Pats-Colts Discussion Thread

BigSoxFan

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I am convinced that avoiding Hard Knocks is the #1 reason BB wanted to be sure the Pats made the playoffs this year. Along with having the chance to win a Super Bowl.
The unintentional comedy of BB on Hard Knocks would be off the charts.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The unintentional comedy of BB on Hard Knocks would be off the charts.
The whole thing would have been amazing in an excruciating, eight hour art film kind of way. Everybody in the entire organization just being totally unnatural and quiet when the cameras are around, then giving the most deadpan boring answers in any kind of interview segment.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I am convinced that avoiding Hard Knocks is the #1 reason BB wanted to be sure the Pats made the playoffs this year. Along with having the chance to win a Super Bowl.
I have to think that if forced to be on Hard Knocks BB would come up with an entire disinformation campaign around it- what to run when cameras on/there, what players to involve. I also imagine he'd fight access at every step in every possible way.

For those reasons, you have to think the league would want to avoid it. BB would use all of his capital with Kraft to fight it at each of those steps and the league would have a mess, with the network complaining about BB's approach and Kraft feeling a need to back BB.

I can also imagine BB saying to the network "if you want access, I'll happily review the logical inconsistencies of the Exponent report with you, in week one, and then I'll do a mistake-by-mistake review of the officiating in last year's playoffs in slow mo to fill all the time you have. And we can do that every week for a couple months, with occasional diversions into the history of the single wing offense and some grainy black and white images..." While typically the league fines guys for that, it gets pretty hard to draw that boundary when he can argue he is just doing what he does every week with the team in film review.
 

Captaincoop

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Sure, go ahead and stack the box. We'll see if it works out as well for you as it did for Buff.
Stacking the box is living on the edge defensively, as evidenced by Harris' long TD run. Once you get through that 1st and 2nd level, it's off to the races.

I understand that Indy has a decent run defense, so I don't really think they will have 10 or 11 in the box. I just think they will go heavy up front. That makes them susceptible to the screens, tosses, short crosses, etc.
It should work great for Indy as long as there is a massive windstorm inside the dome.
 

Jimbodandy

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I like the Pats offensive minds coming up with a safe gameplan against Indy. Obviously it won't be as run heavy as some weeks, because that's what the Colts are best at. However, it's also what we're good at. I'm looking for the full pupu platter of runs, and eating the seams on PA. Smith and Henry should eat, but I think that it's a good game for the WR group too.

More kudos to SMU for the breakdown above. I didn't know how complex the Colts D was. This would be a bad game for a lot of deep shots, but the seams and flats should be there.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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Harris, Phillips, Dugger, Uche all present. Taylor not.
Harris surprises me. I thought he would need to miss at least this game to rehab his hamstring. Also thought this would be a good week to plug in Taylor for his speed and quickness in a dome game.

Defensively, I think BB will keep it basic and see if they can hold Jonathan Taylor in check, not caring if he piles up yards early in drives but then showing Indy something exotic in the red zone.
 

Niastri

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The unintentional comedy of BB on Hard Knocks would be off the charts.
8 episodes of guys doing their best imitation of C3PO with his power off, only to return to normal after the cameras go away. Interspersed with interviews that are 101 variations of no comment.

I'd watch it only because it's my team, but it might be the lowest rated season ever.
 

54thMA

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This game is huge for the Patriots; a win and they maintain a two game lead over the Bills for the division, plus it's a conference win and should tiebreakers come into play for playoff seeding, it's a win vs a possible team they'll be competing with for a playoff spot.

If they win this game and beat the Bills, they lock up the division and continue to be the #1 seed.

What I DO NOT want is that Miami game meaning ANYTHING regarding the division or playoff seeding.

The previous two times they played Miami the last game of the season in Miami, a loss cost them playoff seeding; one time it didn't really matter as they weren't going anywhere, but the time before IMO it cost them another SB win.
 

TomTerrific

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This game might be a tougher test than the Buffalo game was, but should also give us a much better sense of where the team is at, without the insane weather weirdness impact. 538's ELO has this game as 50/50, ESPN's FPI has the Pats at 53.5% to win, and while FO hasn't updated their matchups yet, DVOA likes both of these teams a lot, so with the Pats on the road I would expect them to predict a close one as well.

I'm not sure where the anti-Wentz confidence is coming from, he has a slight edge in DVOA over Jones, a moderate advantage in QBR, and a 22-5 TD-INT, which as a ratio is behind on Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. He doesn't take a ton of sacks, averages 4 yards per carry when he runs the ball (which he has done 41 times this year), and gets his DPI yards about the same as everyone else. I'm not saying that he is awesome, but I'm certainly not counting on him to beat himself. Luckily, JC Jackson is ready to take on that role. I hope that if you take Pittman away with a top corner, there isn't much left, and then it is just a slugfest in the trenches.
Preach, brother, preach.

I’ll admit I was somewhat dismissive of Wentz earlier in the season, but I think the “Wentz will kill his team if allowed to” idea is flat out wrong, Also,
it’s unclear to me how you trade off the threat Taylor represents against Wentz and his game, just given the greater ability of QBs, even mediocre ones, to generate yards and scoring in today’s NFL.

Wentz in general has done well when he’s had good coaching, and Bad Wentz is mostly memories of 2020. He appears to have a good coach right now, so that’s at least some cause for concern.

Minor correction: Jones is slightly ahead of Wentz, not vice versa as stated, in FO’s QB stats such as DYAR and DVOA. But it’s very close, so I’m kind of just viewing that as a wash.
 

DeadlySplitter

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One of TEN or KC is probably going to win out up to week 18, so I doubt Miami game is going to be meaningless.
 

Harry Hooper

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Hemoglobin? Are you predicting a bloodbath Saturday night?

The whole thing would have been amazing in an excruciating, eight hour art film kind of way. Everybody in the entire organization just being totally unnatural and quiet when the cameras are around, then giving the most deadpan boring answers in any kind of interview segment.
I'd expect a lot of screen time for Stacey James, either shooing the film crew out of sessions {"This meeting is over, guys."} or blocking them from entering certain meetings entirely.



Does the week off for the bye have any positive healing effects on the punter? Corliss Waitman is now on the practice squad.
 

pokey_reese

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Preach, brother, preach.

I’ll admit I was somewhat dismissive of Wentz earlier in the season, but I think the “Wentz will kill his team if allowed to” idea is flat out wrong, Also,
it’s unclear to me how you trade off the threat Taylor represents against Wentz and his game, just given the greater ability of QBs, even mediocre ones, to generate yards and scoring in today’s NFL.

Wentz in general has done well when he’s had good coaching, and Bad Wentz is mostly memories of 2020. He appears to have a good coach right now, so that’s at least some cause for concern.

Minor correction: Jones is slightly ahead of Wentz, not vice versa as stated, in FO’s QB stats such as DYAR and DVOA. But it’s very close, so I’m kind of just viewing that as a wash.
Hah, that's funny. I made my post at around 10 am, and at that time, FO had Wentz at 14, and Jones at 15 by DYAR (how they sort by default), but then they updated at 1:48 pm and they flipped. I assume, since both teams were on a bye this week, that it's because their weekly QB update shifts the defensive opponent adjustments made for previous games. In any case, as you said, it's close enough to be basically a wash by their metrics.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think anyone underestimating the Colts is making a big mistake. Maybe the Pats win. Maybe the Pats win handily. Maybe the Colts will do Colts-like things. But they're actually pretty good.

#3 in the NFL in points scored
#9 in the NFL in points allowed

Best running back in football (now that Henry is out). Awesome offensive line. A QB who is very capable especially if teams load up against the run. Seven games this year with a passer rating of over 100. Other than their loss to Seattle to start the year, all their losses are to very good teams: Rams, Titans (x2), Bucs, and the Ravens. They've also beaten San Francisco and destroyed Buffalo, and now the win against Miami looks like a quality win too.

So yeah, they're very good. They're at home. Like the Pats, they're coming off their own bye week. I think this game will be a handful for the Pats and if they can't slow Taylor down, it might be a very very hard game to win. Of course, the Pats have won games where they've allowed lots of rushing yards but very little in the air, so it could also go that way.

We shall see.
Yeah and the sharp money has been pouring in on the Colts since the Pats opened -2.5 on the lookahead a week ago. Interestingly, Belichick has been a guy the Sharps have loved to fade in the past as well as many games this year only to defy their overvalued position consistently. I recall one year in the mid-2000’s maybe when we covered like 10 weeks in a row or something like that.

117BCF07-D7FD-4E67-9034-47321B180161.png
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Seels

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Lol what rivalry exists between these teams? When is the last time the Pats lost to the Colts, 4th and 2? Rivalry. Hahaha.
 

RedOctober3829

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Lol what rivalry exists between these teams? When is the last time the Pats lost to the Colts, 4th and 2? Rivalry. Hahaha.
Yep, Colts haven't beaten the Patriots since 11/15/09. In fact, since 2001 the Patriots are 15-5 against the Colts including the postseason including winning the last 8 in a row and 9 of the past 11.
 

m0ckduck

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Andrew Luck going 0-Career against the Pats was a beautiful thing.
You know those lists of the most important people in the Brady-Belichick era that include Mo Lewis? Ryan Grigson should be there too. Underrated in the story of the Pats' sustained dominance over the AFC for 20 years is the fact that only a single new elite QB appeared in the conference between 2005 - 2017, and he was kneecapped by a GM who ran a clinic in how to squander the advantages of a cost-controlled young QB.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Interesting stat from today's Athletic:

If Godchaux can continue to shine, and Dugger and Phillips can be back to full speed roaming and destroying, I think we can make that latter stat move to 0-7.
7-1.

I expect Taylor to gobble up 130ish yards, and I expect the Pat's to win by double digits.

Edit: to add a little more context, the Colts have beat the Dolphins when they were sliding, the Texans twice, the Jets, the Jaguars, the 49ers (who have beaten nobody), and the Bills (who can't stop a nose bleed). The Colts wanting to run 40 times and prove "were tough, too!!1!" Falls perfectly into BBs bend but don't break mentality.

Taylor can rip 130 yards, Wentz can get 180, and we win by double digits.
 
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Over Guapo Grande

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I am trying to find it now, but I saw a piece (article/video/post here) about how good Bentley has been in terms of not allowing the OL to get to the second level. I will post the link when I find it, but it showed how he (Bentley) was able to get into the LoS to tie up a blocker. I think that opens the D up to play-fakes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Indy go hard with that early.
 

pokey_reese

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7-1.

I expect Taylor to gobble up 130ish yards, and I expect the Pat's to win by double digits.

Edit: to add a little more context, the Colts have beat the Dolphins when they were sliding, the Texans twice, the Jets, the Jaguars, the 49ers (who have beaten nobody), and the Bills (who can't stop a nose bleed). The Colts wanting to run 40 times and prove "were tough, too!!1!" Falls perfectly into BBs bend but don't break mentality.

Taylor can rip 130 yards, Wentz can get 180, and we win by double digits.
It's true that they've beaten mostly bad teams, but I think part of why they are well-regarded is that the flip side of that is most of their losses were close against good teams.

Lost to the Rams by 3
Lost to the (good early) Titans by 9
Lost to the (good early) Ravens 6
Lost to the (good early) Titans by 3
Lost to the Bucs by 7

Four of those losses were by one score, and against teams that were arguably top-5 in the league at the time they played them. Much like the Pats losing to the Bucs and Cowboys in close games, they are getting some credit for playing good teams tough, being a bounce or two away, etc.. Beating the Pats would give them the 'signature win' that the media craves so much heading into the stretch, so I really don't want them to get it.

Edit: Worth noting that in their two games against the early-season Titans, they held Henry to 177 yards on 56 carries, which is 3.16 ypc, WAY better than the Bills did. This will be the best run defense the Pats have seen, so Harris & Co. will have their hands full.
 

Super Nomario

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Edit: to add a little more context, the Colts have beat the Dolphins when they were sliding, the Texans twice, the Jets, the Jaguars, the 49ers (who have beaten nobody), and the Bills (who can't stop a nose bleed). The Colts wanting to run 40 times and prove "were tough, too!!1!" Falls perfectly into BBs bend but don't break mentality.
The Bills have one of the better defenses in the league - they're 3rd in scoring defense, 1st in total defense (2nd in both on a per-drive basis). The Colts put up 41 on them, though they were also abetted by four turnovers.

I don't like this line of argument because you could basically argue similar about any team, including us. What are our quality wins, just the Chargers really? Maybe the Browns (though they're kind of paper tigers like the 49ers)?

I do think there's some reason to be skeptical of the Colts - Wentz' INT rate is probably unsustainable, and their defense is propped up by a turnover rate that will certainly regress - but I think you can poke holes in just about anyone's schedule.
 

Riconway3155

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Andrew Luck going 0-Career against the Pats was a beautiful thing.
That is a pretty amazing stat that I never would have guessed. Thank you for pointing that out. I know his career was shorter than expected, but batting .000 against a team is still hilarious considering how much of a "rivalry" it was for a while.
 

snowmanny

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That is a pretty amazing stat that I never would have guessed. Thank you for pointing that out. I know his career was shorter than expected, but batting .000 against a team is still hilarious considering how much of a "rivalry" it was for a while.
Luck was frequently placed ahead of Brady in all those delusional quarterback rankings you see out there. Meanwhile, Brady and the Patriots posted the following point totals against Luck and the Colts: 59, 43, 42, 45, 34, 38.

edit: Chris Simms top 5, November 2014 (that’s between 42 and 45 above):
1. Rodgers; 2. Luck; 3. Roethlisberger; 4. Wilson; 5. PManning. lol

Actually of those five Luck is currently still number two on the list.
 
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nighthob

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The best part of the Andrew Luck story is still that he was anointed Brady's successor as the best QB in the game, and Brady outlasted him and is still going strong all these years later.
 

ShaneTrot

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I want to see how Indy handles this 2 back running attack. The only teams that use a FB more than NE are SF and the Ravens. And NE just uses Johnson as a battering ram and to create advantageous blocking angles. Plus NE's running game is so different with Trent Brown out there. Can Indy stop this?
Is this the week Johnson gets a carry, he has no rushing statistics on Pro Football Reference?
 

RedOctober3829

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Our own Mark Schofield has a very good write up about this matchup. He thinks the Patriots can counter the Colts' stacking of the box with creating extra gaps or crafting blocking angles that will open up holes. He says Jakob Johnson is going to be a huge key in creating these holes by taking on blockers that will create room for Harris and/or Stevenson. The 49ers had success doing this according to Mark. He also references how the Patriots have success pulling their guards on inside traps or whams to create blocking angles that help. He gives examples of how Tampa used these concepts for big gains. He goes onto say that if they do have success in the run game, it will open up Mac's best attributes and that's using play action.

It's an outstanding read.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/new-england-patriots-indianapolis-colts-mac-jones/
 

Jimbodandy

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Is it possible that maybe "put it in Mac's hands" is not the best defensive approach for Indy to take?
Seems like a bit of psyops to me. Their game plan is probably more like "don't let them run the ball down our throats for 200+ yards".

"We're gonna make Mac beat us" sounds cooler than that though.
 

Old Fart Tree

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Andrew Luck going 0-Career against the Pats was a beautiful thing.

God that sparked joy. I remember a colts fan telling me I would root for Indy because of luck. I told him plenty of my classmates went to Goldman Sachs, I sure as fuck didn’t root for their employer to do well. Once you’re off the farm you’re on your own.
 

Marciano490

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God that sparked joy. I remember a colts fan telling me I would root for Indy because of luck. I told him plenty of my classmates went to Goldman Sachs, I sure as fuck didn’t root for their employer to do well. Once you’re off the farm you’re on your own.
Irsay needs to hang a banner, “Compared to Goldman Sachs on a Message Board.”
 

Harry Hooper

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Nice to have two stud talents are running back. Rhamondre can carry the load, and Bolden is fine as a secondary/third down option.

BB yesterday:
Belichick spoke at length on Thursday about Bolden’s increased contributions to a Patriots team on its way to the playoffs, both in terms of his on-field play and his leadership.

“Brandon’s one of the best and always has been,” the coach glowed
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Meanwhile JJ Taylor is still not practicing after being put on the Covid list 2 weeks ago right? This could have been his entrance but may be his exit.
Devine Ozigbo is the RB on the practice squad. I don't think that the Pats would go into a game with 2 healthy tailbacks. He averaged 5.2 yds/rush in his career at Nebraska (including 7 his senior year). I would have to imagine him being elevated tomorrow, rather than going into the game with only 2 healthy "tailbacks" (I would have said RB, but I didn't want to lump JJ into that list). But, of course, there is me, a schlub behind a keyboard, and then there is BB/JMD. So maybe Harry lines up behind Mac in the pistol.
 

Soxy

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Colts may have some success moving the ball, especially compared to the performances the Pats defense have been putting up, but I'm not sure their defense will be up to the task. I expect big days out of Bolden and the TEs. Might be a big Jakobi Meyers day too. Colts defense is weak against TEs and weak in the middle (in the passing game). If they try and overload to compensate, Mac will have some shots on the outside, or the TEs in the seams.

I think this sort of goes similar to the Titans game and the Pats make a bit of a statement on national TV. I generally like Reich as a coach, but I still have some questions about his game day management, and that usually doesn't bode well when you're going up against Belichick.
 
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Big games for Stevenson (because he's a load with some moves, is playing on turf and getting lots of touches) and the Bourne Supremacy (because he's gotten more comfortable in the offense, and I think we'll be throwing a lot tonight). 27-21, Patriots in a game that's tougher than that sounds.

EDIT: added reasons why b/c I don't want to get scolded.