Pats QB options in 2021

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Dec 28, 2020

I would love to get Stafford or Ryan.

Bowhemian · Dec 28, 2020

What about Haskins?

Ale Xander · Dec 28, 2020

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
I would love to get Stafford or Ryan.

Agreed. Both are top 22 all-time in QBR, young enough (especially Ryan), to still be very productive.

Have to get them a weapon though. We don't really have approaching Megatron or JJ.

Marvin Jones/Stafford combo coming here would be nice.

cshea · Dec 28, 2020

Sign a vet and keep taking swings in the draft until something clicks.

I'd be OK with Dalton next year. Of the higher end, maybe-they-get-cut-loose candidates, I'd prefer Jimmy, though his injury issues are worrisome. Ryan and Stafford have higher ceilings but their availability may be less realistic than Jimmy.

Lawrence, Wilson and Fields seem like they will all be off the board when the Patriots pick. The Florida and Alabama kids are being discussed, but I'll let the draft guys who are way smarter than me sort out if it's worth picking one of them in the first round, or if they should take a non-QB talent in round one and try to grab a flier QB in the later rounds.

Mystic Merlin · Dec 28, 2020

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
I would love to get Stafford or Ryan.

This is a viable scenario. Rumblings have been that Stafford wants out of Detroit, and the warmth embrace of a stable organization that doesn’t turnover its offensive coordinator every few years.

My concern with him is, simply, that I’m not sure his contract - you are devoting 25 and 27M in cap dollars the next two years off you don't extend/restructure his deal - is worth his production. He’s a proven, mid-level starter with obvious arm talent, but most teams who devote almost 20 percent of their cap dollars to a QB who isn’t a difference maker tend to regret it. I don’t think he’s quite good enough to justify that.

Anyways, Stafford has a ten million roster bonus due in March, so if Detroit trades him it’ll be before they have to pay it out.

I love Ryan, but I don’t see a path there with how much dead money Atlanta would have to assume. And goodness is his contract massive. He’s not Mahomes/Rodgers, so any contract in excess of 30M in annual cap dollars - under what will be a flat or reduced cap next year - scares me.

That being said, the Pats are at the mercy of the alternatives, and do I really prefer trading for Wentz or taking a bridge QB like Fitzpatrick with a young QB behind him that hopefully blossoms? I don’t know, though it is a viable hedge strategy. If you bet big on a QB, you have to be right/the guy better be a difference maker, and of the guys realistically available via FA or trade I don’t see it right now.

EDIT - I almost forgot: NO NO NO NO on Trubisky. A handful of big games against shit pass defenses is not convincing me to hand him a big contract.

Harry Hooper · Dec 28, 2020

What about either of the Vegas QBs? He's easy to overlook, but I believe Bortles will be out there as a FA too.

4 6 3 DP · Dec 28, 2020

I think this team would have 10 wins right now with Fitzpatrick on their roster so I'd go there and hopefully get a good prospect in the draft.

tims4wins · Dec 28, 2020

Agree on the Ryan / Stafford dreams.

Re: Jimmy G, if he were to end up in NE, it feels like that would happen as a free agent signing as opposed to trade. Easy cut for the Niners and that way the Pats don't have to take on the $20M+ contract if they don't want to. Negative is that if he becomes a free agent you have to compete for his services.

Jungleland · Dec 28, 2020

I'm not sure I wouldn't throw big money at Dak and hope he's mad enough about 2020 to actually consider leaving. He's the only guy of the entire list of vets I think might be good enough to be the main reason you're a perennial contender, and it's reasonable to think pending health that he still has room in his ceiling.

As far as the realistic options, the 2020 Miami experience with a QB you're far less likely to commit to starting in year 1 is the most appealing. I agree this relatively bad team is probably not playing meaningless games right now if Fitz had been in Cam's place and the offseason Stidham enthusiasm makes it clear a lot of us want to dream on the next decade long starter.

I have a hard time seeing Detroit and San Francisco moving on this year - too possible either of them is still a medium to long term solution. I'd take either happily unless Bill loves someone in the draft that we can realistically get, but giving up pick value for either AND paying those contracts makes it look like a long shot to me. If for some reason Philly eats the dead money now and outright cuts Wentz he intrigues me a lot as a reclamation project, but not even a little bit under his current contract.

Captaincoop · Dec 28, 2020

A 2nd or 3rd for Jimmy G sounds like a decent option at this point.

Cellar-Door · Dec 28, 2020

This season has made me a lot lower on Matt Ryan than I was. He has been markedly worse without Julio Jones than with him, to a truly wild extent.

I would love Stafford.

I'd be up for giving Jameis a shot (he's a better, younger Fitzpatrick), I'd be interested in Carr or Mariota for the right price, same with a Wentz rebuild (though I bet the price will be too high for Bill) or Darnold (if the Jets don't keep him now that they won't get Lawrence).

I'm out on Jimmy G unless he's dirt cheap, no on Goff who isn't listed but will get shopped, no on Foles or Beathard.

jsinger121 · Dec 28, 2020

Anyone but Cam Newton

Harry Hooper · Dec 28, 2020

jsinger121 said:
Anyone but Cam Newton

There's the true genius of BB sticking with Cam this season. He didn't lower the bar from Brady-level performance, he buried it deep inside an abandoned mine.

nattysez · Dec 28, 2020

Harry Hooper said:
What about either of the Vegas QBs? He's easy to overlook, but I believe Bortles will be out there as a FA too.

Unfortunately, it's hard for me to see the Raiders opting-out of the Mariota deal. He's the perfect backup for Carr, and with a new D coordinator, they should be able to make the playoffs next year (though the Chargers improving by replacing their HC is going to make the AFC West a tough division).

It's going to drive this board insane, but I think BB goes relatively cheap again at QB.

I'd be curious to see what Jacoby can bring to the table after starting for a year and then watching Rivers for a year. Jacoby with Fitz as backup "but given every opportunity to compete for the job" sounds about right.

lexrageorge · Dec 28, 2020

From Mugsy's list, I've crossed out the ones that I have zero interest in, or are simply unrealistic targets:

Mugsy's Jock said:
2021 FREE AGENTS (MULTI-YEAR STARTER POSSIBILITY)
~~Dak Prescott~~ (I'll go ahead and assume he stays in Dallas): Crossed out because it's highly unlikely he'll leave Dallas
~~Phillip Rivers~~ (I'll go ahead and assume he stays in Indianapolis): Crossed out because he will want a good amount of cash to come to NE, and he'll be 40.
~~Mitchell Trubisky~~: Crossed out because I think he's terrible.

2021 FREE AGENTS (ONE-YEAR BRIDGE / LOW CEILING)
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jacoby Brissett
~~Tyrod Taylor:~~ See Trubisky, Mitchell
Andy Dalton
~~Cam Newton~~: The Pats will need an assistant QB coach.
~~Jameis Winston~~: I will never, ever see the appeal.
Bryan Hoyer
CJ Beathard: Realistic ceiling is that of Hoyer; not what the Pats need.
Nick Mullens (restricted): Could be a possibility, but probably not going anywhere.
~~Josh Rosen (exclusive restricted)~~: Multiple teams have moved on from him the first chance they get. Stay far away.
Dwayne Haskins

2021 TRADE POSSIBILITIES
Carson Wentz
Matthew Stafford
~~Sam Darnold:~~ Jets will never trade him to the Pats, and he's seen too many ghosts for Belichick.
Jimmy Garoppolo
~~Gardner Minshew~~
Matt Ryan
~~Nick Foles~~

AND THEN THERE'S...
~~Jarrett Stidham~~

Minshew, Foles, Winston, Darnold, Rosen, and Taylor would all be huge steps backwards.

I'm almost tempted to cross out Matt Ryan, but would be OK if he came to camp to compete with a highly drafted QB.

mauf · Dec 28, 2020

jsinger121 said:
Anyone but Cam Newton

I don’t mind Cam as the bridge QB if the Pats address the position through the draft. At that point, cultural fit is more important than 2021 production, and Cam is better than the alternatives (though Fitzy would also be good and would probably be better on the field).

Average Game James · Dec 28, 2020

Mystic Merlin said:
This is a viable scenario. Rumblings have been that Stafford wants out of Detroit, and the warmth embrace of a stable organization that doesn’t turnover its offensive coordinator every few years.

My concern with him is, simply, that I’m not sure his contract - you are devoting 25 and 27M in cap dollars the next two years off you don't extend/restructure his deal - is worth his production. He’s a proven, mid-level starter with obvious arm talent, but most teams who devote almost 20 percent of their cap dollars to a QB who isn’t a difference maker tend to regret it. I don’t think he’s quite good enough to justify that.

Stafford wouldn't be quite that onerous from a cap perspective - per Over the Cap, Stafford has $9.5 million in base, $10 million roster bonus and a $500k workout bonus for 2021, or $20 million total against the cap if the Pats were to trade for him. 2022 is $12.5 million base, $10 million roster bonus, and $500k workout bonus, or $23 million total. Assuming the cap is $175 million in '21, that's 11.4% of the cap on a starting QB, coincidentally that same as Brady counted for in 2019. Not saying Stafford is Tom Brady by any stretch, but the team has has no trouble operating with that level of QB cap hit in the past.

I'm not sure how realistic of a target Stafford is... he may want out of Detroit, but the Lions would be left with $19 million in dead cap money (already projected to be slightly over the cap going into 2021 with only 42 players under contract and several starters hitting FA) and probably won't be high enough in the draft to get one of the top QBs, so they would likely need to decide to basically tank the 2021 season.

Mystic Merlin · Dec 28, 2020

Ah, I incorrectly counted his restructure money against the receiving team’s cap, but I think that is accounted for against Detroit’s cap in the event of a trade. Good catch.

The big unknown with Stafford’s status is who the new GM/coach are, and do they want to start over with someone else?

mwonow · Dec 28, 2020

Average Game James said:
Stafford wouldn't be quite that onerous from a cap perspective - per Over the Cap, Stafford has $9.5 million in base, $10 million roster bonus and a $500k workout bonus for 2021, or $20 million total against the cap if the Pats were to trade for him. 2022 is $12.5 million base, $10 million roster bonus, and $500k workout bonus, or $23 million total. Assuming the cap is $175 million in '21, that's 11.4% of the cap on a starting QB, coincidentally that same as Brady counted for in 2019. Not saying Stafford is Tom Brady by any stretch, but the team has has no trouble operating with that level of QB cap hit in the past.

I'm not sure how realistic of a target Stafford is... he may want out of Detroit, but the Lions would be left with $19 million in dead cap money (already projected to be slightly over the cap going into 2021 with only 42 players under contract and several starters hitting FA) and probably won't be high enough in the draft to get one of the top QBs, so they would likely need to decide to basically tank the 2021 season.

If the Lions tank on purpose, will anyone notice?

They're in perpetual blow-it-up-and-start-again mode. But - isn't that the point where you trade somebody valuable for a boatload of picks, to a team that's pretty well set but needs a piece to get over the top?

The Pats need LOTS of help. They have plenty of cap space, and maybe the pro scouting department can find a half-dozen diamonds in the rough. I sure hope so, because lacking a QB and extra assets is a tough position to be in.

Garshaparra · Dec 28, 2020

This team is built to RPO. Cam can't pass, hence the struggles this year.

IMHO: sign Jacoby, draft Trey Lance. If Lance goes early, draft Pitts to turn TE into a strength rather than a weakness, and draft Mac Davis in the 3rd.

RG33 · Dec 28, 2020

Captaincoop said:
A 2nd or 3rd for Jimmy G sounds like a decent option at this point.

I would consider a 5th — but there is no way the Patriots are giving up a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a QB who has underperformed and is likely being released.

I want Jimmy G as option #1 for sure, but his value is really low now and you can’t give a 2 or 3 for him IMO.

Saints Rest · Dec 28, 2020

I want a vet QB FA. Put another way: I don't want them using up any draft capital (read: anything in the first two rounds of the next two drafts) on a QB.

axx · Dec 28, 2020

RG33 said:
and is likely being released.

I dunno, but I think there's a chance Jimmy stays in SF one more year.

Garshaparra · Dec 28, 2020

Mugsy's Jock said:
I'm updating the OP as improvements are suggested.

Also reminder to all -- Pats have no third rounder this year owing to annual Goodell antics/owner jealousy/Bengals butt-hurt. At the same time, the supplemental pick haul should be pretty hefty.

Isn't one of the supplemental picks expected to be a 3rd rounder? This is what I was thinking of.

Cellar-Door · Dec 28, 2020

lexrageorge said:
From Mugsy's list, I've crossed out the ones that I have zero interest in, or are simply unrealistic targets:

Minshew, Foles, Winston, Darnold, Rosen, and Taylor would all be huge steps backwards.

I'm almost tempted to cross out Matt Ryan, but would be OK if he came to camp to compete with a highly drafted QB.

I don't get the process behind no interest in Winston, but interest in the older, likely more expensive Fitz.
We got to see them on the same team, with the same teammates, coaches, playcalling etc. and they were very similar players. I'd rather have Jameis who is 12 years younger, still could improve with stable quality coaching and probably available on the minimum than Fitz who'll likely want $8-10M a year

wiffleballhero · Dec 28, 2020

How much does Belichick's age factor into this?

nattysez · Dec 28, 2020

axx said:
I dunno, but I think there's a chance Jimmy stays in SF one more year.

I think this is likely unless CJ Beathard has another great game in Week #17 and has been blowing them away in practice.

Marciano490 · Dec 28, 2020

Cellar-Door said:
I don't get the process behind no interest in Winston, but interest in the older, likely more expensive Fitz.
We got to see them on the same team, with the same teammates, coaches, playcalling etc. and they were very similar players. I'd rather have Jameis who is 12 years younger, still could improve with stable quality coaching and probably available on the minimum than Fitz who'll likely want $8-10M a year

For one, Winston seems like a terrible human being and Fitz doesn’t appear to have been accused of rape or sexual assault.

Mystic Merlin · Dec 28, 2020

wiffleballhero said:
How much does Belichick's age factor into this?

Meaning?

Given that NFL roster cores can’t really be built with longer vistas than 3-4 years or so, and beyond the QB there is a good argument it is even shorter given how frequent roster turnover is, and it is plausible Bill coaches another 4-5 years, I would say it doesn’t factor in at all. Bill is not gonna build the team in a way that fucks over his successor in order to grind out a few more wins.

Jungleland · Dec 28, 2020

Marciano490 said:
For one, Winston seems like a terrible human being and Fitz doesn’t appear to have been accused of rape or sexual assault.

Yup. We've won 6 super bowls. I'm 98% sure neither guy is the answer to any question other than "who is the least losing option in 2021?" - I'd much rather watch one of the most lovable guys in the league take this team to halfway decent and fun to watch for a year or two while BB figures a long term option out than root for a guy who shouldn't even be in the league to turn his career around.

Captaincoop · Dec 28, 2020

RG33 said:
I would consider a 5th — but there is no way the Patriots are giving up a 2nd or 3rd rounder for a QB who has underperformed and is likely being released.

That's going to be the price, I think.

bsj · Dec 28, 2020

5 of 10 for 34 yards in the first half.
Can’t wait to see the Twitter geniuses keep trying to convince me Cam is the answer for 2021. I’ll probably watch about as much of the team next year as I have tonight if he is back.

heavyde050 · Dec 28, 2020

bsj said:
5 of 10 for 34 yards in the first half.
Can’t wait to see the Twitter geniuses keep trying to convince me Cam is the answer for 2021. I’ll probably watch about as much of the team next year as I have tonight if he is back.

Yeah, a lot of excuses get made for him because people like him and he is a great leader.
People said Brady was finished last year and trashed him, but he was 50X better than Cam is this year.

biggreen · Dec 28, 2020

Watching another horrible half of cam skipping passes, it would seem tough not to improve with a change at qb with even a serviceable passer. Addition by subtraction. Anyone who has seen more of minshew play interested in bringing him in? (Admit I don’t watch much/any jags football) Is he kind of the compromise candidate between bridge Qb with possible long term potential still on rookie contract? Maybe hard to tell since he’s been injured but when he was healthy the numbers were good and he has mobility. He’s also seems to have bit of the fitzmagic personality. What would it take to get him? Jags must want to upgrade to protect their investment in Lawrence.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Dec 28, 2020

The big question to me is whether BB likes the draft's QB3/4 (Lance? Jones?) enough to target a guy in the first round. A trade up of a few spots or into the back half of the top 10 seems very doable.

koufax32 · Dec 28, 2020

Looks like we’re currently sitting in the #14 spot. If NE is able to lose next week, there’s a decent chance of finishing with the #10 pick if DEN, MIN, DAL, and LAC (facing a KC that has no reason to play starters) win. That would definitely make drafting a QB easier. Hopefully Sam D. doesn’t see ghosts next week!

edited to include Denver

Harry Hooper · Dec 28, 2020

heavyde050 said:
Yeah, a lot of excuses get made for him because people like him and he is a great leader.
People said Brady was finished last year and trashed him, but he was 50X better than Cam is this year.

You are (unintentionally) slighting Brady on this.

heavyde050 · Dec 28, 2020

Harry Hooper said:
You are (unintentionally) slighting Brady on this.

You are probably right.

Harry Hooper · Dec 29, 2020

Rams are trying to get Bortles off Denver's PS to be their backup QB this week.

jablo1312 · Dec 29, 2020

all i'll say is that while it's frustrating watching the offense be this bad, upgrading from historically awful to "bad to meh" w/ Bortles (?), Minshew, Foles, Trubisky (lol) etc. doesn't really make a lot of sense if you're actually trying to maximize your super bowl chances w/ Bill + Josh. It's either draft or spend big on a trade (you can't sign actually good quarterbacks in free agency) to acquire someone who can play the position at a high enough level to contend for a title. That's obviously a difficult thing to do and even more difficult to do when you have a lot of places you need to upgrade or add depth elsewhere on the roster. Unlikely you'd have a situation like last years 49ers where a slightly above average QB is operating with a loaded roster.

Beomoose · Dec 29, 2020

Is there a universe where Billcan trade up into Fields range?

mauf said:
I don’t mind Cam as the bridge QB if the Pats address the position through the draft. At that point, cultural fit is more important than 2021 production, and Cam is better than the alternatives (though Fitzy would also be good and would probably be better on the field).

Seconded.

Conigliaro's Potential · Dec 29, 2020

No way the Falcons are trading Ryan after this season, FWIW - too much dead money.

sodenj5 · Dec 29, 2020

Beomoose said:
Is there a universe where Billcan trade up into Fields range?

It doesn’t seem impossible, just highly unlikely.

Would need the Jets to pass on a QB at 2. If they take Sewell or Parsons, ATL, DET, CAR, DEN are all teams that could go QB currently in front of them.

They would likely need to get into the top 5 to secure Fields or Wilson, if the Jets pass on a QB. If they don’t, they would probably need to move up to 3 or 4.

Beomoose · Dec 29, 2020

sodenj5 said:
It doesn’t seem impossible, just highly unlikely.

Would need the Jets to pass on a QB at 2. If they take Sewell or Parsons, ATL, DET, CAR, DEN are all teams that could go QB currently in front of them.

They would likely need to get into the top 5 to secure Fields or Wilson, if the Jets pass on a QB. If they don’t, they would probably need to move up to 3 or 4.

Yeah, top 5 seems pretty unlikely. Had seen some mocks with NYJ picking Wilson and Fields going to Detroit at 7, which for feels far more get-able for Bill. I guess I'll go back to hoping Lance's not having a 2020 season causes him to fall into our hands.

Super Nomario · Dec 29, 2020

Beomoose said:
Is there a universe where Billcan trade up into Fields range?

Seconded.

After last night, I'm not in love with a big trade up. They need a QB but they need about 25 other things, too. Giving up two premium picks to take a QB who isn't QB1 and throwing him into this team with these receiving weapons and this defense seems like a recipe for disaster. In the middle of the first, they're not really in a great position to draft a QB, and it won't surprise me if they are in better position next year.

Saints Rest · Dec 29, 2020

Super Nomario said:
After last night, I'm not in love with a big trade up. They need a QB but they need about 25 other things, too. Giving up two premium picks to take a QB who isn't QB1 and throwing him into this team with these receiving weapons and this defense seems like a recipe for disaster. In the middle of the first, they're not really in a great position to draft a QB, and it won't surprise me if they are in better position next year.

My feelings exactly and why I opined upthread that I don't want them using any 1st or 2nd round draft capital on a QB.

That said, I do think they might need to make a splash early so that other FA's might have some optimism about signing here. A lot of improvements can be made in the draft and the bargain-basement end of free agency, but they need some playmakers to catch the ball and in the front 7 -- both of those will cost a lot in FA, but also can be found in the first couple rounds of the draft.

mwonow · Dec 29, 2020

Super Nomario said:
After last night, I'm not in love with a big trade up. They need a QB but they need about 25 other things, too. Giving up two premium picks to take a QB who isn't QB1 and throwing him into this team with these receiving weapons and this defense seems like a recipe for disaster. In the middle of the first, they're not really in a great position to draft a QB, and it won't surprise me if they are in better position next year.

Painful as it is to agree, I think you're right. NOBODY is afraid of the Pats right now - the front 7 is pretty easy to block or move, and the offense is stuck in 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust mode.

A talented D would be at least fun to watch, and a scary weapon or two on offense would make that side of the ball more bearable. Selling out for a high draft pick QB leaves holes in too many places, and if that pick whiffs, the Pats are looking at a grim half-decade.

Pats QB options in 2021

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