Patriot Trade Deadline Speculation

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
In the ongoing offense discussion,
I would have to expect the Pats to be trade-deadline sellers this year, not buyers.
Who are the players who we might see getting shipped out and is there anyone potentially outgoing who would yield anything more than a late-round pick?
According to spotrac, the Pats are sitting on $14.5M in cap space so we shoudl have room to absorb some dead-cap hits if necessary.
It seems to me that anyone who isn't signed past this year is an obvious target, but might not yield much of a return. Those whose contracts expire this year (listed in order of this year's cap figure):
  • Hightower
  • DMac
  • Phillps
  • JCJ
  • Slater
  • Karras
  • Bolden
  • King
  • Bentley
  • Langi
  • Davis
  • Meyers
  • Gunner
  • Jakob
  • Folk
Of those, who might have value to a playoff-bound team? In my mind, DMac, JCJ, Phillips, Folk, Meyers.

What do you all think this trade deadline might show?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
14,340
I think the next two games will have a lot to do with how the Pats approach the deadline. At 2-3, if they somehow beat Dallas and then (as they should) beat the Jets, they'll be at 4-3 and winners of 3 straight, and I'd fully expect them to view the rest of the season differently than if they lose to Dallas and/or unexpectedly lose to the Jets.
 

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
13,195
UWS, NYC
While I appreciate your premise that the Pats will be sellers at the deadline, I just don't see it. Even at 3-4, or even (God forbid) 2-5.

Belichick has shown zero history of being willing not to do everything he can do to win every game on the schedule, even when it's not in the team's longer-term interest.

I hope you're right though, because it doesn't feel like this is the year.

Edit: On your list, assuming Meyers and JCJ are staying put because they're an important part of 2022, McCourty feels like the one name that might bring back draft capital you'd actually notice.
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
21,388
A Scud Away from Hell
It's difficult to find any WR that fits well within the system, both on the field and off. Myers seems to be the type of player whose value will almost always be greater with the Pats than elsewhere. I don't think he'll fetch anything worth his value to the team.

I'd be all up for finding interior line help to be a rotational DT to replace Anderson.

And Burkhead if he's healthy.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
12,643
Santa Monica, CA
I don't remember the NFL trade deadline being like the NBA or MLB where teams are just unloading a number of guys for draft picks or younger players. Not to mention that, likely sitting at 3-4 or 4-3, the Pats are going to be focused on making the playoffs.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
28,263
Hingham, MA
They aren't going to be selling.

Worst case they are 3-4 through 7 games, with a semi difficult stretch pending after that. Based on the schedule it feels like they will muddle around .500 for a while. At 3-4 I can't get behind selling.

Schedule after Dallas and the Jets:
@ LAC
@ CAR
vs CLE
@ ATL

Each of these four are winnable games, but given that three are on the road, I think best case they go 3-1, and most likely 2-2. Assuming they lose to Dallas and beat the Jets, this puts them at 5-6.

Next stretch:
vs TEN
@ BUF
BYE
@ IND
vs BUF

They obviously won't sweep Buffalo. Tennessee doesn't look great but has given the Pats a lot of problems the past few years. Indy is not particularly good but it's a road game. Again, I think we are looking at 2-2 and 7-8 at this point.

And then finally:
vs JAX
@ MIA

Who knows about the Miami game. I feel like we're looking at a 9-8 season, and would need 1-2 very good wins to become a 10 or 11 win team and make the playoffs. But I don't think that would convince BB to be a seller. They didn't sell last year when they were clearly worse.
 
Last edited:

Bowhemian

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2015
3,740
Bow, NH
I honestly don't think DMac is a trade candidate. I fully expect him to retire after this season (he is 34 years old), or possibly return on a 1 year deal. I feel that BB has too much respect for him to trade him. Yes, BB likes to get value for players before they go away for nothing, but I don't think that will happen with DMac.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
13,246
Doubtful on Jackson as I think he’ll be resigned.
I see JC Jackson as being a #1 corner, and such players are not always easy to come by. Tanking is not in Belichick's blood, and he did not sign players to tank this season. So I think Jackson is a target for them to resign. They may not succeed at resigning him, and if the return is high enough, he could still get traded. All I know for sure is I'll be disappointed if he is traded for a 4th rounder.
 
Last edited:

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
72,226
Oregon
I don't know the answer off-hand, but how many players does a single team ever trade during a deadline? One? Sometimes two?
 

54thMA

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2012
8,668
Westwood MA
Doubtful on Jackson as I think he’ll be resigned.
About a week or so ago Breer on one of the nightly sports talk shows in the Boston market said the cornerback free agent market is not going to be very strong in 2022 and he thinks Jackson is in a prime position to have a team pay him like a #1 although in his eyes, he's a #2.

Not sure about that, but regardless, he's going to get paid by someone

Whether or not that is the Patriots remains to be seen; he did not think it would be them, but again, we'll see.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
50,341
deep inside Guido territory
In the ongoing offense discussion,
I would have to expect the Pats to be trade-deadline sellers this year, not buyers.
Who are the players who we might see getting shipped out and is there anyone potentially outgoing who would yield anything more than a late-round pick?
According to spotrac, the Pats are sitting on $14.5M in cap space so we shoudl have room to absorb some dead-cap hits if necessary.
It seems to me that anyone who isn't signed past this year is an obvious target, but might not yield much of a return. Those whose contracts expire this year (listed in order of this year's cap figure):
  • Hightower
  • DMac
  • Phillps
  • JCJ
  • Slater
  • Karras
  • Bolden
  • King
  • Bentley
  • Langi
  • Davis
  • Meyers
  • Gunner
  • Jakob
  • Folk
Of those, who might have value to a playoff-bound team? In my mind, DMac, JCJ, Phillips, Folk, Meyers.

What do you all think this trade deadline might show?
The Pats are not sitting on $14.5 million in cap space. They cut Gilmore in part because they had $54,000 in cap space for the rest of the year and couldn't make basic practice squad callups or sign anybody off the free agent market. OverTheCap is a much better resource for this kind of stuff and they have the Pats with $6.5 million in current cap space.

They aren't going to trade any of the first 5 or 6 names on your list because it would send a terrible message to the rest of the team. Belichick isn't going to trade locker room leaders like Hightower, Slater, or McCourty. I would like to re-sign Phillips especially if McCourty retires. Meyers has been their best WR and is young so why are you giving up on him? JC Jackson is someone you take all the way to a tag-and-trade scenario at the worst case scenario. The rest of the guys on there are fungible and most likely nobody is giving up a draft pick to get someone like Langi, Johnson, or Brandon King.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
22,991
[
The Pats are not sitting on $14.5 million in cap space. They cut Gilmore in part because they had $54,000 in cap space for the rest of the year and couldn't make basic practice squad callups or sign anybody off the free agent market. OverTheCap is a much better resource for this kind of stuff and they have the Pats with $6.5 million in current cap space.

They aren't going to trade any of the first 5 or 6 names on your list because it would send a terrible message to the rest of the team. Belichick isn't going to trade locker room leaders like Hightower, Slater, or McCourty. I would like to re-sign Phillips especially if McCourty retires. Meyers has been their best WR and is young so why are you giving up on him? JC Jackson is someone you take all the way to a tag-and-trade scenario at the worst case scenario. The rest of the guys on there are fungible and most likely nobody is giving up a draft pick to get someone like Langi, Johnson, or Brandon King.
I don't think Bill thinks that way at all, he;s traded respected vets all the time, and he doesn't care about the message it sends, if there has been one constant with Bellichick throughout, it's that he makes the moves he thinks are best for the team, even if that isn't clear to anyone else. If Bill thinks that trading McCourty is better for the team than keeping him, he'd trade him, same with Hightower.
Though also, what is the message it sends? That Bill is willing to move on from anyone if he thinks it is best for the team? I mean that's the message he's been sending for 20+ years, that no matter who you are, if he thinks he can get something better for the team you're gone (see.. Jones, Chandler, Moss, Mankins, etc.) or even just if you want more money than he thinks you're worth.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
50,341
deep inside Guido territory
[


I don't think Bill thinks that way at all, he;s traded respected vets all the time, and he doesn't care about the message it sends, if there has been one constant with Bellichick throughout, it's that he makes the moves he thinks are best for the team, even if that isn't clear to anyone else. If Bill thinks that trading McCourty is better for the team than keeping him, he'd trade him, same with Hightower.
Though also, what is the message it sends? That Bill is willing to move on from anyone if he thinks it is best for the team? I mean that's the message he's been sending for 20+ years, that no matter who you are, if he thinks he can get something better for the team you're gone (see.. Jones, Chandler, Moss, Mankins, etc.) or even just if you want more money than he thinks you're worth.
Randy Moss was a malcontent at the time as was Jamie Collins at the time he was traded. Jones was traded in the offseason because they didn't want to pay him. Mankins was traded in training camp for that reason and had Shaq Mason to step in. Bill Belichick is not going to actively tank by trading away core players mid-season like what is on top of that list unless some team blows him away or they have a younger player they want to see get more playing time. If they're in the playoff race at the deadline, why would you be subtracting instead of trying to find ways to add?
 

Big McCorkle

Member
SoSH Member
May 9, 2021
213
I'm pretty sure Jackson and Meyers are the only players on that list that might or would, respectively, get back a Day-2 pick as a return.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
30,180
Don't most NFL front offices shy away from trading to bring in players mid-season? BB is kind of an exception in this regard.

Patriots may soon have some benched OL to trade away, but they won't fetch much I'd imagine.
 

jsinger121

@jsinger121
SoSH Member
Randy Moss was a malcontent at the time as was Jamie Collins at the time he was traded. Jones was traded in the offseason because they didn't want to pay him. Mankins was traded in training camp for that reason and had Shaq Mason to step in. Bill Belichick is not going to actively tank by trading away core players mid-season like what is on top of that list unless some team blows him away or they have a younger player they want to see get more playing time. If they're in the playoff race at the deadline, why would you be subtracting instead of trying to find ways to add?
Honestly why would you give up any draft capital to add this team at the deadline? This isn’t a super bowl team or likely even a playoff team.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
22,991
Randy Moss was a malcontent at the time as was Jamie Collins at the time he was traded. Jones was traded in the offseason because they didn't want to pay him. Mankins was traded in training camp for that reason and had Shaq Mason to step in. Bill Belichick is not going to actively tank by trading away core players mid-season like what is on top of that list unless some team blows him away or they have a younger player they want to see get more playing time. If they're in the playoff race at the deadline, why would you be subtracting instead of trying to find ways to add?
Depends on how you're handling things. Hightower or DMac or Phillips could well be more useful to someone else than us, and bring back a player who would help us, or clear space for one same with a number of guys on that list. Trading doesn't necessarily mean tanking. Though also, I think Bill is more of a longterm thinker than many give him credit for.. The Collins trade was one of trading a useful player on a real contender, because they didn't want to pay him, and thought that what they got back was worth more than the downgrade. I would not be shocked for that to be the case this year, there are a lot of guys on that list that Bill may not want to bring back at their likely cost. If he gets an attractive offer for one, I have little doubt he'd pull the trigger, it's very much his M.O., just as I wouldn't be surprised to see him scoop up a guy with multiple years left that he thinks is undervalued.

I certainly don't think "ooh we could make the wildcard with a flawed team" is going to stop him.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
37,462
Hartford, CT
Honestly why would you give up any draft capital to add this team at the deadline? This isn’t a super bowl team or likely even a playoff team.
This seems to assume that the player would have an expiring contract and little chance of re-signing with the team. As we have seen, mid-season trades for players with multiple years remaining on their contracts can and do occur.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
50,341
deep inside Guido territory
Depends on how you're handling things. Hightower or DMac or Phillips could well be more useful to someone else than us, and bring back a player who would help us, or clear space for one same with a number of guys on that list. Trading doesn't necessarily mean tanking. Though also, I think Bill is more of a longterm thinker than many give him credit for.. The Collins trade was one of trading a useful player on a real contender, because they didn't want to pay him, and thought that what they got back was worth more than the downgrade. I would not be shocked for that to be the case this year, there are a lot of guys on that list that Bill may not want to bring back at their likely cost. If he gets an attractive offer for one, I have little doubt he'd pull the trigger, it's very much his M.O., just as I wouldn't be surprised to see him scoop up a guy with multiple years left that he thinks is undervalued.

I certainly don't think "ooh we could make the wildcard with a flawed team" is going to stop him.
Last year they were 2-5 and they didn't trade off assets like Gilmore or Joe Thuney. I would expect the same this time around too.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
22,991
Last year they were 2-5 and they didn't trade off assets like Gilmore or Joe Thuney. I would expect the same this time around too.
Because nobody met the valuation on Gilmore. They shopped him pretty hard by most accounts. I don't expect a trade, because trades are rare in the NFL, but I certianly don't buy that Bill wouldn't trade vets because of "the message it sends". He's always been way too cold-blooded for that.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I don't think they would be tearing the team down to trade any player who might walk in this upcoming offseason.

Before the deadline, they have three more games:
  • DAL
  • NYJ
  • @LAC
I think the most likely positive view from here is that they get to the deadline at 4-4. The most likely negative view is they get there at 3-5. (I doubt they win 3 or lose 3 of these next 3 games.)

From there until the end of the season, I see one games (JAX) where they will likely be favored (and @Atl and @indy might not be more than a point or two). There are likely a few toss-up type games (CLE, @Atl, @indy, and @Mia). The rest (@Car, TEN, BUF and @Buf) where they will likely be decent underdogs. So maybe 4 wins likely, with 5 or 6 at the high end.

To me, that puts them around 9-8, give or take a game, especially if they get to the deadline 4-4. Does that put them in the wild card hunt? Maybe.
OTOH, if they are sitting 3-5 at the deadline, I don't see how you can realistically look at the last 9 games and say "This team needs to be buying!"
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
22,991
I would also say... there are plenty of guys on that list who make sense to trade if you can get decent return. However, I think other teams won't offer much for the same reasons we would be happy to get a return on them. Like Hightower and McCourty... how interested are teams in a 34 year old safety having a down year on an expiring deal, how about a 31 LB who didn't play last year and has borerline speed left?

The guys likely to have real trade value are guys you want to keep long term, the guys who you probably aren't keeping long term have little value in the market.
Still, if KC comes calling on Devin I'd expect Bill to at least have a conversation on it.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
50,341
deep inside Guido territory
I would also say... there are plenty of guys on that list who make sense to trade if you can get decent return. However, I think other teams won't offer much for the same reasons we would be happy to get a return on them. Like Hightower and McCourty... how interested are teams in a 34 year old safety having a down year on an expiring deal, how about a 31 LB who didn't play last year and has borerline speed left?

The guys likely to have real trade value are guys you want to keep long term, the guys who you probably aren't keeping long term have little value in the market.
Still, if KC comes calling on Devin I'd expect Bill to at least have a conversation on it.
If KC gives you a 2nd round pick for McCourty, I'll drive him to the airport. But, I don't think that's the case. I'm only trading guys like that for a ridiculous return. I think Belichick would approach it similarly. Also, there really isn't that much movement at the NFL trade deadline anyways. It's not like the MLB trade deadline where there's crazy player movement across the board.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
8,501
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Teams are rarely "sellers" at the deadline because more often than not it's a bad time to get the most value for your assets. It's extremely hard to come into a new team midseason and produce right away for any position other than running back and the buyers are accounting for that. It's not baseball. The Pats should do what they've always done at the deadline: find talented young players who have been underperforming/have manageable off field issues for low draft pick compensation.
 

Eddie Jurak

Go Leafs Go
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
32,418
Melrose, MA
I see JC Jackson as being a #1 corner, and such players are not always easy to come by. Tanking is not in Belichick's blood, and he did not sign players to tank this season. So I think Jackson is a target for them to resign. They may not succeed at resigning him, and if the return is high enough, he could still get traded. All I know for sure is I'll be disappointed if he is traded for a 4th rounder.
The Patriots are going to have to pay him or trade him to avoid losing him. Hopefully they will opt for the former.
 

Bleedred

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 21, 2001
8,440
Boston, MA
Based on the schedule it feels like they will muddle around .500 for a while. At 3-4 I can't get behind selling.

Schedule after Dallas and the Jets:
@ LAC
@ CAR
vs CLE
@ ATL

Each of these four are winnable games, but given that three are on the road, I think best case they go 3-1, and most likely 2-2. Assuming they lose to Dallas and beat the Jets, this puts them at 5-6.
A quibble if I may. I would say all of those games are loseable more than winnable, and in what universe is the game, at the Chargers, a "winnable" game? Obviously any game is winnable, as upsets happen, but I would imagine the pats will be close to a double digit underdog in L.A.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
22,991
A quibble if I may. I would say all of those games are loseable more than winnable, and in what universe is the game, at the Chargers, a "winnable" game? Obviously any game is winnable, as upsets happen, but I would imagine the pats will be close to a double digit underdog in L.A.
Yeah, the Patriots are going to be favored in....1 of those games (@ATL) maybe and significant dogs in 2 of them (@LAC, CLE).
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
28,263
Hingham, MA
A quibble if I may. I would say all of those games are loseable more than winnable, and in what universe is the game, at the Chargers, a "winnable" game? Obviously any game is winnable, as upsets happen, but I would imagine the pats will be close to a double digit underdog in L.A.
Still not sure what to make of either the Pats or the Chargers. I think both are better than last year. But the Pats won there just last year - 45-0 no less.
 

Bleedred

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 21, 2001
8,440
Boston, MA
Still not sure what to make of either the Pats or the Chargers. I think both are better than last year. But the Pats won there just last year - 45-0 no less.
The Chargers are 4-1 with victories over the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns (the Chiefs game was in KC). They lost to Dallas 20-17. They are much much better than the Patriots right now
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,476
Dallas
Chargers also have a new head coach. Right now they are dogs in 3/4: +6.5 at LAC, +2.5 vs CLE, +2 at Car and -1.5 at ATL. So figure they win 1-2 of those games.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,476
Dallas
Still not sure what to make of either the Pats or the Chargers. I think both are better than last year. But the Pats won there just last year - 45-0 no less.
I have a good read on them. They are a top 10 team in the NFL and have dynamic receiving weapons, an OL that can pass protect minus at RT, and a QB in Herbert who looks like he could be an MVP candidate each year.
On defense they play a ton of 2 high and they have rangy ball hawking DBs. They are very good against the pass but have some issues vs the run and their LBs are meh.
If the Pats had a functional running game I’d say it might be a close one but given the state of their OL I don’t think the Pats stand a chance. Any given Sunday and what not but the Chargers are a top 10 team in the NFL and the Patriots are not.
 
Apr 24, 2019
839
re: Phillips - I think nobody would give us close to the value he has to this team. He is one of the very, very few defensive players I feel confident deserves an extension and will play a part in the next Patriots legit playoff team in, say, 2023. He has been an excellent addition and the kind of FA signing that has become sadly, increasingly rare in Foxborough lately - buys in, loves the culture, took to the system from the jump. I love him.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
22,991
Still not sure what to make of either the Pats or the Chargers. I think both are better than last year. But the Pats won there just last year - 45-0 no less.
I don't think that is very useful as a data point.
The Chargers have a new coach and new coordinators.
On defense of the 13 players getting more than 45% of snaps this year only 6 played in last year's matchup.
The LAC kicker missed a FG and had 1 blocked for a TD... he's gone.
The Patriots also got a PR TD.

On offense the Patriots were lead by Cam Newton who had 2 rushing TDs and a passing TD, and had 14 carries, 10 more carries from Sony, and the Patriots will be returning at most 4 offensive starters.

The Chargers had a rookie QB, and an almost entirely different O-Line (1 returning starter).

The teams are wildly different, and LAC are a lot better.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,476
Dallas
Listen to Phil Perry’s pod Next Pats if you get the chance. The team believes in not tanking and/or selling off assets at the deadline unless they get exceptional value for them. I don’t see how this year will be any different. They can’t tank anyway with the investments they just made in FA and a rookie QB. If anything they probably acquire a depth DB, maybe someone who can play outside because my friends Joejuan Williams is a bust. I was wrong on him coming out. Thought he would make a nice bigger CB to play guys like AJ Brown. He couldn’t cover Charlie Brown. With Shaun Wade also not practicing and new to the team anyway they don’t have any good outside options minus Mills and JCJ. Jon Jones and Bryant are slots or safeties and not guys you want in press-man outside.
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
3,875
NH
Joejuan Williams is one of the 2-3 worst picks of the entire era. I'll never understand how Bill looks at that 2018 team and thinks defensive back is the need. Throw a dart at the 2nd and 3rd rounds from that year, is there a single player you'd take Williams over? Ugh.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,476
Dallas
Joejuan Williams is one of the 2-3 worst picks of the entire era. I'll never understand how Bill looks at that 2018 team and thinks defensive back is the need. Throw a dart at the 2nd and 3rd rounds from that year, is there a single player you'd take Williams over? Ugh.
I think Bill saw an increase in the amount of Big WRs and TEs lining up out wide and receiving in general and wanted a big WR and TE eraser. Joejuan had good CODs. He shut down AJ Brown in college. He had a lot of risk to him but was a size threat at Corner. Brandon Browner was a fit here too. It didn’t work out and I wouldn’t have taken him that high but the rumor was Bill might have even made him the pick at 32 if Harry wasn’t there. They went for some size/athlete picks and both busted.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Want: Trade everything that's not pinned down.

Reality: Nothing will happen.
Obviously there are guys who are untradeable because no other team will give us anything for them (sadly, we have too many of those), but who are the guys that are off-limits because the Pats like them so much. Sadly, a much shorter list.
  • Mac
  • Harris
  • Rham
  • Barmore
  • Judon
  • Onwenu
  • Andrews
  • Dugger