It’s amazing how little the draft matters this year outside of Qb. So spending a ton of draft capital and using late round picks to flesh out the roster makes a ton of sense.
What a weird time.
What a weird time.
Pats QB Options
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Watson would only cost $10.5m against the cap to a team that would acquire him (& $67.1m to the Texans lol).
That would jump to $35m in 2022, $37m in 2023, & $32m in 2024 & 2025.
It doesn't seem possible that Caserio could trade Watson to the Patriots and then continue living in the Houston area without 24/7 security, let alone continue as the Texans' GM.
That's not even close to acceptable from Houston's standpoint. The #15 pick, what could be a bottom 10 pick in the first round next year, a second, a third, and one year of Gilmore for Watson, and Houston doesn't come out of the deal with a QB in return?
Well let's be honest...they shouldn't trade him at ALL. He's one of the most valuable pieces in the entire NFL - a stud QB on a reasonable contract and under team control for like 5 more years, who is also young.
Atlanta slams the phone down, not sure whether they take the time to say anything, though.
Agreed but it really just depends on what other offers they get. The scenario where the Pats get Watson is where they make a somewhat competitive offer and either (a) Watson decides he wants to go to NE over other possibilities or (b) no other team is willing to offer something similar. Then Houston is faced with Watson just sitting out for a year+ or at least getting something back by trading him to the Pats.
Clearly, it's a very unlikely scenario, but it's not impossible.
doubt that gets you 4, but could get you 8 which is probably where the 4th guy has a chance to drop to. The QBs aren't all going top 5, it's always talked up about how 3 or 4 or 5 QBs are going to go in the top few picks, and every time one falls.
Wouldn't Cincinnati be a likelier partner? They're all set with Burrows and have a gazillion other holes to fill.
I don't think Cinci wants to move down, I think they want the chance at their pick of the best non-QB. Maybe they would, but CAR had been rumored as a team that might look to move down.
Detroit might make sense too actually, probably the spot to target actually since CAR might get on the board at 8 and decide that they can't pass on a QB.
Agreed, I think they want the Oregon lineman as a Burrow protector ... or, at least, they should
My thinking is something like #15, Gilmore (trade him elsewhere to get the pick you need, if necessary), next year's #1 and a 4th rounder this year and see if ATL will give up the #4 pick. It's a lot to give up, but it doesn't matter if you get the right QB. Take Fields or Lance and let him sit a year behind Cam.
If Gilmore is valued as a mid-2nd round pick, I think you've got a pretty solid offer, esp. if ATL thinks Gilmore can help their defense and give Matty Ice another year or two to compete. ATL could still target someone like Mac Jones at #15 if they wanted a long-term replacement for Ryan.
So...assuming there's no established QB on the radar, and assuming that BB and McD really dont want to start the season with a rookie at QB, they both must really think that the shortage of skill players and all the COVID stuff (from training camp to actually getting sick) kept Cam from being, say, a top 50% QB. (I can't imagine his ceiling is much higher than that, but that is a significant improvement as well.) Is top-half good enough?
To make the playoffs and maybe win a wildcard game with this team? Sure. Not to actually contend for a title.
But what if Caserio loves some of the picks he made for the Pats the last few years? The two TEs? Harry? Wino? Sony? Jackson instead of Gilmore? Maybe a few players who are now expendable along with draft picks are enough to entice him?
Probably just wish casting but hey, wth
A couple of things.
Gilmore has a year to go at an unrealistic compensation package (7.5 MM, IIRC),, so that would need to be renegotiated/extended if he's to have any trade value. If BB is thinking like that, a next step would be to restructure the deal now, and not at the last minute with the draft pending, in which case Gilmore might insist on no trade veto rights. If BB isn't thinking that way, maybe there's a little less time urgency to restructure his deal.
Also, he'll be in age 31 for the 2021 season. Would a rebuilding team attach that much value to a CB who's entering the age demographic that can decline quickly? Almost mandatory to bring in a team in a win now phase, I would think.
But, what do I know? (Don't answer)
If Gilmore would fetch a 2nd rounder I think he’d already be gone. He’s a good player, but he’s set to earn $17m in 2021 and is an UFA after that. You can get the 2021 cap number down with an extension, but that’s a big bet on an aging CB coming off an injury. Unless he needs to go for cap reasons, I think Gilmore will be back; he’s worth more as a player than as a trade chip.
Thing about Cam is, he wouldn't need to be THAT much better to be a positive given his salary. The big difference would be if he can push the ball down-field a bit more, and if he can get more positive plays. Those should be helped a lot by significant upgrades at 4 pass catching spots. His rushing value was good last year, he completed passes at an acceptable rate, INT% was generally acceptable. The big problem was other than a few chunk plays, his completions were often short and we didn't have the passcatchers who could make anything happpen with a 3 yard pass. Also, short and to his left was a real problem, he needs to clean up his footwork on those throws more than anything. If he had completed those like he did the same to his right he'd have been a much better QB.
Not sure why Gilmore getting paid $7.3m in new cash this year is "unrealistic". It just means he's already collected most of the $ in his 5/$65m - which is a good thing for him.
It also means if the Pats trade him, they have about $7.7m dead & save $7.3m.
Next year I'm pretty sure they'll be back to the normal ways & expecting a 3rd round comp pick if he walks, so definitely no point in trading him unless you're getting a good haul.
I could certainly see a team thinking that's a great rental opportunity, too at a controlled cost - or a team trading for him & overpaying him but keeping the 1st year hit low, either way.
It also means if the Pats trade him, they have about $7.7m dead & save $7.3m.
Next year I'm pretty sure they'll be back to the normal ways & expecting a 3rd round comp pick if he walks, so definitely no point in trading him unless you're getting a good haul.
I could certainly see a team thinking that's a great rental opportunity, too at a controlled cost - or a team trading for him & overpaying him but keeping the 1st year hit low, either way.
His cap hit is over 15M, but he only stands to make a shade under 7.5M in cash (salary and roster bonus). And any team trading for him wouldn’t absorb the cap dollars attributable to bonus/restructuring; that would stay with the Pats. Anyone trading for Gilmore is looking at about 7.5M in new cap commitment before any extension.
I don’t think this changes your overall point, which is that his age and pending FA status really limits his value on the trade market because a team trading for him needs to be a contender and be willing to give him a notable raise or an extension.
The reason I think he gets dealt is that I would be shocked if Gilmore step foot in camp at that salary, and do the Pats really want to have a protracted contract standoff for a 30 year old corner that won’t be here in 2022? Maybe they give him 4-5M in new cash as an adjustment if it becomes clear to Gilmore’s camp that there isn’t a taker elsewhere.
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Fair point. I guess I'm not sure what his market value would be after the season & what the market as a whole will be. I would expect he'd be worth at least a 4th, though.
Yeah, I saw, so I didn't bother to also correct you & just discussed the substantive point which I found valid that he might not garner a 3rd round comp in the year he would derive one for us as the market could be very strong next year as the cap bounces back.
I think this has been bit of an under-reported element of this spending spree. BB likely knew that, other than Thuney, there weren't many outgoing FA's likely to sign big-money deals, so the comp pick haul was likely starting at a low bar anyway. Plus, in that same vein, it makes more sense to put all your own big-money FA signings into one offseason to mitigate their effect on future comp picks. (I seem to recall MLB went thru this a few years back, where the system incentivized teams to sign multiple Tier One guys in a single year, rather than going after one every year.)
Furthermore, I bet BB/Kraft is banking on the rumors that with upcoming new TV deals, the cal will skyrocket again in couple years, so it will make sense to back-load a lot of these deals now.
If he's a placeholder for a player yet to be drafted then I think that part of the Cam equation has to be the fact that they don't have to start from scratch with another vet. A year under BB and Josh within the Patriot's system has a certain value to it. So now the question is what will it take to trade up with Atlanta? The Pats certainly have enough draft capitol to get a deal done, but given the activity of the past two days, the sense of urgency might up the price. I'm also curious if any combo of Gilmore, draft picks and another NFL ready piece could bring Watson to Foxborough.
Oh and it looks like Houston just brought in Tyrod Taylor
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31077342/sources-houston-texans-strike-1-year-deal-qb-tyrod-taylor
Eh, I don’t see that as much of a presage of a trade in and of itself. They didn’t have any other QB on the roster behind Watson, and as decent backups go that’s a good value.
Before Monday, I was of the mind that the Pats needed to use the draft to fill all the holes and thus should suffer thru a low-budget QB. Cam wasn’t my first choice from the bargain bin, (probably was Fitzmagic), but now after the shopping spree over the last two days, I want them to trade up to get one of the big four. If Lance or Fields could be as good as Justin Herbert was last year, this team can win the division.
Pats writers seem to be enjoying this tease.
View: https://twitter.com/tomecurran/status/1371936940602298368?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/tomecurran/status/1371936940602298368?s=20
It's especially dumb considering we already know the guarantees and that it's a pretty standard backup deal.
Tua, #3, and another pick go for Watson, and the Texans turn around and deal #3 to New England just to stick it to Miami. As well as a bunch of picks for the rebuild.
Justin Fields takes over for Cam after Quinn Williams lands a vicious hit on Newton injuring him in the process. Fields will proceed to lead the Patriots to a SuperBowl victory over the Bucs in '22.
Not disagreeing with your point, but on the flip side, should The Texans move Watson they'll need a replacement and if you can get that for backup $$$ don't you do that deal? I'm also guessing that the possibility of being a starter was part of Taylor's thinking in signing with Houston.
Sure, but considering Watson has said he's not going to play, you needed a high end backup either way. Taylor signing has no impact on the likelihood of a Watson trade.
How to get page hits.
Doubtful considering the Jets were on the leaked list of teams he's be interested in (along with 3 other teams that all have more to offer than us).
Don't know. It's really a story about how the Patriots have built out and left room, the Watson part is just wild conjecture that quickly glosses over the two key issues:
1. Watson didn't list NE on the teams he's interested in
2. It just handwaves the acquisition cost and other teams that have a lot more to offer.
I would venture to say that Watson would be a hell of a lot more interested in the Patriots than he was 48 hours ago.
True, and that is a good thing, but the problem with Watson has never really been about convincing him, it's that the Patriots don't have any good assets to trade. I mean we have been discussing how they might trade into the top 6 to get a QB, all the other suitors already have those picks plus a whole lot more.
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