If you're ok with Ferentz and Wynn as depth, fine. I have ptsd from junk OL depth on this team.
Patriots' Priorities for the 2023 Season
- Thread starter bsj
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I think some of it was limited options, at the time. Josh left, took some staff talent with him, and there weren't that many great external options, I guess. He wasn't going to poach BOB from Saban, etc. Still, I think a better plan should've been in place, since Josh has been a perennial HC candidate for several years now. But it may have been more like, maybe we can piece this together for a year, until other, better, options become available. We of course will never get a full explanation from him.
My other crazy idea: should they consider moving Marcus Jones full-time to offense as the new slot receiver?
Dude, Patricia was the O Line coach for 1 season, 17 years ago. He was surrounded by Josh McD, Brian Daboll, Brian Flores, etc. He was then moved to the defensive side of the ball, and has never been an offensive coach since. It was a disaster to hand him the O Line this year, and it was even worse that it was compounded by making him the OC and play caller. He was in over his head from day one.
The offense got better as the season went on is the definition of damning with faint praise. They went from all world shitty to just shitty.
How many guys that spend a decade and a half on one side of the ball are then handed the keys to basically the entire operation on the other side of the ball? Has it ever happened before? My guess is no, because it's insane. I mean, under your theory, Troy Brown, who was our receiver's coach this year, should be able to get a job as a defensive coordinator tomorrow. I mean, it's just teaching, and as a wide receiver, he has to know what the defense is doing.
Right. This may or may not be correct thinking but it's pretty obviously BB's thinking. Plus there are pieces we don't know (like maybe Billy Yates had more of his confidence than we think, so Patricia wasn't going to be doing the technical o-line coaching as much).
As a point of order, the burden for arguing an outlandish theory like Bill suppressing staff salaries because he gets a cut of the savings against a coaching staff budget should be on the person pushing that theory. Others should not have to disprove it, as it isn’t the only possible theory and, for that matter, is among the more outlandish theories you could push.
I know this isn’t a college seminar we are running here, but come on.
I know this isn’t a college seminar we are running here, but come on.
I think Wynn is almost certainly gone, but if he somehow is back as depth on a backup's salary then yeah I'd be perfectly ok with that. But if guard in on your list because they need depth then fine, I'm sure they'll sign someone, but there are still about 10-15 other positions that should be on their priority list ahead of backup guard
A little, maybe, but I completely agree. The guy clearly has good hands, is incredibly quick (can't find any 3-cone times), and as we've seen can be very elusive. I have trust in BB/team to find another cornerback. People talk about getting Mac someone with game-changing speed - he's already on the roster.
Might add someone, but they also have the 2 other rookies.. Hines and Steuber who both spent the season on IR. If they like them that's some more depth
No. He doesn't really run routes, and that's really important at the NFL level. I think he's going to end up as a slot corner, return man and gadget play/decoy long term. maybe line up in the backfield occasionally, etc. Slot WRs in the NFL have to be able to run routes or you're just asking for miscommunication picks galore. He's a good slot corner with real potential against certain matchups, if you move him to WR I don't see the upside to be a really good one, he'd just be a gadget guy playing more downs.
I can’t think of a DB, regardless of athletic traits, who has successfully converted to WR at the NFL level. Guys like Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson got snaps at receiver, but they were used in specific packages and for specific routes; they weren’t running a full route tree. And slot receiver is a pretty demanding position in the Pats offense in terms of the sight adjustments and reads the player needs to make, not to mention that more universal things like route depth, timing, and catching have to be pretty high level. I can’t imagine Jones has the hands to even entertain trying a full position conversion….otherwise he’d have been playing receiver instead of DB for years.
I think the current and next draft.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/11/10/nfl-minority-coach-general-manager-hiring-proposal-approved/6234064002/
It would be nice if they could get the o-line depth chart going like it working for most of the dynasty where every time an interior offensive lineman leaves or retires a new one takes his place--Neal replacing Andruzzi, Connolly replaces Koppen, Wendell replaces Connolly when Connolly moves to guard, etc. I'll bet they do want to increase the depth but it's hard from the outside to know how high a priority it is without knowing how promising Kody Russey, Chasen Himers and Stuber (and even Bill Murray or Hayden Howerton) are.
I'm pretty sure he hasn't taken an offensive snap where he ran an actual route, so we have no idea if he even has a basic understanding of how to be a real receiver. All he's done is go in motion for an end around option or set up for a WR screen, which is useful (it may have helped Parker get open on the touchdown yesterday), but they can't do that every play.
I know we don't have much appetite for "learning on the job", but I thought Patricia drastically improved during the season to the point that I think I'm ok with him next season. I'd like to see them hire an OL coach and find a role for Judge, but continuity is really crucial in the NFL.
Cam Achord, on the other hand, should be let go. That unit was a mess all year and continued to get worse as the season wore on.
Cam Achord, on the other hand, should be let go. That unit was a mess all year and continued to get worse as the season wore on.
I agree he got a lot better, and I thought he handled the Zappe games well. I also think you probably eat the transition and go with someone who is more proven in terms of scheme, while he improved his scheme was still vanilla, he's just not a creative offensive mind to me.
Announcing myself as old, but Roy Green from Cardinals in the early 80’s is the only one can think of.
The Pats have had a tons of attrition from their assistant coaching ranks over the past few years: Flores, Judge, McDaniels all left and brought some Pats assistants with them. Fears and Scar and Pink Stripes retired. So Bill was starting with a core of very junior level assistants, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Both Patricia and Judge were familiar with how things work in Foxboro and had head coaching experience. Patricia actually started as an offensive assistant (he was OL in college, albeit D3), and was already on staff.
You can argue that despite those factors, Bill's decision to hire them into their current roles was incorrect. However, I have seen few reasonable alternatives proposed by the critics. And the decision to hire them had nothing to do with salaries.
With the caveat that I have zero insight on how Steve is viewed by Patriots' players, I'm wondering if he's setting up as the next-in-line for NE HC. Bill went from linebackers coach to DC with the Giants at age 33, then HC with the Browns at age 39. Steve's gone from safeties to linebackers' coach to quasi-DC and he's now age 35. If Bill's stepping down after getting the all-time wins record, it'll take 3 years or so - around the time Steve will be 38 and have over a decade experiencing coaching in the NFL. FWIW Kyle Shanahan took over as an HC at age 38 after a decade-plus of NFL experience, and we know BB's regard for that family (he and Mike are the same age!) and it might be a convenient measuring stick for him. IDK, the timing seems right if Bill's looking to get out in three years and if Steve has the right stuff - or even if he doesn't. At some point down the road, it might not matter to another franchise if he's right for it or not if they want to be able to point at a Belichick as HC bad enough. SB's age/experience seems to line up with BB's timeline as well as the coaching age/progression in Bill's world. Just a thought I hadn't seen mentioned here.
edit: clarity
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Unless Bill can somehow put together a run in his final years and win another Super Bowl, I think his retirement will be seen as ownership as an opportunity to go a completely different direction with the next HC. I'm especially sure they wouldn't want Steve Belichick trying to immediately fill his father's shoes, sounds like a recipe for disaster for all parties involved.
View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1612320494837022721?s=20&t=zt-Snjgi3ck7EVJvUKQn_g
HT @RedOctober3829
I looked back...
Here is their ST DVOA standout years. Number 1 bolded
Top 1-5 in: 2020, 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2002
Top 6-10 in: 2016, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2001, 2000
View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1612468992026763264?s=20&t=zt-Snjgi3ck7EVJvUKQn_g
Here is a little refresher on DVOA for ST:
This page lists an estimate of how many points, compared to league average, each team receives from the five elements of special teams: field goals/extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, punt returns. The total is then converted into a DVOA percentage so that it can be added in to offense and defense to create total team DVOA.
Field goal rating compares each field goal to the league-average percentage of field goals from that distance. Yards of field position from the other four elements of special teams are translated into points using a method that gives each yard line a point value based on the average next score an NFL offense is worth from that point on the field. Kickoffs and punts are based on net yardage. Kickoff returns and punt returns are judged on return yardage only. These numbers are then adjusted for weather and altitude based on stadium type (cold, warm, dome, Denver) and week. The system is explained here. Two-point conversions and onside kicks are not included.
The final six columns represent elements not found in the standard special teams ratings.
HT @RedOctober3829
I looked back...
Here is their ST DVOA standout years. Number 1 bolded
Top 1-5 in: 2020, 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2002
Top 6-10 in: 2016, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2001, 2000
View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1612468992026763264?s=20&t=zt-Snjgi3ck7EVJvUKQn_g
Here is a little refresher on DVOA for ST:
This page lists an estimate of how many points, compared to league average, each team receives from the five elements of special teams: field goals/extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, punt returns. The total is then converted into a DVOA percentage so that it can be added in to offense and defense to create total team DVOA.
Field goal rating compares each field goal to the league-average percentage of field goals from that distance. Yards of field position from the other four elements of special teams are translated into points using a method that gives each yard line a point value based on the average next score an NFL offense is worth from that point on the field. Kickoffs and punts are based on net yardage. Kickoff returns and punt returns are judged on return yardage only. These numbers are then adjusted for weather and altitude based on stadium type (cold, warm, dome, Denver) and week. The system is explained here. Two-point conversions and onside kicks are not included.
The final six columns represent elements not found in the standard special teams ratings.
- HIDDEN represents the advantage teams have received from elements of special teams generally out of their control: opposing field goals, kickoff distance, and punt distance. It is listed as points worth of estimated field position, and is ranked from the team with the biggest advantage to the team with the biggest disadvantage.
- WEATHER represents the estimated effect of weather, altitude, and domes on each team's special teams performance. It is listed as points worth of estimated field position, and is ranked from the team with the biggest advantage to the team with the biggest disadvantage.
- UNADJUSTED VOA shows special teams DVOA without the adjustments for weather and altitude.
It almost certainly won't happen, but I'd do it. Jones is too good with the ball in his hands, too fast, too electric to waste on defense. He seems to have very good hands and runs with great vision. His quicks and balance make him difficult to tackle. Dana Holgorsen, his head coach at Houston, said he had a better offensive skill set than either Wes Welker or Danny Amendola, both of whom he coached at Texas Tech. Troy Brown says Jones been working on his routes and, according to this article, he's a film junkie and smart as shit.
His size will always be a problem on defense. Yes, this is mitigated by putting him in the slot. But 5'8" and 185 lbs. will always be a mismatch waiting to happen, and, well, NFL slot WRs are getting taller and taller. If you watch his highlights from Houston, you'll see he's not just a gimmick on offense. So, hell yeah, I'd do it. But I'm an aggressive gambler. Mr. Vegas.
It is indeed correct that all the other active offensive coordinators in the NFL have had more experience coaching the offense than a single season coaching the OL. Most had a couple of seasons at least coaching the skill positions (WR, TE, or RB), or had OC positions at the NCAA level. Some were low-level defensive or ST assistants early in their career, so switching sides of the ball is not unique to Belichick. But agree that the Patricia assignment (he was already on the team's coaching staff so not technically "hired" to be OC) is unique in terms of the amount of prior experience on the offensive side of the ball.
However, I'm not convinced Bill had better options this past offseason. The team could hire hire any existing NFL coordinators to the role. So he would need to hire a junior-level assistant, and then train him on how things work in Foxboro. That would also be unusual; nearly all current offensive coordinators were either promoted from a lower level role on their existing team or were brought over by the new head coach. Available past assistants under Belichick are few and far between. Fears and Scar retired. Bill O'Brien was not available. Brian Daboll took a job as head coach. I guess he could have taken a chance on a taking someone from a fired staff. But, Joe Judge's assistants last season were Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens; would they be better than Patricia? Maybe he could have taken a run at George Godsey after he was let go, but IIRC he clashed with Flores. Studesville got a promotion.
Other OC's that were fired when their head coaches were let go: Tim Kelly (Houston), Bill Lazor (Bears), Shurmer (Broncos), Kubiak (Vikings OC for a single season), or Greg Olsen (Raiders). One interesting name among such a list was Darrell Bevell, OC for Jacksonville under Urban Meyer. He was also OC for the Lions under Patricia, and was Seattle's OC for a good portion of the Russell Wilson era. Unknown if Bevell or the others were ever under consideration.
Anyway, I think those expecting a complete tear down and rebuild of the coaching staff are going to be disappointed. Perhaps Patricia will be given a more experienced assistant to help him out and offload some tasks. Maybe a dedicated QB coach or passing game coordinator will be brought in.
The underlying assumption here is that BB can only work with someone who "knows how things work in Foxboro." That's ridiculous. There are a ton of good offensive minds around the league and even in the college ranks who have actual experience running offenses, calling plays, designing plays, etc. The problem is BB isn't bringing outside guys with fresh ideas into the coaching fold at this point in his career, so he's left with no choice but to bring back his retreads and put them in positions they have no business being in. I think this is a huge flaw in the way the Pats operate. Eventually, someone will need to take over the whole thing and I'm worried Kraft will be pressured by BB not to look outside.
I've thought about this and I think there is a real difference in skills needed to be a position coach vs a coordinator. There is much more management of a staff involved. However, if Troy Brown was a good WR coach I see no reason why he couldn't be a good DB coach tomorrow. Here's how a DB will try to get leverage on you and here's how to get leverage on them -> Here's how a WR will try to get leverage on you and here's how to get leverage on them.
I get what you’re saying, it’s the accepted wisdom. I’d hate for them to pass on a good coach though (assuming SB is a good coach) because of worries about footstep following. Jonathan Kraft’s relationship to SB will likely determine if this would go anywhere, so it’d be interesting to learn if they get along at all. It’s funny, as we’ve seen with all of BB’s coaching tree, the last thing a successor should try is to ape Bill Belichick’s manner - and that’s just as true even if the successor is named Belichick.
Devin Hester? He wasn't a home run as a receiver but had a few decent years in there. I don't think he ever played as much on D as Jones did this past year though.
Josh McDaniels in 2005 was pretty similar FWIW - he'd been a defensive assistant, than one year as QB coach, then he was de facto OC.
I wonder if they gave any consideration to promoting Caley or Mick Lombardi. Those would have been more traditional choices; whether they would have been better, I dunno. Lombardi took a job with a better title (he's OC in Vegas and probably wouldn't have been here) but he doesn't get to call plays. I could believe that they wanted to keep him but he left anyway; I could believe that they wanted to push the reset button on the O a bit and were fine with losing him.
It's not an "at this point in his career." This is the way they have always done things. It has been largely extremely successful for two decades. The last 3-4 years on offense have been rough, and there will undoubtedly need to be changes / adjustments. But they have built an entire infrastructure of scouting, coaching, installation, player development, gameplanning, etc. and they are not just going to hire any ol' OC; they need one who can work within the infrastructure. One of their major competitive advantages has been alignment throughout the organization and keeping that intact is IMO (and more importantly, in Belichick's opinion) critically important.
And it is highly likely that had the Pats played the Lions later in the season, they would have lost that game.
Don't guys like Jones usually move to DB somewhere along the line because they had problems sticking at WR?
I know that most of the board hates Patricia and Judge--and (bizarrely) hated Patricia when he was the defensive coordinator or de facto defensive coordinator for multiple superbowl winning teams with very good defenses--but the idea of Judge and Patricia as "retreads" is just bizarre. They were highly regarded head coaching candidates known for their high football IQs;Judge got a five year 25 million dollar or so contact when he was in his late 30s to coach the Giants. These are highly talented individuals who left for incredible opportunities. If two topic executives at Apple left for a couple of years to be CEOs at lesser firms and then were hired back after rough runs as CEO you wouldn't (or I wouldn't at least) think that Apple was hiring dopes--I would assume they knew exactly what they were getting and they were getting really smart guys who'd excelled their first go-around.
If the Senior VP of Finance and the Senior VP of Operations at Apple left for a couple of years to be CEOs at other firms and Apple brought them back not at their original spots, but to head Engineering and Marketing respectively, there probably would be some chatter and doubt over it.
What are you guys talking about? People switch roles all the time in business and go on to manage multiple lines of business in a career, generally on their way to more senior roles. This goes back to the points earlier, are they teaching techniques or are they managing a group of people/determining strategy etc?
How often are changes in OC rewarded with amazing first years? How about when a QB is hurt for a few games, an O-Line turns over game to game?
I'm not defending Patricia, but I do trust BB's view on coaching far more than is given credit in these threads.
How often are changes in OC rewarded with amazing first years? How about when a QB is hurt for a few games, an O-Line turns over game to game?
I'm not defending Patricia, but I do trust BB's view on coaching far more than is given credit in these threads.
Many major corporations switch executives from department to department all the time, (Exxon comes to mind; Apple not so much, it was just the first big company that came to mind, but if you want to hear about a company hiring a retread and having it work out....). In other fields people don't switch--you don't see a hand surgeon becoming a brain surgeon very often. It really depends on whether you think the job of offensive coordinator is so specialized that someone who has been both a defensive coordinator and a head coach doesn't have the requisite knowledge base to handle the techniques, etc that matter in the new job).
[I suspect that OL coach is actually the hardest job to transition into on an NFL coaching staff because of the amount of fairly subtle technique work you need to master, although interestingly Dante had coached OL in college in the 70s and then was essentially a special teams and TE coach in the pros for 20 years before becoming the OL guru).
Marcus Jones is already far more accomplished as a a defensive player than Hester ever was.
I just can't believe we're still dying on the "no problem in having the offense coached by Judge and Patricia" hill after watching 17 games of that side of the ball. You guys can carry on. If your TV set didn't make a good enough argument, I'm not sure anyone will.
Literally no one is saying that. We're just trying to get beyond the absolutely inane talk about there being no conceivable explanation, that it must have been done to line BB's pockets, that it's obvious coaching malpracitce, etc.
Was the offense good enough this year? Of course not. Would Josh McDaniels have been better? YES. Would gettable candidates--say Adam Gaze or Mick Lombardi--have been a better fit for both 2022 and the team going forward? I'm not so sure.
Am I crazy, or didn't we hear last spring that, given all the staff defections when Josh left, that Bill prioritized future continuity in having Patricia and Judge coach the O? I could've sworn that was a major part of his reasoning. Basically, Matty P and Joe aren't going anywhere for a while, given their high-profile HC disasters, so Mac and the O will have consistency in coaching for a few years.
Regardless, the offense sucked out loud all year. Near the bottom of the league in almost every way one can measure it. They desperately need a real OC, real OL coach and real QB coach.
And FWIW, I saw a similar hire as Patricia 20+ years ago at my alma mater. Syracuse (back when we were actually very good at football) had an OC named George DeLeone who pioneered the freeze option offense with Don McPherson, Marvin Graves and Donovan McNabb. He left to become an OL coach for the chargers, then came back a year later in 1998 as our DC. He suuuuuuucked as DC, and the D was terrible. He got moved back to OC the next year, we hired an actual DC, and that unit improved dramatically. So that's been my frame of reference for this Patricia catastrophe.
Regardless, the offense sucked out loud all year. Near the bottom of the league in almost every way one can measure it. They desperately need a real OC, real OL coach and real QB coach.
And FWIW, I saw a similar hire as Patricia 20+ years ago at my alma mater. Syracuse (back when we were actually very good at football) had an OC named George DeLeone who pioneered the freeze option offense with Don McPherson, Marvin Graves and Donovan McNabb. He left to become an OL coach for the chargers, then came back a year later in 1998 as our DC. He suuuuuuucked as DC, and the D was terrible. He got moved back to OC the next year, we hired an actual DC, and that unit improved dramatically. So that's been my frame of reference for this Patricia catastrophe.
Man the freeze option was SUCH a good offense. I actually think it would work in today's NFL with the right QB.
What I saw from the TV set were below average receivers and tight ends unable to get open, below average offensive linemen getting beat by their defensive counterparts, and a young QB struggling with consistency in multiple areas. Maybe it was coaching; maybe it was talent; probably was a little bit of both.
RE: the bolded. For me, the biggest issue was that they has two people doing those three jobs. What's worse is that both of those two people were doing those jobs, essentially, for the first time. I think if they had had MP as OC, JJ at QB, and Scar at OL, then they might have been fine. Or JMcD at OC, MP at OL and JJ at QB, probably fine also.
But for an organization that has made "DO YOUR JOB" a mantra, it seemed wildly inappropriate, from Day ONE, to expect 2 guys to do the work of 3.
Particularly given the circumstances. A 2nd year QB with noted mechanics issues, an offense without the OC that had been there for 10 straight years, and an OL with 2 tackles switching sides and a rookie G. That screams out for experienced, competent coaching. Bill blew it. Even the greatest make mistakes.
At the time, I hated the judge/Patricia hires because, obviously, they did not seem to have much experience on the offense. But moreover, it seemed a lot like bb was doing a solid to some friends and hoping to increase their profile for future gigs. That... is not what I want from a head coach. I want a coaching staff interested in winning games, not padding friends' resumes.
I am seeing on the board some talk of keeping those two for continuity. That is crazy to me for 2 reasons. First, if it wasn't working, I am not sure why you would want *that* consistency. Just because the team is going to run the same system for 3 years doesn't mean the system works. Nothing I saw this year makes me think the system works. Second, bb seems to throw people in the doghouse for looking at their notepads funny, but he let those two muck up the offense with no adjustments for a whole season? I get not doing a wholesale change, but man, that was just odd.
Finally, re: the analogy of execs, I would like to add that when the head of sales gets moved to head of marketing, it's typically so they can gain exposure, ie talk about that department competently after a few months. Rarely are they getting involved in nuts and bolts. They are more akin to project managers who run teams of programmers, but have no idea how to code themselves. Football is different- ostensibly to be the oc, you have to understand the principles of how the offense works and implement it. I don't think Patricia was bad as a DC, but certainly it seemed like oc was not in his skill set. He couldn't just be there to talk about routes competently - he had to own the whole offensive side of the ball and he couldnt.
I am seeing on the board some talk of keeping those two for continuity. That is crazy to me for 2 reasons. First, if it wasn't working, I am not sure why you would want *that* consistency. Just because the team is going to run the same system for 3 years doesn't mean the system works. Nothing I saw this year makes me think the system works. Second, bb seems to throw people in the doghouse for looking at their notepads funny, but he let those two muck up the offense with no adjustments for a whole season? I get not doing a wholesale change, but man, that was just odd.
Finally, re: the analogy of execs, I would like to add that when the head of sales gets moved to head of marketing, it's typically so they can gain exposure, ie talk about that department competently after a few months. Rarely are they getting involved in nuts and bolts. They are more akin to project managers who run teams of programmers, but have no idea how to code themselves. Football is different- ostensibly to be the oc, you have to understand the principles of how the offense works and implement it. I don't think Patricia was bad as a DC, but certainly it seemed like oc was not in his skill set. He couldn't just be there to talk about routes competently - he had to own the whole offensive side of the ball and he couldnt.
Agreed. He's made mistakes before, but part of the reason he has been so successful is he makes the necessary adjustments. I for one am hoping he sees what wasn't working and makes the necessary adjustments with regards to his staff.
I don't know enough about how professional coaching works versus corporate executive development so I defer to your familiarity with how they differ.
That said, you don't need to convince anyone here that BB's coaching hires aren't optimal. Not because we all agree but because nobody here can do anything about it. If BB decides to run it back next year, we have to accept it.
Finally, as has been noted time and again in these threads by many posters, there were so many problems with this year's team that pinning it on one thing feels foolish and not a good faith exercise. Was the coaching bad or was it the personnel? If the OL is better, can they do more on offense? Or was the biggest issue the lack of skill players on offense? Or was it that Mac is limited on what he can do and that exposed issues that a more talented QB might cover up? How badly did their ST issues impact their results overall?
BB definitely deserves criticism for all of the above and you have to think he will address these issues. The problem for everyone here is - and we all know this by now - he will do it his way. Maybe that means he runs it back with Patricia and Judge.