Outs from somewhere: the 2025 bullpen

[simplicio]

Some bullpen chatter has started in the Kenley thread, so let's give it a real shot. The pen looks like our greatest point of instability this winter, in terms of both turnover and quality. I'm interested in what direction you all think it's going.

Here's who's on the 40 man currently and controlled through next year (starred have options remaining):

Brennan Bernardino (L)
Cam Booser* (L)
Isaiah Campbell*
Cooper Criswell
Luis Guerrero*
Liam Hendriks
Bailey Horn* (L)
Zack Kelly*
Bryan Mata
Chris Murphy* (L)
Zach Penrod* (L)
Chase Shugart*
Justin Slaten*
Greg Weissert*
Garrett Whitlock*
Josh Winckowski*

Additionally, Michael Fulmer was pretty obviously acquired to rehab this year and join the club in 25.

We're losing Sims, Urias, Martin and Jansen. That's obviously most of our high leverage squad, though we should have Hendriks ready to step in by that point.

If I had to line up 8 guys from the above, I think it would look like:
Hendriks
Slaten
Whitlock
Guerrero
Bernardino
Booser
Winckowski
Criswell

But that Winck slot I could also see as Fulmer or Campbell or Penrod or Weissert, and who knows if they try to make Whitlock a starter again.

I see two potential holes with that picture. The big one is guys we actually trust to get a shutdown inning or put out a fire. I think that's Hendriks and Slaten and Whitlock, but are they enough? Is assuming Hendriks will still be elite foolish? Most of this year we had Kenley/Martin/Slaten operating at that level, but when the latter two went down at the same time our entire season collapsed. I think we seriously need a fourth high leverage guy. Now maybe that's Guerrero or Penrod or something (after all, Slaten was a genuine nobody before this year), but I'd really rather hit the FA market to be sure.

The second thing we're missing (related) is a higher lev lefty. Bernie and Booser have both significantly overperformed their backstories, but they make me nervous in spots where we need to get out really good hitters. Bernie also seems to wear down at times, and he'll be out of options so he can't just catch a breather in AAA anymore.

The lefty FA pool is smaller (so many TJS!), so let's start there. There are only two names that stand out to me:

Tanner Scott is Plan A. He's only 30 (rare amongst FA relief), he's a lefty, he's been elite the past two years in high lev situations and going 70+ innings, his pitch shapes are marvelous. Problem is he's everyone's Plan A. He's the best reliever on the market and he's getting the biggest deal, I'm guessing in the $16-19m range. I think we should be the one to give it to him.

AJ Minter is less automatic, but he's also relatively young and he's been very solid and consistent for five years before running into hip problems this summer (missed June, then out since August after surgery for it). He had fewer hi-lev appearances this year and I wouldn't want him closing regularly, but I'd rate him a solid notch above Booser/Bernardino and I'd be happy for him to take either of their spots.


On the righty side of things, the high leverage names mostly exist in this weird cluster of really old dudes. We're supplying about half of them, but Jansen, Martin and Urias join David Robertson, Kirby Yates, Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen as guys defying gravity, at least for this year. Can they repeat it? Who knows. I wouldn't be sad to see any of them on a one year deal, but I'd really want to be sure we've got depth in place in case they fall and can't get up.

On the younger side, Philly has both of the most interesting arms in Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez, who have each been getting some saves there and looking good doing it. Wouldn't be surprised if Dombrowski gets one or both to stay, and I'm guessing bidding on Hoffman in particular will get pretty high, I'd guess $12-15m? He's been worth that in both his last two years with PHI.

We've got about $26m of reliever money coming off the books and I think it would be wise to plow it right back into the pen. Getting Martin and Jansen was one of Bloom's more effective baseball moves, and I truly don't want to go back to the bad old days of 2022.

Scott/Hoffman
Hendriks
Slaten
Whitlock
Guerrero
Minter
Bernardino
Criswell

Looks a lot more stable to me, with Winckowski, Weissert, Booser, Campbell, Kelly and Penrod in reserve.

I'm open to trades too, but identifying those targets seems like a lot of work I don't want to do. Any ideas?

View: https://youtu.be/WIy-faPnZco?si=WXC3Lrl5TN-HTLQD

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I think you're underestimating Weissert. From June 28-July 28 he had an 8.53 ERA. For the rest of the season, his ERA was a tick over 2.00, and his FIP remained fairly steady even with that bad month, so it may just have been small sample size noise. He also ended the season with 16 straight scoreless appearances, so perhaps something clicked. And he's cheap. I'd pencil him in for a middle relief spot in 2025.

 

[BaseballJones]

Winckowski is a perfectly cromulent long reliever/spot starter/opener.
Campbell will get a shot again because he has dominant stuff but was obviously horrendous this year. But the stuff plays and he's had real MLB success.
Criswell is another guy who is perfectly acceptable as a long reliever/spot starter/opener. Might be better to have him or Winck start in AAA though to stay stretched out.
Hendriks is a late inning guy. I don't expect him to be dominant but he should be fine.
Whitlock should be a reliever - I'm buying what @Smiling Joe Hesketh is selling about him. Built to be a reliever so let's keep him there. Experiment is over with him.
Weissert has been really good the second half of the season as TPGC points out.
Slaten is quite possibly their best overall reliever.

Assuming Criswell or Winck goes to AAA and the other stays here, that's six of the eight bullpen arms they need. So now it's the lefties we need to discuss. It's not an inspiring group. Bernardino was lights out early but really struggled late. On July 14, his line was 1.69 era, 2.76 fip, 1.19 whip, .588 ops against. From July 14 on, it's been 8.05 era, 6.48 fip, 1.79 whip, .980 ops against. I have zero faith in him and do not think he should be one of the lefties. Booser is more intriguing as he has better stuff. 3.38 era on the season, 1.33 whip, 9.1 k/9 - misses more bats. I'd be ok with him as #2 lefty reliever. But I think they need a much better lefty than him to be their primary high leverage lefty. I'm not sure anyone on this list fits that, so I think that's someone they're going to have to acquire somehow.

But this bullpen is one I could live with:

Winck/Criswell - one in Boston, the other in Worcester
Campbell - on a trial run
Hendriks - closer or late inning guy
Whitlock - closer or late inning guy - could also be an alternate multi-innings guy if needed
Weissert
Slaten - closer or late inning guy
Booser - #2 lefty
XYZ - dominant lefty for high leverage spots or late innings

 

[lexrageorge]

Not sold on the idea of the current crop of relievers showing enough improvement in 2025. Yeah, some of their struggles were due to the starting pitching, but counting on Hendricks or Whitlock to be core bullpen aces is sure to lead to disappointment. Hendricks will be 36 next season, and while Whitlock has shown flashes of brilliance as a reliever, they are called "flashes" for a reason. No reason not to invest some resources in a relief ace with a better track record.

Separately, I wonder if Dick Fitts could find a role in the pen, especially if the team acquires a starter or two.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Not sold on the idea of the current crop of relievers showing enough improvement in 2025. Yeah, some of their struggles were due to the starting pitching, but counting on Hendricks or Whitlock to be core bullpen aces is sure to lead to disappointment. Hendricks will be 36 next season, and while Whitlock has shown flashes of brilliance as a reliever, they are called "flashes" for a reason. No reason not to invest some resources in a relief ace with a better track record.

Separately, I wonder if Dick Fitts could find a role in the pen, especially if the team acquires a starter or two.

Fittts seems like long term they see him as starter but I don’t see why he couldn’t be given a bullpen role where he could actually be dominant-
Pernod is someone who should be a AAAA depth starter. Protester and Criswell also- good depth.
I think Winchowski needs a role in the pen- hopefully his foot will heal up.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Criswell is out of options, FYI.

 

[YTF]

Not sold on the idea of the current crop of relievers showing enough improvement in 2025. Yeah, some of their struggles were due to the starting pitching, but counting on Hendricks or Whitlock to be core bullpen aces is sure to lead to disappointment. Hendricks will be 36 next season, and while Whitlock has shown flashes of brilliance as a reliever, they are called "flashes" for a reason. No reason not to invest some resources in a relief ace with a better track record.

Separately, I wonder if Dick Fitts could find a role in the pen, especially if the team acquires a starter or two.

I'm all for utilizing Fitts or Priester for that matter if during spring training they show that they can handle the role. That said, we also need to head into 2025 with some better "next man up" options out of WOOstah that can step into a starting role when called on. Considering what we've had to lean on the last couple of seasons, I can certainly see an argument for letting both develop as starters.

 

[simplicio]

I think you're underestimating Weissert. From June 28-July 28 he had an 8.53 ERA. For the rest of the season, his ERA was a tick over 2.00, and his FIP remained fairly steady even with that bad month, so it may just have been small sample size noise. He also ended the season with 16 straight scoreless appearances, so perhaps something clicked. And he's cheap. I'd pencil him in for a middle relief spot in 2025.

I may be underestimating him, but he's someone I don't entirely trust to handle pressure, and not just because his FIP jumps a full five points in high leverage situations.

He's started guys off with a ball or a strike in about equal numbers, which is unusual, especially for a guy a walk rate under 3. Not even Sims and his 5.59 BB/9 does that.
From 0-1 counts: 2.26 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 18.50 K/BB, .533 OPS against
From 1-0 counts: 5.49 FIP, 2.15 WHIP, 1.06 K/BB, .936 OPS against

I don't know what's going on there. Maybe he has a weak mental game, maybe that's the result of losing it during his rough patch, maybe he was tipping pitches for two months. But being that uncompetitive half the time is a pretty big problem. If he can figure that out some then I agree, he's been great for stretches.

We also have a whole pack of low lev guys: him, Bernie, Booser, Kelly, Winck (who was so much better last year). Remember when Slaten and Martin went down and our bullpen was them plus Kenley? I never want to go back to that. Injuries will happen and I'm sure they'll all see time again, I just don't want them all here on opening day. And Bernie is the one that can't be sent down so he gets the nod for the spot.

 

[BaseballJones]

Looking at the surface numbers:

Slaten: 2.98 era
Weissert: 3.21 era
Booser: 3.38 era
Winck: 4.20 era (long guy/spot starter)
Criswell: 4.08 era (long guy/spot starter)
Whitlock: 1.96 era
Hendriks: 2.81 era in 2022 (only 5 innings in 2023 so I won't count that)

That looks like a pretty decent pen at first glance. But it sure feels like it should be better.

 

[Fishy1]

Looking at the surface numbers:

Slaten: 2.98 era
Weissert: 3.21 era
Booser: 3.38 era
Winck: 4.20 era (long guy/spot starter)
Criswell: 4.08 era (long guy/spot starter)
Whitlock: 1.96 era
Hendriks: 2.81 era in 2022 (only 5 innings in 2023 so I won't count that)

That looks like a pretty decent pen at first glance. But it sure feels like it should be better.

It is! It's the 100 innings that went to Chase Anderson, the incredible imploding Sims and Garcia, and Zack Kelly, and the other shoddy depth options that killed us. Martin and Slaten and Booser missing a big chunk of time all at once hurt too.

I think we should pursue outside relief help but I'm not a fan of tying up big money in relievers, especially if that means the money can't be spent elsewhere and more impactfully. I'd rather we grabbed two or three guys at 5 million or so than splurge on one reliever for twenty million. Less risk tied up in one guy.

After all, some of the best Sox bullpens were built on unheralded guys like Okajima, Papelbon and Uehara. These guys weren't "high leverage guys" until, of course, they were.

Bet on stuff and control and track record of success and spend the money on superstars...PLEASE.

 

[simplicio]

So do you think it was a mistake to pay Kenley and Martin the past two years?

Our bullpen was worth 4.6 fwar in the first half and -1.6 in the second. In 2022 it accumulated 1.4 over the whole season. Spending real money to shore that up feels like a very good use of money to me.

 

[BaseballJones]

So do you think it was a mistake to pay Kenley and Martin the past two years?

Our bullpen was worth 4.6 fwar in the first half and -1.6 in the second. In 2022 it accumulated 1.4 over the whole season. Spending real money to shore that up feels like a very good use of money to me.

To whom is this question directed?

 

[Fishy1]

So do you think it was a mistake to pay Kenley and Martin the past two years?

Our bullpen was worth 4.6 fwar in the first half and -1.6 in the second. In 2022 it accumulated 1.4 over the whole season. Spending real money to shore that up feels like a very good use of money to me.

I get that.

But in a sense, yes. We needed the depth they provided, clearly, but I wish we had acquired cheaper options to fill those roles.

We could have had good relief without spending 25 million on those two guys. We've done it before. And that 25 million could have gone to more impactful players that might have pushed us into the playoffs. I might be wrong!

 

[BaseballJones]

Boston's four championship team closers:

2004 - Keith Foulke: $3.5m (he made $6m in 2003 with Oakland, then in 2005 and 2006 made $7.5m apiece for Boston)
2007 - Jonathan Papelbon: $425k (he was on a league minimum deal, made $775k in 2008 and then his salary jumped in 2009 to $6.2m)
2013 - Koji Uehara: $4.3m (he made $4m for Texas in 2012, would make $5m in 2014, then $9m for Bos in 2015 and 2016)
2018 - Craig Kimbrel: $13m (he made $9.3m for SD in 2015, then $11m for Bos in 2016, then $13m for Bos in 2017)

The $3.5m for Foulke was pretty reasonable for a quality closer in 2004. Mariano made $10.9m that year. Isringhausen made $7.8m. Gagne made $5m. Smoltz made $11.7m.

Papelbon obviously was super cheap in 2007. Koji was getting paid setup man money, not closer money in 2013. Hanrahan began the year as they're closer, making $7m. Man I loved Koji. Probably my second favorite Red Sox player ever behind Pedro. (he types wistfully) Yes, even over Papi, though that's a really hard call. I've just never, ever been as calm at the end of games in all my 54 years as when Koji was on the mound. I'm sure many of you can relate.

Kimbrel, of course, was reasonably expensive in 2018. Chapman was making more ($15m) but Kenley was cheaper ($10m).

Long story short, the Sox have been successful not paying *huge* dollars to closers.

 

[loneredseat]

I think of all the components of a team (starting pitching, relief pitching, hitting, defense) nothing is more frustrating than a weak bullpen (Ok, maybe defense...) It is is also inexpensive compared to starting pitching and hitting, and also the sox biggest need. Sure I'd like (LOVE) to find another bargain like Koji, but if I'm the guy in charge I'm spending a decent amount of my budget on the bullpen.

 

[simplicio]

The question of where to spend money is a good one, but I think given where the team was this year and what was available on the market (remember that the MI class was terrible), buying one more reliever might have a huge carrying effect in terms of keeping all our low lev guys in situations they could handle and weathering the July breakdown. They probably thought they were getting that in Campbell, and the moral of that story is however many bullpen arms you think you need, just add one more.

I also don't like to approach the pen nibbling at the edges and hoping to hit on a guy with sketchy peripherals. In 2022 that approach hit finding Strahm, but all that value was nullified by whiffing equally hard on Diekman. Spend the money and get the guys who have demonstrated consistent success. We've developed enough talent to keep the back end cheap, just make sure you have lock down guys at the top.

To whom is this question directed?

It was to Fishy.

 

[YTF]

The question of where to spend money is a good one, but I think given where the team was this year and what was available on the market (remember that the MI class was terrible), buying one more reliever might have a huge carrying effect in terms of keeping all our low lev guys in situations they could handle and weathering the July breakdown. They probably thought they were getting that in Campbell, and the moral of that story is however many bullpen arms you think you need, just add one more.

I completely get the sentiment here, but so much depends on the make up of your 40 man roster and which of those may have options left.

 

[simplicio]

Yup, and while I think Criswell is a near lock as long man/mop up/spot start due to that, Bernardino may realistically wind up elsewhere. Mata too, if he can ever actually stay off the IL for a full 30 days. There are several names (Horn, Shugart, Mata, possibly Murphy, maybe Kelly though I could also see him taking another step forward) that are pretty painless cuts from the 40 if we're running low on space.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

Yup, and while I think Criswell is a near lock as long man/mop up/spot start due to that, Bernardino may realistically wind up elsewhere. Mata too, if he can ever actually stay off the IL for a full 30 days. There are several names (Horn, Shugart, Mata, possibly Murphy, maybe Kelly though I could also see him taking another step forward) that are pretty painless cuts from the 40 if we're running low on space.

Regarding Criswell, I was thinking today he might be more valuable as the pitching part of a bigger trade. If he still had options, he is great as a 6th starter to stash in AAA, but without options he has to stick as the long man in the MLB pen. Unfortunately, he was way better as a starter than a reliever (3.49 ERA starting vs 7.53 ERA relieving). He would seem to be more valuable as a cheap 5th starter on another team. Also, Winck's step back in results from last year makes me think his biggest value is as a long man.

Does some combination of Criswell + young LHH position players get you the top end pitching needed in the rotation?

 

[Fishy1]

I dont object to spending money on relief pitching per se, @simplicio, I just don't like spending 25 mill on relievers if we're on a tighter budget, which we may be. The Yankees highest paid reliever is 6 million. Orioles - 2 million. The ROI on single relief pitchers is really rarely very high, so if you're going to spend smaller it's not the best place to do it.

The problem here is depth, IMO, which needs to be built through acquisitions and more Luis Urias for Isaiah Campbell type moves. I expect at least two of the guys from the middle infield jumble to get moved - maybe Hamilton, maybe Romy. I also expect Wong to get moved for pitching sometime in the next year.

This org has shown, between Slaten, Whitlock, Booser, Weissert, even Criswell, that it can identify underappreciated guys and get quality, even elite innings from them.

The big money will hopefully be going to get us a big name, or a couple of mid-range names. And if they want to spend 100 million this offseason and go get the best guy available, more power to them - that just doesn't seem likely.

Slaten has the stuff to close. I hope they give him a chance at it, deal from their depth to fill in the rest.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Regarding Criswell, I was thinking today he might be more valuable as the pitching part of a bigger trade. If he still had options, he is great as a 6th starter to stash in AAA, but without options he has to stick as the long man in the MLB pen. Unfortunately, he was way better as a starter than a reliever (3.49 ERA starting vs 7.53 ERA relieving). He would seem to be more valuable as a cheap 5th starter on another team. Also, Winck's step back in results from last year makes me think his biggest value is as a long man.

Does some combination of Criswell + young LHH position players get you the top end pitching needed in the rotation?

Wink was also pitching through an injury all season, so I'm not sure his '24 results are particularly meaningful.

 

[simplicio]

He was? How did I miss that? What was wrong with him?

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

I completely get the sentiment here, but so much depends on the make up of your 40 man roster and which of those may have options left.

Thankfully, the Red Sox 40-man roster currently features more filler and fodder than a Color Me Badd greatest hits album.

Boston’s bullpen has not been poor so much as it has been a poor complement to the Red Sox rotation. Bettering the bullpen in 2025 will similarly depend on whether Kutter Crawford and Cooper Criswell compose 40% of the rotation or whether an outside acquisition pitches deeper into games while allowing Crawford or Criswell to supplement the bullpen. The former scenario is not untenable, it just increases the need for acquiring a multi-inning reliever.

Expendable, with nary a thought: No Shugart tonight in my coffee, No Shugart tonight on my T

• Bailey Horn
• Bryan Mata
• Chase Shugart

I would not even go halfsies on a pizza with any of the above. There were relievers I preferred on waivers this season, there will be relievers I prefer on waivers in the next two months as teams accommodate players activated from the 60-day injured list and others added in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. If you break this glass in case of emergency, your most likely outcome is an emergency but with broken glass.

Expendable, but not without a replacement: I don't want my brother coming out of the Toilet with just Dick Berardino in his hands, alright?

• Brennan Bernardino
• Cam Booser
• Zack Kelly

Bernardino joined the Mariners on a minor league contract. The Red Sox nabbed Booser and Kelly on minor league contracts. If any return to the Red Sox organization, I would prefer it be on a minor league contract as I do not consider them an effective use of an off-season 40-man roster spot. Keeping both Bernardino and Booser on the same 40-man roster would be a disappointment. Keeping both Bernardino and Booser on the same 26-man roster would be a disaster.

From soup to nots: Workin’ on medical mysteries without any clues

• Isaiah Campbell
• Josh Winckowski

If injuries indeed were the primary reason neither Campbell nor Winckowski even approximated their 2023 performance, a positive prognosis probably precludes them from the ranks of the expendable. It was difficult to assess the severity of Campbell’s calvacade of calamaties, individually or collectively. Winckowski’s woes were more identifiable— a bone chip around his ankle and possibly strained cromulence— but never caused him to be placed on the injured list at the major- or minor-league level.

Here to stay but not here today: Dan DeLucia’s hirsute heroes of Wormtown

• Wikelman Gonzalez
• Luis Guerrero
• Chris Murphy (Unavailable until June, at earliest)
• Greg Weissert

I consider each of the above an effective use of a 40-man roster spot— whether for depth or development— but not necessarily an effective use of a 26-man roster spot.

2025 will be Gonzalez’s second option year, so it would seem to make sense for him to spend it in the minor leagues as a starter, especially with Luis Perales likely to miss much of the season. Last season, Gonzalez walked 11.1% of batters faced in appearances of more than two innings compared to 25.0% in appearances of two innings or less, so a relief role is not necessarily the remedy for his command concerns.

Guerrero has pitched well in his September major-league debut but threw less than 46% of his pitches in the zone in Triple A this season. He did reduce his minor-league walk rate from more than 15% prior to the All-Star break to slightly more than 10% after, but my short-term expectation is still Triple-A depth even if my long-term hope is for more.

Murphy’s ability to pitch multiple innings would be useful, especially if both Crawford and Criswell remain in the starting rotation, but he is highly unlikely to contribute anything at the major-league level during the first two months of 2025 and is a candidate to return to the 60-day IL once eligible again in February.

Weissert neither misses bats nor induces soft contact frequently enough to merit a prominent role in a contender’s major-league bullpen. Nothing in his full-season professional history suggests Weissert is likely to suppress home runs at the same rate he has during this season’s second half. He would seem best-suited as a 27th man— readily available but not regularly availed of.

I expect any unlisted relievers such as Michael Fulmer, Zach Penrod, and Garrett Whitlock to be (or become, in Fulmer’s case) 40-man fixtures, even if Penrod’s place on the 26-man roster will be predicated on his command catching up to his stuff.

 

[simplicio]

A big problem with all that is how close all our lefties are to the line of expendability.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

He was? How did I miss that? What was wrong with him?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-josh-winckowski-pitching-through-bone-chip-in-ankle/amp/

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Thankfully, the Red Sox 40-man roster currently features more filler and fodder than a Color Me Badd greatest hits album.

Boston’s bullpen has not been poor so much as it has been a poor complement to the Red Sox rotation. Bettering the bullpen in 2025 will similarly depend on whether Kutter Crawford and Cooper Criswell compose 40% of the rotation or whether an outside acquisition pitches deeper into games while allowing Crawford or Criswell to supplement the bullpen. The former scenario is not untenable, it just increases the need for acquiring a multi-inning reliever.

Expendable, with nary a thought: No Shugart tonight in my coffee, No Shugart tonight on my T

• Bailey Horn
• Bryan Mata
• Chase Shugart

I would not even go halfsies on a pizza with any of the above. There were relievers I preferred on waivers this season, there will be relievers I prefer on waivers in the next two months as teams accommodate players activated from the 60-day injured list and others added in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. If you break this glass in case of emergency, your most likely outcome is an emergency but with broken glass.

Expendable, but not without a replacement: I don't want my brother coming out of the Toilet with just Dick Berardino in his hands, alright?

• Brennan Bernardino
• Cam Booser
• Zack Kelly

Bernardino joined the Mariners on a minor league contract. The Red Sox nabbed Booser and Kelly on minor league contracts. If any return to the Red Sox organization, I would prefer it be on a minor league contract as I do not consider them an effective use of an off-season 40-man roster spot. Keeping both Bernardino and Booser on the same 40-man roster would be a disappointment. Keeping both Bernardino and Booser on the same 26-man roster would be a disaster.

From soup to nots: Workin’ on medical mysteries without any clues

• Isaiah Campbell
• Josh Winckowski

If injuries indeed were the primary reason neither Campbell nor Winckowski even approximated their 2023 performance, a positive prognosis probably precludes them from the ranks of the expendable. It was difficult to assess the severity of Campbell’s calvacade of calamaties, individually or collectively. Winckowski’s woes were more identifiable— a bone chip around his ankle and possibly strained cromulence— but never caused him to be placed on the injured list at the major- or minor-league level.

Here to stay but not here today: Dan DeLucia’s hirsute heroes of Wormtown

• Wikelman Gonzalez
• Luis Guerrero
• Chris Murphy (Unavailable until June, at earliest)
• Greg Weissert

I consider each of the above an effective use of a 40-man roster spot— whether for depth or development— but not necessarily an effective use of a 26-man roster spot.

2025 will be Gonzalez’s second option year, so it would seem to make sense for him to spend it in the minor leagues as a starter, especially with Luis Perales likely to miss much of the season. Last season, Gonzalez walked 11.1% of batters faced in appearances of more than two innings compared to 25.0% in appearances of two innings or less, so a relief role is not necessarily the remedy for his command concerns.

Guerrero has pitched well in his September major-league debut but threw less than 46% of his pitches in the zone in Triple A this season. He did reduce his minor-league walk rate from more than 15% prior to the All-Star break to slightly more than 10% after, but my short-term expectation is still Triple-A depth even if my long-term hope is for more.

Murphy’s ability to pitch multiple innings would be useful, especially if both Crawford and Criswell remain in the starting rotation, but he is highly unlikely to contribute anything at the major-league level during the first two months of 2025 and is a candidate to return to the 60-day IL once eligible again in February.

Weissert neither misses bats nor induces soft contact frequently enough to merit a prominent role in a contender’s major-league bullpen. Nothing in his full-season professional history suggests Weissert is likely to suppress home runs at the same rate he has during this season’s second half. He would seem best-suited as a 27th man— readily available but not regularly availed of.

I expect any unlisted relievers such as Michael Fulmer, Zach Penrod, and Garrett Whitlock to be (or become, in Fulmer’s case) 40-man fixtures, even if Penrod’s place on the 26-man roster will be predicated on his command catching up to his stuff.

Thinkin' Back, Color Me Badd had nine Top 40 hits and twelve total charted singles. They did it All 4 Love.

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

Thinkin' Back, Color Me Badd had nine Top 40 hits and twelve total charted singles. They did it All 4 Love.

I think that we may have identified the nadir of western civilization. In fairness, though, “Thinkin’ Back” prohibits me from disparaging Color Me Badd’s entire catalog.

Bailey Horn does not even appear in the line of expendability’s rear view mirror, but I think the likely composition of the balance of Boston’s bullpen mitigates some concern over its limited left-handed options. Campbell, Whitlock, and Winckowski have been more effective against left-handed batters. Fulmer and Hendriks have little-to-no platoon split. Slaten— in an admittedly smaller sample— has been much more effective against opposite-handed batters. While that sextet’s health history features more red flags than Mao Zedong’s birthday, its members should contribute many of the Red Sox’ high-leverage innings in 2025. That should not prohibit Boston from adding another high-leverage reliever, especially if Whitlock is needed in a multi-inning role, but handedness should be a lesser consideration than effectiveness.

 

[loneredseat]

What would it cost to keep Pivetta? Thoughts on whether or not he'd take a bullpen role? I could see him playing a role there.

 

[YTF]

What would it cost to keep Pivetta? Thoughts on whether or not he'd take a bullpen role? I could see him playing a role there.

He's a solid 4-5 starter for someone. He's been very durable in his time here, petty much taking the ball every 5th day. I can't see him staying here to come out of the pen when he can get paid elsewhere as a starter. Also IIRC, he was not happy when he was put in the pen for a time last season. At 31 years old, this might be his biggest payday.

 

[loneredseat]

He's a solid 4-5 starter for someone. He's been very durable in his time here, petty much taking the ball every 5th day. I can't see him staying here to come out of the pen when he can get paid elsewhere as a starter. Also IIRC, he was not happy when he was put in the pen for a time last season. At 31 years old, this might be his biggest payday.

Yeah, I get it... I could just see him being a real asset out there. Maybe if things don't shake out his way-

 

[simplicio]

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1846631346191638765

Seems like a good day for a Michael Fulmer update: He is throwing off a mound and trending well for spring training

 

[chrisfont9]

Fulmer's rate numbers are nearly identical as a starter and reliever. I think of him as a starter but to my surprise he hasn't been that since 2020. He should be an asset.

I don't know that they need more than one reliever, certainly just one from the expensive free agent basket (Estevez, Treinen, etc). I won't say no to more, but adding starters also helps stock the pen.

 

[Fishy1]

Just to give everyone a visual sense of what the problems were with the bullpen, look at this chart.



I see a stable of solid arms here. Slaten, Weissert, Guerrero, Booser, Winck, Bernardino--these guys are all major league arms. The problem was the depth behind these guys. Campbell sucked out loud (and was injured, so I don't exactly blame him), but the innings they gave to Kelly, Chase Anderson, Bailey Horn, Brad Keller, and Joely--that's 150 innings of below replacement level pitching. That's bad. And Chase Anderson was the plan for the back of the bullpen. Kelly was an arm who was gonna come up if somebody got injured. Garcia and Sims are major league pitchers, that they gave this team 29 innings of 5.50 ERA sucked, but it was just the shit cherry on top of the sundae. We're not in a position where we need to trade for them if the depth is better.

I don't blame Breslow for this, really, he had one offseason to fix the bullpen, and one season for his guru to work with the guys he did have, and three of the guys he added--Slaten, Booser, and Weissert--all gave them good performances in the course of the season. If he can add another three guys like that this offseason, to take the Kelly, Anderson, and Keller/Garcia/Sims innings, we might be on our way. Guerrero is ascendant, Fitts could maybe profile well as a reliever with the velocity bump that comes from pitching out of the bullpen (and so could Priester), Monegro is already in AA, Shugart acquitted himself well in limited time... but none of these guys are "proven" over the course of a season.

Obviously Breslow will also have to replace the Jansen/Martin innings. Moves at the margins like Urias for Campbell, Rule 5 picks, signing guys out of indy ball, these will help, but they also need to trade for or pay for some relievers, no doubt.

 

[simplicio]

I'm not sure Kelly is as bad as his season line. His first half was really good! 35 IP, 1.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .518 OPS against. But he crumbled in the second half when pushed into higher leverage situations due to the Martin and Slaten injuries. Maybe there's fatigue involved too, and certainly BABIP is a factor (though I think that's largely attributable to an 8% increase in hard hit rate at the expense of soft contact).

But he's definitely not a high lev guy and that's the gaping chasm we need to fill here.

 

[Fishy1]

I'm not sure Kelly is as bad as his season line. His first half was really good! 35 IP, 1.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .518 OPS against. But he crumbled in the second half when pushed into higher leverage situations due to the Martin and Slaten injuries. Maybe there's fatigue involved too, and certainly BABIP is a factor (though I think that's largely attributable to an 8% increase in hard hit rate at the expense of soft contact).

But he's definitely not a high lev guy and that's the gaping chasm we need to fill here.

xERA and FIP don't like him much. Too many home runs, too many walks. The guy has fantastic pure stuff but no idea where it seems to be going. Great upside, imo, but not really to be replied upon.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I'd feel a lot more confident if they add Tanner Scott to the mix in the pen. I think that would leave them in pretty good shape..

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What’s the situation with Mata? He really profiled as a potential closer type. I know injuries screwed up his development and he hit his FA status but he looked like a bullpen ace during ST ‘23?

 

[simplicio]

I don't think Mata is relevant unless he's used his time on the IL to figure out how to stop walking everyone.

 

[loneredseat]

What would it take to fetch Andres Munoz from Seattle?

 

[simplicio]

He's their closer and best reliever, he's cheap for another year and modestly cost controlled for another three after that. They were closer to the playoffs than us this year.

What's in it for them?

 

[loneredseat]

I don't know- that's kinda what I'm asking.

 

[simplicio]

The question is why any team in their position would trade a guy like that, and the answer is they wouldn't, unless they got an offer they couldn't refuse.

So the immediately related question is why we'd want to make offers people can't refuse for relief pitching, when we could just get really good relievers as free agents?

 

[simplicio]

Justin Wilson (LHRP) getting signed, around $2.25m plus another 750k in incentives. I'm guessing that takes a deal for someone like Minter off the table.

Hendriks
Slaten
Whitlock
Guerrero
Wilson
Bernardino
Fulmer
Criswell

In AAA:
Booser
Winckowski
Weissert
Campbell
Kelly
Penrod

But I'm guessing Bernardino may get cut here (Weissert probably next guy up?)

 

[simplicio]

McCaffrey has a decent rundown of the big name FA on the board, with projections:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5920594/2024/11/15/red-sox-free-agents-reliever-options?source=user-shared-article

 

[simplicio]

Bringing this over from one of the Soto threads:

Yeah the bullpen needs some help, but Between Hendricks and Whitlock returning i think the bullpen is closer than it appeared late last year. I keep questioning the bullpen depth last season - they were leveraged a ton and then they started dropping. The reserves left alit to be desired, or attest we got the downside of their variance.

Banking on Hendricks, Whitlock and Fulmer all coming back from injury and being good is what makes me most nervous about the current composition. That's a big chunk of the pen and a ton of potential variance, so I think it's wise to overcorrect and bring in more solid guys than you think you might need, even if that means keeping a guy like Guerrero down in AAA to start with even though he's clearly ready.

Hoffman is still the top of my list, so long as someone isn't luring him away with promises of a starting role. Then sign Carson Kelly as primary C and get Yates or Robertson maybe? They both just had excellent years throwing to him in Texas.

 

[tbrown_01923]

Bringing this over from one of the Soto threads:


Banking on Hendricks, Whitlock and Fulmer all coming back from injury and being good is what makes me most nervous about the current composition.

Agreed that there's risk there, seems like bullpen always carry some. But in the context of the other thread, given starter or bullpen: what is the biggest need? As disappointing as the bp was average the last half, there is some upside baked in in the returning guys.

I'm not sure i see the need for 15-20mm to be spent on the bp as opposed to adding that to the rotation (whether that is applied to a larger offer for a front line starter or to bring in a second line guy like Vivaldi in addition to a front line starter). That'd be 5-6 major league capable starters with giolito/Crawford in the 5th (and/or) 6th spots on depth (depending on 1 or 2 signings / trades). As stayed here plenty of times, but getting into the 6th consistently has a major impact on bp.

Who knows what their operating budget is though - but operating in the +90mm to payroll range, if they add Soto, they are probably limited to bp or rotation...

 

[lexrageorge]

Bringing this over from one of the Soto threads:


Banking on Hendricks, Whitlock and Fulmer all coming back from injury and being good is what makes me most nervous about the current composition. That's a big chunk of the pen and a ton of potential variance, so I think it's wise to overcorrect and bring in more solid guys than you think you might need, even if that means keeping a guy like Guerrero down in AAA to start with even though he's clearly ready.

Hoffman is still the top of my list, so long as someone isn't luring him away with promises of a starting role. Then sign Carson Kelly as primary C and get Yates or Robertson maybe? They both just had excellent years throwing to him in Texas.

Banking on players returning from injury is also a bad strategy because it’s a near certainty that one or three or more of the team’s rostered pitchers will succumb to injury this season.

 

[simplicio]

Agreed that there's risk there, seems like bullpen always carry some. But in the context of the other thread, given starter or bullpen: what is the biggest need? As disappointing as the bp was average the last half, there is some upside baked in in the returning guys.

I'm not sure i see the need for 15-20mm to be spent on the bp as opposed to adding that to the rotation (whether that is applied to a larger offer for a front line starter or to bring in a second line guy like Vivaldi in addition to a front line starter). That'd be 5-6 major league capable starters with giolito/Crawford in the 5th (and/or) 6th spots on depth (depending on 1 or 2 signings / trades). As stayed here plenty of times, but getting into the 6th consistently has a major impact on bp.

Who knows what their operating budget is though - but operating in the +90mm to payroll range, if they add Soto, they are probably limited to bp or rotation...

I think the first starter is important but I don't see adding a second as a priority. We have Criswell, Fitts, Priester and potentially Whitlock available to step up should someone go down. We just ran Criswell as our 5th starter for most of this season and the rotation was fine, though the innings problem stressed the bullpen more than it could handle. I see rotation depth currently as more solid than it was this year.

The bullpen on the other hand just lost its 8th and 9th inning guys without a really clear cut answer to replace them, and is in danger of repeating a reliance on low lev guys in hi lev situations should we need to bring guys up from Worcester. We've had bullpen collapses in the second half cost us the season in two of the last three years and yeah, I think it's entirely worth the money to shore that up.

 

[brownsox]

I think the first starter is important but I don't see adding a second as a priority. We have Criswell, Fitts, Priester and potentially Whitlock available to step up should someone go down. We just ran Criswell as our 5th starter for most of this season and the rotation was fine, though the innings problem stressed the bullpen more than it could handle. I see rotation depth currently as more solid than it was this year.

The bullpen on the other hand just lost its 8th and 9th inning guys without a really clear cut answer to replace them, and is in danger of repeating a reliance on low lev guys in hi lev situations should we need to bring guys up from Worcester. We've had bullpen collapses in the second half cost us the season in two of the last three years and yeah, I think it's entirely worth the money to shore that up.

Hunter Dobbins should be in Worcester ready to go, too, like Fitts and Priester. Agreed, rotation depth isn’t really the issue with this team.

I think the question is whether the top half of the rotation is where you want it to be if you just add one starter (let’s say Fried). As you say, the rotation was fine last year. It would be above-average to better if you add one front-line starter, but it could be really good if you could get a Flaherty or Eovaldi as well. Basically the difference between Bello being your No. 3 guy and No. 4 guy.

To be clear, I agree with you that both the rotation and the bullpen need at least one more good pitcher. But I can see the appeal of adding a second starter.

 

[chawson]

The bullpen on the other hand just lost its 8th and 9th inning guys without a really clear cut answer to replace them, and is in danger of repeating a reliance on low lev guys in hi lev situations should we need to bring guys up from Worcester. We've had bullpen collapses in the second half cost us the season in two of the last three years and yeah, I think it's entirely worth the money to shore that up.

I really don’t see how we can do better than re-signing Martin on a one-year deal. He’s already said he’s good for one more, and I’d have to think staying in Boston may be attractive or less disruptive than other options.

He was pretty unlucky last year, BABIP’d to death, having a very low (unlucky) LOB%, and allowing 5 home runs allowed when only one was a “no doubter” according to Statcast. He’s also well respected in the clubhouse and has some mentorship qualities (thinking of him teaching Pivetta that sweeper or whatever he calls it).

I don’t think it would preclude other impact acquisitions, like a trade for Doval or signing Estevez, as has been floated. But re-signing Martin would only help.