Pats Roster Planning: Defense

scottyno · Nov 2, 2020

I know most people here are probably ready to shove Cam out the door, but I think with him it really depends on what changed between the first 3 games and his performance after that and why. The Cam of the first 3 games is someone you can win games with, with a good defense and run game, the Cam of the Denver and San Fran games is a guy that you aren't going anywhere with. Did he hurt his shoulder, is it some sort of issue post covid or is he just cooked? The fact that despite the last 2 weeks he was still the qb today over Stidham should tell you enough about Stidham that the pats don't think he's the answer or he'd already be playing. I could see bringing Cam back on a bridge 2 year contract to start until whoever they think actually is the future qb is ready.

j-man · Nov 23, 2020

what u guys need is this

1 TE'S pass catching
2 WR'S bryd is a 3 or 4 on a super bowl team
3 EDGE/DE
4 LB
5 K
6 FS
7 CB

JokersWildJIMED · Nov 23, 2020

j-man said:
what u guys need is this

1 TE'S pass catching
2 WR'S bryd is a 3 or 4 on a super bowl team
3 EDGE/DE
4 LB
5 K
6 FS
7 CB

Might want to add a QB somewhere near the top.

j-man · Nov 23, 2020

JokersWildJIMED said:
Might want to add a QB somewhere near the top.

the highest i wouild is 4th i think cam will sign a 2y 20 mil deal with like 14 gut

DourDoerr · Nov 23, 2020

They're not re-signing Cam. They've seen enough and they'll play out this string at best. He's not good at what the Pats like to do and he can't play to his strengths anymore. I'd go QB 1, and DT 2. They just spent a lot of draft capital on TE's.

shoosh77 · Nov 24, 2020

Calling it here, Brady and Tampa part ways and he comes back for one more run with a clean cap and lots of picks. SuperBowl and then retire.

E5 Yaz · Dec 17, 2020

shoosh77 said:
Calling it here, Brady and Tampa part ways and he comes back for one more run with a clean cap and lots of picks. SuperBowl and then retire.

Reading through the UFAs, I am thinking that James White and/or David Andrews wind up in orange

BigSoxFan · Dec 17, 2020

E5 Yaz said:
Reading through the UFAs, I am thinking that James White and/or David Andrews wind up in orange

If I’m Miami, I’m landing one of the stud RBs in the first round in Etienne, Harris, Hubbard, Williams, etc. and then signing White. With the Houston draft capital, they can afford to do so and it would really open up their offense.

E5 Yaz · Dec 17, 2020

BigSoxFan said:
If I’m Miami, I’m landing one of the stud RBs in the first round in Etienne, Harris, Hubbard, Williams, etc. and then signing White.

Perhaps, but White (or pre-injury Burkhead) is exactly the back Brady needs.

BigSoxFan · Dec 17, 2020

E5 Yaz said:
Perhaps, but White (or pre-injury Burkhead) is exactly the back Brady needs.

Agreed. I see a FL competition developing for White. Miami will be able to offer more money and Brady will be like 44 so White will have a decision to make. Either way, he’d be in a much better situation than in NE.

Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt · Dec 17, 2020

I'd hate to see White leave, but given the situation with his family, I think signing a deal with Miami or TB would be good for him, especially to be close to his mom.

SMU_Sox · Dec 17, 2020

First off, thank you, @RedOctober3829

Let's look at who they have on the roster next year: Harris, Sony, Bolden, and JJ Taylor.
2022: Harris, Sony if they activate his 5th year option worth around 4m, Taylor.

With White and Rex as UFA's this year and Bolden set to leave after 2021 (He will be 33 in 2022) they are going to lose their veteran leadership as well as 2 STers and all around backs in Bolden and Rex. White is an incredible receiving back/3rd down back.

I see them needing 2-4 types of backs: 1) White is getting older/is-an-UFA and they need to draft another receiving back. 2) They could also use an outside runner, a faster runner - someone who can run outside zone or off-tackle well. 3) STer with an all-around skill-set. Or STer with a specific skill-set. 4) a between the tackles runner to replace Sony. Sony has one year left on the team.

2 and 4 are the easiest to project to the next level.
There is overlap between skills and some backs will be in more than one category.

Here are the backs in the draft that would fill those roles. I have 5-10 backs to go.

1 - the receiving/receiver down back:
1) Demetric Felton - He runs routes like a WR. He has sick double moves, fakes, and overall deception in his routes is excellent. He can run outside zone but at 185 pounds he isn't a between the tackles guy. His pass pro also suffers because of his size. He is a better receiver and route runner than Davis but Davis is an overall better runner and in pass pro.
2a) Pooka Williams
2b) Malik Davis

2 - the outside zone/faster back:
1) Michael Carter - I have been beating the drum for him for a while now. He is the perfect compliment to Harris' inside prowess.
2) Kenneth Gainwell - He is a mini-Etienne. Home-run threat. His vision is iffy and he is only 190.
3) Malik Davis
4) Jermar Jefferson
5) Pooka Willianms
6) Javian Hawkins

3 - all - around back and/or STer:
1) Keaontay Ingram - patient with good vision. Nice cuts. Has an issue with his hands as a receiver
2) Chuba Hubbard (Hubbard's receiving skills and pass pro are... well undeveloped or poor). He has some of the best decision making and vision I have seen. He can run any scheme. However he is a little light at 206, he isn't a super athlete and his complimentary skills are lacking. I had to put him somewhere though.
3) Trey Sermon
4) Jaret Patterson - reminds me of a slightly more athletic Devin Singeltary.
5) Kylin Hill
6) Max Borghi
7) Rakeem Boyd

4 - the inside runner:
1a) Zamir White - Reminds me of Harris' with the way he can attack guys downhill and bulldoze them.
1b) Master Teague - best pass-pro of all runners. Inside the tackles power runner like Zamir White.
3) JaTarvious Whitlow
4) Khalil Herbert
5) C.J. Verdell
6) Mohammed Ibrahim
7) Kennedy Brooks
8) Stephen Carr

I don't think they take a starting back so I am not going to include Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Javonte Williams. Etienne is not a between the tackles runner unless it is gap/power. Etienne is an outside zone or gap/power only runner. Harris is scheme versatile and is probably the best all around back in the class. He routinely lines up out wide too. Javonte Williams is a riser. He is also scheme versatile but would excel between the tackles where he can use his power.

EDIT: TL;DR: If I had to pick 2 I would take an outside guy Michael Carter (HM Kenneth Gainwell), and a receiver-RB, Demetric Felton. Felton is definitely going to be available day 3 and probably late (he might even be a UDFA). Carter might need to be taken sometime in round 3. Impossible to know now - going off of what I am hearing from NFL-tied to guys.

Captaincoop · Dec 17, 2020

Nothing would be more "f you, I'm Bill Belichick" than taking a RB with their first pick. Mark it down, that's happening...

SMU_Sox · Dec 17, 2020

Captaincoop said:
Nothing would be more "f you, I'm Bill Belichick" than taking a RB with their first pick. Mark it down, that's happening...

The funny thing is if they took Etienne that would be a scheme fit and a home run swing. Etienne is also someone who is your explosive lightning to Thunder (Harris). I’m not saying I want BB to draft him but if they did it might be the first time he selected an RB in the first where it worked out.

I doubt he does that though. The team was much more complete in 2006 and 2018 than it is now.

E5 Yaz · Dec 18, 2020

Captaincoop said:
Nothing would be more "f you, I'm Bill Belichick" than taking a RB with their first pick. Mark it down, that's happening...

The judges were looking for FB

Captaincoop · Jan 4, 2021

Is Marquise Lee part of the solution in terms of improving WR? Don't know much about him.

Super Nomario · Jan 4, 2021

Captaincoop said:
Is Marquise Lee part of the solution in terms of improving WR? Don't know much about him.

He basically hasn't played in 3 seasons so I'm going with no.

BaseballJones · Jan 4, 2021

jsinger121 said:
Jacobi Meyers is a keeper. 59 catches, 729 yards. No TD receptions but had 2 TD passes.

So is Byrd. 47 rec, 604 yds, 12.9 y/c

Neither is a WR1, but both are legitimate NFL receivers. The Pats need guys like this. They'll get even more favorable matchups if the Pats land a true WR1 this offseason.

bsj · Jan 4, 2021

There is no one on the current roster who is a legit #1, nor likely a 2 either. Meyers is a nice depth option. But the best case scenario I can see is signing a FA #1, drafting a #2, having Edelman back as the slot guy, and then filling out the roster with Jakobi, Gunner, Lee, and Byrd.

Captaincoop · Jan 4, 2021

It will be surprising if Edelman comes back to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Byrd and Jakobi may be low end #2s, but IMO neither needs to be pushed to #4, at least not on a team with numerous gaping holes.

They absolutely need a WR1, and if Julian doesn't come back they should throw Gunner, a cheap FA flyer, and/or a day 3 pick out there at slot in camp and see what sticks.

Use the rest of the money and draft picks elsewhere (D Line, LB, QB...)

Super Nomario · Jan 4, 2021

Note that Byrd is a FA.

E5 Yaz · Jan 4, 2021

doubling up with what Red did in the opening post, Kyed sets the depth chart, w/o free agents
https://nesn.com/2021/01/how-patriots-depth-chart-stacks-up-removing-2021-free-agents/

Captaincoop · Jan 4, 2021

Super Nomario said:
Note that Byrd is a FA.

Forgot about that. But doing a bit of a dive into the FA market - he shouldn't be expensive to retain. Looks like a deeper FA class than last year and he's not going to show up statistically higher than the 50-75 range among NFL wide receivers (and likely lower than that). Can't imagine the cost will be prohibitive if Bill wants him back.

The top 15 guys are going to get contracts much higher than 1m/yr if the past few years are a guide. I haven't tried to rank the FAs, but he's probably not in that group.

Shelterdog · Jan 4, 2021

Captaincoop said:
It will be surprising if Edelman comes back to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Byrd and Jakobi may be low end #2s, but IMO neither needs to be pushed to #4, at least not on a team with numerous gaping holes.

They absolutely need a WR1, and if Julian doesn't come back they should throw Gunner, a cheap FA flyer, and/or a day 3 pick out there at slot in camp and see what sticks.

Use the rest of the money and draft picks elsewhere (D Line, LB, QB...)

They could clearly use a WR1 and there should be some good ones available at 15 but I'd frankly be a little surprised if they go that way when the also need front seven, secondary, TE and even--depending on Thuney, Andrews-- and their internal assessments of their other players-maybe some o-line help. Based on how they've been playing the last couple of seasons I think BB is trying to build a bit of a bully team--a big physical tough team that's going to run the ball and tackle hard--and it's tough to make a bully team by adding Jaylen Waddle types.

Captaincoop · Jan 4, 2021

Shelterdog said:
They could clearly use a WR1 and there should be some good ones available at 15 but I'd frankly be a little surprised if they go that way when the also need front seven, secondary, TE and even--depending on Thuney, Andrews-- and their internal assessments of their other players-maybe some o-line help. Based on how they've been playing the last couple of seasons I think BB is trying to build a bit of a bully team--a big physical tough team that's going to run the ball and tackle hard--and it's tough to make a bully team by adding Jaylen Waddle types.

I totally agree - it wouldn't fit the MO to pick a WR at 15. Perhaps Bill sees a fit in the FA market and spends money there the way he did with Gilmore at CB.

I'm almost willing to bet money they trade down from 15.

DJnVa · Jan 4, 2021

Captaincoop said:
I'm almost willing to bet money they trade down from 15.

If they do, it won't be until they see how the QBs fare on draft day.

tims4wins · Jan 4, 2021

DJnVa said:
If they do, it won't be until they see how the QBs fare on draft day.

What if they have a guy like Jimmy or Wentz on the roster at that point though?

Harry Hooper · Jan 4, 2021

Reportedly the Pats had identified only 2 QBs in the 2020 draft who could start as rookies: Burrow & Herbert. Maybe they think there are 3 in the 2021 draft, but they won't be drafting that high in any event. Add in BB's history and general philosophy about QBs, and it seems inevitable a veteran QB is starting for the Pats next season.

Shelterdog · Jan 4, 2021

Captaincoop said:
I totally agree - it wouldn't fit the MO to pick a WR at 15. Perhaps Bill sees a fit in the FA market and spends money there the way he did with Gilmore at CB.

I'm almost willing to bet money they trade down from 15.

I'm not so sure about the trade down--they didn't trade down or only moved down a slot or tow when they had the top 17 picks that became Warren Mayo Seymour and Solder. There's likely to be a player available at 15 (especially with three or four qbs at a minimum going in front of them) there's a pretty good chance they think there's someone available who can be a high level starter from day one. If BB absolutely falls in love with some random higher end player like a Caleb Fairley or Rashawn Slater my assumption is that they pick that player.

BigSoxFan · Jan 4, 2021

Looks like the Patriots have the following picks:

1st round: #15
2nd round: #46
3rd round: Comp pick (Brady) - #77 forfeited due to stupid Cincy penalty
4th round: #110, Comp pick (Van Noy), Comp pick (Collins)
5th round: #141
6th round: #161
7th round: #205

Given the extensive roster needs, I think there is a strong argument to trade down if a QB we like isn't there. Moving down 5-7 spots would allow the Pats to recoup the 3rd round pick they lost. Moving to the end of Round 1 likely nets them an additional 2nd and 3rd/4th. The FA period should tell some of the story. If they go on a spending spree, the need to trade down may be diminished a little bit. They really could go either direction at this point. They have the ability to move into the top 6-7 pretty easily - would require combining their 1st/2nd. Could go even further if they dangled a future 1st, which now actually holds a lot more value given the uncertainty of the team.

E5 Yaz · Jan 4, 2021

@MikeReiss
Patriots reserve/future signings:
K Roberto Aguayo
QB Jake "State Farm" Dolegala
DT Bill Murray
G Ross Reynolds
K Justin Rohrwasser
CB D'Angelo Ross
WR Devin Smith
DT Nick Thurman
WR Kristian Wilkerson (Kyed binky)
WR Isaiah Zuber

the1andonly3003 · Jan 4, 2021

had a double take after seeing the name Patrick Surtain on the draft target list...thought it was the early 2000s

BigSoxFan · Jan 4, 2021

the1andonly3003 said:
had a double take after seeing the name Patrick Surtain on the draft target list...thought it was the early 2000s

Asante Samuel Jr. is projected as a late 2nd round pick. Now you feel old.

bsj · Jan 5, 2021

Captaincoop said:
It will be surprising if Edelman comes back to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Byrd and Jakobi may be low end #2s, but IMO neither needs to be pushed to #4, at least not on a team with numerous gaping holes.

They absolutely need a WR1, and if Julian doesn't come back they should throw Gunner, a cheap FA flyer, and/or a day 3 pick out there at slot in camp and see what sticks.

Use the rest of the money and draft picks elsewhere (D Line, LB, QB...)

LIke i said...."best case" would be him back in the slot. I agree Edelman is a long shot.

I think we need more depth than just a WR1 and then rolling with what we have UNLESS we are also bringing in a proven pass catcher at TE. This team needs weapons plural. If we add a top WR1 and a, i dont know, Hunter Henry type, I agree Jakobi can serve as a valuable enough #2. But if TE will be more rookies/lottery picks, I feel we need better at the 2 spot.

Van Everyman · Jan 5, 2021

bsj said:
LIke i said...."best case" would be him back in the slot. I agree Edelman is a long shot.

It’s interesting to think of guys like Edelman, DMac, Hightower, Chung (and White to maybe a lesser extent). Unlike most guys who have been great over the course of their careers and begin to see the end of the road, these guys aren’t used to losing and hoping to get a chance to win just one before they retire. They’re used to winning and being in the playoffs every single year.

So what are they looking for? It’s not just one big payday vs. winning another ring, I would think. It’s probably also, “Do I want to mentor young guys or do I want another chance to be in a locker room with a winning mentality?”

I look at a guy like DMac and I think he relishes the mentor role. But Edelman? He’s a guy who seems to thrive on the camaraderie of a competitive football team.

It’s going to be interesting to see how this part of it plays out.

lexrageorge · Jan 5, 2021

Edelman is likely finished. He struggled when he was healthy, and then could not recover from a minor knee procedure. Few receivers are productive at age 35 coming off knee injuries. Welker was done at 34; Moss was a shell of himself at 35; Ocho-cinco was useless at 34; Troy Brown had all of 384 yards receiving at age 35. I don't see Edelman being productive anywhere in 2021.

Saints Rest · Jan 5, 2021

Pricing middle of the first round seems to yield one of two options:

Take the 3rd or 4th best at position like QB, DE, or OT;
Take the best at a position like LB or OG or TE.

BaseballJones · Jan 5, 2021

lexrageorge said:
Edelman is likely finished. He struggled when he was healthy, and then could not recover from a minor knee procedure. Few receivers are productive at age 35 coming off knee injuries. Welker was done at 34; Moss was a shell of himself at 35; Ocho-cinco was useless at 34; Troy Brown had all of 384 yards receiving at age 35. I don't see Edelman being productive anywhere in 2021.

I agree with you. But I don't think he needs to be a starter to help the team. Could a diminished Edelman still be a useful NFL receiver? I think so. He wouldn't start or be the go-to guy, but a diminished Edelman would probably face off against LBs or weaker DBs, who he still might be able to beat pretty regularly.

E5 Yaz · Jan 5, 2021

BigSoxFan said:
Asante Samuel Jr. is projected as a late 2nd round pick. Now you feel old.

Second-round defensive back? ... It's fate!

lexrageorge · Jan 5, 2021

BaseballJones said:
I agree with you. But I don't think he needs to be a starter to help the team. Could a diminished Edelman still be a useful NFL receiver? I think so. He wouldn't start or be the go-to guy, but a diminished Edelman would probably face off against LBs or weaker DBs, who he still might be able to beat pretty regularly.

I think you may be underestimating how diminished Edelman is likely to be next season. WR's tend to fall off steep cliffs in their mid-30's; he's unlikely to break an NFL roster next season based on what we saw this season.

Super Nomario · Jan 5, 2021

Saints Rest said:
Pricing middle of the first round seems to yield one of two options:

Take the 3rd or 4th best at position like QB, DE, or OT;

Take the best at a position like LB or OG or TE.

I think this is a good way of thinking about it. I will add that this particular year, there is no one standout edge rusher, so they might get their pick at 15. They also might get their pick at CB, or close to it, a position they value pretty highly (and one that, while not a major need for 2021, figures to be one shortly thereafter given Gilmore's contract status).

Super Nomario · Jan 5, 2021

lexrageorge said:
I think you may be underestimating how diminished Edelman is likely to be next season. WR's tend to fall off steep cliffs in their mid-30's; he's unlikely to break an NFL roster next season based on what we saw this season.

And yet he still had more receiving yards in 6 games than N'Keal Harry had all season!

BigSoxFan · Jan 5, 2021

E5 Yaz said:
Second-round defensive back? ... It's fate!

Hopefully Belichick doesn’t drop the ball and picks him.

DJnVa · Jan 5, 2021

tims4wins said:
What if they have a guy like Jimmy or Wentz on the roster at that point though?

Well sure, but I'm just approaching it from where we are now--no apparent starter on the roster. If we get to the draft at that point, then I think we see what happens.

E5 Yaz · Jan 5, 2021

BigSoxFan said:
Hopefully Belichick doesn’t drop the ball and picks him.

Too soon

BaseballJones · Jan 5, 2021

lexrageorge said:
I think you may be underestimating how diminished Edelman is likely to be next season. WR's tend to fall off steep cliffs in their mid-30's; he's unlikely to break an NFL roster next season based on what we saw this season.

You might be right. I think he has one more year left in him, but I could be wrong.

ShaneTrot · Jan 5, 2021

Super Nomario said:
And yet he still had more receiving yards in 6 games than N'Keal Harry had all season!

I keep seeing think pieces (Tom Curran has definitely said this) in which writers say that Harry won't be on the team next year. I think it would be ludicrous to give up on him after this year. Am I crazy?

Pats Roster Planning: Defense

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