Patriots "not expected" to franchise tag JC Jackson
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
That seems…interesting.
This may be one of those BB “go see what you can get in the market and we will try to match it” deals, but Jackson is going to get paid big bucks from someone and the franchise tag is likely the best way to keep him around short term.
He gone.
Edit: I guess I don’t understand the thought process here. JC was a UDFA. Even if he doesn’t play at a Pro Bowl level for the life of the contract, you’ve already extracted a tremendous amount of value out of him. You would probably want to reward a guy like that, especially in a post-Brady world. Mac is on a rookie deal.
Even if you want to make the argument he’s more of a ballhawk than a true shut down corner, taking the ball away is a unique and desirable skill set and JC is right up there with Xavien Howard as one of the best INT guys in the game.
This may be one of those BB “go see what you can get in the market and we will try to match it” deals, but Jackson is going to get paid big bucks from someone and the franchise tag is likely the best way to keep him around short term.
He gone.
Edit: I guess I don’t understand the thought process here. JC was a UDFA. Even if he doesn’t play at a Pro Bowl level for the life of the contract, you’ve already extracted a tremendous amount of value out of him. You would probably want to reward a guy like that, especially in a post-Brady world. Mac is on a rookie deal.
Even if you want to make the argument he’s more of a ballhawk than a true shut down corner, taking the ball away is a unique and desirable skill set and JC is right up there with Xavien Howard as one of the best INT guys in the game.
Last edited:
Rewarding a guy for previous value, in a system with a hard salary cap, would not be good business. Can't imagine Belichick viewing it that way at all.
In theory, I'm all for letting him walk, because he's going to cost more than he's worth for this defense. The question in practice is can you find a better way to deploy that money to build a better defense.
And Nelson Agholor. This is the result of overspending for tier 2 free agents when this team should have been more cautious via free agency and built more through the draft. This should never have been a quick fix rebuild IMO.
I understand you don’t want to overpay for past performance, and it could be that Bill feels he’s gotten the maximum bang for his buck and is ready to cut ties.
That being said, you’re sending a certain message when you do that. JC Jackson has done almost everything right, and yet that doesn’t appear to be enough to get the team to keep him around long term.
You can only build through the draft if you draft well, which the Pats didn't really do in the last half of the 2010s.
EDIT: I also think in the aggregate their free agent acquisitions last year were pretty good--of course I'd rather they didn't overpay for Agholor and especially Jonnu but it's not realistic to expect every free agent pick up to work well.
I don't think the signings last year were the issue. They could certainly free the cap space to sign JCJ to a long-term deal, but they don't seem to think he's worth the deal he would accept.
By not tagging him they're allowing JCJ to get his maximum pay day, there is also no indication the Patriots won't try to match offers for what he finds in free agency, not yet at least.
I tend to agree with them. Especially since it seems he can't cover Stefon Diggs and there's a pretty good chance we are going to see the Bills 2-3 times each year.
Some observers (myself included) think his effort in the run game wasn't great at times; hard to tell from the outside how diligent he was about practice/film study/etc. Historically the Pats have been reasonably willing to pay pretty good money (Mankins, Wilfork, Hightower come to mind) but generally only to players who are culture carriers/gym rates/film nerds.
I don't think any of the signings really effect this, they knew what the price tag on he and/or Gilmore were when they made those deals. More likely they feel like there is a price they want him at, a price they don't, and that they don't want an unhappy guy at 1/17.5 either way.
I would also say... the Patriots have generally done a really good job at finding/developing CBs (not always at drafting them), there is an argument that CB isn't where this team should spend big given that skillset.
I would also say... the Patriots have generally done a really good job at finding/developing CBs (not always at drafting them), there is an argument that CB isn't where this team should spend big given that skillset.
Anyone who calls himself Mr. INT might ask themselves why it is they get so many chances to make a play on the ball.
I mean, are you really going to try to throw on Williams Island if you don’t have to?
JC Jackson vs. the two first-team all-pros, Trevon Diggs and Jalen Ramsey.
Jackson: 106 targets, 52 comp (49.1%), 6.2 yds/target, 3 td, 8 int, 46.8 rating
Diggs: 103 targets, 54 comp (52.4%), 8.8 yds/target, 4 td, 11 int, 55.8 rating
Ramsey: 98 targets, 58 comp (59.2%), 6.4 yds/target, 3 td, 4 int, 71.1 rating
Targets per game:
Jackson: 6.6
Diggs: 6.4
Ramsey: 6.1
Completions per game:
Jackson: 3.3
Diggs: 3.4
Ramsey: 3.6
I mean, Jackson was targeted about the same as the two first team all-pros, and he held QBs to a lower rating than Diggs, a much lower rating than Ramsey, and held QBs to a worse completion percentage than either, and fewer yards per target than either.
All those picks weren't because teams threw at him so much more than other elite CBs. Virtually the same as Diggs, and just a tick above Ramsey. All that and I'm still comfortable saying that Ramsey is better than Jackson, but man, Jackson is frigging GOOD. And unlike years past (look at his career numbers - they're sick) when he had Gilmore opposite him, this year he was clearly the #1 corner and was tasked with all the tough assignments. The guy is terrific, and there's no spin that can change that.
Jackson: 106 targets, 52 comp (49.1%), 6.2 yds/target, 3 td, 8 int, 46.8 rating
Diggs: 103 targets, 54 comp (52.4%), 8.8 yds/target, 4 td, 11 int, 55.8 rating
Ramsey: 98 targets, 58 comp (59.2%), 6.4 yds/target, 3 td, 4 int, 71.1 rating
Targets per game:
Jackson: 6.6
Diggs: 6.4
Ramsey: 6.1
Completions per game:
Jackson: 3.3
Diggs: 3.4
Ramsey: 3.6
I mean, Jackson was targeted about the same as the two first team all-pros, and he held QBs to a lower rating than Diggs, a much lower rating than Ramsey, and held QBs to a worse completion percentage than either, and fewer yards per target than either.
All those picks weren't because teams threw at him so much more than other elite CBs. Virtually the same as Diggs, and just a tick above Ramsey. All that and I'm still comfortable saying that Ramsey is better than Jackson, but man, Jackson is frigging GOOD. And unlike years past (look at his career numbers - they're sick) when he had Gilmore opposite him, this year he was clearly the #1 corner and was tasked with all the tough assignments. The guy is terrific, and there's no spin that can change that.
I agree with this.
They've done a good job finding / developing CBs but they've also invested to do so. They traded for Talib and paid him decent money, then when he left signed Revis, and not long after that they signed Gilmore to big money, all the while throwing midround picks at the position. If they continue similar investment, I think we can expect good results; if they fail to invest, we can probably expect much worse results.
Thing that bothers me most about potentially losing Jackson is he is only 26 years old and coming off the best season of his career. A four or five year deal is not risky based on his age/skill profile at this time. This isn't Ty Law in 2004 as a 30 year old seeking a new deal. This is a guy they should invest in. Hope he gives the Pats a chance to match.
I'm not totally surprised, and IBWT and all that, but unless they think his 2021 was a fluke or that the Bills games were a true exposure of his achilles' heel, he feels like a guy you pay to me. Re: the post comparing him to Ramsey, it certainly felt like the stats and eye test had him among the league's best, and he's coming due for a contract (likely) near the beginning of his physical prime.
They proved with the Gilmore contract they’re not afraid to pay top of the market for an elite CB. That tells me they aren’t comfortable giving JCJ a top of the market contract. They were correct with Butler. I think they’ll prove correct with JCJ. There’s little chance that JCJ plays as well in 2022-2025 as Gilmore did in 2017-2020 IMO.
Gilmore was an absolute home run signing so not really fair to compare JCJ to that. I think it's quite reasonable to expect JCJ to have similar seasons as his last few in 2022-2025 and if he did, I think he'd be largely worth whatever deal he gets. Hard to know the rationale of the Pats on this one but I think the odds of JCJ turning into an albatross are relatively low, injuries-excluded. They may like him but be constrained on cap or think they have cheaper options. Or, they may be really comfortable with their ability to find another diamond in the rough. Or they could have that wink wink come back to us arrangement that they had with McCourty a few years back.
Odds are that he's gone and I'm not very optimistic about where that position currently stands given how useless JoeJuan proved to be. I'm sure they will be shopping hard in FA and the draft if JCJ does go elsewhere.
That’s all fair. The way I think about it is that a first round CB at 21 would cost a similar amount over his first five years of control in total than JCJ would cost for a single year on the franchise tag.
Yes, I think using the first-round pick on a cornerback makes sense if they don't use the first-round pick on a wide receiver and trade and/or sign for someone like Amari Cooper or Calvin Ridley to fill that need.
The history of the franchise tag under BB(from the Globe). JCJ is the same age as Asante in 2007- who made the Pro Bowl from '07-'10.
My understanding is that tagging and trading JCJ would could bring back, say, a #2 and #4 or perhaps more. And the Pats have until 3/8 to apply the tag. Any chance they're letting JCJ drum up a deal, at which point they'll clear space, tag him, and work a trade? In other words, if tagging him would bring back a reasonably high pick or two -- and if we can clear the space, which seems likely -- then why in the world would we just let him walk?
They don’t (1) want to pay him the tag salary and (2) don’t think others will pay him more.
Adding CB ago the list of first round-worthy priorities, alongside ILB, OLB, OL and WR.
Counter to the trend, I think WR is least crucial of those. Bourne and Jacoby are at least cromulent, Henry an excellent TE, and Algholor and Jonnu certainly could be better next year with more time in the system.
That said, feeling more and more like another trade down year. Plenty of areas to improve.
Counter to the trend, I think WR is least crucial of those. Bourne and Jacoby are at least cromulent, Henry an excellent TE, and Algholor and Jonnu certainly could be better next year with more time in the system.
That said, feeling more and more like another trade down year. Plenty of areas to improve.
I agree he’s not likely to get that. But go back to post #19, and compare Jackson to Ramsey. And Ramsey had better players around him than Jackson. And before we talk about how JC gets burned in big spots sometimes, let’s not forget how Ramsey got torched by Evans for the long TD late in the NFC divisional game. Even great ones get roasted from time to time.
The point is that I wouldn’t be shocked if JC got something close to Ramsey.
Couldn't agree more, someone will massively overpay him.
He's got the benefit of it being a weak free agent class for CB's as well.
I appreciate what he did here, helped the team win a Super Bowl.
Happy trails.
Is that message "You can go to a city/state of your choosing for as much money as you can possibly extract from the market a year or 2 earlier then in some cases, after learning and developing in what has to be considered one of the best and possibly only places you could have."
Yea Pats are doing him dirty.
Now you might have a valid point for the players LEFT BEHIND in NE. They might feel like "Damn....we had a really good corner and they let him go."
Or maybe they realize that the Franchise screws over players pretty regularly to the point that many negotiate a "No Franchise agreement/handshake" and think "Damn good on them for letting JC test the market and make that Money."
Hard to know the exact message it sends.
I don’t want to pay a very good corner - even acknowledging the hole it’s going to leave - ELITE corner money. Let him go.
It’s a bummer they couldn’t lock him up more reasonably a few years ago but they couldn’t and here we are. Draft corner in the first or second round, again in the 4th, hope for more UDFA luck and move on.
It’s a bummer they couldn’t lock him up more reasonably a few years ago but they couldn’t and here we are. Draft corner in the first or second round, again in the 4th, hope for more UDFA luck and move on.
I agree - I wouldn't want to pay a very good corner elite corner money. But why do you think Jackson isn't elite? What do you define as elite? Jackson stacks up quite nicely against the two first team All-Pro corners, Diggs and Ramsey.
I wouldn't want to pay an elite corner elite corner money.
The only positions I want to pay elite money for anything other than a no doubt HOF player are:
D-line
QB
That's it.
The only positions I want to pay elite money for anything other than a no doubt HOF player are:
D-line
QB
That's it.
I think he's a really good player with a TON of production, which doesn't necessarily make him elite, IMO. I wish he were going to be cheaper to sign. I wish they knew better what he'll be like once he gets paid. I wish we didn't have so many holes and so little cap room. I wish him well.
I think in today's game a great corner allows you to do a whole lot more on defense than a top tier defensive lineman. And I thought the whole point of having a young QB making peanuts was to have the cash and cap space to put together an elite team around him. Why is overpaying for good-not-great players like Bill did in the last offseason more acceptable than overpaying for a great-not-HOF one?
Late to the thread but "the Pats are screwing JCJ because they are not franchising him" is a . . . . take, I guess.
Also who cares if he says he wants Ramsey money? Dude was a UDFA and is going to cash in. Good for him.
Also who cares if he says he wants Ramsey money? Dude was a UDFA and is going to cash in. Good for him.
Exactly.
Rewind the tape to about 4 years ago.
Malcolm Butler played 3 years on his rookie deal, 2014-2016, making $1.53M. The Pats gave him the 2nd round tender in 2017 at $3.91M. He then signed a 5 year, $61.25M deal with the Titans ($30M guaranteed), and was cut after 3 years.
JCJ played 3 years on his rookie deal, 2018-2020, making $1.72M. The Pats also gave him the 2nd round tender in 2021 at $3.384M (guessing it was lower for him due to the depressed salary cap?). He's now a UFA, just like Butler was.
Both were UDFAs that rose to stardom, and who had some struggles down the stretch of year 4 (Butler culminating in the Super Bowl benching, JCJ with the disastrous Buffalo games).
I can't pretend to be able to analyze which player is/was better. JCJ has better length than Butler, but also felt more opportunistic whereas it felt like Butler was slightly better sticking to a man (e.g., some of his battles vs. peak AB and OBJ). But it feels like both players are (or were) very good but not quite cream of the crop CBs.
Anyway, Bill made a calculated decision to let Butler walk, and he was correct. It doesn't mean he will be correct with JCJ, but I trust his gut on this.
If NE moves on from JCJ, I'd take a run at a guy like Xavier Rhodes as a stop gap while they figure things out. You'd think he'd probably get a contract in line with what Mills got last year. Rhodes played for about $4.8m last season and at 32, probably isn't going to get much more. He's been okay for Indy, and more or less fits what NE wants to do defensively. Ideally, you'd draft a CB with a Day One or Pick, and let him, Mills, and Rhodes battle it out with Jon Jones handling slot. If Wade also emerges, great - that might allow you to move Mills to the hybrid role NE probably had in mind for him in the first place.
As of now, here's their corner depth chart, and how they did last year:
Mills: 65 targets, 37 comp (56.9%), 6.2 yds/target, 7 td, 0 int, 111.4 rating
Williams: 18 targets, 10 comp (55.6%), 7.2 yds/target, td, 0 int, 96.8 rating
Jones: 34 targets, 22 comp (64.7%), 8.1 yds/target, 1 td, 1 int, 87.3 rating
Bryant: 42 targets, 30 comp (71.4%), 8.6 yds/target, 0 td, 1 int, 87.6 rating
Wade: no coverage stats
And this is what they're losing in JC:
Jackson: 106 targets, 52 comp (49.1%), 6.2 yds/target, 3 td, 8 int, 46.8 rating
I mean, you've got one great corner and bunch of middling corners. Ok players, nothing terribly wrong with them, but none of them are particularly GOOD. Now imagine, unless they replace Jackson with a stud, Mills or Williams or Bryant covering the opponents' #1 WR. It's going to be a bloodbath.
So let's go to the FA list here: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-rankings-cornerbacks
Look who's #1 on the list: Jackson. And look who's #2 on the list: Gilmore.
-sigh-
I wonder what a guy like Charvarius Ward would cost. Look at his stats - he's been wildly up and down in terms of performance. Coming off a good year, and is just 25, he might be worth a four-year deal, but he won't be cheap.
I was hoping they would just re-sign Jackson and use their draft capital to pick up a DL, LB, and WR, with CB being a later round selection. But letting JC go, it seems like they're going to have to use a top pick on a corner. Now Bill has done pretty well with DBs, especially UDFAs, so I think he can find a replacement, but that replacement won't be nearly as good as JC is *NOW*, so either they're going to have to spend $$ in free agency or they're going to take a step back on defense. And that may be fine. Maybe 2023 is the target season for this team to be a Super Bowl contender again. Mac in year 3 on a rookie deal, Barmore being a monster, Perkins stepping into his role this year so hitting 2023 as a year 2 stud (maybe), giving a draftee from this year's draft time to mature at CB. I don't know.
Mills: 65 targets, 37 comp (56.9%), 6.2 yds/target, 7 td, 0 int, 111.4 rating
Williams: 18 targets, 10 comp (55.6%), 7.2 yds/target, td, 0 int, 96.8 rating
Jones: 34 targets, 22 comp (64.7%), 8.1 yds/target, 1 td, 1 int, 87.3 rating
Bryant: 42 targets, 30 comp (71.4%), 8.6 yds/target, 0 td, 1 int, 87.6 rating
Wade: no coverage stats
And this is what they're losing in JC:
Jackson: 106 targets, 52 comp (49.1%), 6.2 yds/target, 3 td, 8 int, 46.8 rating
I mean, you've got one great corner and bunch of middling corners. Ok players, nothing terribly wrong with them, but none of them are particularly GOOD. Now imagine, unless they replace Jackson with a stud, Mills or Williams or Bryant covering the opponents' #1 WR. It's going to be a bloodbath.
So let's go to the FA list here: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-rankings-cornerbacks
Look who's #1 on the list: Jackson. And look who's #2 on the list: Gilmore.
-sigh-
I wonder what a guy like Charvarius Ward would cost. Look at his stats - he's been wildly up and down in terms of performance. Coming off a good year, and is just 25, he might be worth a four-year deal, but he won't be cheap.
I was hoping they would just re-sign Jackson and use their draft capital to pick up a DL, LB, and WR, with CB being a later round selection. But letting JC go, it seems like they're going to have to use a top pick on a corner. Now Bill has done pretty well with DBs, especially UDFAs, so I think he can find a replacement, but that replacement won't be nearly as good as JC is *NOW*, so either they're going to have to spend $$ in free agency or they're going to take a step back on defense. And that may be fine. Maybe 2023 is the target season for this team to be a Super Bowl contender again. Mac in year 3 on a rookie deal, Barmore being a monster, Perkins stepping into his role this year so hitting 2023 as a year 2 stud (maybe), giving a draftee from this year's draft time to mature at CB. I don't know.
I’m also of the opinion we can’t afford the premium price, even if he were a true shutdown CB, which I don’t think he is.
However, I’m still scarred by BBs defense historically not creating pressure: lots of two gap and limited investment in pass rush.
if Judon doesn’t come back as a one man gang, they damn well better invest at corner or they’re in trouble again.
On the other hand they couldn’t stop the run down the stretch either
Yep, and the "thanks free agent X" takes are nonsense too.
JCJ is a great CB. Bill thinks that he's going to get more money than makes sense from a cap POV and doesn't want to tag him for whatever reason. C'est la vie. IBWT.
Thank you. I feel like some Pats fans want to characterize JC Jackson as a "right place, right time" type of CB, as if he were Logan Ryan or something. Dude makes plays on the ball constantly, he's a really good cover corner. The one caveat with him are the penalties, but I feel like even those will likely go down as he becomes more respected around the league and refs give him a bit more leeway to be physical.
I'll be disappointed to see Jackson go. He's a top flight corner and any replacement is likely to be a downgrade. I was hoping for a tag and trade at a minimum.
As others have said the Pats need another CB even if JC returns. There's a lot of holes to fill on the team particularly on the D without a lot of money to spend. I don't see how they can afford to use 3 top picks on the CB position. They'll need to hit on a few low to mid-size FA deals.
As others have said the Pats need another CB even if JC returns. There's a lot of holes to fill on the team particularly on the D without a lot of money to spend. I don't see how they can afford to use 3 top picks on the CB position. They'll need to hit on a few low to mid-size FA deals.