to, certain guys.

From: https://weei.radio.com/blogs/ryan-hannable/tom-brady-explains-how-he-didnt-trust-some-wide-receivers

I would say, ‘I don’t have any trust that this guy can help us win the game,’" he said Wednesday on The Howard Stern Show. “I’ve definitely expressed my opinion to say, ‘If you put him out there, I’m not going to throw him the ball.’ The whole team is trusting me to do what’s right by the team, so you can’t put someone out there who I don’t believe in. Because if I don’t believe in him, it’s worthless for the team."

Straight from the horse's mouth.

And I did get into the injury issues. I said, "if they're healthy (a big IF), Edelman, San, Harry, Meyers, and Byrd probably are a decent WR corps". That's a clear reference (though I could have been more clear I suppose) to Edelman, Sanu, and Harry's injuries last year.
 

tims4wins

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Personally, I am very intrigued by Meyers. He had great chemistry with Stidham during the preseason last year, but Brady didn't throw to him a ton. I could see Meyers developing into his security blanket.
 
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E5 Yaz

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One thing to keep in mind: Harry and Meyers, and Gunner, got a lot of work in with Stidham in the preseason and in practices during the regular season. We have little to no idea how those guys worked together.

So, to a degree, you can't truly judge them -- or the veterans -- based on how they performed with Brady.
 

bakahump

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I love Edelman, but I will go on record now as saying I dont think he has a good season. One reason, perhaps the main reason he was so good was the "chemistry" with him and Brady. To put that in tangible words....they knew where Edelman should be and what he should do on every play.

While Stidham may eventually get to a respectable level I doubt it happens early. Which will hurt Edelmans overall production. I am saying 800 yards and 65-75 catches. A fine year, but not EDELMAN. Especially if we dont see some significant progress/incoming players. If we thought Ds who could focus on Edelman was smothering when we had Brady, wait till we dont.
 

tims4wins

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I love Edelman, but I will go on record now as saying I dont think he has a good season. One reason, perhaps the main reason he was so good was the "chemistry" with him and Brady. To put that in tangible words....they knew where Edelman should be and what he should do on every play.

While Stidham may eventually get to a respectable level I doubt it happens early. Which will hurt Edelmans overall production. I am saying 800 yards and 65-75 catches. A fine year, but not EDELMAN. Especially if we dont see some significant progress/incoming players. If we thought Ds who could focus on Edelman was smothering when we had Brady, wait till we dont.
FWIW, Edelman caught 14 passes on 17 targets for 142 yards in the Arizona / Miami games back in 2016 with Jimmy at QB. That projects to a pretty good season. Even throwing in the Houston game with a healthy Brissett it was 18 catches on 23 targets for 180 yards. So I'm not sure the argument really holds water.
 

Super Nomario

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Personally, I am very intrigued by Meyers. He had great chemistry with Stidham during the preseason last year, but Brady didn't throw to him a ton. I could see Meyers developing into his security blanket.
Brady threw to him plenty, when he was on the field. Belichick benched him for Sanu.
 

tims4wins

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Brady threw to him plenty, when he was on the field. Belichick benched him for Sanu.
Didn't Sanu get hurt in Baltimore? Meyers didn't play that game, but then played 19-52-61-37 snaps the next four games. Then the final 3 games he played 7-14-7. It was pretty odd.

Edit: and yes he had 41 targets on 416 snaps which seems like a pretty good ratio (10.15 snaps / target)

By comparison Edelman was 153 targets in 1,004 snaps (6.56 snaps / target)
 

E5 Yaz

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I love Edelman, but I will go on record now as saying I dont think he has a good season. One reason, perhaps the main reason he was so good was the "chemistry" with him and Brady. To put that in tangible words....they knew where Edelman should be and what he should do on every play.

While Stidham may eventually get to a respectable level I doubt it happens early. Which will hurt Edelmans overall production. I am saying 800 yards and 65-75 catches. A fine year, but not EDELMAN. Especially if we dont see some significant progress/incoming players. If we thought Ds who could focus on Edelman was smothering when we had Brady, wait till we dont.
Unless, of course, Edelman is catching passes this season from Matthew Stafford ... or Jimmy G
 

Super Nomario

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Didn't Sanu get hurt in Baltimore? Meyers didn't play that game, but then played 19-52-61-37 snaps the next four games. Then the final 3 games he played 7-14-7. It was pretty odd.

Edit: and yes he had 41 targets on 416 snaps which seems like a pretty good ratio (10.15 snaps / target)

By comparison Edelman was 153 targets in 1,004 snaps (6.56 snaps / target)
Yeah he didn't get targeted as much as Edelman or White. For obvious reasons. But he was targeted a reasonable amount, in line with Gordon and Dorsett and Harry.

Meyers actually played 0 snaps against the Titans after the 7-14-7. But I'm not surprised, because Belichick often sits youngsters in big spots. Chase Winovich only played 2 snaps vs Tennessee.
 

Cellar-Door

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Unless, of course, Edelman is catching passes this season from Matthew Stafford ... or Jimmy G
I wonder if anyone will give the value you need for him. He's on a good deal and you probably get 2 years out of him then a 5th comp pick if he doesn't retire (maybe a 4th?).

Though if you are trading him you want to wait until after June 1 probably. Save an extra $2.7M or so off the cap.
 

bakahump

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@tims4wins and @E5 Yaz

Fair enough. But He WONT be catching anything from Jimmy G or Brissett. Stafford....maybe I guess...like a 10% chance. Likely its Stidham. Which is what I said in my post. Also even if they do bring in Stafford or similar, you again assume that Edelman will have instant Chemistry with "New Guy".

We will see if my argument holds water.
 

tims4wins

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@tims4wins and @E5 Yaz

Fair enough. But He WONT be catching anything from Jimmy G or Brissett. Stafford....maybe I guess...like a 10% chance. Likely its Stidham. Which is what I said in my post. Also even if they do bring in Stafford or similar, you again assume that Edelman will have instant Chemistry with "New Guy".

We will see if my argument holds water.
Why would his chemistry with Stidham be significantly different than with Jimmy back in 2016?
 

bakahump

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Wow Strawman much?
How about
1. We are not sure how good Stidham is. He may, you know, actually suck....or be good...or something in between. He really is unknown. Which is not confidence inspiring and probably SHOULD indicate that there would be a substantial drop off from a regular Joe like Brady to Essentially an untested Rookie. Like almost every rookie ever. But I guess its because he missed a pass against the Jets....
2.Jimmy G has since proven to be an above average NFL QB. So we now know looking back that he was probably a pretty good QB even in 2016. We have no such indication about Stidham. If we knew that Stidham would have 20+ above average Starts under his belt then I might be a little less anxious about Edelman continuing to put up @900-1000 yards and @95 catches.
3. Stidham has less experience then Jimmy G had in 2016. I would assume that an additional year in the system might help Jimmy G get closer to being on the same page with Edelman. It was also well established that Jimmy was the starter of the season. While Stidham way well be in some form of competition. So reps may be harder to come by.

I cant believe you both are really arguing that Edelman may suffer from playing with a different QB then Tom Brady. Or, and I didnt mention this in the earlier post cause I figured it was pretty well known, that he might decline because he will be 34. I didnt say the ONLY reason his production would suffer would be Chemistry. I said one of. I also said it might be the biggest, as I feel that IF he had another season with Brady, 900-1000ish yds and 90+ catches was possible barring injury.

We can agree to disagree. But I dont believe Snark is necessary or warranted in this case.

I am interested, What is your projection for Edelman?
 

tims4wins

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Well first, I haven't shown any snark.

Assuming 16 games, I think that he would probably catch ~75-90 passes for some ~800-1,000 yards and 3-6 TDs, somewhere in that range. But I probably would have said something similar if Brady were still here too.