Only God Can Judge Judge

[m0ckduck]

If the season ended today, would he be named MVP?

For the stats crowd, he has the AL lead in bWAR, RC and OPS+. For the more traditional-minded, he's a whisker away Triple Crown position.

On the other hand. the case for him seems less irresistible now that NY is no longer running away with the AL East (not that this should matter... but it probably does, especially in the minds of voters who are looking for an excuse not to crown a rookie).

 

[jon abbey]

Pretty sure he'd be close to unanimous MVP if the season ended today, but still half the season left.

 

[jon abbey]

Yankees w/ 200+ Total Bases and 50+ walks before All-Star Break:

Aaron Judge
Mickey Mantle (1956)
Lou Gehrig (1936)

 

[jon abbey]

Judge sets the alltime Yankee rookie home run record with 30, Joe D had 29. He has the second most HRs of any rookie ever before the ASB, behind McGwire who had 33.

 

[NYCSox]

Barry Bonds 2001 (73 HR season) - .266 BABIP and HR/FB 26.7%

Aaron Judge 2017 (before today) - .427 BABIP and HR/FB 41.4%

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1109&position=OF

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15640&position=OF

Reality will set in soon enough.

 

[jon abbey]

The last five other players mentioned in this thread have been Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds.

No idea what will happen in the future, but for Judge it is all about his plate discipline and strike zone recognition, which has been remarkably consistent all year. His best in baseball exit velocity isn't going down, I think it could even go up as he starts to learn pitchers better.

His next week will be especially draining, not for the home run contest as much as being the focus of so much attention from so many angles on a national stage at the ASG, then a series with Boston right after the break. The season is really long and rookies obviously haven't been through that, but he has shown no signs of slowing down yet. I think his age helps here, he is not 20 or 21 like so many of the best prospects when they come up, he turned 25 in April.

 

[jon abbey]

Bryan Hoch‏Verified account @BryanHoch 33m33 minutes ago
Aaron Judge said he has a note in his iPhone that says ".179" - his batting average last year. He looks at it every day.

Erik Boland‏Verified account @eboland11 5m5 minutes ago
Aaron Judge: "I have it in my notes, I look at it every day, .179, what I hit last year. It's just a reminder this game will humble you quick."

 

[jon abbey]

Really nice adjustment by Judge in his second AB today, the MIL pitcher (Suter) hadn't allowed a hit to that point, and was messing up the Yankee hitters by his Buehrle-like quick delivery between pitches. So Judge just didn't step out of the box, but stayed ready to hit the whole time between pitches, fouling off a few 3-2 pitches and finally taking the walk.

 

[Valek123]

Good god he has insane power. One great thing about the Sox finally breaking through and winning the WS a few times is that honestly the Yankees have become just another team in my mind which has made it so I can more directly appreciate watching a player like Judge. I hope he has an amazing career but still fails horribly against Sox pitchers. Fun to watch him last night.

P.s. the at bat above was what I wish every at bat was, that would make baseball watchable for the vast majority of fans again.

 

[jon abbey]

Slight apologies for posting this article, as it's pretty insanely over the top. On the other hand, since it's from one of the best national writers (Jeff Passan), it seemed worth posting, some amazing quotes and statements in here, I'll just choose one but the whole piece is well worth reading:

===========================================

"“I’ve never seen somebody hit a ball like that in my life,” Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez said. “Never ever ever ever ever ever.”

He took a moment to consider Judge’s performance before saying something that might be blasphemous were it not absolutely true.

“Not Babe Ruth,” Perez said. “I don’t think anybody could hit the ball like that.”"

https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-judges-legendary-home-run-derby-performance-introduced-world-baseballs-newest-star-072944350.html

 

[luckiestman]

What I like about Judge is he makes all those old time stories that aren't on film seem true

 

[edoug]

Watching him on the MLB Network, He seem's to be a really good guy. The only bad thing I can say about him is he looks terrible in pinstripes.

 

[Bergs]

P.s. the at bat above was what I wish every at bat was, that would make baseball watchable for the vast majority of fans again.

No doubt. That AB felt really old school.

 

[gedman211]

Barry Bonds 2001 (73 HR season) - .266 BABIP and HR/FB 26.7%

Aaron Judge 2017 (before today) - .427 BABIP and HR/FB 41.4%

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1109&position=OF

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15640&position=OF

Reality will set in soon enough.

Judge's 50% hard hit, and 26% opp. field tell me that the babip might not be that much of an aberration

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Barry Bonds 2001 (73 HR season) - .266 BABIP and HR/FB 26.7%

Aaron Judge 2017 (before today) - .427 BABIP and HR/FB 41.4%

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1109&position=OF

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15640&position=OF

Reality will set in soon enough.

BABIP is also impacted by hard hit rate. As you've probably read in a couple of Judge articles at this point, it's not entirely uncommon to maintain well above average bapips if you're hard hit contact rate is insanely high, which Judge's is. I believe Sano was the example used who averages 360 for his career.

 

[bellowthecat]

He does seem like a prime candidate to run high BABIPs with that ridiculous hard hit rate and only a minuscule IFFB% (2.8% this year). However the HR/FB% doesn't seem likely to stay that high. His 41.4% would best Ryan Howard's mark of 39.5% set in 2006 (Jim Thome has the career record at 27.8%). Once more fly balls start to stay in the park his BABIP will fall a bit, but are still likely to remain at elite levels. Not exactly a news flash, but what Judge is doing right now is amazing.

 

[jon abbey]

Judge is 6th in Dave Cameron's midseason trade value series, behind only Correa, Trout, Seager, Bryant and Lindor, and just ahead of Trea Turner, Rizzo, Betts and Kluber.

"If he were a few years younger, or if we had more than three months of this kind of dominance, he might rank No. 1. And long term, his size might become a durability issue: big guys have generally had health problems in MLB, and Judge is about the biggest big guy we’ve seen. But that is nitpicking. Right now, Judge looks like he’s redefined what 80 power in the majors actually is. Combined with his other skills, there’s legitimate superstar potential here. And he might have already reached it."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/

 

[Marbleheader]

It's going to be interesting to see how Aaron Judge responds to the increasing attention, distractions, PED questions, etc.

 

[jon abbey]

Definitely, although he's had a lot of that for the last couple of months already, SI cover in early May, special section of seats in the RF stands, etc. He at least is back to the local stage from the national stage of this past week, that should help a bit.

 

[foulkehampshire]

It's awesome to see guys thrive irregardless of stature like Altuve and Judge and is part of what makes this game great.

 

[jon abbey]

Judge's HR tonight off a hanging 76 MPH curveball in SEA went so high that Statcast lost track of it:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1634019383/nyysea-judge-sends-a-threerun-homer-into-orbit

Erik Boland‏Verified account @eboland11 1h1 hour ago

David Robertson on Judge HR: "It’s not fair. It’s like he's playing on a Little League field. I’ve never seen anyone hit a ball like that."

 

[threecy]

It's going to be interesting to see how Aaron Judge responds to the increasing attention, distractions, PED questions, etc.

2nd half slump...17 games, BA .169, OPS .706...will be interesting to see if he can work his way out of it.

 

[jon abbey]

Fun with small sample sizes, he has a .937 OPS in the last 11 of those 17 games. He's definitely not locked in like he was pre-break but he did homer last night and seems to maybe be snapping out of it a bit.

 

[axx]

aaand sat on Thursday. That would be strange if he ends up being a half year wonder.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

It's awesome to see guys thrive irregardless of stature like Altuve and Judge and is part of what makes this game great.

Yeah, plucky underdog Judge.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Yeah, plucky underdog Judge.

Think about how much force goes into swinging that size bat, and how much more effort it must take for Judge to adjust mid-swing. If he loses just a tick of batspeed (or is mechanically off) a gigantic sized area of strikezone outside the plate is now exploitable. I don't think his height does him that many favors, herculean strength aside.

Both Tony Clark and Richie Sexton went aged pretty fast after 30. Neither were as dense/strong as Judge though, so I guess we'll see.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Anyway, does it seem to anyone else like pitchers have decided to attack him low and inside? Maybe I've just seen a sample of his recent at bats that isn't fairly representative of things but the last several times I've seen him it looks like pitchers are going after him low and inside.

Is there any truth to that?

 

[jon abbey]

I haven't seen all of the games this week, but one factor is that the lineup around him has gotten a lot weaker (Hicks and Castro have been out for quite some time and Holliday is a shell of himself), so the pitchers seem to be nibbling around the fringe of the zone and off the plate, inside and outside, and he has been swinging a lot more at bad pitches.

 

[jon abbey]

One thing I've been keeping an eye on for a while is Judge's run at Ted Williams' alltime rookie record for most walks in a season, 107. Judge is at 79, on pace for 116.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Anyway, does it seem to anyone else like pitchers have decided to attack him low and inside? Maybe I've just seen a sample of his recent at bats that isn't fairly representative of things but the last several times I've seen him it looks like pitchers are going after him low and inside.

Is there any truth to that?

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/96917

 

[Rough Carrigan]

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/96917

Thanks.
The problem is that it's hard to infer much from those blobs. And pitchers miss their spots all the time.

 

[j44thor]

Certainly a unique season for Judge, just set the NYY record for consecutive games with a K at 25.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/96917

Well, pitchers are certainly challenging him more with the fastball on the hands, which would make sense with the length of his swing. Is that - Judge has to think about shortening his swing on the inside shit - enough to have messed with his rhythm? Probably not, but I hate contributing second half swoons to rookie walls or home run derby swings.

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

striking out 46% of AB's the last 28 games (80 AB's) to bring season % up to 37%

One has to think if he can't keep that under 40%, he turns into Joey Gallo

Gallo, on the other hand has for the first time ever (SSS of course) struck out <40% for a short period of time - using the same last 28 games, it's 39.4% and his performance reflected that. UP to 0.210 on the year with 31 HR in 314 AB's and one has to think the difference between 45-50% K's and maybe his potential to bring that number to 35% allows him to fulfill his power potential which has always been seen as greater than Judge.

One wonders if he might have been available this past off season.

 

[tims4wins]

Joey Gallo is a very interesting comp. Will be curious to see how Judge finishes this year, and begins 2018 as well

 

[jon abbey]

One wonders if he might have been available this past off season.

I was talking about him as a target for NY for much of last season, but I'm not sure he was ever really available for a reasonable price.

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

I was talking about him as a target for NY for much of last season, but I'm not sure he was ever really available for a reasonable price.

yes I remember you were pushing it hard. Props to Texas for keep playing him when he was hitting 0.190. Amazing that he is still only 23.

Way before the internet I was talking about Jim Thome to the Red Sox in 1993-94

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I wonder if sending Judge to the minors is even an option at this point. He needs to work on his swing out of the spotlight for a few games.

 

[jon abbey]

Yes, I'd say that sending the AL leader in OPS down to the minors is probably not an option at this point.

 

[glasspusher]

Jon, he only has 13 doubles. Is he not a fast runner, or anything hit hard isn't a gapper, it's gone? He's also on a pace to have 100 more strikeouts than Ted Williams in his rookie year (Ted had 64).

 

[jon abbey]

He's a solid runner, fast enough to be leading the AL in runs scored. He's definitely been in a slump since the ASB, but on the other hand, it's easy to nitpick and forget he is still a rookie, and he hasn't been through the 162 game grind before.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I wonder if sending Judge to the minors is even an option at this point. He needs to work on his swing out of the spotlight for a few games.

You just want Ellsbury playing every day. I get it.

 

[terrynever]

Just to take some heat off Judge, why not move him to the 2 hole and put Didi, this team's best hitter, in the 3 hole. Gardner, Judge, Didi ... Sanchez

Judge continues to get on base at a high rate, mainly because some pitchers still don't want to throw him a strike, regardless of the slump he is in. Gardner is a patient hitter and so is Judge. Good way to start a game. Then Didi can come up hacking, which seems to work for him.

Amazing that Didi is turning into a shortstop who can hit 25 homers in a season.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Just to take some heat off Judge, why not move him to the 2 hole and put Didi, this team's best hitter, in the 3 hole. Gardner, Judge, Didi ... Sanchez

Judge continues to get on base at a high rate, mainly because some pitchers still don't want to throw him a strike, regardless of the slump he is in. Gardner is a patient hitter and so is Judge. Good way to start a game. Then Didi can come up hacking, which seems to work for him.

Amazing that Didi is turning into a shortstop who can hit 25 homers in a season.

Didi has put on some weight, hasn't he? He was very very thin when he was with the Diamondbacks. Not as much now. Has he lost any range? - And a check at fielding bible's numbers shows him, if anything, a couple plays better than previous years, though those were not nearly as good as I would have guessed, only in the area of +4 and he's +6 now. For reference, Andrelton Simmons is regularly +20 something. And Xander was -15 last year and -12 so far this year. Somebody might screw up and give X a great big contract. I hope it's not the Sox.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

This was an eye opening stat from baseball reference:
Judge vs. power, average p/f and finesse pitchers (avg, obp, slg)
power .194/.341/.389
avg .317/.462/.593
finesse .331/.434/.772

And, power does not mean fastball speed. In their tables, power pitchers are those in the top third of the league for strikeouts plus walks. Finesse pitchers are in the bottom third of the league for strikeouts plus walks.

I wondered if that was common so I looked at the numbers of some other big hitters in the AL this year
Trout
power .396/.556/.566
avg .341/.475/.758
finesse .316/.417/.692

Altuve
power .383/.474/.654
avg .335/.394/.514
finesse .378/.427/.591

Springer
power .227/.358/.439
avg .293/.358/.592
finesse .348/.413/.627

Cano (career not just this year like the others)
power .256/.319/.408
avg .319/.368/.515
finesse .320/.362/.530

Across the entire American League, here are the splits facing power, avg or finesse pitchers:

power .222/.303/.369
avg .251/.320/.422
finesse .278/.340/.462

So, there's a tendency for everyone to do better against the finesse pitchers though perhaps not to the degree Judge is showing this year. At first I thought it was a sort of Aha! moment. I still don't think it's good but it's perhaps not so rare.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

He's a solid runner, fast enough to be leading the AL in runs scored. He's definitely been in a slump since the ASB, but on the other hand, it's easy to nitpick and forget he is still a rookie, and he hasn't been through the 162 game grind before.

It's also easy to forget that prior to this year he'd never even come close to this sort of production as a professional--he was always going to come back to earth. I could buy the power being close to what he's done, but there's no way he's going to be a ~.420 OBP guy going forward.

He'll be fine, he's obviously not the guy going through this slump, but he's obviously not the guy of the first half, either.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Looking at a couple other high strikeout total, big power guys, Mark Trumbo and Mark Reynolds, you see similar splits among at bats versus power, average rates and finesse pitchers. Worse than the AL average decline against power pitchers but not quite as bad as Judge's splits.

 

[BigMike]

He's probably not going to be a 420 OBP guy moving forward, but I would think he will be a fairly high OBP guy.

The question is will he be a Jim Thome type who can post a 270 BA, which gives him a real chance of being a 400 OBP guy, or will be be more like a Adam Dunn and hit 220, where he will still probably have a solid OBP over 350

 

[JohntheBaptist]

He's probably not going to be a 420 OBP guy moving forward, but I would think he will be a fairly high OBP guy.

I guess so but why? Didn't crack .370 in 950 AA/ AAA PAs. I don't think its a crazy notion so I'm all ears but not sure I see why.

 

[jon abbey]

We probably talked about it a few years back in this thread, but evidently he had trouble with umps punching him out on balls outside the strike zone quite a bit in the minors, especially in AAA. When he was locked in the first half of this year, his pitch recognition was remarkable and even now that he has been deeply slumping, he is still drawing plenty of walks, especially with two outs/no one on, so maybe that's what BigMike is thinking.