2023 Pats: Offseason

DJnVa

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He's in demand, clearly we need to keep him. Probably promote him.
 

NickEsasky

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Can someone explain the AR hype to me please? His physical traits are off the charts and the best since Cam Newton at Auburn but his actual production is non existent. Cam took a underwhelming Auburn roster to the National Championship while Richardson led Florida to 6 wins.
 

Cellar-Door

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Can someone explain the AR hype to me please? His physical traits are off the charts and the best since Cam Newton at Auburn but his actual production is non existent. Cam took a underwhelming Auburn roster to the National Championship while Richardson led Florida to 6 wins.
College QB and NFL QB are very different, and Richardson has barely played QB is a lot of it, there is ample evidence that college wins/losses has no real impact on pro success, it's about traits you can develop. And Richardson is young with little experience, so teams look at him and see a lot of growth potential. Also probably helps that he played in the SEC so he faced good defenses while being on a bad team with not that much skill position talent.

If he had Cam's performance he's be the clear #1, a generational prospect that teams would be trading huge hauls for, instead of in discussions for 1, but also maybe the 3rd or 4th QB taken.

Teams look at college to see how you played, but not really to see if you won.
Look at some top QBs....
Josh Allen was not very good, and had a mediocre record playing in a 3rd tier conference on one of the more talented teams.
Mahomes put up good numbers but was .500 as a starter.
 

kenneycb

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People also suffer from overconfidence and see Josh Allen and think "I can fix him" when Josh Allen's improvement is the anomaly and not the norm.
 

Cellar-Door

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People also suffer from overconfidence and see Josh Allen and think "I can fix him" when Josh Allen's improvement is the anomaly and not the norm.
To an extent. Allen is an anomaly yes, but honestly more for what happened in the NFL than for the college to pro conversation. But there is some basis for looking at inexperienced QBs with great physical tools and seeing that you can make them into good to elite NFL QBs. In particular there is more recent evidence of that than the idea that you can win with a guy who was an accuracy guy in college. You can't teach a guy to become an elite running threat, you can only do so much to improve throw strength through mechanics. But you can make those same mechanics tweaks to turn a guy with an inaccurate cannon into a guy with a more accurate cannon. You can teach a guy to read the field, and work on decision making, there is no physical ceiling there.

Really it comes down to:
1. It's hard to find an elite NFL QB.
2. Finding an elite NFL QB makes you a perrenial contender.
3. Almost nobody comes out of college an elite QB.
4. There are basically no elite QBs left in the league who don't have at least 1 if not more elite physical traits.

So if you see a guy with elite traits, you see a guy who MIGHT become an elite QB, you see one without them... that guy isn't likely to be an elite QB.
 

Shelterdog

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People also suffer from overconfidence and see Josh Allen and think "I can fix him" when Josh Allen's improvement is the anomaly and not the norm.
Maybe. But the risk/reward is very enticing and a project-type QB might buy you a little more time as a GM or coach than a more polished QB.
 

Shelterdog

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Speaking of OL, can’t wait for this loser to be gone:
Wynn was just a disaster of a pick. All the reports suggested he was a tough hard working guy who would be a super guard if tackle didn't work out. Aside from the injuries there were a reasonable number of things said about his practice habits (albeit Bedard claims), the tweets seem like he's an annoying guy, and he just wasn't that good, perhaps due to injuries.
 

BigSoxFan

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Wynn was just a disaster of a pick. All the reports suggested he was a tough hard working guy who would be a super guard if tackle didn't work out. Aside from the injuries there were a reasonable number of things said about his practice habits (albeit Bedard claims), the tweets seem like he's an annoying guy, and he just wasn't that good, perhaps due to injuries.
Picked right before DJ Moore…ouch. I liked the Wynn pick and thought it was going to be a good one. Too bad it didn’t work out. That initial injury was such a downer.
 

Shelterdog

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Picked right before DJ Moore…ouch. I liked the Wynn pick and thought it was going to be a good one. Too bad it didn’t work out. That initial injury was such a downer.
He missed a lot of practices this year with a reported back injury--i suspect that's why he was so shitty and slow (and the false starts are likely related--it seemed to me he was trying to overcompensate to get into position faster).
 

lexrageorge

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It was a 99.99% certainty that Wynn was gone this offseason; it's now 99.999%. Tough result for a first rounder.
 

Justthetippett

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It was a 99.99% certainty that Wynn was gone this offseason; it's now 99.999%. Tough result for a first rounder.
With the amount of work that goes into scouting it's really incredible to me that they miss red flags like work ethic and attitude. (Or that they discount them.) I don't doubt that injuries played a role, but that seems to tell only a small part of the story.
 

j44thor

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With the amount of work that goes into scouting it's really incredible to me that they miss red flags like work ethic and attitude. (Or that they discount them.) I don't doubt that injuries played a role, but that seems to tell only a small part of the story.
It still kills me they scouted GA that heavily and we ended up with Sony over Chubb.
 

lexrageorge

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With the amount of work that goes into scouting it's really incredible to me that they miss red flags like work ethic and attitude. (Or that they discount them.) I don't doubt that injuries played a role, but that seems to tell only a small part of the story.
Or some colege players are better at hiding their poor work ethic or attitude when the pros are looking, and college coaches are happy to look the other way.
 

Shelterdog

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With the amount of work that goes into scouting it's really incredible to me that they miss red flags like work ethic and attitude. (Or that they discount them.) I don't doubt that injuries played a role, but that seems to tell only a small part of the story.
What reports there were said he had a great work ethic and attitude! That definitely doesn't seem to be the case. Were the reports wrong or did making millions of dollars when he was 22 change him? I have no idea.
 

joe dokes

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Or some colege players are better at hiding their poor work ethic or attitude when the pros are looking, and college coaches are happy to look the other way.
And give their guys glowing recommendations, regardless, because its good for recruiting to get guys drafted. Nothing is foolproof, but I think we can assume that Saban, Ferentz and the few others that BB trusts give him the straight dope on the behind the scenes stuff. (On-field fails are on BB/pro staff).
 

jezza1918

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It still kills me they scouted GA that heavily and we ended up with Sony over Chubb.
Just out of curiosity how do you divvy up the blame pie with something like this? Or the Wynn pick for that matter. Because your post prompted me to do a quick google search for "2018 nfl draft big board" and after perusing some top results, each list I looked at had Sony ahead of Chubb (in some cases about 30 spots), and had Wynn anywhere from 16-33. In both cases it just kind of seems like the player himself didn't live up to billing, because if the Pats scouts failed...so did pretty much everyone studying the draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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Or some colege players are better at hiding their poor work ethic or attitude when the pros are looking, and college coaches are happy to look the other way.
Or, as is often the case, the incentives to work hard and keep your head down when it helps you get life altering wealth is very different from the incentives when you have that wealth and you are hurt/injured (even guys who are "healthy" in-season are usually in pretty consistent pain, it's brutal on your body).

In some ways the guys who make the best NFL players are the crazy people, people who are immensely wealthy, but ruin their long term health in order to play an extra game or an extra year, those aren't really rational actors.
 

Zincman

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Wynn is a cautionary tale for this year's draft in this respect. Don't draft a guard to play tackle. Kicking inside is easier than kicking outside and drafting someone who is best suited to guard because you NEED a tackle is a fool's errand.
 

SMU_Sox

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I think Wynn would have been fine as an OT but he went from being athletic to... well after injuries... a shell of what he was at UGA. His foot quickness and explosiveness completely deteriorated. He had a 2.5 year run as an above average to average LT and then it all went down the drain (not necessarily for the whole season in those years). I think the injuries are being understated here. He looks awful.
 

Cellar-Door

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Feel like people are kind of ret-conning Wynn's career.
He was hurt then pretty decent his 1st year
He was legitimately very good his 2nd year... then missed the end of the season with Covid
He was decent his 3rd year, a step back, but still acceptable low end starter (edit- then got injured in the last RS game)
Last year he was really bad.
 

Shelterdog

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Feel like people are kind of ret-conning Wynn's career.
He was hurt then pretty decent his 1st year
He was legitimately very good his 2nd year... then missed the end of the season with Covid
He was decent his 3rd year, a step back, but still acceptable low end starter (edit- then got injured in the last RS game)
Last year he was really bad.
Agreed (those were technically years 2-5; he missed his entire rookie year b/c of an injury, an achilles IIRC). His movement skills got much worse his forth year and particularly his fifth year--like I mentioned he missed practice time with a back so I wonder if that was the issue.
 

j44thor

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Just out of curiosity how do you divvy up the blame pie with something like this? Or the Wynn pick for that matter. Because your post prompted me to do a quick google search for "2018 nfl draft big board" and after perusing some top results, each list I looked at had Sony ahead of Chubb (in some cases about 30 spots), and had Wynn anywhere from 16-33. In both cases it just kind of seems like the player himself didn't live up to billing, because if the Pats scouts failed...so did pretty much everyone studying the draft.
I thought this article posted before the draft broke down the two extremely well. I guess the one advantage Sony had was in pass pro but NE never really used him in that role so it probably shouldn't have outweigh everything Chubb did better which was just about everything else.

Sony vs Chubb breakdown
 

koufax32

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Can someone explain the AR hype to me please? His physical traits are off the charts and the best since Cam Newton at Auburn but his actual production is non existent. Cam took a underwhelming Auburn roster to the National Championship while Richardson led Florida to 6 wins.
Gator fan here. His decision making is off the charts horrible. My dream scenario is Indy drafting him and setting themselves back several years.
 

GB5

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Pats officially get pick number 135(4th round) and 210(6th round) as compensatory picks in this years draft.
 

Section15Box113

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Pats officially get pick number 135(4th round) and 210(6th round) as compensatory picks in this years draft.
Interesting. So 4th for JC and 6th for Karras as expected. If I’m remembering correctly, thought OverTheCap had them potentially getting a 7th for Bolden too. Oh well.
 

Section15Box113

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Cellar-Door

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Why wasn’t JC a 3? Because he got hurt?
basically. Formula is they take how much money you got, rank you by APY, subtract that number from the number of players who signed.
Then they add a # between 25 and 100 for the percentage of snaps you played
The add postseason award bonuses.

They then take that number and if it is in the 95th percentile or higher you get a 3rd, down to 90th is a 4th, 85th is a 5th, etc. Then they take the top 32 only.

Only 2 players got 3rds... Scherff for the Browns who made the same APY as JC but played 97% of snaps in all 17 games, and Kirk for Arizona who had a higher APY and played 88% of snaps in 17 games.
JC played 79% of snaps in 5 games of 17. He was the only 4th round comp pick.
 

BigSoxFan

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basically. Formula is they take how much money you got, rank you by APY, subtract that number from the number of players who signed.
Then they add a # between 25 and 100 for the percentage of snaps you played
The add postseason award bonuses.

They then take that number and if it is in the 95th percentile or higher you get a 3rd, down to 90th is a 4th, 85th is a 5th, etc. Then they take the top 32 only.

Only 2 players got 3rds... Scherff for the Browns who made the same APY as JC but played 97% of snaps in all 17 games, and Kirk for Arizona who had a higher APY and played 88% of snaps in 17 games.
JC played 79% of snaps in 5 games of 17. He was the only 4th round comp pick.
Ah, thanks. Welp, that sucks. An extra 3 would have been huge this year but we’ve had some 4th round hits so could be alright.
 

E5 Yaz

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Ah, thanks. Welp, that sucks. An extra 3 would have been huge this year but we’ve had some 4th round hits so could be alright.
Then again, when was the last time the Patriots picked in the exact spots they were heading into the draft?
 

Justthetippett

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Barth lays out the Patriots’ picks as they currently stand:

View: https://twitter.com/realalexbarth/status/1633956567208062977?s=46&t=7rIIKGiPODU0L_yFm9rf_g



With the comp picks now in, the Patriots' draft board officially looks like this:

1/14
2/46
3/76 (from CAR, 2022 draft trade)
4/107 (from LAR, Sony Michel)
4/117
4/135 (J.C. Jackson)
6/184 (from CAR, Stephon Gilmore)
6/187 (from LV, Jarrett Stidham)
6/192
6/210 (comp)
Bill will want to close that gap between 135 and 184. Plenty of options to do so.
 

Ed Hillel

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I just heard from someone who works with Jake Bailey's wife that Bailey has been released. Jake, not the wife.

Since Twitter is down, I guess I'm your Twitter for the moment.
 

Ed Hillel

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Am I wrong in reading that there's now a 2.3 million dead cap hit with cutting him?
This is true, but they still "save" 800k cutting him, and, more importantly, have one less shitty punter on the roster.
 

SMU_Sox

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I thought this article posted before the draft broke down the two extremely well. I guess the one advantage Sony had was in pass pro but NE never really used him in that role so it probably shouldn't have outweigh everything Chubb did better which was just about everything else.

Sony vs Chubb breakdown
Strongly disagree in that he was excellent in pass pro on 1st and 2nd down when he was in. They didn’t just put him on the field to run although they did run at a much higher rate with him in.

Gator fan here. His decision making is off the charts horrible. My dream scenario is Indy drafting him and setting themselves back several years.
I couldn’t disagree more with a broad brush stroke. His decision making is usually good. His delivery can be bad. He can also try to be too aggressive/play hero ball. He led the SEC in throwaways last year because your shitty pass catchers couldn’t get open vs air. He had to throw into a lot of tighter windows. He’s had games where his post snap reads vs zone were off and that is usually because he was expecting or thinking it wouldn’t be that coverage post snap. That is better it with hero ball. If you don’t take my word for it, and I don’t blame you if you don’t, check out JT O’Sullivan’s patreon. He praises his decision making in the game he saw vs Utah for example (he spends an hour and twenty minutes breaking down the entire game of all-22).

Compare Lamar’s first year as a starter vs AR. Lamar was basically 1 read and run. (That changed over time). AR was going through half to full field progressions in year 1 in the SEC. Keep that in mind too.
 

katnado

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This is true, but they still "save" 800k cutting him, and, more importantly, have one less shitty punter on the roster.
Just making sure I'm reading it right, still trying to learn the cap idiosyncrasies for the NFL. Thanks! BUT yes agreed, one less shitty punter is a good thing.