Patriots Playoff Fear Factor

[mauf]

The Chiefs are the only team to embarrass the Pats in the past three years, and they were a formidable playoff opponent last year, even if the Pats were clearly the better team. Good that there's no chance of playing them in KC.

It's unknown how these Raiders would match up with the Pats, but there's a general sense (borne out by their record in close games) that the Raiders aren't quite as good as their record. Obviously, they're a good team -- any given Sunday, they've got a fighting chance to beat the Patriots. And they're the only team the Pats could potentially face on the road, which would clearly be the worst-case matchup. But if the game will be in Foxborough either way, I'd rather see the Pats play the Raiders than the Chiefs.

Not sure why any of you are scared of the Steelers. They likely won't make the playoffs if they don't beat Baltimore on Christmas, and if they do they're hardly a lock to beat Miami or Denver, even at Heinz. They'll be a distinct underdog in the Divisional Round, if they get that far. I guess we'd be a less desirable opponent than the Dolphins or Broncos, so there's that.

 

[amarshal2]

The Chiefs are the only team to embarrass the Pats in the past three years, and they were a formidable playoff opponent last year, even if the Pats were clearly the better team. Good that there's no chance of playing them in KC.

It's unknown how these Raiders would match up with the Pats, but there's a general sense (borne out by their record in close games) that the Raiders aren't quite as good as their record. Obviously, they're a good team -- any given Sunday, they've got a fighting chance to beat the Patriots. And they're the only team the Pats could potentially face on the road, which would clearly be the worst-case matchup. But if the game will be in Foxborough either way, I'd rather see the Pats play the Raiders than the Chiefs.

Not sure why any of you are scared of the Steelers. They likely won't make the playoffs if they don't beat Baltimore on Christmas, and if they do they're hardly a lock to beat Miami or Denver, even at Heinz. They'll be a distinct underdog in the Divisional Round, if they get that far. I guess we'd be a less desirable opponent than the Dolphins or Broncos, so there's that.

Pitt is nearly a lock to make it
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/
And they have been wildly inconsistent.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2016/week-15-dvoa-ratings
On a normal day most teams can't beat the Pats. The Steelers on a good day could easily win.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Which AFC team(s) do you fear more than the Pats in the playoffs?

Irrationally, the Chiefs because of that stupid game in the Georgia Dome a few weeks ago; slightly less irrationally, the Steelers because they're balanced and probably have the highest ceiling, and because mystique and aura. In truth, I'm less worried about an AFC teams than I am about several NFC teams - I'd rather not play the Seahawks, Packers, Giants or Cowboys (probably in that order) than any AFC team. Much of that is irrational, down to bad memories of previous games against them, but even in a vacuum, I'd probably bet right now on an NFC team winning the Super Bowl.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Good, but I believe the answer we were looking for is...

That's who Hogan's talking about. The first thing I remembered about Mulligan is that Hulk Hogan made that video to him. The other thing I remember is that he suuuuucccked. He did catch a TD from Brady, though, so he's on that list of 67 people or whatever it is now.

The Chiefs are the only team to embarrass the Pats in the past three years, and they were a formidable playoff opponent last year, even if the Pats were clearly the better team. Good that there's no chance of playing them in KC.

I'm far more scared of teams that can put up 30+ than teams with elite defenses and poor offenses. I trust the Pats to limit Hill on Special Teams, and nothing about Reid's/Smith's run-run-pass, dink and dunk offense scares me at all. It might be a grind, but I expect the Pats would win comfortably.

 

[Super Nomario]

I'm far more scared of teams that can put up 30+ than teams with elite defenses and poor offenses. I trust the Pats to limit Hill on Special Teams, and nothing about Reid's/Smith's run-run-pass, dink and dunk offense scares me at all. It might be a grind, but I expect the Pats would win comfortably.

But almost every Pats playoff loss in the B/B era has been to a good defense that limited them to relatively few points (usually partially in conjunction with a ball-control offense). How many 35-31 shootouts have they lost? Just the 2006 AFCCG, really.

FWIW I'm not sure I'm sold on KC's defense either - too dependent on turnovers.

 

[eustis22]

Andy Reid is not going to beat BB.

 

[bernardsamuel]

In theory at least, my greatest "fear team" would be (ready for this?) Buffalo, because there would be so many "miracles" having taken place already for such a match-up to happen that people would be talking about the Bills as the "team of destiny" which would cause me to choke (though hopefully not cause the Patriots the same reaction, Heaven forfend).

More practically, I hope that the Ravens are eliminated even before the playoffs begin, mostly due to history, plus the Harbaugh whining after they would lose to us would bore me already. I'm not really worried about facing the Broncos at Foxboro, nor the Chiefs for that matter. I think that the Raiders will hit "the playoff wall" early. The Dolphins people among us are such "good people" that I seriously wish them well, unless and until they would face us (by the same token, when I see the gift of j-man's presence to this board, my utter disdain for the Broncos, especially as the second 33 years of my life were lived in Denver, tends to mostly melt away).

Regarding the Super Bowl if we should be so competent/fortunate/blessed, I absolutely don't want to see the Giants again, as I had enough in 2012 of hardly being able to wait for revenge - and then there was none. I'd sort of like to do unto Seattle what the Giants did unto us, and frankly I have some fear of the Packers' history of successful Hail Mary's.

 

[Ed Hillel]

But almost every Pats playoff loss in the B/B era has been to a good defense that limited them to relatively few points (usually partially in conjunction with a ball-control offense). How many 35-31 shootouts have they lost? Just the 2006 AFCCG, really.

FWIW I'm not sure I'm sold on KC's defense either - too dependent on turnovers.

I get what you're saying, but I don't think this is a Pats offense built to score 30+ against playoff teams, which is why teams that can score scare me. Brady and the Special Teams are usually excellent at ball control and the D has been much better of late, so I'm more comfortable with grinders than I have been in a long time (maybe since 07, not that we had a ton, but that D was excellent). Seattle is capable of both, which is why I'd have them at the top. Pitt and Atlanta scare me because they are capable of making any game a shootout, and this just isn't the year I'd want to do that. Maybe I'm selling the offense, sans Gronk, short.

 

[Super Nomario]

I get what you're saying, but I don't think this is a Pats offense built to score 30+ against playoff teams, which is why teams that can score scare me. Brady and the Special Teams are usually excellent at ball control and the D has been much better of late, so I'm more comfortable with grinders than I have been in a long time (maybe since 07, not that we had a ton, but that D was excellent). Seattle is capable of both, which is why I'd have them at the top. Pitt and Atlanta scare me because they are capable of making any game a shootout, and this just isn't the year I'd want to do that. Maybe I'm selling the offense, sans Gronk, short.

I think it depends on the playoff team. They put up 30 against Baltimore two weeks ago, and they have a better D than Pittsburgh or (especially) Atlanta. They came with a yard of putting up 30 on Seattle, who also has a better D than Pittsburgh or Atlanta.

 

[jimbobim]

hah haven't read the article yet but Price just posted this on weei.... From the SOSH boards to the Bos media

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/football/patriots/christopher-price/2016/12/21/fear-factor-ranking-patriots-potential-

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Holy shit, the Pats last playoff on the road was Martyball's finale in San Diego. Time flies.

An interesting question is whether than 06 Chargers team or the 11 Packers are the best team of the last 15 years to miss the Super Bowl.

The '06 Chargers were an excellent team but they "only" had a 10.2 SRS, which was ironically the same as the '06 Pats. They did lose while badly outplaying them and choking the game away, but that's for another day. The '11 Packers were at 11.4 - excellent, but still just tied with the Saints that year. The '04 Steelers were 15-1, but they only had a 9.0 SRS and the betting market didn't buy it as the Pats were three-point favorites on the road in the AFCCG. The '10 Pats had a 15.4 SRS - that's the highest in that time period besides '07.

Besides the '07 Pats, the '10 Pats have the highest SRS since the '91 Redskins, who are probably the best champion in the Super Bowl era. The '96 Packers and '98 Vikings were really close and might be higher after adjusting for era since offense was higher in 2010.

 

[C4CRVT]

hah haven't read the article yet but Price just posted this on weei.... From the SOSH boards to the Bos media

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/football/patriots/christopher-price/2016/12/21/fear-factor-ranking-patriots-potential-

I saw that too. At least change the title fella.

 

[patinorange]

I'm rooting for the Giants to miss the playoffs. I don't even want to think about the possibility of Eli Manning against the Patriots. Yea, yea...they suck. They sucked in 2011 and weren't in the same class as the 2007 Patriots. Three wins against Brady and BB in the Super Bowl is Eli's direct ticket to the HOF and a big mark against the legacy of the dynasty. No thanks.

I am more concerned with the Falcons going against this secondary than I am with the Cowboys. Bill will shut down Elliot and make the kid beat him. (Which I don't discount as a solid possibility) Ryan could shred this defense if the coach is smart enough to just throw, and Ryan doesn't make mistakes. ( a big if)

I am fairly confident about the AFC path to the Super Bowl. I think a great game by Ben is the only possible obstacle.

 

[wilked]

Bring on the Coughlin-less Giants. I think he was a huge reason for their success

 

[wilked]

Also, I agree that the Steelers are the team I fear most.

Pats will beat Oakland. They are a good team but not yet 'ready'.
Bal/ Den already been shown to be inferior
KC doesn't have the offense

NFC, I think the Cowboys are the real deal. Other than them I am not too worried

 

[Reverend]

Is the Michael Floyd thread comment a Mulligan?

Maybe. What's the differene between a Mulligan and Strike 1?

He should also know that I received fan mail for that warning. Shit like this needs to stop.

Good, but I believe the answer we were looking for is...

Speaking of, we would appreciate it if, in an attempt to be funny in correcting someone, you actually watch or read or whatever the link posted.

There are plenty of ways to still be funny in agreement. Screaming out in class, "I didn't do the reading but I think I have a funny" is way below the bar we try to cultivate here.

But almost every Pats playoff loss in the B/B era has been to a good defense that limited them to relatively few points (usually partially in conjunction with a ball-control offense). How many 35-31 shootouts have they lost? Just the 2006 AFCCG, really.

FWIW I'm not sure I'm sold on KC's defense either - too dependent on turnovers.

This is where my thinking has come to be. It's easy to fall into the notion that, especially when you watch your team regularly, the other guys have to find a way to beat you at your game.

No. More often then not, you beat an excellent team by disrupting their game. That's why those "weird" losses everyone talks about shouldn't be considered weird... but that's why they are so considered: people don't grasp this key point, yeah?

Good call, SN.

I saw that too. At least change the title fella.

At this point, I would assume that they assume that any of their readers who recognize a cribbed title take it as a signal of likely higher quality content, yes?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Anyone scared of the Giants after seeing this game tonight?

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Eh. Thursday night division road games are shit.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Giants offense is worse than any of those SB teams. They are honestly probably one of the better match ups for the Patriots. But they aren't going to make it through the NFC anyway.

 

[mulluysavage]

TNF game was confusing from a Fear Factor perspective. Giants win = biggest irrational anxiety makes the tournament. Eagles win = Dallas, biggest rational monster, gets #1 seed.

I was rooting for the Giants. Hmmm.

 

[ilol@u]

The Giants.

Last thing I want is having Sterling Shepard join David Tyree and Mario Manningham with a ridiculous game changing catch.

 

[tims4wins]

Not sure if this is rational, but if Dallas makes it to the Super Bowl - in Houston - it is likely to be at least 70-80% Cowboys fans. So a near home game. That does scare me a bit.

Then again, Pats are 7-0 on the road.

 

[loshjott]

If the Cowboys make the Super Bowl and it's played in Boston it will be 70-80% Cowboy fans.

 

[dcmissle]

Anyone scared of the Giants after seeing this game tonight?

I wouldn't place too much weight on any one game. They've had a good run. There is a plausible scenario where they are a giant headache -- (I) they hassle Brady; (II) Pats have no answer to the collection of Beckham, Cruz, Shepard.

Do I think it will happen? No. I think they are too one-dimensional on offense and probably will not reach the SB. Could it happen? Obviously.

It's a year of relative mediocrity. FOs has had an interesting take on this, esp with regard to DVOA of leading teams this late in the season -- short version: it's underwhelming.

So although I think that 538 is probably on point in its SB odds, the Pats are still at only 30%. Multiples better than other teams - but 7 out of 10 times, they lose.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Not sure if this is rational, but if Dallas makes it to the Super Bowl - in Houston - it is likely to be at least 70-80% Cowboys fans. So a near home game. That does scare me a bit.

Then again, Pats are 7-0 on the road.

Eh, SB 49 was 80% Seahawks fans.

 

[jsinger121]

Here's the scenario for the Giants to still miss the playoffs.

Lose to the Redskins next week on the road
Green Bay wins out
Tampa Bay wins out
Detroit goes 1-1 (win at Dallas)

 

[TFisNEXT]

Here's the scenario for the Giants to still miss the playoffs.

Lose to the Redskins next week on the road
Green Bay wins out
Tampa Bay wins out
Detroit goes 1-1 (win at Dallas)

The hardest part of that puzzle is probably getting TB to win on the road at New Orleans this week. Otherwise, all those other games might be favored individually to happen if you maybe give Detroit's chances this week a bit of a boost with Dallas having already clinched. If Dallas plays their starters though for 3+ quarters (and aren't sleep walking), then Detroit might get blown out.

GB hosts MIN this week, so that's def advantage GB.
TB hosts Carolina in week 17...advantage TB, though Carolina is playing a bit better recently.
Detroit hosts GB week 17...would be easier for DET to lost if it was a road game, but Aaron Rodgers' resurgence against that defense might have GB favored.

Still a low probability all that works out, but it would be pretty hilarious.

 

[Bosoxen]

Here's the scenario for the Giants to still miss the playoffs.

Lose to the Redskins next week on the road
Green Bay wins out
Tampa Bay wins out
Detroit goes 1-1 (win at Dallas)

Atlanta needs to win out too.

Here's the full scenario:

This week

1. The Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday.

2. The Atlanta Falcons win at the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.

3. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers win at the New Orleans Saints on Saturday.

4. The Detroit Lions win at the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.

Next week

5. The Giants lose to the Washington Redskins.

6. The Packers win at Detroit.

7. The Falcons beat the Saints.

8. The Buccaneers beat the Panthers.

It's a long shot but it is pretty plausible.

 

[Toe Nash]

Eh, SB 49 was 80% Seahawks fans.

I could be wrong, but I think at the Super Bowl there are enough neutral fans and less excited ones, plus enough other distractions, to make the crowd less of an issue as far as noise is concerned. Even if Houston were to (somehow) play it wouldn't be the same as a regular Houston home game.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I could be wrong, but I think at the Super Bowl there are enough neutral fans and less excited ones, plus enough other distractions, to make the crowd less of an issue as far as noise is concerned. Even if Houston were to (somehow) play it wouldn't be the same as a regular Houston home game.

Houston sports fans are like the Atlanta of Texas so it probably would!

 

[loshjott]

I think if the Cowboys make the SB there will be so much pent up demand among their fans that they'll dominate in numbers and rowdiness.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Houston sports fans are like the Atlanta of Texas so it probably would!

This hurts my feelings.

 

[dcmissle]

Here's the scenario for the Giants to still miss the playoffs.

Lose to the Redskins next week on the road
Green Bay wins out
Tampa Bay wins out
Detroit goes 1-1 (win at Dallas)

They had a much more plausible path to win the NFC East. That makes last night sting all the more.

 

[Stitch01]

I wouldn't place too much weight on any one game. They've had a good run. There is a plausible scenario where they are a giant headache -- (I) they hassle Brady; (II) Pats have no answer to the collection of Beckham, Cruz, Shepard.

Do I think it will happen? No. I think they are too one-dimensional on offense and probably will not reach the SB. Could it happen? Obviously.

It's a year of relative mediocrity. FOs has had an interesting take on this, esp with regard to DVOA of leading teams this late in the season -- short version: it's underwhelming.

So although I think that 538 is probably on point in its SB odds, the Pats are still at only 30%. Multiples better than other teams - but 7 out of 10 times, they lose.

Theyre not going to win three road games. The Giants record is on the back of going 7-1 at home with like a +30 total point differential.

I wish it weren't so as Id rather play the Giants than any other NFC playoff team/contender except for Detroit, but not gonna happen this time. One-dimensional is a actually a pretty generous description as it implies they have a good passing game when they're an OBJ injury away from becoming the NFC version of Ravensville

 

[RedOctober3829]

Theyre not going to win three road games. The Giants record is on the back of going 7-1 at home with like a +30 total point differential.

I wish it weren't so as Id rather play the Giants than any other NFC playoff team/contender except for Detroit, but not gonna happen this time. One-dimensional is a actually a pretty generous description as it implies they have a good passing game when they're an OBJ injury away from becoming the NFC version of Ravensville

It would actually be easy to defend the Giants. Rush 3-4, drop the rest, and play cover 2.

 

[j-man]

Holy shit, the Pats last playoff on the road was Martyball's finale in San Diego. Time flies.

An interesting question is whether than 06 Chargers team or the 11 Packers are the best team of the last 15 years to miss the Super Bowl.

06 Chargers without a doubt the 11 packers still wouild had beat NYG had the g-man not scored 2 TD in a min in q 2

 

[AB in DC]

The hardest part of that puzzle is probably getting TB to win on the road at New Orleans this week. Otherwise, all those other games might be favored individually to happen if you maybe give Detroit's chances this week a bit of a boost with Dallas having already clinched. If Dallas plays their starters though for 3+ quarters (and aren't sleep walking), then Detroit might get blown out.
.

Depending on Saturday's results (GB win and a few other things) there's a reasonable chance that Det@Dal is virtually meaningless for both teams. NFC North will come down to the GB-Det winner in week 17 -- Detroit only benefits from a MNF win if the final game ends in a tie. I'm wrong -- for some reason I thought Tampa had 9 wins already. Detroit gets a wild card with a win @ Dal if Tampa loses either week 16 or week 17,

 

[j-man]

i think now unlees NE or DAL has a really really bad playoff game that your super bowl 2 teams will meet in SB 51


the fix will be in if NYG Misses the playoffs

i gotta say i hate doing the WWE Stylie things i do but at least 4 times in the last 10 seasons i couild smell it

in 2005 INDY/NE were the best team but due to winning 1 for the BUS and coach spittake Pitt won it when it shouild be Brady/Manning 3 that year Champ Pitt should had been Indy

In 2006 SD and NE Were the 2 best teams by far had M Mccee held on to brady pick there is no worrying about football in SD but it 'was' Manning turn Champ INDY Shouild had been SD

in 2007 Eli was in the grasp it should had been a sack and 4th about 15 which u would have held then no more 72 dolplhs but it was win 1 for Stahand Champ NYG should had been u just to quiet the 72 dolpihs

2008 it was actilly Kurt warner time but he threw the worst pass i ever seen on the goal line had he threw any other way Harrion never runs 108 yards and pitt never wins Champ Pitt should been Zona

2009 Karina that horrible hurricane in LA when it should had been fave manning they let the sains get away with driry hit after diiry hit in the 2 NFC Games Champ NO should been Minn

2010 they wanted GB in to say 'goodbye' to favre Champ GB should had been NE
2011 Evened matched super bowl welker should made that catch with 4 min left but i am sorry to say that 11 pats team had good luck Lee evens dopped a easy td and billy C Shanked a very make-able FG any 1 of those 2 things happened u dont go Balt does and wins Champ NYG should been Balt

2012 should had been Denver but the NFL knew they owed Balt 1 on Balt INT return for a TD in the first q it was DPI and not called and they did not want to make indy owner look too bad if manning won in 12 Champ Balt should been Den

2013 this was denver game but settie just played a perfect game and goddell wanted manning to stay longer Champ Sea Should been SF

2014 it was your time the NFL let this game played out sure carroll should had ran but he outsmarted himself Champ NE Shouild had been Sea u run lynch twice from the 3 and if u dont get u shouild lose to lose

2015 the NFL Wanted P Manning to win at all costs denver was 4 plays from 8-8 in the reg season champ den shouild been NE

2016 its going to be a NE/DAL SB barring A Oak surprise the tealeaves tell me dallas will win this year

 

[Euclis20]

Holy shit, the Pats last playoff on the road was Martyball's finale in San Diego. Time flies.

An interesting question is whether than 06 Chargers team or the 11 Packers are the best team of the last 15 years to miss the Super Bowl.

Late reply here, and it may be obvious because this is a Pats board, but the 2010 Patriots went 14-2 against a tough schedule (Pro-Football reference gives them the 4th toughest schedule in 2010) with a point differential of +205. They had the 3rd best DVOA rating ever, behind just the 91 Redskins and the 07 Pats. They ended the season on an absolute roll, winning 8 straight (5 of those wins against playoff teams), and finished with the best weighted DVOA of all time. Brady was as good as he's ever been, winning the MVP with in retrospect was an incredibly mediocre group of skill positions players (Branch at the end of his career, Gronk and Hernandez as rookies, Welker still recovering from a torn ACL in by far his worst year in NE...)

After the 18-1 team, this was ultimately the most disappointing team of the Brady/Belichick era.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

I spent the last 10 weeks of the 2010 season in a dusty shithole, so I missed that Pats run at the end of the season, the Green Bay playoff run and the game that has kept Rex Ryan employed as a head coach for the last four years. A little research shows you are exactly right that 2010 team might have been BB's second best team.

 

[InstaFace]

Didn't the 2010 team beat every other playoff team, or at least all the other AFC playoff teams, on their regular season rampage?

They sucked in 2011 and weren't in the same class as the 2007 Patriots. Three wins against Brady and BB in the Super Bowl is Eli's direct ticket to the HOF and a big mark against the legacy of the dynasty. No thanks.

You don't think Eli is already headed there, as a 2-time super bowl winner including arguably the greatest upset of all time?

Tom Brady is not a borderline HOF candidate, we shouldn't be measuring others against him.

 

[ifmanis5]

Tyreek Hill is scary.

 

[kenneycb]

On and off the field.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Tyreek Hill is scary.

Yes.

I think he's guy Pats would take away Marshall Faulk style, though. If they can drive with Ware, Kelce, etc and win...so be it.

 

[amarshal2]

Yes.

I think he's guy Pats would take away Marshall Faulk style, though. If they can drive with Ware, Kelce, etc and win...so be it.

I think you focus more on Kelce and containing Smith. That's how they move the chains. 70 yard TD runs aren't exactly common.

 

[CreedBratton]

Want no part of the BB boys in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Hopefully Miami can upset them cause the raiders won't beat them now

 

[DJnVa]

Want no part of the BB boys in Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Hopefully Miami can upset them cause the raiders won't beat them now

I get that, but the last 3 weeks they've beaten the Bills, Bengals, and Ravens by a total of 15 points.

For all this talent they seemingly have, they play a lot of close games.

 

[mwonow]

Miami, if only because "the East is wide open" would actually be true if the Fins took the Pats out of the playoffs

 

[54thMA]

You don't think Eli is already headed there, as a 2-time super bowl winner including arguably the greatest upset of all time?

Super Bowl III Jets over the Colts was the greatest upset of all time, the Colts were huge favorites and were supposed to roll the Jets, the previous two Super Bowls were for the most part no contests, the Jets pulled off a gigantic upset at the time.

Namath saved the old AFL; had they gotten blown out of that game, chances were pretty good the AFL was going to be disbanded and that would be that.

So, as much as the Jets are a train wreck, as a Patriots fan, I'll always be appreciative of what Joe and the Jets pulled off...............

 

[jsinger121]

Super Bowl III Jets over the Colts was the greatest upset of all time, the Colts were huge favorites and were supposed to roll the Jets, the previous two Super Bowls were for the most part no contests, the Jets pulled off a gigantic upset at the time.

Namath saved the old AFL; had they gotten blown out of that game, chances were pretty good the AFL was going to be disbanded and that would be that.

So, as much as the Jets are a train wreck, as a Patriots fan, I'll always be appreciative of what Joe and the Jets pulled off...............

Wrong. The AFL and NFL announced the merger in 1966 well before super bowl 3.