Pats QB Options

Status
Not open for further replies.
Beomoose

Beomoose

is insoxicated
SoSH Member
May 28, 2006
21,448
Exiled
Zincman said:
I took a look at QB's drafted in the first 2 rounds over the last 8 years. You can reach some interesting conclusions

Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick
2012 Andrew Luck 1 2013 E.J. Manuel 16 2014 Blake Bortles 3
Robert Griffin III 2 Geno Smith 40 Johnny Manziel 22
Ryan Tannehill 8 Teddy Bridewater 32
Branden Weeden 22 Derek Carr 36
Brock Osweiler 57 Jimmy Garropolo 62
Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick
2015 Jameis Winston 1 2016 Jared Goff 1 2017 Mitch Trubisky 2
Marcus Mariota 2 Carson Wentz 2 Patrick Mahomes 10
Paxton Lynch 26 DeShon Kizer 52
Chris Hackenberg 52
Year QB #pick Year QB #pick Year QB #pick
2018 Baker Mayfield 1 2019 Kyle Murray 1 2020 Joe Burrow 1
Sam Darnold 3 Daniel Jones 6 Tua Tagliavoa 5
Josh Allen 7 Dwayne Haskins 15 Justin Herbert 6
Lamar Jackson 32 Drew Lock 42 Kyle Love 26
Jaylen Hurts 53


If you want to get a franchise QB, do you have have a fairly high draft pick? It seems so. None of the 2nd round selections have managed to have any significant impact with the exception of Jimmy G and that jury is still out. Indeed the QBs that have had significant success (Luck, Mayfield, Tannehill, Allen, Mahomes, ) have all been picked inside the top 10. Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson are slight outliers at 32 and 36.

If you have a top pick does that insure you'll likely get a franchise QB? Doesn't seem that way. The bust % is very high considering the capital spent. Branden Weeden, EJ Manuel, RG III and Blake Bortles must haunt their draft rooms.

Looking good are Herbert, Tua, Murray, but time will tell.

The Pats aren't getting into the top 5 unless they mortgage their future and that risk is enhanced by the likelihood that there is great bust potential even in that rarified atmosphere. Do you want to go all in on Trey Lance when the needs of this roster are so multiple. I don't. I just don't see BB rebuilding in this fashion. Rather, I expect him to trade down the board frequently to acquire as many assets as possible, giving him a chance to take multiple swings in a WR rich draft and to draft more than one LB. Lots to fix here and you cant do that by taking a expensive flyer.
Click to expand...
The Athletic's Jeff Howe put a piece out a few days ago which reinforces your position that, based on drafts since 2000, franchise QBs drafted outside the 1st round are exceedingly rare. But the data may also indicate, depending how you feel about WCAV, the odds that a team picking in R1 will end up with a bust or below-average QB aren't as scary high.

First round: 53 QBs
Category Number % of First-Rounders
1st team All-Pros 5 9.4%
Pro Bowlers 24 45.3%
WCAV ≥ 90 11 20.8%
WCAV ≤ 30 18 34.0%
< 20 starts 6 11.3%


Second round: 20 QBs
Category Number % of 2nd-Rounders
1st team All-Pros 1 5.0%
Pro Bowlers 3 15.0%
WCAV ≥ 90 1 5.0%
WCAV ≤ 30 16 80.0%
< 20 starts 8 40%


And so on down the rounds.

On the other hand, Howe's been campaigning for a trade up to pick Lance so he may be cherry-picking to support that stance.
 
E5 Yaz

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,484
Oregon
Ferm Sheller

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
20,648
He's going to be 33 in a couple of weeks. Wonder what his price of acquisition would be. Seems like the 49ers are interested in him.
 
jsinger121

jsinger121

@jsinger121
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
17,682
I wouldn’t give up the 15th pick for him. Never been a fan of Stafford as he’s pretty much a better version of Drew Bledsoe.
 
Cellar-Door

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,645
Indy should give up 21+ for him without hesitation. He's still really good, and they would be contenders with him and a few FA additions
 
EvilEmpire

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
17,270
Washington
I could see Indy giving up a first round pick for Stafford.

Edit: yeah, what CD said. They have a solid team with a good offensive line. Try to get Stafford another weapon or two and they can compete.
 
amfox1

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
6,826
The back of your computer
Ferm Sheller said:
I was thinking more like a second and a mid-rounder.
Click to expand...
I think that's the bid-ask. If I'm the Pats, I offer #46 (2nd rd) and #120 (4th rd). #15 is tough to offer unless I'm getting something back (#71, perhaps).

I agree that Indy seems like the best fit and they have sufficient draft capital to get him. #21 and #53 (or #85) for Stafford and #39 (or #71), perhaps.
 
mauf

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 22, 2008
36,049
a shotgun shack in a swanky suburb
E5 Yaz said:
Hohler get a new job?

"Resistance to hard instruction" sure sounds like it came from Pederson or someone on his staff. And they're going with a money quote from a single veteran player?
Click to expand...
Wentz was perhaps the league’s worst QB, was given an unbelievably long time to right the ship because of his contract status, and whined when he was finally benched. This all played out more or less publicly, on a team that had a real chance to make the playoffs until Week 16. I agree that the quote had to come from someone on the coaching staff, but I can’t blame them — Wentz was a massive prima donna this season.
 
sodenj5

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
6,621
CT
Cellar-Door

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,645
tims4wins said:
View: https://twitter.com/philaperry/status/1353123633254846465?s=21
Click to expand...
Yeah, if he's implying Gilmore I'm not seeing it.
Alex Smith had a significantly difference track record than Stafford, was on a 1 year deal and needed to be extended, while Fuller was on an incredibly cheap rookie deal.
Stafford is on a good 2 year deal, and Gilmore is expiring (and older)

Edit- also KC was a team going to Mahomes and a playoff run with that cap space. DET has no QB and is entering a rebuild, why would they want a veteran CB?
 
McBride11

McBride11

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
22,161
Durham, NC
Cellar-Door said:
I don;t think the Patriots want to give up 15 to get Stafford.

On the other hand, there is basically no chance you get Stafford without giving up a 1st. Way too many teams with QB holes who will be willing to:

I think Orlovsky has a good list here
View: https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1353127014396538881
Click to expand...
Pitt, if they cut Ben, has like 9m in cap space. Stafford costs ~20m. They can restructure or cut some people, but those people are like their top OL to cup or losing players like Dupree.
Pitt is in a pickle with their cap and players
 
Harry Hooper

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,605
Cellar-Door said:
Yeah, if he's implying Gilmore I'm not seeing it.
Alex Smith had a significantly difference track record than Stafford, was on a 1 year deal and needed to be extended, while Fuller was on an incredibly cheap rookie deal.
Stafford is on a good 2 year deal, and Gilmore is expiring (and older)

Edit- also KC was a team going to Mahomes and a playoff run with that cap space. DET has no QB and is entering a rebuild, why would they want a veteran CB?
Click to expand...
Yeah, the most important thing about the Smith trade for KC is that he actually was traded (cap relief) and not cut. The actual return was not the prime concern.
 
SoxinSeattle

SoxinSeattle

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 6, 2003
2,373
Here
Cellar-Door said:
Yeah, if he's implying Gilmore I'm not seeing it.
Alex Smith had a significantly difference track record than Stafford, was on a 1 year deal and needed to be extended, while Fuller was on an incredibly cheap rookie deal.
Stafford is on a good 2 year deal, and Gilmore is expiring (and older)

Edit- also KC was a team going to Mahomes and a playoff run with that cap space. DET has no QB and is entering a rebuild, why would they want a veteran CB?
Click to expand...
I think he was just saying that Detroit might not get a massive haul for Stafford.

I would be stoked to get him but I think other teams will offer more.
 
mauf

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 22, 2008
36,049
a shotgun shack in a swanky suburb
E5 Yaz said:
Your evidence for this is what?
Click to expand...
It’s in the part of the post you didn’t quote. I literally can’t think of another instance in my 40 years as a sports fan where a player who played as badly as Wentz did made as much of a stink as he did about being benched. Unless you think all the reports during the season about division in the locker room and Wentz wanting to be traded were bogus.
 
E5 Yaz

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,484
Oregon
mauf said:
It’s in the part of the post you didn’t quote.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I didn't find much concrete in hearsay and supposition. I mean, he could well be a prima donna ... but I sort of think that a starting quarterback who gets upset about being benched is the type of quarterback I'd prefer on my team.

We're just going to have to disagree on the definition of evidence
 
mauf

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 22, 2008
36,049
a shotgun shack in a swanky suburb
E5 Yaz said:
Yeah, I didn't find much concrete in hearsay and supposition. I mean, he could well be a prima donna ... but I sort of think that a starting quarterback who gets upset about being benched is the type of quarterback I'd prefer on my team.

We're just going to have to disagree on the definition of evidence
Click to expand...
It’s fine if he’s upset. But he spent most of the season absolutely killing his team. He needed to keep his feelings about being benched to himself. He has demonstrated himself to be a me-first, entitled little shit. I want him nowhere near the Patriots.
 
Cellar-Door

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,645
SoxinSeattle said:
I think he was just saying that Detroit might not get a massive haul for Stafford.

I would be stoked to get him but I think other teams will offer more.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I don't think that is what he was saying at all. And if he was he sucks at his job since they aren't comparable players or situations.
 
SMU_Sox

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,920
Dallas
Ultimately I would imagine teams in a different roster cycle then the Pats like SF, WFT, DEN, situations with more talent on the offense and closer to competing would want to offer more than the Pats could.
 
Average Game James

Average Game James

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 28, 2016
4,351
McBride11 said:
Pitt, if they cut Ben, has like 9m in cap space. Stafford costs ~20m. They can restructure or cut some people, but those people are like their top OL to cup or losing players like Dupree.
Pitt is in a pickle with their cap and players
Click to expand...
My initial reaction to Pitt was no way, but they’d be in more or less the same cap situation trading for Stanford as they would be with Big Ben. Roethlisberger’s cap number for 2021 is like $41 million, and they’d save $19 million if they cut or trade him (roughly what they’d be taking on if they traded for Stanford). The Stafford money includes $9.5 million of base salary, so they could presumably restructure to convert some of that into a signing bonus and spread it out over a couple years which would get the number down into the mid-30s. I agree other teams make more sense, but Pitt isn’t as ridiculous as it seems at first blush.
 
DJnVa

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,037
DJnVa

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,037
E5 Yaz said:
Neither do I ... but because he appears broken and he makes too much money
Click to expand...
Why is he broken? He played all 16 last year, and since 2011 only missed games in 2019. He threw for 4000 yards, 26/10 for THE LIONS.

Maybe he is, I'm not really plugged into Detroit, but I don't see it from a cursory look.
 
j44thor

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
11,015
DJnVa said:
Why is he broken? He played all 16 last year, and since 2011 only missed games in 2019. He threw for 4000 yards, 26/10 for THE LIONS.

Maybe he is, I'm not really plugged into Detroit, but I don't see it from a cursory look.
Click to expand...
The Lions have Marvin Jones and a top 10 TE and up and coming RB in Swift. All would be significantly better than anything NE can trot out at skill positions. Let's also not forget more than half his games are played in a dome.
Stafford would be an upgrade over Newton but what does that get you to 8-8 in the AFCE?
This team needs an overhaul, Stafford would just ensure they aren't drafting top 10 for the 2 years he was here.
The cupboard is bare, if it means a couple down years to significantly improve for the next 5-6 after that then sign me up. Newton already screwed that up to some degree this year. I'd really hope Bill learned this year that the talent level on this team isn't good enough to seriously compete and putting band-aids on a gaping wound isn't helping anything.
 
Mystic Merlin

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,892
Hartford, CT
j44thor said:
The Lions have Marvin Jones and a top 10 TE and up and coming RB in Swift. All would be significantly better than anything NE can trot out at skill positions. Let's also not forget more than half his games are played in a dome.
Stafford would be an upgrade over Newton but what does that get you to 8-8 in the AFCE?
This team needs an overhaul, Stafford would just ensure they aren't drafting top 10 for the 2 years he was here.
The cupboard is bare, if it means a couple down years to significantly improve for the next 5-6 after that then sign me up. Newton already screwed that up to some degree this year. I'd really hope Bill learned this year that the talent level on this team isn't good enough to seriously compete and putting band-aids on a gaping wound isn't helping anything.
Click to expand...
I think Bill knew they team wasn’t very talented, he didn’t have to learn it.
 
jsinger121

jsinger121

@jsinger121
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
17,682
j44thor said:
The Lions have Marvin Jones and a top 10 TE and up and coming RB in Swift. All would be significantly better than anything NE can trot out at skill positions. Let's also not forget more than half his games are played in a dome.
Stafford would be an upgrade over Newton but what does that get you to 8-8 in the AFCE?
This team needs an overhaul, Stafford would just ensure they aren't drafting top 10 for the 2 years he was here.
The cupboard is bare, if it means a couple down years to significantly improve for the next 5-6 after that then sign me up. Newton already screwed that up to some degree this year. I'd really hope Bill learned this year that the talent level on this team isn't good enough to seriously compete and putting band-aids on a gaping wound isn't helping anything.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. Band aids in won’t help and it will continue to produce 7-9 and 8-8 seasons. The roster very bare in many positions including the most important position. Going 7-9 was a killer in my opinion because it set them back probably at least a year or 2 as they have zero plan at QB.
 
DJnVa

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,037
j44thor said:
The Lions have Marvin Jones and a top 10 TE and up and coming RB in Swift. All would be significantly better than anything NE can trot out at skill positions. Let's also not forget more than half his games are played in a dome.
Stafford would be an upgrade over Newton but what does that get you to 8-8 in the AFCE?
This team needs an overhaul, Stafford would just ensure they aren't drafting top 10 for the 2 years he was here.
The cupboard is bare, if it means a couple down years to significantly improve for the next 5-6 after that then sign me up. Newton already screwed that up to some degree this year. I'd really hope Bill learned this year that the talent level on this team isn't good enough to seriously compete and putting band-aids on a gaping wound isn't helping anything.
Click to expand...
That's answering a question I didn't ask. I asked why he was broken. Even if I undersold the Lions, none of that points to Stafford being broken.
 
Harry Hooper

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,605
Mortensen indicates Watson wants out of Houston, no matter who the coach is:

No matter whom the Houston Texans hire as head coach, Deshaun Watson still wants out. According to a report Sunday afternoon on Postseason NFL Countdown, ESPN insider Chris Mortensen cited sources with knowledge of Watson's thinking in underlining the star quarterback's displeasure in Houston. Texans owner Cal McNair remains a make-or-break factor for Watson.
Click to expand...
Link
 
Mystic Merlin

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,892
Hartford, CT
Houston is going to get fucked in any trade. The situation doesn’t seem salvageable if his non negotiable is the owner, and he has a no trade clause. What are they gonna do, stick him on the reserve list for next year? He isn’t a left guard (Mankins) or even a receiver (McCardell), dude plays the most important position on the field and is the face of your franchise.

Watson’s camp is clearly working the media well here.
 
NJ_Sox_Fan

NJ_Sox_Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 2, 2006
10,782
NJ
Mystic Merlin said:
Houston is going to get fucked in any trade. The situation doesn’t seem salvageable if his non negotiable is the owner, and he has a no trade clause. What are they gonna do, stick him on the reserve list for next year? He isn’t a left guard (Mankins) or even a receiver (McCardell), dude plays the most important position on the field and is the face of your franchise.

Watson’s camp is clearly working the media well here.
Click to expand...
Agreed, which gives me at least some hope Patriots can figure something out as I think Watson will have a lot of control over where he winds up. Not that Patriots are necessarily the most attractive option, but I do think their overall track record with BB at the helm is appealing to a lot of players. Certainly more than going to an organization like the Jets.
 
j44thor

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
11,015
NJ_Sox_Fan said:
Agreed, which gives me at least some hope Patriots can figure something out as I think Watson will have a lot of control over where he winds up. Not that Patriots are necessarily the most attractive option, but I do think their overall track record with BB at the helm is appealing to a lot of players. Certainly more than going to an organization like the Jets.
Click to expand...
Actually reports are the Jets is Watson's first choice because of Saleh.
 
soxhop411

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,463
Rodgers talking like he wants out
View: https://twitter.com/mattschneidman/status/1353494411758460934
Aaron Rodgers: “A lot of guys futures, they’re uncertain, myself included.”
Click to expand...
“@jasonjwilde: Aaron Rodgers sure sounded like a guy saying goodbye.”
Click to expand...
View: https://twitter.com/jasonjwilde/status/1353494954614652928
View: https://twitter.com/mattschneidman/status/1353495075129593856?s=20
Aaron Rodgers used the words future, finality and gutted multiple times. He also just finished his presser thanking all the writers for their questions all year. He says he'll always be thankful for this season, says "thank you" again and then his press conference ended.
Click to expand...
 
Mystic Merlin

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,892
Hartford, CT
They just lost like 30 minutes prior, hard to read much into those comments. Roethlisberger has flat out suggested he would retire several times at the end of prior seasons, hasn’t happened yet.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom