Patrick Mahomes: Next Generation Brady?

[BaseballJones]

Ok, so obviously everyone here (nearly everyone anyway) loves and deeply respects Tom Brady the QB. I'd say that around the NFL, the overwhelming consensus (some dissenters, but not many) is that Brady is the greatest QB ever to play the game.

And now we have Patrick Mahomes, as the Chiefs are gunning for an unprecedented three-peat. Now Mahomes has been in the NFL for 7 years, playing essentially 6 (sat his first year). Over those who 7 seasons, here's what he's done:

- 3 SB titles
- 4 SB appearances
- 6 AFCCG appearances
- 74-22 regular season record (.770)
- 2x NFL MVP
- 3x SB MVP
- 2x all-pro
- 6x pro bowl
- 103.5 career passer rating

Even adjusting for the era in which they've played, Mahomes' resumé is actually more impressive than Brady's through their first 6 (7, technically) years. More individual awards and accomplishments. More team accomplishments (same # of Lombardis, but more everything else).

So the question is: what does Mahomes need to do to surpass Brady in the GOAT conversation? Does he have to pass Brady in Lombardis? Brady obviously played a very long time and it will be difficult (not impossible, but difficult) for Mahomes to pass Brady's career numbers due to the length of Brady's career. And also, Brady has the important 2-0 record in the playoffs against Mahomes: 37-31 over Mahomes in the AFCCG and 31-9 over Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Since Brady is retired, there's nothing Mahomes can do about that head-to-head record.

So, trying to be objective, Pats fans, what does Mahomes need to do to pass Brady in the GOAT rankings?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

So, trying to be objective, Pats fans, what does Mahomes need to do to pass Brady in the GOAT rankings?

Win at least 3 more Super Bowls, while putting up historic numbers.

That's it. Otherwise, he's not in the conversation with Brady, IMO. And as his cap hit balloons (it's at 37mil this season, or 14.5% of the cap) to over 65mil per year and 20-25% of the team's cap, it'll be even harder to put talent around him on both sides of the ball that will be needed to compete.

Of course, as long as his bad throws keep bouncing off defenders hands and helmets at ludicrous rates, he could easily pass Brady.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

After his kneecap literally popped completely out of place in 2019 yet he only missed like two games, I’m not betting against his trajectory. But who knows if he wants to play, even granting great health, the almost 20 years it’ll take to match/exceed Brady’s resume.

 

[Tim Salmon]

Ok, so obviously everyone here (nearly everyone anyway) loves and deeply respects Tom Brady the QB. I'd say that around the NFL, the overwhelming consensus (some dissenters, but not many) is that Brady is the greatest QB ever to play the game.

And now we have Patrick Mahomes, as the Chiefs are gunning for an unprecedented three-peat. Now Mahomes has been in the NFL for 7 years, playing essentially 6 (sat his first year). Over those who 7 seasons, here's what he's done:

- 3 SB titles
- 4 SB appearances
- 6 AFCCG appearances
- 74-22 regular season record (.770)
- 2x NFL MVP
- 3x SB MVP
- 2x all-pro
- 6x pro bowl
- 103.5 career passer rating

Even adjusting for the era in which they've played, Mahomes' resumé is actually more impressive than Brady's through their first 6 (7, technically) years. More individual awards and accomplishments. More team accomplishments (same # of Lombardis, but more everything else).

So the question is: what does Mahomes need to do to surpass Brady in the GOAT conversation? Does he have to pass Brady in Lombardis? Brady obviously played a very long time and it will be difficult (not impossible, but difficult) for Mahomes to pass Brady's career numbers due to the length of Brady's career. And also, Brady has the important 2-0 record in the playoffs against Mahomes: 37-31 over Mahomes in the AFCCG and 31-9 over Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Since Brady is retired, there's nothing Mahomes can do about that head-to-head record.

So, trying to be objective, Pats fans, what does Mahomes need to do to pass Brady in the GOAT rankings?

For me, Mahomes probably needs to play at a very high level for at least 10 more years to pile up some of the counting stats. If Mahomes quickly racks up a couple more Super Bowl titles but tails off in his mid-30s, then I'd view them in separate classes of GOAT. Mahomes would get all due credit for efficiently stockpiling trophies and accolades during a shorter period (burning brightest but fading quickly, like a supernova), while Brady would still be unmatched for his longevity and sustained excellence across generations of quarterbacks (burning bright and steady, like a red supergiant). Mahomes doesn't need to match Brady's Super Bowl total to be considered the best/most efficient/most dominant if he does it in a short window; I'll arbitrarily set the number at 5.

If Mahomes stays the current course but is done by 37, I wouldn't fault him for not matching Brady's regular-season numbers. But Brady would still be in any greatest-ever conversation because of what he accomplished in the last 10 years, when he could have been playing pickleball. Bonus points for getting one in Tampa Bay.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Win at least 3 more Super Bowls, while putting up historic numbers.

That's it. Otherwise, he's not in the conversation with Brady, IMO. And as his cap hit balloons (it's at 37mil this season, or 14.5% of the cap) to over 65mil per year and 20-25% of the team's cap, it'll be even harder to put talent around him on both sides of the ball that will be needed to compete.

Of course, as long as his bad throws keep bouncing off defenders hands and helmets at ludicrous rates, he could easily pass Brady.

I know I'm going to be in the minority here but I've always hated that QBs are judged primarily by rings. Yes, they're the most important player on the team and they can impact the game more than any other position. But it still takes a great team to win a ring. If one wants to make it simply a contest about rings, that's fine and then obviously Brady is the best. I think more thought should be put into it and the players should be judged based on their talent, performance, stats, etc. There are too many QBs over the years who have been helped a ton by the players around them, and there are just as many who have been hurt by them. I don't understand why these circumstances shouldn't factor into the analysis.

I'll stand over in the corner now while a bunch of people tell me how wrong I am.

 

[Reverend]

I know most of us don’t like thinking about it, but Brady popping off down to Tampa Bay and promptly winning the Super Bowl when he was over 40 was baller as fuck. Are there many good comps to that in any sport?

 

[Euclis20]

I'm fully prepared for a lot of people trying to parse "GOAT" vs "Best ever" in this debate (essentially best career vs highest peak performance).

Mahomes is 30-50% of the way through his prime, yet it's kind of shocking how close he already is to being above Brady (if he had beaten Brady in their two playoff matchups they'd likely be tied in super bowls, with plenty of time for him to pass Brady in wins and counting stats). Mahomes is 15-1 in the playoffs when not facing off against Brady. It's far from a given that he passes Brady in anything (everyone here knows that Brady was the greatest winner in NFL history, and no one here forgets that he spent 9 years in his absolute prime without a super bowl win), but at some point the only hope is that he gets a true rival or two. It's astonishing to look back and remember that Brady lost 3 AFC titles games to Peyton and 2 super bowls to Eli. He spent the 2nd half of his career with Rodgers right on his heels, then Mahomes at the very end. Mahomes has no one. Allen is too inconsistent, Burrow is too injured, Jackson is too useless in the playoffs. Maybe one of these guys takes a step forward, maybe someone in the younger generation gets to the top, but at this moment, the gap between Mahomes and whoever is 2nd best is far greater than it ever was during the Brady era.

 

[Kliq]

I feel like Brady was judged on rings, so it feels fair to judge Mahomes on rings, especially because he has spent his career so far in a very competitive situation with a robust supporting cast and excellent coaching.

That being said, I find conversations like this kind of toxic--and people get really defensive about their favorites and it becomes this existential doom where Pats fans become concerned with Mahomes padding his resume to drift closer to Brady, which will somehow hurt all the memories of Brady's success.

The thing about Mahomes at the moment is how far ahead he is regarded compared to his peers. Lamar Jackson has won two MVPs, including the most recent MVP, and nobody even considers him for a second as the best QB in the league.

 

[Reverend]

I feel like Brady was judged on rings, so it feels fair to judge Mahomes on rings, especially because he has spent his career so far in a very competitive situation with a robust supporting cast and excellent coaching.

That being said, I find conversations like this kind of toxic--and people get really defensive about their favorites and it becomes this existential doom where Pats fans become concerned with Mahomes padding his resume to drift closer to Brady, which will somehow hurt all the memories of Brady's success.

The thing about Mahomes at the moment is how far ahead he is regarded compared to his peers. Lamar Jackson has won two MVPs, including the most recent MVP, and nobody even considers him for a second as the best QB in the league.

Brady couldn’t have won without Belichick.

Come at me, bro!!

 

[Van Everyman]

How does the fact that the NFL is now a completely quarterback-driven league change the equation?

Does it make Mahomes look better that he has to do it all by himself, but the rules are all completely focused on him and his success?

Or does it make Brady look better because he played in an era where the quarterback wasn’t the focal point of the league and yet they still won all the time?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I know I'm going to be in the minority here but I've always hated that QBs are judged primarily by rings. Yes, they're the most important player on the team and they can impact the game more than any other position. But it still takes a great team to win a ring. If one wants to make it simply a contest about rings, that's fine and then obviously Brady is the best. I think more thought should be put into it and the players should be judged based on their talent, performance, stats, etc. There are too many QBs over the years who have been helped a ton by the players around them, and there are just as many who have been hurt by them. I don't understand why these circumstances shouldn't factor into the analysis.

I'll stand over in the corner now while a bunch of people tell me how wrong I am.

You need an objective measure to judge things, and in this case, when you have one guy with 7 rings, and the next closest guy with 4, and one guy with 10 SB appearances, and the next closest guy with 4, I think you have to start at rings. As I said earlier, if Mahomes gets 3 more, maybe even 2, while putting up historic numbers, I could see the argument as the GOAT. I wouldn't buy it personally, because to me, Brady's longevity has to matter. If Mahomes stuffs a 20 year career in between his first and last super bowl wins, more power to him.

But if we're going to use other objective measures, aside from counting stats (which would put Drew Brees second behind Brady), what can we use? Aaron Rodgers has a career QB passer rating of 103.6 to Brady's 97.2. He's got 4 MVP's to Brady's 3. Rodgers has only had more than 8 interceptions in a season 3 times in 15 full seasons (where he played full time). Brady threw more than 8 in each of his first 6 seasons, and 14 times in his career. By every objective measure besides playoff success, Aaron Rodgers is better than Tom Brady.

Wins simply matter, and Brady did it with loaded teams, not loaded teams (fucker started that 2019 season 8-0 which is insane), etc. Like Mahomes, he had great coaching too, but at the end of the day, I'm not putting Lebron above Jordan even with the longevity, because he can't get over the final hump, but I'm certainly not going to put Havlicek over Jordan either simply because he has 2 more rings than Jordan.

 

[cornwalls@6]

I know I'm going to be in the minority here but I've always hated that QBs are judged primarily by rings. Yes, they're the most important player on the team and they can impact the game more than any other position. But it still takes a great team to win a ring. If one wants to make it simply a contest about rings, that's fine and then obviously Brady is the best. I think more thought should be put into it and the players should be judged based on their talent, performance, stats, etc. There are too many QBs over the years who have been helped a ton by the players around them, and there are just as many who have been hurt by them. I don't understand why these circumstances shouldn't factor into the analysis.

I'll stand over in the corner now while a bunch of people tell me how wrong I am.

I think you're right to a degree. If Rings were everything, Bradshaw would be in everyone's top 5. It's a combination metrics, playing at high level for a sustained period of time, and wining championships. Plural. PM is already on track to nail every metric, with the possible exception of playing long enough to match all of Bradys compiling stats. The things that may derail him are the cap issues, and inevitably losing Reid at some point. But it's hard for me to imagine him declining in any meaningful way, and ending his career as no worse than number 2 on any thinking persons list.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Brady couldn’t have won without Belichick.

Come at me, bro!!

Start at 9:50: (but definitely watch the whole thing if you guys haven't, it's worth it).

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bnd_K3dhRk

 

[Euclis20]

I think you're right to a degree. If Rings were everything, Bradshaw would be in everyone's top 5. It's a combination metrics, playing at high level for a sustained period of time, and wining championships. Plural. PM is already on track to nail every metric, with the possible exception of playing long enough to match all of Bradys compiling stats. The things that may derail him are the cap issues, and inevitably losing Reid at some point. But it's hard for me to imagine him declining in any meaningful way, and ending his career as no worse than number 2 on any thinking persons list.

Yeah I think Mahomes is already top 5 on most people's lists, even if he never wins another SB or MVP. Right now Brady has all of the team related measures of success (regular season wins, playoff wins, super appearances, super bowl wins) and all of the individual major counting stats (1st all-time in completions, yards and TDs, and miles ahead of everyone in playoff completions, yards and TDs). The rate stats and MVPs don't really move the needle either way (even the most casual of observers know that QBs today have spent their entire careers in a passing era unlike Brady which artificially boosts things like QB rating, and while MVPs are important, as noted above nobody puts Jackson even close to Mahomes even though he's got a pair of MVPs). Mahomes either has to be fairly close in super bowls (let's say 6-7 appearances and 5 wins) OR top 3 all-time in the major counting stats for his career to seriously compare to Brady's.

There will be plenty who say Mahomes had a higher peak (some are already saying as much), and I don't have a problem with that argument (just so long as those same people acknowledge that Gronk had the highest peak of any TE in history).

 

[luckiestman]

You need an objective measure to judge things

I disagree with this. "Greatness" is a subjective thing. What is objective is who has the most rings. I happen to favor Brady through my subjective ratings, but Mahomes has the potential to get damn close from what I have seen. It could go sideways.

There are a bunch of factors but what I try to imagine is if the only thing we were going to change is who is playing QB, what would happen? Like if Manning had been in Brady's spot would he have as many rings? I say no. If Brady was in Manning's spot would he have more rings than Manning got? I say yes. Same thing with Rodgers, Favre, etc. I think Brady wins more. He doesn't have a better highlight reel but the fucking guy is guile personified. Add in the longevity and it will be tough for someone to catch him.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Mahomes is in rarefied air already, but in order to match Brady, the hard part hasn't happened yet.

He doesn't need to match him in SB wins, but he needs a few more. And, like Brady, he's going to have to do it with a whole new set of actors. Despite winning the SB last year, Mahomes and the Chiefs were only 15th in PPG. That team had no business winning a title, but they got the breaks they needed.

(As a note, excluding Bradys final season - his 23rd - he only finished outside the top 10 in offense once, they ranked 12th in 2003).

Since drafting Tyreek Hill in 2016, the Chiefs have drafted 7 WRs and hit on none of them. To be fair, Rasheed Rice may turn into something, but we heard that about Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore, and I think it's driven more by Mahomes' reputation than anything else.

Travis Kelces yards per reception - 10.6 - was almost two full yards lower than he's ever had in his career. There's a very real possibility that, at 34 years old, the cliff is here.

So where does that leave Mahomes? 29 years old, leading an average offense (15th in PPG) that is losing its only reliable weapon (Kelce) due to age. And guess what happens next season? As noted, Mahomes contract balloons up to $66M, but Chris Jones goes on the books for $34-$41M dollars for the next four years. That means $100-$110M of a $260M salary cap (over 40%) are tied up in two players through 2028.

I'd also point out that by the time Brady was 29, he was married to Giselle and already restricting his diet, sleeping at specific temperatures, and doing flexibility exercises to extend his career. Patrick Mahomes at 29 just, "drinks until he can't drink anymore". And while he'll have 5 or 6 beers when playing golf, celebrity golf tournaments give him some adrenaline, which is good because “you can drink a couple extra beers that you wouldn’t usually have on the golf course".

That's all to say that I don't see him putting up MVP caliber seasons at 44 years old like Brady. I think it's more likely we see him putting up "hanging on for dear life" caliber seasons at 36 years old like Roethlisberger. In fact, I think Big Ben's career might end up being a pretty good parallel for Mahomes, albeit with a higher ceiling that what Ben accomplished.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Note to self: Find some way to play a round of golf with Patrick Mahomes.

 

[glennhoffmania]

You need an objective measure to judge things, and in this case, when you have one guy with 7 rings, and the next closest guy with 4, and one guy with 10 SB appearances, and the next closest guy with 4, I think you have to start at rings. As I said earlier, if Mahomes gets 3 more, maybe even 2, while putting up historic numbers, I could see the argument as the GOAT. I wouldn't buy it personally, because to me, Brady's longevity has to matter. If Mahomes stuffs a 20 year career in between his first and last super bowl wins, more power to him.

But if we're going to use other objective measures, aside from counting stats (which would put Drew Brees second behind Brady), what can we use? Aaron Rodgers has a career QB passer rating of 103.6 to Brady's 97.2. He's got 4 MVP's to Brady's 3. Rodgers has only had more than 8 interceptions in a season 3 times in 15 full seasons (where he played full time). Brady threw more than 8 in each of his first 6 seasons, and 14 times in his career. By every objective measure besides playoff success, Aaron Rodgers is better than Tom Brady.

Wins simply matter, and Brady did it with loaded teams, not loaded teams (fucker started that 2019 season 8-0 which is insane), etc. Like Mahomes, he had great coaching too, but at the end of the day, I'm not putting Lebron above Jordan even with the longevity, because he can't get over the final hump, but I'm certainly not going to put Havlicek over Jordan either simply because he has 2 more rings than Jordan.

Well you don't need an objective measure to judge things, but even if you did I don't agree that team accomplishments is the best metric.

I've had this argument probably 100 times over the last 20 years. I know that a lot of people agree with you and I get it. To me, football is the ultimate team sport that requires a lot of people to be successful, including both players and coaches. Not to mention there's some luck involved since one game can determine a whole season.

One of the best examples is Aikman. He was a solid QB but there is no universe in which he's one of the best despite the fact that he won three rings. He had an all world OL, great skill position players around him, some great defenses, and a great coach. That doesn't diminish his three titles since he certainly contributed. But is he better than every QB who won zero or one? Not a chance.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

And once Mahomes loses a step/mph his effectiveness will be greatly reduced. His running around left and right in the backfield will quickly turn into 15 yard sacks rather than miraculous 20 yard gains. His left handed behind-the-back tosses will turn into pick 6's rather than ESPN Top Plays. He does the "fake-step out of bounds and turn it upfield" thing one time too many and he'll be nursing a shoulder injury for weeks on end (irony of shoulder injury recognized).

 

[Reverend]

Start at 9:50: (but definitely watch the whole thing if you guys haven't, it's worth it).

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bnd_K3dhRk

It’s just so satisfying when someone in a situation like that knows and gives the correct answer.

 

[lexrageorge]

But if we're going to use other objective measures, aside from counting stats (which would put Drew Brees second behind Brady), what can we use? Aaron Rodgers has a career QB passer rating of 103.6 to Brady's 97.2. He's got 4 MVP's to Brady's 3. Rodgers has only had more than 8 interceptions in a season 3 times in 15 full seasons (where he played full time). Brady threw more than 8 in each of his first 6 seasons, and 14 times in his career. By every objective measure besides playoff success, Aaron Rodgers is better than Tom Brady.

I can find one objective measure that is different.

Aaron Rodgers when forced to throw 50+ passes in a game: 3 wins, 6 losses (all regular season)
Patrick Mahomes: 3-2, also all in regular season.
Drew Brees: 4-15 (0-2 in playoffs)

Tom Fucking "System QB" Brady: 25-14, 6-4 in playoffs.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I can find one objective measure that is different.

Aaron Rodgers when forced to throw 50+ passes in a game: 3 wins, 6 losses (all regular season)
Patrick Mahomes: 3-2, also all in regular season.
Drew Brees: 4-15 (0-2 in playoffs)

Tom Fucking "System QB" Brady: 25-14, 6-4 in playoffs.

You usually only throw 50+ passes in a game when you're playing from behind. So Tom Brady put his team in a hole a lot more than those other guys.

Of course, I don't believe that at all, but I'm sure some moron on Twitter might make that point. Obviously, everyone knows where I stand on Tom Brady.

But yeah, that's an objective measure besides playoff success that makes him the GOAT, so it's fair.

 

[j-man]

once kelecs silps its all over as peak mahomes only has 5 more years left after that he will not be able to move around as much

basiccy as long as they dont win it all this year u guys have nothing to worry about

IF nix is good peyton the coach will install bountygate 2.0 and in 2026 denver will have around 145 mil in cap space
harbaugh at the very worst will have LAC as a 9-10 win team
vegas is also a 500 team that is one mark davis death away from being a superpower if brady gets to own them

long story short KC has 2 years after 25 KC will fade away

 

[j-man]

After his kneecap literally popped completely out of place in 2019 yet he only missed like two games, I’m not betting against his trajectory. But who knows if he wants to play, even granting great health, the almost 20 years it’ll take to match/exceed Brady’s resume.

no shot at that he will be done by 2034 kelce 26 jones and reid will be done by 29

 

[j-man]

And once Mahomes loses a step/mph his effectiveness will be greatly reduced. His running around left and right in the backfield will quickly turn into 15 yard sacks rather than miraculous 20 yard gains. His left handed behind-the-back tosses will turn into pick 6's rather than ESPN Top Plays. He does the "fake-step out of bounds and turn it upfield" thing one time too many and he'll be nursing a shoulder injury for weeks on end (irony of shoulder injury recognized).

thank u u are 100% on point

 

[Ale Xander]

He's not even 1/3 of the way there in either passing yards or TD's. And the rings, no way.

 

[j-man]

Mahomes is in rarefied air already, but in order to match Brady, the hard part hasn't happened yet.

He doesn't need to match him in SB wins, but he needs a few more. And, like Brady, he's going to have to do it with a whole new set of actors. Despite winning the SB last year, Mahomes and the Chiefs were only 15th in PPG. That team had no business winning a title, but they got the breaks they needed.

(As a note, excluding Bradys final season - his 23rd - he only finished outside the top 10 in offense once, they ranked 12th in 2003).

Since drafting Tyreek Hill in 2016, the Chiefs have drafted 7 WRs and hit on none of them. To be fair, Rasheed Rice may turn into something, but we heard that about Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore, and I think it's driven more by Mahomes' reputation than anything else.

Travis Kelces yards per reception - 10.6 - was almost two full yards lower than he's ever had in his career. There's a very real possibility that, at 34 years old, the cliff is here.

So where does that leave Mahomes? 29 years old, leading an average offense (15th in PPG) that is losing its only reliable weapon (Kelce) due to age. And guess what happens next season? As noted, Mahomes contract balloons up to $66M, but Chris Jones goes on the books for $34-$41M dollars for the next four years. That means $100-$110M of a $260M salary cap (over 40%) are tied up in two players through 2028.

I'd also point out that by the time Brady was 29, he was married to Giselle and already restricting his diet, sleeping at specific temperatures, and doing flexibility exercises to extend his career. Patrick Mahomes at 29 just, "drinks until he can't drink anymore". And while he'll have 5 or 6 beers when playing golf, celebrity golf tournaments give him some adrenaline, which is good because “you can drink a couple extra beers that you wouldn’t usually have on the golf course".

That's all to say that I don't see him putting up MVP caliber seasons at 44 years old like Brady. I think it's more likely we see him putting up "hanging on for dear life" caliber seasons at 36 years old like Roethlisberger. In fact, I think Big Ben's career might end up being a pretty good parallel for Mahomes, albeit with a higher ceiling that what Ben accomplished.

mahomes will be hanging starting after reid leavs because nagy or peteteson will replace him and that will lose 3-4 ex games

 

[cornwalls@6]

Whoops. Wrong thread

 

[InstaFace]

As long as he keeps getting infuriatingly lucky like tonight's denouement, he might as well win the next 5 goddamn titles in a row.

Fuck.

 

[SMU_Sox]

There are two types of QBs: bakers and chefs. Brady was the GOAT baker. Mahomes is either the GOAT chef or damn close to it (I think he already is).

 

[SMU_Sox]

I should note that today’s rules favor chefs.

 

[Silverdude2167]

I fall back on the same thought for both Brady vs. Mahomes and the Chiefs vs. the Pats.

This doesn't have to be some type of different eras exercise.

Brady vs. Mahomes and Chiefs vs. Pats happened, and Brady and the Pats won when it mattered.
So I don't really think you can make a case that either Mahomes or the Cheifs can ever surpass Brady or the Pats.

 

[naclone]

There are two types of QBs: bakers and chefs. Brady was the GOAT baker. Mahomes is either the GOAT chef or damn close to it (I think he already is).

Great googly moogly.

 

[Mike Thomas 802]

I don't think Mahomes could have pulled off the 28-3 comeback. That was surgical precision while walking on a tightrope. Running around ad-libbing wouldn't get it done.

I also don't think Patrick Mahomes led teams would lose twice to Eli fucking Manning.

I think chefs and bakers is a great analogy.

 

[Garshaparra]

He's not even 1/3 of the way there in either passing yards or TD's. And the rings, no way.

Is it possible for Mahomes to eclipse Brady's counting stats? Yes, but I'd give him less than a 40% chance, purely based on the luck it requires to stay healthy for so long.

Brady's career is an outlier in all respects, with 19 seasons out of 23 played that featured both above-average play, AND playing the entire season. He has the redshirt '00, 22nd ranked in '01, injury in '08, and the 4-game suspension in '16). Others for comparison:

Brees - 16 out of 20. 1 redshirt year, 3 seasons with games lost to injury. He's second all time in yards thanks to several enormous yardage seasons.
Manning - 16 out of 17, fantastically successful overall, but 3 fewer above-average seasons.
Favre - 18 out of 20, again, very successful, but playing half of those seasons pre-00's lowered his yardage average
Rodgers - 13 out of 19. 3 seasons with many games lost to injury, and 3 redshirt years.
Marino - 13 out of 17. A semi-redshirt first year, a couple of seasons with injuries, and the strike season in '87.

Mahomes is at 6 out of 7, with the one redshirt year, so ahead of pace for all but Manning. He's gotta repeat this success for 13 of the next 16 years, or maybe only 12 of 15, as those 17th games will start to add up. It's still an exceptionally long time for a guy to stay upright. I do definitely believe it's possible.

 

[NobodyInteresting]

So where does that leave Mahomes? 29 years old, leading an average offense (15th in PPG) that is losing its only reliable weapon (Kelce) due to age. And guess what happens next season? As noted, Mahomes contract balloons up to $66M, but Chris Jones goes on the books for $34-$41M dollars for the next four years. That means $100-$110M of a $260M salary cap (over 40%) are tied up in two players through 2028.

Unfortunately I think those of us waiting for the cap crunch to hit are going to have to wait a little longer. He's extremely unlikely to be playing on a cap hit of $66m next year, and one of the (for me) most frustrating trends in the NFL of recent years is how void years allow teams to push back cap hits. I'd expect the Chiefs have at least another three years of cheap(ish) Mahomes at this point, and the longer he keeps being Mahomes, the longer they can reasonably delay the cost by extending him.

It's also the case that (a) QB salaries have grown enormously, so that Mahomes is actually not all that expensive any more and (b) the top end of QB salaries haven't accelerated the same way the upper middle class has, so where it used to be that the top QB might be on $20m and a good QB on $10-15m, now the top guys are on $55m and merely good guys are on $50m. I presume a new Mahomes contract goes significantly beyond $55m but it's not going to be double what the Tuas, Goffs, Loves and Lawrences are getting. Especially since he's shown no real desire to maximise earnings with his previous contracts, much like Brady.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Great googly moogly.

I LOL'd. Well done.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Mahomes may match or exceed Tom Brady, time will tell, but Mahomes made the Hall of Fame blunder of all blunders by marrying his atrocious high school sweetheart. He could be hanging out with Taylor Swift and Ice Spice ffs. Advantage, Tom.

 

[SMU_Sox]

When I think about greatness:

How great were they over the course of their career?
How great were they at their peak?
How long was their peak?
How long did they play?

I tend to care more about peak play vs longevity but for Brady he was at his peak or exceptional for 20 years. It's going to be hard for anyone to top that. Whose peak was better? Mahomes likely can't do this for as long as Brady but he is more physically talented.

Mahomes might not be quite as good in structure as Brady but he is worlds better out of structure. If the structure broke down Brady was not very effective minus incredible at avoiding sacks and turnovers. Brady though was able to manipulate coverages, defenses, and know which plays to check in and out of to get to an in-structure play that he could work better than probably anyone. That's something we don't tend to discuss when we discuss QBs and their play in structure vs out of structure. Can the QB alter the play so that the in-structure play won't easily break down or not have answers to what the defense is doing? Brady was a master of that too. That's pretty damn creative. In other words Brady had some chef traits too but in ways we don't traditionally think about when we think about archetypes.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Great googly moogly.

I LOL'd. Well done.

I want to lol too but I don't get it and when I googled those terms I got some... kids show creature? Explain it to me like I am 5 I guess (because kids show, #BigBen)?

 

[tims4wins]

I want to lol too but I don't get it and when I googled those terms I got some... kids show creature? Explain it to me like I am 5 I guess (because kids show, #BigBen)?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmgice3ieZ4&ab_channel=SnickersUK1

 

[bankshot1]

Unless Mahomes surpasses Brady with rings or stats (more likely given how the game has changed) Brady will always be #1 and Mahomes #1a, as Brady holds the 1st tiebreaker and always will.

My take: Mahomes can pass circles around Brady, but Brady was the better QB.

 

[Bowhemian]

This thread makes me throw up in my mouth. I don’t like Mahomes. I realize he is a great QB, but I don’t want to see anyone passing Brady, especially this guy.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

What’s crazy is that we’re having this discussion so soon after Brady retired. I think we all expected that at some point a QB or team would come along and try to outdo what Brady and the Pats did. I just figured it would be 20-30 years down the road.

 

[tims4wins]

What’s crazy is that we’re having this discussion so soon after Brady retired. I think we all expected that at some point a QB or team would come along and try to outdo what Brady and the Pats did. I just figured it would be 20-30 years down the road.

Imagine if Mahomes won in 2018 and/or 2020

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Brady whupped his ass in the Super Bowl, a game in which Mahomes didn't throw for a single touchdown, a game where he didn't cross 100 yards passing until the 3rd quarter, a game where they lost by 22 points.

Brady also beat him in Arrowhead in the AFCCG.

That just makes it all the harder for Mahomes to ever be considered the GOAT over the course of his career. He might still do it, but the bar is so much higher than anyone thinks.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Mahomes hasn't thrown for more than two TDs in a game since last Oct. 22(reg season). In five of the ten games he's thrown for only one TD, including last night. If you add in the playoffs he's thrown 1 TD or fewer in seven of 14 games.

He's a game manager™.

 

[Remagellan]

Brady whupped his ass in the Super Bowl, a game in which Mahomes didn't throw for a single touchdown, a game where he didn't cross 100 yards passing until the 3rd quarter, a game where they lost by 22 points.

Brady also beat him in Arrowhead in the AFCCG.

That just makes it all the harder for Mahomes to ever be considered the GOAT over the course of his career. He might still do it, but the bar is so much higher than anyone thinks.

Tom Brady had his ass handed to him by Mark Sanchez, Jake Plummer, and Nick Foles in playoff games. What a FRAUD!

(See how stupid it is to read too much into one or two playoff performances.)

I love Brady, but this petty jealousy over Mahomes' brilliance should be beneath us. We were graced to watch arguably the greatest QB in history lead our team on an incredible run. Now we get to watch another great in his prime. Enjoy it. Whatever Mahomes winds up doing in no way diminishes Brady's legacy, except in the minds of idiots who feel the need to rank everything. Brady was great. Montana was great. Unitas was great. (And on and on.) And Mahomes IS great. I just like watching the dude going about his business.

 

[tims4wins]

Tom Brady had his ass handed to him by Mark Sanchez, Jake Plummer, and Nick Foles in playoff games. What a FRAUD!

(See how stupid it is to read too much into one or two playoff performances.)

I love Brady, but this petty jealousy over Mahomes' brilliance should be beneath us. We were graced to watch arguably the greatest QB in history lead our team on an incredible run. Now we get to watch another great in his prime. Enjoy it. Whatever Mahomes winds up doing in no way diminishes Brady's legacy, except in the minds of idiots who feel the need to rank everything. Brady was great. Montana was great. Unitas was great. (And on and on.) And Mahomes IS great. I just like watching the dude going about his business.

Brady also ended with a losing career record in the playoffs to Peyton. 2-3. 2-5 against the Mannings in total. BARF.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Tom Brady had his ass handed to him by Mark Sanchez, Jake Plummer, and Nick Foles in playoff games. What a FRAUD!

(See how stupid it is to read too much into one or two playoff performances.)

I love Brady, but this petty jealousy over Mahomes' brilliance should be beneath us. We were graced to watch arguably the greatest QB in history lead our team on an incredible run. Now we get to watch another great in his prime. Enjoy it. Whatever Mahomes winds up doing in no way diminishes Brady's legacy, except in the minds of idiots who feel the need to rank everything. Brady was great. Montana was great. Unitas was great. (And on and on.) And Mahomes IS great. I just like watching the dude going about his business.

It's not petty jealousy, it's a point that will be brought up when Mahomes' GOAT status is considered and rightly or wrongly it's fair to note it.