Pats vs. Falcons discussion
- Thread starter DJnVa
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I am a Cordarrelle fan; the man has had a really unique and interesting career.
That said, I can live with this.
Cordarelle scares the hell out of me, so, while I’m not happy he’s hurt, this would help. Atlanta has such limited depth of talent at skill positions that this is a notable blow.
Kyle Pitts may get the Tony Gonzalez treatment at times in this game.
Kyle Pitts may get the Tony Gonzalez treatment at times in this game.
Unless there's something I can't recall, I don't believe the Patriots had any major injuries vs the Browns, which is especially great considering the short turn around.
The bad news of the Thursday game is there's not a lot of additional time for Harris and Gunner to recover.
The bad news of the Thursday game is there's not a lot of additional time for Harris and Gunner to recover.
I hope they're both ok, but Harris getting a couple weeks off after the pounding he's taken this year wouldn't be a bad thing to keep him fresh for later in the year, even with the bye in Week 13 coming up as well. He's done some hard running.
Yeah one of the nice things about the timing of the TNF game is that they get the mini-bye this weekend, and then another by in week 14 (it's week 14, not 13). Which should leave the pretty well rested for the final four games, which includes @ Indy and vs. Buf.
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Gunner’s absence was problematic as Meyers let too many of those punts bounce. I’m not worried about Harris though. If he can’t suit up Dodge will take his spot and be fine.
Matchup wise this is an insanely good game for the Pats. Falcons are light in both trenches. I imagine the Pats dish out another 150+ yards running while terrorizing Ryan all day. The Falcons skilled players are not anyone special minus Pitts but he’s a rookie and the Cowboys out a physical corner on him and shut him down most of the day. Sure the defense could have a game like they did against Houston but given how consistent they have been throughout the season I expect a fairly comfortable Patriots win.
And the mini bye affords extra prep time heading into the Tennessee game on the 28th. Right now the combination scheduling and struggling opponents is a plus.
Good point.
Edit: on top of this, their real bye comes after the MNF Bills game, so they avoid a short week.
Double edit: after Thursday, the Pats get 10, 8, and 13 day breaks between their next games.
One other point - the Pats have been phenomenal on TNF. They lost last year at the Rams. Aside from that the only loss on Thursday in the last like 20 years was the 2017 season opener, which I would argue doesn't count. I think they went roughly 10-0 from 2002-2019 including Thanksgiving games.
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Everyone loves the butt fumble but my favorite play from that game was the next TD, the Edelman kickoff return*.
That ~45 second stretch of Vereen 75 yard td on a screen, buttfumble first play after ensuing kickoff, then Edelman return on the next kickoff was probably the most enjoyable minute of football I’ve ever seen from a pure entertainment perspective
It’s wild to remember how Do Your Job-y Jules was before Welker left. Dude did it all before he became the best slot receiver in the game.
How many yards did Meyers give up simply by not getting to those punts in time to fiat catch? To say nothing of the yardage that he wasn’t gaining that Gunner would have?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200811130nwe.htm
Lost in Overtime in 08 to the Brett Favre Jets.
I remember that game-tying Moss catch being incredible.
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Here's an awesome angle I hadn't seen before.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbWSVrb37Uc
He just jogs into the end zone like he’s not remotely part of the play, and falls over with the touchdown. Amazing.
That's great news, Olszewski in particular since he seems to have a singular talent for punt returning.
Actually, both are really great news. Harris is pretty good, and we don't need Rhamondré taking all thebeatings reps
Actually, both are really great news. Harris is pretty good, and we don't need Rhamondré taking all the
Ok. That is valid. Now, why are you nervous? What do the Falcons do that makes you feel this way? Is it the short week? Are you worried about a bit of rookie season mistakes/regression from Mac? Do you feel the NE Defense won't be prepared? If so, why?
I'd quibble with TomTerrific's comment as well. However, I would add context and provide some commentary.
Not picking on either of you, just jumping off here. Plenty of conversation to have on these topics. As a board, let's keep the conversations moving and not regress to these type of short, content free responses.
Thanks.
Do you think I'm underselling him? I thought I was being slightly generous in that he is most likely not even in the top 20 RBs in the league this year, however you wish to measure it.
Gunner, OTOH, is quite possibly the best in the NFL right now in punt returning. Yes, having the best punt returner is not as valuable as having the best RB. But they are quite different, IMO, as to where they stand in their respective positions.
Despite being hurt, he's currently #11 in the NFL in rushing yards (547), and tied at #4 in rushing TD (7). He's also tied at #4 in the number of 20+ yard gains (5).
So by those three measurements, he's at a minimum a top 11 RB in the league.
My nerves are a combination of things. Some of it is just general sports nerves. I want the Pats to win, and they've been playing well recently, but I'm invested so I don't want things to go badly. I think a short week is always a bit of a randomizer, my head says BB will have the Pats better prepared than the Falcons.
I also worry a bit about Mac, he's earned my trust, but he's still a rookie so I can still picture lots of things going wrong. I am really glad to see that he's cut down on the bonehead plays we saw in the beginning of the year, I don't think I've seen him do anything really crazy in the grasp of a defender in 4 weeks or so.
The O line is also generically a concern, they've been better but if things fall apart there it could get messy.
I actually feel pretty good about the D, they've rounded into form pretty nicely, whatever the reason.
I also worry a bit about Mac, he's earned my trust, but he's still a rookie so I can still picture lots of things going wrong. I am really glad to see that he's cut down on the bonehead plays we saw in the beginning of the year, I don't think I've seen him do anything really crazy in the grasp of a defender in 4 weeks or so.
The O line is also generically a concern, they've been better but if things fall apart there it could get messy.
I actually feel pretty good about the D, they've rounded into form pretty nicely, whatever the reason.
It's not logical, it's growing up a Boston sports fan. In my mind when people start talking about the team in a good light I expect them to go out and fall flat on there face. Yes there has been 20 years of insane success, but my formative sports watching years can never be beaten out of me.
And yes young QB, Thursday night and some weird results recently (Jax/Buf, Mia/Balt, Jets/Cincy) have me extra on edge for an upset.
I would submit that rushing TDs and 20+ yard gains are not very useful stats given the small sample sizes and dependencies (LGBT says hello). But yes, rushing yards means something, so that's a fair point by you.
I would note that he is at 4.1 yds/attempt to get those yards, which is good but not great (last year he was at 5.0, but that was a run-oriented team). However, more convincing to me, FO has him at 7th in effective yards with 479.
OK, all the above considered, I'd say you're probably more in the right here than I am.
I think I am nervous because this NFL season has been so strange. Would you have believed the fetid corpse that is the Miami Dolphins could beat Baltimore last week? Smith and Pees are excellent game planners. Anything is possible.
I think I read somewhere that Harris averages 3.1 yards after contact, good for 9th in the league. However, since his second fumble he is only averaging 2.3 YAC and some of that is likely due to ball security. I'd sacrifice the extra yards for better TOP any day.
I read that the Dolphins used a safety blitz on 36% of defensive plays and blitzed on more than 70% of all defensive snaps and that did a few things to the Baltimore offense: Destroyed Jackson's time to throw; flooded the box and stopped the run; flooded the box and established edges and kept Jackson from running and forcing him into throwing before receivers ran their routes. All incredibly effective.
The Falcons have an offense that will be hurt by the loss of Calvin Ridley and the expected loss of Cordarrelle Patterson. Matt Ryan is having a pretty good year, throwing for 2,274 yards and 15/8 TD/INT ratio. Their running game is led by Mike Davis who only averages 3.3 YPC. Kyle Pitts is their only real explosive offensive skill guy that will play on Thursday. If they're in man, I'd expect to either see JC Jackson 1-on-1 against him or bracket coverage with a linebacker on the line and Kyle Dugger over the top. They will miss Patterson in both phases of the offense as he leads the team with 303 yards(3.9 YPC) and is 2nd on the team with 39 catches and a team-leading 5 TDs. Hayden Hurst was a theoretical DNP yesterday.
In other words, this is a great matchup for the Patriots.
The Falcons somehow are sniffing the playoffs yet they are dead last in DVOA.
In other words, this is a great matchup for the Patriots.
The Falcons somehow are sniffing the playoffs yet they are dead last in DVOA.
Any given Thursday and all, but this is a favorable matchup for the Pats. They didn't let success get to their heads during the last 20 years, and I don't expect to see it happen on Thursday either.
@Dogman they ran cover 0 against them like 40+ times. It was insane. You have to throw over the coverage to beat that and they just didn’t. Didn’t adjust to it at all.
Not sure why anyone is nervous about Thursday. This is as good a matchup as you can get on both sides of the ball. TNF has this reputation for crazy results but the numbers have never backed that up. There are numerous gambling articles you can google. On the mobile can’t link but just google TNF and gambling and you’ll see favorites win at an even higher rate than normal depending on the years you look at it or just normal rates but nothing crazy. More injuries might happen but not upsets.
Not sure why anyone is nervous about Thursday. This is as good a matchup as you can get on both sides of the ball. TNF has this reputation for crazy results but the numbers have never backed that up. There are numerous gambling articles you can google. On the mobile can’t link but just google TNF and gambling and you’ll see favorites win at an even higher rate than normal depending on the years you look at it or just normal rates but nothing crazy. More injuries might happen but not upsets.
NFL Week 11: Patriots - Falcons Injury Report
For Atlanta, Patterson listed as limited. Pitts backup, Hurst, was a DNP.
For Atlanta, Patterson listed as limited. Pitts backup, Hurst, was a DNP.
Yeah, just crazy that they did not adjust. Was looking for go routes and they never materialized. They simply called for 3-5 step outs and jet sweeps and with the blitzes, the Dolphins had 7-9 men near the line at all times and stopped it all easily. Just ridiculous.
Yeah I was just responding to your point that "he is most likely not even in the top 20 RBs in the league this year, however you wish to measure it".
So I gave several measurements that show that he is in fact very much in the top 20 - and most likely top 10.
He's not elite, but he's pretty good. I do wonder if, at the end of the day, Rhamondre Stevenson is better.
And they have some guys that can run, especially, for all his faults, Hollywood Brown. Miami’s outside corners are very good, but come on.
A fair question, and one I've wondered myself. At the moment, I'm just happy we'll likely have both of them plus Gunner for the Atlanta game.
I admit to being slightly concerned that the Falcons will be easy to overlook, especially after all the praise the Pats are receiving this week.
Yes I am too. I think the record shows that in the NFL, any team can beat any other team on the right day. You just never know. So the Pats need to come out well prepared and play a good game. If they do that, they should win. But we all know that it doesn't always happen, even to good teams. I mean, the WFT just smacked Tampa Bay around pretty good, and Jacksonville beat Buffalo last week. The NFL is crazy, and as a fan you have a right to be concerned about this game.
[QUOTE="TomTerrific, post: 4740708, member:
l.
I admit to being slightly concerned that the Falcons will be easy to overlook, especially after all the praise the Pats are receiving this week.
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l.
I admit to being slightly concerned that the Falcons will be easy to overlook, especially after all the praise the Pats are receiving this week.
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Yeah, technically anyone can win this game, and it has certainly been 'that kind of season' so far, but if there is a game to feel good about, it's this one. ATL is a bottom-5 team in the league, and depending on which flavor of advanced stats you like they might be in the running for worst overall. Banged up, lacking in skill players on both sides of the ball, mediocre coaching and QB play, and coming off an absolute pasting by the Cowboys into a short week wouldn't inspire confidence in me if I were a Falcons fan. Can't take it for granted, but this should be close to a gimme if the Pats are as good as we think they are.