Pats QB Options

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DJnVa

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Yeah, I think it goes without saying that if they agree to a deal with the Falcons for 4, it would be contingent on the player they want being available and would not be finalized until after pick 3 is made.
Can you imagine the nerves around here if the Falcons are on the clock and suddenly the ESPN thing flashes TRADE instead of PICK IS IN?
 

JM3

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I'm going to be casually freaking out every moment from the time the 49ers go on the clock @ 3 until Lance & Fields are off the board.

& then I will hope the Patriots get good value in their trade down.
 

tims4wins

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The draft is going to be super fun.

That said, the Pats aren’t trading up to 4. I am fully prepared for any scenario from that point on. But they are not trading to 4. Guaranteed.
 

Cotillion

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This might be the first 1st round I actually watch since they split it off. I used to watch the draft for the entire day when it was all 3 rounds together.
 
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Yeah I'm super excited about this draft. Mostly because it's the first time that I've spent a significant amount of time researching the players and conducting mocks and then researching further from the results of the mocks. Usually I have no idea who anybody is outside of a couple of QBs and a handful of other blue chippers.
 

EddieYost

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Hypothetical question alert...

If Miami took the last of the top 5 QBs at #6, would you give them 15 for Tua?
 

RG33

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I commented in this forum before free agency began that I didn’t think that I had ever been more excited about the free agency period beginning, but that I was ready to be potentially disappointed.

I feel the same way about this draft — I don’t know that I have been more excited to see an NFL draft play out, and I am prepared for the Pats to stick at 15 and take BPA or even trade down. . . . . .
 

Jimbodandy

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I commented in this forum before free agency began that I didn’t think that I had ever been more excited about the free agency period beginning, but that I was ready to be potentially disappointed.

I feel the same way about this draft — I don’t know that I have been more excited to see an NFL draft play out, and I am prepared for the Pats to stick at 15 and take BPA or even trade down. . . . . .
Look at it this way, aside from QB they're not plugging holes in this team at 15 anymore. Their FA spending spree more or less fixed that. Most years, they're spending high picks trying to backfill guys that bolted for greener pastures. So even BPA at 15 is like a net add, some guy who can come in and be a difference maker on defense or whatever. It's like finding money in your laundry.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Honest question. When was the last time they went into the draft with a glaring hole to fill? I always thought Bill did pretty well at getting the team filled before the draft. Which is why no one ever really knows which direction he’s going to go.
 

54thMA

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I commented in this forum before free agency began that I didn’t think that I had ever been more excited about the free agency period beginning, but that I was ready to be potentially disappointed.

I feel the same way about this draft — I don’t know that I have been more excited to see an NFL draft play out, and I am prepared for the Pats to stick at 15 and take BPA or even trade down. . . . . .
Thankfully because of all their recent success, they've rarely had the opportunity the past 20 years or so to draft this high in the first round.

If they don't make a trade to move up, I really hope they stay at 15 and draft an impact player.

Trading down to stockpile draft picks is something this organization does quite a bit.

I hope in this instance they do not.
 

simplyeric

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Thankfully because of all their recent success, they've rarely had the opportunity the past 20 years or so to draft this high in the first round.

If they don't make a trade to move up, I really hope they stay at 15 and draft an impact player.

Trading down to stockpile draft picks is something this organization does quite a bit.

I hope in this instance they do not.
I don’t know...
If they trade down this year, or maybe for someone’s 1st next year, is that so bad?

if they have a bad season, they have a higher pick and an extra pick and would be in an even better position to get a top QB next year.
If they have a better season, then that’s a good thing, and then they have more picks to draft impact players and/or stick up for longevity.
If the draft up this year and that QB isn’t that good, then what?

obviously drafting an impact D player this year would be fantastic.
 

E5 Yaz

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If they trade down this year, or maybe for someone’s 1st next year, is that so bad?

if they have a bad season, they have a higher pick and an extra pick and would be in an even better position to get a top QB next year.
We've been told by every talking hairdo that next year's QB class isn't very good. Of course, last year at this time, we'd only heard of Lawrence, Fields and Lance ... and now there are five going in the top half of the first round, so who knows?
 

54thMA

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I don’t know...
If they trade down this year, or maybe for someone’s 1st next year, is that so bad?

if they have a bad season, they have a higher pick and an extra pick and would be in an even better position to get a top QB next year.
If they have a better season, then that’s a good thing, and then they have more picks to draft impact players and/or stick up for longevity.
If the draft up this year and that QB isn’t that good, then what?

obviously drafting an impact D player this year would be fantastic.
I'd just prefer that if they do not move up for one of the top tier QB's this year, they sit at 15 and take an impact player, with the projected run on QB's, offensive linemen, WR's and Pitt at TE, they could be in line to take one of the highest rated if not the highest rated defensive player in the draft.

Belichick has a great track record of taking impact defensive linemen and linebackers when he has the chance to draft high.
 

simplyeric

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We've been told by every talking hairdo that next year's QB class isn't very good. Of course, last year at this time, we'd only heard of Lawrence, Fields and Lance ... and now there are five going in the top half of the first round, so who knows?
But we’re not really going to get the best of this year’s class anyway, and I window be surprised if BB has a different take on the quality of the WB’s than most of the media.
And yeah, who knows who’ll come into their own during the next season?
I'd just prefer that if they do not move up for one of the top tier QB's this year, they sit at 15 and take an impact player, with the projected run on QB's, offensive linemen, WR's and Pitt at TE, they could be in line to take one of the highest rated if not the highest rated defensive player in the draft.

Belichick has a great track record of taking impact defensive linemen and linebackers when he has the chance to draft high.
Yeah I’d be all for drafting an impact pass rusher at 15, and trying to find ‘fungible QB value’ in the second round or something.
 

JM3

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There's a drop off after around the top 12 (+Mac Jones) & value is pretty flat after that. If they can't get Fields/Lance & someone makes a great offer, it would be hard to refuse.

If the Patriots are bad enough this year to be in position to take a good QB next year, they might as well fold up shop, tear everything down & hand the keys to SB.
 

Joe Sixpack

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There's a drop off after around the top 12 (+Mac Jones) & value is pretty flat after that. If they can't get Fields/Lance & someone makes a great offer, it would be hard to refuse.

If the Patriots are bad enough this year to be in position to take a good QB next year, they might as well fold up shop, tear everything down & hand the keys to SB.
What non-QBs would you put in the top 12? Apologies if you've shared before, this thread is getting pretty massive and it's tough to keep track.

As best I can tell the top non-QBs would be Pitts, Sewell, Slater, Chase, Waddle, Surtain, Smith, Parsons, which if you buy 5 QBs going early gets us through 13 picks.

After that it does seem to flatten out with the next tier of a dozen or so guys being relatively interchangeable, at least from tracking mocks and analysis out there.

It seems like if the Pats don't work out a deal for a QB they like, it could be worth moving up 2-3 spots to get one of the top non-QB players from the above group (Parsons maybe).
 

axx

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After that it does seem to flatten out with the next tier of a dozen or so guys being relatively interchangeable, at least from tracking mocks and analysis out there.

It seems like if the Pats don't work out a deal for a QB they like, it could be worth moving up 2-3 spots to get one of the top non-QB players from the above group (Parsons maybe).
Isn't that kind of an argument that a team shouldn't really trade down that far?
 

Joe Sixpack

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Isn't that kind of an argument that a team shouldn't really trade down that far?
It depends. Let's say Dallas is looking at Surtain at 10, maybe they figure they can still get their #2 CB on the board without much of a drop-off and the extra 2nd rounder (or whatever it ends up being) is worth more to them.
 
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What non-QBs would you put in the top 12? Apologies if you've shared before, this thread is getting pretty massive and it's tough to keep track.

As best I can tell the top non-QBs would be Pitts, Sewell, Slater, Chase, Waddle, Surtain, Smith, Parsons, which if you buy 5 QBs going early gets us through 13 picks.

After that it does seem to flatten out with the next tier of a dozen or so guys being relatively interchangeable, at least from tracking mocks and analysis out there.

It seems like if the Pats don't work out a deal for a QB they like, it could be worth moving up 2-3 spots to get one of the top non-QB players from the above group (Parsons maybe).
Seems like some draft geeks that I've read occasionally insert others like Farley, Paye, Barmore, Darrisaw, Horn, Moehrig, Ojulari, Vera-Tucker, Owusu-Koramoah, and Collins as potential top 15 picks. I don't know if this is normal to have so much disagreement on the top players, or there is just more uncertainty this year than normal.
 

Super Nomario

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Seems like some draft geeks that I've read occasionally insert others like Farley, Paye, Barmore, Darrisaw, Horn, Moehrig, Ojulari, Vera-Tucker, Owusu-Koramoah, and Collins as potential top 15 picks. I don't know if this is normal to have so much disagreement on the top players, or there is just more uncertainty this year than normal.
It's not a great defensive class at the top. It will likely be the first year since 2012 an edge rusher doesn't go in the top 10, and a interior defensive lineman might not go in the top 20. You could argue the two best defensive prospects are Micah Parsons and Caleb Farley, and both opted out in 2020 and both have pretty serious concerns off the field (character in Parsons' case; injuries in Farley's).
 

Mystic Merlin

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Darrisaw, Farley, Horn and Collins are arguably prime prospects, too.

Pats will have a shot at a highly touted player at 15, but the questions are (1) do the Pats agree with the draftnik consensus on these guys and (2) are there OTHER guys the draftnik community may not be all over that the Pats rank similarly to the consensus top players? Who knows. That’s what makes them interesting to follow in the draft.
 

JM3

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What non-QBs would you put in the top 12? Apologies if you've shared before, this thread is getting pretty massive and it's tough to keep track.

As best I can tell the top non-QBs would be Pitts, Sewell, Slater, Chase, Waddle, Surtain, Smith, Parsons, which if you buy 5 QBs going early gets us through 13 picks.

After that it does seem to flatten out with the next tier of a dozen or so guys being relatively interchangeable, at least from tracking mocks and analysis out there.

It seems like if the Pats don't work out a deal for a QB they like, it could be worth moving up 2-3 spots to get one of the top non-QB players from the above group (Parsons maybe).
I haven't posted a big board or anything. Just saying based on draftnik consensus & your list seems right (12 highly regarded players + Mac = top 13).

I only want to see them trade up for Lance/Fields & if they see value close to how I do & the right offer comes up I hope they take it. A good example would be in 2018 when the Saints traded 27 & their 2019 1st to the Packers for 14 where they drafted Marcus Davenport. I would do a trade like that in a heartbeat if it's on the table.

Parsons is...polarizing. Definitely with considering if he makes it to 15 & there's not a big offer to move down on the table, though.
 

tims4wins

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Is there someone down in the 20’s that BB looks at and says ‘I think they’ll stink next year, I’ll trade 15th this year for the gamble that it might be 10th next year’?
Bears at 20, Jets at 23 (unlikely), Jags at 25, even the Browns at 26 might be a worthwhile gamble.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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There's a drop off after around the top 12 (+Mac Jones) & value is pretty flat after that. If they can't get Fields/Lance & someone makes a great offer, it would be hard to refuse.

If the Patriots are bad enough this year to be in position to take a good QB next year, they might as well fold up shop, tear everything down & hand the keys to SB.
If the talent after the top 13 truly flattens out, why would any team in the bottom half of the draft make the Patriots a "great offer" to get the 15th pick when they could offer less and get the same value at say 20?
 

E5 Yaz

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If the talent after the top 13 truly flattens out, why would any team in the bottom half of the draft make the Patriots a "great offer" to get the 15th pick when they could offer less and get the same value at say 20?
The most likely reason would be if they are targeting a particular player who is still available.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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The most likely reason would be if they are targeting a particular player who is still available.
Agree, but that just tells me that at least one team clearly feels that the talent has not flattened out and the guy they want at 15 is more valuable than any other player available at 20.
 

E5 Yaz

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Agree, but that just tells me that at least one team clearly feels that the talent has not flattened out and the guy they want at 15 is more valuable than any other player available at 20.
Or that, as often happens, some team or two ahead of 15 reached for a position of need instead of the top talents.

I think you might be overthinking this.
 

nighthob

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We've been told by every talking hairdo that next year's QB class isn't very good. Of course, last year at this time, we'd only heard of Lawrence, Fields and Lance ... and now there are five going in the top half of the first round, so who knows?
The problem is that QBs always go high, so the 2021 Pats wouldn’t need a QB to pop, they’d need four or five to pop to have a practical chance of trading up for one without trading away three first round picks as well as their ‘22 draft to do it.
 

JM3

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If the talent after the top 13 truly flattens out, why would any team in the bottom half of the draft make the Patriots a "great offer" to get the 15th pick when they could offer less and get the same value at say 20?
Basically what Yaz said. Every team's board is different. Some teams fall in love with certain players, think they're 1 player away, etc.
 

axx

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Anyone want to guess when the sixth QB might be taken? Looking at Atlanta at 35, wondering if they might consider taking a QB then if they don't at 4.
 

JM3

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Anyone want to guess when the sixth QB might be taken? Looking at Atlanta at 35, wondering if they might consider taking a QB then if they don't at 4.
I don't think a 6th QB should be taken until the 3rd round. But teams do silly things, so no clue.
 
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