Pats Draft Poll

What do the Pats do in round 1?

  • Trade up to 4 and draft a QB

    Votes: 14 5.4%
  • Trade up to 7-8 or 10-11 and draft a QB

    Votes: 99 38.4%
  • Trade up and draft a non-QB

    Votes: 6 2.3%
  • Pick best available OT at 15 (Darrisaw, Slater, etc.)

    Votes: 11 4.3%
  • Pick best available CB at 15 (Horn, Surtain, Farley, etc.)

    Votes: 20 7.8%
  • Pick best available front 7 defender at 15 (Parsons, Paye, Barmore, Collins, etc.)

    Votes: 47 18.2%
  • Trade down, pick up a 2nd or 3rd rounder, then select one of OT / CB / WR / front 7 defender

    Votes: 54 20.9%
  • Trade down, pick up a 2nd or 3rd rounder, then select one of OT / CB / WR / front 7 defender

    Votes: 4 1.6%
  • Pick best available WR at 15

    Votes: 3 1.2%

  • Total voters
    258
  • Poll closed .

tims4wins

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Apparently the Giants have never traded down under Gettleman, so cross them off the list of a potential trade up to 11. I still think Dallas makes the most sense for a trade up, if it looks like one of the CBs will be available at 15.
 

JM3

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Apparently the Giants have never traded down under Gettleman, so cross them off the list of a potential trade up to 11. I still think Dallas makes the most sense for a trade up, if it looks like one of the CBs will be available at 15.
Idk Gettleman has put out this big PR push about how close he has been to trading down a few times & how him not wanting to trade down is an "urban myth".
 

Cellar-Door

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Idk Gettleman has put out this big PR push about how close he has been to trading down a few times & how him not wanting to trade down is an "urban myth".
Maybe, but he also showed in that push that he has no idea how to value picks... as Robert Mays says... if you haven't traded down in 8 years and you were trying, it wasn't because everyone was trying to "fleece you", the league has a lot of trades, and outside of top 5-10 trades for QBs, all of them fall generally within a pretty tight range of valuation, if Gettleman thinks every offer he's ever gotten is an attempt to fleece him, I don't think the issue is the other 35-40 GMs over that period.

If you run into a GM with a weird valuation of picks in the morning, you ran into a GM with weird valuations... if you run into nothing but GMs with weird valuations of picks for 8 years.....
 

tims4wins

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Maybe, but he also showed in that push that he has no idea how to value picks... as Robert Mays says... if you haven't traded down in 8 years and you were trying, it wasn't because everyone was trying to "fleece you", the league has a lot of trades, and outside of top 5-10 trades for QBs, all of them fall generally within a pretty tight range of valuation, if Gettleman thinks every offer he's ever gotten is an attempt to fleece him, I don't think the issue is the other 35-40 GMs over that period.

If you run into a GM with a weird valuation of picks in the morning, you ran into a GM with weird valuations... if you run into nothing but GMs with weird valuations of picks for 8 years.....
Yeah, I could maybe understand his perspective if he was talking about trading up - "they were trying to charge me an arm and a leg to move up 5 picks!" - but it's almost impossible to get "fleeced" when you trade down. Take last year's Pats trade from 23 to 37 and 71. By the value chart it was a slight loss for the Pats. But no one was saying they got fleeced. The only time you hear that term used is when a team trades up and gives up multiple firsts or whatever.

Edit: this probably goes without saying, but if you're a GM and you're worried about public perception... you're probably not a very good GM.
 

Saints Rest

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I would absolutely trade 15 for 19 and 51, but I think Rivera is pretty good and WFT is at worst a 6 win team and likely better.
Patriots get:
19
2022 1st

Redskins get:
15
139

I'm in.
These ideas made me think of the 2008 draft when the Pats traded down from 7 to 10. In return (from NO), they got pick 78 in that draft. So the trade ended up being Sedrick Ellis (who NO took at 7) for Mayo and Shawn Crable. Despite getting nothing out of Crable, I think the Pats ended up winning that trade as Mayo was more valuable for longer than Ellis, but it's probably closer than it appears.
 

tims4wins

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These ideas made me think of the 2008 draft when the Pats traded down from 7 to 10. In return (from NO), they got pick 78 in that draft. So the trade ended up being Sedrick Ellis (who NO took at 7) for Mayo and Shawn Crable. Despite getting nothing out of Crable, I think the Pats ended up winning that trade as Mayo was more valuable for longer than Ellis, but it's probably closer than it appears.
The key to this, and BB has said as much, is that the Pats are getting the same player (or quality of player) that they would have drafted in the earlier slot. Like in 2008, they probably would have just taken Mayo at 7 if they didn't have any takers. In this year's draft, maybe that guy is Barmore or Darrisaw or whatever.
 

JM3

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Maybe, but he also showed in that push that he has no idea how to value picks... as Robert Mays says... if you haven't traded down in 8 years and you were trying, it wasn't because everyone was trying to "fleece you", the league has a lot of trades, and outside of top 5-10 trades for QBs, all of them fall generally within a pretty tight range of valuation, if Gettleman thinks every offer he's ever gotten is an attempt to fleece him, I don't think the issue is the other 35-40 GMs over that period.

If you run into a GM with a weird valuation of picks in the morning, you ran into a GM with weird valuations... if you run into nothing but GMs with weird valuations of picks for 8 years.....
Yeah, I mean it's unlikely, but he's so lol he might just take the best offer just to prove a point. I'm guessing he'll just stay put & draft a mediocre player, though.
 

SoxJox

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Picked Trade up to 7 - 8 or 10-11 and draft a QB. We can't really predict if that will happen or not as GM Bill has been known to surprise and not draft based on need.

That said, starting from the idea that they will draft a QB, I don't see them with enough chips (that they're willing to part with) to trade up to #4, should they trade up, it will be for a QB.

If they can't trade up, it will be for the best available player (regardless of position).

I can't envision them trading down considering that value of a #15 pick.
Ditto.
 

E5 Yaz

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Patriots get:
19
2022 1st

Redskins get:
15
139

I'm in.
I read something like this in a mock draft yesterday .... think it was CBS Sports. It seems like none to trade a future 1 to move four spots in the middle of the draft
 

tims4wins

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Nine years ago today, the Pats drafted the 1-2 combo of Hightower and Jones.

They have not drafted a (non-punter) Pro Bowler since.

That has to end on Thursday. Period.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Nine years ago today, the Pats drafted the 1-2 combo of Hightower and Jones.

They have not drafted a (non-punter) Pro Bowler since.

That has to end on Thursday. Period.
I believe Jamie Collins made a Pro Bowl. And Flowers, Mason, and Thuney probably had good arguments.

But your point stands. That is a putrid record.
 

tims4wins

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Ah yes, Collins did in 2015. Good point. Collins was drafted in 2013, Butler was (un)drafted in 2014. Long time ago still.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I think you can grant that Thuney, Andrews and Jackson are Pro Bowl caliber players, but those guys were acquired in 2016 and 2018. They’ve had a rough series of drafts since 2016.
 

Captaincoop

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I'm surprised by this poll result. The trade up to grab the leftover QB at pick ~10 feels to me like the absolute least likely thing to happen here. You know that Belichick isn't trading up to take someone purely out of immediate need. He would have to love the guy available at that point to give up value to move up. What are the odds that a QB he loves is still around after the first 3 QBs get drafted AND they find a willing trade partner? Feels unlikely.
 

snowmanny

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It also feels as if at 15 there will likely be a very good player available to either pick or get a good return if they trade the pick.
 

TheRealness

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I have come to the conclusion that the Patriots will not trade up, and one of the big 5 QBs will be there at 15. The Pats will then trade down to a team in the mid to high 20s, and pick up a pick or two in the 46-96 range.

They will then pick a 2nd round graded defensive player with their late first, or trade down again. I would bet they trade down again.
 

bsj

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I have come to the conclusion that the Patriots will not trade up, and one of the big 5 QBs will be there at 15. The Pats will then trade down to a team in the mid to high 20s, and pick up a pick or two in the 46-96 range.

They will then pick a 2nd round graded defensive player with their late first, or trade down again. I would bet they trade down again.
Sounds about right. One of the QBs will there we will all be ecstatic and they wont take him.
 

Zincman

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I'm surprised by this poll result. The trade up to grab the leftover QB at pick ~10 feels to me like the absolute least likely thing to happen here. You know that Belichick isn't trading up to take someone purely out of immediate need. He would have to love the guy available at that point to give up value to move up. What are the odds that a QB he loves is still around after the first 3 QBs get drafted AND they find a willing trade partner? Feels unlikely.
This is on the mark. History (and a number of members on this board) tells us that of the 5 top QBs, only one, perhaps two will justify their draft position. Spending vital draft capital for the bronze medal winner doesn't like the BB way and its likely he has lower round grades on any number of the "top 5". This doesn't even factor the multiple moving parts of finding a suitable partner and price. The Captain is spot on and it should be added that nobody should be surprised if one of the "top 5" falls to #15 and BB passes or even trades the pick for more assets. Desperation is not in BB's DNA
 

tims4wins

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While I agree they are unlikely to trade up, I don't agree with the "bronze medal winner" comment. Obviously Lawrence is everybody's #1. But if Wilson and Jones go 2-3, it is entirely possible that the Pats will have the opportunity to trade up for their 2nd highest rated QB on the board. Then the question becomes how highly rated do they have that QB - do they deem him worthy of taking in the top 10.
 

Cellar-Door

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I could see a trade up for Fields. To me that seems like the kind of pick Bill makes... good college player with a degree of experience, thought of early in the process as a top pick but slides for not particularly good/clear reasons. I can't see him doing the same for someone like Lance who has so few passes thrown in college or the pros.

Overall my guess would be they trade back and pick up a pick to fill the gap between 46 and 96, but if you told me Fields is there at 8 or 10 or 11, I wouldn't be surprised by that particular trade up.
 

BaseballJones

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While I agree they are unlikely to trade up, I don't agree with the "bronze medal winner" comment. Obviously Lawrence is everybody's #1. But if Wilson and Jones go 2-3, it is entirely possible that the Pats will have the opportunity to trade up for their 2nd highest rated QB on the board. Then the question becomes how highly rated do they have that QB - do they deem him worthy of taking in the top 10.
This is it exactly. It doesn't matter to BB what other teams have as their QB rankings. It only matters what BB has as his QB rankings. It's totally possible that he could be sitting there with an opportunity to pick what he thinks is the 2nd best QB in the draft (and maybe a guy he thinks is better than every QB picked in the past few drafts as well), even if it's the 4th or 5th QB picked in *this* draft.
 

tims4wins

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This is it exactly. It doesn't matter to BB what other teams have as their QB rankings. It only matters what BB has as his QB rankings. It's totally possible that he could be sitting there with an opportunity to pick what he thinks is the 2nd best QB in the draft (and maybe a guy he thinks is better than every QB picked in the past few drafts as well), even if it's the 4th or 5th QB picked in *this* draft.
Watson was the "bronze medal winner" in 2017.

Josh Allen was the bronze medal winner in 2018. Lamar Jackson was the 5th place finisher.
 

Captaincoop

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This is it exactly. It doesn't matter to BB what other teams have as their QB rankings. It only matters what BB has as his QB rankings. It's totally possible that he could be sitting there with an opportunity to pick what he thinks is the 2nd best QB in the draft (and maybe a guy he thinks is better than every QB picked in the past few drafts as well), even if it's the 4th or 5th QB picked in *this* draft.
That is possible. But it's not likely.
 

JM3

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I think the overall consensus of draft experts is something like:

Lawrence


Fields
Wilson

Lance


Jones
 

tims4wins

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All of this week is pure speculation.
Fair enough, I just don't see how it is any different than one of us saying the same thing. She is literally saying "they could trade Gilmore". Of course they can. She's not saying she thinks they will. She's not saying that another team has said they have mentioned his name. She's just dangling it out there. It's useless IMO.
 

RedOctober3829

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Fair enough, I just don't see how it is any different than one of us saying the same thing. She is literally saying "they could trade Gilmore". Of course they can. She's not saying she thinks they will. She's not saying that another team has said they have mentioned his name. She's just dangling it out there. It's useless IMO.
His name has been out there all offseason. This is the last pressure point so if he's getting traded it's this weekend.
 

BaseballJones

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Rumors that the Pats will deal Gilmore. What is the likely return for Gilmore, given his skill, age, and contract? A second round pick? A first round pick? I mean, just two seasons ago he was DPOY. Not just some run-of-the-mill veteran starting CB. Like...the best defensive player in the entire league. You only dream that your first round corner pick will eventually reach Gilmore's level, if everything breaks right.

But the contract and age work against him, obviously. So is he worth a first round pick or a second round pick?
 

tims4wins

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Rumors that the Pats will deal Gilmore. What is the likely return for Gilmore, given his skill, age, and contract? A second round pick? A first round pick? I mean, just two seasons ago he was DPOY. Not just some run-of-the-mill veteran starting CB. Like...the best defensive player in the entire league. You only dream that your first round corner pick will eventually reach Gilmore's level, if everything breaks right.

But the contract and age work against him, obviously. So is he worth a first round pick or a second round pick?
Not just contract and age, but coming off a torn quad. I think they'd get a second round pick at best.
 

E5 Yaz

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Not just contract and age, but coming off a torn quad. I think they'd get a second round pick at best.
Doesn't make sense to me to just dump him for a pick, though, since they've spent the offseason restocking the defense.

Now, if he's part of a package to move into a favorable draft position, that I could see
 

BaseballJones

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Doesn't make sense to me to just dump him for a pick, though, since they've spent the offseason restocking the defense.

Now, if he's part of a package to move into a favorable draft position, that I could see
I guess the two options are using him to move up, or using him to acquire a draft pick, which could then be part of a separate deal to move up. But yes, I would expect that moving up would be the idea.
 

tims4wins

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Doesn't make sense to me to just dump him for a pick, though, since they've spent the offseason restocking the defense.

Now, if he's part of a package to move into a favorable draft position, that I could see
Personally I'd rather they just try to extend him for 2-3 years but if they can't come to an agreement, a 2nd in 2021 is better than a 3rd round comp pick in 2023. I'm not even sure he'd fetch a comp pick based on his age anyway.
 

BigSoxFan

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Doesn't make sense to me to just dump him for a pick, though, since they've spent the offseason restocking the defense.

Now, if he's part of a package to move into a favorable draft position, that I could see
I think it depends. If you can get a 2nd round pick for Gilmore, that's a pretty solid return for a guy who turns 31 in September, only has 1 more year of control, and is coming off of an injury. As long as you keep JCJ, you'd still have a decent secondary. My thoughts on Gilmore are basically as follows:

1st rounder: Race to the airport to send him on his way
2nd rounder: Strongly consider depending on where in the 2nd round the pick would be and potential value there
3rd rounder or later: No dice. Rolling with the Gilly Lock
 

Captaincoop

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With the contract situation and the injury, you can count on him being valued similar to a 3rd round pick. Packaging him with the 15 to move up could be an option if they want to go that route.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jeff Howe: Patriots have spoken to Atlanta about the possibility of trading up to 4. They are targeting Justin Fields.

“But here’s the rub. The Falcons have also put out word that they don’t intend to draft a quarterback in the first round. Maybe they’re lying – this is the time to do it – or maybe they believe the soon-to-be 36-year-old Ryan has enough to get the Falcons back into contention if they improve the roster around him. Such a theory would put Florida tight end Kyle Pitts in play with the fourth pick.

Whatever the Falcons intend to do, the Patriots seem to have their ear. It’s unclear what the Patriots would have to give up for the fourth pick, but some combination of Nos. 15 and 46 and 2022 first- and second-rounders should be in play.

It’s conceivable cornerback J.C. Jacksoncould be used as a trade chip, perhaps in lieu of the 46th selection”

https://theathletic.com/2548270/2021/04/28/patriots-continue-to-pursue-potential-path-into-nfl-draft-top-10-for-a-qb/?source=user_shared_article
 

RedOctober3829

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Evan Lazar on Pats possibilities of trading up for Justin Fields:

“According to two league sources, the Patriots are already having trade talks with teams inside the top ten to move up on Thursday night for a quarterback. Specifically, the most intense discussions are with the Carolina Panthers, who currently hold the eighth overall pick.

The belief around league circles is that the Patriots are targeting Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, but we also wouldn’t rule out Alabama’s Mac Jones if the 49ers don’t take him. We would put the percentage chance of the Patriots trading up for a quarterback at around 35 percent.

As far as acquisition costs go, it would likely be the 15th overall pick, the 46th overall pick, and potentially another mid-round selection in 2022 to sweeten the pot for New England to move up.”

https://www.clnsmedia.com/patriots-mailbag-ranking-the-positions-the-patriots-could-target-in-the-first-round/
 

tims4wins

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Man it is hard to not get at least a little excited about the possibility of a trade up. Trying to keep my expectations in check is going to be really hard for the next 37 hours or so.
 

snowmanny

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As someone who has rooted against Fields a lot I would be pretty excited if they got him.