Pats QB Options

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DJnVa

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Florio, on PFT, said the Niners may want Bridgewater, which if course means, they'd totally deal JG to Patriots.
 

E5 Yaz

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Florio, on PFT, said the Niners may want Bridgewater, which if course means, they'd totally deal JG to Patriots.
1. Florio
2. Of course they would "deal" JG to the Patriots
3. Whether the Patriots would want to acquire him via trade, on the other hand, is another matter
 

Harry Hooper

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1. Florio
2. Of course they would "deal" JG to the Patriots
3. Whether the Patriots would want to acquire him via trade, on the other hand, is another matter
Also, Teddy's agent may have fed Florio the "info" to try and get other teams to move on trading for Teddy.
 

nattysez

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I do buy that the Niners feel like they need another backup. JG's injuries have given their current backups a lot of opportunities over the past few years, and they've almost always played terribly.
 

kartvelo

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Forgive the game-thready content, here, but if Kellen Mond ends up on the N.E. roster, I need to put in an early word for a nickname of “What a World.” Not a big Francophile contingent in here but that was irresistible.
I'm hoping to discover that he has a sister named Tula.
 

Zincman

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Trey Lance and Justin Fields have similar ceilings: sky high. They are both true dual-threats with cannons for arms. Lance has accuracy issues whereas Fields sometimes takes too long to launch it (see-it throw-it). If you watch his second Clemson game this year you get the best of Fields. Fields cannon and accuracy will mitigate any slow decision making he has. Lance is taught to progress the opposite way as most QBs do from the FB to then the WR. With Lance he isn’t always as traditionally aggressive as you want but like Fields he hardly ever makes a turnover worthy throw.
Some like Lance more. Some like Fields more. I have more questions on if Lance can fix his accuracy vs Fields speeding things up but I’d be thrilled with both.
SMU is always right on with his evaluations and I trust his opinions on Lance and Fields. But perhaps the real calculus for the Pats is the value difference between those two and the second tier of QBs. If the Pats perceive the gap as substantial, then trading up expensively might still be the right thing. But if the value gap is smaller than we think (according to BB) then the amount of capital we should be willing to spend is important as this is still a team with significant gaps (present and future) that need to be filled. Are we a rookie QB a year away from winning big? Not in my book. And I will be surprised if BB invests heavily in a high risk position at the expense of continued roster building.
 

TheRealness

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I suspect the Patriots are less than interested in paying to trade up to 4, and from after that pick any trade they do make would likely be contingent on Fields still being there at whatever spot they would presumably trade up to. I think they might look at Detroit at #7 as a potential trade partner, especially if Chase and Pitts are off the board, as I could see the Lions willing to get more assets to trade down (they could get a good defensive player or tackle at 15). I will most certainly be watching the Draft, which means for sure they are trading down.

The Jimmy G thing just seems more Belichick-y and likely to me. ”Outplaying” the 49ers into releasing him, and they get him for nothing, or alternatively them getting him for a song (5th), because they want would rather pay Teddy G and have their pick ready to take over. It just seems like something BB would relish.

I would love for them to get Fields, but I am resigned to the fact BB just doesn’t value the position (or whatever prospect is there) enough to pay the price to move up in the draft and get them.
 

nattysez

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The amount of Mond love I'm seeing on Pats Twitter is convincing me BB will never draft him.
 

tims4wins

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I suspect the Patriots are less than interested in paying to trade up to 4, and from after that pick any trade they do make would likely be contingent on Fields still being there at whatever spot they would presumably trade up to. I think they might look at Detroit at #7 as a potential trade partner, especially if Chase and Pitts are off the board, as I could see the Lions willing to get more assets to trade down (they could get a good defensive player or tackle at 15). I will most certainly be watching the Draft, which means for sure they are trading down.

The Jimmy G thing just seems more Belichick-y and likely to me. ”Outplaying” the 49ers into releasing him, and they get him for nothing, or alternatively them getting him for a song (5th), because they want would rather pay Teddy G and have their pick ready to take over. It just seems like something BB would relish.

I would love for them to get Fields, but I am resigned to the fact BB just doesn’t value the position (or whatever prospect is there) enough to pay the price to move up in the draft and get them.
Feel the same way. I think there’s a chance the Pats end up with a first round QB, but a small one. Much more likely they use a 2nd-4th rounder.
 

SMU_Sox

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Good article from Ben Solak looking at Fields, Jones, and Lance and how they fit into the 49ers offense. I’ll use his article as well as PFF data and my own notes.

McCorkle “Mac” Jones
One of the evaluations from Ben is something I agree with and what the data from PFF backs up. Mac Jones can make tight window throws in the short area but while he has tremendous general accuracy he struggles with pinpoint or tight window throws in the intermediate and long areas. He goes from having the best general accuracy to some of the worst pinpoint accuracy of the past 4 years there. He doesn’t hit guys in stride well. PFF backs that up. Burrow last year had 122 pinpoint throws to Jones being in the 40s (think it was 42 or 44). Sure you’ll find plenty of tight window throws. But you’ll also see him aided by his stud receivers who all have excellent ball tracking and adjusting skills. Mac throws with anticipation and has sound decision making. His arm is below average for the NFL and his mechanics impact both the velocity and placement of his balls. The Patriots have gone both with safer picks in rounds 2-3 like Jimmy G who had a quick release and guys who have been traitsier like Ryan Mallett. Accuracy and decision making are things Belichick covets so he could like a lot about Mac. If the drafted Mac he would have the worst arm strength of any round 3 and up QB they drafted. I could see them drafting Jones if he fell to them but I am not sure they would go for a guy with such a limited and stunted tool set so early.

Trey Lance
Lance has the processing and some of the anticipation you want but his accuracy is some of the worst Ben has charted over the past 4 years. Same with PFF. I think I’m terms of off the field, anticipation, decision making, arm strength, being able to run, etc that Lance checks a lot of boxes for them. But Belichick has said he doesn’t care about a cannon if you can’t use it and he wants accuracy and decision making as the key traits. And while Mac has been in college for longer than Lance they have both started the same number of guys, 18. Lance has accuracy problems due to both his upper and lower body mechanics that he has been working on. He’s also only 20 so you have time to change how he throws and it might stick. To me Lance satisfies many of their requirements but his accuracy might scare them off if they think it is not fixable enough. Lance’s system already has things that both the 49ers and Patriots do and he is familiar with heavier personnel packages with his power run NDSU pro style offense. Lance does the same things in the pocket like changes plays and calls protections like NFL guys do. I think Lance would fit what they are doing now by mid to late season or by next year. Cam would be a tremendous mentor for him (same with Fields).

Justin Fields
Then there is Fields. One of the most accurate and pinpoint accurate guys to all levels of the field.He’s like top 3 most accurate over the past 3 years. He’s also a dual threat to run like Lance. Oddly both of these guys though prefer to pass and only run when it is the last option. They are both pocket passers and excel in the pocket. Everyone who tracks Fields comes away with the same thing: he has the best arm in the class and perhaps of the past 3-4 years in terms of accuracy and ball placement as well as pure arm strength. He will routinely make 40 yard throws downfield and hit the receiver in stride without the guy making an adjustment. He’s that’s good. Where Fields might struggle, Ben notes, is in the short/quick game. Now the Patriots have liked to use that with Brady but with their offensive line and with Cam they had longer developing concepts. Bill/Josh builds their offense scheme and game plans around the QB and team personnel. Fields like Lance rarely turns the ball over or make a turnover worthy throw. He almost always makes the right decision but like I’ve said before he is a tick deliberate as a thrower. You can speed that up. D. Watsons on field decision making has improved a ton the past 3 years and he had a slow trigger too (he has a quicker trigger now).Fields accuracy with play action is elite as well. A lot of QBs in this league are see-it throw-it guys and you can build offenses around that kind of a limitation.

Lance vs Fields
So to me it comes down to what do you think is more fixable/coachable: Lance’s accuracy or Justin Fields processing speed/anticipation? To what degree are they correctable? Which guy would fit in better? For me I think Lance edges out Fields in all the other traits minus they are both tough as nails, both leaders, and Fields crushes him in terms of accuracy.

Non first round QBs
Of the other QBs I don’t see any of the non big 5 guys as starter caliber in quality. Mond, Newman, Mills, and even Trask might one day be a starter but they all have significant flaws and none of them are that special. Trask is immobile and has mayor accuracy issues and his delivery is both flawed as well as he needs a huge pocket to make a throw. Newman opted out and takes forever to throw the ball combined with inconsistent decision making. Mond’s accuracy is mediocre. His arm is mediocre. Everything about him is average to slightly above average. He’s not special and at 205 pounds and already being a veteran starter he may be what he is now without much more room for growth. Mills is inconsistent with his post snap processing and has wild bouts of inaccuracy. He has been injured a lot and needs a year or two on the bench to get better all around. No one else is really worth talking about. Zach Wilson is going 2nd and Lawrence is going 1st so no reason to talk about them.
Mills is the guy with the best ceiling of outcomes of the middle round guys but he’s also a huge risk for multiple reasons: inexperience, decision making, wildly inaccurate for long stretches, injury history. If the Pats don’t get a QB early they might not like any of the other options later on. This is a QB year where the top end is both numerous and deeply talented but the middle and lower tiers are barren and not promising.
My guess is they will be in on Fields and Lance and if one slides to 4+ Patriots will strike by trading up. They might not trade up to 4 but I think they could swing the cost from 7 and up. You don’t usually have the chance to draft a guy like Fields or Lance because in a normal year they would both be gone by 3 or so.

@Zincman I am not sure they are going to be wowed by any of the day 2 guys (or day 3) I at least wasn’t. If I had to pick a favorite though... I think Mond could have a good career as a backup and spot starter. That has some value but I’m not hitching my carriage to that horse as a starter. Also thank you for the kind words.
 
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Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Fantastic post SMU. Thank you for putting the time in. I had been down on Lance all off season but I’m starting to come around. If he could get the chance to learn from Cam for a year as well as being around the coaches and culture here he could be special.
 

DJnVa

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I do buy that the Niners feel like they need another backup. JG's injuries have given their current backups a lot of opportunities over the past few years, and they've almost always played terribly.
I would think Teddy would have no desire to play for the Niners unless he has a promise that JG is gone. If doesn't want to stay and compete with Darnold, he's definitely not going to want to go to SF and fight with Mac Jones and JG.
 

DJnVa

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I get what everyone is saying about what it seems like the more BB thing to do is, but I mean, did we all not see free agency? This year is an outlier. He's gonna push for a move up.

DISCLAIMER: I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
 

JM3

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Nice post SMU.

Any thoughts on Feleipe Franks? He's my favorite later round flyer guy for very little discernable reason.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Another tremendous post @SMU_Sox.

I've been against trading up for a QB, especially in the top 5. However, if—and that's a big if—he falls anywhere outside of that, I will be elated to grab Fields. Our (beloved) former BBtL regular Mark Schofield has been defending Fields for weeks. Perhaps I should listen more carefully to Mark, you, and other knowledgeable posters here.

P. S. If NE can't get a QB with the #15, I will be rooting for them to either pick OT/G Tevin Jenkins or simply trade down. They can pick up a late-1st, late-2nd, and a mid-3rd picks. That may allow BB to grab a CB/OL and take a chance on someone like Mond.
 
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This has been a great thread for the last several weeks, with many thoughtful posts and good information. So much better than the hot takes throughout the major sports media.
JM3 happened to bring up Feleipe Franks, and he is a player I am curious about as well. It seems clear that he would be a long-term developmental project, (although that is what is expected
for a Day 3 selection) but you can't teach size or passing touch, and he has both. Any analysis of his potential would be welcome. Also, I have wondered if he could possibly be moved
to another position if QB doesn't work out. If he has a decent hands and pass-catching ability, could he be a flanker or H-back? It would provide interesting potential for option plays where
he could either run or pass.
 

koufax32

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Nice post SMU.

Any thoughts on Feleipe Franks? He's my favorite later round flyer guy for very little discernable reason.
Please, no.

Gator fan here. While I didn’t see all of his post UF games, I can tell you from his Gator days that you want nothing to do with him. He couldn’t read a defense, get through more than one progression, or anticipate windows.
Now is it possible for him to learn all of this? Sure, I guess. But no way do I want to waste a pick on him. He has an Elway arm with a Blake Bortles brain.
 

tims4wins

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Lombardi on the QBs. Not sure how much to believe him. On the one hand he is fairly plugged in. On the other hand, he gives no reasons for the Pats not necessarily loving Fields or Lance.




 

Ferm Sheller

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That's my gut feeling too: that they don't like them enough to pay even a fair price to move up to get them (or any other QB). I'd nearly bet my house on it.
 

tims4wins

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That's my gut feeling too: that they don't like them enough to pay even a fair price to move up to get them (or any other QB). I'd nearly bet my house on it.
Feel completely the same. I think there is a small chance, given their approach in FA and Kraft's comments on finding a long term solution. But it's hard to see BB seeing the "value".

Edit: to be clear, it seems like Lombardi is basing this opinion on the Pats having to trade to 4. And I agree with him on that, I wouldn't give up first rounders in 2022 and 2023 either. But moving up to 7-11 is a different animal IMO - that might not even require a second first round pick (15 + 46 + 120/122/139, or 15 + 46 + 2022 2nd/3rd, something like that).
 

JM3

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Please, no.

Gator fan here. While I didn’t see all of his post UF games, I can tell you from his Gator days that you want nothing to do with him. He couldn’t read a defense, get through more than one progression, or anticipate windows.
Now is it possible for him to learn all of this? Sure, I guess. But no way do I want to waste a pick on him. He has an Elway arm with a Blake Bortles brain.
Sounds like a pretty awesome 6th round pick. Blake Bortles without the Elway arm would be a fine 6th round pick.

He also improved a lot from his time at Florida to his time at Arkansas & throughout his college career.

Ignoring his injury shortened 3rd year (where his #s were really good, but small ss):

Comp % 54.6, 58.4, 68.5
Y/A 6.3, 7.6, 8.9
AY/A 5.5, 8.3, 9.5
Rating 113.3, 143.4, 163.1

He's also 6'6 1/2, 234 lbs, ran a 4.55 40, has an 82" wingspan, 4.22 shuttle, 7.16 3-cone, 32.5" vert.

For reference purposes, Kyle Pitts is 6'6, 245 lbs, ran a 4.44 40, 83 3/8" wingspan, 4.35 shuttle, 7.12 3-cone, 33.5" vert...& Pitts is a freak athlete.

Idk, I'm somewhat intrigued - even though he doesn't have an amazing feel for the game & he has a good, but not Elway-esque, arm.

I obviously don't think he's the solution for the Patriots at QB this year, or maybe even ever, so this is probably the completely wrong thread for this discussion, but was just curious how others felt about him. Like I personally would never draft Kyle Trask over him.
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm just not seeing them trading way up to get a player that they may not feel like they can contribute right away. They have a number of needs long-term such as OT and CB that could be addressed with #15 or trading down and picking up extra picks. Someone like a Horn/Surtain/Darrisaw/Parsons would go a long ways in shoring up some areas that are thin when looking at the long-term view of the club. Now, by all means if Fields slips to 8-9-10 then the opportunity cost to move up is not nearly as steep.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Feel completely the same. I think there is a small chance, given their approach in FA and Kraft's comments on finding a long term solution. But it's hard to see BB seeing the "value".

Edit: to be clear, it seems like Lombardi is basing this opinion on the Pats having to trade to 4. And I agree with him on that, I wouldn't give up first rounders in 2022 and 2023 either. But moving up to 7-11 is a different animal IMO - that might not even require a second first round pick (15 + 46 + 120/122/139, or 15 + 46 + 2022 2nd/3rd, something like that).
I could see them moving up a few spots if the opportunity is there, but I think it's more likely that they stick at #15 (or trade down) and look to take a QB in the middle rounds. And if they decide that that QB isn't the future after a year of having him on board, then they'll address the QB situation again next off-season. Every year presents fresh opportunities.
 

tims4wins

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I'm just not seeing them trading way up to get a player that they may not feel like they can contribute right away. They have a number of needs long-term such as OT and CB that could be addressed with #15 or trading down and picking up extra picks. Someone like a Horn/Surtain/Darrisaw/Parsons would go a long ways in shoring up some areas that are thin when looking at the long-term view of the club. Now, by all means if Fields slips to 8-9-10 then the opportunity cost to move up is not nearly as steep.
This is a fair point, and agree on trading way up - they highest I can see them going is 7 - but counter argument on OT and CB is if they draft a Slater or Darrisaw, or Horn or Surtain, those guys aren't likely to play a ton in 2021 either due to the incumbent starters at the position (unless they trade JCJ or Gilmore). So almost no matter who you take in the first round, it is more for a long term need (QB, CB, OT) than it is for 2021. So if you're going to be drafting for the future either way... might as well go for the QB IMO.
 

JM3

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I don't think I've literally ever advocated for the Patriots to trade up before. Teams get ripped off trading up. But it works out sometimes, especially when it's for an extremely talented QB.

The Patriots have spent a ton of draft capital on bad DBs:

2019 2nd round Joejuan Williams
2018 2nd round Duke Dawson
2016 2nd round Cyrus Jones
2015 2nd round Jordan Richards

& picked up some really good ones for free like JC Jackson, Malcolm Butler & Jonathan Jones.

Yes, we picked up Brady almost for free, but that's really not how franchise QBs normally happen. If we don't strike this year, what's the plan for next year? Good QBs just don't come randomly available.

A little thought experiment...how many 1st rounders is Patrick Mahomes worth?

2019 #32 N'Keal Harry
2018 #23 Isaiah Wynn
2018 #31 Sony Michel
2015 #32 Malcom Brown
2014 #29 Dominique Easley
2012 #21 Chandler Jones
2012 #25 Dont'a Hightower
2011 #17 Nate Solder
2010 #27 Devin McCourty
2008 #10 Jerod Mayo
2007 #24 Brandon Meriweather
2006 #21 Laurence Maroney

The 1st 5 are easy - I think everyone would agree that we would trade our last 5 1st rounders for almost any good young QB...Josh Allen, Dak, Herbert, Kyler, etc.

The only question is do we throw Chandler/High/Solder into the mix. & the answer for Mahomes in terms of win expectancy I think is "yes to all".

Obviously one can't draft a QB, let alone the 4th or 5th QB taken in the draft, to be Mahomeslike, but QB is the least fungible position in the league & if the Patriots can solve the next 15 years at QB this draft, there's almost no price too high. So if they evaluate Lance or Fields in that way, I think they'll go for it.

Building a solid team is great, but you aren't a dynasty without an elite QB & this may be their best chance for many years.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Feel completely the same. I think there is a small chance, given their approach in FA and Kraft's comments on finding a long term solution. But it's hard to see BB seeing the "value".

Edit: to be clear, it seems like Lombardi is basing this opinion on the Pats having to trade to 4. And I agree with him on that, I wouldn't give up first rounders in 2022 and 2023 either. But moving up to 7-11 is a different animal IMO - that might not even require a second first round pick (15 + 46 + 120/122/139, or 15 + 46 + 2022 2nd/3rd, something like that).
That's my gut feeling too.

I think its also worth remembering that the type of trade packages being discussed as necessary to get to #4 would make that one of the ten most expensive draft trades of all time, maybe even top five. It is not something BB is going to do (or should do) unless he really really really believes in the player.
 

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Great post. And the fact is the wins over Baltimore and Arizona plus that come from behind win over the Jets loom so large right now. They would literally be in position to get a QB had they not won those games. It literally sucks that they won those games IMO and I don’t want to hear the oh the culture excuse. They would be better positioned right now to strike for a QB.
While I get this and deep down feel similarly, and we have no way of knowing this one way or the other, but does the same free agent bonanza occur if they were 4-12 instead? Maybe the answer is yes, I dunno. But I do think there is something to be said for culture.
 

JM3

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I mean, if BB wasn't the way he is, he wouldn't be as successful as he has been. While yeah, losing more games last year would have almost certainly been good for the team's long-term future, not pushing for every scrap of success isn't in BB's nature & that's ok, too.
 

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I tend to agree that they are unlikely to make a major trade up in this draft, though it all depends on how they grade the QBs who are likely to be available after No. 3.

That said, I would love to get inside Belichick's head on this -- he must know that he doesn't have that many years left to coach. What does he have left to accomplish? There's winning the next Superbowl, and there's catching Shula for the all-time wins record. The way I think about it, the team could roll with Cam and hope that the next answer at QB falls into their laps (through another draft pick or trade) -- but that seems like the low-risk, low-reward scenario. Unless lightning strikes, the team is probably positioned to win 7-9 games a year for the foreseeable future.

Taking a big swing on the 4th QB in this draft is the high variance move. If the team spends a bunch of high-end draft capital to make that pick and the QB is a bust, the team probably stinks for the rest of Bill's tenure as head coach (and probably doesn't control its own first rounders for a couple years). That's a quagmire. But if that QB hits, Bill is immediately back in contention and has a rookie-scale QB contract to build around for the twilight of his career.
 

Chainsaw318

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Sounds like a pretty awesome 6th round pick. Blake Bortles without the Elway arm would be a fine 6th round pick.

He also improved a lot from his time at Florida to his time at Arkansas & throughout his college career.

Ignoring his injury shortened 3rd year (where his #s were really good, but small ss):

Comp % 54.6, 58.4, 68.5
Y/A 6.3, 7.6, 8.9
AY/A 5.5, 8.3, 9.5
Rating 113.3, 143.4, 163.1

He's also 6'6 1/2, 234 lbs, ran a 4.55 40, has an 82" wingspan, 4.22 shuttle, 7.16 3-cone, 32.5" vert.

For reference purposes, Kyle Pitts is 6'6, 245 lbs, ran a 4.44 40, 83 3/8" wingspan, 4.35 shuttle, 7.12 3-cone, 33.5" vert...& Pitts is a freak athlete.

Idk, I'm somewhat intrigued - even though he doesn't have an amazing feel for the game & he has a good, but not Elway-esque, arm.

I obviously don't think he's the solution for the Patriots at QB this year, or maybe even ever, so this is probably the completely wrong thread for this discussion, but was just curious how others felt about him. Like I personally would never draft Kyle Trask over him.
If they draft Franks late, it could also allow him to be monitored by the Red Sox, who drafted him in the 31st round in 2019.

He threw off a mound at instructs that year, I believe, hitting 94 after not having pitched in years.

Or they could draft him, let him see he maybe won’t make it, cut him and get him on the mound at JetBlue park by spring 2022.
 

tims4wins

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I tend to agree that they are unlikely to make a major trade up in this draft, though it all depends on how they grade the QBs who are likely to be available after No. 3.

That said, I would love to get inside Belichick's head on this -- he must know that he doesn't have that many years left to coach. What does he have left to accomplish? There's winning the next Superbowl, and there's catching Shula for the all-time wins record. The way I think about it, the team could roll with Cam and hope that the next answer at QB falls into their laps (through another draft pick or trade) -- but that seems like the low-risk, low-reward scenario. Unless lightning strikes, the team is probably positioned to win 7-9 games a year for the foreseeable future.

Taking a big swing on the 4th QB in this draft is the high variance move. If the team spends a bunch of high-end draft capital to make that pick and the QB is a bust, the team probably stinks for the rest of Bill's tenure as head coach (and probably doesn't control its own first rounders for a couple years). That's a quagmire. But if that QB hits, Bill is immediately back in contention and has a rookie-scale QB contract to build around for the twilight of his career.
Which is why taking a swing at a QB at 7-8 or 10-11 is less risky - it wouldn't cripple the team's future IMO.
 

DJnVa

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Which is why taking a swing at a QB at 7-8 or 10-11 is less risky - it wouldn't cripple the team's future IMO.
Yeah, my talk that I think he's making a move isn't a prediction he's going to #4. It's simply a feeling that he's going to jump when he sees Lance or Fields slide into the sweet spot.
 

tims4wins

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Obviously one can't draft a QB, let alone the 4th or 5th QB taken in the draft, to be Mahomeslike
Using this as a jumping off point, but a question to you and other draftniks in this thread: why did the league miss so badly on Mahomes? While he was the 2nd QB picked in the 2017 draft and not the 4th/5th, he also didn't get picked until 10th. So even as of four years ago it is clear that the league wasn't evaluating QBs correctly (and I doubt it has improved a ton in the four years since).

While the 4th or 5th QB taken is unlikely to be anything close to Mahomes, ever, wouldn't the ceiling for a Fields or a Lance be pretty similar to a Mahomes?
 

JM3

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Using this as a jumping off point, but a question to you and other draftniks in this thread: why did the league miss so badly on Mahomes? While he was the 2nd QB picked in the 2017 draft and not the 4th/5th, he also didn't get picked until 10th. So even as of four years ago it is clear that the league wasn't evaluating QBs correctly (and I doubt it has improved a ton in the four years since).

While the 4th or 5th QB taken is unlikely to be anything close to Mahomes, ever, wouldn't the ceiling for a Fields or a Lance be pretty similar to a Mahomes?
I blame Andre Ware.

The main knocks on him were being a system QB, occasionally bad mechanics, no experience under center or huddling & trying to force the ball into tight coverage too often.

Lots of GMs apparently had him pegged as a 2nd to 4th round pick.

I think the main thing they missed was that his work ethic, leadership, arm strength & talent (all of which were mentioned in scouting reports) meant that all his weaknesses were fixable ones.
 

BaseballJones

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Using this as a jumping off point, but a question to you and other draftniks in this thread: why did the league miss so badly on Mahomes? While he was the 2nd QB picked in the 2017 draft and not the 4th/5th, he also didn't get picked until 10th. So even as of four years ago it is clear that the league wasn't evaluating QBs correctly (and I doubt it has improved a ton in the four years since).

While the 4th or 5th QB taken is unlikely to be anything close to Mahomes, ever, wouldn't the ceiling for a Fields or a Lance be pretty similar to a Mahomes?
Well in 2018, four QBs were taken ahead of Lamar Jackson, who's already been a league MVP. Mayfield looks like he's going to be good. Darnold isn't close to as good as Jackson, and he was taken 29 spots before Jackson. Josh Allen was a rough project early but now looks fantastic. Rosen looks awful, and he was taken 22 spots ahead of Jackson.

I think it's not easy to get the QB pick right. And here's the thing: We all know Lawrence is going #1, and rightfully so, but it's entirely possible that one of the QBs selected after him turns out to be better (maybe even much better).
 

sodenj5

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Well in 2018, four QBs were taken ahead of Lamar Jackson, who's already been a league MVP. Mayfield looks like he's going to be good. Darnold isn't close to as good as Jackson, and he was taken 29 spots before Jackson. Josh Allen was a rough project early but now looks fantastic. Rosen looks awful, and he was taken 22 spots ahead of Jackson.

I think it's not easy to get the QB pick right. And here's the thing: We all know Lawrence is going #1, and rightfully so, but it's entirely possible that one of the QBs selected after him turns out to be better (maybe even much better).
It’s possible, but I would say unlikely. Which is why teams at the top of the draft go for the safety of Trevor Lawrence. You know his floor is pretty darn high.

Also, we’re talking about Lamar Jackson like he didn’t win the Heisman Trophy. The reason people like Mayfield and Rosen went ahead of Lamar is because teams didn’t know how to use a QB like Lamar Jackson at the pro level. The Baltimore Ravens rebuilt their entire offense around him, which is what good teams do. If he ended up with a coaching staff that decided to try and force his square peg into a round hole, which happens all the time, we would likely be talking about Jackson as a bust.

Which goes back to the crux of any young QB or any young player period. Circumstance matters almost as much as their individual talent. If Lawrence goes to Jacksonville and Urban Meyer’s offense sucks and he decides after three years he’s bailing, maybe people are calling Lawrence a bust.
 

BaseballJones

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It’s possible, but I would say unlikely. Which is why teams at the top of the draft go for the safety of Trevor Lawrence. You know his floor is pretty darn high.

Also, we’re talking about Lamar Jackson like he didn’t win the Heisman Trophy. The reason people like Mayfield and Rosen went ahead of Lamar is because teams didn’t know how to use a QB like Lamar Jackson at the pro level. The Baltimore Ravens rebuilt their entire offense around him, which is what good teams do. If he ended up with a coaching staff that decided to try and force his square peg into a round hole, which happens all the time, we would likely be talking about Jackson as a bust.

Which goes back to the crux of any young QB or any young player period. Circumstance matters almost as much as their individual talent. If Lawrence goes to Jacksonville and Urban Meyer’s offense sucks and he decides after three years he’s bailing, maybe people are calling Lawrence a bust.
This is an excellent point.
 

tims4wins

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I blame Andre Ware.

The main knocks on him were being a system QB, occasionally bad mechanics, no experience under center or huddling & trying to force the ball into tight coverage too often.

Lots of GMs apparently had him pegged as a 2nd to 4th round pick.

I think the main thing they missed was that his work ethic, leadership, arm strength & talent (all of which were mentioned in scouting reports) meant that all his weaknesses were fixable ones.
Thanks, this all makes sense. Kind of crazy that Watson (current situation aside) went 12th too. Two of the top 4-5 QBs in the league and they weren't top 5 picks.
Well in 2018, four QBs were taken ahead of Lamar Jackson, who's already been a league MVP. Mayfield looks like he's going to be good. Darnold isn't close to as good as Jackson, and he was taken 29 spots before Jackson. Josh Allen was a rough project early but now looks fantastic. Rosen looks awful, and he was taken 22 spots ahead of Jackson.

I think it's not easy to get the QB pick right. And here's the thing: We all know Lawrence is going #1, and rightfully so, but it's entirely possible that one of the QBs selected after him turns out to be better (maybe even much better).
To me Jackson is a very different case due to his style of play. I'm still not sure how good he will be long term.
 

JM3

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Thanks, this all makes sense. Kind of crazy that Watson (current situation aside) went 12th too. Two of the top 4-5 QBs in the league and they weren't top 5 picks.
The primary knock on Watson coming out is quite similar to Fields actually - simplified offense with a tendency to focus on 1st read rather than progressing through multiple reads.
 

tims4wins

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The primary knock on Watson coming out is quite similar to Fields actually - simplified offense with a tendency to focus on 1st read rather than progressing through multiple reads.
Which to me says that at some point the Pats have to take a bit of a risk, and now seems like the right time to do it if it's not crazy cost prohibitive (i.e., giving up future firsts)

Edit: in other words, there is only a "perfect" QB prospect like once every 10 years (Luck, Lawrence, etc.). Otherwise there is going to be some projection and risk involved.
 
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ZMart100

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There is always a huge amount of risk involved. Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were considered roughly equally good prospects and look at their careers. Great QBs have come from late in the draft or not been drafted at all too.
 

SMU_Sox

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The primary knocks on both Fields and Watson are frustrating to me because they aren't true. I object to the Ohio State offense being simple or that Fields sticks too often to his first read. I know the data from PFF shows that is not the case as well as from Solak's contextualized QB evaluations that Jones threw more to his first read than anyone and Fields is in the normal range of outcomes throwing to his first read. Fields threw to his first read between 78-81% of the time. He goes through progressions.

Look, Fields had the lowest of the big 5 QBs yards come from screen passes. Mac Jones had close to 30% of his yards come from screens. Lawrence was 22-23%. Fields was like 6%. But Dwayne Haskins threw a ton of screens there so what changed aside from Urban Meyer? Day's system got the best out of Fields. Many times he was just doing half field reads for longer vertical shots. When you have the arm and accuracy like Fields does you can afford to wait for plays to develop. Day's offense required Fields to wait because it was a ton of vertical routes. Oh sure he had the usual mesh crossers which Haskins feasted on but Fields was even better at because he actually hit his receivers in stride (like all the fucking time too it was ridiculous). Day doesn't have a standard offense other than he likes power running backs. He adjusts his offense each year to the skillset of his players. Aside from NDSU and a handful of college programs most college QBs are in shotgun only and run less traditionally complex offenses compared to the NFL.

Mac Jones ran an RPO based offense with a ton of screen plays in it. He made fewer reads than Fields. I think if you look at how much RPO and/or screen stuff Mac Jones did you're talking about nearly half his plays. And yet here we are talking about Justin Fields and if he can process fast enough when his offense was a bunch of slower developing vertical plays. Sometimes I love the draft. Sometimes I get so frustrated by the god-awful and lazy narratives I want to punt my laptop into a black hole (Kyle Pitt's catch radius).

Oh just to be clear @JM3 this isn't about you personally - what you said was dead on 100% right. Those are what the narratives are and I am absolutely not trying to shoot you, the messenger. I am just tired of the bullshit.

Fields does bird-dog though and can stare down his first read too much and then be late delivering the ball. That is what got him in trouble vs NWU and Indiana. These are more mental problems that can be fixed but he might always be a tick slow getting through progressions. Luckily he has the accurate rocket to make up for that.

Fields will do the things like look off the safety and come back to a read. He does a lot of high end mental things you want to see out of a QB. It just amazes me that Josh Allen had all this buzz and Fields who actually knows where the fuck the ball is going when it comes out and does similar things to Allen is getting this kind of treatment. The excuses made on behalf of why some QBs underperform are comical when you look at the excuses made for why some QBs perform well.


QUICK edit: 58% of Jones plays are either RPOs, Play-Actions, or Screens. Drops mic.

Quick edit 2: I think I have pointed this out elsewhere but as the above piece mentions Field's is often guilty of holding onto the ball waiting for the big play.

By all the criteria listed about being pro-ready, Fields should be considered even more so. He’s poised in the pocket. He reads the field well, despite reports to the contrary. Ohio State’s offense had the most QB-demanding scheme of all of the 2021 prospects. There aren’t a lot of simple, predetermined reads in the Ohio State offense. Fields actually had to go through progressions.
He had one of the lowest RPO rates in college football. 70% of Fields’ yards came before the catch in 2020. Jones? Just 47%. Fields is far from a “one-read” quarterback, and the fact that that narrative exists for him but not Jones is negligent and ignorant.
 
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Beomoose

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Which is why taking a swing at a QB at 7-8 or 10-11 is less risky - it wouldn't cripple the team's future IMO.
Of course it's less risky, it's also almost certainly not going to produce a starter. The hit rate after the first round drops off a cliff, even with Bill picking the odds of getting a consistent starter out of 10-11 (or even 7-8) are in the low single digits.

This is not exclusively a draft thread, it's about QB options for the Pats. For those who don't believe in trading up or don't believe Bill will do it, what's the QB plan? After not getting one this year, what's the plan next year, hope we lost enough games in 21 to draft higher? Go after one of the rebuilding projects we avoided this year? Try again for Jimmy G?
 

JM3

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There is always a huge amount of risk involved. Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were considered roughly equally good prospects and look at their careers. Great QBs have come from late in the draft or not been drafted at all too.
The Leaf hype is pretty amazing in retrospect. Leaf was a bad-bodied unathletic guy who completed 55% of his passes & after being extremely lightly recruited out of high school, rose to prominence on the back of a 10-2 Washington State season which included 58-0 & 77-7 victories over Boise & SW Louisiana, & a 21-16 Rose Bowl loss to Michigan.

It turned out he had no work ethic (which probably should have been discovered pre-draft) & got injured a ton, which shouldn't have been particularly surprising either. He had to hire a personal trainer after his college career just to get down to 246 & skipped out on part of the mandatory rookie symposium.

He was also a whiner & a giant douche who blamed everyone else for his shortcomings. He reportedly was frequently golfing while other QBs watched tape.

Former Chargers GM Bobby Beathard:

Guys can be jerks, but I've never seen a guy that worked harder at alienating his teammates. Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison, they came to me and said this guy is killing me.
But yeah, obviously it's an inexact science & no matter how well & thoroughly you do your job, there's a chance whoever you draft will bust for whatever reason.
 
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