Pats Draft Poll

What do the Pats do in round 1?

  • Trade up to 4 and draft a QB

    Votes: 14 5.4%
  • Trade up to 7-8 or 10-11 and draft a QB

    Votes: 99 38.4%
  • Trade up and draft a non-QB

    Votes: 6 2.3%
  • Pick best available OT at 15 (Darrisaw, Slater, etc.)

    Votes: 11 4.3%
  • Pick best available CB at 15 (Horn, Surtain, Farley, etc.)

    Votes: 20 7.8%
  • Pick best available front 7 defender at 15 (Parsons, Paye, Barmore, Collins, etc.)

    Votes: 47 18.2%
  • Trade down, pick up a 2nd or 3rd rounder, then select one of OT / CB / WR / front 7 defender

    Votes: 54 20.9%
  • Trade down, pick up a 2nd or 3rd rounder, then select one of OT / CB / WR / front 7 defender

    Votes: 4 1.6%
  • Pick best available WR at 15

    Votes: 3 1.2%

  • Total voters
    258
  • Poll closed .

JM3

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Okay...but if a QB is truly seen by the decision makers as a low floor, low ceiling guy, then he's not going in the first round is he?

Are teams just fooling themselves? What are they not seeing? QBs from big schools that put up big numbers aren't always drafted. There's *something* there isn't there?
I think if teams really see him as a top 4 QB in this class they think that he's amazingly accurate, works super hard, is the type of guy they want in meetings with them & don't think he'll ever fail.

I just disagree. Not much point in speculating about who's wrong when no one has even drafted him ahead of the other 4 yet, though.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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I think if teams really see him as a top 4 QB in this class they think that he's amazingly accurate, works super hard, is the type of guy they want in meetings with them & don't think he'll ever fail.

I just disagree. Not much point in speculating about who's wrong when no one has even drafted him ahead of the other 4 yet, though.
Yeah, I get you. I wasn't being snarky at all.
 

tims4wins

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There's no option for picking best player available at 15 so that is what I'm going with.
I explained this earlier but there are 3 options for that. We have no idea who they define as best available - so do you think that will be a CB, OT, or front 7 defender?
 

RedOctober3829

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I explained this earlier but there are 3 options for that. We have no idea who they define as best available - so do you think that will be a CB, OT, or front 7 defender?
We don't know who will be there at 15 so I can't say that BPA will even be those three positions. I just am fairly confident they will not trade up. It could be wide receiver, QB, or those three areas you listed.
 

Seabass

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Go get Lance or Fields, pay the price to do it. We've seen them win six Super Bowls, so I just want them to do the thing that's the most fun, and that's getting Lance or Fields.
 

tims4wins

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We don't know who will be there at 15 so I can't say that BPA will even be those three positions. I just am fairly confident they will not trade up. It could be wide receiver, QB, or those three areas you listed.
That's fair, but seems likely there will be a OT, CB, and front 7 defender available at 15. I think it's highly unlikely that a QB lasts to 15, and I think it's even more unlikely that they draft a WR. So the question is really asking what do you think is most likely. If I had to rank from most likely to least likely:
1) trade down a few spots
2) stick at 15 and pick OT / CB
3) trade up a few spots for a QB
 
Sep 1, 2019
117
I voted for a trade-down to lower in the first to pick up a stud OL like Teven Jenkins, along with an extra second or third rounder that can be used to take Jamie Newman. I think the whole idea of bringing Cam back is predicated on the idea that he can guide the development of a prospect like Newman. Many of the investments in free agency--such as the double tight ends--seem to reflect this as well.

If there is a chance to trade up to get Lance for a reasonable price they may do it, but I don't know if they see enough clear difference between Lance and someone like Newman to make it worth a heavy investment.

I also think they might grab Feleipe Franks in the 6th or 7th round, with the idea that his athletic skills can fit productively at another position.
 
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RedOctober3829

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I voted for a trade-down to lower in the first to pick up a stud OL like Teven Jenkins, along with an extra second or third rounder that can be used to take Jamie Newman. I think the whole idea of bringing Cam back is predicated on the idea that he can guide the development of a prospect like Newman. Many of the investments in free agency--such as the double tight ends--seem to reflect this as well.

If there is a chance to trade up to get Lance for a reasonable price they may do it, but I don't know if they see enough clear difference between Lance and someone like Newman to make it worth a heavy investment.

I also think they might grab Feleipe Franks in the 6th or 7th round, with the idea that his athletic skills can fit productively at another position.
Jamie Newman is at least a 2 year project of which he may never see the field in a meaningful way. If they really want a QB, then trade up for one like you said. But if they don't, Kyle Trask or Kellen Mond are way better choices than Jamie Newman.
 

Cellar-Door

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Jamie Newman is at least a 2 year project of which he may never see the field in a meaningful way. If they really want a QB, then trade up for one like you said. But if they don't, Kyle Trask or Kellen Mond are way better choices than Jamie Newman.
I kind of disagree with this... I think there is plenty of reason to think Newman is the most likely NFL QB of those 3, and even if he's the most raw, if you like his skills he's the better choice, because a guy you have to teach things to before he's an NFL starter quality player is better than a guy who isn't ever going to be one. Not to say that is necessarily true, but that if him being raw is the bigges isssue it shouldn't be. I also think we sometimes overrate how long it takes guys.... progress is rarely slow and linear.

To me the question is... do you think this guy at any point can be a good NFL starter... if yes, draft him and develop him, if no, why bother. Trask may be quicker to reach his level, but if his level is...not an NFL starter it doesn't matter.
 

tims4wins

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Man I wish the draft was tonight. Gonna be a long week. I feel like I'm draft talked-out at this point. It's like when you hit Wednesday or Thursday of Super Bowl week after an entire week off. Just get it on.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Man I wish the draft was tonight. Gonna be a long week. I feel like I'm draft talked-out at this point. It's like when you hit Wednesday or Thursday of Super Bowl week after an entire week off. Just get it on.
Got the Bs and Sox on next Thursday night, too. I might get new batteries for the remote, and some beer and wings, and have myself a party for one.
 

tims4wins

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Got the Bs and Sox on next Thursday night, too. I might get new batteries for the remote, and some beer and wings, and have myself a party for one.
I told my wife to have a girls night next Thursday, party for one will definitely be happening chez t4w.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I told my wife to have a girls night next Thursday, party for one will definitely be happening chez t4w.
Hope she doesn't walk in and start talking about something unimportant, like the kids' performance in school or the state of the family finances, while the Pats are on the clock, which is what I'm sure my wife will do. :D
 

RedOctober3829

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I kind of disagree with this... I think there is plenty of reason to think Newman is the most likely NFL QB of those 3, and even if he's the most raw, if you like his skills he's the better choice, because a guy you have to teach things to before he's an NFL starter quality player is better than a guy who isn't ever going to be one. Not to say that is necessarily true, but that if him being raw is the bigges isssue it shouldn't be. I also think we sometimes overrate how long it takes guys.... progress is rarely slow and linear.

To me the question is... do you think this guy at any point can be a good NFL starter... if yes, draft him and develop him, if no, why bother. Trask may be quicker to reach his level, but if his level is...not an NFL starter it doesn't matter.
I personally don't think Newman is going to be an NFL starter while Trask can be. Newman is extremely tough to project despite his raw tools. He hasn't played in a game since 2019 so it makes the evaluation even tougher on a player like him. It's not like he exhibited first round talent in 2019 like others who opted out and you're sure of what the player is. I'm not a big Jamie Newman guy, so I may be a bit bias on this one, but I don't think he's the choice if you're not getting one of the top 5 guys.
 

pappymojo

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I think they are positioned to trade up - lots of picks in the draft, but not many open roster spots due to their free agent activity. I just am not sure a QB drops to a spot where they can trade up at a reasonable cost. I suspect there's a run on QBs and that the Patriots instead trade up for a player at a different position who becomes available as a result of the run on QBs.
 

Cellar-Door

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I personally don't think Newman is going to be an NFL starter while Trask can be. Newman is extremely tough to project despite his raw tools. He hasn't played in a game since 2019 so it makes the evaluation even tougher on a player like him. It's not like he exhibited first round talent in 2019 like others who opted out and you're sure of what the player is. I'm not a big Jamie Newman guy, so I may be a bit bias on this one, but I don't think he's the choice if you're not getting one of the top 5 guys.
I think that is fine, I don't think either of them are likely to be NFL starters, I was just pointing out process-wise, that there are reasons that an evaluator would take Newman over Trask, and more generally that being raw isn't the biggest flaw in QB prospects compared with low ceiling.

I would lean Newman, but only because I think Trask goes top 50 and Newman you might get well past 100. I think both are pure punts, and the point in the draft I'm willing to take a pure punt is past when Trask will go (also I just think immobile slow release QBs are basically extinct as a viable option in the NFL). Mond vs. Newman, I think is more interesting in a ceiling vs. floor and value by where you need to take them sense.

Overall, I don't think anyone outside the top 5 ends up a reliable NFL starter, but there are 4 who in a perfect world have the ceiling for it (Newman, Mond, Davis, Trask) so the only way I'd take one is if he's there at 122 or 139, and I think the most likely guy to fit that of the "next 4" is Newman.
 

SMU_Sox

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Taking a WR at 15
Man I wish the draft was tonight. Gonna be a long week. I feel like I'm draft talked-out at this point. It's like when you hit Wednesday or Thursday of Super Bowl week after an entire week off. Just get it on.
You take that back. There is no such thing as draft talked-out :).

As for Trask vs Newman. Personally I don't think Trask is a starter BUT I think he should be a valuable backup and someone who can spot start if you need him to. Newman OTOH could eventually turn into a starter but might not last more than a year or two and doesn't have the mental traits right now where you would want to project him as a backup. If someone were patient with him I could see him growing but he will always be a bit of a long shot.
 

JM3

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I'll be at work for another hour or so after the draft starts next Thursday. I'm sure my productivity will be amazing.
 

Cellar-Door

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Taking a WR at 15


You take that back. There is no such thing as draft talked-out :).

As for Trask vs Newman. Personally I don't think Trask is a starter BUT I think he should be a valuable backup and someone who can spot start if you need him to. Newman OTOH could eventually turn into a starter but might not last more than a year or two and doesn't have the mental traits right now where you would want to project him as a backup. If someone were patient with him I could see him growing but he will always be a bit of a long shot.
See I think similarly... I think Trask could be a backup and is more likely to hit that level, where Newman has much higher bust potential but could actually be a pretty good starter. To me the question is do you use a 2nd on a guy who probably never makes starter, and to me the answer is no. I wouldn't take Newman in the 2nd either, probably not the 3rd, but he's being talked about as a 4/5th guy and that's where I think risk reward favors him. If I could get Trask at 139 I'd probably think differently bout him too.
 

tims4wins

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Hope she doesn't walk in and start talking about something unimportant, like the kids' performance in school or the state of the family finances, while the Pats are on the clock, which is what I'm sure my wife will do. :D
To be clear, I told her to leave the premises
 

Super Nomario

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See I think similarly... I think Trask could be a backup and is more likely to hit that level, where Newman has much higher bust potential but could actually be a pretty good starter. To me the question is do you use a 2nd on a guy who probably never makes starter, and to me the answer is no. I wouldn't take Newman in the 2nd either, probably not the 3rd, but he's being talked about as a 4/5th guy and that's where I think risk reward favors him. If I could get Trask at 139 I'd probably think differently bout him too.
I think Trask's room for growth is a bit undersold. Even though he's older, he's still pretty inexperienced; he didn't start in high school, didn't get to start until partway through the 2019 season, and of course the last year was weird. He's got some mechanical stuff to clean up but is pretty accurate anyway; he could maybe be really accurate with better footwork.
 

SMU_Sox

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That's fair @Super Nomario . Trask, Mond, Mills, Newman, I think these 4 guys all have a path to becoming a starter and a middle of the road one at that. I am not confident that any of them get there but I could see Trask running the Steelers offense for example.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think Trask's room for growth is a bit undersold. Even though he's older, he's still pretty inexperienced; he didn't start in high school, didn't get to start until partway through the 2019 season, and of course the last year was weird. He's got some mechanical stuff to clean up but is pretty accurate anyway; he could maybe be really accurate with better footwork.
His path is a slightly more experienced Matt Cassel. The Pats developed him to the point of starting for a season out of necessity and netting a 2nd round pick for him. Trask is more talented than Cassel as well.
 

Marbleheader

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Man I wish the draft was tonight. Gonna be a long week. I feel like I'm draft talked-out at this point. It's like when you hit Wednesday or Thursday of Super Bowl week after an entire week off. Just get it on.
We are not accustomed to the Patriots being players in the draft and the team was realistically out of the playoff hunt pretty early. The draft stuff started much, much sooner here than in previous years. I am tired of it as well, and when Bill trades down to pick up an extra pick, people will be significantly more onery this time around.
 

tims4wins

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We are not accustomed to the Patriots being players in the draft and the team was realistically out of the playoff hunt pretty early. The draft stuff started much, much sooner here than in previous years. I am tired of it as well, and when Bill trades down to pick up an extra pick, people will be significantly more onery this time around.
Depends how far. I'm totally fine with a trade down, probably with a limit at 22 (Jets pick 23 and Steelers pick 24, don't seem like likely trade partners, so that's probably where I'd draw the line). If they punt to the late 20s or into the 2nd round, then yes, uproar.
 

snowmanny

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We are not accustomed to the Patriots being players in the draft and the team was realistically out of the playoff hunt pretty early. The draft stuff started much, much sooner here than in previous years. I am tired of it as well, and when Bill trades down to pick up an extra pick, people will be significantly more onery this time around.
Well it would be a little weird because they probably need fewer picks not more, but if they are getting a good 2022 pick and taking someone they are ok with this year what’s the issue?
 

JM3

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I think the only things that the Patriots could do which would annoy me in this draft is trade up & draft Mac Jones.

I'm pretty cool with all other options, with my dream scenario of course being drafting Fields or Lance & giving up as little as possible to do so.

If Fields & Lance go early, trading to the end of the 1st & picking up a 2022 1st is fine by me.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think the only things that the Patriots could do which would annoy me in this draft is trade up & draft Mac Jones.

I'm pretty cool with all other options, with my dream scenario of course being drafting Fields or Lance & giving up as little as possible to do so.

If Fields & Lance go early, trading to the end of the 1st & picking up a 2022 1st is fine by me.
I feel the same way. I have no issue trading back from 15 if there isn't a QB to be taken there, and the only thing that would annoy me would be trading up for Mac Jones.
 

Zincman

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It seems to me I've heard BB describing his criteria for a top QB as tough, smart, and accurate. Not that he totally dismisses arm strength (you can't have a noodle) but the first three criteria are most important to him. Troy Aikman is a rather good example and I believe BB has cited him as a QB possessing those traits. He never had a big arm but it was more than adequate and he had those top three traits in abundance. I will leave it to John to tell us which, if any, of the current crop of "top tier" QBs fit that mold because if BB doesn't see that, I can't imagine him spending valuable future draft capital in what John rightly describes as a potential vintage draft next year. I still think a top front seven guy or a OL go at 15 but it wouldn't shock me to see him trade down for valuable present and future draft capital.
 

nighthob

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I personally don't think Newman is going to be an NFL starter while Trask can be. Newman is extremely tough to project despite his raw tools. He hasn't played in a game since 2019 so it makes the evaluation even tougher on a player like him. It's not like he exhibited first round talent in 2019 like others who opted out and you're sure of what the player is. I'm not a big Jamie Newman guy, so I may be a bit bias on this one, but I don't think he's the choice if you're not getting one of the top 5 guys.
I don't think any of the three project as a starter right now. Trask looks like the new Clipboard Jesus to me. The Patriots already have two backup QBs there's no room for a potential third backup on the roster. Mond just lacks the arm talent. Newman is definitely the most raw of the three, but of the three he has the best tools. If you hit on Newman you have a guy that's potentially a top 12 QB. If you hit on Mond you have potentially the next Cam Newton... circa 2020.
 

SMU_Sox

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@Zincman all of the top guys this year are tough. Even Mac Jones hangs in there and takes serious shots to deliver the pass. And everyone but Wilson is smart when they make a decision. Jones, Fields, and Lance all have very few turnover worthy throws or decisions. I think the narrative is Jones is the fastest but he plays in an offense that the scheme involves quick plays. It’s mostly RPO’s, screen, and PA. Like JTO was saying the scheme deceptively makes Mac Jones look like a fast processor. I think all three of those guys are smart. As for accurate I would rank them: Fields by a landslide, then Jones, then Lance. Lance though was a freshman and has already been working on changing his mechanics to improve his accuracy. This is one of those years where I could legitimately see them being interested in all 3 of these guys!
All of them are supposed to be hard workers and leaders but Jones and Lance get more accolades there than Fields. I get real skeptical when a black QBs intangibles get questioned. Frankly as I have said before I am fucking sick of it.
If I had to stack them in order I think the Pats would like them at 15 if all 3 were magically available it would be: Fields, Lance, Jones. The funny part is you could tell me it is Lance, Jones, Fields or Jones, Lance, Fields and I can see it.
I remember reading about Josh and Bill having some QB envy over Watson and what he brings to the table. I see Fields as the closest to Watson coming out but with a better arm and is an even better and bigger runner.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I think the only things that the Patriots could do which would annoy me in this draft is trade up & draft Mac Jones.

I'm pretty cool with all other options, with my dream scenario of course being drafting Fields or Lance & giving up as little as possible to do so.

If Fields & Lance go early, trading to the end of the 1st & picking up a 2022 1st is fine by me.
I think staying put at 15 and taking Mac Jones would also annoy me.

Trading down and taking Mac Jones, while not particularly likely, would not annoy me.
 

SMU_Sox

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A WR at 15 would annoy me. I just don't think it is a good use of resources. Not that I wouldn't be excited for the guy.

Guys I am lower on their fit here than consensus: Mac Jones. Zaven Collins. I think Collins is more of a WILL than a MIKE. He gets beaten too much by OL. He is great in coverage and is rangy. he plays better in space. And it isn't just because Tulsa uses him behind a lot of tight fronts - you can see it when he takes on pullers or guards when they get out to block him in zone runs. He just doesn't win that 1:1. And at 270 pounds you'd think he would be much more effective against OL. I like Collins but I don't love him and I feel like ILB is just not that valuable of a spot where you need to go there at 15. BB doesn't have the same thoughts on positional value as I do. What made Hightower so good was he could play on the LOS and do OLB stuff whereas that is a major projection for Collins. He could do it and he has the size to do it but he plays like a 235 pound guy not a 270 pound guy. If Collins ever unlocks his full potential he could be a pro-bowl type of talent. I get wary of guys who aren't as physical as you'd like to see.

Those are my big 3 no's for 15 or their first pick: No Mac Jones, no WR, and no Zaven Collins.

Edit: Again, with Collins it isn’t that I can’t see what he could be I just worry about this outcome: he is large and athletic but is just a good but not game changing presence on the defense.

Final edit: Collins is 25th on the composite big board so trading back might not be an option unless it is just a few spots. It would be nice if they got Collins they could also pick up a 2021 3rd rounder.
 
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tims4wins

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A WR at 15 would annoy me. I just don't think it is a good use of resources. Not that I wouldn't be excited for the guy.

Guys I am lower on their fit here than consensus: Mac Jones. Zaven Collins. I think Collins is more of a WILL than a MIKE. He gets beaten too much by OL. He is great in coverage and is rangy. he plays better in space. And it isn't just because Tulsa uses him behind a lot of tight fronts - you can see it when he takes on pullers or guards when they get out to block him in zone runs. He just doesn't win that 1:1. And at 270 pounds you'd think he would be much more effective against OL. I like Collins but I don't love him and I feel like ILB is just not that valuable of a spot where you need to go there at 15. BB doesn't have the same thoughts on positional value as I do. What made Hightower so good was he could play on the LOS and do OLB stuff whereas that is a major projection for Collins. He could do it and he has the size to do it but he plays like a 235 pound guy not a 270 pound guy. If Collins ever unlocks his full potential he could be a pro-bowl type of talent. I get wary of guys who aren't as physical as you'd like to see.

Those are my big 3 no's for 15 or their first pick: No Mac Jones, no WR, and no Zaven Collins.
What if Waddle drops?
 

SMU_Sox

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What if Waddle drops?
Waddle is only 180 pounds. I love Waddle. He is 7th overall on my board. I think he is a 4 down player who can be used to play any WR position as well as do gadgety stuff. Think he has the best RAC in the class. That being said I still would take an OT or a CB or a QB over him. But if the board went 5 QBs, 3/4 OTs, 3 CBs, Pitts, Smith, Chase and Waddle was there? He would be the only blue-chip caliber guy left. At that point I would not be upset because it's just a value proposition. But I don't think Bill would draft an 180 pound guy 15 overall when he hasn't drafted a WR under 184 pounds. He likes his guys early to be big. HT @Super Nomario
 

tims4wins

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Waddle is only 180 pounds. I love Waddle. He is 7th overall on my board. I think he is a 4 down player who can be used to play any WR position as well as do gadgety stuff. Think he has the best RAC in the class. That being said I still would take an OT or a CB or a QB over him. But if the board went 5 QBs, 3/4 OTs, 3 CBs, Pitts, Smith, Chase and Waddle was there? He would be the only blue-chip caliber guy left. At that point I would not be upset because it's just a value proposition. But I don't think Bill would draft an 180 pound guy 15 overall when he hasn't drafted a WR under 184 pounds. He likes his guys early to be big. HT @Super Nomario
Thanks great stuff.
 

snowmanny

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A WR at 15 would annoy me. I just don't think it is a good use of resources. Not that I wouldn't be excited for the guy.

Guys I am lower on their fit here than consensus: Mac Jones. Zaven Collins. I think Collins is more of a WILL than a MIKE. He gets beaten too much by OL. He is great in coverage and is rangy. he plays better in space. And it isn't just because Tulsa uses him behind a lot of tight fronts - you can see it when he takes on pullers or guards when they get out to block him in zone runs. He just doesn't win that 1:1. And at 270 pounds you'd think he would be much more effective against OL. I like Collins but I don't love him and I feel like ILB is just not that valuable of a spot where you need to go there at 15. BB doesn't have the same thoughts on positional value as I do. What made Hightower so good was he could play on the LOS and do OLB stuff whereas that is a major projection for Collins. He could do it and he has the size to do it but he plays like a 235 pound guy not a 270 pound guy. If Collins ever unlocks his full potential he could be a pro-bowl type of talent. I get wary of guys who aren't as physical as you'd like to see.

Those are my big 3 no's for 15 or their first pick: No Mac Jones, no WR, and no Zaven Collins.
What if they traded up to 4 and took.....Pitts?
 

Cellar-Door

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What if they traded up to 4 and took.....Pitts?
Given what we know about Bill I feel very confident they wouldn't do that.
Based on his history honestly the guys I could see him moving up for are at QB, and OT (and sneakily... Barmore?)
 

tims4wins

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Counterpoint, Washington trades their '22 #1 to move up to #15 and take Jones and proceed to go 2-14 leaving New England 1/1.
I would absolutely trade 15 for 19 and 51, but I think Rivera is pretty good and WFT is at worst a 6 win team and likely better.