Packers: Rodgers’ Chances of Returning to GB in Jeopardy!

Big McCorkle

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May 9, 2021
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He was also trending downward and definitely seemed to be in decline when the team chose to draft Love. Obviously, he had an incredible bounce back this season, but I think that drafting a QB at that point was totally defensible.
If I'm the Packers, I call his bluff. If he wants to retire, then retire. Because I don't think he has any real interest in retiring.
Rodgers's production over the several seasons leading up to the Packers trading up to draft Love was remarkably similar to Alex Smith's production and play over the several seasons leading up to the Chiefs trading up to draft Mahomes. Between 2015 and 2019, Rodgers posted an EPA/play of 0.157, ranking 13th in the NFL over the time, with a few absolute stinkers of a season thrown in there. In 2019 specifically, he came in at 0.144, still ranked 13th. Smith's tenure in Kansas City before Mahomes was drafted wasn't quite as good, with an 18th-ranked 0.113 EPA/play, but largely similar.

The Chiefs traded a third and an extra first rounder to move up to get Mahomes. The Packers exchanged a fourth rounder to grab Love. The following season, Alex Smith was one of the best QBs in the NFL; the following season, Rodgers was one of the best QBs in the NFL, and won MVP (while playing behind the league's best offensive line, as he has for most of his career, and throwing to receivers with on average the most yards of separation in the NFL). This isn't to say that Jordan Love is Patrick Mahomes, because, by all available evidence, no he ain't. However, when you have a roster like the Chiefs had, and like the Packers have, it's really pretty important not to waste a year basically waiting for the draft to roll around when you want or need to replace your starting QB for whatever reason.

Case and point: the 2020 New England Patriots. Their roster wasn't as good, of course, but having, say, Lamar Jackson ready to go would've been nice. And unless Mac Jones is able to be a contention-caliber QB as a rookie this year, which I don't think is impossible but not something I'd be happy to depend upon if my life or job were on the line, 2021 will be another transition year in the post-Brady era.

The situations are actually quite similar, and yet certain people act like the Packers FO made some horrendous decision when they decided to draft Love to both develop as an eventual replacement and to hedge against further immediate decline, as if they should've just been able to see the future and realize that Rodgers would dramatically improve his own play (in particular by not taking nearly as many sacks as he has throughout his career) and make the rookie-contract timeline for Love be not quite as easy to work with. And they also act like the Packers roster, which in particular had pretty much the league's best WR, CB, and LT (literally the three most important positions besides QB), and a bunch of quality players elsewhere, is some barren wasteland. It's ridiculous. It's really not the FO's fault that A-A-Ron repeatedly went three-and-out in the second half of the NFCCG.
 

pappymojo

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Jul 28, 2010
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Rodgers's production over the several seasons leading up to the Packers trading up to draft Love was remarkably similar to Alex Smith's production and play over the several seasons leading up to the Chiefs trading up to draft Mahomes. Between 2015 and 2019, Rodgers posted an EPA/play of 0.157, ranking 13th in the NFL over the time, with a few absolute stinkers of a season thrown in there. In 2019 specifically, he came in at 0.144, still ranked 13th. Smith's tenure in Kansas City before Mahomes was drafted wasn't quite as good, with an 18th-ranked 0.113 EPA/play, but largely similar.

The Chiefs traded a third and an extra first rounder to move up to get Mahomes. The Packers exchanged a fourth rounder to grab Love. The following season, Alex Smith was one of the best QBs in the NFL; the following season, Rodgers was one of the best QBs in the NFL, and won MVP (while playing behind the league's best offensive line, as he has for most of his career, and throwing to receivers with on average the most yards of separation in the NFL). This isn't to say that Jordan Love is Patrick Mahomes, because, by all available evidence, no he ain't. However, when you have a roster like the Chiefs had, and like the Packers have, it's really pretty important not to waste a year basically waiting for the draft to roll around when you want or need to replace your starting QB for whatever reason.

Case and point: the 2020 New England Patriots. Their roster wasn't as good, of course, but having, say, Lamar Jackson ready to go would've been nice. And unless Mac Jones is able to be a contention-caliber QB as a rookie this year, which I don't think is impossible but not something I'd be happy to depend upon if my life or job were on the line, 2021 will be another transition year in the post-Brady era.

The situations are actually quite similar, and yet certain people act like the Packers FO made some horrendous decision when they decided to draft Love to both develop as an eventual replacement and to hedge against further immediate decline, as if they should've just been able to see the future and realize that Rodgers would dramatically improve his own play (in particular by not taking nearly as many sacks as he has throughout his career) and make the rookie-contract timeline for Love be not quite as easy to work with. And they also act like the Packers roster, which in particular had pretty much the league's best WR, CB, and LT (literally the three most important positions besides QB), and a bunch of quality players elsewhere, is some barren wasteland. It's ridiculous. It's really not the FO's fault that A-A-Ron repeatedly went three-and-out in the second half of the NFCCG.
Interesting that you absolve the organization for all blame while also putting the blame for the playoff losses on Rodgers and Rodgers alone.
 

Big McCorkle

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Interesting that you absolve the organization for all blame while also putting the blame for the playoff losses on Rodgers and Rodgers alone.
I neither absolved the organization entirely nor pinned it all on Rodgers, just made a snide little jab at Rodgers's expense. But this the sort of the somewhat ridiculous narrative that goes around about the topic, talk of "absolution" and "blame," as if losing to Brady and the Bucs (or Shanahan's 49ers, or whatever) in the NFCCG is some grave crime that calls for heads to roll, or justifies some righteous anger on the part of Rodgers. The reality is that the Packers went 13-3, had really by far the best offense in the NFL by DVOA, and then had the unfortunate luck of losing the best offensive tackle in the NFL to a torn ACL and then, a little bit later, running into the buzzsaw that was Tom Brady and the late-season Bucs. And while Rodgers certainly could've played better, especially down the stretch, he still had overall a pretty decent game, and certainly did a whole helluva lot better against the Tampa defense than Mahomes managed in the Super Bowl. 2014 and 2016 were much worse performances than last year's, 2014 in particular absolutely being on him, what with the five turnovers generated in cooperation between the Packers defense and Russell Wilson. (In 2016, he played and the rest of the offense played like shit and the defense also got absolutely steamrolled by the Falcons, so everyone's gotta hang their heads in shame for that one. Still made the NFCCG, though, which is no small achievement.)

And in the reality we live in where the 2020 Packers were overall a championship-caliber team that ended up not winning the championship because there were other championship-caliber teams that they had to compete with. Which is what makes the idea of Rodgers having in any way been 'done wrong' or 'not given enough help' or any such thing just so laughable. Rodgers has been playing on one of the best rosters in the NFL for one of the best coaches in the NFL; what the fuck is there to complain about? He's not Lamar Jackson with no quality WRs to speak of until this offseason, he's not Ryan Tannehill playing behind a porous offensive line and a defense that ranks amongst the league's worst, he's not Russell Wilson stuck with a head coach dedicated to "establishing the run," and I really can't take the "No Input/Jordan Love" thing seriously, because A. they literally did the same thing with him and Favre, and B. well, what happens if you call Rodgers up and he says no, don't draft Love? Do you really let him make that decision? Hell no you don't.
 

SMU_Sox

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Trading up for Jordan Love instead of getting Laviska Shenault, Michael Pittman Jr., or Tee Higgins was a bad move. All of those guys would be complimentary to Adams. All of them contributed in year 1. They also could have gone RB instead of in the 2nd. They would have had their back of choice. Defensively they needed a safety to pair with Savage. X-man and Antoine Winfield jr. would have been fine picks there as well. Winfield and Savage would have given them a potentially elite pairing.

Love was a high risk high reward QB who struggled with making reads and decision making. Teams were all over the place on him. Some had him as a first or fringe first but many had him as a day 3 guy. There’s a reason he was available at 25. The past 2 years I think the Packers have had bad drafts. Arif Hassan’s analysis has the same conclusion. You typically don’t want to draft exclusively for need but if you have a glaring need and a guy fits the bill and is fair value for the spot I would argue make that pick (lots of factors like if there is a player you have highly graded at a less important spot for your 1-3 year roster for example). I don’t blame AR for being unhappy.

Packers also didn’t invest much in OL and are relying on position changes to materialize in good play. It could happen but risks there too. Taking Myers when so many good other OL were available was another bad choice as well. I realize I could be wrong here as he is a rookie but, again, going by Arif’s CBB which has proven to be one of the most reliable predictors for success it was an error.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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Schefter tweeting that Rodgers and Packers close to a deal that will bring him back for 2021 but allow him to leave after season.
 

E5 Yaz

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Schefter tweeting that Rodgers and Packers close to a deal that will bring him back for 2021 but allow him to leave after season.
Damn, Peter King found an acorn back in June