Out of Nowhere with a Steel Chair: Kristaps Porziņģis (Nov 25th Return)

radsoxfan

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The announced timeline was pretty conservative so not entirely surprised (though figured there would be a bit more buildup rather than have it be so sudden).

I'm sure they feel confident they are being cautious enough and no additional risk here by him coming back "early".

My only nervousness is not with him being rushed back, just the somewhat uncommon nature of this injury. I honestly don't know if there is an agreed upon standard surgical technique for repairing this injury, the risk of re-injury, etc. It's certainly not close to as common as an ACL tear, Achilles tear, etc.

Presumably he had an experienced foot/ankle surgeon and they feel he is good to go. Let's hope for the best.
 

BigSoxFan

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Fully expecting the inevitable setbacks so will enjoy nights like this as much as I can. He makes this team so much more fun to watch.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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I don't know anything about anything when it comes to the medical stuff, but I just don't see why they'd risk him as an asset if he wasn't 100% good to go. What's the point? They must feel like he's completely healthy and not playing him is just stupid. And, really, it makes sense that if he's good to be scrimmaging and banging around with G-Leaguers, they must not be too worried about re-injury. I'm psyched. But I'll still cringe every time he falls down.
 

TripleOT

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KP with 16/6/2/1/2 in 22 minutes, 1-6 from 5th, 5-6 inside the arc, and some solid rim defense. He was moving well. KP actually got pissed after Zubac scored on him a bunch of times, and he locked him up on a few possessions before sitting for the night.

Adding a guy this good to a team that other teams have to go extraordinarily lengths to defeat should be very disheartening to the rest of the league.
 

Euclis20

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The jumper was off (just 1-7 outside of the paint), but most of his shots were halfway down or hit the back rim. He got a TON of open looks, White and Pritchard's increased scoring gravity (and playmaking leaps from both JB and JT) mean he's gonna get even more room to operate than last year. He was excellent in the paint on both ends.

Please please please be healthy when it matters.
 

TripleOT

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The jumper was off (just 1-7 outside of the paint), but most of his shots were halfway down or hit the back rim. He got a TON of open looks, White and Pritchard's increased scoring gravity (and playmaking leaps from both JB and JT) mean he's gonna get even more room to operate than last year. He was excellent in the paint on both ends.

Please please please be healthy when it matters.
And when he’s hitting shots from 28 feet, there is more room inside the arc for his teammates to operate inside the arc. Al Horford tends to hug the line when shooting threes, so there is a bit more room to get to the rim with the defense’s big a half step out on the perimeter trying to het a hand up on KP
 

Eddie Jurak

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Not seeing him on the floor and having the Celtics go 14-3 without him, even though some of those games got a lillte dicey, you kind of forget how much he brings until you see him on the floor again. 14/6/4 in 23 minutes is good (even though the shot isn't falling yet), but where he really made an impact is on defense. His two blocks were just the tip of the iceberg of all of the shots he changed or prevented..
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's maybe my favorite Celtic to watch. Fuck the bubblewrap: let's have some fun!
I don’t expect much bubble wrap or minutes restriction after the first game or two. He played under 32 mpg most games last year and higher when it was called for. If he’s not experiencing any setbacks I’d expect similar this year….32-34 a night on average.
 

lexrageorge

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Just going back to last year: Celtics were slightly higher winning percentage (23-6, 0.793) than their overall 0.780 when their TOP6 played. Those 7 games:

- The game in Oklahoma City where Shia went off for 36, although the Celtics made a game of it in the 4th;
- The 2 losses to Denver that got us sufficiently nervous;
- Their Payton Hillis game against the Lakers reserves;
- The Dean Wade game in Cleveland;
- A late season tilt against the Knicks which Coach Joe treated as a warmup game (Svi and Springer getting 25 combined minutes).

Playoffs: 6-1

I'm guessing the over/under for games with the entire TOP6 is probably going to be around 25 this season.

EDIT: miscounted
 
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Light-Tower-Power

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Even before the ankle issue today I thought he had been looking very stiff and not as mobile as he was last season. Maybe just rust but starting to wonder how much he has left in the tank at this point.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Even before the ankle issue today I thought he had been looking very stiff and not as mobile as he was last season. Maybe just rust but starting to wonder how much he has left in the tank at this point.
Who will our bigs be for the 2026-27 season in two years? Jrue will either be older or gone as well. This units window is extremely small. Brad will need to work his magic to surround JT and JB with a Championship roster after next season.
 

Euclis20

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This is where Tillman never finding his footing really hurts, I think he had a much higher ceiling with this team than Kornet or Queda. ”After next season” could end up being generous, I think there’s at least a 50% chance Horford retires after this season and we need someone good enough to start on a title team because Porzingis just can’t ever be relied upon to be healthy.
 

Euclis20

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Even before the ankle issue today I thought he had been looking very stiff and not as mobile as he was last season. Maybe just rust but starting to wonder how much he has left in the tank at this point.
I thought he started his season strong and looked as close to 100% as possible (at least on offense, the defense I chalked up to rust) but since he turned an ankle a couple weeks ago he’s been hobbling more than usual.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Who will our bigs be for the 2026-27 season in two years? Jrue will either be older or gone as well. This units window is extremely small. Brad will need to work his magic to surround JT and JB with a Championship roster after next season.
And 3 minutes later I see Trace Jackson-Davis denying Anthony Davis at the rim. JFC.
 

InstaFace

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From the Celtics thread:

...They aren't being dropped into the finals next week so I'm not worried about the defense (if they do make it back through the east that's a problem that will have worked itself out), but yes, the biggest problem is KP and Al. At this point it feels like we'll be lucky to have a healthy porzingis in the finals and will again be relying on Al. He might still be able to pull off 30+ minutes of great play in the finals with plenty of rest between games (and my favorite Horford playoff stat is that he's shooting .561 from 3 in 11 finals games), but there are some potentially ugly matchups out there.
It seems like there's a lot of venn-diagram overlap between the people who were expressing hope for us to bubble-wrap Porzingis for chunks of time during this regular season to preserve him for the playoffs, and the people complaining that, now that we are in fact bubble-wrapping Porzingis, he can't be counted on in the playoffs.

Guys, we are keeping the odometer low on him (and as low as possible on Horford), precisely so that the odds we can count on him in the playoffs are maximized. In his last 6 completed seasons, Porzingis has averaged 54 regular-season games: never fewer than 43 (in the 72-game 20-21 season), never more than 65 (22-23 for WAS). Being that he's now 30 years old, we want him on the lower end of that spectrum: play enough by the end of the season that he's in game shape and has reps with the guys for chemistry, but no more than is necessary to achieve those goals.

He has played in 11 of the Celtics' 32 games so far this year. If he comes back from a 2-3 week break and plays a big stretch for a month or two, and has another break let's say around February-ish, he will probably end the season in the 40-50 games range. That's ideal! That's what we want! We already know he will "Schilling / Dr Morgan" himself if need be to take the court for a playoff game, we don't have to wonder about that. We can already see from his 11 games played that he is still an impact player for us, just like last year. We don't have to wonder about that either. What we need is for him to be on the court for the fewest number of minutes between now and mid-April that will allow him to be at his max performance level. If he had played (say) 28 of the 32 games so far, I would be a lot MORE worried about him than I am right now.

Let's all chill about Porzingis, and his short-term nicks and knocks. As long as we avoid the big ones that sink him for the season, which implies also avoiding having him roll the dice in too many meaningless games, then he'll be there for us in April.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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It's pretty amazing look at these 3s from last night. I think only one of them was from within a foot of the line. Many are three-four feet back. Pretty obvious what that does for spacing and driving lanes when he's out there. Big Al can shoot it, but he's basically always within a hair of the line.

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1884987531693002893


When you consider the range, is he the best 7-foot-plus shooter of all time? I guess KAT is 7 feet. Durant is listed at 6-11.

Looking at the all-time 3pt% list, it's so wild to see Al Horford at #172 and Larry Bird at #185.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's pretty amazing look at these 3s from last night. I think only one of them was from within a foot of the line. Many are three-four feet back. Pretty obvious what that does for spacing and driving lanes when he's out there. Big Al can shoot it, but he's basically always within a hair of the line.

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1884987531693002893


When you consider the range, is he the best 7-foot-plus shooter of all time? I guess KAT is 7 feet. Durant is listed at 6-11.

Looking at the all-time 3pt% list, it's so wild to see Al Horford at #172 and Larry Bird at #185.
Thanks for posting. Most big man 3Ps made below. Dirk KAT and Markkanen are probably in the same category (not over 7 feet). Brook Lopez is in the conversation. Wemby obviously may be better than all of them.

But the real reason I posted this - Hey Drew, Unicorns don't spit fire! :cool:
 

lovegtm

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Obviously he's on an insane, unsustainable heater right now, but KP has been looking more comfortable and locked in on his 3 for a couple weeks now. It's really helping the offense to have him spacing as the default, rather than always posting.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Thanks for posting. Most big man 3Ps made below. Dirk KAT and Markkanen are probably in the same category (not over 7 feet). Brook Lopez is in the conversation. Wemby obviously may be better than all of them.

But the real reason I posted this - Hey Drew, Unicorns don't spit fire! :cool:
Seriously. Everyone knows they breathe fire from their nostrils:

 

TripleOT

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The Celtics have an insanely good record when KP does not play. Last season, it was 51-6, including 10-2 in the playoffs. This season it is 20-5. Overall, that’s 71-11, which would be the third best regular season record of all time

KP has missed an entire season worth of games. With him, the Celts were 49-15 last season, including playoffs, and are 15-10 this season, for a total of 64-25, which is a 59 win team.

EDIT: this post is incorrect. See below for the correct numbers
 
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Euclis20

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The Celtics have an insanely good record when KP does not play. Last season, it was 51-6, including 10-2 in the playoffs. This season it is 20-5. Overall, that’s 71-11, which would be the third best regular season record of all time

KP has missed an entire season worth of games. With him, the Celts were 49-15 last season, including playoffs, and are 15-10 this season, for a total of 64-25, which is a 59 win team.
The math isn't right here, he missed 25 regular season games and 12 playoff games last year, 37 total (not 57). He's missed 50 regular season games with Boston, not close to a full season just yet.

The sentiment is the same though, Boston was 21-4 in the regular season last year and 20-5 this year, that's 41-9 and on pace for a 67 win season (not even counting the playoffs).

On the bright side, KP is one of the only Celtics who might statistically be better this year. His 3P% is currently 41 points higher, and like the rest of the team he's shooting more of them (8.6 per 100 possessions last year, 10.7 per 100 possessions this year).

It is shocking how much better Boston does when he's on the bench though. His net rating is -8.7, compared to -1.2 last year. On the bright side, -8.7 is tied with Lebron.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It is shocking how much better Boston does when he's on the bench though. His net rating is -8.7, compared to -1.2 last year. On the bright side, -8.7 is tied with Lebron.
As Reddit pointed out, KP's return also coincided with what appears to have been an injury to DW, so that counts something towards BOS's uneven performance and KP's poor numbers.

But he/the team has been playing better. As an example, KP's NetRtg for the last 9 games is +17.2, while for copmairson his NetRtg for the last 15 games is +1.2.
 

Euclis20

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As Reddit pointed out, KP's return also coincided with what appears to have been an injury to DW, so that counts something towards BOS's uneven performance and KP's poor numbers.

But he/the team has been playing better. As an example, KP's NetRtg for the last 9 games is +17.2, while for copmairson his NetRtg for the last 15 games is +1.2.
It's not controversial to say that the best version of this team includes KP, even if they were playing better before his return (for whatever reason), they need him to win the title in what will undoubtedly be a more difficult playoff run this time around. And a lousy net rating (especially in a quarter season sized sample) doesn't necessarily mean anything. Forget Lebron, everyone is enamored with J-Dub and he's put up a scorching -11.2 net rating this season.
 

TripleOT

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My a one post is wrong

2023-2024 Boston regular season 64-18 KP played 57 games. 43 wins 14 losses
2023-2024 without KP. 25 games 21 wins 4 losses
2024 playoffs without KP 12 games 10 wins 2 losses. With 7 games. 6 wins 1 loss
2024-2025 Without KP 25 games 20 wins 5 losses. With. 25 games 15 wins 10 losses
Totals. Without KP 62 games 51 wins 11 losses. With 89 games 64 wins 25 losses

A 67.5 win team without KP. A 59 win team with KP
 

TripleOT

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How much more of a sample size do we need to at least discuss why the Celtics seem to be better without KP?

My theory is that defensively they are more switchable on defense, which tends to snuff out opponents’ offense better than when Boston plays a big who is exploitable on the floor.

Offensively, Boston tends to be more attack oriented when KP doesn’t play. He isn’t a great pick setter, and him standing 35 feet from the hoop doesn’t put a lot of pressure on defenses, even when he is hitting threes. I’m not a fan of his 15 foot post up, which grinds the offense to a halt. It can be helpful in the playoffs, though.
 

benhogan

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How much more of a sample size do we need to at least discuss why the Celtics seem to be better without KP?

My theory is that defensively they are more switchable on defense, which tends to snuff out opponents’ offense better than when Boston plays a big who is exploitable on the floor.

Offensively, Boston tends to be more attack oriented when KP doesn’t play. He isn’t a great pick setter, and him standing 35 feet from the hoop doesn’t put a lot of pressure on defenses, even when he is hitting threes. I’m not a fan of his 15 foot post up, which grinds the offense to a halt. It can be helpful in the playoffs, though.
JAYsWhite have been in a shooting slump for over a month, which coincided with KPs return.

This team is better with KP.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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How much more of a sample size do we need to at least discuss why the Celtics seem to be better without KP?

My theory is that defensively they are more switchable on defense, which tends to snuff out opponents’ offense better than when Boston plays a big who is exploitable on the floor.

Offensively, Boston tends to be more attack oriented when KP doesn’t play. He isn’t a great pick setter, and him standing 35 feet from the hoop doesn’t put a lot of pressure on defenses, even when he is hitting threes. I’m not a fan of his 15 foot post up, which grinds the offense to a halt. It can be helpful in the playoffs, though.
You'd at least have to start looking at opponents before you can even start discussing why BOS has a better record when KP is off.
 

lovegtm

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You'd at least have to start looking at opponents before you can even start discussing why BOS has a better record when KP is off.
Is there that much of a selection effect though? With the exception of some B2Bs (which do have that effect), most of his games missed with Boston have been due to injury, not opponent.
 

InstaFace

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Is there that much of a selection effect though? With the exception of some B2Bs (which do have that effect), most of his games missed with Boston have been due to injury, not opponent.
I assume he didn't mean selection bias in terms of games KP is rested for, but rather, that we've had harder stretches and easier stretches of opponents during the season, and by coincidence we've played harder (or harder-for-us) opponents when we have KP's services, and easier ones when we don't.