Pats Draft Rd.2/38: DI Christian Barmore

SeoulSoxFan

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Per PFF's draft tracker:

Christian Barmore is the best interior defender in this draft, and he should have been a first-round draft pick. He is the only consistently high-level pass rusher from the interior in this class, posting a 90.3 PFF pass-rushing grade against true passing sets last year. Barmore was the No. 12 overall player on the PFF Big Board.
 

Sox Puppet

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The Jones and Barmore picks are really throwing me for a loop. What ever happened to the time-honored strategy of trading down repeatedly in order to overdraft a bunch of no-namers?
 

SeoulSoxFan

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So why did he drop?
Inconsistency seems to be the top reason:

In a widely derided defensive tackle class, Barmore stands above his peers as the highest-upside option. His inconsistency, however, makes it difficult to pin down where exactly he fits in the draft. The allure of a 6-5, 310-pound interior disruptor who led the Crimson Tide in sacks (eight) is clear, particularly after his dominant play down the stretch and in the national championship game. But Barmore was largely a rotational player at Alabama and was too often out of control, which could make teams wary of investing a first-round pick in him.
Possibly work ethic as well:

For teams looking for a pass-rushing defensive tackle, Barmore’s the man. He was by far the best interior rusher in the nation last year. But he was only a part-time player at Alabama and had an especially limited role against the run.

“Two weeks ago, I would have said he’d be gone for sure,” a scout said. “It’s weird. The reason why we’re talking about these guys is they all have a thing. Barmore’s been getting killed on the mental and work ethic and mental toughness. Some teams have been super-scared off by him. He’s got a wide range. I could see him going from 20 to top five of the second. I could see him slide a little bit.”
 

SMU_Sox

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Exactly ... predicting how a quarterback is going to perform in the NFL based off their collegiate stats is a fool's errand.
So why did he drop?
40727

Bruglar.

Barmore was someone I had connected the dots with at 15 earlier. This is a massive home-run swing. Risky but he has the best tools in the class.
 

Cellar-Door

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There are risks, but man he has size, power, quickness. He could be a force up front. He was probably in my top 5 for 15.
Mentioned it in the game thread, but I feel way better about Jones at 15 now too, didn't miss out on a top defender by taking him, and if you flipped their draft spots I'd have considered both good values.
 

bsj

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Love the pick because of the talent, the need, and because of how big the dropoff was for interior D-Line after the first couple. Great value.
 

snowmanny

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There are risks, but man he has size, power, quickness. He could be a force up front. He was probably in my top 5 for 15.
Mentioned it in the game thread, but I feel way better about Jones at 15 now too, didn't miss out on a top defender by taking him, and if you flipped their draft spots I'd have considered both good values.
Cellar-Door being happy makes my night.
 

ZMart100

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Lots of beef to bring to camp to find a group to mix and match based on situation. Adams, Anderson, Barmore, Cowart, Davis, Godchaux, Guy, Spence and Thurman
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah I don’t care about the price at ALL. He’s a stud. Potential dominator. They couldn’t roster all those picks so this was a good use of them.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I like the idea of a boom-bust swing on the DL. We've rotated and mixed-and-matched a lot of functional, useful players up front in recent years but its been a while since we've had a real dominant force. Maybe not since Vince tore his achilles.
 
Feb 19, 2015
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Is that based purely on draft position (regardless of the player picked?)
Because if so, and he had potential to go a dozen or more picks sooner, then that seems like a deal.
Yes, purely draft position. But it doesn't say what chart it's using. (Well, it links to a value chart on ESPN. But I'm not sure if that is an ESPN developed chart or one of the other charts that ESPN just happened to post.)
 

Cellar-Door

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Seems a bit rich to only move up 8 spots, no?
Not really, JJ chart has it as basically even, Rich Hill chart has it as a small to modest overpay, but those things are all just guidelines.
Yes, purely draft position. But it doesn't say what chart it's using. (Well, it links to a value chart on ESPN. But I'm not sure if that is an ESPN developed chart or one of the other charts that ESPN just happened to post.)
Looks like the JJ chart.
 

sonofgodcf

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Sexy.
There are risks, but man he has size, power, quickness. He could be a force up front. He was probably in my top 5 for 15.
Mentioned it in the game thread, but I feel way better about Jones at 15 now too, didn't miss out on a top defender by taking him, and if you flipped their draft spots I'd have considered both good values.
If Jones is a keeper, there's a lot of extra value in signing him to a five-year contract, no? Seems like that extra year is incentive to pick a QB in the first round, considering how expensive they get.
 

tims4wins

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If Jones is a keeper, there's a lot of extra value in signing him to a five-year contract, no? Seems like that extra year is incentive to pick a QB in the first round, considering how expensive they get.
You can only sign him to 4, then exercise a 5th year after year 3.
 

JM3

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According to the Stuart chart, which is my favorite, they gave up 17.4 points of value (equivalent to the 15th pick), for a pick with 11.4 points of value.

Buuuuut I still think it's fine & don't mind it.
 

Seels

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Last time I was this happy with a draft was after the Chandler and Hightower picks of 2012.
 
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The defense is going to be scary, good heavens. It’s amazing how much more talent this roster has on it between free agency and the draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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According to the Stuart chart, which is my favorite, they gave up 17.4 points of value (equivalent to the 15th pick), for a pick with 11.4 points of value.

Buuuuut I still think it's fine & don't mind it.
Why do you like the Stuart chart... it seems wildly out of line with real trades. It thinks every trade made (non-QB) last night and today were massively off line.

I think either Hill or JJ is a better one because they seem to more accurately reflect what teams actually do.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Barmore is from Philly so I started reading a little bit more local stuff about him and he has a pretty interesting story. Never played football until his junior year when a coach yanked him off a basketball court and got him to try out, that charter school then closed so he had to transfer and play somewhere else his senior year. Started out the year only with offers from Buffalo and Temple but a few months later had offers from Alabama, Georgia, and others. He says that he taught himself to play by watching youtube videos of Reggie White, which is kind of ridiculous, but obviously he was raw as hell for a kid going to a program like Alabama.

Given that high school background, his trajectory at Alabama seems pretty decent - redshirt, part timer as a redshirt freshman, starts his redshirt sophomore year as a rotational player but grows more dominant and influential as the year goes on.
 

mauf

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I like the idea of a boom-bust swing on the DL. We've rotated and mixed-and-matched a lot of functional, useful players up front in recent years but its been a while since we've had a real dominant force. Maybe not since Vince tore his achilles.
You see this as a boom-bust pick? I see Barmore as a guy who’s very likely to be a serviceable DT but unlikely to be special.

But I’m hardly an expert, and the relatively aggressive trade-up suggests BB’s view is closer than mine.
 

RedOctober3829

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Barmore is from Philly so I started reading a little bit more local stuff about him and he has a pretty interesting story. Never played football until his junior year when a coach yanked him off a basketball court and got him to try out, that charter school then closed so he had to transfer and play somewhere else his senior year. Started out the year only with offers from Buffalo and Temple but a few months later had offers from Alabama, Georgia, and others. He says that he taught himself to play by watching youtube videos of Reggie White, which is kind of ridiculous, but obviously he was raw as hell for a kid going to a program like Alabama.

Given that high school background, his trajectory at Alabama seems pretty decent - redshirt, part timer as a redshirt freshman, starts his redshirt sophomore year as a rotational player but grows more dominant and influential as the year goes on.
Best part about your post is that Alabama is so good that they can redshirt a player like Christian Barmore.
 

JM3

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Why do you like the Stuart chart... it seems wildly out of line with real trades. It thinks every trade made (non-QB) last night and today were massively off line.

I think either Hill or JJ is a better one because they seem to more accurately reflect what teams actually do.
I don't care what teams do - I care what they should do & what the value of what they do is.

There is a reason BB has been so wildly successful trading back over the years & it's because teams overvalue trading up because they overestimate their ability to draft well.

Just because teams overpay to do it, doesn't mean they should - with certain exceptions.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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You see this as a boom-bust pick? I see Barmore as a guy who’s very likely to be a serviceable DT but unlikely to be special.

But I’m hardly an expert, and the relatively aggressive trade-up suggests BB’s view is closer than mine.
I'm no kind of expert but boom-bust seems to be what SMU and others I trust are saying. He has the physical traits to be an elite player but has issues with inconsistency, rawness, and potentially work ethic (?) that could sink him in the NFL.
 

mauf

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I don't care what teams do - I care what they should do & what the value of what they do is.

There is a reason BB has been so wildly successful trading back over the years & it's because teams overvalue trading up because they overestimate their ability to draft well.

Just because teams overpay to do it, doesn't mean they should - with certain exceptions.
But the purpose of a trade chart is to give you a rough gauge of the market value of draft picks. A chart that doesn’t reflect real-world trade serves no purpose.

I suspect you’re correct that trading down is more often shrewd than trading up is, but if you believe that, it’s an adjustment you make over the top, not something that should be baked into a chart (because there’s no objective way to quantify what that adjustment “should” be).