We all know that the Pats have relatively limited cap space this offseason. What's perhaps less understood is the extant to which our cap picture is currently slated to improve in 2015. This has the potentially to really affect our decision making process this offseason, so I thought it was worth a deeper dive and a little analysis.
As a quick and dirty look, we can start with all players under contract for 2015, cut a couple obvious veterans (Sopoaga, A. Wilson) and disregard a bunch of marginal practice squad fodder who currently have non-guaranteed deals with little to no dead money and very little chance of making the team. Then assume Solder's 2015 option is picked up for about $7M and factor in money to sign the 2014 and 2015 draft/UDFA classes (I'm assuming that seven guys from each class make the final roster for 2015). This leaves us with:
[tablegrid= 2015 Salary Cap Projection ]Name Base Prorated Roster Workout Cap Dead Cap Salary Bonus Bonus Bonus Number Money Savings Tom Brady $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $0 $0 $13,000,000 $18,000,000 ($5,000,000) Logan Mankins $6,750,000 $4,000,000 $0 $250,000 $11,000,000 $4,000,000 $7,000,000 Jerod Mayo $6,250,000 $3,600,000 $500,000 $250,000 $10,600,000 $6,000,000 $4,600,000 Rob Gronkowski $4,750,000 $3,650,000 $0 $250,000 $8,650,000 $13,300,000 ($4,650,000) Nate Solder $7,000,000 Sebastian Vollmer $2,250,000 $1,750,000 $1,937,500 $0 $5,937,500 $3,500,000 $2,437,500 Danny Amendola $4,000,000 $1,200,000 $500,000 $0 $5,700,000 $3,600,000 $2,100,000 Kyle Arrington $3,000,000 $1,625,000 $0 $0 $4,625,000 $3,250,000 $1,375,000 Rob Ninkovich $2,100,000 $1,250,000 $250,000 $100,000 $3,700,000 $2,500,000 $1,200,000 Chandler Jones $1,504,568 $1,096,091 $0 $0 $2,600,659 $1,848,375 $752,284 Donta Hightower $1,443,273 $1,014,364 $0 $0 $2,457,637 $1,014,364 $1,443,273 Tavon Wilson $965,166 $376,891 $0 $0 $1,342,057 $376,891 $965,166 Jamie Collins $746,910 $278,818 $0 $0 $1,025,728 $557,636 $468,092 Aaron Dobson $716,670 $218,340 $0 $0 $935,010 $436,680 $498,330 Jake Bequette $660,000 $134,950 $0 $5,000 $799,950 $134,950 $665,000 Logan Ryan $585,000 $140,813 $0 $0 $745,813 $281,626 $464,187 Duron Harmon $585,000 $133,400 $0 $6,000 $724,400 $266,800 $457,600 Josh Boyce $585,000 $119,250 $0 $0 $704,250 $238,500 $465,750 Nate Ebner $660,000 $24,150 $0 $0 $684,150 $24,150 $660,000 Alfonzo Dennard $660,000 $14,462 $0 $0 $674,462 $14,462 $660,000 Marcus Forston $660,000 $0 $0 $0 $660,000 $0 $660,000 Michael Buchanan $585,000 $13,403 $0 $0 $598,403 $26,806 $571,597 Steve Beauharnais $585,000 $11,898 $0 $0 $596,898 $23,796 $573,102 Kenbrell Thompkins $585,000 $834 $0 $0 $585,834 $834 $585,000 Ryan Allen $585,000 $500 $0 $0 $585,500 $500 $585,000 Armon Armstead $585,000 $0 $0 $0 $585,000 $0 $585,000 Kanorris Davis $585,000 $0 $0 $0 $585,000 $0 $585,000 Josh Kline $585,000 $0 $0 $0 $585,000 $0 $585,000 Chris Jones $585,000 $0 $0 $0 $585,000 $0 $585,000 Joe Vellano $585,000 $0 $0 $0 $585,000 $0 $585,000 Dead money $341,170 2014 Draftees $6,500,000 2015 Draftees $5,500,000 $51,136,587 $101,199,421
That is 30 players under contract plus an estimated fourteen more from the 2014-15 draft/UDFA classes, so about 44 players costing $101M. The 2015 salary cap is projected to be about $140M (not factoring in any team rollover). Put aside $5M for practice squad guys and wiggle room and we're talking about $34M in cap space with only nine spots or so open on the 53 man roster. Obviously some of the guys in the table above won't make the 2015 roster but the dead money will be minimal from most of those cuts. Note too that we could save a further $7M in 2015 by cutting Mankins and that this is in the ballpark of what McCourty's cap hit is likely to be if we extend him. So you could just as well substitute McCourty for Mankins and the number of players and total money committed wouldn't change all that much.
The bottom line is that we really do have a lot of flexibility. Hypothetically, we could definitely sign Talib to a 4/44ish deal that basically guarantees two years, have a palatable hit this in the $6-8M range this year, and knock like a $12M cap charge into 2015 without too much of a problem. Then the third year is either a chunk of dead money or another cap hit in the same range. Or we could conserve the space and be well positioned to be major players in free agency in 2015. The overall point is that the prospect of paying the "market rate" for Talib or Edelman or whoever needs to be seen in light of the future cap picture, not just in terms of how our cap looks for 2014.
As a quick and dirty look, we can start with all players under contract for 2015, cut a couple obvious veterans (Sopoaga, A. Wilson) and disregard a bunch of marginal practice squad fodder who currently have non-guaranteed deals with little to no dead money and very little chance of making the team. Then assume Solder's 2015 option is picked up for about $7M and factor in money to sign the 2014 and 2015 draft/UDFA classes (I'm assuming that seven guys from each class make the final roster for 2015). This leaves us with:
[tablegrid= 2015 Salary Cap Projection ]
That is 30 players under contract plus an estimated fourteen more from the 2014-15 draft/UDFA classes, so about 44 players costing $101M. The 2015 salary cap is projected to be about $140M (not factoring in any team rollover). Put aside $5M for practice squad guys and wiggle room and we're talking about $34M in cap space with only nine spots or so open on the 53 man roster. Obviously some of the guys in the table above won't make the 2015 roster but the dead money will be minimal from most of those cuts. Note too that we could save a further $7M in 2015 by cutting Mankins and that this is in the ballpark of what McCourty's cap hit is likely to be if we extend him. So you could just as well substitute McCourty for Mankins and the number of players and total money committed wouldn't change all that much.
The bottom line is that we really do have a lot of flexibility. Hypothetically, we could definitely sign Talib to a 4/44ish deal that basically guarantees two years, have a palatable hit this in the $6-8M range this year, and knock like a $12M cap charge into 2015 without too much of a problem. Then the third year is either a chunk of dead money or another cap hit in the same range. Or we could conserve the space and be well positioned to be major players in free agency in 2015. The overall point is that the prospect of paying the "market rate" for Talib or Edelman or whoever needs to be seen in light of the future cap picture, not just in terms of how our cap looks for 2014.
