Pats QB Options

[Sille Skrub]

Mike, I'm a complete college idiot. I havent watched a snap since the Leinart/Young bowl. What does Lance do well that you see translating to the next level?

I'm probably the last person who could really answer this. But the fact that he has exactly one career interception really intrigues me. It didn't come until his 17th game. I also think he will be highly motivated as he was passed up on by all the Power Five schools except Rutgers and Iowa (offer was for a linebacker position). The one that especially stings for him is his hometown Minnesota Golden Gophers. He has a big arm and can run, like a Steve McNair type.

Doug Farrar posted a great piece today that touches on some of your question.

He's a huge wild card in this draft because of the level of competition he has played and COVID. Fields has proven he can do it on a big time stage. The same cannot be said for Lance.

@SMU_Sox - My only hesitation to a full-blown Justin Fields mancrush is what happened at Georgia. Fields couldn't beat out Jake Fromm for the starting job, so he left. Of course he did great in Columbus, but Ohio State is a football factory. That team is absolutely stacked. Fields did really struggle in the Northwestern game when his #1 target Chris Olave was out because of COVID protocol.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Trey Lance is the ideal guy for the Patriots if they want to continue running this style of offense. He's a dynamic runner who is powerful similar to Cam or Steve McNair. However, his arm talent is better than Cam's ever was. Intangible-wise, according to people I know at NDSU it is off the charts. If Cam is back in the fold, there is no better mentor for Trey Lance.

"On the field Friday, most everything with Lance’s arm looked familiar, and impressive. The ball can sail on Lance’s intermediate throws, and that was on display a bit during Friday’s workout. His misses were small; they can be fine-tuned.

Lance’s draw, though, was on full display Friday: The explosion he generates when he drives the ball off his back foot might be unmatched in this draft. When Lance is able to get his feet under him in the pocket, either via a straight drop or play action, the ball just hums.

In short: He makes the hard look easy.

“There was improvement from what you saw on tape in the fall. Which is encouraging to me. He was very crisp; being under center is not new to him. Being able to set up in the pocket, that was good,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said after Lance’s workout. “(His) short, front stride — he’s shortened that out a little bit, gets his foot in the ground and you saw more rotation with his upper body.

“The footwork was outstanding. … The other thing (they) wanted to showcase was his delivery. There are times he can get a little elongated and the ball will drop down a little bit, I thought he was more consistent with that today.”

https://theathletic.com/2392911/2021/03/12/2021-nfl-draft-pro-days-news-results-qb-trey-lance-puts-on-66-throw-show/

 

[Sille Skrub]

BB loves himself some intangibles. Man, I bet he’s the target.

 

[jsinger121]

BB loves himself some intangibles. Man, I bet he’s the target.

He didn't even travel to see his pro day yesterday which is kind of mind boggling.

 

[Sille Skrub]

He didn't even travel to see his pro day yesterday which is kind of mind boggling.

He doesn’t go when he really likes someone, does he? I could be wrong. Keep us off the radar etc...

 

[E5 Yaz]

He didn't even travel to see his pro day yesterday which is kind of mind boggling.

He didn't go, but the team was represented there

 

[RedOctober3829]

He didn't even travel to see his pro day yesterday which is kind of mind boggling.

I tend to agree with you here, but they can watch the tape of the pro day and his actual game reps plus meet with him virtually. It's not ideal, but this whole process since last year is not ideal. Matt Groh was there to watch the pro day in person who is their top national scout.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Chris Simms isn’t very high on Lance. So, now I really want him.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Chris Simms isn’t very high on Lance. So, now I really want him.

You ever wonder if Simms, Parker and Kellerman compare notes and decide which players that the majority of people like they'll choose to nay-say?

 

[Koufax]

What chance do the Pats have of getting him? Tankathon has him going to the Lions at #7 (and the Pats getting Mac Jones).

 

[BigSoxFan]

What chance do the Pats have of getting him? Tankathon has him going to the Lions at #7 (and the Pats getting Mac Jones).

The have the ability to trade up to get him if he’s in the 6-8 range. 15 + 46 gets you close so you’re probably adding 2022 pick to seal the deal, if that’s the decided path forward. If he rises to #4, you’re talking 2 #1’s as the starting point.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The thing that scares me with Lance but that I also think is fixable (and he’s young) is his accuracy. He has some of the worst accuracy I’ve seen for a better prospect. The issues are mechanical and you can see he started to fix it. His lone 2020 mechanics are much better than his 2019. He just needs more time and live reps to get it corrected. He’s also a hair slow pulling the trigger. You can see a few plays he flat out misses his tight end who was wide open on a seam route. He sees him open but delays throwing the ball until defenders finally react. Then he throws the ball too high and off target from where the TE was sitting. The thing is there he was a first year starter. There are questions about can he be aggressive enough and will he ever have much anticipation.

I haven’t seen his high school tape but Quincy Avery has. Lance apparently was aggressive as a HS QB. So he has it but he was coached to be conservative at NDSU. I’m not sure I completely buy that his hesitation is all from coaching but it’s normal for guys to hold onto the ball longer when they are adjusting to the speed of the game at a new level and the change in the level of separation their receivers get. Lance is a perfectionist and only had something like 4 turnover worthy plays all of 2019.

I would bet on Lance to put it all together. It might take a year or two but I’d make that bet. Bet on the hardworking elite athletes. Odds are you will strike out anyway but if you keep playing that game you will get a HR.


I have some thoughts on Fields and the NU game @Sille Skrub that I’ll articulate later in full because it’s worth a discussion. I think there are some mitigating factors like they had limited practices their final month of the season as well only played 2/5 weeks before that game. He looked rusty. The way he looked against Clemson (he olde rebound game) and the speed of his progressions were really impressive to me.

I would take either in a heartbeat. However I think the odds are higher that Justin Fields slides.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

What are your thoughts on Lawrence? This might be a weird question since he’s so good and is going number 1 overall, period, but the dearth of hard assessments on him is nonetheless frustrating because I would love to better understand what his weaknesses are from a technical perspective. Nobody is perfect, or a guarantee, even if he, Peyton and Luck are as close as you may get to a slam dunk at the position.

I’ve seen tons of his games, but I’ve not actually watched his all-22. Would be interesting to hear your perspective on what specifically could end up holding him back from greatness/making him merely another good QB (if not a bust).

Certainly, anybody can see he isn’t Lamar as a runner and I don’t think his arm strength is Mahomes level, but I’m not sure not being 99th percentile in running ability or arm strength are ‘weaknesses.’

 

[SMU_Sox]

Lawrence can press when things get difficult? Lawrence has occasionally had bouts of inaccuracy. The Clemson offense is basic? I am stretching here. But those are my biggest 3 with him. Oh and a bonus fourth: He is pretty skinny at 6'6" and 213 pounds (granted he has not been able to lift since surgery but that's scrawny).

 

[Sille Skrub]

Looking forward to it @SMU_Sox

Thanks!

 

[Beomoose]

Every throw by Lance during his Pro Day.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b_6dAK-aRg

 

[soxhop411]

So does today’s FA blitz by the pats raise the chances of trading up for a QB in the first round?

Pats rarely have had as big of a FA splurge like they did This offseason.

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

So does today’s FA blitz by the pats raise the chances of trading up for a QB in the first round?

Pats rarely have had as big of a FA splurge like they did This offseason.

I think so. They've addressed areas of need, and might now be more willing to trade picks rather than use them on, for example, an EDGE. Plus the deals are for multiple years, so even if they want to draft someone and develop him for a season, the moves they've made today make trading up make the most sense.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

With regard to the Pats moving up to take a QB, the question is how far do they have to move up and what would it take to do it?

 

[Cellar-Door]

So does today’s FA blitz by the pats raise the chances of trading up for a QB in the first round?

Pats rarely have had as big of a FA splurge like they did This offseason.

maybe? I don't think they are directly related. The Patriots had a lot of cap space for the first time in forever, and they spent it to get the guys they wanted, I don't think that says anything about their plans in the draft. There wasn't some reason to leave the cap empty, and most of the guys they got are pretty young.

 

[Saints Rest]

My guess is that BB will only move up as high as 8, and even if he does so, it is just as likely to be for Parsons or Pitts as for a QB.

I imagine we will see a lot of shuttling up and down throughout the draft, including moving into next years draft. Basically a return to BB’s old draft SOP.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

But Carolina has 8 and don't they need a QB? I think 7 (Detroit) would be as high as they go. Step in in front of the Panthers if the guy they want is still there.

(But, tbh, I think it's more likely than not that they don't take a QB in the first round.)

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

But Carolina has 8 and don't they need a QB? I think 7 (Detroit) would be as high as they go. Step in in front of the Panthers if the guy they want is still there.

(But, tbh, I think it's more likely than not that they don't take a QB in the first round.)

Maybe this goes to the "mock us" thread- but I was seeing the Pats go to 7 with 15/46/2022 2nd . But obviously only if Lance is there. And that is based on nothing other than the SoSH zweitgeist.

 

[tims4wins]

Maybe this is Pats colored glasses, but doesn’t it feel like if they had a competent QB on the roster they would be a true contender at this point? E.g., plug in Jimmy and I think they’re a top 4 AFC team, at worst?

 

[BaseballJones]

Maybe this is Pats colored glasses, but doesn’t it feel like if they had a competent QB on the roster they would be a true contender at this point? E.g., plug in Jimmy and I think they’re a top 4 AFC team, at worst?

100%. Behind KC, Baltimore, and Buffalo. But then with a good QB there’s no reason to think they couldn’t beat any of those teams.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Maybe this is Pats colored glasses, but doesn’t it feel like if they had a competent QB on the roster they would be a true contender at this point? E.g., plug in Jimmy and I think they’re a top 4 AFC team, at worst?

I think the defense is great. It could be a top 3 unit.

But to throw water on the day: I think the passing game - while certainly better - is still underwhelming. I know its exciting to see the signings, but neither Agholor or Bourne are better than #2 receivers. Jonnu is a solid TE, but it's not like hes prime Gronk or Gonzalez. The line is solid, but no more so than last season. And Cam is still Cam. The best skill player we have is an above average TE.

I think the team is, obviously, better. But this offense is middle of the road. They're going to have trouble scoring when the run gets slowed down.

Still, it's much more fun than what we saw last year.

 

[lexrageorge]

I can see Bill trading up for a QB in the draft. But I don't expect said QB to have much impact on the 2021 season. Cam is the veteran going into training camp to take the pressure off the young guy. OL is probably the same as last year, but that was good enough most days. WR/TE are much improved from the dreck of last season; obviously not enough to compete with KC and Tampa, but the improvements should pay dividends. A good draft would do wonders for this team down the road, but at least now there's some depth to the roster.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Here's a divergent thought. What if...
With a full offseason/preseason the 1st year tight ends make the expected leap?
With a full offseason/preseason the QBs and the WRs/TEs gain rapport?
With a full offseason/preseason, the QB knows where he will be and knows what is expected?
With a full offseason/preseason, the QB knows the offense, so can focus on mechanics?

Too much to think/hope? Maybe. Possible? Surely.

yah yah-- don't call me shirley.

 

[soxhop411]

I think so. They've addressed areas of need, and might now be more willing to trade picks rather than use them on, for example, an EDGE. Plus the deals are for multiple years, so even if they want to draft someone and develop him for a season, the moves they've made today make trading up make the most sense.

Yah. That’s where my head is, since all of these FA signings won’t mean anything if Cam performs like he did last year. If they want to get a QB they can use their draft capital without it affecting them like it would in the past

 

[Saints Rest]

I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s another round/flurry of QB moves post-draft, once teams know where the big 5 land.

I mean league-wide which may then allow the Pats, assuming they don’t draft one of the big 5, to scoop up another vet to compete with Cam.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Maybe this is Pats colored glasses, but doesn’t it feel like if they had a competent QB on the roster they would be a true contender at this point? E.g., plug in Jimmy and I think they’re a top 4 AFC team, at worst?

I continue to believe that Jimmy G is BB's #1 choice, even more so now. Put him on this roster, with Cam filling in when JG inevitably gets hurt, and you have very solid team. At this point in his career, I just don't think that BB has any interest in developing a rookie.

 

[bsj]

I continue to believe that Jimmy G is BB's #1 choice, even more so now. Put him on this roster, with Cam filling in when JG inevitably gets hurt, and you have very solid team. At this point in his career, I just don't think that BB has any interest in developing a rookie.

Could they even afford JG now?

 

[Ferm Sheller]

How would they even obtain him? The Niners need a QB, and although they might be able to take someone at #12, that person likely won't be counted on to start this year.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

How would they even obtain him? The Niners need a QB, and although they might be able to take someone at #12, that person likely won't be counted on to start this year.

Sam Darnold? Tua? I think there is still going to be plenty of QB movement related to the draft.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Sam Darnold? Tua? I think there is still going to be plenty of QB movement related to the draft.

Possible, I guess. I hope you're right -- I hope that there is a lot of QB movement.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Possible, I guess. I hope you're right -- I hope that there is a lot of QB movement.

It's probably just wishcasting on my part, but I do have trouble believing that Bill wants to develop a rookie QB.

 

[DJnVa]

Sam Darnold? Tua? I think there is still going to be plenty of QB movement related to the draft.

I can’t see Tua going anywhere except Houston. Fins don’t have Fitzpatrick any longer, so if he goes a QB that can slot in and start is coming back.

 

[Captaincoop]

Is Bill really going to give Cam the keys to this fully loaded Lamborghini? I hope not.

Here's a somewhat depressing thought - according to the trade value chart, the Pats would have to trade their entire draft just to move up to #4, where it is still possible that 3 QBs are already off the board. It's bad luck that two division rivals are holding #2 and #3.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

Can't see Belichick going all in like this with Cam...still think a move to his guy, Jimmy G, is the most likely (JC Jackson tender / trade?), if not, then a bold move up the draft board to 3 or 4 (costing a ton).

 

[boca]

Can't see Belichick going all in like this with Cam...still think a move to his guy, Jimmy G, is the most likely (JC Jackson tender / trade?), if not, then a bold move up the draft board to 3 or 4 (costing a ton).

Bagging a QB in the draft makes the most sense you'd think. Let them sit behind Cam at the start of the season and see how it develops.

 

[scott bankheadcase]

Jimmy G becomes available only 1 way in my opinion: Niners package Bosa and some other stuff for Watson.

Jimmy then can be cut (with almost no cap hit) and can sign with the Patriots for whatever price fits. But I don't see any of it happening without the Watson move. A relatively win-now Niners team isn't going with Mitch Trubisky next year and all the start now rookies will be gone by pick 12.

 

[Sille Skrub]

Is Bill really going to give Cam the keys to this fully loaded Lamborghini?

Nope. Odds are he's going to now splurge at the QB position as well.

F it, just go get Watson now.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I'd like to see someone here propose a realistic deal for Watson. I just can't see one at all.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

I don’t think Bill yet has a set plan at QB. Worst case, Cam now has way more options to throw to and hopefully improves with a full offseason. But they now are also well-positioned to integrate a draft pick over the next two years, and are also a much more attractive landing spot if a QB they like becomes available via trade or free agency after getting cut or what have you.

The benefit of making all these moves now is that Belichick can to some extent sit back and see how the QB market/draft board develops, knowing he can sacrifice some short-term draft assets as opportunities arise because they’ve filled key positions with vets.

 

[DJnVa]

Is Bill really going to give Cam the keys to this fully loaded Lamborghini? I hope not.

Here's a somewhat depressing thought - according to the trade value chart, the Pats would have to trade their entire draft just to move up to #4, where it is still possible that 3 QBs are already off the board. It's bad luck that two division rivals are holding #2 and #3.

Fields would be fine.

 

[Saints Rest]

I'd like to see someone here propose a realistic deal for Watson. I just can't see one at all.

I'd like to see Miguel sort out all of these new signings to see what is left in the till. They still need a center (actually, they need two). I'm not sure how they could fit Watson in this year, when his contract is still small, let alone next.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd like to see someone here propose a realistic deal for Watson. I just can't see one at all.

I have no idea how they'd fit Watson in cap-wise, unless Gilmore was 100% going the other way, which probably would be required anyway, and which BB may already have planned for with the addition of Mills.

So...

2021 1st
2021 2nd
2021 3rd
2022 1st
Gilmore

That's two #1s, a #2, a #3, and a pro-bowl corner still in his prime, for Watson. I still don't know that Houston would do it, but that's not a bad offer at all.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I'd like to see someone here propose a realistic deal for Watson. I just can't see one at all.

They don’t have the cap space, it would take a cap miracle.

I’d use some capital and move into the top 10 for Jones.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Can't see Belichick going all in like this with Cam...still think a move to his guy, Jimmy G, is the most likely (JC Jackson tender / trade?), if not, then a bold move up the draft board to 3 or 4 (costing a ton).

Going all in like this works specifically because he has Cam for so incredibly cheap. Now he probably would take another QB if they were cheap too, but trading for a high price QB is really unlikely. A trade up in the draft is possible, but also.... he might well think this is the ideal offense for Cam, who Bill seems to think pretty highly of.

They don’t have the cap space, it would take a cap miracle.

I’d use some capital and move into the top 10 for Jones.

Wait... trade UP for Mac Jones? Mac Jones at 15 is a major overdraft of his talent level, trading up to do it is insane.

 

[lexrageorge]

I do think sometimes it's important to hear what Belichick has said and to take him at his word. He has spoken glowingly of Cam Newton (as has McDaniels) when given the opportunity. So, for better or worse, Cam is the team's #1 QB.

Watson was likely unattainable from the get-go, and we still don't know if the Texans are even going to trade him. The 49'ers have given zero indication that they would make JG available, and I'm not convinced that the Pats want to trade for him anyway.

At the same time, there's nothing (aside from the Jets and Dolphins) to prevent the Pats from either (a) trading up; or (b) drafting an under-the-radar QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. Either way, the draftee will likely spend at least the start of the season holding a clipboard and running the scout team in drills. But at least the margin of error for the QB is now quite a bit larger than it was going into last season.