Only God Can Judge Judge

terrynever

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Let Judge get 100 ABs in Scranton and see how he handles the next level of pitching, where supposedly there is more game planning of opposing hitters than you see in AA ball. Beltran isn't cooked yet. He might get injured and that would open a door in RF but Girardi and Cashman probably still prefer to fill in with Flores for the time being. What you are proposing with Judge is something we Yankee fans hope will happen in late summer. You always root for the elite players to crash through the door instead of just knocking.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Yeah, I was suggesting a late August call up. Early enough to make him playoff eligible, but late enough for him to get some time in at AAA first to continue showing he can hit pitchers at higher levels. The "upgrade right now" comment was mostly just pointing out that the current Yankees outfield isn't producing much outside of Gardner.
 

jon abbey

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I do think they're going to be more aggressive with guys like Judge and Severino than they've been with prospects in the past (based on Hal's mentions of them in interviews), but it's also worth noting that Beltran's OPS since May 1 is .808. His horrendous April (.481 OPS) is still keeping down his season numbers, but he's been better in recent weeks. 
 
They also may start giving Garrett Jones more of a chance, since he has game-winning HRs the last two games. 
 

jon abbey

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Our hero was just promoted to AAA, worth noting that his HR on Saturday night was against the rehabbing Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles, so a legit quality MLB pitcher. 
 

jon abbey

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It would be pretty cool if Judge and Severino both came up by roster expansion time, fingers crossed.
 

jon abbey

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Team photo day in AAA, it's not hard to pick out our supersized hero:
 
 

terrynever

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Judge homered tonight, two-run shot in the eighth while trailing 12-0 to Louisville, it was Judge's second hit in four games with Scranton. Good to see him in AAA ball already.
 

jon abbey

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Judge is playing CF for the first time as a pro today at any level, not sure what that's about. 
 

EvilEmpire

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Judge is playing CF for the first time as a pro today at any level, not sure what that's about.
I hope to hell it doesn't mean they are shopping him. The Yankees don't need him to play CF.
 

jon abbey

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Judge with a massive line drive HR just now, this tweet gives you a sense of it:
 
https://twitter.com/RailRidersTT/status/635262773233123328
 
Edit: Judge was on base all five times tonight, 3-3 with 2 walks and a SB. Also, Rob Refsnyder said after the game that Judge's HR was the hardest-hit HR he has ever seen. 
 

jon abbey

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I am out, but he is up and in today's lineup!!! Judgement Day has arrived!
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Back to back with Tyler Austin, also in his first big league AB. Incredible. Also, watch the replay of Judge's home run. Country strong.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, he's been hitting bombs like that in AAA, but amazing to come up and do it first AB like that.
 

jon abbey

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He's pretty good defensively also by reputation, with a very strong arm, so NY's RF should be easy for him.
 

jon abbey

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He's just so strong, and also he's pretty patient at the plate, the walk he took today was impressive, a bunch of close pitches he easily could have gone after. They need to move him up in the lineup to 5th or 6th, hopefully that will happen ASAP.
 

terrynever

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Judge hit another one today, it was a cheap one, but it still counts.
It was a bullet of a line drive, a gap shot in most parks. The DP he hit into was also stung, lots of topspin. His strength is scary, kind of like Frank Howard. Winfield might be a better comparison in terms of size and athletic ability, although Winfield was 45 pounds lighter.
 

jon abbey

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Winfield was my favorite player growing up, loved that guy. I think that's why I latched onto Judge so quickly, this might be the only thread I've ever started for a new draftee.
 

jon abbey

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Kevin Cash's quote after his first game was pretty good:

"There's a lot of excitement that they have and probably rightfully so," Rays manager Kevin Cash said. "Judge definitely looks the part. If he wasn't playing baseball, it looks like he should be a defensive end somewhere. He's massive. He's bigger than (Giancarlo) Stanton."
 

jon abbey

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Judge is 5 for his last 47 with 27 Ks, that's not ideal. He's always taken a couple of months to adjust to each new level, so one hopes that's all this is and good that he's getting it out of the way this year and not next April/May.
 

Cesar Crespo

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0/3 with another 3ks so far today. He's struck out in 35 of 73 PA this year, and it's just getting worse. 23 Ks/2bb in his last 35 plate appearances.
 

terrynever

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Judge saved a run with diving catch. You guys should be thrilled that he is helping to beat Toronto. Plus, he hasn't made two outs in the same AB because he strikes out every time up.
 

jon abbey

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Again. he's had trouble adjusting to every level. He wasn't very good in April/May in AAA, then he started crushing in June. Let's see how he's doing after 200 ABs, this year and next.
 

terrynever

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Again. he's had trouble adjusting to every level. He wasn't very good in April/May in AAA, then he started crushing in June. Let's see how he's doing after 200 ABs, this year and next.
And that is exactly what the Yankees will do. It is an interesting balancing act as they continue to contend while nursing Judge and other prospects along. Tyler Austin swung the bat well today. Holder walked a couple guys. And they still won.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Again. he's had trouble adjusting to every level. He wasn't very good in April/May in AAA, then he started crushing in June. Let's see how he's doing after 200 ABs, this year and next.
His game logs suggest the only level he had trouble adjusting to was AAA. And even then, it wasn't this bad. He is striking out in 48% of his PA. This has to be historically bad?

edit: I'm worried about Moncada having a Judge type start...
 

jon abbey

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Hmm, I was pretty sure about that initial struggling at each level thing, but don't really feel like researching it.

Judge is streaky and will probably always have stretches where he looks terrible, although hopefully not this bad or this long. Joey Gallo has had similar issues, striking out in more than half of his big league ABs so far over last year and this (66 Ks in 123 ABs).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Gallo had even worse k rates than Judge in the minors. I can't think of any player who has ever had a 30% k rate in the minors who succeeded in the majors.
 

Sampo Gida

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It takes about 100 PA for K rates to stabilize, and then you need to regress 50% to league average

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/14215

Its likely he will be a 30% K guy, +/- whatever. That can be acceptable if he produces enough XBH and HR. He has squared up a few balls, with sick exit velocity. Not enough though

Pedroia looked awful in his call up in 2006, and struggled to start in 2007. Yankees will just have to be patient with Judge. If you want cheap homegrown talent, you have to pay the price early on. Some guys just have to finish their development in MLB. More AAA experience won't help them
 

TheYaz67

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Yeah, except I think Dustin could fit comfortably inside of Judge's strike zone....

Like the Richie Sexton's of the world, hard to cover the whole plate when you are that big and have a longer swing.
 

jon abbey

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Our hero is likely done for the season after straining his oblique today, maybe not the worst thing. He got in just under 100 MLB PAs and played almost every day for about a month, definitely a nice head start going into next year. The results were mixed to be generous, but he was starting to make a bit more consistent contact, only 5 Ks in his final 17 ABs (after a hard to believe 20 in his previous 30 ABs).

So he struck out a ton (42 Ks in 84 ABs, 95 PAs), but one promising sign to build on:

Katie Sharp ‏@ktsharp 2h2 hours ago
Aaron Judge has highest avg exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (99.5 mph) among all players with 30+ batted balls.
 

terrynever

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Katie Sharp‏ @ktsharp 3h3 hours ago
Aaron Judge is 2nd Yankee OF under age-25 with 4 HR in team's 1st 13 games. The other? Mickey Mantle in 1956.
Watching Judge swing and miss a pitch last night, I was reminded of the way Mantle swung at a baseball. The ferocity of the swing made Mantle's ABs an event. Judge is doing the same thing to us fans. You don't want to miss any of his ABs.
 

Big John

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I watched the Yankees last night and I thought the most impressive thing Judge did was beating out a grounder to deep short for an RBI single. He's the size of Frank Howard but Judge can run, catch the ball and throw the ball.