Patriots-Chargers Discussion

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I don't expect to see Wade much, if at all, in this game after the lengthy time out. But he's somebody I will be watching closely going forward.

Longer term, one of the more important things that could happen to the Pats the rest of this year is finding a serviceable CB out of the scrapheap/UDFA/FA bin that can be a cost-controlled contributor for the next few years. Belichick has been very good at that in the past.
 

Marbleheader

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I'm concerned Ekeler is going to have a game like Kamara did a few weeks ago. Last year he was coming back from an injury.
 

BusRaker

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Looks like aside from a Lamar problem last week they have had similar results as New England. Should be a fun one (and hopefully a fun won)!
 

Gash Prex

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Cross posting from the Mac thread

Mac is in for a real test this week. According BB and McDaniels, the Chargers disguise their defenses and pre-snap reads are not a good indicator of the defense. I assume the Pats will try to simplify their offense a bit and make simple checks post snap so that Mac isn't holding the ball too long.

View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1453391662886031360


View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1453023295847141386

I think this week will be a good test for Mac to see how advanced he really is in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised to see a down week for Mac or a few WTF interceptions where he reads the defense post-snap incorrectly.
 

SteveF

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You can often tell what the safeties are going to do by the fronts. If you've got a 4i on the weak side and 6 men in the box on a non obvious passing down, there's a good chance the safety is coming down to defend the C gap to that side. So fronts can be a clue as to whether the safeties are going to spin.

I think this defense might be weakish to a two back look. They play a lot of cover 6, and the quarters side of the field tends to be weak in the curl/flat. So you could line up Smith in the backfield, Henry on the line and have Henry and Smith put the curl/flat defender into a bit of a bind. In terms of the run, tite fronts have a similar issue to bear fronts in that you can run counters with a fullback coming across the formation. We might see Jakob Johnson both lead blocking and catching passes a bit this game. Playing with that lead blocker in the backfield will help you outnumber the defense to the play side since it allows you to always create the extra gap.
 

ShaneTrot

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The Chargers' defense has only yielded 1211 passing yards which is the second-lowest number in the league. They have given up 975 yards on the ground, 162.5 yards/game, only Houston has allowed more rushing yards (and Houston has played one more game.) They have forced 9 fumbles. The Pats should be able to run on them but better be careful with the ball.
 

tims4wins

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The Chargers' defense has only yielded 1211 passing yards which is the second-lowest number in the league. They have given up 975 yards on the ground, 162.5 yards/game, only Houston has allowed more rushing yards (and Houston has played one more game.) They have forced 9 fumbles. The Pats should be able to run on them but better be careful with the ball.
Remember they have already had their bye. Passing YPG against is still 4th in the league, but rating against is 13th in the league. They are 25th in completion % allowed at 68.6%, allowing 9 TD vs. 6 INT and 7.0 YPA... which is remarkably similar to Mac's 70.4% / 9 TD / 6 INT / 7.2 YPA.

So they're a decent or above average pass D, but Mac should be ok. Add that to their run D and the Pats offense has a chance for a pretty successful day. Which they will need in order to win.
 

SMU_Sox

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You can often tell what the safeties are going to do by the fronts. If you've got a 4i on the weak side and 6 men in the box on a non obvious passing down, there's a good chance the safety is coming down to defend the C gap to that side. So fronts can be a clue as to whether the safeties are going to spin.

I think this defense might be weakish to a two back look. They play a lot of cover 6, and the quarters side of the field tends to be weak in the curl/flat. So you could line up Smith in the backfield, Henry on the line and have Henry and Smith put the curl/flat defender into a bit of a bind. In terms of the run, tite fronts have a similar issue to bear fronts in that you can run counters with a fullback coming across the formation. We might see Jakob Johnson both lead blocking and catching passes a bit this game. Playing with that lead blocker in the backfield will help you outnumber the defense to the play side since it allows you to always create the extra gap.
Fantastic post. What was old is new again, right? The heavy 2 high teams (now even lighter and faster)are vulnerable against the run. Last year the Rams overcame some of that liability with fantastic safety play and a great D-Line using that 1.5 gap scheme. Of course they had the horses to run it.

PFF has LAC 31st in run defense and Football Outsiders has them 32nd at 8.3% which is historically bad (if it holds). I expect a lot of 12, 21, 22 and heavier personnel. Really glad the OL has started to not just solidify but dominate.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Only just recently started getting back into the Patriots after watching the Houston game. Right now I think the Pats are so much like the '21 Red Sox... I just saw this as Step One in a rebuilding year that BB accelerated quickly to more like year 3 of a rebuild in which they're just on the cusp of being a perennial contender. Some things fall their way, make some key plays, get some luck and suddenly they could find themselves ahead of projections. San Diego seems like the perfect opponent to test where they are. A victory will have me thinking playoffs. Again... similar to the Sox. I just didn't expect it then found myself thinking ALCS by the end of June. A loss though I think will confirm that they're really not there yet.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Remember they have already had their bye. Passing YPG against is still 4th in the league, but rating against is 13th in the league. They are 25th in completion % allowed at 68.6%, allowing 9 TD vs. 6 INT and 7.0 YPA... which is remarkably similar to Mac's 70.4% / 9 TD / 6 INT / 7.2 YPA.

So they're a decent or above average pass D, but Mac should be ok. Add that to their run D and the Pats offense has a chance for a pretty successful day. Which they will need in order to win.
I think it's fair to extrapolate from this that the Chargers like to keep the play in front of them. Dont give up a lot of yards, but give up high completion % for low yards.

Conversely, they're fucking ATTROCIOUS against the run. Last in the league by a mile (163 yards per game). Now, to be fair, theyve played 3 of the top 5 rushing teams in the league so that number will probably level out. But it's certainly the achilles heel of the defense.

So to surmise - a defense that gets gashed on the ground and prefers to give up short, high percentage passes. Certainly seems like a game where the Pat's should control the ball for 38+ minutes and score 25+ points.

If the Patriots can win the turnover battle - a big if for this team - I like their chances.
 

tims4wins

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I think it's fair to extrapolate from this that the Chargers like to keep the play in front of them. Dont give up a lot of yards, but give up high completion % for low yards.

Conversely, they're fucking ATTROCIOUS against the run. Last in the league by a mile (163 yards per game). Now, to be fair, theyve played 3 of the top 5 rushing teams in the league so that number will probably level out. But it's certainly the achilles heel of the defense.

So to surmise - a defense that gets gashed on the ground and prefers to give up short, high percentage passes. Certainly seems like a game where the Pat's should control the ball for 38+ minutes and score 25+ points.

If the Patriots can win the turnover battle - a big if for this team - I like their chances.
Yeah it's kind of interesting that the Chargers D seems to play (by which I mean, concede) almost exactly the type of style that the Pats offense likes to play. That gives me hope for Sunday.
 

bunchabums

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Jul 16, 2005
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My dad lives in LA and is taking me to this one. Both of our first trip to Sofi. Any local advice for game day?
Make sure he pays for parking (it's outrageous). And they aren't exactly a well-oiled machine getting cars in so pad it with a lot of extra time at the start.

Lastly, you will watch about 80% of the game on the overhead TV because it's that good.
 

SMU_Sox

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Chargers struggle with runs up the gut 32nd, to the right tackle, 28th, and right edge 21st. Bet we see a lot of full back lead with inside zone, duo, and traditional power to the right. A month ago I didn’t think the offense and the blocking was good enough to compete with LAC. Now though I believe they can win. This should be a close game. If the Pats can hold up in the red zone defensively they should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. This feels like a game Harris and Stevenson put up 150+ yards on the ground. With the Jets I get why they went with JJT - Jets interior DL was a strength and the Pats probably wanted more of an outside back to pair with Harris but this should be a Dodge game.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Chargers struggle with runs up the gut 32nd, to the right tackle, 28th, and right edge 21st. Bet we see a lot of full back lead with inside zone, duo, and traditional power to the right. A month ago I didn’t think the offense and the blocking was good enough to compete with LAC. Now though I believe they can win. This should be a close game. If the Pats can hold up in the red zone defensively they should be able to move the ball and put points on the board. This feels like a game Harris and Stevenson put up 150+ yards on the ground. With the Jets I get why they went with JJT - Jets interior DL was a strength and the Pats probably wanted more of an outside back to pair with Harris but this should be a Dodge game.
I really hope you're right. I'd love to see a breakout game for Stevenson and this matchup is seems perfect for that.
 

Jungleland

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Apparently Ekeler had "soreness" after Wednesday's practice, but they're optimistic he'll play. If it's borderline, I would be surprised if he sits given how important conference wins are shaping up to be in the AFC West.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Mac is in for a real test this week. According BB and McDaniels, the Chargers disguise their defenses and pre-snap reads are not a good indicator of the defense. I assume the Pats will try to simplify their offense a bit and make simple checks post snap so that Mac isn't holding the ball too long.
Goos example of Mac doing a post-snap read here, from the Miami game:
View: https://twitter.com/NFLMatchup/status/1454574535349579776?s=20

NFLMatchup: Mac Jones knows how to make the right throw, to the right place, at the right time. Here, @GregCosell takes to the film to highlight his decisiveness and precise ball placement against Zone. The @Patriots visit the @Chargers Sunday.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I think it's fair to extrapolate from this that the Chargers like to keep the play in front of them. Dont give up a lot of yards, but give up high completion % for low yards.

Conversely, they're fucking ATTROCIOUS against the run. Last in the league by a mile (163 yards per game). Now, to be fair, theyve played 3 of the top 5 rushing teams in the league so that number will probably level out. But it's certainly the achilles heel of the defense.

So to surmise - a defense that gets gashed on the ground and prefers to give up short, high percentage passes. Certainly seems like a game where the Pat's should control the ball for 38+ minutes and score 25+ points.

If the Patriots can win the turnover battle - a big if for this team - I like their chances.
Check, check, and check.

You should all hate posts like this. This one shot in the dark prediction will boost my confidence for all my future bullshit predictions.

Get ready for the shitshow!