Patriots vs. Titans Divisional Playoff: The Buildup

BigJimEd

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Yes, it's a real thing. Bigger backs are harder to take down as fatigue sets in.
Are there stats available that show splits by carry?
We could compare a bigger backs to other "less physical" backs and see if they are more productive the more carries they get and if that increase is more than a smaller less physical back

Edit: or as Bakahump said much more eloquently
 

wnyghost

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Not sure how big a factor fatigue is but I can definitely see defensive backs making business decisions not go after the big running back (Revis last weekend). Occasionally you will see an offense start to dominate and the defensive effort fall.
 

simplyeric

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What I wonder is if they will treat this the way they used to go against Pitt, with pass-pass-pass. (I recall one game where I think the first 15 plays were passes.). In those games, the personnel would often be no RB's or one split wide. Here, I wonder if they go with two RB's, maybe even RB/FB, to get Tenn to commit to a traditional front 7, and then split everyone out wide.
But the stat is Titans defending against passing plays to RB's, and they don't seem great at defending against TE's either. So, sure, they might go "large" with the intent to pass and if Titans stay true to form, they'll march down the field.

But if the Titans somehow show a new front that is successful v. RB passes, and traditional (non-Gronk) TE sets, then Gronk will kill them deep, or it will leave the middle open to zone exploitation I'd think. So they wouldn't want to commit to 2 RB sets and I wouldn't expect them to go to RB/FB type set in a heavy run it down their throat package (not that they won't also mix that in: if Titans commit to pass D on the RB's it should leave running lanes, no?).

The 2nd RB or FB takes a potential WR off the field, and I kinda think they should have Cooks in there to a. pull some pass protection downfield and off RB's, and b. to stretch downfield if Titan's over-commit to RB protection. (is Hogan out for Saturday, or expected to be limited?)

If Titans were good on D and also good on RB pass defense, that would be one thing. But they aren't.
 

Bergs

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I hope BB isn't letting these guys look past this week to the AFCG, because I sure as shit keep finding myself doing that.
 

dcmissle

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I hope BB isn't letting these guys look past this week to the AFCG, because I sure as shit keep finding myself doing that.
Why? They are prohibitive 85% favorites. About as high as it gets. That still means we lose 3 times out of every 20, leaving us with 8 months of WTF suck. It happens. If memory serves, the Pats were 78% favorites in the perfect season SB. The giants had more plausible paths to an upset than the Titans in this game, but still. Anyone who overlooks anyone is an idiot.
 

E5 Yaz

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reiss: Tom Brady and Marcus Mariota will set the NFL record for largest age gap between starting QBs in playoff history - 16 years, 88 days. Steve DeBerg/Todd Marinovich (15 years, 166 days) - from then1991 Chiefs/Raiders wild-card game (10-6 KC) -- was the previous record, per the Elias Sports Bureau.
 

Bergs

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Why? They are prohibitive 85% favorites. About as high as it gets. That still means we lose 3 times out of every 20, leaving us with 8 months of WTF suck. It happens. If memory serves, the Pats were 78% favorites in the perfect season SB. The giants had more plausible paths to an upset than the Titans in this game, but still. Anyone who overlooks anyone is an idiot.
The Pats would have to shit down their leg to lose this game. That invalidates neither your point nor my own.
 

BaseballJones

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It's the playoffs and because it's a one-and-done, every game, no matter the opponent, makes me nervous.

Anyone who says "It's Marcus Mariota...you really think he's gonna out play Tom Brady?" as if that's simply not possible...is completely crazy.
 

H78

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That’s excellent too.
It’s huge, especially if he’s at full strength.

He’ll help stretch the field a lot more, which should free up Cooks. Honestly, I’d love to see Dorsett and Cooks wide at opposite sides of the field, Hogan and Gronk on opposing seams, and basically have all four run “go” routes and see how a defense tries to stop it.

Cover-2 leaves a each safety having to choose whether to cover the seam or the sideline. Cover-3 leaves the middle of the field open for the RB (actually, so would Cover-2). It’d be a nightmare. Have Cooks line up the same side as Gronk and you’re leaving safeties with the tough decision to double Gronk or protect the top with Cooks. On the other side of the field you just need Dorsett or Hogan to beat likely man coverage on a second or third cornerback. Hah.
 

H78

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If the weather’s halfway decent and Brady has a mediocre or poor game against this D with all of the weapons that’ll be on the field, the “decline” chatter is going to start getting a lot louder.
 

Al Zarilla

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If the weather’s halfway decent and Brady has a mediocre or poor game against this D with all of the weapons that’ll be on the field, the “decline” chatter is going to start getting a lot louder.
How’s his Achilles though? Those things can take weeks to get over.
 

johnmd20

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If the weather’s halfway decent and Brady has a mediocre or poor game against this D with all of the weapons that’ll be on the field, the “decline” chatter is going to start getting a lot louder.
Definitely. And if has a great game, presumably the chatter will cease. So you're not really saying anything.
 

Seels

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You guys want any more reason to shit on the Titans?

Let me set the scene for you. It's 2006, the Patriots are more or less locked into the 4 seed, heading into a meaningless week 17 game against the Titans, that can be of no benefit to either team.
In the game, Jeff Fisher sends Bobby Wade to go low on a play against Rodney Harrison in a play when the ball is on the other side of the field. Bobby Wade tears Harrison's ACL, Harrison never quite recovers, Jeff Fisher is smirking like the asshat he is on the sideline.

Flash forward a few weeks later, the Patriots have no one to cover the Colts tight end Dallas Clark, who has around a million yards against the Patriots, as James Sanders was never really known for his coverage skills. Dallas Clark, with Harrison in coverage, had 42 yards on two receptions earlier in the year.The Pats lose in memorable fashion, and the Colts go on to win against the worst Superbowl team of the last 20 years, the 2006 Bears.

Fuck Jeff Fisher, Fuck Bobby Wade, Fuck the Titans.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If the weather’s halfway decent and Brady has a mediocre or poor game against this D with all of the weapons that’ll be on the field, the “decline” chatter is going to start getting a lot louder.
Well certainly in another thread in this very forum. [emoji4]
 

Red Averages

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For this game? The more wind the better.
I’d want as neutral conditions as possible given the Patriots have a massive advantage that can only be interrupted by creating a large amount of volatility in the factors (climate, turnovers, sickness, etc). But that’s just me.
 

Sportsbstn

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I’d want as neutral conditions as possible given the Patriots have a massive advantage that can only be interrupted by creating a large amount of volatility in the factors (climate, turnovers, sickness, etc). But that’s just me.
It’s not just you. Especially on the wind. The patriots passing game is light years better, wind can be an equalizer. Least wind possible please
 

BaseballJones

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I’d want as neutral conditions as possible given the Patriots have a massive advantage that can only be interrupted by creating a large amount of volatility in the factors (climate, turnovers, sickness, etc). But that’s just me.
That's exactly right. When you have the talent advantage, you want the game to be played straight up. When you have a talent disadvantage you need to find ways to disrupt that - scheme, weather, luck, bad calls, freak occurrences, trickery, once-in-a-lifetime plays or performances, etc. Make anything but talent be a deciding factor.

The Pats should win no matter the weather but bad weather makes actually plays to Tennessee's advantage, not New England's.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I’d want as neutral conditions as possible given the Patriots have a massive advantage that can only be interrupted by creating a large amount of volatility in the factors (climate, turnovers, sickness, etc). But that’s just me.
Yeah, I'm bucking the crowd thought on this one.

Titans can only do one thing effectively, and that's run the ball. If you put 8 guys in the box and sell out against the run, it leaves the deep pass vulnerable. A strong wind wreaks havoc on deep passes, not the 12-yards and under passes that the Patriots often run (Gronk seam excluded). I'd be more concerned that the deep ball could burn the Patriots over wind.

8 men in the box stops the run, strong wind negates the deep ball, Titans struggle to score 10 points.

Sounds like it's moot anyway, but that's how I would have liked to see it play out.
 

TheoShmeo

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I hope BB isn't letting these guys look past this week to the AFCG, because I sure as shit keep finding myself doing that.
Coming back to this concern, I don't see the Pats getting trapped. I can't think of a playoff loss over the years that I thought was down to them looking past an opponent. Even that ridiculous Jets loss in 2010 was more about playing tight and Ryan's D disrupting Tom than not being up for the game, I would think. I also think that the Titans came back from 3-21 to a team that beat the Patriots gives Belichick and the players themselves all they need to not take this team lightly.

As to concerns about the Titans taking out Gronk, my reaction to the Kelce play last week was that it was not dirty. I am wrong about that?
 

Stitch01

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Why? They are prohibitive 85% favorites. About as high as it gets. That still means we lose 3 times out of every 20, leaving us with 8 months of WTF suck. It happens. If memory serves, the Pats were 78% favorites in the perfect season SB. The giants had more plausible paths to an upset than the Titans in this game, but still. Anyone who overlooks anyone is an idiot.
The players on the team shouldnt be overlooking the game. Its a pretty boring game as a fan. Its not much different from the Bills coming to town week 16, higher stakes I guess but the Pats arent going to lose this game barring some sort of crazy injury situation. I can't say Im particularly excited about it beyond getting it out of the way and getting to a more competitive AFCCG.

The Kelce hit wasnt dirty and I have no idea why we would be worried about the Titans taking out Gronk. Jeff Fisher hasnt coached the team in a long time. Logan Ryan was brought into lead the secondary. I dont see any reason to worry that they are a dirty team or are gunning for Gronk
 

Blue Monkey

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I disagree with the whole “bad weather” thing. I understand where you guys are coming from but I don’t think it’s that much of an equalizer at all. If anything history, shows that it affects the opponents much more than the Patriots. My prediction 59-0.
 

dcmissle

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I really dislike Jeff Fisher. I don’t know that any person who is not a fanatic Rams booster is enjoying the Rams’ success more than I am.

But to forever taint the Titans because Fisher once coached there? That is Michael Jordan level searching for insults. Some folks need to get a grip.
 

TFisNEXT

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I disagree with the whole “bad weather” thing. I understand where you guys are coming from but I don’t think it’s that much of an equalizer at all. If anything history, shows that it affects the opponents much more than the Patriots. My prediction 59-0.
I was actually thinking of the 59-0 game vs Titans in the snow in 2009 when I was reading about bad weather. Patriots seem to thrive in bad weather. The two playoff victories over the Colts in 2003 and 2004 also come to mind.
 

normstalls

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Rich Eisen is trying HARD to give the Titans a lot more than a fighting chance in this one - he is claiming he has 8 or so facts/reasons as to why the Titans can/will win. The first was fairly interesting. I may not have it 100% accurate - I apologize, he just read it over the air, but it was something like this:

When opponents run it 27 or more times vs. the BB/TB Patriots in the post-season the Pats are 8-9, when they don't the Pats are 17-0. The Titans are 8-2 this year when they run it 27 or more times.

He is telling em to run it, run it, run it. Makes sense - why wouldn't they?

That puts me in KFP's camp. Stack the box and make MM beat em with the deep ball.
 

tims4wins

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But that's a logical fallacy. You can run run run when you are ahead. If you just run it the first 27 plays of the game just for the sake of running it you may be behind 20-0.
 

Red Averages

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I'm sure there is no correlation at all to the fact that teams can run it 27+ times in a game when ahead vs. behind. This is a Titans team that is 24th in pass defensive dvoa against a Pats team that hasn't been healthier in that regard all year. It will not be close, and Ten will not be in control.
 

tims4wins

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On Inside the NFL Brandon Marshall predicted this would be the game of the week... yeah I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with that one.
 

normstalls

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But that's a logical fallacy. You can run run run when you are ahead. If you just run it the first 27 plays of the game just for the sake of running it you may be behind 20-0.
Yeah, that makes sense for sure and I understand what you are saying. I wonder how long the Titans will stick with the run? Hard to do if you are down 2 scores.
 

Joe D Reid

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Well they stuck with the run down 21-3 in KC and it paid off.
That second half is the source of whatever nervousness one could feel about this game. TEN did a good job limiting the number of drives KC had and the roulette-wheel-o-life had KC come up empty on those limited drives. And more fundamentally, TEN has better odds of winning this game than they did of coming back from 18 down in the second half last week. Stuff happens.

Pats will win by 17, though.
 

dcmissle

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I have great sympathy for Eisen, a level headed guy far removed from a troll.

Wild card weekend sucked. This week we're looking at two likely mismatches. The attractiveness of Philly/Atl is greatly diminished by the injury to Wentz. That leaves us with one game to get really excited about out of the first eight.

This comes on the heels of a season marred by Trump/anthem nonsense and a debilitating string of injuries that sidelined stars and took out two likely playoff teams.

This is s bad as I can recall. Eisen has his work cut out for him.