Patriots at Bills Part 3

RedOctober3829

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Stop the self-inflicted errors, play from ahead, and use Harris/Rhamondre to run it down their throats in the 2nd half. Control Allen in the pocket, disguise the zone looks to hopefully force a turnover or two, and take the fight to them. To me, this is a house money game considering they're in the playoffs with a rookie QB but at the same time if they play a clean game they can beat anyone in the AFC. It would be so sweet to go up to Buffalo and end their season.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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Stop the self-inflicted errors, play from ahead, and use Harris/Rhamondre to run it down their throats in the 2nd half. Control Allen in the pocket, disguise the zone looks to hopefully force a turnover or two, and take the fight to them. To me, this is a house money game considering they're in the playoffs with a rookie QB but at the same time if they play a clean game they can beat anyone in the AFC. It would be so sweet to go up to Buffalo and end their season.
Seems the template for the offense is the '01 Pats team. Safe small yardage passes and lots of running. Hopefully Mac doesn't end up in the same situation that Brady found himself though all those years ago needing to drive downfield with limited time remaining on the clock. Makes for great moments but I'd prefer just a clean stress free big win.
 

DJnVa

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Mac plays well, Harris over 100, we get a trick play TD, bad Josh Allen shows up--Pats 30-17
 

BaseballJones

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In the Pats' last three losses...

- Fell behind 20-0 to Indy. Blocked punt TD was key. After the, the Pats scored 17 unanswered as Mac got hot. Taylor put the game away with the long run. But they showed the ability to come back. In the 17 point comeback, Mac went 13-22 (59.1%) for 173 yds, 2 td, 0 int.

- Fell behind 20-7 to Buffalo. Cut it to 26-21 and had a chance for a stop but then Jackson dropped what for him was a pretty easy interception that would have given the Pats the ball deep in Buffalo territory with the chance to take the lead, and all the momentum. During the comeback, Mac went 8-11 (72.7%), for 86 yds, 0 td, 0 int.

- Fell behind 17-0 to Miami. Pick six fueled the quick start for Miami. Pats came back to make it 27-24 with a chance to get a stop to get the ball back with a little under 2 minutes left. Couldn't get the stop. During the comeback, Mac went 14-22 (63.6%), 198 yds, 1 td, 0 int.

Key takeaways:
(1) In 2 of these 3 losses, the Pats gave up an early score without the defense even being on the field. Totally unacceptable and each time it completely changed the game. It's one thing to be down 7-0. It's another to be down 7-0 and then give up a ridiculous TD by the opposing team's defense or special teams.

(2) Mac absolutely seems to have the ability to rally a team when he is turned loose in desperate times. All three games he had to throw a ton and during the comebacks, he moved the team up and down the field and got the ball in the end zone. I don't know that you want to center a total game plan around him throwing 50 times, but if he needs to sit back there and sling it, he can.

(3) The defense couldn't get that one last stop in any of the three games. They got SOME stops, enough to allow the offense to make the comeback, but they couldn't get that one last stop to give the team a chance to take the lead at the end. It would be really, really nice if the defense could come up big on Saturday.

(4) Mac struggles early. At least in these three games he did. So I think they want to establish the run first, but of course, that's likely what Buffalo is expecting. So I might consider opening up with play action with the intent to throw short. Get him into a rhythm as soon as possible.
 

Coachster

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We seem to have trouble with mobile quarterbacks, as we can't manage both to seal the edge and put pressure on the passer. Even Tua, not the quickest guy, had several back-breaking scrambles in the 2nd half. Just our luck to face a quarterback who can and will run.

We can't be giving up 20+ yard runs on 3rd and long.
 

jacklamabe65

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I attended an AFL Playoff Game between the Pats and the Bills at Fenway in December 1964. The Pats lost by 8 points in a blizzard. I've been pissed for 57 years about that game. Fuck Jackie Kemp, Cookie Gilchrist, and Elbert Dubenion. Bury the Bills Mafia in the end zone at Giants Stadium. WIN.
 

Mantush

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Jul 30, 2014
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I saw the ticket prices are ridiculously low, so I'm going to be flying up from Florida to see the game. The Patriots have won every game I've watched, so I'm going to take credit for this one when they win on Saturday.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I attended an AFL Playoff Game between the Pats and the Bills at Fenway in December 1964. The Pats lost by 8 points in a blizzard. I've been pissed for 57 years about that game. Fuck Jackie Kemp, Cookie Gilchrist, and Elbert Dubenion. Bury the Bills Mafia in the end zone at Giants Stadium. WIN.
I also can't hate Gilchrist! He grew up in the same small town as my father and played HS football with his (my dad's) older brother and he was friendly with the entire family. I saw him several times when I was just a small kid in the 70's when we drove out there to visit and he was like a giant teddy bear.
 

cornwalls@6

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An unexpected contributor plays a big role on offense. I think it's Jonnu. Otherwise, they establish the run, get enough play action stuff going, either get an early lead or stay within 10 all night, play good situational defense, and grind out a rock fight. Pats 21-Bills 20.
 

wiffleballhero

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Mar 28, 2009
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In the simulacrum
I'm becoming obsessed with the weather for this one. It is going to be cold, cold, cold. I hope the next time I see a clip of practice video I can find Mac standing next to the freezer full of practice balls.
 

Cotillion

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Jun 11, 2019
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Cold enough that “deflategate II: electric boogaloo” would be out of development hell. Balls are going to be way under pressure as soon as they leave the locker room and acclimate.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I'm becoming obsessed with the weather for this one. It is going to be cold, cold, cold. I hope the next time I see a clip of practice video I can find Mac standing next to the freezer full of practice balls.
How Jeffrey Dahmer spent prom night.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Nov 17, 2010
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I've been irrationally optimistic about this match up.

There's no way the Bills go a whole game again without punting.

There's no way the Bills defense goes the whole game again only missing one tackle. Especially in zero degree temps when it REALLY fucking hurts getting mauled by bigger linemen and bruisers like Harris and Stevenson.

There's no way Allen can pull that many rabbits out of his hat again.

There's no way they get a special teams TD again.

There's no way the refs are that incompetent again.

There's no way the Pat's jump offside again on a missed FG and give up a TD instead.

The Bills linebackers were sitting 2 yards off the line and charging the line immediately. Josh countered this with outside runs, which worked well. I expect them to add a new wrinkle where they drop in play action passes over the linebackers heads.

Pat's win, 22 - 13.
 

rodderick

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Wishful thinking prediction: Pats win 19-17. They get out to a fast start, Buffalo plays catch up all day in an ugly game and Allen gets the ball down 2 with 1:30 left but throws a pick to JC.

Anyways it's the playoffs let's fucking go. Never expected to be here after starting 2-4.
 

Jungleland

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My irrational optimism has increased by the day. As much as Buffalo should win, I keep coming back to how important I expect the run game to be tonight. If stupid mistakes are limited (and ideally good Mac Jones shows up before the 4th quarter), I think Harris and Stevenson put the team on their backs and it’s a much closer matchup than last time.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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48354I don't think it's enough to just win the turnover battle today. The pats need to not turn the ball over at all and avoid blowing their own feet off with stupid unforced penalties. You still may lose even doing both of those things, but you'll definitely lose if you don't.

Keep it simple. Out-execute. Keep Allen between the hash marks. Go out there and slaughter them on the ground and beat them where they live.
 

RedOctober3829

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Can’t wait. It’s your classic nobody believes in us Rodney Harrison type game. Would love to see Dugger just lay somebody out over the middle to set the tone early. I just want to see Mac play well and have a shot in the 4th quarter snd I’ll take my chances.
 

TSC

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Oct 25, 2007
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I am remarkable sanguine about tonight.

This season has been a success, regardless of what happens. But also - I feel like this team isn't done yet. I think the extreme cold is going to hurt Allen. I think Bill is going to have the team playing mistake free ball. I think Mac is good enough to manage this team into a position to win a hard, low scoring game.

And if not? It was good experience for the kid, and he'll be better for it next year.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I'd expect Harry to be in there given that they're likely to run the ball 99.4% of the time. Wilkerson likely activated and traveling in case a WR tests positive for COVID or whatever. Teams have unlimited PS promotions in the playoffs.
 

DJnVa

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It's weird to have a playoff game that doesn't feel like life or death. Yes, I want to win BAD, but it's just...different. I know this place is and how Boston fans in general are, and if Jones doesn't play well it'll be brutal, but I'm on going on record now--I think that dude is an assassin, and it may not show this year, but before he's done I bet he's going to beat Josh Allen in the postseason more than Allen beats him.

I'm sure it's shown up in a thread here this week, but how many times have the Pats been underdogs in the postseason in the BB era?
 

RedOctober3829

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It's weird to have a playoff game that doesn't feel like life or death. Yes, I want to win BAD, but it's just...different. I know this place is and how Boston fans in general are, and if Jones doesn't play well it'll be brutal, but I'm on going on record now--I think that dude is an assassin, and it may not show this year, but before he's done I bet he's going to beat Josh Allen in the postseason more than Allen beats him.

I'm sure it's shown up in a thread here this week, but how many times have the Pats been underdogs in the postseason in the BB era?
2018 AFC title game at KC(3 points dogs)
2006 Divisional Round at SD(5 point dogs)
2005 Divisional Round at Denver(3 point dogs)
2004 AFC title game at Pittsburgh(3 point dogs)
2001 AFC title game at Pittsburgh(10 point dogs)
2001 Super Bowl vs. STL(14 point dogs)
 

Mystic Merlin

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2018 AFC title game at KC(3 points dogs)
2006 Divisional Round at SD(5 point dogs)
2005 Divisional Round at Denver(3 point dogs)
2004 AFC title game at Pittsburgh(3 point dogs)
2001 AFC title game at Pittsburgh(10 point dogs)
2001 Super Bowl vs. STL(14 point dogs)
Also the ‘06 AFCCG at Indy and ‘13 AFCCG at Denver.

EDIT - PFR has the Pats as 3 point favorites v PIT in the ‘04 AFCCG. Shrug.
 

Tim Salmon

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Oct 24, 2005
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Wishful thinking prediction: Pats win 19-17. They get out to a fast start, Buffalo plays catch up all day in an ugly game and Allen gets the ball down 2 with 1:30 left but throws a pick to JC.

Anyways it's the playoffs let's fucking go. Never expected to be here after starting 2-4.
Your wishful thinking = my blood fingernails. I don’t think I have the emotional stamina for a 2-point game in either direction.
 

Saints Rest

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Can’t wait. It’s your classic nobody believes in us Rodney Harrison type game. Would love to see Dugger just lay somebody out over the middle to set the tone early. I just want to see Mac play well and have a shot in the 4th quarter snd I’ll take my chances.
With Mills out due to COVID, I wonder if we will see the return of the amoeba defense and a heavy mix of dime and 7-man zone coverage along with a healthy mix of zone blitzes.

On offense, I wonder if we see Brown at LT and Onwenu at RT just to throw off the Bills who are likely expecting a freeway to Jones over Herron.
 

RedOctober3829

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With Mills out due to COVID, I wonder if we will see the return of the amoeba defense and a heavy mix of dime and 7-man zone coverage along with a healthy mix of zone blitzes.

On offense, I wonder if we see Brown at LT and Onwenu at RT just to throw off the Bills who are likely expecting a freeway to Jones over Herron.
I tend to think Herron will be at LT because it would create more holes moving multiple people around.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I'm not at all a gambler (I think the last bet I made was in middle school ~1982), but how are people betting the O/U in this game? (44 points). I've always been told that you either bet the over or not at all for any particular game, but the under has to be tempting here, huh?
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Wishful thinking prediction: Pats win 19-17. They get out to a fast start, Buffalo plays catch up all day in an ugly game and Allen gets the ball down 2 with 1:30 left but throws a pick to JC.

Anyways it's the playoffs let's fucking go. Never expected to be here after starting 2-4.
Yep the bright side: this team was 2-4 but went 8-3 over the last 11, with Mac playing better in the second half than he did in the first half, and they’re in the playoffs.

Damned good season. House money. But let’s hope it keeps going!
 

Red Averages

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What am I missing: Damien Harris is +1300 (13x payout) if he gets 125 yards + 1 TD or +1200 (12x) if he gets 100 yards and 2 TDs.

The Pats typically rush around 25-30 times per game. Assume he gets 60% of these, it's 15-20 carries. In the first game he had 111 yards and a TD on 10 carries before getting hurt. BamBam had 24 carries for 78 yards. In the 2nd game, Harris was 18 carries for 103 yards and 3 TDs despite being behind most of the game. Given the weather, why is this ~7% odds?